Open 318: By Nomination Only (Game Over)

[Hoopla]

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[Hoopla]

Claim VT.

[Hoopla]

Claim VT.

Anyone buying this claim? I'm not.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Amrun

[Hoopla]

Optimal play is typically doing the opposite of what GreyICE says.

[Hoopla]

Maybe. Either you are a cheap joker who kicks the game alive at the expence of a newby

I think you're overestimating the depth of Zito's initial motivation to claim VT. I don't think it was intended to be a newbie trap - you can (maybe) logically extrapolate that the end result might only catch newbies, but I don't think Zito would have consciously known that before posting. My take was that it was pretty obviously a joke, with no intention to catch anyone.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE: VOTE: Nobody Special

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, do you agree with Rory's assessment of me?

That you're a newbie? Not really.

[Hoopla]

P.S. My NS vote is serious.

I think they all are.

[Hoopla]

This post drips with scumdroplets because A) it uses big words to make it seem as though she's saying something and B) it's mind-reading.

It's just NOT a pro-town thing to do, interpreting others' reactions for your own benefit. It'd better if she had

asked

Zito about his supposed "gambit."

You must have creamed yourself when you saw Rory's opening post.

[Hoopla]

Maybe you should give it a read. You'll love it.

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch is a beacon of towniness (as usual). Don't make me rainbow vote you.

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch is a beacon of towniness

why?

I am the resident Fenchurch expert. I've played with her a lot more than anyone else here, so you're going to get a meta-explanation.

She's been quiet, admittedly, but this is typical of Fenchurch at the beginning of most games - especially games with more than 9-10 people. Fenchurch values PoE very much, and likes to have reads on and be able to keep track of every player in the game. This is why she usually sticks to small games. I coerced her into joining this one because I like playing with her, so I find it understandable that she hasn't fully got a handle on this game yet.

As town, Fenchurch tends to poke around, asking questions; she is speculative by nature as town. As scum she is more jittery, less composed and tends to be more assertive. She feels as though she needs to prove herself, which leads to overcompensation and can produce a more definitive and declarative outlook in her posts.

Her first three posts of the game are exactly the sort of posts I expect from her as town - her third post in particular seems very sincere to me. I think her lack of influence in the game so far is in keeping with town meta. She is still curious and confused and trying to work out the puzzle. I'd be more suspicious of her if she was actively pushing cases with more purpose.

[Hoopla]

NS lurks and flounders as scum... It is just his way. He hates being scum.

His town game lacks substance too. I think you could interchange "scum" for "town" and still have that sentence be believable.

[Hoopla]

so who are your top 3 suspects then Hoopy?

Nobody Special, Amrun, Copper and VitaminR are the group of players I'd be most willing to lynch right now.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE: VOTE: VitaminR

[Hoopla]

so who are your top 3 suspects then Hoopy?

Nobody Special, Amrun, Copper and VitaminR are the group of players I'd be most willing to lynch right now.

why copper?

and wouldn't a Nobody special and copper suspicion be mutually exclusive in a way or am I overthinking things?

Well, less so now - I like his last post.

I think Nobody Special/Amrun suspicion is also mutually exclusive too. I gave you reads on who is most likely going to flip scum individually. Obviously a Nobody Special scumflip would drop Copper/Amrun down the list. It's kind of why I'm bailing from that wagon right now. We have a weird triangle of votes on three of my current suspects - which feels like they're probably not scum together, and could even be all town. I think I want to scrap that and go after VitaminR who doesn't have such connections, as that seems like the more rational play.

[Hoopla]

Fair enough. I don't really get what you are getting at here, but I suppose it's not a bad idea to be cautious about town reads in this set-up.

Why? Scum have no true nightkill - that's key mechanic that often scares towns out of divulging town reads. If we can develop a solid core of town looking players, we go a long way towards winning. Scum can't just get rid of those players. They have to

be

one. This makes speculation perfectly safe, and probably encouragable - it's an extra angle for us to work with no associated risk.

I think Copper meant that he doesn't want to divulge his methodology, not the outcome (the town reads). I assume because he believes it keeps the tell(s) he's using more relevant if town players don't know what it is they need to manipulate.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: please explain why this was followed by your next post. Essentially, why is it okay for you, but not okay for her?

Sigh...

My VT claim was a play on how silly claiming is in this game, because you know, VT is the only possible claim a player can make. When Amrun claimed it, I was parodying other games which feature proper role-claims, where an evaluation of the claim is necessary. "Does anyone buy this?" is a common catch-cry by the disbeliever of a claim. The humour lies in the characterisation of this behaviour and applying it to a situation where it doesn't make sense.

I hate explaining humour, because it just makes it sound stupid and unfunny, but I guess most humour is subject to that once picked apart. Whatever. Maybe I'm just not funny.

[Hoopla]

I am too subtle for my own good.

[Hoopla]

Nobody Special, you can move your vote now if you want. Help us wagon VitaminR.

[Hoopla]

How do you feel about the wagon forming on you?

[Hoopla]

I find it strange that several people are theorising on how/why me defending Fenchurch would be beneficial to me as scum, whilst completing neglecting the other side of the coin. It's awfully specious reasoning in the sense that you can't detect the likelihood of scum motivation without considering how likely it is to be a town action. They're dependent on each other.

zMuffinMan seems to have convinced himself of this. My question to him is; why does my defense of Fenchurch make more sense as scum? You've outlined a very specific scenario where I could hypothetically gain from defending Fenchurch, but why is that answer more compelling than any of the possible answers you can find under the town column, ie; a strong advocate for declaring town reads (thus believing that defending a town read is a pro-town thing to do), interested in setting up a voting bloc for pro-town purposes, more interested in getting

my

scumreads lynched (thus minimising competition from someone who I think is town), and so on.

It's all well and good to identify how an action could be beneficial for scum, but whatever that action was, it needs to make more sense as a scum action than a town action, and it looks like you're paying little attention to the latter.

