Open 256~Fire and Ice Mafia Over!

[Scott Brosius]

Alright, I haven't caught up given there are 2 scum groups and I would just get mad if I got killed after reading and not being able to post. So I shall catch up.

[Scott Brosius]

4/7 of the game is scum. However, they are also scumhunting which poses a problem. In this setup, it's best to look at what players (town) both sides think are scummy. Those are most likely to be town players. But in this state of the game with no scum flips, that is a problem.

I think the doctor should claim. More than half the game is scum anyway, so protecting someone even at random is a bad idea. We don't want the doctor preventing crosskills either. The doctor can essentially act as a confirmed townie at this point (I doubt either scum team will risk a counter-claim given there are 2 scum groups and it's really risky), and can certainly create some nighttime WIFOM for the scum groups (whether to kill claimed doc, assuming other group will, etc). In before scum jumps all over this as role-fishing.

bolded are flipped town (and myself as I know I am town)

don_johnson

(1): CommieX

a2rudeboy

(1): Lowell
Robocopter87(1): mallowgeno

drmyshottyizsik

(5):

don_johnson

, tanstalas, Robocopter87,

CSL

,

jmurph3

mallowgeno(1):

mothrax

CSL

(1):

drmyshottyizsik

Not voting(2): JesseSheffield,

a2rudeboy

mothrax

(1): Lowell

don_johnson

(6):

CSL

, Robocopter87, JesseSheffield,

don_johnson

,

jmurph3

, mallowgeno

jmurph3

(2): Vren,

mothrax

Not voting(1): Zed

Lowell is troubling based on looking at the final vote counts. It looks like he is avoiding being on wagons, and both of his votes have been on townies. He has been his usual lurky self, and all of his votes have only been on flipped townies. He thinks Jesse, Robo, Mallow are town, which is impossible at this point. Buddying Jesse pretty hard in this game.

Vren's vote has also been on 2 townies and also have been away from the main wagons. This slot has done even less than Lowell. Vren said hello on the 16th, then was MIA through deadline. Hasn't been posting elsewhere though, so this slot may just be idle.

Robo has been on both wagons both town. This is null to me, given the playstyle of shotty and DJ. They seemed to deserve to be lynched.

JS has no vote and on the DJ wagon. Mostly bickering with DJ.

mallow has tunneled Robo pretty hard throughout the game. Not much to say otherwise.

Zed replaced in, a lot of empty promises of catching up. Another slot pretty much lacking content.

So since the wagons were for anti-town players, this game is tough to evaluate given that town could easily mistake both lynch victims for scum. I think Lowell is our best bet to find scum given his vote history and general lack of content.

Vote: Lowell

[Scott Brosius]

Well yes there are 4 scum left, but they are just as willing to lynch scum as we are (obviously the other team). So I think not voting is being over-cautious.

Vren what do you think about other people? That is your only content post in this game thus far.

[Scott Brosius]

Nobody has commented on my idea of the doctor claiming. Thoughts?

[Scott Brosius]

Not necessarily. They want to kill each other at this point more than us. And as I said, the doctor has a 1/3 chance of saving town. He probably shouldn't protect anyone (unless self-protection is allowed but I doubt it).

Do you have any other thoughts on this game?

[Scott Brosius]

That seems unlikely. It would put the scumteam at an inherent disadvantage (putting 1 member in a one of you or you is scum situation). It would prevent a mislynch today. And it would cause nighttime confusion and WIFOM.

I guess it would be 1/5 or 2/5 after we lynch today. It shouldn't be looked at as 1/3>0/3. Making a mistake in protection could prevent a crosskill which we desperately need at this point given over half of the game is scum. A doctor is more likely to protect a scum member than a town member based on probability. This gets even worse if we mislynch today leaving only one protection option that isn't scum. Although it doesn't explicitly say it in the PM, I assume the doctor cannot protect himself. If that is allowed, that is the obvious action

I still think its a good idea, but to each his own. This game is painfully quiet. Robo, Lowell, mallow, Vren are completely absent and are most likely to be scum.

