Open 279 - Rusty Guillotine Mafia - Game Over!

[Percy]

Change that bullshit AVATAR

Vote: Fate

[Percy]

[Percy]

OK, had a nasty summer flu, now I'm reading and writing as I go.

I like LuckayLuck. His first post stank of pure town.
Simenon parroting LuckayLuck in his first post was less town.
I'm with VP on the question of "why didn't you ask X about Y" crap. Saying "Hey everyone, not leaving anyone out here, and my generic question is what is pro-town?!" is useless.
I don't get his vote on Concission, though.

Antitown faking a post restriction?

lolwut

The randomly generated lynch mechanic.

lolwut

Still, crypto did say that he thought that the guillotined player didn't have a vote, and VP didn't say boo about it. Add in:

3) Town players are more likely to be thinking about how this setup can best be approached in the early stages of the game.

Hmmm.

While I'm thinking about this, here are my thoughts on the setup:

Basically, whilst there are some cool PRs that interact in new ways with the new lynch mechanic, it's still a lynch. The thing we have to be wary of is delayed flips - we're not going to be certain when we're in LyLo. The vig might be able to help us out here.

The Redeemed Soul should only claim (before being placed on the guillotine) if the Lengthy Roleblocker has died and flipped.

A tracker guilty is as good as a cop guilty, as no other town have actions during the night.

...and that's about it.

The vig should shoot the first person we put on guillotine. Since we cannot no-lynch, it is important to get that kill through so that we have an odd number of players. Best chance to do that is to shoot while the scum have the largest number of potential RB targets. Also, early information FTW.

I don't think this is right.

D1 - 14 players, guillotine one.
N1 - 13 players after mafia NK.
D2 - If vig triggers early death for guillotined player, we're back to an even number of players.

I don't see what you're trying to get at here.

We will probably want the vig and the redeemed soul to claim early. Not today, obv, but maybe tomorrow. If either gets CCed, we've gained a coinflip. If neither do, we have the beginnings of a sweet little voting bloc and will force the scum to kill them off, thus protecting our tracker.

This is a good point. Still, the vig can be neutralised by the roleblocker. I'd say that using the power early and claiming before you shoot is correct vig play here.

I really hope you're scum, because if you're not then this is just disappointing.

This was @Anti, and the tone here is a little off-putting. Still, I think VP is probably frustrated town at this point, but oh boy have I read him wrong before.

We've got like... 3(?) mislynches...

Yes, we have three mislynches.

I like AGM for town.

I'll explain in more depth eventually, but heres a hint: Fate's doing utterly nothing.

Fate is full of sound and fury at the best of times...

BABY WHAT IS LOVE LOVE?

Percy will do fine by herself anyway.

Voting is a tool, not a liability.

Truth. But

If you think he's scum. The first thing you should do is to vote, not unvote him.

...?

Anyway, I have to go to bed, it's late. I'll gather my thoughts into something coherent tomorrow.

[Percy]

Sweet, luck today, alamaster tomorrow and then it's easy mode imo.

@mod: since town wins with 2 scum dead & one on the guillotine; that means if we lynch 2 scum and have a 3rd scum on guillotine the game will immediately end without us having to play out that next day while the 3rd scum is already gonna die, right?

~``tick tock tick tock lick luck and clean his clock``~

This question to the mod seems like a question for the sake of a question. Whether the mod responded yes or no, it would make no difference to the way we play the game. I also don't understand his reads on Luck or AGM at all.

He explains it a bit here:

fyi, nothing to bank on [but not something to forget] once we lynch 2 scum correctly; any future mislynches become pseudo-reedemed souls;
most extreme example is 2 correct lynches & then we have 3 mislynches; everytime we threw someone on the guillotine & the game didn't end we'd know the person was clear since if they were the final mafia member the game would end & thus we could trust them since we don't have to play out a 3rd scum lynch

This is true. However, I still maintain that this seems much more like setup speculation for the sake of setup speculation, especially after VP Baltar established the "townies think about the setup and try to maximise the town potential" argument. Seriously, why are we thinking about what happens after we lynch two scum successfully when we're yet to lynch a single one?

zoraster's disconnect in who is scum is troubling too willing to forgive in some of his list & too unwilling in other parts I wouldn't expect could possibly be just bad judgement or scum being selective will have to watch the guy

Explain in full, please. zoraster claimed the following reads:
Simenon scum
crypto town
Ythill null
VP Baltar mild scum
Luck null
Concission scum

You appear to think that Luck is more scummy than zoraster, but what other reads do you disagree with? You haven't established your reads on most of the players listed, so...?

in before someone...

Statements like these make ne , simply because I think about things like this a lot more when I'm scum, and this self-consciousness sticks out.

