Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[gonnano]

G&H has been on the site today... I wonder why he/she didn't chime in?

[drmyshottyizsik]

Because he is emotionally exhausted by the other game we are in together... everyone hates him.

[Hoopla]

I'm sick and bored so I voted for the Mod,,,, but thats a nono. Also I am the Doctor

Guarentee me you're not a town player fakeclaiming doctor. Do it.

[drmyshottyizsik]

I

Claim: Doctor

I promise

[Hoopla]

I

Claim: Doctor

I promise

Okay, that is good enough for me. Thanks Shotty. You still really need to try a bit harder to help out the town, but I have a good proposal I want to put forth to the town. Here it is;

A protection-role massclaim

.

Here is the deal. We're quite likely playing in a game with a 3-mafia scum team, and on the off chance there is only 2, we should really be planning for the likely event of there being 3. In this case, we will only have three mislynches (barring a successful vig kill or stopping a scum night kill). It is far too big of a risk to waste a lynch on Shotty, without being reasonably sure he is scum. Luckily, I have a way of figuring this out - have some data;

Last 50 completed Closed 12-player Mini Normals:

Games with protection role - 43
Games without protection role - 7

What counts as a protection role? Doctor, Weak Doctor, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard, Macho Doctor, CPR Doctor, X-Shot Doctors.

Importantly, there has only been one game with TWO protection roles in it

, and that had two Macho Doctors (doctors that can't be protected, which thwarts the breaking strategy of the doctors cross-protecting each other).

This is why a protection-role massclaim is beneficial. It is highly likely that there is only one protection role, and if everyone else claims 'not a protection role' or 'a protection role', we can figure out with relatively strong conviction if Shotty is lying or not. If nobody claims they are a protection role, then this makes Shotty very likely to be the actual doctor, and he will soak up the scum night kill/roleblock, which frees up other PR's and fixes the problem of the VI distracting the town.

If someone else claims a protection role, we should consider this a counterclaim, and lynch Shotty. If Shotty flips town, then we lynch the counterclaimer. Why? Because in 50 games, there has been only one game with two protection roles, and those two roles were not traditional doctors anyway. Scum already know if Shotty is truthful or not, so there is nothing at stake here for the town. We're not giving scum extra information in order to execute this play which gives us a very strong understanding of Shotty's likelihood of being truthful or not.

What does everyone think of this?

[drmyshottyizsik]

Sounds good to me. but maybe you should lynch the counter claimer first and if he's a doctor than lynch me.

[Hoopla]

Sounds good to me. but maybe you should lynch the counter claimer first and if he's a doctor than lynch me.

Why would we lynch a counterclaimer? That goes to assume the counterclaimer is lying, but any potential fake-counterclaimer has no incentive to do so, if it guarentees their lynch today or tomorrow, rather than staying quiet and likely living longer.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

meh. Sounds like PR fishing. If, statistically, we're dealing with only 1 protection role, why give the scum any more info?

[gonnano]

I'm on board for the protection role massclaim, but I'm not sure if I would be willing to lynch shotty straight away in the event of a counter... I'll have to think about that some more. For example, why wouldn't the counter claim have already happened? If Shotty is scum, I'm sure the real protection role would have had no problem convincing everyone to vote for shotty a few pages back.

I don't understand Vel's point about PR fishing -- basically Hoopla's massclaim idea amounts to saying, "If there's a real doc out there, they should counter claim now" I don't see much harm in it, and here's why:

There are two cases -- counter claim and no counter claim. Both end with a dead doctor, but if we get a counter claim, we also have a confirmed scum. It's at least worth trying to get a counter claim, although I personally don't think we're going to get one. I'll go ahead and say that I don't have a protection role.

[Hoopla]

meh. Sounds like PR fishing. If, statistically, we're dealing with only 1 protection role, why give the scum any more info?

Statistically it is HIGHLY likely the town has ONE protection role. The only way we give away information is if we catch Shotty fakeclaiming.

If Shotty is town, scum know our protection role is Shotty. The town doesn't know this currently.
If Shotty is scum, it is true we are possibly sacrificing our real protection role to 'confirm' Shotty as scum, but this puts us in no worse position than we are in now if Shotty

is

a doctor. Except we now have the bonus of having a scum caught Day 1.

The only way this backfires is if there is ZERO or TWO town protection roles. This only counts as rolefishing if Shotty's claim is false, Vel. And if the sacrifice of our protection role 'proves' Shotty as scum, I'd like to do it. Doctors are not game-breaking roles for town. A Day 1 scum lynch is much more preferable. And then conversely, if nobody counters Shotty's claim, this at least 'proves' he is town and gives the town the same information scum already has.

