Mini 1111: Wait Your Turn, Tex! (GAME OVER)

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Cogito Ergo Scum isn't playing, Fate.

Vote: UltimaAvalon

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Think of it this way, chamber - we've prevented UA from self-voting!

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I feel your pain, Fritz.

*hop*

Unvote, vote: Katsuki

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Vote for Katsuki or confess, PF.

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I'll switch to Pokerface if you do, Fate.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Unvote, vote: Pokerface

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Fritz is totes town, but I only see a conditional town tell in UA's posts. Scot needs to post more.

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this game a couple of scumchat buddies

Hey, hey, it's clearly a couple of unicorn buddies.

I can't read angry Fate; it doesn't help that I haven't read a game with Fate as scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

not that he would back to back as scum

I totally would; if I pride myself on anything, it's not shying away from anything as scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Boo Hoopla. Don't let Pokerface get away simply by being inactive!

P.S. Fate bringing up the daytalk thing like that I consider to be a slight town tell.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Mind sharing your epiphany?

P.S. including me in that list is unlikely to get me to help.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

CES being afraid to be included in a list of potential scum is BAD, btw.

I'm not afraid of anything; I just find vague arguments that seem to suggest a higher likelihood of me being scum to be less persuasive than ones that don't.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. I'm not sure what to make of how Fate-orientated Hoopla has been.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hmm. Your first 2 paragraphs here (preview: in #177) suggest a distribution of scum among the 2 wagons that doesn't seem to mesh with your town reads, i.e. 4/6 on Pokerfacewagon belong to your town list and Xalxe's more suspicious than the amount of votes indicate but none of the voters are on your town list and you call out scotmany's vote as being distancing.

Personally I don't like this type of argumentation which essentially assumes that the scum group as a whole acts predictably (as opposed to arguments that deal with individuals), but I can't resist a bigger wagon.

Unvote, vote: Xalxe

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

It's depressing how effective lurking your way out of a wagon is.

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Hoopla's confirmation bias plus his inactivity dousing the fires of our suspicions.

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So no posts then, Katsuki?

Hoopls, what do you think of Pokerface-Xalxe now?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Plus: no-lynching is for wussies.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. Could you answer the question I asked you in #198, Hoopls?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hoopla, the question was prompted by posts #187 and #188. Pokerface says he leans scum on Hoopla and Fate, then chooses to vote for you despite the fact that a Fatevote would've had way more impact on the game, notably right after Xalxe went after Fate.

This part hear seems to suggest you have some doubt or you are trying not to get blamed for him possibly being town and I think scum would be more prone to worying about being blamed than town, especially before fate's flip. feels like you know how he'd flip, so yay I am starting to get a scum read on sudo too.

Uncertainty is an inherent part of the game and acknowledging this when prompted to by a question is not scummy. Furthermore, Sudo in no way avows responsibility in that post.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If anything, that is a town tell - Pokerface could quite easily have elected to create a "me vs. him" dilemma, pushing Fate's wagon, or even anyone else with votes. Scum leading vote counts (especially close to lynch) are likelier to bundle onto the next highest vote getter, as they stand to lose more by being lynched, thus making it the rational play to bring someone else into contention (or closer to contention). It's possible the vote can be interpreted as avoiding responsibility, but I don't think it is scummy either way.

See, my point of view is that is exactly what they planned to do in their qt, but PF didn't follow through on it because it would've been obvious due to the proximity of their posts. Note that he totally did set-up a Fate vote in that post.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I see I missed #235.

I can't say i agree with your first sentence cause it still feels like he was acknowledging it to agar, as though he didn't want agar to go after him.

You explain your actions to people so that they don't go after you; that's just part of the game.

What do you think of sudo in general CES?

Null. Looking over his iso, I see he needs to post more though.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm disappointed by the activity.

P.S. Agar, you suck as much as PokerFace.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Xalxe, if one's scumbuddy's lynch becomes inevitable, you stay on that wagon, you silly man.

P.S. Agar is probably scum.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I got that was what you meant; I was just jokingly pointing out that your lynch looks a whole lot more inevitable.

I'd be up for a CES lynch today, mainly due to scum-meta

What are you on about? I have yet to see someone apply scum-meta to me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Agrees with Fate.

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I pushed that angle before you did, Fate.

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Sudo's also male.

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We should mass claim popcorn style.

I suggest Pokerface starts.

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Please state that you want Pokerface to start a popcorn claim, Fate.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I am even night. (Which means I could improve my record of getting to shoot in vig set-ups to 1 in 3 Tonight!)

This leaves Fate.

