Open 279 - Rusty Guillotine Mafia - Game Over!


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Post Post #975 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 11:13 am

Post by Fate »

RedCoyote wrote:
RC 944 wrote:I'm really disappointed at the disinterest in either a VPB or Fate wagon
There's a lot of ways to go here, but with you and VPB, I really want to see a flip from one of you, I think. AGM might be acceptable as well.
Ah, THANKS for pointing it out. HOW COULD I MISS THIS "Im sad that no one wants a VP/Fate mislynch... I guess I could bus AGM as well."
This is getting old fast. You called me out once for some so-called buddying and have been riding that wave ever since. It would be nice if, like Glados, you were willing to engage me every once and a while. I have no problem with someone voting me as long as they're willing to stay relevant and up-to-date. Your vote has been lazy and predictable. I mean, you don't even mention anything I've said today. When was the last time you quoted me or asked me something?
IT WOULD BE NICE IF YOU WOULD ACT LIKE GLADOS. GLADOS IS SOOOOOOO SEXY AND SOOOOOOO CONFIRMED.


I also like how everyone ignored my question. We've most likely got a scum between three people in VPB, AGM, and SD. Which one is it? If I had to vote right this second I'd probably choose VPB, but it would be nice to know if a VPB lynch is feasible or if I'm just wishing on the stars. AGM and SD are both so-so enough that I'd settle for them, I guess. A number of people are readily ignoring the flips though (notably Fate, VPB, and SD). VPB went so far as to imply the flips meant nothing to him and he wants to continue on the same path he's been on since the second page of the game.
[/quote]

YTHILL HAS BEEN OBVTOWN SINCE BEFORE HE DIED, HIS FLIP MEANT NOTHING. SIMENON'S FLIP DIDNT REALLY MEAN MUCH SINCE ITS TOOAERLY FOR VC-ANALAYSIS, AND I DON'T DO "RE-READS." THATS MAH EXCUSE ANYWAY, AND I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH VP"S SIMILAR STANCE
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Post Post #976 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 2:58 pm

Post by crypto »

Jarti's town till further notice. Zzz.
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Post Post #977 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 4:43 pm

Post by LuckayLuck »

I'm a little embarrassed to have been needed to be prodded. The truth is, I'm a little deflated since GLaDOS is a townie.
Both deflated and lost.

There's merit - lots of merit in a Jarti lynch, though. I had individual reasons for a Jarti scum, and Vigilante Ventriloquist has solid reasons as well.


Crypto, I would be interested in hearing your arguments on why Jarti is town.
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Post Post #978 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 4:59 pm

Post by GLaDOS »

... Processing ...

RedCoyote still needs to die. Two additional reasons for murdering him:

1.)
He is trying to get us to focus on the players who
did not
just mislynch Simenon; and
2.)
He just claimed I keep my read on him current and allow him to engage in back-and-forth. Basically called me a model player. Yet his attitude towards me was completely different on Day One ("it's just frustrating... it's pure confirmation bias"), before I was confirmed Town.

NOTE
: I will be V/LA from March 4 - 7. I will try to post.
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Post Post #979 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 9:25 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

Well, you still do (have a confirmation bias), so why would I waste time arguing with you? The prod speaks for itself. You've done little this day outside of your shot. So you're just floating along rather than actually leading the town like you should be. That said, SD isn't much better. Of course if the roles were reversed it would be a completely different story.

Of course we need to focus outside of the Sim wagon. VPB is the only one who thinks the Sim wagon wasn't a good wagon, I think everyone else agrees it was an acceptable lynch (even if not their priority pick). Lynching from a pool of 3 is better than lynching from a pool of 8, unless you're going to sit here and argue that all scum were on the Sim wagon.
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Post Post #980 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 10:10 pm

Post by GLaDOS »

... Processing ...

Wow.

