Mini #1007 (Game Over)


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Post Post #375 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:26 am

Post by Zachrulez »

KKN's posts having content would separate him.

ConfidAnon I also want to take another look at in light of his misrep of me from the previous day trying to characterize me as "accidentally hammering" Elleran in conjunction with his overall activity level. The displayed lack of attention to the game is alarming.
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Post Post #376 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:29 am

Post by Zachrulez »

redtail896 wrote:I encourage everybody to read my last post from yesterday, but here's the summary I want to get across: in my opinion, G&H's refusal to participate in the massclaim, while anti-town, is not scummy. In fact, I almost consider it quite the opposite; if s/he was scum, why not just participate and claim not a PR?
You can easily flip this around and argue it the other way. If G&H was town, why not just participate and claim one way or the other?
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Post Post #377 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:41 am

Post by ConfidAnon »

Zachrulez wrote:KKN's posts having content would separate him.

ConfidAnon I also want to take another look at in light of his misrep of me from the previous day trying to characterize me as "accidentally hammering" Elleran in conjunction with his overall activity level. The displayed lack of attention to the game is alarming.
Holy contradiction Batman!

Sentence one, you say I tried to misrepresent you and caracterize you as "accidentially hammering." This implies an intentional action.
Sentence two, you say I lacked attention to the game. Exactly what I said, it was a mistake.

How can a mistake be an intentional misrepresentation?
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Post Post #378 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:43 am

Post by Zachrulez »

You're assuming that your claim that it was a mistake should be taken at face value.
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Post Post #379 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:47 am

Post by ConfidAnon »

Either way, my point still stands. The only way it could have been a displayed lack of attention is if I honestly made a mistake. In your post, you attacked me of both intentionally misrepresenting you and unintentionally making a mistake.
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Post Post #380 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:49 am

Post by Zachrulez »

ConfidAnon wrote:Either way, my point still stands. The only way it could have been a displayed lack of attention is if I honestly made a mistake. In your post, you attacked me of both intentionally misrepresenting you and unintentionally making a mistake.
Fine, it's not a misrep, but it's still scummy.

Why as town would you throw that kind of accusation out there without verifying it?
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Post Post #381 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 10:51 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Plus the fact that you stuck with the vote even after your most specific and powerful point was discredited.
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Post Post #382 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:17 am

Post by ConfidAnon »

Zachrulez wrote:Plus the fact that you stuck with the vote even after your most specific and powerful point was discredited.
I didn't verify it because I honestly thought you hammered.

Without the hammer point, my reasoning becomes: "Lots of fluffy one-liners, hopping between the AlmasterGM and drmyshottyizsik wagons, and sliding onto the Elleran wagon to put him at L-1."

Reason enough to stick with it.
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Post Post #383 (ISO) » Tue Aug 03, 2010 11:20 am

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

I protected hoopla
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Post Post #384 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 12:11 am

Post by Hoopla »

Vel, what is your opinion on bandwagon analysis and it's effectiveness? How do you view the make-up of the final Day 1 vote count and it's participants? Almaster was a competing wagon for quite a while during Day 1 - do you think that makes him more likely to be scum, as his wagon was in competition with Elleran, but lost?

Everyone else - this game is going far too slow for my liking. I'd really like everyone to pick up the pace and place a vote in their next post so I can analyse where everyone is currently standing (G&H especially). Deadlines are two weeks, so one post every two/three days isn't going to cut it.
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Post Post #385 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 3:15 am

Post by Vel-Rahn Koon »

Hoopla wrote:Vel, what is your opinion on bandwagon analysis and it's effectiveness?
I'm not sure it will be overly helpful this early in the game, but combined with voting patterns and other markers it can be very helpful. I don't think any one thing can stand on its own though.
How do you view the make-up of the final Day 1 vote count and it's participants? Almaster was a competing wagon for quite a while during Day 1 - do you think that makes him more likely to be scum, as his wagon was in competition with Elleran, but lost?
The last two votes are a wash for me, as they were done to secure a lynch. Because of this view, I REALLY don't like CA's attempt to use it against Zach. The other stuff he's got against Zach is fine, but I'm not ok with that point. I have to do an analysis to get anything further for you. I know that we only have two weeks and I agree that we need to pick things up, but I have a presentation to give tomorrow, so I'm focusing on that for now.

