Mini #1007 (Game Over)

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Redtail: I fully understand that my defense of Zach puts me in the worst spot possible, and I'm ok with it to a degree. I do think it's a bit foolish to think that VRK-scum would defend Zach with 4 votes on him, but that's an all-WIFOM argument and I really don't have anything else. There's nothing I can do about Zach's buddying.

I can see what you're saying wrt zach and KKN, but I disagree with his post. I was also happy to consider G&H as town because I thought that Zach bussing him was too much when it happened, but still I'm only seeing walls of text with no commitment towards any one or two players as being more likely scum in his eyes. I really don't like G&H's play.

I know I'm not helping out in any way, shape or form. I'm quite happy with the massclaim and the way Hoopla's gambit worked out. To be brutally honest I think that I should be the lynch for today, since I'm the one that most people have the most questions about wrt alignment. I DO NOT want this taken as an appeal to emotion. I'm dead serious - if I'm not going to be able to help out and I'm just going to carry suspicion with me into the end game then I should go, today.

[Hoopla]

Vel, if you're going to play the apathy card, you can go first in the massclaim.

[AlmasterGM]

Why are we massclaiming? I get that we don't want to accidentally lynch a PR, but we don't need to massclaim for that. Given the huge target on Hoopla's back (IF she's telling the truth), why would we tip our entire hand when we could hold it for a little longer and get some valuable information?

[Hoopla]

Because holding it a little bit longer is riskier than cashing it in now. If we mislynch today, we're in mylo/lylo tomorrow - are you really going to trust someone claiming a guilty on someone else then?

[Hoopla]

VOTE: ConfidAnon

Vel's reaction is slightly town. And redtail is town, and is the main supporter of this vote, so I'm not worried that this idea is being pushed by scum. Infact the attention CA's received in this game has been relatively small. My vote stays here until massclaim proves something else otherwise.

[gonnano]

Vel, who would you choose to lynch besides yourself?

Also, I'm slowly starting to agree with the massclaim, but I still need to think about it some more.

As for my town reads, I think most of them have been explained at one point or another, but maybe not Hoopla.

The reason that I think Hoopla is town is because I feel that she could have gotten away with a lot less scumhunting if she were mafia. I also read a few of her completed games near the beginning of this game, (I think I got all of her scum games and a couple of town games) looking to see if she gave out information like the protection role stats when she was scum. What I found was a tendency as scum to stay away from specific information, and even though she did occasionally include statistics in her scum arguments, they were the kind of general information that leaves plenty of room for manipulation. I didn't find any scum games from her that came close to the amount and quality of information she has provided in this one.

If there's another of those reads that I have neglected to explain, let me know.

I agree that CA has been extremely lurky, but I think I would rather stay with my VRK vote for now.

[AlmasterGM]

Why wouldn't we just have somebody claim IF they have relevant information? Also, why would somebody surface with a guilty? Do you really think there's a cop AND a gunsmith?

[Hoopla]

Why wouldn't we just have somebody claim IF they have relevant information? Also, why would somebody surface with a guilty? Do you really think there's a cop AND a gunsmith?

Read the thread. I'm not a gunsmith.

[gonnano]

I am now of the opinion that we should move someone to L-1, then ask for any information roles to claim IF we are about to mislynch, then ask for an information role counterclaim if there is one, and finally get a claim from the prospective lynchee (if he hasn't claimed an IR).

[gonnano]

oh, and the L-1 part needs to happen soon to leave time for the other part.

[Hoopla]

oh, and the L-1 part needs to happen soon to leave time for the other part.

Better switch to CA quicksmart then, hadn't you?

[gonnano]

I'm more in favor of lynching VRK today, considering that we would get more information from his flip. If I don't think I can get the support I need to make that happen, I will consider switching to the CA wagon.

[Hoopla]

I'm more in favor of lynching VRK today, considering that we would get more information from his flip. If I don't think I can get the support I need to make that happen, I will consider switching to the CA wagon.

CA turning up scum will pretty much confirm Almaster as town, though. I know I shouldn't, but I'm kind of swayed by VRK's AtE - infact, I'll be a little upset if he's scum just giving up like that. That post is the equivalent of a self-vote really, which is largely a town trait, no matter how dumb.

He needs to claim asap though, because we've already burned through enough time today.

[redtail896]

I'm admittedly a little less in CA now that Zach has turned up scum. If CA and Zach were scumbuddies, I would expect CA to be a bit more involved in the discussion yesterday.

Still, I wouldn't be opposed to it. I still might prefer VRK though.

[gonnano]

I don't think VRK's post means that he's giving up, exactly. It's just as likely IMO that he's found himself incriminated by Zach so he's trying one last tactic to convince people that he's town. I notice that he hasn't actually voted for himself yet... maybe saving it so he can self-hammer if he has to?