1.)
So now I'm lazy because I have obligations outside of mafiascum that keep me from "leading the town like
should be"? Trust me when I say I post when I can, and when I have something to say. And even if I were not busy, I happen to be mildly interested in seeing how the game flows between the unconfirmed players without me interjecting. I am not a fan of "blindly follow the Cop," and so I similarly am not a fan of "blindly follow the confirmed innocent." If I am going to "lead the Town," I would rather do so in an
informed
manner, which I cannot do because I have not yet had the opportunity to reread this monstrosity of a game.

By the way, have you (or has
anybody
) reread the game since learning Ythill's, Simenon's, and my alignments? If not, why not? Don't you think you might catch things on Day One you didn't catch before (because at that time you arguably would not have known that Ythill, Simenon, and Antitown/I were Town)? Really, everybody should be trying to reread the game at their first opportunity to see if they can tease out posts that are more clearly scummy in hindsight.

2.)
RedCoyote, Post 979 wrote:Of course we need to focus outside of the Sim wagon. VPB is the only one who thinks the Sim wagon wasn't a good wagon, I think everyone else agrees it was an acceptable lynch (even if not their priority pick). Lynching from a pool of 3 is better than lynching from a pool of 8, unless you're going to sit here and argue that all scum were on the Sim wagon.
First, I said Simenon was Town. Which you made a point of rolling your eyes at and ridiculing more than a few times on Day One. How soon we forget.

Second, the Vote Count at the end of Day One was:
Simenon Lynch wrote:8 Simenon (RedCoyote, Concission, Ythill, LuckayLuck, Vigilante Ventriloquist, Jarti, Fate, zoraster)
2 Concission (crypto, Simenon)
2 RedCoyote (GLaDOS, Shadow Dancer)
1 LuckayLuck (AlmasterGM)
I do not think it is in any way guaranteed that one of the scum was off the Simenon lynch. I remember recently playing in a 4-man scumgroup where the entire team piled on the same player Day One (though we ended up having to bus a partner). Even if there
is
scum off the Simenon wagon, I see absolutely zero reason to draw attention away from the players who
we know were voting a for a Townsperson
in order to look at people
who very well might have been voting scum
.

At the very least, you are certainly conceding that there was
at least
one scum
on
the wagon. Probably at least two. And possibly all three. In any case, saying it is "easier to lynch from a pool of 3" over a "pool of 8" is at best highly misleading:

->
a.)
The "pool" of eligible candidates on the Simenon lynch is 7, since Ythill has died. Second, since you were on the wagon, you can remove yourself for the purposes of your own scumhunting, leaving a pool of 6. If there are two scum on the wagon, this means the chances of
you
being able to find scum on or off the wagon is equal: a 1 in 3 chance for those off the wagon (33.3%) and a 2 in 6 chance for those players on the wagon (33.3%).

->
b.)
Limiting the scope of suspects is not really helpful to Town, especially if this limitation could easily put the Town in an impossible situation. What if all three unconfirmed players off the Simenon wagon are Town? After we lynch the first, the "chances increase" (according to you) that the other two players are scum. So we lynch Townie #2. When they turn up roses, we lynch the third, because they
must
be scum! ... And then we lose. Your theory has a pretty obvious fatal flaw (i.e.,
you are wrong
) that you seem to dismiss out of hand. And without good reason.
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Post Post #981 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 10:19 pm

Post by GLaDOS »

... Processing ...

And I just realized that my vote count (and hitogoroshi's, which I based mine off of) is completely missing VP Baltar, who should have been listed as voting Concission. So really, there were four players off the wagon. Which means even if there was a player off the wagon, the chances of us finding the scum are less than the chances of finding scum on the wagon. (1 in 4 = 25%) v (2 in 7 = 28.6%). In any case, I think it silly to act as though scum vote in accordance with mathematical probability.
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Post Post #982 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 10:50 pm

Post by Jarti »

@Luck: your reads from d1 were awful; in the post where you voted simenon you went on trying to string it into the glados/jarti combo, saying it'd have more fuel for your attacks on me when he flipped scum. which he didn't. in addition glados flipped town. essentially you're just tunneling on bad reads that you mostly established through connections and are not going anywhere now since you're just trying to PoE after being wrong about your initial reads; essentially you're refusing to re-evaluate and going from extreme activity to inactivity