WRT the alamaster wagon, see my views from yesterday. Especially in light of the AGar flip it tends to reinforce my view that it was a Town v. Town "tunneling spat".
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Post Post #386 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:25 am

Post by drmyshottyizsik »

Vote: Zachy poo
#freeShotty
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Post Post #387 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 11:33 am

Post by AlmasterGM »

Oh boy, only a short way into Day 2 and there's already votes on my two top suspects? It's like Christmas in the summer.

Vote: Zachrulez


I 100% agree that Zach was scummy as hell yesterday (and OH HEY, I was saying that over and over of yesterday buuut nobody cared) and his arguments today against ConfidAnon are bad as well. In addition to the contradiction, ConfidAnon really has nothing to gain from misrepping the hammer vote (like that isn't going to be fact checked), so trying to use that as offense against CA is just silly.

HOWEVER, If G&H doesn't get in here and fucking wow my socks off with some original analysis and a VOTE, then he can die die die. I completely disagree with redtail - the refusal to claim has nothing to do with town vs scum motivation because it does nothing for him regardless of his side ... so it's clearly just stupidity, which has nothing to do with alignment. And if you put that issue asside, you're left with a refusal to vote and a handful of obsolete, obfuscating text wall posts. Which is scummy.

ALSO SHOTTY JUST BECAUSE YOU ARE PROBTOWN DOESN'T GIVE YOU A LICENSE TO BE A USELESS MORON. PLAY THE DAMN GAME YOU SIGNED UP FOR.
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Post Post #388 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 2:16 pm

Post by Kid Know Nothing »

Vote: Good and Honest


Does your playstyle mean you can't claim? If you can explain that to me, I might be okay with your refusal to claim. However, the vote is standing for the absolute lack of total content overall yesterday. For a majority of the day, you went without saying much. And while you post at length, posting once every few days like that really doesn't cut it. Especially since I didn't really find anything very helpful with your wall of text.

Who are you currently suspicious of?
What was your view of the wagon yesterday, in hindsight?
Your views of Shotty's claim?
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Post Post #389 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 4:09 pm

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Kid Know Nothing wrote:Does your playstyle mean you can't claim? If you can explain that to me, I might be okay with your refusal to claim.
What? Why would that be OK? If his playstyle ALSO meant he couldn't vote or post content, would that be OK?
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Post Post #390 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 5:16 pm

Post by Kid Know Nothing »

AlmasterGM wrote:
Kid Know Nothing wrote:Does your playstyle mean you can't claim? If you can explain that to me, I might be okay with your refusal to claim.
What? Why would that be OK? If his playstyle ALSO meant he couldn't vote or post content, would that be OK?
No. But I've played with people who stick to a never lie policy. I can understand the challenge someone would take in playing that way but there are some pretty obvious flaws in it. Such as asking Day 1 "Are you scum?"

Refusal to claim could be G&H's answer to that all around, and while I can understand it as scummy [and I absolutely wouldn't let it slide completely], I can also see how it would fit into G&H's play. In a No-Lying playstyle, claiming can be playstyle breaking. If G&H says that he never claims, period, I would understand.


A no-lying play style doesn't mean that they can't vote or post content though.

