Open 295 -- Island Paradise Mafia -- Game Over


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Post Post #900 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:20 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

For god's sake. We're 4 RL days into D5, and we have what? 12 posts? And the play throughout the game hasn't been great, either. But this is 2-1 LyLo. Someone will WIN THE WHOLE GAME this phase.

I am the only one who has questioned anyone, or asked for explanation. I know you're V/LAing, but neither of you has scumhunted, or even tried to improve your reads. Seriously, at the most critical moments of the game, it really, really sucks.

[/reallypissedoff]
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Post Post #901 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 9:29 am

Post by Nobody Special »

While I do have a clause for shortening the deadline in case of very low activity, I am extremely hesitant to do so in this particular case. I will, however, be very diligent about prods.
....what?



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Post Post #902 (ISO) » Fri Jun 10, 2011 4:33 pm

Post by havingfitz »

Sorry guys...in addition to my current v/LA I have been without internet access most of today. I'll definitely be providing content posts this weekend.
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Post Post #903 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 3:44 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

*twiddles thumbs*
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Post Post #904 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 5:21 am

Post by havingfitz »

izakthegoomba wrote:
*twiddles thumbs*

Back from vacation. Back to reliable internet access.

What's the rush izak? Don't we have another ~2 weeks to decide who we want to lynch? With all the time you apparently have you haven't exactly spent the last few days unveiling a masterful analysis of MS and I. Why don't you quit complaining about our participation levels (which we have explained) and provide some helpful content of your own?

izakthegoomba wrote:
Something I noticed from those is that fitz tends to post
way
less when he's scum. LURKERSCUM BASTARD!

But considering he has well over 100 posts in this game... well, maybe not. It could be a ploy to make him look townier, or the change could be entirely subconscious. I'm not ruling anything out.

It's been awhile since I have been scum so I don't recall what my posting levels were in those games. RL does influence posting ability though and who's to say what I had going on 8 months or 15 months ago (or whenever my scum games took place). You've basically just accused me of lurking as scum (not sure I agree) and pointing out my high post count in this game. So WTH are you trying to get at?

izakthegoomba wrote:
@fitz
What was the point of that fight with farside? She was
easily
my biggest town read by the time I got there. How could you really think she was scummy? Even more so now she's flipped, it makes you look really bad to me.

If you think farside is a good player you should believe she has the ability to appear town when she is not town. As I do not know who is scum and who is town, certain things (which I am certain I pointed out during my exchange with farside) made her suspicious IMO. What your opinion of her is is not of concern to me. And the fact that she has flipped town matters how? I had backed off her prior to her being NK'd because I was of the opinion she was the likely Doc protect the night we did not have a NK. Ie. once certain game events pointed to the likihood of her being town, I no longer suspected her.


izakthegoomba wrote:
@MS
How about some content now? Seriously, at least fitz said who he's "leaning towards". You have posted once this day phase, giving us nothing useful.
I'm tempted to suggest you're lurking,
and hoping one of us will slap an idiotic vote on the other for some reason. Who. Do. You. Think. Is. Scum?

(I bolded the sentence above) Really? You're tempted? I have the 2nd most posts in the game and I'm lurking but you're only "tempted" to think that of MS. :roll:

As I said last night...I'll get my opinions on each of you posted this weekend.
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Post Post #905 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:46 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

havingfitz wrote:It's been awhile since I have been scum so I don't recall what my posting levels were in those games. RL does influence posting ability though and who's to say what I had going on 8 months or 15 months ago (or whenever my scum games took place). You've basically just accused me of lurking as scum (not sure I agree) and pointing out my high post count in this game. So WTH are you trying to get at?


I guess I didn't make myself clear. I was saying that, based on your track record, I high post count
could
make you look townier, but it's to much of a WIFOM to make a big thing of. But I think any change is most likely unintentional.


havingfitz wrote:If you think farside is a good player you should believe she has the ability to appear town when she is not town. As I do not know who is scum and who is town, certain things (which I am certain I pointed out during my exchange with farside) made her suspicious IMO. What your opinion of her is is not of concern to me. And the fact that she has flipped town matters how? I had backed off her prior to her being NK'd because I was of the opinion she was the likely Doc protect the night we did not have a NK. Ie. once certain game events pointed to the likihood of her being town, I no longer suspected her.


I don't know enough about farside to know if she's a good player, but she was my biggest town read. I know you pointed out your reasoning, but frankly, the whole exchange could easily be a really stupid town-on-town fight, or a scum (you) trying to discredit a townie.


havingfitz wrote:Really? You're tempted? I have the 2nd most posts in the game and I'm lurking but you're only "tempted" to think that of MS. :roll:


As said above, I don't think you're lurking. I said you could have been lurkerscum in the past, but not this game. The "tempted" bit referred primarily to the part about him being scum hoping for a quicklynch.