Based on RC's ramblings, I'd say there likely is one scum off the wagon if RC is scum. I don't see him trying to divert attention to a 3-town group off of a wagon if he was scum. Just a note for the future.

honestly Fate's #975 helped me get my head straight; specifically the last part. I tried to look through the VCs and based on some of the patterns, VPB & Fate made sense. I don't mind VPB to my null section, but I'm going to keep Fate on the scum. In post #295, I noticed that Fate's #290 had skipped over Simenon, when everyone else who had a vote didn't get skipped. This caused the next vote count to have no crossed out Fate name by Simenon. I took it as a possible indirect communication with other mafia that that was who he wanted to lynch for the day. Later on, we have VPB demanding a claim from Simenon but backing off easily. In addition, Fate was shaky about voting his top suspect, but he finally did and it was Simenon, which turned out to be the deciding factor for Ythill's push. Looking back on it, I shouldn't have connected the two in my head for that reason. But looking again, Fate really had said little about Simenon, had been putting a lot of pressure on RC & had been on Conscisson earlier as well. His newfound dislike of Simenon did get the lynch through.

"Simenon: Vigilante Ventriloquist, RedCoyote, Concission, Fate (L-4)"

Interestingly enough both RC & Concission are also on this wagon that got the approval of Ythill's method. I wouldn't be surprised if one of RC or Conci ended up being a buddy of Fate who had caught his clue. Possibly VV, but I'm not really seeing it.

I'll go ahead and VOTE: fate.

VV: I am no one's alt. Also your case on me [which for whatever reason Luck said had good points, proof he's not even trying anymore and just tunneling] was lame. #959; no problems with holding hammer to actually get the claim. VPB putting him at L-1 and asking for a claim would have left him wiggle room to go "I'm not claiming until someone says they're willing to hammer" which would have just stalled the game. I took the initiative to get things going. #773, the wagon deflated instantly, there was no advantage to going on when he wasn't one of my major suspects if everyone else was going to leave it. #774 I don't even think you read right. You say that I'm calling one of them scum, when I was pointing out that VPB had knocked the situation down to TvS but wasn't going to follow through with it. Plus I WAS voting one of the people in that post. At least read my posts instead of skimming them when it's the short ones you're going after. The 'lolz I'm skipping this' section you put conveniently ignores that I followed through on the Sim lynch, because we needed it and were going nowhere. [Also ignores me clarifying my FOS on VBP at the time]. #854 Yes, I was on Sim's wagon, but marketing it as him being one of my reads I fully expected to flip scum is mischaracterization. It wasn't a bad lynch from my perspective, but it was hardly my preference. [Funny thing is it apparently was Fate's preference but he quickly hopped off of it after the claim as well.] I'm fine taking responsibility for being part of the lynch, but most not all people on the wagon came into D2 with a mentality that he would be flipping scum. Anticipating a possible mislynch with a vote on VPB vote before the flip isn't as ridiculous as you wish to insist.
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Post Post #983 (ISO) » Thu Mar 03, 2011 11:23 pm

Post by RedCoyote »

Look, you're the one who's popping in to say, effectively, "Meh, keeping the vote I've had since yesterday, nothing has changed". I find it hard to believe that I'm the only person worth commenting on since Sim's flip, but we'll set that aside. I'm not calling you lazy, but I will call you out for taking me out of context. If you want to step up and say that SD has had as much to say about me as you have, then those are your words, not mine. I strongly beg to differ, and can point to numerous examples of you addressing me and SD, well,
not
.