[Scott Brosius]

Oh man post 350! That's a great post full of reads. You haven't given an opinion on anyone but me today (which was given after I said you were absent) so don't pretend as if you are ripe with participation. We can play the angry sarcasm game if you want but it usually doesn't result in productive posts.

Mallow has shot up my scum list behind Lowell. Trying hard to defend his weak participation and almost a form of a OMGUS vote for me stating that he isn't particpating.

Lowell you could comment on something today that isn't Jesse or I voting for you. Or continue to be scummy doing that.

I was really just using that participation comment to see who was being lurky and choosing not to participate but keeping tabs on the thread. Got my answer.

For the last time it's not 1/3>0/3. It would be this if there was no potential bad result for that 2/3 protection. But there is. And we need crosskills.

[Scott Brosius]

Wow really grasping at straws now. Trying to discredit me by bringing up who I replaced? You are completely overreacting to me thinking you are scum. I haven't even voted you although I am getting closer with each post you make.

Anyway do you have any other scum reads besides me?

[Scott Brosius]

May I ask why you call me scum?

I understand your vote on Scott but you gave absolutely no reasoning for suspicion on me.

You understand it? I see the reason as being my doctor opinion which is incredibly weak, and that I think he is scummy so he is discrediting me.

[Scott Brosius]

mallow why do you think Lowell is town?

[Scott Brosius]

It's a lot more probable that they aimed for the same person.

Well Lowell was obvscum. Given that nothing has changed from D3 besides Lowell's flip, mallow is next on my scum list.

Mod: Can you do something about Vren. I know its the start of the day, but that slot has done absolutely nothing.

[Scott Brosius]

/broken record doctor should claim.

It's not really LYLO in the sense where if we mislynch we lose. I realize we can lose tonight. I'm not suggesting being hasty with votes, but extreme carefulness looks like scum attempting to appear town.

Vote:mallowgeno

[Scott Brosius]

Sorta. We could lose tonight, but a mislynch doesn't doom us. It would depend on night actions. If we mislynch there will be 2 town 2 fire 1 ice and scum need a majority for their wincon.

[Scott Brosius]

I never said I was willing to risk a mislynch. I'm saying LYLO means that the game is definitely over if we mislynch. This is not the case. Night actions could lead to a cross-kill taking out 2 scum, both shooting at the same target killing nobody.

Yeah reducing the NKs is nice. I think it's more likely you are fire mafia and are selectively scum-hunting. Half of the remaining players are scum. I'm just looking for the scummiest player at this point. If Robo is your first choice, you should go with it.

I don't find doctors that useful, and when half of the game is scum, they prove even more useless. As I said before, it will narrow down the pool of lynch candidates for today, and create some nighttime WIFOM follies (unless we lynch Ice).

I do agree with mallow's point on Zed. Pot calling kettle black.

[Scott Brosius]

I took it as you are accusing of someone being quiet as inherently scummy. Yet you have been quiet. So there's a contradiction there.

[Scott Brosius]

Buddying? That's pretty laughable. I agree with him on one thing, he's still my top scum pick at the moment. You are becoming very defensive.

I'm liking mallow, vren, Zed as the remaining scum.

[Scott Brosius]

Okay then how am I supposed to describe you then Vren? I mean, do you honestly believe you've been in the top half of contributors in this game?

I think Scott's likely town. I have no indication that he's scum and to me he seems like the most logical person in this game, perhaps even including myself. If I had to bet on one person other than myself being town I'd say it's Scott.

BUDDYING LOLZ (this is sarcasm explained below)

Sigh, you can't just say someone is buddying because they agree on one point. Me and Robo wanted to lynch Lowell, that means we are buddying?

Scott, why should I vote Robo if I think Mallow is more likely Ice scum, and we want to eliminate the Ice scum tonight?

"We" want to eliminate Ice Scum? As I said before, while it would be nice to get rid of a NK I'm looking for scum regardless of team. You are not and that concerns me.
Also you have been under the radar. Just because you give an excuse for it doesn't mean it's not true. You have 5 posts of content in this game.