I assume you have played with sudo before. What do you generally think of him?

As far as I can tell (I can't really exclude having played with him in the period between his joining and before I left), this is my first game with Sudo.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Hmm. The two possible plans are no-lynch + crossfire as you suggest and lynch + triangle. In the second case we win simply by lynching correctly (since the triangle is guaranteed to kill off scum), which seems fairly manageable. In the first case we lose if it's either of the pairings we made. Let's assign probabilities of being scum to each of us: p1>p2>p3>p4 (the numbers are in order of scumminess; this is all hypothetical.) Then the chance of success for the first one is p1 whereas it's 1-p1p4-p2p3 (fairly sure that's the two pairings you want to pick) for the second one. If p1=p2=p3=p4, both would be 0.5. If we now disturb things by making p1 higher at the expense of p4 and p2 higher at the expense of p3, then we find a derivative of 2(p1+p2)-2, whereas the derivative is 1 in the first case. So in this simplistic model p1+p2 must be higher than 1.5 just for the chance of success to grow faster than that of the triangle plan which clearly suggests the triangle plan is better.

But the best way of judging would probably be for UA to post how likely he thinks people are scum and we can just do the calculations!

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Ignore those calculations. We can express the probability of winning following the crossfire plan as p1(1-p4)+p4(1-p1) (i.e. odds of #1scum#4town OR #1town#4scum) which can be rewritten as p1 - p4(2p1-1). This clearly shows that firstly pairing #1 with #4 would be optimal (since p3>p4) and that the crossfire plan is strictly worse than the triangle plan since p4(2p1-1)>0 (p1>0.5).

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

AND WHY ARE UA'S READS MORE IMPORTANT THAN YOUR OWN?

Because the confirmed innocent decides things, jackass.

IS SCOTMANY TOWN? IS THAT IT?

I don't know. I think PokerFace is scum, but I'm not sure who his partner is.

POKERFACE IN ALL HIS MADNESS IS OBVTOWN COMPARETIVELY.

Pokerface is doing the

exact same thing

you're accusing me and scot of: leaving it up to UA and set-up speculation.

Cross with no lynch

scuma >< towna & scumb >< townb = Win
scumb >< towna & scuma >< townb = Win
scuma >< scumb & towna >< townb = Loose

Although crudely simplistic it does show my earlier conclusion was wrong. I see I forgot to adjust the probabilities of #4 being town given that #1 was scum and vice versa, which would give p1(1-0.5p4)+p4(1-0.5p1)=p1+p4(1-p1), which ironically reverses the conclusion: although the improvement is slight (it's significantly smaller than 2/3 vs. 1/2 as in Pokerface's example because he implicitly assumed the distribution (0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5) which hurts the triangle plan most), crosskilling is always better. I feel silly.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Please.
1) The difference isn't that big.
2) That assumes no one won't check my work.
3) I have too much mathematical pride to do such a thing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Caps aren't going to change anything. Try providing some content next post instead of this posturing.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

YOU AND SCOTMANY ARE SCUM AND I'VE STATED WHY. POKERFACE IS TOWN I'VE STATED WHY..

I believe that was about scot and me deferring to UA and/or talking about the set-up while PokerFace was supposed not to have done this even though he totally did. Not very convincing.

YOU'RE THE ONE WHOS ALL "scot is scum but iddunooo his partnerzzz waaaaaaaaaaa"

Way to pay attention. Pokerface is the scums.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That seems unlikely since we aren't lynching.

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Hey, hey, UA, can I shoot PokerFace instead? I'd like to nail the scum I caught.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Plus, I'm more sure that PokerFace is scum than that Fate is scum with him.

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Fate's behaviour isn't exactly consistent with that of someone who's about to lose either.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Because my plan is guaranteed to win this for town based on obvscum+obvscum.


Now you're just trying to prey on UA's "PokerFace" suspicions, and try to get teamed up with him. I wouldn't be ALL THAT surprised if you two were scum.

Weren't the "obvscum" scot and me (and note that my plan would still be a win for town then)?

As long as you know you are town then this win is in the bag, from your point of view.

?? Under UA's plan we totally lose to a PokerFace-Scot scum team (which is equivalent to you being town).

You'll have to convince me why PokerFace is scum, using an actual CASE with points and such.

I'll give it a try.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Your thoughts are all over the place in those last few posts, Fate. Now let me write up my case.

P.S. I just noticed post #9 totally went over your head. Cogito Ergo Scum was a regular at one point, Fate.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Case:

Ahh but in voting me for a reason, you are also blatantly trying to end the RVS

Pure rhetorical jibberjabber - an obvious sign that PokerFace wants to justify his vote, not find scum.