The other reason I personally think this is Hoopla-scum buddying Fenchurch-town is because of Hoopla's strategy for this game, which is outlined in #147 - to be specific, I think this is Hoopla-scum is trying to form a voting bloc

This is the mindset of a conspiracy theorist - he comes to a conclusion of whatever it is he wants to believe, and then twists and applies information to suit the belief. I fail to believe zMuffinMan truly believes that is a likelier scenario than any combination of the town reasons I provided.

~~

Nobody Special, Amrun, Copper and VitaminR are the group of players I'd be most willing to lynch right now.

Explain this. In as much detail as you could possibly go into.

I don't want you to squirm your way out of this. Twisted asked you why Copper is one of your top suspects, you don't get to answer with "well, he isn't after his last post".

I happen to know who controls the Copper account, and from what I know, their output of three posts up until that time was underwhelming, particularly since none of the posts screamed town - I hold the players of Copper in high regard. Their explanation of their goal to be as concise as possible makes a lot of sense to me. I can see them trying to make their posts as relevant and fluff-free as possible.

VitaminR was also a good wagon to kickstart - I was considering bailing from NS's wagon a little earlier in pursuit of that, but Copper beat me to it.

I have to go to work now, so I'll tell you all about the rest of those reads when I get back.

~~

While I'm away, I'm interested in your town reads, and your thoughts on divulging on them. Do you think it's pro-town to declare town reads in this setup?

If you can't give me that, give me your new scumreads since I debunked your Fen-suspicion (and hopefully mine).

[Hoopla]

The question posed (by Twisted, I think) was whether or not Fenchurch would be town if you're scum.

Erm, nope. He asked why I thought Fenchurch was town - and I explained.

Why? Gut. I think you're scum. That's it. The fenchurch=town explanation, and this last post by you are the first posts in which you've really done anything in this game. At least you're posting content now.

If your entire belief is gut-based, then I have no mode of defense even if I felt obliged to. If you can trace that gut back to anything in the future, feel free to post it so we can start a dialogue. For the mean time, I'll just respond in the only way I can: your gut is wrong.

For the record, I've always been posting content - it's been largely in the form of pushing wagons and analysing minor events, but it has been there, and has been more pronounced than some of our other players. I have voted more often than I usually do at the beginning of games, I've committed to stances and have provided (what I hope is) relevant theory points of discussion. If you've been expecting more from me, I'm sorry to disappoint. You'll forgive me for not breaking the game open two days into Day 1.

[Hoopla]

To continue the post I delayed earlier;

I'm a little suspicious of Amrun's opening to the game. My interpretation was her eagerness to jump on Zito's claim was mildly opportunistic - I find scum are often keener than townies to pursue and capitalise on situations where they can't be wrong. There is nothing better to scum than laying down a vote that can't be challenged. It prevents them from being called on it, or at worst, they have some kind of high ground if their vote is perfectly well justified. Amrun's engagement with Zito secured her a line of attack that puts her in a position where it would be difficult lose or come out worse for doing so.

It's obvious she didn't understand how much of a non-issue Zito claiming was - she clearly perceived it as damning from the way she continued her argument, which does bring it back to whether a town player or scum player is likelier to want to pursue it. I'm slightly skeptical about the strength of this tell, now that I have it in words, because I could also conceive a town-Amrun committing such an action. I maintain the psychology behind scum feeling more compelled to jump on it is valid and applicable here, though.

To comment on the rest of her play;

I find myself flipflopping on the rest of Amrun's game - she often appears to be doing the right things, but they seem to lack substance. For example, the amount of activity she's brought to the game is solid and typically a townlike quality, yet she hasn't said much to rock the boat. She asks questions, but they often seem to contain little beyond the cosmetic - this might be how Amrun-scum decides to mask her alignment; peppering the game with questions looks good, and is a tangible facet of play to mimic, but it could also be true this is merely the depth of her interrogation, and is unsure or unable to go deeper. I find for all the questions she asks, there still (at times) seems to be a lack of genuine curiosity.

~~

Nobody Special can be a frustrating character - he has a habit of appearing scummy by most peoples' interpretation of the game, and I get the distinct impression that he's often resigned to that fact. He lacks effort and consequently is difficult to read - you can't read someone who isn't playing to further their win-condition. I'm not saying NS isn't playing to win, but I think his investment in games tends to be lower than average. This stands out even more in a game of such calibre.

My willingness to lynch (or at least heavily wagon) NS is based on this fact. I don't think I'll be able to read him accurately in the game, because his alignment is masked by the seemingly shallower motivation his puts forth. I believe I can (and others can) read many of the other players with greater accuracy the deeper the game continues. Players who have a habit of being transparent should always be given chances to perform on Day 1 and Day 2. Nobody Special is not one of those players.

Admittedly, an NS lynch would be more of a utility lynch, than picking the player who is scummiest. You could argue NS is the scummiest, but like many others do already, I have to handicap him because his individual chances of flipping scum don't match up to an average players' chances of flipping scum if they'd committed the same acts. One of the key reasons why I pushed an NS wagon at the beginning of the game was to see other players react to him, and base my read on that, as opposed to basing my read on NS's actions towards others. Initially I was liking the way the wagon on NS formed, but I must admit now, I'm less sure if NS would flip scum - I'm starting to even believe he might actually be town.

I am still piecing together the game. The variables are still too chaotic to break the game down via PoE, which is how I like to hunt and solve the puzzle. For example, I've flipflopped on Zito a couple of times already, and am having conflicting feelings about VitaminR. The way he has steadfastly stuck to how he claims to play the game appears sincere - if anything, coming under pressure for his conservatism and lack of vote could have caused him to conform to try and shake his wagon if he were scum. Given that is the main source of suspicion fueling his wagon, it's becoming less believable he is tentative scum scared of stepping on toes (he's stepping on them now), when the other option is he's just an unorthodox player.

[Hoopla]

Why Fenchurch? Rory is town.

[Hoopla]

Captain Spoon is town.