---

As I said, I'm uncertain which of you is scum. You both look scummy, and if it wasn't LyLo I'd happily lynch either of you. My gut tells me that fitz is scum, because of the way he has played in general, but I don't like MS too much either. I feel that nothing either of you can say will really change my opinions now. Fitz, you're right, we have plenty of time, so I might do another total re-read.
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Post Post #906 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:30 am

Post by havingfitz »

Still reading through the game.

Observation for the other townie still alive...it appears I am the top candidate for both of you. If I was scum...who would I have been most likely to NK? }|{opa was deadset on MS being today's lynch (as I had been as well) whereas izak had listed me just behind Sundy among his suspicions and MS and I had gone back and forth a bit. I don't recall MS really giving a list of suspects yesterday but I think it's safe to say among the post-lynch four remaining, I was probably his top suspect. }|{opa on the otherhand had expressed no recent suspicions towards me. Killing }|{opa would have been the worst thing for me to do as scum. Why would I have taken the risk of getting rid of the player that suspected me the least and have to go up against the two who appeared to be most inclined to vote me? So that I could make this observation? If I was going to try and set up N4 NK speculation I would much rather do it with my top suspecter (izak) being the dead person (ie He was killed to set me up) than to get rid of ther person who suspected me the least (Ie. there's no way I would have killed him). For that matter...why would I have nk'd farside ass well? I had changed my read on her to town and she had Sundy and Yabba (MS) as her top two scum reads.

Questions to both of you since you are both claiming to be town.

Why do you think you weren't killed last night?
Who had the most to gain from }|{opa and farside's NKs?
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Post Post #907 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:34 am

Post by havingfitz »

EBWOP:

"For that matter...why would I have nk'd farside ass well?"

should read,

For that matter...why would I have nk'd farside as well?

Damned double esses.
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Post Post #908 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 11:44 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

Ok...

1. Any answer just seems to lead to WIFOM here. For example:

I think I was left alive because I was not coming close to suspecting the scum. But maybe the scum knew I would think this, and I actually
was
suspecting the scum, and so they let me live anyway...

You could go on and on. As usually with NK analysis.

2. Anyone playing scum had a lot to gain from those kills. They were my two biggest town reads by the time they were NK'd, and I'm guessing others thought the same too. If I was scum, I may well have made those kills.
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Post Post #909 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 6:42 pm

Post by havingfitz »

ISO on yabba/Q/MS slot:


yabba is posting decent content, which explains why I never put a vote on him. That plus the fact I had stronger suspicions towards others. I hate D1s.
ISO 29 yabba says "Sundy's one of those you just say "ah, yeah, seems Town" and just never bat an eye at. I went through the ISO and couldn't find as great an extent of uselessness from Sundy as I've found from Toasty."

All his D1 votes/suspicions are on townies (now confirmed ones + me). He spends all of D2 on TT.

Questions wagon on cj (started by me) and hates quick votes by DRK and TT on the cj wagon (as most of the players seem to).

ISO 35 he says, "@Sundy: Why are you still sitting on your ass? What's prohibiting you from making a vote?" which is followed 7 posts later by a Sundy vote on Zerofang (who yabba had been criticizing recently.

ISO 41...he says Sundy and TT could be buddys. Can't see it as too much of a negative to link (now confirmed) scum with a (now confirmed) townie.

ISO 50 = yabba requests replacement due to busy RL. Requests replacement in one other game (which he turns out to be town in).

I don't put any suspicions on yabba for replacing out. All his suspicions are on townies and the few times he mentions Sundy are not in any way incrimating.

Q ISO
....nothing said in 2 posts. Not sure why he replaced in. He stayed active in games where he flipped town/werewolf/town mason/TBD.

Null read on q's participation.

MS ISO
....18 posts.
ISO 2 - D3, No suspicions of note towards me and farside. Has this to say about Sundy, "-Sundry is lurky(harhar), but when he comes back into the game, posts pretty well- I'm null leaning scum right now on him."

ISO 3 - D4, He suspects }|{opa and TT but provides no real reasoning. Votes }|{opa.

Has a few posts in error. Makes several posts explaining his absences and defending against }|{opa's and my reads on him as scum.

Also of note...he has posted several times in other threads since stating he has yet to really read this game and that he needs to do a re-read.