Your wagon is gone so start your meta

Feels off.

Well whatever I guess if you don't want to join in it now its no fun anymore

Posturing.

What's the case on katsuki?

On Page 3.

I'll jump on Xalxe since he was first to use Fos. When you are this early in the game an Fos has no point but trying to avoid getting suspected or making any waves. He should have just voted as I don't think there is anything truly wrong with omgus in RVS or this early in the game

Reasoning is mostly okay here, albeit unconvincing, but 1) "first to use FoS" is a very weird criterion since I don't see how the order in which it happened should matter and 2) Fate was the first to FoS. Looks like distancing.

PF backed up his vote. I'll deal with him in a minute.

This supports my previous accusation. Note that Xalxe conveniently got distracted by Fate and never mentions PF again, although to be fair, he failed to mention quite a few (including scot).

UA gave omgus as a reason to keep voting me. I don't really consider that a scum tell early on in the game especially since I was primarily trying to get fun out of his stitch but aparently he didn't want to wait to try it later, oh well. I did find it interesting that his logic was rather counter intuitive.

Obvious under-the-table jab.

So first you say we shouldn't claim or wifom it and then you totatally just did one of those things and pointed to the scum to off Fate?

He misread Hoopla's perfectly role-neutral statement here; not sure if this is a honest mistake. Could easily be role-fishing.

If he was town he wouldn't need to cover his tracks

Pointless jab.

His entire attack in #188 on Hoopla feels thoroughly unconvincing. It all seems to be along the lines of "I disagree with this course of action." rather than "This is scummy, because...".

Yay fritz is confusing and I am leaning scum on hoopla and Fate. feel stronger about them than i did about xaixe earlier.
unvote, vote: hoopla

Doesn't specify a preference for Hoopla over Fate yet goes with the pressureless Hooplavote over the useful Fatevote. I can think of at least 3 possible scum motivations here:
1) Scum decided to make a concerted push on Fate to avoid the Xalxelynch (a not unreasonable supposition as evidenced by how well we're doing now after the Xalxelynch), but PF thinks it would be too obvious due to Xalxe doing the same in #187, the preceding post.
2) He'd rather not rock the boat with a Fatevote.
3) He doesn't want to be accused of sheeping since his case on Fate was mostly borrowed.

After reading posts like these I am re considering my reasoning I am starting to consider hoopla is town and thought fate was town as apposed to scum defending scum or scum buddying. It kinda makse sence. Only thing that don't make sence is where she almost soft claimed too.

Unexplained switch on Fate (quite possibly a reaction to people calling the PokerFace-Xalxe connection I just mentioned); brings up Hoopla's "soft claim" again, don't see a pro-town motive for that if he isn't even suspicious of her.

@Sudo
viewtopic.php?p=2727859#p2727859
Are you voting Fate because you think he is scum for acting anti-town with no good reason OR do you think he is town acting anti-town and should stop or be killed?

I just read sudo's last post.

More posturing. Why not simply remove it? This doesn't help anyone, just takes up space.

This part hear seems to suggest you have some doubt or you are trying not to get blamed for him possibly being town and I think scum would be more prone to worying about being blamed than town, especially before fate's flip. feels like you know how he'd flip,

As I mentioned then, this looks more like a knee-jerk reaction to someone admitting uncertainty than someone scrutinising Sudo's posts to determine his alignment.

so yay I am starting to get a scum read on sudo too.

"Starting" is a very weird and possibly revealing choice of language.

Xalxe your play so far seems kinda angry. You say you agree with UA and sudo and then yell at them for making you feel useless. Also to note your laugh at my post. I'm however not sure why you are disturbed when you had 2 votes at first seeing you disturbed at when you were l-1 is expected but again why angry at people not voting you? Your actions feel wierd, couple that with what you said earlier and what I thought before where you didn't make waves, makes me think you may be worth the deadline lynch. But its not time for that yet I think right now I am waiting on hooplas response before i get off her

Least convincing Xalxecase ever. Not sure why he's already thinking ahead to the deadline - not a town mindset.

I can't say i agree with your first sentence cause it still feels like he was acknowledging it to agar, as though he didn't want agar to go after him.

Tries to spin Sudo explaining himself into something scummy.

I'll go over xalxe and hoops and give what I think of them later

Overly lynch-orientated. He'd already talked about Xalxe and Hoopls plenty.

that last part is asuming xalxe is scum if he ain't i will have to rethink alot

(referring to his previous post) A telling assumption, especially since he totally wasn't voting Xalxe.

fate put up some defense to accusations on him while xalxe put up nothing much but an attack back on fate so yay i'm not unhappy with how things turned out and think that was better choice out of those 2

Weaksauce explanation. Again,

he was still voting Hoopls here.