My reads haven't changed, still think doctor should claim, yawn I'm boring and repetitive.

[Scott Brosius]

Make a case Zed.

Also found the Vren comment hypocritical.

[Scott Brosius]

I really have nothing new to say. I am fine with a mallow or Zed lynch today.

[Scott Brosius]

There should be crosskills. If they aim for the same person, nothing happens, but if fire shoots ice and ice shoots fire, that kill should go through.

[Scott Brosius]

Do you have any opinions outside of the setup?

[Scott Brosius]

Well this is amusing. Your case on me is that I wasn't around during night (whatever that means) and there was no kill? Did you read the beginning of the day where most of us agreed it's 100x more likely that fire and ice shot the same person, thereby canceling out their kills, rather than the very rare possibility of a group forgetting to kill AND the doctor protecting the exact other person who was targeted? It's really bizarre that this is your case especially after you went to such care to discuss the setup and power of the mafia.

As for the setup, we had already discussed cross-kills went through but same kills did not. So yes I knew that. The 1v1v1 situation I did not.

Why would you rather nail fire scum today? To me it's a wash. Lynching Ice means there is only 1 NK, but there are no chances at cross-kills. Lynching fire means the mafia can kill each other, but they could also kill 2 town members.

[Scott Brosius]

oh right I forgot about that...killing the same person counters each other.....but my scenario is just as plausible as the other one, is it not?

in reference to the 1v1v1 questions, then if you did not know that, as town, THAT was good knowledge to have...so what was the purpose of busting my balls about asking setup related questions when it as good for the town to know?

Just seemed like you disappeared. Didn't want the spot to continue to be vacant that's all.

The scenario of one team forgetting the kill and the other team happening to pick the player that the doctor protected is plausible, but I find it more likely that they shot at the same person. It's pretty WIFOMy anyway.

[Scott Brosius]

Probably no reason to doubt claim. If it is a fake-claim, real doctor please counter.

I would be fine with a mallow or CKD lynch today.

[Scott Brosius]

anyone alive out there? We need to lynch somebody before deadline.

[Scott Brosius]

My read at the moment is that Robo is the other town member (assuming Zed's claim). Mallow, CKD, JS would then be my preferred lynches in order with a strong preference for mallow.

[Scott Brosius]

It's not really his actions, it's more process of elimination to me. Mallow has been scummy all game, I found the selective scum hunting of your slot scummy (and your subsequent cases were pretty weak). And JS seems to be popping in when convenient not helping. Given Zed's claim, that leaves Robo.

[Scott Brosius]

Lowell(4): Scott Brosius, JesseSheffield, Robocopter87, mallowgeno
mallowgeno(4): Scott Brosius, Zed, curiouskarmadog, Robocopter87

Based on this, I am inclined to think Robo is other town member as I mentioned yesterday. He hammered mallow and was pretty much against Lowell from the start. I would rather a CKD lynch today over JS but either are fine with me.

[Scott Brosius]

I see no reason to be overly careful with votes. Although assuming they have aimed for the same person each night and not the forgetting the kill, doctor protect, they are gunning for town members and not the other team.

I don't know why Jesse thinks I'm 100% town. I'm not sure how I can even comment on this given that he has barely been around to say anything at all.

I want to hear from Zed.

[Scott Brosius]

Going back to what I said earlier, to find town we must find who both groups went after. Since we have flips from both groups lets take a look back.

CKD is not on either of these lists. Myself, JS, and Robo are on both. Lowell's reads are so laughably constructed that there really isn't much to take from them. I can see scum mallow putting his partner in "gut instincts" however. Given mallow and Lowell's interactions with me are quite similar to the interactions with Robo, I'm still thinking Robo is the other townie.

Anyway do you have any other scum reads besides me?

Speak of the devil himself! Another one of my scum reads! Probably one of the other most scummy people.