Conclusion...I did not like MS's attempt to paint my ignoring of his bussing question (which I deemed as rhetorical and useless) as scummy. On that note...of course, bussing is always an option. His predecessors did not jump out at me as scummy. Of the three players in that slot...MS has given me most cause to suspect the slot.


ISO on Sundy...

ISO 4 - He says "I think DRK's analysis of Toast is wrong in #71" and places an FOS on me.

ISO 7,8,9 - He spends questioning me about my vote on }|{opa despite having made several observations on DRK. (Would he understand a vote on DRK better?)

ISO 18 - Says, "@Yabba: Why praytell is dodging questions not a scum tell?" I have no read on this.

ISO 19 - Calls Jakalope's vote on Yabba weird. Votes ZeroFang.

ISO 21 - Questions Zerofang about a perceived town read on me. (Not sure scum would raise questions about a town read from a townie on their scum partner...translation=I don't think they would which would coincide with the fact I am not)

ISO 22 - Gives his view on several players but does not mention DRK or yabba :( Edit...he does question me on the fact he thought my arguements on DRK were more persuasive then my arguments on }|{opa...who I had voted earlier. Not sure he would try to persuade anyone (or me) to resconsider why I had voted }|{opa (a townie) instead of DRK. I do not think scum would push someone from a vote on town to their partner. Ie..I think this supports a case for DRK not being Sundy's partner.

ISO 34 - Quotes yabba and points out the fact that yabba is suspicious of TT and his 64 posts which seems odd given that yabba has only 42 posts. Doesn't follow this up with any hint of suspicion towards yabba. Proceeds to vote DRK.

ISO 35 - Calls DRK out on ignoring the pressure on him (or her?).

ISO 38 - He makes a valiant attempt to present a case on me and places a vote on me.

ISO 39 - Questions }|{opa regarding his [}|{opa's] vote on yabba. Adds a few quotes by me to ~support his vote on me.

ISO 40-43 -Spent in an exchange withg me/supporting his case on me.

ISO 45 - Self hammers.

In my defense...Sundy dedicated a large portion of D3 trying to build a wagon on me. This is on the heels of him having mentioned suspicions towards me throughout a large portion of the game. He also appears to be up for a DRK lynch as evidenced by him trying to persuade me (and perhaps others?) that my case on }|{opa was not as powerful as my suspicions towards DRK. This and the fact he had his vote on DRK for much of D2.

He barely ever mentions Yabba. Conclusion: I think Sundy's ISO supports the yabba/Q/MS slot as scum.


ISO on DRK/izak slot
...
Starts D1 pushing a wagon on Sundy.
ISO 9 - DRK calls out ani for "defending" Sundy. (Would scum call out someone for defending their [DRK's] scumbuddy? I think not.

ISO 12 - Makes a case on }|{opa and unvotes Sundy while voting }|{opa.

ISO 21 - Unvotes }|{opa and votes star(town).

ISO 27 - Places an admitted gut vote down on yabba.

ISO 28 - States s/he hass determined that Sundy and bv310 are scum and votes for Sundy. (Bussing? Perhaps it is MS but I'm not convinced). Vote remains on Sundy the rest of the day.

No real posts worth mentioning the rest of the game. No references to Sundy other than to comment on a gender question.


Conclusion...I really didn't care for DRK's game. Lot's of lurking and questionable votes. With the hindsight of most of the players' flips however I am inclined to think DRK is not paired with Sundy.

ISO on izak
...

ISO 3 - farside and I
could
be town on town.

ISO 5 - States strong feeling that scum could be yabba, TT or }|{opa.

ISO 6 - TT looking really scummy and DRK hass not done him [izak] any favors. This rings a bit scummy to me as distancing from one's predecessor.

ISO 9 - More DRK distancing.

ISO 11 - Requests decent case link for Sundy.

ISO 13 - Says,

"Sundy looks bad, the lurking and stuff, and he really hasn't contributed to the game in any helpful manner. I'd be up for lynching him if it comes to it."
"I really don't like havingfitz. Not in the same way as I think Sundy is scum, but more that many of the things he's said look like they could be from a scum mindset. It seems to me that he's saying a lot of things that I might say, if I were scum. It might mean nothing, but I've got a bad feeling about him."
"Sundy is the biggest scum here."
"VOTE: Sundy"

This puts Sundy at L-1 when he could have easily put me at L-2 (which would have had me in a tie with the Sundy wagon). Why put your partner on the brink of a lynch if you don't have to? If Sundy had avoided the D3 lynch yesterday would have been LYLO. The fact izak did not have a chance to confer with Sundy during the night (due to replacing in the same day Sundy died) makes me think this strong a bus from a ~newer player is unlikely.