Should we massclaim and if so, which claim method should we use (Popcorn, random, etc)

Seems oddly deferential to the town's wishes - popcorn mass claim was obviously the right move.

If anyone was chainsawing it was xalxe

Some sweet post-mortem distancing. Xalxe's attack came way too late for it to be chainsawing.

I am fairly certain scotmany is scum

Comes out of nowhere.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Oh hey.

I am fairly certain scotmany is scum

Got no firm read on scot.

Is this is the key point?

In any case I will note that I didn't ISO PokerFace but re-read the game and the voting Hoopls near deadline is a dead give-away given his anti-Xalxe behaviour around the same time.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I was basically trying to have some lulz

That's exactly what I claim you were pretending to do. I don't see why you'd state it that explicitly. Note how you repeat it in this post too. It feels too intentional.

I still thought him saying i was trying to break randomness and voting for it was interesting

There's that word again - interesting. Calling something interesting is an easy way to throw mud without committing.

who did i talk more about in that post? Fate or hoopla? Hoopla and i felt stronger about her since I thought she had gone back on logic and safe claimed thinking she could get away with it since everyone was

Who you talked about more is irrelevant (and the answer is only Hoopla because you quoted a case against Fate instead of developing it yourself).

I disagreed with his actions and was not 100% sure he was scum. felt firmer abut hoops since I thught she went back on her own logic

"Not 100% sure he was scum." is a meaningless platitude - you weren't 100% sure about Hoopls either. It's very easy for you to now retroactively state that Hoopls was your bigger suspect, but there wasn't a sign of it then.

Process of elimination since i was uncertain on you 2 and didn't think you were scum together. And read ain't strong or firm since its math and not based on what has happened in game

Then why didn't you say any of that?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

No, we are letting UA pick the pairs. I'm waiting for UA to respond to my suggestion.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That I want him to pick them, doesn't mean I won't try to change his mind when he makes what I consider to be a bad decision..

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yeah, that seems to work. Not a very satisfying victory, but what can you do?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Is that true? If scum claim odd, we lynch an odd - if we're right, we win by triangle, if we're wrong, we appoint the towniest player to shoot the remaining odd and other two crosskill. So scum have to be the towniest odd and even claim to pull out a win.

So no, not satisfying. I don't think we did all that much more than catch scum Day 1 (and Xalxe wasn't playing all that well); we stumbled into the CES-Fate non-pairing and Fate had me fooled at the end.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Not sure why you're still bothering, Fate.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If you and scot give up, it would save us a whole lot of bother.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

UA proposed it, Fate.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Whatevs. There's no reason why UA would go with your plan anyway.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

His

going with the plan had very little to do with you suggesting it.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

UA thought you were scum; proposing a plan that would see you lose when there's little chance of UA listening to you is good scum behaviour.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

That works just as well now.

Vote: No Lynch

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Finally I can read PF

If he gives you a fool-proof plan that lets the town, he's probably town? Not a very useful metric, Fate.

I'm not sure what to think of the set-up. Day 1 lynch was incredibly important in hindsight. I thought I was looking pretty good come Day 2 but that crosskill plan is hard to game.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You do realise you completely ignored a foolproof plan, right?

That said, most of the credit for the win should go to Hoopla, whoever shot Katsuki(InflatablePie?) and PokerFace for coming up with that final plan.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I WAS CALLIN PF TOWN BEFORE HE HAD THAT FULLPROOF PLAN

At the beginning of the Day, sure. Then I pushed on PF and around the time PF came up with that plan you were yelling at Hoopla for going "PF and Xalxe aren't scum together".

What was your plan though trying to get paired with me? were you hoping I'd say "Well CES seems town and I don't want him to shoot me, so pair me with Fate!" or something along those lines?

I knew I couldn't go for being paired with Scotmany directly - it'd've been too obvious. What I was going for was that either UA would make the counterproposal of CES><Scot since I was so explicitly arguing for CES><PokerFace or that UA would reject my plan in which case I could in good faith argue for a compromise "lynch PokerFace" plan or simply tempt Fate into rebelling against authority with me.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Yeah ok. Poker and Xalxe were both scum imagine that.

DAMNT HOOPS.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

Legitimate mistake.

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PF's plan didn't go into effect because the fact that he proposed it pretty much cleared him, which was all the town needed. Come on now, Fate.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I find Fate fun to play with as long as he doesn't try to claim more credit than he deserves.