Once G&H has posted and answered, I'll explain more.
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Post Post #391 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:14 pm

Post by Hoopla »

I have a couple of declarative statements I'm going to make. Firstly, ONE of Almaster/Zachrulez is scum. It is very likely we are playing in a 3:9 set-up, and if so, it is even more likely there are either ONE or TWO scum on Elleran's lynch wagon. These conclusions are slightly dependent on each other, but I have a solid data and theories behind these assumptions that I am going to share now. Appologies for the self-indulgent rambling, but I feel it's important to understand my mindset when I try to explain my tells;


Scumhunting to any degree of accuracy is an elusive quality. If this doesn't gel with your perspective of scumhunting and mafia in general, the rest of my post will be hard to swallow, because it lives largely under the assumption that most of the behavioural tells you use are silly catchphrases, parroted when something even remotely applicable presents an opportunity to be labeled in such a manner. This might be a bleak outlook on a game we all spend a lot of our leisure time on, as it is truly hard to tell if you are improving and how accurate any tell you have used is. Running a race, playing chess or any other game gives you an opportunity to trace development, with time improvement, or improvement against the same opponents. But with mafia, you are thrown into a blender, shaken up into a random team that you don't know, with the game revolving around figuring out the teams. It is a chaotic mess, with hidden motives muddying the water, making it very hard to quantatively analyse how effective one of your tells is. In this sense, mafia largely lives in the realm of the subjective, with popular ideas and concepts latched on to depending on perceived accuracy. This is very easily prone to error, as one persons concept of a scumtell largely differs from mine or yours, and most importantly it is largely formulated from the 'this just feels right' school of thought, even if it is never acknowledged as gut and paraded as something more definitive.

The beauty of Mini Normal's is we have a large reservoir of previously run games operating under very similar variables, that we can actually track patterns amongst the chaos. In a sense, this is what our mind does even if it is purely subconcious and we don't acknowledge or understand it - we filter the noise, searching for patterns in behaviour that uncover motives and hopefully alignment. Spotting patterns in behaviour is really the only way we can do this. If I used a justification, painting someone as scum, but acknowledging no scum has ever done this before - it won't be a popular idea that the town will follow. The validity of a tell hangs on the necessity of it happening before.

So, if we have this reservoir of games just ripe with patterns to be detected and followed, why not use it more? These patterns provide deeper understanding of the actual odds of something being true - which without is largely guesswork and theory-based. Granted, there are definitely limits to what this data can do, because it naturally seeks to be objective in a game largely subjective. Bandwagon and vote analysis is it's strongest suit, as position on wagon, and make-up of the amount of scum on a wagon is objective and trackable. Let me share some of this with you;

Amount of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1
Town
Lynch (43 games):

0 Scum - 1 (2.1%)
1 Scum - 13 (27.7%)
2 Scum - 18 (38.3%)
3 Scum - 15 (31.9%)


This statistic showcases how much influence scum have on Day 1 bandwagons. This is only for when a town player is lynched, of course, but it is very illuminating when you consider the
actual odds
of the amount of scum being on a D1 town wagon if it were random;

Actual odds
of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1
Town
Lynch:

0 Scum - (2.4%)
1 Scum - (25.5%)
2 Scum - (50.9%)
3 Scum - (21.2%)


Note how often scum dogpile onto a town wagon with the whole team, yet see how much less likely it is if it's random. It's quite fascinating, and there are generally two patterns that you can look for when trying to analyse this trend. First, if there is little to no competition for this D1 wagon, it is likelier to be pushed by 2 or 3 scum, often on a player that is identified as weak, and has a habit of incriminating themself. The second way to pick three-scum scum on a D1 wagon, is the competing wagon turns out to be on scum. In these scenarios, scum have a vested interest in propelling a town wagon which spawns likelier chances of a scum dogpile on it.

Applying this data and theory to what our Day 1 has produced, it is quite clear that Almaster was the competing wagon for a lot of Day 1, and most importantly, later in the Day when it counts. This vote count is particularly insightful;

VOTECOUNT
(As of post 236)

3 -
Elleran
- Hoopla, gonnano, redtail896 (L-4)
3 -
AlmasterGM
- Agar, Vel-Rahn Koon, Zachrulez (L-5)
1 -
gonanno
- ConfidAnon (L-6)
1 -
Zachrulez
- AlmasterGM (L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Kid Know Nothing, Elleran, drmyshottyizsik


Look how delicately poised this race is. This is the exact point where Zach votes for Almaster to bring him level with Elleran. It is at this point the race could go either way, making the next few votes particularly crucial in the swaying the verdict.

