Mini 1111: Wait Your Turn, Tex! (GAME OVER)

[Hoopla]

where is anix?

[Hoopla]

VOTE: UltimaAvalon

I guess.

[Hoopla]

Think of it this way, chamber - we've prevented UA from self-voting!

Haha, that's genius.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: PokerFace

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Xalxe

[Hoopla]

And again? Really?

If I'd voted someone else, you'd have definitely have voted me then. You're worried about appearing OMGUSy.

[Hoopla]

Katsuki is okay. Pokerface or Xalxe are better, though - what do you think of Pokerface, Fritz?

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Pokerface

Xalxe can be vigged tonight.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla which one of his buddies is bussing?

Voting Xalxe?

I don't know.

If Pokerface is scum, I think it's quite likely Xalxe is town, though. Pokerface's vote on Xalxe is sheeping logic previously stated by others, but to compensate for this he overjustifies his reasoning, saying essentially the same thing, but lined with a layer of fluff. It doesn't give his post any more weight, but he wants to give the impression his vote has some, so he can't be challenged on it.

Pokerface-scum would have to be incredibly crafty to lay down such a vote on a buddy (for several reasons); bussing D1 is a suboptimal tactic in this game, and Pokerface's vote on Xalxe was his third, locking himself and Xalxe into two of the lead vote getters. At this stage Pokerface was starting to generate enough votes on his wagon, that he'd be wary of becoming the D1 lynch, which is really bad for scum here - propelling your buddy to be your main competition is silly in this situation.

It's possible they're both town, but I don't think it'd be likely for them to both be scum. Pokerface makes more sense of the two of them to be scum, and I think one scum out of these two is more likely than both town. So...

[Hoopla]

That's as far I got

Well obviously if we lynch one of them and they flip scum, I won't shoot the other - but that's what I'm going to do if one flips town.

[Hoopla]

If scum want to bus D1, then I absolutely welcome it - I'd much rather go into N1 in 3:8 with scum having 3 kills, than go into N1 in 4:7 with scum having 4 kills. N1 is going to be a lottery, so I think it's misguided to assume scum's plan is "oh heyyy, I bussed D1, gimme a free pass tonight", when there is a very real chance of at least one getting shot anyway - unless of course, you assume all three scum are bussing, but I don't think that's likely.

In the 4:7 try-to-get-a-mislynch-if-possible tactic, scum go into N1 up against either 3 or 4 vigs, as opposed to a guaranteed 4, with one less scumkill. Even if town shoots relatively accurately, even hitting scum twice in the 4:7 avenue, they're doing no worse than a likely N1 situation in a 3:8 with 4 vigs, where the town has a poor night, perhaps shooting scum 1/4 times.

If scum are bussing, great, if not (and it's probably unlikely unless Fate is masterminding this scumteam somehow) Pokerface isn't scum with Xalxe.

[Hoopla]

The Fate wagon is dumb. When you compare Fate's game actions against those pushing his wagon, it makes me think he is town. The set of Katsuki/AGar/Xalxe/Sudo seem scummier on average than Fate himself. I wouldn't be suprised if there is more than one scum here taking advantage of Fate-hate.

Fate is dumb sometimes, but this isn't atypical for his town game - get used to him and learn to read him in different ways to how you normally would read a player.

[Hoopla]

I have gut town reads on Fritz and UltimaAvalon. Scotmany is a scum gut read, but it's not as strong as the first two reads.

[Hoopla]

For what it's worth, the casual role-info dropping should probably cease, because we want as many N2 vigs alive for tomorrow to give us good chances of winning the game. Telegraphing who's even and who's odd to scum is a bad move. Unless of course this is your subtle way of wifom'ing the scums, in which case, continue (don't really).

[Hoopla]

Fate's pretty obviously town, and I know a dumb townie is going to shoot Fate N1 - but lets please not waste more than one bullet (preferably none, but I'm realistic) on him tonight.

[Hoopla]

Fate's pretty obviously town, and I know a dumb townie is going to shoot Fate N1 - but lets please not waste more than one bullet (preferably none, but I'm realistic) on him tonight.

