ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)

[Espeonage]

Sup guys. About to start reread. Will post when I'm done.

[Espeonage]

Incoming.

[Espeonage]

Espe's Analysis Page by page

Note: I will not be adding quotes. It is a waste of time on something like this. I will provide post numbers on important posts. Enjoy.

OMFG Espe is reading the tread. lesgo

Page 1:

Not much here, RVS, large wagon. That's actually a good thing. Impossible to garner anything from the votes themselves.

Page 2:

Now we have some action. I'm liking Empking. His over-analysis comes across as town, obviously trying to start some action. Good stuffs.
#36: Not going to go into too much detail seeing as it appears to be purposely weak. However this is a rather scummy post. In contrast to Emp, DGB has tried really hard to start a hard serious counterwagon. Either scum or has never played with MoI before.
LMP gets scum points for #46, that was a bad and lazy vote. Like flopping on a wagon. Top scumpick at this point.

Page 3:

Theory stuff and people missing the point. AGM gets townpoints for his post.
Fuuuu – Vezok is town in this game.
Hascow and magua speak sense, not townpoint gain worthy though.
Replacee makes bad vote, great. But does make a good point at bottom of the page. I'm seeing more of a triangle with SK, Magua and LMP but still.

Page 4:

SK going flippy floppy scumpoints
Hindu may be off but townposting = +townpoints.
Don't see what's wrong with LB. Doesn't come across as scummy. Just as floating around the thread too much. Null tell.
Why are people voting MoI. This is his town meta.

TOWN:
Empking
LB
Hindu
Vezok
MoI (obv)

And LB picks up on what I've been saying.
Can't get a read on Spyrex
Kast vote was bad.

Page 5:

His making actual points overrides. LMP looking for meta lynch when one doesn't exist.
Hascow comes in a ignores big issues. Scumpoints.
Plum makes good post. Raises good points. In light of the MoI flip, it actually makes me more likely to think hydra is town. First well thought out vote on the wagon.
LMP is digging his grave.
Andrius playing town. Hydra definantly town.
Ben gets town points.

Page 6:

Just realised this analysis is pretty fail. Eh I'll keep going. You guys don't have to read it. I'll make a vote at the end.
Thor seems town.
Seteal is scum. Not for the vote. For the complete ignorace of everything that is going on.
Still can't bloody read spyrex.

Page 7:

Mainly solidifies my town reads. I can see a voting bloc forming.
Seteal's post at the bottom of this page is exactly what I am talking about just before. It is plain and simple active lurking. At best vigbait at worst scum or even cult recruiter. Active lurkers usually don't get killed until later.

Page 8:

DGB pops her head back up this page. This provides some interesting stuff. I'm actually reading her as town despite her outlandish posts. Actually probably because of it. The interaction of DGB seems on the surface as a possible scum/town however I'm not buying into that. If either were scum they wouldn't have just dropped it like what happened.

Page 9:

LMP quotes AGM from a few pages back and it just occurred to me. LMP's explosion at the end of the page before is actually screaming of a distressed town. Keeping this in mind. Could also be a scum who has just realised they need to go into damage control.

Scratch the first point. It's the second.

Page 10:

LMP is looking more townie. However that isn't making anyone else look more scum.
And then SK has to go ruin it. If SK flips mafia the LMP is too.

Page 11:

Thor manages to nab scumpoints by appearing and putting the forming wagon on the map. Reason? Because he doesn't like the bigger ones. Why? Who knows, he didn't say.

Thor is getting scummier by the post. Avoiding questions and trying to justify active lurking.

Page 12:

This game is drying up and waiting for the lynch. No noteworthy posts.
Page 13:

@ Setael – omfg that is all you came in to post. LYNCH THIS ONE PLEASE.
Thor is looking for town points post lynch. THIS ONE CAN ALSO BE LYNCHED.
Nexus is town

Page 14 & 15 (lol accidentally forgot to split them.):

Ben gets townpoints for trying to unstagnate the game.
Yeah Nexus seems to have town motivations despite Mina's take.

#369 SETAEL IS SCUM - SEE IT? SEE IT?