9 posts later, Almaster joins Elleran's wagon tilting the count to 4-3. The something strange happens; AGar and Shotty jump on Elleran in consecutive posts to take it to 6-3. Normally this would ring scum-speedwagon alarm bells, but AGar is confirmed town and Shotty is very likely town. Almaster's self-preserving vote to put Elleran back in the lead is particularly weak, and the next page KKN and ConfidAnon both vote Almaster to bring him back into the equation;

VOTECOUNT


5 -
Elleran
- gonnano, redtail896, AlmasterGM, AGar, drmyshottyizsik (L-2)
4 -
AlmasterGM
- Vel-Rahn Koon, Zachrulez, Kid Know Nothing, ConfidAnon (L-3)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Elleran, Hoopla


This is very significant if Almaster is scum, because it paints KKN and ConfidAnon is a very town light, as surely either of them being scum has no motivation to push Almaster's wagon at this point when a cheap Elleran lynch was readily available. Lets look at the final vote count now;

End of Day 1 Vote Count


7 -
Elleran
- gonnano, redtail896, AlmasterGM,
AGar, drmyshottyizsik
, Zachrulez,
Hoopla

2 -
AlmasterGM
- Kid Know Nothing, ConfidAnon (L-5)
1 -
Hoopla
-
Elleran
(L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Vel-Rahn Koon


Green equals town obviously. My name is green because this is true from my perspective. Filter it out if you disagree with it (pre-emptively answering this point before someone brings it up).


From my perspective, it is highly unlikely there are three scum on this Elleran wagon, mostly because three-scum D1 lynches often have scum sitting in the back-end positions, and usually only happens if the competing wagon is scum, or there is no competing wagon. I'm going to flesh this one out from the perspective of Almaster being scum and town, because his alignment is critical in this analysis.

If Almaster is
scum:
It means for KKN and ConfidAnon to be scum, they would have been willing to unnecessarily bus or risk bussing when a free Elleran lynch was on offer, which is a much more attractive option for them. But if Almaster is scum, I seriously do not see why Almaster's wagon would have competed so well, especially when the late push on Elleran was from two townies (one confirmed/one likely). Some might argue Zach could be this late scum, but you'll note he also voted Almaster to take it to 3-3, which is also unnecessary. If Almaster is scum, we have just gone a long way to winning this game, because a lot of people have proven to be unlikely to be scum with him.

If Almaster is
town:
It brings ConfidAnon/KKN/Zach back into the equation to be scum, which is a much more believable scenario in my opinion. It also changes the vote-count to this;

End of Day 1 Vote Count


7 -
Elleran
- gonnano, redtail896,
AlmasterGM
,
AGar, drmyshottyizsik
, Zachrulez,
Hoopla

2 -
AlmasterGM
- Kid Know Nothing, ConfidAnon (L-5)
1 -
Hoopla
-
Elleran
(L-6)

Not Voting - Good and Honest, Vel-Rahn Koon


Which makes the one/two scum on the wagon theory fit in a little bit better and also incriminates Zach (and I suppose me) at the back of the pack there. Though, in my defense, I was on a lot earlier and unvoted which sacrifices my true position/influence in the wagon. It is hard to see three scum on this wagon regardless of Almaster's alignment, though. Which means if there is scum off the wagon, eliminating ConfidAnon/KKN from that already small pool is very difficult to do. This makes me believe Almaster is town. It makes far more sense, as him being scum makes it very odd play by any KKN/CA/Zach scum, and all three of them being town is hard to swallow.