[Hoopla]

More pronounced than other players? Not at all. Could you point out who, specifically, you're referring to here? Apart from me, since I hadn't posted at all at the time.

I don't know what the cut-off point you're using is, because you say "apart from your Fenchurch and recent post" I've been contentless. That was about 6 pages into the game, so I'll use that as the benchmark to compare myself against others.


Aside from you, I think what I offered in my posts eclipsed Nobody Special's series of one-liners. I think I gave more than forest_air and I think I gave more than VitaminR. The game was less than two days, so I don't think there is any reason at all for that to be a relevant point. I have always produced content at a steady rate in all my games, and will continue to do so in the future.

I agree on the points on Amrun, but this isn't something I couldn't see Hoopla-scum writing. Your points on NS are just meh; it looks like making excuses for not being able to read a player. He looks town to me.

Effort and content aren't town tells.

You're using (lack of) content as a scumtell for me (or at least a selling point), so obviously tells can go the other way. Content and effort can absolutely be town tells. There is much more town motivation to go back and break down wagons/votes, interrogate players or attempt to unearth unique thoughts/perspective on the game. There are some players who are talented liars and can fabricate at an alarmingly efficient rate, but for many, they won't be as efficient, because it's a lot harder to make something up knowing it's false, than to discover and talk about new things you've learned and seen. For example, if I gave you an hour to write about your most exciting adventure, you should be able to do it easily once you decide on what event it was - the words would flow. If I instead told you to completely make up an adventure on the spot and write about that, do you really think you could pass that off as believably as a real story? Do you think everybody could or even some? The relevance of content as a tell varies player by player - for some it's nearly irrelevant, but others, it's critical.

As an aside, I don't think I'm making excuses for not being able to read a player - I'm admitting to it. That's hardly a crime. I wish more players would suck it up and say when they're having trouble reading someone, rather than forcing a read and guessing for the sake of guessing. My trick for reading VI's, lurkers and other seemingly unreadable players is to pay less attention to what they say and who

they

target, and instead focus on how others interact with them. It's usually a more illuminating angle of connections.

My main willingness to lynch Nobody Special stemmed from a utility perspective: If I'm unlikely to be able to read a player, or will be able to read this player less in comparison to others, then it's a pretty weighty factor to consider for the D1 lynch. D1 lynches typically have low odds of hitting scum - usually less than random. I see no reason against utility/policy lynching Day 1 (or at least it being a deciding factor between two candidates) if it can be justified as a net gain longterm. Because the odds of lynching this player over that is typically negligible, it's probably more important to gain benefit elsewhere, ie; keeping best scumhunters alive, most transparent players, most active players - generally the most potentially beneficial players to town. For example, I wouldn't lynch Glork on D1 suspicion, because unless he's committed some absolutely damning scumslip (ie; never), the odds of him being scum probably don't top 30-35%. I'd rather lynch a 25%-er or whoever is closest to him, because if he's town, he's going to catch us scum at some point. I can't say the same for the next suspicious player - so I'm not going to take the extra 5% on D1.

That's overly elaborate explanation of utility lynching, but it's grounded in logic that makes a lot of sense to me and how I view the game. I know there are others who will solely lynch based on how scummy a player is.

I think you misunderstood my "willingness to lynch" list as a "who I think is scummiest" list.

[Hoopla]

Still, you seem to be flip-flopping on every suspicion you have. Who do you actually think is scum? Still Vitamin, even though you have "conflicting feelings" about him? Anyone else?

To be honest, I think the way you've been arguing for my lynch has started to become insincere. I think I've provided very good reasons for why I've acted in certain ways - I can't account for your "gut" feeling, but it looks like it's starting to trump everything else, and you're now just cherry-picking whatever you can to suit your read, and ignoring what challenges it. I'm not saying I expect you to view me as town, but I think you're working particularly hard to preserve your suspicion of me, rather than viewing the game objectively.

I have conflicting feelings about everyone (obviously), but I think the use of my VitaminR vote has expired.

Who I actually think is scum;

Who is individually scummiest (often when lists are organised like this, the top 2/3 never work together)? Who is the scumteam? Or who I'd most like to lynch? They all produce different answers. So, I'll let you pick which one you want me to answer before you accuse me of twisting the question.

~~

UNVOTE: , VOTE: Papa Zito

[Hoopla]

There is something off about zmuffin's play in this game. I can't put my finger on it - but I will, eventually.

Is it perhaps that I'm town and you're scum and you're looking for a reason to find me scummy, but you have nothing that won't backfire and make you look worse for it?

I don't know why you're criticising Amrun for having a gut-based read, when that is entirely what your vote on me is predicated on.

[Hoopla]

I'd love to hear why you're voting for Zito.

Lack of town tells so far. It's mostly just a feeling I want to explore and see if others share. Having just spent a game as scum with Zito, I was half-expecting him to bring it and lay it down this game.

How do you read him so far?

[Hoopla]

His opening to the game looked good - whether it was intentional or not, he was the one who led us out of the RVS, and seemed to be buzzing with intent. But it didn't last long.

It now just looks like he is meeting quotas, which is kind of how I saw his scum game in PYP. It's effective because he's an amicable kind of guy like SpyreX, and that personality can let you get away with a lot if you can back it up with a baseline of intelligence. These are the sort of guys you want to see effort and intent from, otherwise they will cruise by on their charm.

[Hoopla]

VitaminR prices are plummeting - SELL, SELL, SELL!

[Hoopla]

I have this really great stock option, though. You want to get in on the ground floor of the hot new ticket? Papa Zito.

Initial investment: one vote.

[Hoopla]

Trust me. Papa Zito is going to be the next Microsoft.

[Hoopla]

So what do you think of NS wanting to lynch Copper earlier?

I think little of it.

Cherry-picking? I assume you think I've overlooked some of the more 'pro-town' things you've been saying, or something? Care to highlight what I've overlooked and why you think I'm cherry-picking things to suit my read?