I think you and I are seeing different things here.

What exactly says he's town?

Entering this game, I was really hoping I'd draw scum or odd-night-vig, just so I was (nearly) guaranteed to get to kill someone - I suspect someone like Fate was operating under the same mentality. His earlier postings of worrying about being killed N1 seem very genuine and though scum don't want to die, it seems more fitting with being an N2 vig, as scum would still get to fire a bullet N1 anyway.

Although he's improving his scumgame, the frenzied and passionate defenses are difficult to fake. These posts are riddled with self-meta evaluations and hollow wifom defenses - Fate would be less inclined to defend himself in such a manner as scum, because it is something that naturally seems scummy. This looks like pure emotion which is why he isn't bound by such worries. I'm pretty confident he is an N2 vig, in which case, I hope nobody targets him and we force mafia to waste a bullet on him, if they want one less threat on N2.

[Hoopla]

Looks like my gambit is working already Hoops.

Heheheheheh

I think you're retroactively considering your play a gambit to cover your tracks, but whatever. I don't really care.

[Hoopla]

Because it would be easier for me to help convince the town you're town if you didn't do stuff like "HAYY I'M DOING GAMBIT LOLLLLLL, LOOK AT MEEEE" - my goal here is to convince the townies not to shoot you, forcing scum to waste a bullet on you (if they too believe you're a N2 vig), but I doubt I'm going to get that to happen. I think it's your fault though for making this so difficult.

[Hoopla]

What do you think are the benefits of letting a possibly fake-claiming scum live over lynching?
Do you believe scum will use all of their shots N1?

The benefits of letting a possibly fake-claiming scum live are exactly the same as the benefits of letting any other player live. It's not really a point at all, because we're all one of two roles as town. Fate hasn't claimed N2 vig, though this is what has been implied and picked up.

I don't know what scum will do - it will depend on how safe they feel, and possibly how many N1 vig shots they're up against. I don't think theorising scum's night tactics for them is sensible, as I don't see how it helps us make a plan for something now.

[Hoopla]

I guess what I essentially want to ask is, do you think it is possible fate is trying to play even-night vig in order to save his shot?

Because I can totally see fate doing this. In fact, it fits perfectly into what amounts to his mad genius.

I think it's less likely Fate is faking it as scum. The fear of not being able to get to use a shot was pretty lucid, which lends credibility to the tell - it seemed like a pretty natural build-up, rather than scum trying to force a passage of play just to drop that supposed town tell. It's possible he's faking this, but it's a little convoluted to assume it was a scumplan from the outset, as it depends on Fate choosing to play in a manner replicating a town role, which in turn depends on Fate even thinking to do this. He then has to execute it convincingly too. Sure, it's an option, but the simplest solution is generally going to be more likely, and in this case, the simplest solution is that his actions have stemmed from being an N2 vig.

UA already said most of it, but the main problem that I have with Fate is that he's doing anything to convince us that he's not scum, so much as screaming at us for thinking it. His only defense so far has been meta, which is WIFOM at best- claiming that he must be town because his meta says it doesn't amount to anything, because meta can be faked. So why don't you calm down, and start playing as actual town?

Yeah, I agree with this too. It's very frustrating to have to deal with someone who constantly defends themself via self-evaluation of their own meta - anyone aware of their own meta has the ability to manipulate it. Meta is only useful when a player doesn't realise, can't stop, or can't predict that a particular piece of their playing is telling. That needs to be judged by others.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Xalxe

[Hoopla]

Boo Hoopla. Don't let Pokerface get away simply by being inactive!

P.S. Fate bringing up the daytalk thing like that I consider to be a slight town tell.

I had a mild epiphany, actually, more like a realisation that Pokerface's wagon doesn't make sense if he's scum. If Pokerface is town, I think the scumteam is Xalxe, scotmany, then two of Sudo, chamber, Katsuki, CES.

Help me kill Xalxe please...

[Hoopla]

^Now there's a gambit, so much of that wall seems just... phony. Questioning my PR read on Fate, hmmm...