[Hoopla]

I'm on board for the protection role massclaim, but I'm not sure if I would be willing to lynch shotty straight away in the event of a counter... I'll have to think about that some more. For example, why wouldn't the counter claim have already happened? If Shotty is scum, I'm sure the real protection role would have had no problem convincing everyone to vote for shotty a few pages back.

Maybe because they didn't think it was the right idea, and maybe because it wasn't a direct match too. A potential Jailkeeper or Bodyguard might be out there not counterclaiming because it wasn't

completely

contradictory. I'm here to squash this concept.

If someone countered right now, we must lynch Shotty, because there is such a low chance of there being TWO protection roles.

If nobody counters Shotty, it isn't as conclusive as the other possible result, but it is a strong chance he is town. I think this is the likely scenario in my eyes, and if this happens, we don't give the scum any information, as they already know who our protection role (Shotty) is.

[Hoopla]

I'm not a protection role either.

Everyone else, protection role = Doctor, Weak Doctor, Macho Doctor, CPR Doctor, 1/2-Shot Doctor, Jailkeeper, Bodyguard or anything else with it's prime function being PREVENTING a kill.

If you are a protection role, do not claim the specific role.

[gonnano]

Methinks Vel just picked up a couple of scumpoints.

[drmyshottyizsik]

ME Thinks Too

[gonnano]

Hi Good and Honest! I see you

[gonnano]

oh, and Shotty would have picked up a couple of scumpoints just now if he had any room left.

[drmyshottyizsik]

((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((( sad face
but wait!

CLAIM: AWESOME!!

[drmyshottyizsik]

PS Highlight the black box

[gonnano]

I'm posting just to say that I'm emotionally drained by the other game I'm playing with drmyshottyizsik (no, it has nothing to do with drmyshottyizsik's behaviour). I don't know when I'll post here again...

I notice that it doesn't exactly say that the emotional drain is the

reason

for limited posting... This could be interpreted as

Unrelated Statement. I'll be lurking for a while... kthx.

Whenever G&H gets back I would be very interested to see a response to my post #149

[Hoopla]

oh, and Shotty would have picked up a couple of scumpoints just now if he had any room left.

It's important to remember that if nobody does counterclaim, it is quite likely he is town though, and should be treated as such. Such a public recognition of trust also forces scum into killing off our VI too, when the scum-strategy of letting him live for WIFOM and possible mislynch purposes could have been a very attractive option. We have now prevented this possibility by highlighting this either/or scenario with Shotty.

[gonnano]

apparently my facetious and/or dry and/or not funny sense of humor doesn't go over very well... I'll have to start using joke tags like a good humor-handicapped person should </joke>

[Good and Honest]

Well, I'm feeling better now.

Elleran, I agree about the dialogue between Hoopla and AGar at the beginning of the game - it seemed strange to me, too. And mostly some of AGar's actions. I see that Kid Know Nothing has also brought this up and AGar still hasn't commented on it, so now I'll directly ask: AGar, what was your purpose when you were trying to prove to Hoopla that you might not have read that post by Amished which mentioned Hoopla's "Miller" claim?

gonnano, your questions are quite interesting. My intentions are that when I say something, it's going to be true. That doesn't mean I'm going to say absolutely everything that's on my mind. To better understand you, I think you should give me an example of "a half-truth with the intent of deceiving people" and "an untruth without the intent to deceive" - I must admit I haven't really thought about such nuances.

drmyshottyizsik, I'll also suggest that if you're not interested in this game, maybe it's better to replace out?

drmyshottyizsik's behaviour continues to not surprise me. All these unpredictable actions that you're seeing are already "predictably unpredictable" for me. I'm not even going to take into consideration drmyshottyizsik's role claims. If something seems unusual, it's that in this game drmyshottyizsik has made almost no comments. But that can definitely be explained by a lack of interest. I also think all these sudden votes are a result of boredom. Still, drmyshottyizsik, if you're willing to continue to play, why don't you share some thoughts and observations on what has happened? Also, it would be nice if you expand on what little you have already said. What are the reasons you suspect AlmasterGM... or have you already changed your mind about that?

I have already said that I don't approve of people discussing how to get rid of drmyshottyizsik. This is quite an easy target. I don't see what huge problems drmyshottyizsik can cause. I don't think drmyshottyizsik is really going to be able to influence anyone much (sorry, drmyshottyizsik). The only danger might come from these sudden votes - but the players here should now be aware of this. So I'm not impressed with those who have been most eager to get rid of drmyshottyizsik - Zachrulez and, to a smaller extent, AlmasterGM. On the other hand, I find it good that some players haven't supported at all any drastic measures against drmyshottyizsik - like redtail896 and Vel-Rahn Koon (who has recently stated that drmyshottyizsik should just be ignored). gonnano is against getting rid of drmyshottyizsik - but that's because gonnano believes drmyshottyizsik's "Doctor" claim. gonnano, if drmyshottyizsik is not a "Doctor", would your position change?