Mallow's Magical List O' Scum:
1. Scotty Boy
2. Robocoptor
These other two are just gut instincts:
3. Jessee
4. Zed/Jed

In case I end up dead here soon:

I'm starting to believe

mallow

and

scott

are a scumteam together. Two pages ago I would have thought it not possible, but their latest zeroing in on each other has the feel of scum trying to take charge and distance. Scott (sort of) taking jesse's side, and mallow (sort of) taking mine, but mostly just trashing each other. It looks overly dramatic to me. Considering mallow's VOTE on scott and his seeming conflict with him, not much has been done in the way of actually PERSUADING others that lynching scott is the way to go. Makes me think they're happy just bickering.

The other scumteam is

robo

and

jesse

. Again, I think they don't both want to be on the lead wagon without calling attention to themselves and drawing a NK. Robo's 3rd vote comes more or less out of the blue (all of a sudden he thinks I'm scum, shocker!), and I think jesse is trying to draw someone else to make the hammer. He's tunnelled on me a lot, otherwise staying relatively low. However, I could

easily

see the last scum being vren instead of one of the others; a slot that's been basically a blank slate.

vote scott

I'd like to see if mallow

actually

wants scott dead, or he's just saying he does.

[Scott Brosius]

Well you are the only other person with an unbiased opinion. That's why I wanted to hear from you.

[Scott Brosius]

But what exactly do you want to hear? Any questions you have or something like that?

The 2 most likely remaining scum in your opinion

got a hot second..checking in...

fine with a jesse lynch...still not getting why SB is 100% town in his view....if he really believed that, he should be voting Robo or myself....yet...no votes...no posts...no anything...dont have time to see if he is posting any where else on site....no need for me to vote now (when it will be unintended)..

He hasn't posted anywhere since last Sunday.

[Scott Brosius]

I would say my quantity has been better than average.

I have led the wagons on my top 2 scum reads who have both flipped scum so I think my quality is pretty high.

[Scott Brosius]

I would prefer a CKD lynch over Jesse.

Vote: CKD

[Scott Brosius]

Not much has changed for me. Still think CKD, JS are the 2 scum left. Would prefer CKD lynched today, would hammer JS if need be.

[Scott Brosius]

Lowell acted very similarly towards me as he did towards Robo. This is why I am leaning towards Robo town.

As for being on the sidelines, that's really only been yesterday. It came down to who Zed wanted to hammer, the argument between JS and CKD proved useless to me so I ignored it.

For my defense (WIFOM ALERT) Lowell really had no attention/case on him for the first 2 days. I replaced in and immediately found him scummy. Why would it make any sense as Lowell's partner to replace in and immediately finger him for obvscum? That would be beyond stupid with scum groups still at full strength. It's not like I would get any town credibility especially in a 2 scum group game. It would be one thing if Lowell had some suspicion on him the day before, but he was flying under the radar pretty successfully.

I decided to go back and reread Lowell. This seems to be the most interesting post he made regarding someone being his possible scumbuddy.

In case I end up dead here soon:

I'm starting to believe mallow and scott are a scumteam together. Two pages ago I would have thought it not possible, but their latest zeroing in on each other has the feel of scum trying to take charge and distance. Scott (sort of) taking jesse's side, and mallow (sort of) taking mine, but mostly just trashing each other. It looks overly dramatic to me. Considering mallow's VOTE on scott and his seeming conflict with him, not much has been done in the way of actually PERSUADING others that lynching scott is the way to go. Makes me think they're happy just bickering.

The other scumteam is robo and jesse. Again, I think they don't both want to be on the lead wagon without calling attention to themselves and drawing a NK. Robo's 3rd vote comes more or less out of the blue (all of a sudden he thinks I'm scum, shocker!), and I think jesse is trying to draw someone else to make the hammer. He's tunnelled on me a lot, otherwise staying relatively low. H

owever, I could easily see the last scum being vren instead of one of the others; a slot that's been basically a blank slate.

vote scott

I'd like to see if mallow actually wants scott dead, or he's just saying he does.

I think that the remaining scum is Scott Brosius. He has no mention of CKD and I don't think that he even is considering anything besides "His partner" and "Staying Alive". He is flailing here.