[Hoopla]

heheheehehehehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

JUST SHOWS YOU CAN'T PREDICT FATE

I honestly think this is your intention sometimes, "IMA DO SUMTHIN CRAZYYY, U CANT READ ME COS IM GAMBIT MASTERURRRBATER, UGHGGHGNVHNE". Yeah, you are hard to read, I guess?. "HURRRR HURR I'M GAMBITTINGGGG THO". Okay, whatever.

[Hoopla]

Mind sharing your epiphany?

P.S. including me in that list is unlikely to get me to help.

I think PokerFace's wagon ballooned too quickly for it to happen without scum influence somewhere on that wagon, and unless scum are being idiots, they shouldn't be recklessly bussing like that on Day 1. The other wagons competing with Pokerface until then never really developed as viable candidates, and even now, still haven't reached any sort of tipping point - I'd expect if we managed to get scum wagoned so well, there'd be more fight from the other wagons on the peripheral.

The Xalxe wagon is what I expect a scum wagon to look like in this game - collecting a couple of votes despite higher than average amounts of suspicion wafting from the slot, but not really going anywhere. That says to me, he is seen as scummy, but isn't being punished for it votes-wise, meaning scum might not have their hand in this wagon. These thoughts are a lot more clear in my head and I appologise for my lack of eloquence, but I really think Xalxe is the right play now.

I'm less clear on Fate now, as I mentioned just before. Though it might not be worthwhile for scum to bus hard, I'd expect they wouldn't ignore each other completely, and Scot's vote on Xalxe looks very much like early distancing. It's scummy because it's done at a time where Xalxe's wagon was never really the big favourite for the noose, making the bus safer - less likely to produce a lynch, but still heavy suspicion to gain town points. The rest of my scumreads are mostly from process of elimination via the way of my town reads, and where I expect scum to be on the wagons we've had so far. Sudo is gut admittedly - he has been far too passive and is lacking curiosity. I don't think he is active lurking, but I think he is coasting.

[Hoopla]

P.S. I'm not sure what to make of how Fate-orientated Hoopla has been.

As opposed to how nobody-oriented you've been.

You might have a point though, I've probably cluttered the thread too much with trying to figure out Fate's alignment, but I'm just worried about mislynching today, because it is so much more important than usual. I feel like we need to have at least 2 scum down by the start of D2 to have a chance, but I have severe doubts we can do it with two vig shots on N1.

I just hope we get lucky and end up in a 2:3 or 2:4 - something like that, with at least one or two N2 vigs. The good thing about tomorrow is, a massclaim forces scum to pick which pool they want to be in, and we know how many scum are in each pool, because we know the amount of PR's. This might be a very handy way to narrow down scumpartners tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Hmm. Your first 2 paragraphs here (preview: in #177) suggest a distribution of scum among the 2 wagons that doesn't seem to mesh with your town reads, i.e. 4/6 on Pokerfacewagon belong to your town list and Xalxe's more suspicious than the amount of votes indicate but none of the voters are on your town list and you call out scotmany's vote as being distancing.

Personally I don't like this type of argumentation which essentially assumes that the scum group as a whole acts predictably (as opposed to arguments that deal with individuals), but I can't resist a bigger wagon.

Unvote, vote: Xalxe

Yeah, I can see what you are saying. I think the take-away point from my post was that, if PokerFace is scum, I'd expect other wagons to be pushed a lot harder, and his not to have grown so quickly. I know my reads won't be 100% accurate, and I have somebody wrong somewhere, but the way the wagons developed seems to indicate PF town - I suppose a lot of it is gut and trying to predict scum's attitudes toward the game, but I think I have a pretty good vibe for this sort of thing, because I've read so many minis. Explaining it and convincing people is always hardest. It is all about the atmosphere. Too many people were just sitting back and letting the Pokerface wagon happen.

Thanks for joining, though.

[Hoopla]

that could be telling of one of his buddies especially since hoopla said

For what it's worth, the casual role-info dropping should probably cease, because we want as many N2 vigs alive for tomorrow to give us good chances of winning the game. Telegraphing who's even and who's odd to scum is a bad move. Unless of course this is your subtle way of wifom'ing the scums, in which case, continue (don't really).

and followed that up with:

Entering this game, I was really hoping I'd draw scum or odd-night-vig, just so I was (nearly) guaranteed to get to kill someone

So first you say we shouldn't claim or wifom it and then you totatally just did one of those things and pointed to the scum to off Fate? And I thought you said Fate was town?

