The problem I have with explaining is that "luck" implies that scum make a mistake. I'd rather keep information to a minimum for that reason. If the SK can't be killed, and we lynch DH, we either end up with 1-1-1 lost, as the SK can't be killed, or if the SK makes the mistake of killing the mafia (as explained before), in a simple lylo with the SK. The SK isn't stupid, so he'll kill a vanilla as most of the reads are already in the open.evilpacman18 wrote:Can you do that with math? Just outline the scenario you're imagining where a no lynch now helps town win.
The rest of this post assumes there's 2 mafia.
Luckiest scenario: with 1 scum left after DH dies, they take each other out.
Town can't win without a certain amount of luck. If they don't take each other out then either the remaining mafia player will have to eliminate the SK while the SK eliminates a town member or the SK eliminates the mafia player while the mafia player eliminates a town member. Frankly, one of those three scenarios happening is MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH MUCH more likely than both of them taking out town players. So I don't see where your no lynch would help because it would leave us with 2 scum, 1 SK, and 3 town at the end of the day and then either
2 scum, 2 town,
1 scum, 1 SK, 2 town,
or 1 scum, 3 town after the night. If that remaining scum isn't DH, there's a big chance town could mislynch for the lose.
If you try to do the maths for the No-lynch scenario, you'll see that randomly the town wins more often, but it has also the advantage that the SK has to shoot for antitown players (he loses if the scum are still alive tomorrow)
Sorry about Kise, but it 