Speaking of self-hammering, because a lot of my plan relies on information being revealed after someone has been targeted for a lynch, I think that instead of going to L-1 we should go to L-2, then find two more people who are willing to finish the lynch. This would prevent scum from self-hammering and keeping us from getting any information that might turn up. Of course, this is all assuming that we go with my plan, which hasn't been decided yet.

Does anyone disagree with the plan that I presented in post 633?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Vel, who would you choose to lynch besides yourself?

Well I'd really rather not be lynched, to be honest. But, considering that I did in fact defend Zach to a degree, and I've gotten varying degrees of suspicion form 3 players (two of whom starting from day 1) I think my staying in the game will always be a big question mark and I'd rather not go into LyLo with that situation.

If I had to pick right now I would say KKN, then G&H. We have left in the game:

redtail896
ConfidAnon
Hoopla
Good and Honest
gonnano
Kid Know Nothing
AlamasterGM
Vel-Rahn Koon

Honestly besides me they're the only ones left. I think Hoopla's TWO gambits is too over the top for scum to do, and if Hoopla is scum I'm just going to have to live with it. I've had redtail pegged as Town since day 1 because he's asking pointed questions and being very open. I think both CA and AGM are clear due to their interactions with Zach. My only ??? is gonnano. I get a town vibe, but I haven't looked at him very closely.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I don't think VRK's post means that he's giving up, exactly. It's just as likely IMO that he's found himself incriminated by Zach so he's trying one last tactic to convince people that he's town. I notice that he hasn't actually voted for himself yet... maybe saving it so he can self-hammer if he has to?

No, I will not vote for myself unless we're minutes from deadline and threatened with a No Lynch. And you can drop the tactic talk. I explicitly stated I don't want it treated as an AtE. As of now, I'm basically a distraction to the Town so I should go NOW so that I don't continue in such fashion.

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

I'm more in favor of lynching VRK today, considering that we would get more information from his flip. If I don't think I can get the support I need to make that happen, I will consider switching to the CA wagon.

What information do you think you'll get from my flip?

[Vel-Rahn Koon]

Sorry, forgot to start the claim process.

Claim: Vanilla Townie

[AlmasterGM]

HUURRRR, there's so many gambits I lose track of what's actually going on.

Still disagreeing with massclaim, unless the cop has a guilty or can claim an innocent on a person we are about to lynch, I don't see the value. But if EVERYONE else wants to, I won't be like Good and Honest and refuse to partake.

gonnano, Hoopla is better at scum than town. Don't use that as a mechanism for reading Hoopla. Also remember that as the one who has compiled all the statistics and norms, she knows exactly how to manipulate and evade them. This whole gunsmith gambit has set me silly.

[gonnano]

VRK, I was just trying to say that we'd get more from your flip than from CA the super-lurker.

Anyway, now that VRK has claimed we can either go with the massclaim, wagon VRK and follow the plan that I proposed which everyone seems to be ignoring (possibly because it's stupid, but if it is I would like to know at least), or wagon someone else (probably CA) and follow my plan with an extra claim floating around. I think it's obvious what VRK votes for, but I'd like to hear everyone else's take on the subject.

[Espeonage]

VOTE COUNT

1 -

Kid Know Nothing

- Vel-Rahn Koon (L-4)
1 -

Vel-Rahn Koon

- gonnano (L-4)
1 -

ConfidAnon

- Hoopla (L-4)

Not Voting - ConfidAnon, Good and Honest, Kid Know Nothing, AlmasterGM, redtail896

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

[Hoopla]

HUURRRR, there's so many gambits I lose track of what's actually going on.

That's a shame - because you can actually glean some solid information from it if you think about it logically. Unless redtail thought it was a gambit, which seems very unlikely from his responses of trying to determine my sanity and his adamance he doesn't have a gun - it is pretty obvious he is town. Scum in this scenario would be decidedly unsure, even if they were sensing a gambit, and I didn't actually have information on them - but the fact the information I claimed to have was accurate, it means scum can never know for sure, and would certainly not commit to one answer so decisively as redtail is. If he were scum, he virtually signs any hope of survival away UNLESS it was gambit - and even if redtail thinks I might of been lying about my results, he certainly wouldn't have known if I'd follow through on them.

Redtail is town. I have other reasons to believe gonnano is town, too, but this is dependent on what happens in the massclaim, so we need to get this done. If you don't want to think about the results of my gambit, and are palming it off as chaos for the sake of chaos, I can assure you you're wrong, and they were done for a reason. And I think the information (psuedo-confirming redtail as town) is a supreme benefit - but don't just dismiss it if you're too lazy to look at it or ask questions.

Also, since when have I been better as scum?

[Hoopla]

Guys, we have about 5 days until deadline - we need to get through this massclaim. Gonnano is next, then CA.

[redtail896]

I'm also good with the massclaim. I recognize that there might exist info that we won't have tomorrow, and I think we should try to create a core of trustworthy people now.

After the massclaim though, unless something crazy comes out, I still support VRK.