A couple of times you've posed questions/thoughts about certain aspects of my play which look like explanations of why you think I'm scummy. Whenever I try to address them, you recoil and say that isn't the reason for your suspicion. So, if your suspicion is still entirely gut-based, then, no you're not cherry-picking as you aren't attempting to make a case against me. If you are presenting opinions on things that make me scummy, then you ought to say those thoughts have merit, as opposed to not being a reason for your suspicion. Is your suspicion of me still just gut?

~~

There is something off about zmuffin's play in this game. I can't put my finger on it - but I will, eventually.

Is it perhaps that I'm town and you're scum and you're looking for a reason to find me scummy, but you have nothing that won't backfire and make you look worse for it?

I don't know why you're criticising Amrun for having a gut-based read, when that is entirely what your vote on me is predicated on.

That was a criticism of Amrun?

That absolutely looks like a criticism, or an implication that she is likelier scum from that statement than town. You'd be foolish to frame a sentence in that manner if you didn't want it to read as an attack, or at the very least, a pointed defense.

Your gut-based read on me falls victim to the same line of criticism you give to Amrun's read on you.

[Hoopla]

Who is individually scummiest (often when lists are organised like this, the top 2/3 never work together)? Who is the scumteam? Or who I'd most like to lynch? They all produce different answers. So, I'll let you pick which one you want me to answer before you accuse me of twisting the question.

- Amrun, forest_air, Papa Zito, yourself are the most suspicious in my mind.

- I like Nobody Special with yourself. I like Zito and forest_air with a lot of pairings. Amrun seems like she has more people she's probably not scum with, which is why I'm not voting her.

- At the moment, I'd like to lynch Zito or forest_air. It'd take convincing, but I'd also be open to lynching you. Possibly Nobody Special if more people start looking town.

[Hoopla]

Sorry if my new posts have been light on logic. My mother has come to visit me. I haven't seen her in a year. We went to the capital.

[Hoopla]

Apologies for my underwhelming input in the last two days. I hate being caught behind, and I'm going to do my best to reattach myself to the game.

I have some outstanding questions that I haven't addressed. This is my answering questions post.

~~

I don't particularly care whether you think I'm being insincere. But, now that you've brought it up, is my 'insincerity' scummy to you?

It's an inherently selfish and insular way to view the game, but early on, I feel like a lot of my reads are largely generated from how people treat and interact with me. It feels reliable because it's the largest sample size of any one facet of play in games - there is always people voting me or defending me.

I find it difficult to believe that a town player would tunnel so heavily on me when the basis of the read resides entirely in gut. That's an awfully large amount of confidence to put in an unexplainable belief.

You bemoan my lack of contribution, but also say that in itself isn't a tell either way. But if that isn't a tell, you're basing my alignment off very little content. How could you develop such a strong read on me if content isn't one of the reasons for suspecting me? Because as you claim, there was little else to go off.

I think Rory was on the right track; you're picking a target you can potentially get away with tunneling on, because at that point in time I had little standing in the game (no content, according to you). This means your gut vote is less likely get challenged - it's not like you're gut-voting Twistedspoon, as you'd surely have to explain yourself beyond gut. I'd have been less willing to believe you were being insincere if activity/effort

was

a concern of yours about my play, because I could have believed one would find that scummy about me. Rejecting this and still having a gut read on my contentless play makes it seem like you picked a target rather than truthfully had a gut-scum read on me.

Why do you think Rory is town?

To continue with how I collect early reads, I've had positive feelings from Rory's interactions with me. He's been willing to defend me in scenarios where he didn't need to do so at all. If he is scum, he probably needs to have me mislynched at some point in the game - and he isn't going to attain that by declaring me as town/sensible/a voice of reason, which contributes to decreasing my chances of being lynched.

I know this looks like I'm favouring Rory purely because he is defending me, but this isn't true - it makes less sense for him to do it when I hadn't expressed suspicion for him and had been going after other players. In contrast to this, I'm particularly suspicious of Amrun's sequence of posts sheeping me onto the Papa Zito wagon.

As soon as I drop my reasonless Papa Zito vote, she posts this;

I'd love to hear why you're voting for Zito.

Which is ambiguous is support/intention. It's the sort of lead-in post that can be taken both ways based on my response, but if anything, there are undertones of skepticism, which enables her to launch an attack if I don't provide an adequate answer. Fortunately for me, I do. I strongly urge everyone to open up the start of Page 10 and read along, while I commentate on the sequence of events;

I drop a vague, but truthful answer of my read on Zito in 227 to see how Amrun takes it. The key line here was

"It's mostly just a feeling I want to explore and see if others share"

- I was hoping Amrun would take the bait. It was a cue to jump on.

Her response was not what I expected. It was stanceless, essentially summing up what I posted. I elaborated in my next post (229) with deeper reasoning for my belief, and she again, just fed back what I said with slightly different wording. It looked as if she was trying to find a way onto the wagon without looking like she was just using all my reasoning (even though she was - post 230 is the killer).

Her way onto the Zito wagon is canny. She asks VitaminR (her current vote) a question, and once he responds, she automatically switches to Zito, citing she liked Vitamin's answer;

Unvote; Vote: Papa Zito

Still not liking that not voting is a scumtell in your eyes and you committed that - BUT your reasoning for it seems genuine and was lampshaded. I am buying it.

Even though she finds another scumtell for Vitamin, she still unvotes him to jump on the Zito wagon. Why? Because she had setup that interaction with Vitamin as her exit strategy off the wagon. The response she got was worse than expected so she had to acknowledge the scumtell, but she still wanted to get off since VitaminR was losing momentum and because she wanted to appease me.

Unlike Rory who was viewing me as town, I'm suspicious of Amrun for how she has been treating me. Although Rory's efforts could be seen as buddying, I think that's unfounded, because he has no reason to. Amrun on the other hand does, as I have already expressed suspicion of her, and it's in her interest to get on my good side. I think that is the key difference between the two. I think her attempts to befriend me have been pretty obvious and the motivation to do so isn't good.