You then go on to say you like Jarti's post. I can't disagree more.

Hmmmmmmmm. Whilst Jarti is leaning scum for me, LuckayLuck is eroding my townread of him.

The other players I wanted to re-read are VPB, Concission, Simenon and Antitown.

VP Baltar

The thing I noticed on my re-read was his read of Antitown. He's fairly clear on his scumread here, and without Antitown posting he declares the wagon/read "too easy" here. In between, Antitown didn't post at all. The only thing that changed was that Ythill said he was town, and Simenon echoing Fate's argument that keeping your RVS vote for too long is a scumtell. Also crypto jumped on the wagon. What in particular made you change your mind, VP?

I'm just trying to find out if AT is actually scum or simply a stubborn ass noob that is clutching to a bad argument out of pride.

This is twice that the VP-sass has been deployed against Antitown. This is the kind of trap I set as scum - try to establish a noob/scum paradigm, if the player comes and participates and demonstrates non-noob then they must be scum, if they don't then they're useless and worth lynching even if they're not scum. This kind of argument really bothers me.
Also,

2) I would like to find out crypto's alignment early so I know if I can trust him or not. Town alliance ftw.

Since this post, you haven't explained/elaborated on your crypto read. Do you trust him or not??

Antitown

Possibly more to come, but I'll wait on VP before saying anything.

His declaration that Fate is scum was met with "this is garbage" from VP, and then there was a simple "no u" response when VP accused him of avoiding questions. I don't know why waiting on VP was important for him to produce content and/or explain his reads.

I still like LL's original point that Antitown was trying to blend in early game, also.

Concission

Well turns out Concission hasn't posted since I posted, and her cognitive dissonance between "voting is a tool not a liability" and "you have a responsibility to vote your scumreads" is still super-weird.

Simenon

I also think that there is scum nibbling on the Antitown wagon, but I don't think it was VBP, and I don't know who it is yet (LL is one of them, the instigator).

Er, you parroted LL when he brought up the blending-in point and joined the wagon. Now you're saying LL is scum *and* implying others attacking Antitown are scum. So what is it about the case on Antitown that makes you now think he's not only town, but that scum are targeting him? Why the 180?

Fate's play this game has been totally forgettable. I don't know if this is a town- or a scumtell yet.

Unvote, Vote: VP Baltar

[Percy]

Hi guys, I've been really sick. I'll read and post today

[Percy]

Still v. sick, sorry everyone. I will post within 24 hours!

[Percy]

OK fellas, I'm doped to the eyeballs! It's WALL TIEM! Wheeeee!

I never have thought AT hasn't been scummy, because he has and I didn't let my pressure off of him, but people like SD and Simenon chirping around the wagon without doing any of the work did give me pause. Still does.

Double negative hellooooo
But when you say "this wagon is too easy" that is taking the pressure off.

And yeah I know you're a sassmonster, I like a bit of sass too. But it wasn't being sassy that I was going about, it was the fact that you're sassing Antitown and the way you're doing it.

try to establish a noob/scum paradigm, if the player comes and participates and demonstrates non-noob then they must be scum, if they don't then they're useless and worth lynching even if they're not scum. This kind of argument really bothers me.

This is a pretty huge assumption you are making here. When have you ever seen me want to policy lynch anyone as town? I think about 2 seconds of meta would out me as scum if I ever made such a statement. Maybe that's how you play scum, but not me...so perhaps its best to consider what I'm saying as the actual truth.

Hmmmm. You missed my point; I wasn't trying to say you were going for a policy lynch. What I was saying was that this kind of play seems designed to get Antitown lynched. If he did come in and noob all over the place, as you seem to be saying he is, then lynching him will be easier not because you're going to advocate a policy lynch, but because it will seem like less of a loss if he does flip town.

But reading over that paragraph I feel like I'm stretching. Blergh.

My statement was more about Luck's increasing scumminess than the timetable, but I can see how it could be

taken that way.

Soooooo, LL is so scummy that we need to lynch within 72 hours of the game starting. And yet, he flips back to me at the drop of a hat because I'm the leading wagon. Pardon if I find this more than a touch convenient to a scum's interests of 1) ending the day quickly 2) getting VPB out of the game. Now, also pay heed to the fact that LL hasn't even posted since Ythill was 'ZOMG LYNCH NAO'ing.

This is an OK point, as long as you ignore the first sentence. His quote indicates he intended the exact opposite of what you then said.

@Percy: That's not a contradiction. I'm saying anti should have voted Fate when he was saying Fate is scum either to pressure or to mean a lynch.

When you say "X should vote a certain way", you're saying that people have a liability to vote certain ways, to use their vote in certain circumstances. But you also said that it was a tool, not a liability, to defend yourself for voting VP. It is a flat-out contradiction. Maybe it's not a scumtell, but you can't have this both ways.