Without a scumflip, rereading isn't as beneficial as you make it seem. I mean, rereading is always important, everyone should always do it, yadda yadda yadda, but don't go off on some elitist rant because no one is keeping up with your standards of play. I've reread enough (thank you very much) to know where I want to go, and I would hope everyone else is keeping their offense fresh and honest (unlike Fate, VPB, and possibly SD).
Glados 980 wrote:First, I said Simenon was Town.
There's a difference between this and saying he's a bad lynch, especially on D1. You don't know Sim's alignment until you know it. I recall you being very back and forth on Sim, but I'll go back and see if you were, as you claim, as insistent as VPB was.
Glados 980 wrote:I do not think it is in any way guaranteed that one of the scum was off the Simenon lynch.
You either think it or you don't. There are no guarantees. There's no reason to continue to ham up your attacks against me. I don't guarantee anyone will flip anything.
Glados 980 wrote:The "pool" of eligible candidates on the Simenon lynch is 7, since Ythill has died. Second, since you were on the wagon, you can remove yourself for the purposes of your own scumhunting, leaving a pool of 6.
You're right about Ythill. I was posting too fast. However I made it a point not to include myself when I'm talking about your perspective.
Glados 980 wrote:Limiting the scope of suspects is not really helpful to Town, especially if this limitation could easily put the Town in an impossible situation. What if all three unconfirmed players off the Simenon wagon are Town?
What if they're all scum together? What if there are no scum? What if the moon was blue? I'm going with probability here. Probability is more reliable than whatever scumhunting I can do. I know you don't like thinking about odds and chances (in general I don't like relying on it much either, but I come from an inherently more statistical approach to Mafia given that I cut my teeth on EpicMafia), but there's a real advantage to using it as one tool among many in an attempt to locate scum.
Glados 981 wrote:And I just realized that my vote count (and hitogoroshi's, which I based mine off of) is completely missing VP Baltar, who should have been listed as voting Concission.
Oh, interesting. I must've had crypto mixed up with VPB.

In that case, it is trivial to lynch off of Sim at this point. Let's stay on the Sim wagon then.
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Post Post #984 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 1:34 am

Post by VP Baltar »

@Fate - do you agree with Jarti's analysis that Simenon was one of your top suspects yesterday, yet you were hesitant to lynch him?
YOUR AD HERE

Too busy with work to play mafia right now but I shall return some day!
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Post Post #985 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 2:08 am

Post by Fate »

His "secret in thread buddy communication" is a complete load of bullshit. Maybe I skippped simenon because he WAS A NONPRECENSE IN THREAD.

But no, Simenon wasn't one of my top suspects, RC was. I was hesistant to follow Ythill antitown side-show, but at last relented even though it meant the complete end of the RC wagon momentum.

Simenons wagon was picking up, and I pride myself a bandwagonner, and he was at best a null read, so I hopped on.

Not sure where this "hesistation" was, besides that I said I liked both the RC and Simenon wagons. Id have. To reread to tell you exactly what I was thinkin, though
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Post Post #986 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:05 am

Post by Fate »

K I'm awake and not on a phone.

Time to ISO myself >_>b
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Post Post #987 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:10 am

Post by Fate »

Fate wrote:
Unvote:
Vote: Simon


I'm not listening to somefucking clown with a terrible avatar. Stop this goddamn trend
hitogoroshi wrote:***

crypto has been prodded. GLaDOS only has a couple of hours left, though whether I'll be online before morning to send out her prod remains to be seen.

Also, as a note, players are free to request votecounts at any time.


Vote Count #26

Simenon:
Vigilante Ventriloquist, RedCoyote,
LuckayLuck
, Concission, Fate (L-4)
Concission:
cypto, Simenon, VP Baltar,
zoraster

LuckayLuck:
Ythill, AlmasterGM, Jarti
RedCoyote:
GLaDOS,
Jarti
,
AlmasterGM
, Shadow Dancer
Jarti:
LuckayLuck
Shadow Dancer:
zoraster
Fate:
Fate


Not voting:
No one.

On guillotine:
No one.

Deadline is on Feburary 27th, 2011, at 11:00 PM central time.

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to end the day immediately.

With no new votes until deadline, Simenon will be placed on guillotine.


***
Yeah its just like I remembered it. Look at the RC wagon, it was clearly deflating. Only Glados and SD were on it at the time of my vote to Simenon.

I went with the flow onto a Simenon mislynch. He was a pretty big null for me so I figured he'd make a good D1 lynch. After he claimed VT, I wanted my RC lynch:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p2814517

Read from there down. I really felt pangs of town in Simenon at that point.