Elleran, I can perfectly accept your explanation for unvoting Hoopla. However, it's exactly because there is nothing shocking about that explanation that I'm wondering why you wanted to keep it to yourself and only reveal it on Day 2?

There is also something about your response to redtail896 that confuses me. You say: "At the time I posted the first post, I was thoroughly convinced that Hoopla was lying and was a scum who simply claimed for protection". However, at the time you posted that post (where you stated that you supported lynching liars), Hoopla had already unclaimed. Why would you think at that point that Hoopla wanted protection?

I looked at Newbie 957, which Hoopla linked to. From what I saw, Elleran was lynched for being inconsistent and making mistakes... So maybe this is just typical for Elleran.

There is also another remarkable thing. In Newbie 957, there was a player with an unpredictable behaviour who claimed to be a mafioso at one stage. Elleran seemed to believe that that player was actually an innocent townsperson (and that was the case indeed). In our current game we have another player with an unpredictable behaviour - drmyshottyizsik. And, even more curiously, drmyshottyizsik also claimed to be a mafioso. Elleran's reaction was "I don't know what to make of this". I think that, especially considering the situation with the aforementioned player in Newbie 957, the fact that Elleran didn't attack drmyshottyizsik speaks well for Elleran.

Hoopla, you say it's likely that there is a "Mafia Roleblocker" in this game. I know you love statistics about the game of Mafia so are you basing this supposition on statistics (and if so, would you share them?) or do you have other reasons to think so?

ConfidAnon, I'm puzzled by your latest post. You're not stating much in it; don't you have any other thoughts on the game you'd like to share? And is it just a coincidence that this latest post of yours is a reply to gonnano - the player you voted previously to "add another name to the discussion"?

Now I have seen the latest developments. Hoopla, I really don't like your plan, mainly because I find it hard to believe what drmyshottyizsik says. I think it's very possible that drmyshottyizsik is an innocent townsperson but NOT a "Doctor"...

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you say it's likely that there is a "Mafia Roleblocker" in this game. I know you love statistics about the game of Mafia so are you basing this supposition on statistics (and if so, would you share them?) or do you have other reasons to think so?

Not as conclusive as the doctor statistics, and I must note, the last time I checked this piece of information, I only looked at 3:9 Closed set-ups. These are by far the most common set-ups in Little Italy, so they are still relevant, but remember this is only one segment of the pie;

Last 40 completed 3:9 Closed Mini Normal Set-ups:

With a Roleblocker - 24
Without a Roleblocker - 16

---

As for your concern about my idea, yes it requires trust in Shotty, which is why I followed up on this twice. You'll note every other fleeting moment of madness has been previously undone/changed/forgotten, so the recurring pattern makes me feel a little more secure. The way I see it is, IF Shotty is fakeclaiming as town, then this is already a very poisonous scenario for town that will fuck us over grandly (whichever way we play it - massclaim or not). We may as well take a risk (though it isn't as much a risk as you make out, I think), and opt for a play/scenario that gives us some reward if Shotty isn't being a total ball bag.

[gonnano]

gonnano, if drmyshottyizsik is not a "Doctor", would your position change?

Yes, because then he would be scum. If he is town and not a Doctor, he would unclaim.

Good and Honest: to clarify the half-truths with the intent to deceive thing -- would you be willing to say something like "I like ice cream. Vote Hoopla." with the intent of having us believe that you are voting Hoopla because you like ice cream? This is a nonsensical example but I think you can see what I'm getting at.

An untruth without the intent to deceive would be something like saying "Everyone knows that there are 24 days in a week -- where do you think the expression 24/7 comes from?" with the understanding that your statement is obviously false and is intended as a joke (a really bad one, in this case). I don't see you ever using this one, but I was curious about what you thought about it.

Also, would you be willing to participate in a role-specific claim like doc/not doc? I'm speaking generally here, not necessarily about this particular game. I don't think it would break your playstyle, because even if you claimed not doc it doesn't guarantee that you are scum.

I'd really like to know who you would vote for if you had to right now. Really, we're only taking it on faith that the mod didn't decide to load us up with a bunch of mafia, so you're going to have to anticipate the possibility that you will have to vote.

Hoopla: reading those statistics makes me feel like ((christmas morning + birthday)^Summer vacation). Not joking. Please insert them any time that they occur to you whether they are relevant or not.

[ConfidAnon]

So leik I'm gonnna make a substantial post today.

Sorry, I've been busy.