Let's take a look Anti-town's voting record/contribution (keep in mind I'm doing this off pure memory, not his ISO, because his play is that concise):

-Vote Fate for RVS
-Leave it on for mysterious reasons he refuses to explain
-Take it off when my behavior doesn't improve or change at all
-Repeat Percy's stance on me as his own, waffling every which way
-Vote VP at Ythill's request.

Yup.

Not bad, Fate.

The number of people pushing it in a short amount of time bothered me, and LL was a better target anyway.

Well you didn't mention that you felt that the wagon was scummy when you left it to vote LL here, you pointed out a scumtell here on Antitown and say later that you were trying to defend him somehow, and you don't actually say why the others on the wagon are scum at all - you only identify LL here without giving reasons, since you seem to believe LL is independently scummy at this point. This is pretty fishy.

LL on Jarti:

His explanation for why he asked the question (he didn't even do it in a way that 'explained', he just did it in a matter of fact way...which furthers my belief that he's a townie) was just very good. I don't think a scum would think too much on 'what happens if two scum die and then a townie is put on the guillotine.' Even if they do, I like the way he presented his train of thought. It was done in a townie way.

And that is why I like Jarti's last post and why I have flipped Jarti from 'scum' to 'probably townie' pretty quick.

I've already said that I thought it was a question for the sake of a question, and LL seems to agree with me on that. But LL is trying to argue that it's too strange a question for scum to be asking. I disagree with this read strongly.

percury i never established that it was the reads I disagreed with; it was how he came to some reads not feeling matched up to some others mainly his thoughts on luck vs thoughts on sim & con

errrrr...

zoraster's disconnect in who is scum is troubling

For the record, this is what zoraster said:

Simenon is scum. He points out a case on someone then immediately hedges with a potential meta-defense. His fixation on Ythill posting thoughts about the setup before posting thoughts about the game is bizarre and a half-ass attack....

Luck isn't as scummy as people have made out, I don't think. That's a gut call, but I think people are stretching to make it stick. That's fine in the beginning, but I see more promising avenues.

Concission is combative without providing any real help to the town. I suggest people go back and actually read his "contributions" to the game. It's not just that he's had trouble getting purchase on the game as can happen, but it's that he's trying to seem active by picking some pretty pointless things to quibble over. Admittedly, his posts have come earlier on in the game. I'm looking for improvement from him, but I'm saying scum for now.

So for me that leaves Concission and Simenon as the best lynch candidates. I'd love to hear more from Jarti and to a lesser extent RedC and Almaster.

Now you seem to be inviting Luck onto your wagon, so you don't seem to think he's scummy either. You threw the accusation at zoraster that his scumreads were disconnected, but I don't see how they are or why you think so.

I happen to agree with his approach to the game (for the most part, that is. Percy shot down his first point, and his third point needed a little clarification, but it was in the right general place).

So the right general place is a case on VP, right?

I agree with both of these points, but disagree with your VPB case in general. Ythill's point are better, imo. I mean, does Concission just seem more honest to you? I'm having trouble seeing the issue with VPB at that juncture. Maybe he was a touch defensive, but I think you're blowing it out of proportion.

You can't see the case, but like Ythill for making a case against VP?
This is a very waffly, contradictory read to have on someone who's being wagonned. Clarification?

But you still think AT is scum, right? I guess that's what keeping me from saying that you're right and Percy is just misguided at best or scum at worse.

Say whaaaat? Where does this even come from?

This post by crypto was awesome. In particular,

AGM's exact words: "Jarti seems to fit the profile of the 'lurkerscum' pretty well." Watch this. "Seems . . . fit . . . profile of . . . pretty well." Don't know about you guys, but to me it smells an awful lot like AGM fears of taking a stance and/or has a vested interest in keeping his options open.

I really like language tells, and this seems like a good 'un.

Scum
Luck (by a lot)

Shadow Dancer: zoraster, Ythill

lol, sure thing.

I also lol'd, and the follow up was also good.

oh someone else finally sees the pikachu for the scum he be VOTE: AlamasterGM

Is dat sum wagonhopping?

This is a good post by Luck, and gives Simenon more scumpoints.

Zoraster's lastest posts look terrible. An AGM flip would say a lot about him.

Would zoraster-scum dare to waffle on the bus?

Are you saying that Zoraster is bussing AGM or Simenon?

The AGM wagon died down after his big post. He didn't really respond to the argument I bought particularly well of crypto's, but his point on LL was good.

@AGM: For the most part, your logic seems sound. I think your stances are a bit convenient and of course you know I'm rolling my eyes at the fact that it took L-1 pressure to make you analyze the game like this.