TL;DR? Conclusions;


- ONE or TWO scum on Elleran's lynch wagon.
- Almaster is likely town.
- If Almaster is scum, Zach/KKN/CA are likely town.
- Zach is likely scum if Almaster is town.
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Post Post #392 (ISO) » Wed Aug 04, 2010 8:16 pm

Post by Hoopla »

KKN, what do you make of this Zach wagon? Good idea, or no?
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Post Post #393 (ISO) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 12:52 am

Post by Good and Honest »

I would have posted less than ten minutes after the moment Espeonage closed the thread... For my standards that wasn't "too long". Anyway, I'll start with the things I wanted to say then.

I'm really disappointed with the reactions towards my post #311. I hoped the thoughts I shared would lead to more discussion... Instead, many people concentrated solely on the first paragraph where I refused to participate. At least thank you to those of you who answered my questions.

Some of you asked why I didn't object to Hoopla's plan earlier. I actually did - at the end of my post #221, soon after the plan was originally presented. However, whether I approved of the plan or not has nothing to do with the fact that I refused to participate in the mass claim.

As I have said, I intend to always be honest when playing a game of Mafia. So, in general, I won't reveal what my role in a particular game is. In our current game, I was only supposed to say whether I'm a "Doctor" (or something similar) or not - but that still has something to do with my role. I have to say it - I don't plan to NEVER reveal my role. In fact, I can think of special situations when I'll do it. This is also my answer to Hoopla's question at the end of Day 1 - that will really depend on the situation.

It might also be a question of principles - I want to reveal my role when the stimulus comes from the inside (i.e., when I decide that I'm willing to do it in a special situation) and not from the outside (i.e., when someone asks me about my role or there is a mass claim).

So, as you can see, my refusal to participate has nothing to do with our current game.

Some of you have also commented on the fact that I haven't voted so far. In my very first post in this game, I explained that I have a specific playstyle and gave you a link to my first game on this site, where I explain it in details. It looks like not many of you have bothered to check that link (at least gonnano did and I appreciate that). I'm only going to vote in a game of Mafia if the town can't win without my vote. So far, I have never voted on this forum. If the rules made it obligatory to vote, I wouldn't have registered here at all.

As I have stated in all of my games on this site, I realize that my playstyle might make the game less enjoyable for some players. So, if you don't like my playstyle, I have no problems if you vote for me.

I have to say I find something intriguing. After my post #311, the players who announced willingness to lynch me because of my refusal to participate were exactly the ones whose actions I had said I wasn't happy with (although AGar has since been shown to be an innocent townsperson)...

Hoopla, you say I have commented on "dated events" - if there are remarkable things that I want to discuss, does it matter when in the chronology of the game they have happened? I still want to know why you were sure that AGar would bring up your "Miller" claim.

I don't like how, before I refused to participate in the mass claim, Hoopla was so eager to quickly lynch Elleran. Especially since it was Hoopla who linked to Newbie 957, in which, as I explained, Elleran was a "Townie" and showed a similar behaviour to the one in our current game. Hoopla, if what got Elleran lynched in Newbie 957 didn't affect your willingness to lynch Elleran here, what was the point of bringing up Newbie 957 at all?

Let's also look at the way Hoopla's focus initially went on Elleran. Elleran said: "Hoopla, your tactic will undoubtedly attract townie power roles to you now that you unclaimed. I'm not so convinced your breadcrumb tactic. That could have been planned whether you were a town or scum". Hoopla's reply: "Sounds like scum trying to shoo the PR's into the corner on dear old Hoopla, so it stays off him. The point of the claim was to generate information in the day, you know, the only thing most of us townies can actually control". I find the reaction in the first sentence strong.

Then there is the quick succession of votes for Elleran on page 10. AGar is an innocent townsperson and drmyshottyizsik does such things all the time. But what about AlmasterGM? I'm not happy with the words AlmasterGM used in post #245. AlmasterGM, why did you actually vote for Elleran?

