Stars Aligned III - The Tenth Day
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Let this be a lesson as we approach smaller majorities. It's not a good idea to throw a few votes down, prior to organising the night actions.
We should determine who is to be lynched, without votes (if possible, and I think it will be possible most of the time) and then organise and then votes.
The combination of players that feel they can just pop in with a two line (if that!) post and vote for somebody, and things like suicidal and the ability to self vote means we could be fucked with night actions very easily.
If BS had waited for one more vote before self voting and if she had suicidal, we'd have been screwed.- Seacore
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Okay, so my initial assumption was that I was hit by a murderer, because I got a fetish night before last.
So the cult should have had to craft one before they could ritual me, therefore, murderer must have stabbed. So we have a murderer out there.
However, there was no cult kill. And I just re-read the rules on craft fetish and it says nothing about not being able to craft one even if you have one already. You just can't do it on the same turn that you pass one. So maybe they had two in the bank. I've been hearing noise every night so it's possible.
So we may not have a murderer out there afterall
Need everybody's claims first.
Also, thanks a bunch whoever rezzed me, you're a fucking champ.- Seacore
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I don't have much to add except for an idea. We currently test for paranoia, distraction and sadism.
When should we start testing for suicidal? Obviously Benmage will be excused, but at some point, we should be regularly bringing everybody to L-1 (after determining night actions).
I think sucidial is one of those insanities that the scum have taken, figuring that if they get to that point, they were probably dead anyway.- Seacore
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I know discussing scum targets and the reasons for those targets is usually WIFOM but if cult targeted me last night there were nights of planning involved.
On Night 1 they gave me a fetish.
On Night 5 they attempted to kill me.
Therefore on Night 2 they fetished me again
Night 3 they repeated the fetish of me
Night 4 they gave me one of the two fetishes.
That's a significant amount of work, which means one of three things is true.
1) They've been doing that for a bunch of us, which means nobody who gets a fetish is safe the next night
2) They did it to me by random
3) They did it to me because I'm a threat.
I don't think I've been, planning wise, any more of threat than, let's say, Hito or xvart.
So maybe my scum lists have been on target?- Seacore
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Kunk, assuming we aren't in Mylo (or even close to it) that would be an awesome outcome. Not as good as lynching a scum, but I'll trade one of us for one of them any day of the week. Hell, if we hit scum with tonight's kill, assuming scum succeed in killing one of us, then that means we're at 11v4. I'd be willing to trade 2 for 1.kunk wrote:@Seacore: The immediate issue I see with suicidal testing is scum quickhammering for a mislynch, even if it outs one of them.
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Benmage, I'd like to at least see your draft stalk plan, whether or not we go with it.
Andrius, there's a few too many people at the moment to do suicidal checks, it would be so painful, especially considering we have players who don't turn up very often.
What we should do, maybe in a day or two, is organise for X players to be online at the same time (where X is the number needed to L-1) and just vote for everbody in turn. The only fear I have is not that scum will hammer, it's that players who don't really read the game will hammer. We've got too many of those at the moment.
But apart from that, on Day 8 we should have 13 players left. Meaning L-1 is 6 players. We should be able to russle up 6 players to do the suicidal checks.
As for the other insanities. Like I said in an earlier post (day 4 maybe?), out of the 15 insanities that cultists can take, 3 are "safe", 5 are "testable" (we already test for 4 of them and suicidal can be tested soon) and 7 are, to varying degrees, painful for scum.
I'm off to do some maths and I'll be back.- Seacore
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@xvart... interesting... I'll be looking into all of your claimed actions as soon as I'm on a PC that can easily flick back and forth between pages (I'm got the shortened page issue on this work computer)
Also, I'm back with my promised maths.
Baby Spice had 5 insanity points when she died on Day 5
Spyrex had 4 insanity points when he died on Day 4.
One of spyrex's insanity points is explained away by a grave rob (he unlikely performed the 2nd graverob since he knew scum would ward the corpse)
Therefore Baby Spice has 5 untracable insanity points
And Spyrex has 3 untracable insanity points
There are 5 other cultists.
Let's assume that they hare spreading their insanity points thin. And lets also look at a minimum insanity scenario.
It was possible for none of them to have insanity points from N0, they could crafted fetishes by 2s instead of 3s.
N1 - 3 points minimum - Ritual
N2 - 3 points minimum - Ritual
N3 - 4 points minimum - Ritual + Warding DGB
N4 - 3 points minimum - Ritual
N5 - 3 points minimum - Ritual
N1 - BS + Spyrex + C3
N2 - BS + Spyrex + C4
N3 - 2xBS + Spyrex + C5
N4 - BS + C6 + C7
N5 - C3 + C4 +C5
So assuming these minimum actions, 3 cultists have 2 insanities, 2 cultists have 1.