ISO 20 - D4 begins and izak laments farside's NK. I hate when people do that.

ISO 27 - States belief that TT is Sundy's partner.

Post 29 - Tells MS that he [izak] does not have a town read on me.

Several posts with lots of drama and angst about hammering TT. Then hammers TT.

D5 - suspects both MS and I but appears to suspect me more.

Conclusion...I don't care for izak's posting either. Lamenting NK's, regretting that he has to hammer toast. No real suspicions provided towards toast that I can see. I really do not like izak's posts. Hammering just to keep the game going, etc. I really do not like this comment, "We're either about to win or go to LyLo, so see you all in the plausible tomorrow."

2izak - What made you so sure you would make it to tomorrow?

tl:dr:
I think both the izak and MS player slots deserve strong consideration as scum. I view comments made by both player slots to be fairly close in terms of suspicion. I think the balance is tipped (not as significantly as I would like) in one direction though when I look at Sundy's ISO, voting patterns, and NK speculation. I'll expand on the votes and NK's in a later post. Right now I maintain my suspicion that MS is the final scum. I'll post voting and NK thoughts in the next day or two and will wait until the two of you have had a chance to do decent assessments before I vote. If I was voting now though it would be on MS.
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Post Post #910 (ISO) » Sat Jun 11, 2011 9:03 pm

Post by izakthegoomba »

Kudos for the longest post I've ever seen, fitz.


havingfitz wrote:What made you so sure you would make it to tomorrow?


I wasn't sure. However, I thought I was a pretty unlikely NK target. Look at the fact that the two of you are considering me as scum. Would you be so questioning of Jora? No? So Jora was the better NK, no matter which of you is scum.
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Post Post #911 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 7:25 am

Post by havingfitz »

MS is three hours away from a prod
and has made several posts onsite since his last one in here.

If you turn out to be town MS you'll be high up on my list of people I hope I'm not town with in the future. WTF?
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Post Post #912 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 7:48 am

Post by havingfitz »

izakthegoomba wrote:
Kudos for the longest post I've ever seen, fitz.


havingfitz wrote:What made you so sure you would make it to tomorrow?

I wasn't sure. However, I thought I was a pretty unlikely NK target. Look at the fact that the two of you are considering me as scum. Would you be so questioning of Jora? No? So Jora was the better NK, no matter which of you is scum.

If you were female I might have put that first comment in my sig block.

Did you have any comments on my ISOs? Defense of yourself? Agreement with any of the observations towards MS or Sundy?

Are you doing anything substantial in terms of scum hunting at the moment?

If }|{opa had made the same comment you had I would have questioned him on it as well.

How can you say }|{opa would have been the better NK if I was scum? :? You're saying I would get rid of someone who shared my suspicions of MS and had not made any sign recently (iirc) of suspecting me, and leave you (who had clearly stated your suspicions of me) and MS (who I think at least had exhibited some level of suspicion towards me) to go into LYLO with?

Since you had such a town read on }|{opa and farside...what is your take on their final reads on people?
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Post Post #913 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:04 am

Post by Midnight's Sorrow »

Duuuuuddde...

WTF indeed, man!

You know, one would
never
guess how much energy goes into critical reading, am I right?

I mean,
really
now.

:roll:

Btw, I've seen your wall of doom, fitz, and let me just say, I'm drunk as fuck from all that wine.
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Post Post #914 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 8:46 am

Post by Nobody Special »

Votecount 5.02
(unchanged)


No votes cast

Not voting: izakthegoomba, havingfitz, Midnight's Sorrow

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

Deadline: June 27.

V/LA: Midnight's Sorrow, June 10-16, emphasis on the LA
....what?



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Post Post #915 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 9:57 am

Post by havingfitz »

Thanks for making an appearance. Too bad you didn't have anything to add to the conversation. It's like you're afraid to provide any content in this game. Or can't be bothered to.

Feel free to actually debate any of my comments or even better, provide some of your own.
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Post Post #916 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:20 am

Post by Nobody Special »

I'm ...not actually supposed to add to the conversation. :cool:
....what?



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Post Post #917 (ISO) » Sun Jun 12, 2011 10:55 am

Post by havingfitz »

Nobody Special wrote:
I'm ...not actually supposed to add to the conversation. :cool:

Like ^ ?

I was responding to MS for anyone who may actually be confused on my response.


