Mini 1145 — Plain Mafia (over)

[ICEninja]

Oh yeah Valern, I believe you need to eat your hat. Twice.

[Valern]

Indeed.



I don't see anything in Pine's iso crumbing a scummy track result on Peabody.

Trendall Lynch voters

Valern

,

Erratus Apathos

, ICEninja,

RangeroftheNorth

,

crazypianist1116

, Quilford,

DarthYoshi

Peabody wagon, at the height of its power Day 1

DarthYoshi

,

crazypianist1116

,

RangeroftheNorth

,

Pine

,

Erratus Apathos

People who weren't on either wagon

Trendall

, Peabody (note: no vote out end of D1), DeathRowKitty (note: was voting Peabody at the end of D1), inhimshallibe (note: no vote out end of D1)

I'm mostly just putting the above here for future reference, and as a springboard to the below...

Probable scum brackets based on vote analysis, in Valern's not-so-humble opinion

Probably at least one scum in the people who abandoned the Peabody wagon to vote Trendall, regardless of Peabody's alignment (bussing, or hopping town-wagons, either way):

{CrazyPianist, RotN, Erratus Apathos}

If Peabody flips scum, at least one scum on only the Trendall wagon:

{

Valern

, ICEninja, Quilford}

At least one scum afraid to have a lynch vote out at the end of day one (

STRONG

emphasis on those not voting at all):

{

Trendall

,

Pine

, DeathRowKitty,

Peabody, inhimshallibe

}

assuming a three-man scumteam (balance, lol) the team that makes the most sense to me based on Vote Analysis alone is Crazy/Quilford and one of {Peabody, inhim}. I'll do my reading focusing on how coherent a team this makes but off the top of my head I recall that Romanus (who Crazy replaced) defended Lucresia (who Quilford replaced) for, IIRC, pretty much no reason when that wagon was going on early D1. Needs moar research.

I also totally forgot about DRK flopping to a useless Peabody vote at the end of the day. Scratch what I said in my earlier post; I was only thinking of the me/Trendall flopping.

[RangeroftheNorth]

@Valern: Your VCA could be accurate, but even if all of your assumptions are correct, that leaves quite a few possibilities for scum teams besides the one you mentioned, and I'm not sure I buy all of your assumptions. I think having two scum in any of those grouping is quite possible, although I would agree that its very unlikely all three are in one place.

Currently, my top two suspects are Peabody and inHim. Hearing from them would be very helpful. Personally, I think the third scum (taking Valern's assumptions about balance) would be one of {Quilford/Crazy}. Most of my suspicions on Quilford are due to Lucresia's actions, but I also found his protestations of Trendall's innocence a little strange, especially when he suddenly retracted them and voted Trendall. I can't pin down any one thing on Crazy. I'll reread a bit later and see what I come up with.

[ICEninja]

Wow, Valern in his image looks exactly how I imagined him!

I like your VCA. I also like your suspicion of those without votes, in particular Peabody and inHim.

I've been grumpy today, I'll post more content when I'm in a better mood.

[Erratus Apathos]

Post 90 is evidence enough that Pine didn't track Peabody to the kill. And I still like Peabody's reaction to the sudden wagon on him yesterday, he is very much town.

Vote: inHimshallibe

Vote: inHimshallibe

Vote: inHimshallibe

Vote: inHimshallibe

Vote: inHimshallibe

Vote: inHimshallibe

Vote: inHimshallibe

Vote: inHimshallibe

This is who we need to be lynching today people. One slot, three players, eighteen posts, and not a single meaningful word in any of them.

[RangeroftheNorth]

Or that he wasn't certain his result meant Peabody was scum, or that he didn't want to come on too strong and reveal that he was the tracker to the mafia. I'll admit that there's no sure sign that Pine ever targeted Peabody, but his attacks were very strong for the amount of evidence he had, and there's no sure sign he didn't target him either. My suspicions against Peabody aren't based on the assumption that Pine investigated him, but it does make me just a little more confident.

[Erratus Apathos]

If either of those were the case then Pine wouldn't have attacked Peabody so hard in the first place. Quit being stupid and/or looking for reasons not to bus inHim.

[Peabody]

Gee, it looks like I'm at L-2 already. If there were more accusations, I'd like to hear them because I posted my defense of my Trendall unvote on Day 1.

I reread the thread during the night hours and wrote down a few notes. I did not want to place a vote day 1 for the sake of bandwagoning again without reason.