[Hoopla]

I'm really liking CES' entry into the game - I think he's wrong about VitaminR, though. I know he's his brother and should read him much better than anyone else, but I'm still not that confident in CES' Day 1 ability, whoever that is. I am liking how he is playing - it reminds me very much of his town game in scumchat vengeful and upick games.

He's stirring it up and dropping seemingly arbitrary reads, and pushing hard on those he picks as scum. It seems like a reckless, unthoughtful way to play the game, but I think it is his way of collecting reads. CES seems more lurky and less engaging as scum, which I witnessed first-hand in Mr. Flay's Texas Justice game.

In conclusion I'm feeling better about the forest_air/CES slot. I'm kind of worried though, because too many people look town to me. Someone out there is probably playing really well. I don't think Twistedspoon is at that level of fabrication as scum, and I'm still liking what Fenchurch is putting out. I *think* I've figured out who one of the heads of Rory the Roman is, and if I'm right, then he's probably town. One of my other town reads could be wrong though.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

Zito, you're okay for now.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, who are we lynching first?

zMuffin, Amrun or malpascp. Not VitaminR. Take your pick.

[Hoopla]

CES is an improvement for sure, But I really didn't like Forest air

The town forest air I've played with before made plenty of Analysis and such but this one...

Doesn't her flaking kind of nullify that forest_air tell? Or do you believe there's a chance she flaked because of her alignment? Is she in/keeping up with other games at the moment?

[Hoopla]

Amrun is rather null. I had a town read at the start from same initial reactions to the PZ gambit but beyond that I have seen little to keep this read on her. Not liking her copper vote either

Would you lynch her?

Why is malpascp a wildcard? And why would you be prepared to lynch a "wildcard"?

[Hoopla]

Doesn't her flaking kind of nullify that forest_air tell? Or do you believe there's a chance she flaked because of her alignment? Is she in/keeping up with other games at the moment?

Flaking i find a null tell

she's flaking in another game too from what my investigations tell me

Her flaking in another game implies she's too busy in real life, bored of mafia, or some non-alignment related cause. When there is a flake, there is the lead-up to a flake too - it's not an event that just happens. If you're using a tell about her not being as active/investigative - well, she flaked. She was busy/disinterested in the lead-up to her being replaced. Isn't that a better explanation for her lack of analysis?

[Hoopla]

Also, what do you think about my new thoughts on Amrun?

[Hoopla]

Right now I'm not sure who to vote. I see the case on Amrun, but Copper does raise some good points against vitamin, and I trust most of the players on the 2 leading wagons too

So you trust zMuffinMan and VitaminR on the Rory wagon?

But trust Rory, CES and Copper on the VitaminR wagon?

How can you trust the players on each wagon (thus believing both wagons are good), when the players on each wagon are the players being wagonned themself?

Really, all you trust is Copper and Muffin? And this isn't even Muffin's first choice.

[Hoopla]

why is vitamin town again hoopla?

I think he's town because he was coming under fire for his conservatism with his vote, and as his wagon and pressure increased, he stoically stuck with how he claimed to play, which means his conservatism was probably genuine. If he were scum, he'd have more incentive to conform to the cultural voting norms, especially when being pressured for his play.

People seem to be ignoring the fact that standing up for himself and backing his unconventional play is taking a decent sized risk - a much bigger risk than faking a vote on a townie. Those criticising Vitamin for his conservatism, cannot do so now, as the decision to refuse to confirm is not a conservative act.

People who are guarded with their vote always tend to get a rough time. I've seen little to suggest that scum don't vote more than townies. I think townies throw their vote around more, but typically, scum will still always try and get a vote or two out.

I'm less sold on him being town, because his vote wasn't the best (explanation and target). I did like that he asked Fenchurch what she thought of it - he's comfortable enough with it to draw attention to it. There are better choices for the lynch today than Vitamin.

[Hoopla]

Alright, I'll trust you on your Muffin meta for now and hold you to it later.

VOTE: Amrun

[Hoopla]

Copper says the exact opposite and that scum try and justify there actions and town conform

Standing up for an unpopular belief is much harder to do as scum, when the best way to avoid suspicion is by conforming to site norms or things people view as town. I think scum justifying their actions is more common when it's something they believe they should be getting away with or not receiving suspicion for. I think Vitamin wasn't expecting to look protown for his conservatism. I think he just believes it's the right way to play.

~~

CES, is Vitamin usually frugal with his vote?

[Hoopla]

Yeah. I was pretty sure mykonian was one of the heads on Rory. Some of the posts had a prickly, and stretching to conclusions feel about them that myko and his alts seem to all do. The main give away was when he was calling people "towny's" instead of townies - a trait associated to mykonian and few others.

[Hoopla]

Something like that. Ojanen has an amazing gift for picking alts - much better than me. She caught a tajo alt in Ladies Night mafia based on his sentence structure and the timestamps of his posts.

[Hoopla]

The fact you push them with such gusto and believe in them is why you are town.

[Hoopla]

Nexus and I are thinking about an hydra account. Thank you for the help Pokerface!

Okay, so I guess Nexus is the other.

[Hoopla]

Maybe there's a third head?

[Hoopla]

Also, have you ever played with town Zito, Hoopla?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 23&start=0

~~

It's not solely that you didn't post content. Lots of people hadn't posted much content. But when someone posts 10-15 times and none of those posts are even worth reading, that's when I start getting suspicious. I think I already explained this, anyway. I don't care about you today. Nobody seems keen on seeing how obviously scummy you are, so I'll find your buddies first and go from there.

You said that content wasn't a tell when you initially started tunneling on me, saying that your vote was purely gut. How could you get a read that was only gut from my "little content" if content in itself wasn't a tell;

Why? Gut. I think you're scum. That's it.

No, I'm not. I commented that you didn't have any real content up until that point, but that's not why I think you're scum.