I'm glad that, after in post #311 I asked Zachrulez and ConfidAnon to share observations on each other, they have done it at the beginning of Day 2... However, that's also a little worrying. Maybe their interactions now are a result exactly of realizing that their lack of interactions on Day 1 is noteworthy?

I also find it curious that ConfidAnon and Zachrulez are both mentioning each other's not doing much during Day 1 when that seems to be true for both...

Vel-Rahn Koon, I have a question about your post #331. You say there "The most important point I want to make is that I feel that AGM's explanation makes sense to me and consequently I am removing my vote"... but you don't actually unvote. Was there any reason for that?

Also, you state this about ConfidAnon: "I think CA seemed to drift through the game as well yesterday". What would you say about Zachrulez in that regard? Do you think Zachrulez "drifted through the game" on Day 1?

ConfidAnon, do you have any observations on gonnano you'd like to share? And if so, did your actions towards gonnano on Day 1 help you achieve those observations?

gonnano, what would you say about ConfidAnon's behaviour towards you on Day 1?

Hoopla's latest statistics post is very interesting to read but, in the end, such analyses just show what may be more or less likely - as proven by the conclusions at the end. And more likely doesn't necessarily equate true. However, that post did bring my attention to a couple of things.

ConfidAnon, when you voted for AlmasterGM on Day 1, you said you really didn't like the quick succession of three votes for Elleran on page 10. However, you didn't explain why you voted particularly for the first of the three players participating in that succession.

Hoopla, I don't really understand this point of yours:

"Which makes the one/two scum on the wagon theory fit in a little bit better and also incriminates Zach (and I suppose me) at the back of the pack there. Though, in my defense, I was on a lot earlier and unvoted which sacrifices my true position/influence in the wagon"

You were the first to concentrate on Elleran and actively encouraged other people to do the same - you even stated at one point "Also, more people need to be paying attention to Elleran. Have a look, you won't be disappointed". Later you were ready to lynch Elleran as soon as the mass claim finishes. So your influence regarding the attention/votes for Elleran is big - and I don't see how the fact that you unvoted at some stage changes this.

Kid Know Nothing, it's a pity that what I have written hasn't been helpful for you. I hope other players have found it helpful. I don't really take into consideration drmyshottyizsik's "Doctor" claim. drmyshottyizsik made it out of boredom. As I have explained, whether that claim is true or not, I consider drmyshottyizsik relatively harmless.

However, drmyshottyizsik, I'll still be happy to read any thoughts you might have about this game.
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Post Post #394 (ISO) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 1:37 am

Post by Hoopla »

Good and Honest wrote: Hoopla's latest statistics post is very interesting to read but, in the end, such analyses just show what may be more or less likely - as proven by the conclusions at the end. And more likely doesn't necessarily equate true. However, that post did bring my attention to a couple of things.
There is almost nothing in this game that can be universally true - even a cop guilty can be false through many different ways. The amount of times anything is 100% is a lot less than most people actually realise. This game is purely about probabilities and searching for things that improve those probabilities a bit more in your favour.

As for your playstyle, I'm going to come out and say it is greedy, self-indulgent and will inherently damage towns and you are absolutely oblivious to that, which makes it even more toxic. Just think, if the whole town played like you, or even just one or two players did, that is another two slots we can't get information from. Because you prefer giving commentary rather than opinions and almost never vote, there are very few ways to read you and more than one of you would be detrimental to the town, because we're basically playing with all these empty slots.

Take a game of Prisoner's Dilemma - where mutual altruism is the best result for all parties involved. You can occasionally defect and not be altruistic and gain an advantage at the expense of others. But it is mutually detrimental if all parties defect. But defecting requires players being altruistic in the first place, otherwise there are no players to defect from.