He does mention CKD/Vren here at the end here bolded for the record.

[Scott Brosius]

I stand by it. The doctor basically served as a confirmed townie at that point. Unless the doctor could protect himself (which if true Zed should have obviously done that last night) his power was more likely to prevent crosskills than protect town. If we had mislynched D3, we would have been in a really crappy spot 2v2v2. Zed would have been essentially useless and had a 1/5 shot of protecting the other town member. We needed to lynch scum D3. The doctor wasn't that useful of a role at that point besides being essentially confirmed.

[Scott Brosius]

Robo can you link a game where you were scum?

CKD: I doubt scum would fakeclaim doctor especially in a 2 scum group game. It basically dooms the fakeclaimer while putting the other scum group in a superior position. One scum group means that they are the only ones benefiting from an outed doctor. Two scum groups this isn't the case. Granted some people play this game stupidly, but I saw the chance of a scum fakeclaiming doctor to be pretty low.

[Scott Brosius]

Robo has been on every wagon.

CKD has been on no wagons except Fire mafia.

I still don't know what this means.

[Scott Brosius]

Well being on Fire mafia's wagons is irrelevant, because town and Ice are going to be equally scum-hunting.

[Scott Brosius]

The following link is a game where lowell is scum in similar setup to this (2 player 2 scum teams) if anyone cares to look.

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 51&t=15289

My case on CKD coming into this day was the specific scumhunting by Vren but other than that I really don't have much. There are a few WIFOMy things that bother me about Robo.

Killing jmurph N2- This is a pretty random kill for a pretty low-content player. jmurph was pretty adamant that Robo is scum. Why else would jmurph be killed. I know everyone on this site hates looking into NKs, but I've exhausted other options of looking for scumtells.

Ill make posts or something of that sort soon.

Still waiting.

20 minutes later

Ill make posts or something of that sort soon.

Still waiting.

I find this ironic even though the mod said this in his last vote count,

... and Vren is in a race against potential replacements to stay in the game.

So it's clear Robo is following the thread, responding immediately to this. Then it takes another two days to get some content. It is clear Robo is watching the thread pretty carefully as he responded to my most recent post within a half hour. That seems more like scum waiting to hammer a misvote to me than anything else. I wouldn't put it past you to bus Lowell, there was no way he was going to make it to endgame anyway.

Finally, I just don't see 2 replacements necessary for a scum role. I'm sure it has happened before but to me its a coinflip in picking either of you two. So i'm looking at everything.

Usually I value facts much more than gut. But I don't have a lot to go on here, and I don't think looking at this thread any longer will result in a more informed decision.

Vote: Robocopter

[Scott Brosius]

Hooray!

[Scott Brosius]

I would like to see night actions

[Scott Brosius]

Haha, more along the lines of who scum aimed for those 2 nights without kills.

[Scott Brosius]

I had a feeling I was targeted N4 by both groups given I replaced in and led the lynches on mallow and Lowell who were on opposite scum teams.

I don't really understand the attempt at NKs N3 and N4. Scum should be aiming for the other scum at that point, I don't really see how both scum groups thought I was scum given my lynching history. Vren is a great slot to leave alive because it is useless to town. Unless both scum groups thought that slot was scum, that is more understandable.

[Scott Brosius]

Modding was good, I didn't think N5 needed to go the full night unless it really took a long time for something to be sent in. There was no way scum wasn't NKing the confirmed townie at that point.

[Scott Brosius]

It wasn't "well done".

They voted me off of gut. I had much more against scott than he had against me. I just looked worse. Though I don't really even know how I looked worse. Seeing how I pushed all those scum lynches. even if I wasn't Ice Scum the Two Fire Mafia wagons were totally town. The thing about the two scumteams was that it made me scumhunt. And I nailed them.

None of us had anything of substance the last day. You hardly had a lot more on me than we had on you. The fact that you were willing to no-kill the night before is indicative of that.

[Scott Brosius]

Yeah I just got tired of the game and we clearly weren't going to have some divine intervention leading us to a clear answer.