These posts qualify your mindset. You didn't think I was suspicious for my lack of content, but you now claim that you started getting suspicious when I wasn't posting content (it should be noted the game was less than 48 hours old in my phase of allegedly not provided content). Those two quotes absolutely show your gut read was independent of the amount of content I was providing - so what was it based on? How could you get a gut read from my contentless posts, if content wasn't a tell?

You're scum. You made up reasons to suspect me, and the case you dumped about me in 279 are all things that happened after you got your scumread on me. You're trying to justify an initial scumread with a catalogue of reasoning dated after the event. That's not a townie mindset at all, and it's why your scumread on me is bogus.

~~

Is there anyone willing to bail from the Amrun wagon to zMuffin?

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla,

So, like, what was your point here?

I think my point was made clearly. I don't want to get in a semantics debate, and I'm sure you've got better ways to spend your time this game, as it seems like we're the only ones interested in this dialogue anyway. I laid out my beliefs in post 450 and my response is basically going to be rehashing the same logic. I'd love it if a neutral party would analyse or weigh in on our debate, because I think I have a case (and I'm sure you think likewise).

PS: loling at this bravado.

You'll never push a lynch on me, Hoopla, because you know it'll mean your death some time shortly afterward.

You're worried that you won't be able to talk your way out of it after it goes down, which is why you're not even going to try.

I absolutely would. I'm certainly not at the point where I'd gamble on sacrificing myself in a "lynch me/then him" or "lynch him and if I'm wrong lynch me" deal, because, well it's Day 1. However, for a Day 1 read, I'm pretty confident with it, which is empowering because I don't normally have strong feelings on Day 1.

[Hoopla]

I wouldn't put it past Hooplascum personally, but let's ask her.

Hoopla, do you think you're overly worried about looking townie as scum to the extent that you wouldn't make a scummy play such as pushing Muffin here, accepting for a moment that that would be scummy, even though it may be the right play long-term? (I'm sure you know what I'm describing; it's not an uncommon failing amongst scum.)

Erm. How much I worry about looking town in the present varies game by game - typically I try and balance how much I need to look town with how much I can get away with furthering my win-con. There's no point bussing your entire team to look obv-town in a game with a lot of PR's who could still luck out and catch you, but in a game where there are none (no external way of being caught), it might be a viable strategy. There's also no point trying to look like the most obv-town player early in a game with normal nightkills, as it sets you up later for the paranoid "why are you still alive?" questions, which is the part of the game where you really want to start looking town.

I honestly don't know how I would play as scum this game. I think the game being psuedo-nightless places a higher priority on trying to appear closer to the obv-town end of the scale. There are absolutely times where a play can be defined as a bad shortterm, but a good longterm move and vice versa. Bussing is the most common example of that - you're taking a shortterm hit (putting yourself closer to a loss by losing a teammate) in order to strengthen your longterm position. I'm not sure how willing or how much of a hit I'd be prepared to take now for the benefit of later, though. Sorry if that's a cop-out answer, but I really don't know how worried I'd be about my standing in the game. My guess is I'd be open to taking a short-term risk if it could net a decent return of town credit if it comes off, because these sort of games really require a scum or two to look obv-town deep in the game to compete with other obv-townies who will probably surface at some point and live until endgame.

Hope that helps!

[Hoopla]

Are you trying to say that when I said, "It's not solely that you didn't post content" that this was somehow incongruent with something I previously said? If so, what? And how does this make me scum?

You claimed your read on me was purely gut. After I questioned you, you claimed lack of content wasn't telling;

You're using (lack of) content as a scumtell for me (or at least a selling point)

No, I'm not. I commented that you didn't have any real content up until that point, but that's not why I think you're scum.

If I didn't have any content to go off and that wasn't suspicious, what was? What were you basing your gut-scum read of me on if not lack of content?

~~

Why did you feel the need to ask the people on the Amrun wagon whether they'd abandon it for a muffin wagon?

Because this is/was likely going to be the winning wagon if it isn't/wasn't derailed. If I'm honest, I didn't look over each player on the wagon and their individual reads when calling for support for a zMuffin wagon. I would have gladly accepted help from non-Amrun voters, and probably should have phrased it as such.

[Hoopla]

Whatever.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, not sure why asking Vitamin a question is "finding a scumtell.". It could have been, but his answer satisfied me. That part of your case is a real stretch. What was Vitamin's part in thix exchange, do you think?

When you created the game, did you consider optimal scum strategy?

I think you crafted an interaction with Vitamin to give you an exit strategy off the wagon, rather than just bailing without a more justified reason.

~~

I try to create games that don't have solid optimal strategies. The optimal strategy should be fluid and dependent on the state of meta in the same way something like bussing is. There might be a time where bussing is a good play, but when towns start believing scum bus, it becomes suboptimal to do so and the cycle self-corrects. I think it will probably take 2-3 runs of the setup to determine what the smartest scum play is for their nominations, but I think (and hope) the answer is situational, which means if something does develop as an optimal play, it quickly stops being one.

An example of how meta has a tendency to self-correct; in PYP2 number analysis came into play, and the strength of it wasn't really known. But in PYP 3 and 4, the town used number analysis to shut down scum (with great success) to certain combinations with the main belief that it was suboptimal for scum to double up (they didn't do so in the first four PYP's). In the recent team mafia PYP, I deemed the town's belief that "scum don't double up" was very strong and in turn made it an optimal play, when it once wasn't.

I don't really know how it's going to play out this game - in the Nomination game Fenchurch linked, there was a strong element of wifom and that was just the 2:5 game. But I think there was information to be gleaned from nomination choices based on the connections between other players.

[Hoopla]

But how does Vitamin play in? You didn't answer my question.

Because Vitamin was the player you were currently voting.

[Hoopla]

NS, Vitamin, Zito, back-to-back-to-back. You can have NS as a coincidence - I'm not so sure about the other two.

[Hoopla]

Cool. As long as we all agree we're lynching scum, that's all that matters.