I have severe doubts the town will ever not suspect Fate, so by convincing scum he is an N2 vig, I am solving the problem for us without wasting the lynch. The Fate wagon still sucks, and is ridiculously forced. Xalxe has no idea how to read Fate, and has just rattled off a giant post assigning generic tells to a non-generic player. He is the go-to wagon for scum.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla will probably be here shortly with more convincing theories, reasons, and statistics, but I'll throw out some made up ones for ya while you wait:

No-lynching isn't as clear cut and obviously-bad as most other games - it fleetingly crossed my mind earlier in the game. Such a high amount of vigs minimises the importance of the lynch, and if no-lynching meant it improved the chances for more N2 vigs surviving until tomorrow, then it's worth at least considering.

I think the reason why it's probably suboptimal, is that a no-lynch means all the N1 vigs are shooting without a confirmed alignment to work with, which might reduce accuracy somewhat. It is a bad result to go into night in 4:7, but it's probably on par with 4:8 and no confirmed info to work with. It's a completely subjective measure of how much that info is worth, but if the difference between 4:7 and 4:8 is slim like I think, it makes more sense to lynch, and then open up the possibility of a 3:8 N1

and

more info to work with. I think a lot of the towns' chance at winning resides in eliminating a scum before they get to use a kill - that's a very big swing in town's favour. And given there is a higher ratio of scum to townies, we should theoretically have a better chance of lynching one than usual.

Xalxe is that scum.

[Hoopla]

P.S. Could you answer the question I asked you in #198, Hoopls?

I still think only one of them is scum, but I've increasingly began to think Pokerface is town based on how his wagon formed. Xalxe is scum, but you know my position on this. I don't know why you needed to ask that - I thought my positions on these two players have been pretty well known and updated regularly enough.

[Hoopla]

Entering this game, I was really hoping I'd draw scum or odd-night-vig, just so I was (nearly) guaranteed to get to kill someone

How does this make sense as a softclaim...?

This passage describes my mindset prior to the game - I was using that state of feeling to describe and possibly explain Fate's action. That quote has zero bearing on my role.

~~

Hoopla, the question was prompted by posts #187 and #188. Pokerface says he leans scum on Hoopla and Fate, then chooses to vote for you despite the fact that a Fatevote would've had way more impact on the game, notably right after Xalxe went after Fate.

If anything, that is a town tell - Pokerface could quite easily have elected to create a "me vs. him" dilemma, pushing Fate's wagon, or even anyone else with votes. Scum leading vote counts (especially close to lynch) are likelier to bundle onto the next highest vote getter, as they stand to lose more by being lynched, thus making it the rational play to bring someone else into contention (or closer to contention). It's possible the vote can be interpreted as avoiding responsibility, but I don't think it is scummy either way.

[Hoopla]

Sudo, when you don't end up getting your Fate lynch, will you hop on the Xalxe wagon?

[Hoopla]

If it became a certainty why would it even matter where my vote was? Your response to your wagon thus far lacks the usual townie passion/outrage/anger of being lynched - it's hard to conjure up such emotions when you know you're a liar.

[Hoopla]

Katsuki, Pokerface, the deadline is today/tonight (I think) - I hate working out timezones (Flay, you should use the countdown feature). Stop sucking and start voting Xalxe - it's time to compromise and start shifting your votes, you don't post cases 6 hours from the deadline, because even if they're convincing you won't be able to get the numbers.

Hurry up.

[Hoopla]

InflatablePie, if you're town, vote for Xalxe. I don't want to have to give you a bullet to the face.

[Hoopla]

Massclaim tomorrow - force scum to split up into separate pools to minimise the possible scumteams. We know how many of each PR exist which is very handy in narrowing the possibilities. Hopefully some of our N2 vigs survive.

[Hoopla]

Good job townies, I knew you'd come through in the end!