Anyway, my analysis:

@ICEninja

, in my analysis of day 1, I noticed that you withheld your vote from Lucresia though you were suspicious, but you did vote both Erratus (based on lying to your questions) and on lynchking (due to his single 'scummy' vote post). Lucresia had a good case against her, and I'm wondering why, though you voiced suspicion, you voted for two other people who have less evidence against them rather than never placing a vote on Lucresia?

I also noticed that you attacked Romanus for voting you based on false premises. After Romanus agreed that the bandwagon was on false premise, he unvoted. However, you asked a question:

You haven't given any reason for no longer finding me scum

, especially considering how you still feel like I did what you accused me of doing. It looks like a hasty retreat from a bandwagon that is falling apart.

This question looks forced. If Romanus unvoted because he found his vote was on a bad premise, why would he still find you as scum? I believe Romanus' reason for unvoting was good.

In my reread of the case against the Lucresia slot, I realized that there was some merit behind it which makes me wonder why ICEninja never jumped on that wagon. I cannot get a good read on Quilford yet.

DeathRowKitty

has made my scumlist for the day. I'm noticing VERY bad voting patterns from him. When he pushed his case on Lucresia, he gave reasons and these reasons were good. What happened after the Lucresia wagon fell apart? He voted Valern without giving a reason here, hops to the Trendall wagon, without much explanation, here, he votes Valern with only sheeping reasons here. Oh, by the way, DRK's sheep on ICEninja, took place in the same post that he said he would rethink ICEninja.

I was going to continue pushing a Pine lynch today... but he's dead.

Also, the case Erratus posted about AMP has me convinced that the AMP slot is mafia. I have found that most scum, in an effort to look town, like to talk either about technical things (such as roles, night actions, possible setup options) or theory in order to make it appear that they are scumhunting/protown when in reality, it is an easy mask to utilize when flying under the radar. My scumread on InHimShallIBe's slot is mostly based off of AMP's play. As far as what I feel about InHimShallIBe's play, I feel that I cannot get much of a read off of him yet, considering most of his posts were catch-up posts.

So, my Scumspects for now:
AMP/InHimshallibe
DeathRowKitty

Probable town for now:
EA
Valern

I will be in favor of either an inhim wagon or a DRK wagon.

vote inHimshallibe

[Peabody]

@mod:

Please fix the tags on my above post.

[Quilford]

VOTE: inHimshallibe

I'm still fine with this lynch.

My theory regarding Pine:
Tried to set a wagon in motion on Peabody (due to incriminating tracker reports) by using EA's 'nervous scum' accusation. After a while he realised it was not going to get him anywhere and might end up putting him under suspicion for tunnelling. He started tunnelling again once Peabody made more scummy posts, hoping that he would be able to get Peabody lynched. Perhaps he replaced out because at that stage it was fairly obvious that Trendall would make today's lynch?

[Valern]

Woah. I didn't realize how few votes we have to lynch today. Also, Peabody's last post very quickly reminded me why I had a town read on him most of D1 in the first place. Good finds.

unvote

While I support the wagon, I suggest no one else vote inhim for the moment. DRK's promised "more later", Crazy hasn't even posted yet, and we still have most of a week to go.

[ICEninja]

Lucresia had a good case against her, and I'm wondering why, though you voiced suspicion, you voted for two other people who have less evidence against them rather than never placing a vote on Lucresia?

Lucresia was at L-2 on page 4. Me voting her, at the time you're suggesting, would have meant an L-1 vote. She had already claimed, even. Placing an L-1 vote at that point in time was definitely not the right move. Putting pressure on some people is a great scum hunting tactic, but Lucresia seemed fairly squirrely, and the potential for a bad hammer at that point was very real.

This question looks forced. If Romanus unvoted because he found his vote was on a bad premise, why would he still find you as scum? I believe Romanus' reason for unvoting was good.

Read Romanus's unvote post here, and you'll see why I made that post, and asked that question. He stated that he still thought I did what he voted me for, and that he unvoted me because I was aggressive. Aggression is a complete null tell.

That being said, I actually really like your analysis of DRK. He hasn't made a single vote with independent thinking yet.

I think Pine's tracking of Peabody theory makes sense, but I'm not willing to lynch based on just that.

[inHimshallibe]

Gone all weekend, only did some modding yesterday. I see a string of votes on me, that's unfortunate. Need to do some work, will address concerns in a bit.