[Hoopla]

CES, who are you most willing to lynch after Amrun?

[Hoopla]

I think we need to get on with today. Deadline is in four days, and we still have three or four viable candidates for today's lynch. It's time people started compromising if they can't get full support for their wagon.

I'd entertain a Zito or malpascp switch, but I think Amrun's wagon is still the strongest and has the most support off it compared to the other wagons.

[Hoopla]

Why does the difficulty of her lynch give you second thoughts though?

I've always interpreted difficulty of a lynch as slightly scummy - because when someone is suspicious, if it's a town player, more people want it lynched (town and scum), whereas when a suspicious scum player is wagoned, only town players want it lynched.

[Hoopla]

Partner hunting is valid, but it's foolish to believe you can be any good at it on Day 1 in an 11 player game. You need flips.

[Hoopla]

Where's my Hoopla.

Here!

Waiting for the day to end so we can begin the game. Amrun lynch is still fine with me - offered a compromise, people seem content just letting Amrun getting deadline-lynched. Whatevs. Same result.

[Hoopla]

Ohh, why me!

My guess is we're all town. Hoopla's more suspicious than you though.

In this situation, zMuffin would have to be pretty gambitty scum to go for a combination like this. I'm not putting it past him, but it seems like an unusual choice for nominations on his behalf.

Playing 2:5 Nomination games on marathon day (there were 3 recently), I was struck by the seemingly obvious tactic that scum would/should put their towniest looking player up for nomination against one or two potential mislynches. This gives them a bit of credit for relatively low risk. None of us are seen in a collectively town light, and not one more than the other, I'd presume. zMuffin and I have cross-suspicions, and have one or two people each who have varying degrees of suspicion for us, and though CES looks town now, he did replace into a pretty scummy slot.

I was also surprised that in every first nomination, scum always put at least one of themselves up (in one case, both), when the most obvious tactic is to just buy a mislynch and take it to lylo. If scum are paranoid about town picking up on all nominees being town, and putting themselves in, surely that worry should be exacerbated when scum need to play anywhere from 2-4 nominations?

My feeling is, if scum were to put themselves up for a nomination, they'd do it in a situation where they have decent odds of survival OR they'd put two up for the longterm bussing strategy. I don't see a CES/zMuffin scumteam, and I'm still trying to work out what angle they must be going for if they each individually put themselves up.

My initial guess is also that we're all town, but CES seems slightly more plausible than zMuffin if I had to pick one.

[Hoopla]

Well, the other question I'm tackling in my head is why more obvious candidates like PZ or mal or Rory aren't in this group today.

My guess is that there's only 1 scum there, in which case, they're saving some hiding space for themself on odd days. Getting an unlikely mislynch, and then an easy one the next day seems like a good (though obvious) strategy.

[Hoopla]

Oh, I was talking about the most recent marathon day.

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=18046
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=18052
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=24&t=18080

Here are the two old ones, which I need to reread to remember what happened;

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... nomination
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... nomination

[Hoopla]

The one Marathon Nomination game I played (modded by you, Hoopla) Channel and I picked 3 townies. I wouldn't put myself up.

Meh, I know this is self-meta, but I actually kind of believe it. We're probably all town. The risks are too high for each of us individually - there isn't any one player who is

obviously

more scummy than the other in this combination. I don't know how either of you two could have predicted how this day would play out, thus making the risk better than 1/3. I don't think CES would take that risk. I know less about Muffin, but he probably wouldn't either.

When you weigh up who is more likelier to take the gamble, the scenario that eclipses them both is that we're all townies.

[Hoopla]

I guess I'm to take it it's coincidence that the three candidates are the only ones who've posted so far.

I just checked and no lynch is apparently not an option. So if you guys think all three of you are town then what do you propose?

It is.

I'm still going to vote for whoever I think is likelier to do this as scum, and I think the rest of the town should do that too. Information lynching might be viable if someone can reasonably prove/disprove someone(s) based on one of our flips, but it seems unreliable.

[Hoopla]

A question to CES/Muffin;

If all of us happen to be town, who do you think the most likely players are to select us three?

[Hoopla]

I'm good at playing scum, Rory. Part of that is not trying anything fancy; I always go for a VT claim if I can and I wouldn't put myself up for nomination.

(The beauty of this self-meta argument is that it works despite me being aware of the meta; relying on my meta to get out of this wossname also conflicts with my play-style!)

Holy shit, that's amazing. I can't see what I'm doing. Arggggh.

Haha, wow.

[Hoopla]

I 100% believe and give myself to CES>

[Hoopla]

Beautiful.

[Hoopla]

I don't want to vote any of them.

meh. just pick one of us for whatever reason.

i'm picking muffin because i think ces as town is going to be more influential and important, and i just can't see him as scum. i'm also more confident in his reads, given muffin has been wrong about me the whole game, and i'm skeptical about his other reads.

VOTE: Muffin

sorry, muffin buddy.

[Hoopla]

I don't know why you're apologising, although I think it's quite ironic that one of your reasons is that I've been wrong in my reads.

Who

do

you think is scum if you're skeptical about my reads?

You've had CES and Rory as scum reads, which I disagree with. Not to mention me.

I'm not confident of my Fenchurch read any more. Zito is probably scum (I assume you agree with that now). I'm not as confident on my Vitamin town read too. malpascp could go either way still. I could see twistedspoon as scum too - he's been playing well, but he's not that incompetent from what I've seen of him recently. I'd gamble on CES/you/Copper/Rory being town, though.

[Hoopla]

I'm probably a good lynch anyway if it comes down to it, because I know not many people can read me as town. There's always a cloud of suspicion over my head in most of my games no matter how well I play, so there's utility in lynching me now to prevent a mislynch on an important day in the future.

[Hoopla]

I'd prefer not to be lynched, but it wouldn't be the end of the world if it were was more my point. I'm never going to self-vote because there are still outside chances of us lynching a scum today (although I cannot believe CES is scum at all). Two of get to be spared today - I think I'm the likeliest to develop suspicion later in the game, potentially wasting a mislynch at an important stage, which is why it wouldn't be that bad if I die on a Day where we have little expectations of lynching scum.