Hmmm, I don't know if I'd characterise AGM's positions as "convenient". Which ones are you thinking of?

FTR, Shadow Dancer is scummiest on the AGM wagon. Joining the wagon at L-1 with this:

Alma: Seems to be pretty much active lurking, popping in here and there, dropping some rather innocuous ramarks and disappearing again. I really want to hear more from him, at least some opinion about every player or something like that to start with.

...along with saying other players needed pressure. After realising (ho ho) that it was an L-1 vote, there's no attempt to gauge whether his suspicions were worth the L-1 vote. Then there's this:

Woow... Looks like I missed quite a bit... And I see an Alma post. An its quite a long one :\ On first read I see quite some things that need commenting. But I'm too lazy to write a WOT now. Maybe tomorrow.

Unvote

. for now.

This post is scum city. Voting to pressure and get a read, then unvoting before you even have read the content is terribad. Was it just the length of the post that made you unvote? I have long posts, and you think I'm scum for some reason.

I really think the vig should claim and shoot first thing in the morning, and then the RS should claim. At that point, we force the scum to choose between tracker hunting (which allows a bloc core to live and lets the tracker make it bigger if they miss) or killing off the PRs (which means that the tracker will either increase the size of that bloc or get a guilty by the time they are done). Either way, town advantage.

This is the plan. There will be no more discussion.

I don't believe AGM is scum. His content after he came back seem to be fairly town.

Well originally you were all like:

Waiting to hear from AGM. Convince me of your towniness, AGM. Or don't. You're not in my top 3 to lynch right now, but I'm perfectly happy to put your head down where the blade's coming.

Then there are some claim shenanigans and you're now saying he's town. zor's play here smells a lot like opportunism.

I like the people voting Concission. I think most are townies. I get that Concission has at best been a lurker, and at worst had some scumminess. That's fine. I myself have not found anything particularly townie-ish about Concission.

Concission seems like a "compromise" lynch. It's a lynch everyone can get behind because I don't think anyone can actually defend Concission. That's why I would vote for him, at least...because it's "okay."

I spelt this tactic out quite clearly earlier in the thread, and LL walked right into it. LL gets scumpoints.

wrt Simenon, first there was

Unvote Vote Almaster

As I said before, he's flown under the radar. crypto's points are strong

Then,

I haven't gotten through AGM's post yet, when I do I'll see if I want to unvote.

Then,

Unvote Vote Concission

For my previous reasons and because she hasn't posted in a while and this seems like a fruitful wagon.

Didn't find AGM's reads impressive. His list is a collection of all the leading suspects in the town (except concission, who wasn't a leading suspect then) and all of the recognized townies. Also, he's prone to weird exaggeration; not all of his candidates can be that scummy because there aren't enough scum.

Taking your vote off a wagon you liked

and continue to like

to put it on a lurker? Say what now?

TOWN
crypto

LEANING TOWN
AlmasterGM - Townread from before, some good points, wagon smells very scummy.
Fate
Ythill

NULL
GLaDOS
LuckayLuck - have trouble reading this slot. Need to ISO ASAP.
VP Baltar - His responses to the points presented against him so far has been OK. Still wary.

LEANING SCUM
Concission
zoraster
RedCoyote

SCUM
Jarti
Shadow Dancer
Simenon

Unvote, Vote: Simenon

Not interested in voting Concission at this time.

Hokay. Need to take some more pills and lie down.

[Percy]

Timeline of Concission wagon, as I see it:

470 - crypto votes Concission for not producing content. This can be a legitimate tell, but needs more work to make into a case, imo.
474 - VP joins the wagon, says he's down with it. His reasons are pretty clear, but I don't find them super-persuasive. Still, a wagon is a good idea on Concission at this stage, imo.
479 - zoraster is "willing to entertain discussion" about a Concission lynch. He had attacked, then pulled back earlier in the day.
480 - GLaDOS votes Concission. Wagon vote.
481 - "We are lynching Concission today barring something extraordinary. Saddle up, bichez." - crypto.
482 - Fate jumps on. Another wagon vote.
486 - zoraster votes Concission. I do not see what has changed between his "let's talk about it" to a lynch. Opportunism.
491 - Simenon jumps on the wagon. The worst vote by far, see previous post.
493 - Shadow Dancer is "inclined to join the wagon" if there isn't more content. Scummy hedging.
500 - RC jumps on. Evidence of previous scumhunting in ISO, so more understandable.

I find this epic wagon to be even more poorly motivated than the one on AGM. It all happened within 30 votes. I can understand some votes/attitudes, but from the trio of {zoraster, Shadow Dancer, Simenon} I cannot. The Fate vote is .

I smell a lot of scum around this wagon. Simenon is the wagon of choice, imo.

Could someone summarize the Concission case for me?