2 things should be noted,
these might already be counted, from unprovable night claims. So I think we should look closely at anybody who has stalked and not followed through, and anybody who has communed.
some actions are provable (to an extent) so these insanities would be on top of those.
An updated insanity list including what people did to get the insanity points would be awesome.- Seacore
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@xvart, is there any evidence that you didn't kill N1? Considering you've just stated that a murderer would get the success even if another murderer (MOI) did the act?
From memory, there isn't any evidence that MoI was warded, because you were one of two claimants on that. Who was the other?
Is there any evidence that El Goosuki was warded N1? By you?
Actually, you could have tried to kill whoever the ritual target was N1 too, there were two rez claimers on that too.
I'm not saying I think you're already a murderer, the odds of both you and MoI picking LB are long, but I'm going by the book.
In other news, I just had a look at the insanity tally. Assuming nobody (except spyrex once) has shirked on their graverobbing duties, since I think that'd be risky) if AV, Kunk or Plum are cultists, they have hidden insanities.
Anybody else could just just claimed to have received a fetish / communed. And ritualled instead.- Seacore
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It might be a good idea for people to try and prove how they got their insanities, but I don't know how possible that would be.
1 of my insanities comes from graverobbing, another comes from a stalk that i'll be able to prove with tonight's murder.
But the other 4 are basically unprovable. I've had two fetishes passed to me, I've stalked a warded stalkee and I've nearly been killed.
Will it be any easier for people with lower insanities? I'm seeing a lot of fetish passing and communing.- Seacore
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sigh, of course. I'm way to tired for this game right now.
As for your L-2 plan. It doesn't do anything special. It's still an organisational and logistical nightmare to get everybody, in turn, to L-2 and then have them vote themselves (with the exception of xvart and benmage who have admitted to suicidal)- Seacore
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AV, I have already said all of this. I think we should wait two days and then start doing it. We lynch Nico today, lynch plum tomorrow and then start doing it.AV wrote:^To add to this, notice that BabySpice took Suicidal. Presumably he discussed his insanities with the cult. I think they could all have potentially garnered a hankering for suicide.- Seacore
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Really murky to be honest. I find myself assuming town and but I'm really suspicious of that assumption because I don't know where it came from.What is your read on kunkstar?
Actually, I think it came from when I was trying to push that DGB lynch against the MOI and kunk wagons.
But still, he seems town enough, but ... yeah.- Seacore
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Yeah AV, I actually agree with that.
I think I'm fairly confirmed, assuming Triglav doesn't come in and say that he was also the subject of a kill attempt. But given that nobody else has claimed to have successfully rezzed, then that's unlikely.
So unless i'm the product of a crazy scum gambit, I'm town.
The other side of things, about who claimed stalk targets in what order is also a good point. Yes the scum know who heard noises, but there's communes, first aids and inverstigates flying around as well as stalks, so they couldn't have known who.
I think Iec should complete the kill.
AV, I think you should flip a coin as to which one of us you first aid.- Seacore
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And in the case that you, AV, are cult, If other people feel the need to Rez either myself or Iec, go ahead. There's always the chance that scum start greater ritualling with all 5/4 of them, so double up rezzes aren't bad.
In other news, unless Triglav says he rezzed me, Nico turns into mostly town.
And we should lynch the bejeezus out of Plum.- Seacore
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I don't like TNM's statement that if his kill doesn't go through we can kill him tomorrow. That's not a town statement. If he's targeted scum there's a chance they'll protect that person, over protecting AV or Andrius (in the assumption that one of them is scum) just because it provides a mislynch.
Although, here's a fun point.
There are 5 scum, two of them are bloody. Which means three at max have first aid kits. And if they've been spreading the ritual around, probably even less.- Seacore
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Yes, it is still a good idea because the almost certainly know your target anyway.
Scum know which among them have heard things
Town have told the truth about hearing things.
Scum know what they've done
Town have told the truth about what they've done.
Therefore scum almost certainly already know who you've stalked. So what we're asking for you to do is reveal it to the town.
Revealing stalk targets is the only way we can confirm town.
Lets say we didn't reveal our stalk targets.
I kill AV tonight.
Iec then says "hey, so did I"
Neither of us are confirmed.
Scum have very very very few first aids. 3 at absolute most, probably less. Therefore they can't easily rez your target.
And you were wrong about the murder/ritual thing.
Murder resolves first, so the target is murdered. The ritual then fails to resolve because there's nobody alive. It's been spelled out previously by the mod, I just can't find where.
Also, I don't like what you've said about "if you're not confirmed we should lynch you" That's not a town thing to say. You should be scum hunting during the day and depending on your findings and also your pro town behaviour to keep you alive, not what appeares to be a last minute stall of you trying to stay alive just one more night.
If you don't declare who you've stalked, you can claim to have attempted to murder the ritual target. And then you have have one of your cult buddies claim to have rezzed the ritual target. Hell, he'll even be bloody enough to prove it, because he killed the guy with you.