I deem your play a form of defection, as we are all putting ourselves out there to share our opinions of the game in an attempt to hunt and catch scum, and it is in this act of altruism,
we
play the game. It is this act of trying to lynch players we think are scum (or faking this if you're scum) that makes our motivations clearer, and makes ourselves readable. You are rejecting this concept, wanting to sit back and not vote or not claim or not tell us who your suspects are, which makes you nigh on impossible to read. And if the town was filled with more of you, that would be akin to mass-defection where
nobody
benefits, with everyone sitting around babbling inane bullshit that goes in circles.

Are you endorsing this playstyle if others were contemplating adopting it? Would you encourage them? Surely you must realise that any more of people like you in a game would not work. So, what gives you the right to leech off everyone in this game and play this way when it helps NO ONE?
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Post Post #395 (ISO) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 1:40 am

Post by Hoopla »

Another question for G&H: why should I answer any of your questions in the future? It's not like you're going to do anything with my answer.
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Post Post #396 (ISO) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 2:27 am

Post by Zachrulez »

Good and Honest wrote:
As I have said, I intend to always be honest when playing a game of Mafia.
So, in general, I won't reveal what my role in a particular game is. In our current game, I was only supposed to say whether I'm a "Doctor" (or something similar) or not - but that still has something to do with my role. I have to say it - I don't plan to NEVER reveal my role. In fact, I can think of special situations when I'll do it. This is also my answer to Hoopla's question at the end of Day 1 - that will really depend on the situation.
If you take the bolded as an honest assessment of the kind of player you are, there is a clear scum motivation for you to refuse to claim.
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Post Post #397 (ISO) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 3:33 am

Post by Vel-Rahn Koon »

@G&H: no reason, I simply forgot to unvote. Now a question for you:

If this is true,
G&H wrote:
I would have posted less than ten minutes after the moment Espeonage closed the thread
... For my standards that wasn't "too long". Anyway, I'll start with the things I wanted to say then.
then that means that most of this was written 5 days ago or so. Why did it take you more than 48 hours after the game opened for Day 2 to post this?
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Post Post #398 (ISO) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 4:31 am

Post by ConfidAnon »

Hoopla - Nice analysis . . . but all it led you to believe was that AlmasterGM is probably town? I suppose it will be useful on later days, but right now it kind of seems like information over analysis.
Good And Honest wrote:ConfidAnon, do you have any observations on gonnano you'd like to share? And if so, did your actions towards gonnano on Day 1 help you achieve those observations?
Not in particular right now. I have already stated that I didn't learn much from the gonnano vote.
Good And Honest wrote:ConfidAnon, when you voted for AlmasterGM on Day 1, you said you really didn't like the quick succession of three votes for Elleran on page 10. However, you didn't explain why you voted particularly for the first of the three players participating in that succession.
Three slide on rapid votes is suspicious. However, AlmasterGM was the summier of the three. I know that him posting the first vote isn't as bad as say, the third of the set, but his vote was still the fourth on the wagon.

I also approve of Hoopla's rant.
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Post Post #399 (ISO) » Thu Aug 05, 2010 4:52 am

Post by Hoopla »

ConfidAnon wrote:Hoopla - Nice analysis . . . but all it led you to believe was that AlmasterGM is probably town? I suppose it will be useful on later days, but right now it kind of seems like information over analysis.
Almaster's alignment is absolutely crucial in the production of future bandwagon analysis. I've linked several players to him, and though I know my data is sound, the theorems I extrapolate from this data feel very solid too. There is no way there were three scum on that Day 1 wagon if Almaster is town, and that means we can effectively use the Day 1 lynch wagon as a divider for two pools. A pool for those
on
the wagon and a pool for those
off
the wagon, which makes process of elimination style cases increasingly more accurate if we can limit the possibilities.

I'm confident enough in my Almaster read, to work off that and deduce Zach being scum. I'm hoping this is the lynch today, because I think we have enough information to break down the game if we can just get one scum down. For the record, I'll pick the scumteam here and now;

Zach, KKN, Vel
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