[Hoopla]

CES is a sucky choice. Do those voting him not value the meta argument? I strongly believe him.

[Hoopla]

I think you should trust me on this one. His meta is relevant because he doesn't betray it. If he was occasionally flashy or gambitty as scum, it would invalidate it - but he doesn't. It's akin to Pooky's Guarantee. Its value/relevance stems from never defecting. In this game, for him to be scum, he'd need to defect from that meta. It's likelier that someone not knowing CES' meta is scum, and didn't realise it'd make him look town.

[Hoopla]

Do those voting him not value the meta argument?

No. Just like I don't really value the Fenchurch bit either. I think all three are town but he's my weakest townread of the bunch.

My Fenchurch meta was an exaggerated conclusion, mostly because it was Day 1 and stances need to be made. I'm not exaggerating with the strength of my read on CES, though.

[Hoopla]

Yup, lets just get on with it. I'm content with myself or Muffin being lynched.

[Hoopla]

Lynch muffin with me then.

[Hoopla]

CES isn't getting lynched. I'd rather volunteer for the lynch over him being lynched, as long as my dying wish of CES not ever being lynched is heeded.

[Hoopla]

I already told you why CES isn't scum.

[Hoopla]

You're assessing these posts now with the knowledge that you have of what liars do in general. In a highly specialised game where we're all capable liars, it's fraught with risk using a standard blueprint of tells to assess suspicion, when patterns of behaviour vary significantly. In some instances, if you can't find unique patterns pertaining to the individual, using tells based on general experience is valid, but in CES' case, that particular pattern is pronounced enough, that it's better to base a read off that than anything else.

I can understand if you find it hard to believe, because you haven't experienced that pattern for yourself, but me flipping town should be enough to vouch for the validity of my meta read. CES won't sacrifice that piece of meta, to play an elaborate, cagy scumgame this time around, because he then never gets to use the meta-out of being a no-frills scumplayer. The value of keeping that meta alive for future games is much more important than cashing it in for cheap town credit right now, because he can constantly reuse that meta when he finds himself in situations where he'd need to be gambitty scum to be scum, if he stays true to the meta. I've witnessed this pattern of play in CES long enough for it to be true. I don't believe he'd throw it away for one game's benefit.

[Hoopla]

Efficient, low-key, gets the job done. Doesn't gambit or take unnecessary risks.

It's similar to his town game. He doesn't take huge risks or make big elaborate plays when a simpler, more efficient method is at his disposal, fullstop - as scum or town. So when he finds himself in a situation where he could only be scum if it's a big elaborate ploy, you default to the other option of him simply being town. This situation is one of those. It's an unnecessary risk.

[Hoopla]

It is similar.

The gambit/unnecessary risk is nominating himself today when he already looked town. The two options are, he is scum and chose to put himself in this situation, or he is town and had no say in the situation. The second option is true.

[Hoopla]

I think my scumhunting skills are about on par with CES, and I'm willing to be "sacrificed" because I have a higher likelihood of being mislynched at a later point, because I have played scum dishonestly before, and am therefore harder to trust (apparently). CES doesn't have that problem.

Daytalk has nothing to do with whether CES would pick himself (or let himself be picked by his teammates) for nomination.

[Hoopla]

I don't know anything about muffin, so I can't verify his claim.

[Hoopla]

Guys. lets just get on with it. Waiting for a deadline lynch is just frustrating. Compromise if you're willing now. If nobody is prepared to move, or we still can't get a majority agreement after the compromised votes, lets just fast-forward the deadline, because we're killing the game.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, I think Fenchurch might be scum after all.

[Hoopla]

Not any more!!

[Hoopla]

malpascp, get in here. Your vote is worthless now.

[Hoopla]

But 100% sure on Muffin?

[Hoopla]

So, you think Muffin is more town than me, malpascp?

[Hoopla]

Erm. There is still zMuffin left...?

[Hoopla]

Vote myself or muffin.

[Hoopla]

He's German, like me.

[Hoopla]

Good game scumbags. That'll learn you for nominating a bunch of obv-townies. Well done to the townies who survived - you all played solid and important roles in securing the victory for town, but I think the outcome was mostly determined by scum's choices. In a pseudo-nightless game you really can't afford to create too many obv-townies. If this were to be run again, I think meta would shift to encourage scum to take risks nominating themselves.

On the back of this performance by scum, it's easy to see how crippling it can be to box yourself via PoE. This setups rewards scum who are proactive and try to look town, rather than scum who are reactive and try to avoid looking like scum. It's too early to tell if the setup is balanced, but I suspect it might be slightly town-sided - I'm not sure how much by, though.

[Hoopla]

I apologize for my sloppy modding. My 48/24 activity policy while counting the weekend as a 48-hour period made things a mess, and my usual practice of prodding people even while they were on V/LA didn't help matters any. Having a prod count rule in place when I can't even keep track of prod counts properly is pretty silly. On top of that, there's the whole miscounting-the-votes thing, the full story of which can be found in the graveyard QuickTopic. Not my best work. That said,

scathing commentary

feedback on how I should improve before my next modding endeavor is welcome.

The game ran smoothly other than a couple of replacements and the missed unvote thing - luckily it didn't have a huge effect on the game. You were swift with votecounts and replacing people, so I think you did just fine overall.

Since this is the first time Nomination Mafia has been run as an open game,

farside22

Hoopla is interested in hearing from the players about the setup. How do you feel about the setup's balance? Are there any changes to the setup that should be made? What are your thoughts on the game overall?

Yes, I am interested. What do you think about it though, Equinox?

[Hoopla]

I'm kind of sorry to see the game fizzle out like that seeing how hard scum (in particular Fenchurch) was working behind the scenes. Hope you stick around for more games, Fen.

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]