[crazypianist1116]

Sorry I haven't been here yet. I forgot how urgent the deadline was for this game and would have posted last night if I remembered. I'll make a post after class is done today.

[Fenhl]

Vote Count 2.1

Peabody	1	RangeroftheNorth
inHimshallibe	3	Erratus Apathos	Peabody	Quilford

Spoiler: more info

Not voting: crazypianist1116, ICEninja, DeathRowKitty, inHimshallibe, Valern
With 9 living players, a majority consists of 5 votes.
The current deadline is Apr 18 16:18.

[Erratus Apathos]

Gone all weekend, only did some modding yesterday. I see a string of votes on me, that's unfortunate. Need to do some work, will address concerns in a bit.

Sorry I haven't been here yet. I forgot how urgent the deadline was for this game and would have posted last night if I remembered. I'll make a post after class is done today.

What is this, a prod dodging contest?

[RangeroftheNorth]

As I've already said, I think inHim is probably scum. I think the case against Peabody is better, but I'm perfectly happy with an inHim lynch. I'm going to wait until he provides his promised post before I switch my vote over.

[Peabody]

VOTE: inHimshallibe

I'm still fine with this lynch.

My theory regarding Pine:
Tried to set a wagon in motion on Peabody (due to incriminating tracker reports) by using EA's 'nervous scum' accusation. After a while he realised it was not going to get him anywhere and might end up putting him under suspicion for tunnelling. He started tunnelling again once Peabody made more scummy posts, hoping that he would be able to get Peabody lynched. Perhaps he replaced out because at that stage it was fairly obvious that Trendall would make today's lynch?

Ummm... What? Your theory is that Pine has found incriminating tracking evidence against me, yet you vote for someone else? Not only that but you vote for someone I voted for? This doesn't make sense to me...

[Peabody]

Lucresia had a good case against her, and I'm wondering why, though you voiced suspicion, you voted for two other people who have less evidence against them rather than never placing a vote on Lucresia?

Lucresia was at L-2 on page 4. Me voting her, at the time you're suggesting, would have meant an L-1 vote. She had already claimed, even. Placing an L-1 vote at that point in time was definitely not the right move. Putting pressure on some people is a great scum hunting tactic, but Lucresia seemed fairly squirrely, and the potential for a bad hammer at that point was very real.

On page 3, the Lucresia wagon was up to L-3, and you said

I'm considering joining the Lucretia wagon. I'll need to see how she responds to it.

Were you still afraid that by joining the wagon at L-3 a lynch would occur? If not, why didn't you join the wagon in favor of keeping your vote on Erratus?

This question looks forced. If Romanus unvoted because he found his vote was on a bad premise, why would he still find you as scum? I believe Romanus' reason for unvoting was good.

Read Romanus's unvote post here, and you'll see why I made that post, and asked that question. He stated that he still thought I did what he voted me for, and that he unvoted me because I was aggressive. Aggression is a complete null tell.

I guess I did not read his post carefully enough. Thanks for making this more clear.

[crazypianist1116]

Rule 21 along with this quote:

Apparently not posting during night earns you a prod if you don't PM something to the mod. That is mildly annoying.

earn ICEninja major town points. If you go back and read rule 21, it says that posting in a game related qt dodges a prod. I highly doubt that ICEninja being as active as he is would have lurked through at least the first half of night with a quick topic waiting to be used.

I'm not actually suspicious of DRK's flip-flopping close to the end, but then, I know both slots zhe flip-flopped on were/are town.

You know, I was going to write this off as an OBVIOUS scumslip as DRK flipflopped on Trendall and Peabody at the end of the day. Then I looked back and saw DRK voted you as well. I'm going to guess you meant the second possibility but you still earned some scum points here.

I also don't like your VCA either. It's basically dividing everyone into three groups of three and saying there's probably one scum in each. It doesn't really help our chances for today that much since the likelihood of lynching scum in that case (assuming you're correct) is still 1/3. Additionally it completely ignores the other wagons of Day 1.

Valern's unvote concerns me as well. While the reason given is that there are fewer votes required to lynch, Peabody was at L-2 at the time. 5 votes isn't as many as we needed yesterday, but a quick lynch would have pointed out obvious scum and as such I doubt we would have gone to lynch without a decent amount of discussion.