Two more pages of bullshit went on. I said fuck it:
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 2#p2816172

And pushed through the lynch on the claimed VT as is proper procedure, and to avoiding another PAGES PAGES OF DE-MOTIVATING WALLS.

TLDR: Did I hesitate to vote Simenon? Yeah, because I was more sure of my RC-scum read at that point, but there was little momentum for it. I eventually conceded and bandwagonned like a pro.


ANYWAY: Can we stop dicking around a get an AGM lynch up ins?
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Post Post #988 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:12 am

Post by Fate »

And to those who wanted to know why Jarti is town, look at his latest tinfoil:

FATE HAS SECRET COMMUNICATION WITH SCUM IN THREAD ON WHO HE WANTED TO LYNCHHHHHH

That kinda seeing things that aren't there bullshit only comes from town.

NOW THAT THATS BEEN ESTABLISHED: Who else do I need to prove as town for PoE so we can get on with an AGM/RC/LL LYNCHIN
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Post Post #989 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:14 am

Post by Fate »

RedCoyote wrote: Without a scumflip, rereading isn't as beneficial as you make it seem. I mean, rereading is always important, everyone should always do it, yadda yadda yadda, but don't go off on some elitist rant because no one is keeping up with your standards of play. I've reread enough (thank you very much) to know where I want to go, and I would hope everyone else is keeping their offense fresh and honest (unlike Fate, VPB, and possibly SD).
OH YOU SAYING MY READS DONT ADAPT? LUCKAY WAS TOTES TOWNMASON BUDDY YESTERDAY, TODAY IVE SEEN THE HIPPIE-LIGHT AND HES SCUM AS SCUM CAN BE. THAT REMINDS ME.... I FORGOT THAT BREADCRUMBED CONTENT.
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Post Post #990 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:15 am

Post by Fate »

Fate wrote:[Obligatory breadcrumb for a content post I plan on making the future hehe]
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 4#p2841704

Go to that post and back a page or two. REQUIRED READING FOR WHAT IMMA BOUT TO SAY:
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Post Post #991 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:23 am

Post by Fate »

Fate wrote:Oh yeah didn't LuckyLUCKY say "LOLCOMBOTEAM"

Lucky if you don't proxy me your vote for awhile I'll be forced to bus you. HARD.

In fact...
Fate wrote:
Unvote:
Vote: LuckyLUCKY


HEHAHHAHHA DIE MASON BUDDY DIE DIED DIE DIE DIE DIE

I posted this at start of day. I
completely reversed my read on LL
, LL's NEXT POST after this?:

LuckayLuck wrote:I'm swayed by VPBaltar's both emotional as well as logical argument in Post 868 against Concission. Prior to me getting pigeonholed into seeing through Jarti & GLaDOS as that scum pair, I had Concission on the unknown list. With GLaDOS and Simenon clear, my list of available suspects has dropped a lot. Therefore, I should be fine with a Concission lynch.

At the same time, I'm a bit swayed by Fate's "concission mislynch" - I re-read Concission. There are pangs of townhood there.


Who do I want to lynch? It's a very narrow path, given how many players I've attributed villager qualities to. It actually comes down to simply {Jarti, Zoraster, Shadow Dancer} as my top 3. Oh LuckayLuck, that maverick.



VP Baltar, your statement of "open your eyes" town could become very ironic should Concission actually be a townie. I want to just trust you and go for her, but those villager qualities of her prevent me from doing so - I'll list them out later and you can attempt to shoot them down later. Briefly, they come from very strong opinions - I feel the opinions are incorrect, but they seem to come from a "limited knowledge" (townie-side) of the game and they are presented with a townie-like attitude.

Concission, I think that VP Baltar is a townie, and is actually the one person I trust the most in this game.
NOT A SINGLE GODDAMN MENTION OF MY VOTE ON HIM OR MY READ ON HIM. Sounds like he is content with me to go off on a RC tangent, and didn'
t want to ruffle feathers.