OK...actions speak louder than words. While I would say the things DRK/izak have said are more suspect that what yabba/Q/MS have said, when I look at the interactions between Sundy and DRK/izak I don't get teh sense that they are partners (even considering the possibility of bussing). Sundy made efforts to push suspicions towards DRK when there was no need to and they both at one point or another were voting each other.

I would also point out to the other townie how on D3 Sundy put a vote on me after he had received two votes himself but ignored the chance to move over to a yabba wagon. Why start a wagon on your partner when you can bring another wagon to the same level as you are at (L-2). On the other hand, there is very limited interaction between Sundy and yabba/Q/MS. They hardly mention each other and never come close to putting a vote on one another.

Prior to both of their NK's both farside and }|{opa were firmly in the yabba/MS is scum camp. You can call it WIFOM all you want but all indications point to MS being Sundy's partner.

As suspicious as I find the DRK/izak slot I can not get past the actions and events surrounding the yabba/MS slot. MS has continued to lie low and not put any effort into this game. The closest thing he has done that could be confused with scumhunting would be his poor accusation at me for ignoring his pointless bussing question. He has basically ignored this game.

If izak does wind up being the last scum then I have to tip my hat to him, begrudgingly, for coming into the game and jumping on your partner without any prior night chat and getting rid of yabba/MS's biggest detractors the last two evenings (ie setting him up for potential NK speculation).

I can't envision changing my opinion on MS so I'll leave it up to izak to decide the game...one way or the other.

VOTE: Midnight's Sorrow
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Post Post #918 (ISO) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:05 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

Kind of inevitable, I guess.


havingfitz wrote:Did you have any comments on my ISOs? Defense of yourself? Agreement with any of the observations towards MS or Sundy?


In general, I agree with your comments. I haven't played too well, but I truly believe MS is scummier than me, and scummier than you in a way.


havingfitz wrote:Are you doing anything substantial in terms of scum hunting at the moment?


No. In this situation, I don't want to give either of you the chance to redeem yourself of too much scumminess - I would much rather get my reads from what happened earlier.


havingfitz wrote:If }|{opa had made the same comment you had I would have questioned him on it as well.


I don't doubt you would have.


havingfitz wrote:How can you say }|{opa would have been the better NK if I was scum? You're saying I would get rid of someone who shared my suspicions of MS and had not made any sign recently (iirc) of suspecting me, and leave you (who had clearly stated your suspicions of me) and MS (who I think at least had exhibited some level of suspicion towards me) to go into LYLO with?


Actually, you make a good point. Taking a brief look back, I guess you wouldn't have killed Jora... but this leads to WIFOM.


havingfitz wrote:Since you had such a town read on }|{opa and farside...what is your take on their final reads on people?


I can't entirely remember what their final reads were, I'll get back to you on this shortly.

BTW, what does "tl:dr:" mean?
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Post Post #919 (ISO) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 12:21 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

I think farside's reads were mostly good, not so much for Jora - but I said I had town reads on them, not that I agreed with what they said.

The more I look into this, the more I think MS is the last scum. I don't wan't to hammer just yet and risk losing us (whoever "us" is) the game, though. I think I'll take one last look over the game.
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Post Post #920 (ISO) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 1:50 am

Post by havingfitz »

Phew......LYLO sucks. It's always nerve-wracking to put the first vote down.

At least you are confirmed town now FMPOV and MS is confirmed scum. Don't try to read too much into things izak...everything points to MS. Vote MS so town can close this thing out.

Also...tl:dr means "too long, didn't read." It's a summary at the end of a long post that tells the unenthused reader what the jist of the long post was.
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Post Post #921 (ISO) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 2:43 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

Confirmed to
you
. And I'm still not
absolutely
certain.
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Post Post #922 (ISO) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 3:15 am

Post by havingfitz »

izakthegoomba wrote:
Confirmed to
you
. And I'm still not
absolutely
certain.

That's what I said (FMPOV=from my point of view).

What questions do you still have? If there is something you find suspect towards me ask away. If there is something that makes you think MS could be town...by all means share it because I didn't see anything (and he is now confirmed scum with your not hammering him yet).
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Post Post #923 (ISO) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 10:15 am

Post by havingfitz »

:neutral:

Hey izak
:right:
MS=
:twisted:
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Post Post #924 (ISO) » Mon Jun 13, 2011 11:54 am

Post by izakthegoomba »

I hate this bit. Everyone else can now be almost certain of the setup, and I have to figure it out. I've partially changed my mind about LyLo, actually.

MS, defend yourself NOW. I want some good reasons that I shouldn't just hammer you right now. And you can also tell me exactly why fitz is scum, and exactly what makes him scummier than you.
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