I'm not completely convinced with this inhimshallibe case. Peabody and EA's read seem primarily based on this post. While yes, I agree scum love to argue theory, we have to take that in the context of AMP's slot. We'll note that his last post with content was made not even 3 days into the game. At such a point, it's more likely to discuss theory as the game is generally just coming out of RVS, and there have been questions raised where theory is concerned. After this, he replaces, Mersaniel makes a single post, and then we get inhim. His posts actually have a decent amount of scumhunting, but they lack continuity which was a result of him catching up. His enitre slot before him lurked a ton, which I'm willing to say is more of a null-tell as a result of this (read to the lynch to find out why). While I have a slight suspicion of him, I don't think the day 1 actions of his slot warrant a lynch and thus he won't be getting my vote.

Quilford, could you explain this:

inb4 "Trendall was a Vanilla Townie."

If you thought that was going to be the mod's result, then why didn't you push harder against the Trendall wagon?

I want to reread and see if anything pops out to me as a result of the flips with a specific focus around Peabody, Valern, and DRK.

[Quilford]

Quilford, could you explain this:

inb4 "Trendall was a Vanilla Townie."

If you thought that was going to be the mod's result, then why didn't you push harder against the Trendall wagon?

1. We were too close to deadline.
2. Nobody was going to run with a different lynch, as evidenced by EA's "Somebody hammer!"
3. That was posted before I saw a good reason for a Trendall lynch (which I noted when I voted).

[Quilford]

I'll respond to Peabody when I'm back on a suitable device.

[ICEninja]

Were you still afraid that by joining the wagon at L-3 a lynch would occur? If not, why didn't you join the wagon in favor of keeping your vote on Erratus?

If you look back at the point in time that I suggested I might be joining the Lucresia wagon, the only thing I found suspicious for was noted in the exact same post. It wasn't really any stronger of a case than the one against Erratus. A vote for Lucresia, based on what I found scummy at that point, would pretty much have been just as bad a vote as my Erratus vote, but it would have been L-2. I needed to see more scum posting from her to join a wagon that late in order for it to be justified, and I found lynchking's single post, made shortly after, to be hugely opportunistic. Considering how he replaced out and probably never read beyond page 2 or 3, that is obviously mitigated.

[Quilford]

VOTE: inHimshallibe

I'm still fine with this lynch.

My theory regarding Pine:
Tried to set a wagon in motion on Peabody (due to incriminating tracker reports) by using EA's 'nervous scum' accusation. After a while he realised it was not going to get him anywhere and might end up putting him under suspicion for tunnelling. He started tunnelling again once Peabody made more scummy posts, hoping that he would be able to get Peabody lynched. Perhaps he replaced out because at that stage it was fairly obvious that Trendall would make today's lynch?

Ummm... What? Your theory is that Pine has found incriminating tracking evidence against me, yet you vote for someone else? Not only that but you vote for someone I voted for? This doesn't make sense to me...

I'm fine with either lynch. Both of you seem equally scummy.

[Erratus Apathos]

I'm not completely convinced with this inhimshallibe case. Peabody and EA's read seem primarily based on this post. While yes, I agree scum love to argue theory, we have to take that in the context of AMP's slot. We'll note that his last post with content was made not even 3 days into the game. At such a point, it's more likely to discuss theory as the game is generally just coming out of RVS, and there have been questions raised where theory is concerned.

Uh what? AMP was the only one discussing theory and not scumhunting. If it's so likely to discuss only theory at that stage, why was he the only one doing it?

After this, he replaces, Mersaniel makes a single post, and then we get inhim. His posts actually have a decent amount of scumhunting, but they lack continuity which was a result of him catching up.

That's not scumhunting, that's worthless crap. I'm not talking about the catching-up, which I didn't even bother reading because for whatever reason, replacement catch-up posts

always

have a lower signal-to-noise ratio than Glenn Beck. I'm talking about the result inHim ends up at. He called half the living players scum. That's not an exaggeration, I mean literally half. Conveniently, pretty much everyone who was a plausible lynch candidate, save for Valern, showed up on the death list. Then he never filtered the list down to a usable number. Or attacked anyone on the list. Or did anything with it at all for that matter. He just made a preposterous scumlist and sat on his ass.

His enitre slot before him lurked a ton, which I'm willing to say is more of a null-tell as a result of this (read to the lynch to find out why).

Okay, I read all of D3 AND RBT's iso in that game, and I have one question: what the fuck does it have to do with anything at all in this game? RBT scumhunted right out the gate (albeit in that stupid cryptic bullshit way he always does) so his situation in that game has precisely dick in common with AMP's in this one.