He even says: "At the same time, I'm a bit swayed by Fate's "concission mislynch" - I re-read Concission. " so he can't pretend to have NOT BEEN READING my posts at that time. He agrees with my read on Concission, but says nothing of my new scumread on HIM??? He even says VP is the person he trusts most, when it used to be
ME
when did this change? Why, and why didn't he state it? Taking advantage of RC's vote IS HE?

His suspect lsit: "Zoraster, SD, Jarti" is basically just a lynch of clowns that suck at towns and can't defend themselves. THEY'RE ALL MISLYNCH FODDER. He has no REAL scumreads, and the lack of AGM on this list is BULLSHIT.

I then breadcrumbed content, because I was going to give him ONEMORE POST to maybe comment or react to me calling him scum, but he FAILS TO DO SO.

He lurks while I blow up at RC, offers NO COMMENT of my blowing up, and instead quips:
LuckayLuck wrote:
zoraster wrote:all right. just finished getting lynched, ready to focus on this game, sorry about that. Reading now, will be posting within the next few hours.
I propose we ironically lynch zoraster today.
in all honesty it isn't a bad idea
Yeah. THen he lurks until prodded and posts this gem:
LuckayLuck wrote:I'm a little embarrassed to have been needed to be prodded. The truth is, I'm a little deflated since GLaDOS is a townie.
Both deflated and lost.

There's merit - lots of merit in a Jarti lynch, though. I had individual reasons for a Jarti scum, and Vigilante Ventriloquist has solid reasons as well.


Crypto, I would be interested in hearing your arguments on why Jarti is town.
BULLSHIT EXCUSE. GET YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME. THIS WOE AS ME META MY BULLSHIT CONNECTIONS DIDNT WORK OUT ISNT FOOLING ME.

FINE. ILL VOTE WITH AGMSCUM ONTO LL. IF THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO GET MOMENTUM SO BE IT:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: LUCK
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Post Post #992 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:25 am

Post by Fate »

hmmm no one's voting Luck.

Unvote:
Vote: AGM


BUT DON"T FORGET THESE POSTS ABOUT WHY LL SCUM IS LUCK
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Post Post #993 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 8:26 am

Post by Fate »

JARTI WAGON HOP OVER TO AGM. IVE JUST SHOWN YOU WHY HE IS TOWNTINFOILMCAVATAR CHANGER.

THIS DAY NEEDS ENDING. THIS PLAYERLIST NEEDS WEEDING. THIS TOWN NEEDS DIRECTION.

LET FATE GUIDE YOU INTO ETERNITY.
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Post Post #994 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:02 am

Post by crypto »

Unvote. Vote: AlmasterGM.
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Post Post #995 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:12 am

Post by AlmasterGM »

Woooooo hoooo. Why am I scum? Nobody knows!

Where's LuckayLucK? Nobody knows!

What has zoraster contributed to the game? Nobody knows!

Who is the scumteam? LuckayLuck, zoraster, and VP Baltar!

Will vote for any of these three, lynching needs to happen this game needs moar flipz.
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Post Post #996 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:13 am

Post by AlmasterGM »

also ITT crypto and Fate are pretending to be cool and not succeeding.
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Post Post #997 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:18 am

Post by Shadow Dancer »

Meh... Sorry for not posting in a while. I haven't felt well as of late (cold or something, headache [literally this time...])... I hope I'll be better tomorrow...
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Post Post #998 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 9:29 am

Post by crypto »

AlmasterGM wrote:also ITT crypto and Fate are pretending to be cool and not succeeding.
Haha, I know exactly what you mean. I honestly didn't mean it that way. I just didn't have anything more to say. You were already on my lynch list.

However.

AGM is still dropping some weird-ass town tells.

Unvote. Vote: zoraster.
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Post Post #999 (ISO) » Fri Mar 04, 2011 2:10 pm

Post by Jarti »

You say you voted sime due to the wagon, but that was the time Ythill had gotten everyone to vote their TOP SUSPECT and you were quite aware of what was going on Fate.

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