But I'm done arguing with you, we're all done arguing with you. Claim or die.
If you are town, even if you think we're all wrong, are you willing to have us lynch a townie over this debate?- Seacore
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BM, don't start voting.
Let's organise all the night actions
To do list before we lynch either TNM or Plum
1. Get Triglav's night claim
2. Make a final decision as to who kills who.
3. Finalise other night actions in a formal Hito-esque post
Once these are done we can progress to lynching.
Hell, once we do those three we can even try out some suicidal tests, although I think it's too cumbersome at the moment. If we do do it, whoever is going to be our lynch for the day must be one of the first to vote in each test.- Seacore
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TNM, as Feysal has put, it is more important for us to watch scum reactions than to confirm townies.
Declare your target.
If you hit scum, scum either die or they save the person. If you die in the night and they save your declared target we've probably found scum
If you hit town, scum either let you do it and you're confirmed, or they spend a first aid kit and their ritual on a target of your choosing.
If you ARE scum, you'll get caught, or try to claim that scum has rezzed your target and is staying quiet about it. If that's the case we kill you, and if you flip town, we kill your target.
If you don't declare:
Maybe you get confirmed.
If you dont' get confirmed and you are town, we mislynch.- Seacore
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I've read over all this very quickly because it's the weekend and I'm at my parents place with shit to do.
However, at a glance, Trilo has some good points. DGB was warded, but combined with Spyrex, I know it looks bad. As far as insanity points go, it was neutral, spyrex gained a point for warding rather than grave robbing. Benmage's counter about easy dust if we were both scum is strong.
As for the argument about whether BS or DGB did the robbing, I didn't closely read trilo's postings there, or go back and read over the actual posts where it happened, but my memory is that, before the final vote as to which method we would use, I had substituted the names in. The reason I did that then, is that it was the 'natural' way the votes were sitting. The only reason BS got up at the end was that people had jumped off DGB to either vote for MoI to finish the day or to try and find an alternative because they didn't want to lynch MoI.
But whatever. I am more than happy to do the kill. I await some kind of final declaration and will remove myself from the discussion about whether it's me or Iec.- Seacore
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I've had a think, and I'm not sure about lynching TNM
If TNM is scum, he cannot murder VPB. Which means scum have to do it. Hito raises a good point about the rezzing, but there's always the chances that multiple rezzes hit VPB anyway.
If TNM is town, he might murder VPB (who may or may not be scum) and he'll be confirmed.
The real point, however, is we can kill TNM tomorrow after he's had a chance to confirm himself.
Do I think he'll be confirmed? No, I think he's scum. But it can wait a single day when we have an awesome lynch candidate in Plum.
Depending on how we're going for time after everything gets organised, I'm okay with some suicidal testing.
Iec and I should be tested, with the other standing in ready to kill AV should one of us die from having suicidal.
TNM should be tested.- Seacore
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Also, I've been thinking that someone should stalk me tonight.
Trilo made a decent case against me, one that I think cult might find too tempting to ignore, so I think I'm a good candidate for them to fuck with. Especially since i don't think I'm murdering cult anymore, so AV will be a good ritual target.
So tomorrow, if AV is dead due to ritual, I'll be an obvious (mis)lynch. So to avoid that, someone should be in a position to murder me.
Murdering me (if necessary) confirms somebody else, saves us the lynch for somebody who might actually be scum, and stops messing with my murder being so tempting to the cult.
Thoughts?- Seacore
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Ah, true AV, so the only way (from my POV of knowing I'm town) of cult messing with me is if you are cult, if we both survive the night, you should be lynched, and if you die from ritual, I should be lynched.
Worst case scenario, cult ritualled one of their own to mislynch me, which is a decent trade in my books.
Ah, I'm feeling much better about that.- Seacore
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Indeed, we should.
Just to work this through and see if I'm missing something
Our stalk/murder/confirm strategy is designed to have Person A murder Person B. Person B should First Aid somebody so that First Aid cannot work on them.
Person B should be declared as "Murdered" during the next Day's opening post, and thus Person B will be confirmed.
Negative Outcome 1: If Person B is dead from Ritual, since a murder action should have been successful due to Person B using First Aid and thus being immune to First Aid themselves, Person B likely did not murder and should be lynched.
Potential Issue: Person B may have been scum, who did not use first aid, had one his cultist buddies first aid him instead and then got ritualled for the purpose of making Person A look guilty. This is a fine trade, and cult are welcome to do this.
Negative Outcome 2: If Person B is still alive, Person B likely used first aid and got rezzed. Person B should be lynched.
Potential Issue: Person A may not have actually murdered, and lynching Person B will be lynching town. However Person A will have outted themselves as scum. At this stage of the game, that's fine, but it could get dangerous as we approach late game.
Have I covered everything? - Seacore
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