Magua gets town points for the Nexus derail attempt. Moreso than others afterwards.

Page 16:

Nothing of importance.

Page 17 & 18 FAIL PAGES:

Blank

Page 19:

SK, noone cares about that RVS debate.
Thor makes bad voteS

Page 20:

Vezok, you're town. Can you try?

Ok now to present.

Will follow the SK lynch for reasons i have listed as I have gone. Namely the wishy washy and then the disappearing act. Willing to also lynch Thor and Set. Set needs to eat vig bullet tonight.

Vote: SK

[Espeonage]

I am Maemuki

[Espeonage]

Because they are both obv town.

Neither of them are remotely scummy. The people you are going after are low posters. You seem to be actively seeking the easiest wagon to get on without looking bad yet also staying out of the limelight. Most of your votes in the second half of day 1 fit the MO of a scum trying to hide in plain sight and not caring what wagon you're on.

[Espeonage]

I can't really see any concievable scum motivation behind the content in his posts. There aren't many but those posts are town posts.

[Espeonage]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =3&t=16121
That's as town. I've never replaced in as mafia. And don't read that game. I hammered a confirmed townie.

[Espeonage]

I've also played with ben town before. His play here isn't dissimilar.

And I don't have issue with you avoiding the MoI wagon. I have issue with you avoiding all the wagons. There were two other wagons there that actually would have served a purpose had you voted on either. You deflected when you were asked about as well. But no instead you stayed ambiguous and went with something completely different and unhelpful to town.

[Espeonage]

You were a wishy washy flip flop voter who was trying to get a grasp on whatever you could. Also you lynch provides alot of info.

[Espeonage]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... =3&t=17041

[Espeonage]

Because it's scummy. And you have ties to other scummy players. I would say that you also disappeared during the meatiest part of the day but I'm not sure I can count that any more.

[Espeonage]

I see him asking decent questions and placing a good vote to mobilise town as it was stagnating. Sure it was on MoI but the game needed something. And tbh this just a small point in the reasons why i think you are scummy. There are other votes. The one on my predecessor being the worst because of timing and reason.

Unvote, Vote: SK

[Espeonage]

EBWOP

Unvote: SK, Vote: Thor

[Espeonage]

As I said it came across as from a distressed townie trying to make up lost ground. idk there was a tone shift.

And then it was ruined and went back to how it was before. So my read on LMP is a bit clouded now.

[Espeonage]

@ Magua: There are better places for your vote. A sheeper is not a good lynch at this point of the game.
@ Thor: I'd like reasoning for your Ben vote more than meta seeing as that has been disproven. Also wanting to see you nexus reasons, but that doesn't need to happen.

@ Everyone: I'd like to see everyone's stance on Seteal's alliance. This is my second favorite lynch for today. I have already stated my opinions on this in my wall.

[Espeonage]

Alliance = Scum or Town As in allied with Town or Scum.

[Espeonage]

Me providing the meta was not to prove he was town. It was to prove you can't declare him scum based on meta.

Gut, Beard and Meta: It is a sad day when Beard is the one that holds the most substance.

[Espeonage]

All I could think was Alli sound. Alliance Alignment. Same diff.

Go look at why I think you are scum. It has little to do with tunnelling. That is an issue you take up with Ben. The Ben discussion started because you were trying to backup a read because I called you out on trying to stay out of the action. The Ben digression has developed to where it is its own debate. My issue with you in not that debate. I'm willing to call the point moot and go back to the original. There are two more cases of what I find scummy not including the Ben one.

As for the tunnelling comment, no you aren't tunnelling. Again that isn't for me to dispute with you.

And asking my opinion. It's null on both sides. omgus isn't a tell either way.

[Espeonage]

1. k
2. I had a quick look. Thought I found it. Thought I had rebuked it. Can you point it out.
3. Not as town as before. Still have town read. You can remove the obv.

[Espeonage]

Sheeping Faraday I believe.

[Espeonage]

SK wagon stall leads me to believe he is probably town. The only other serious wagon aka Thor isn't taking off. Leads me to believe I am right. js.

[Espeonage]

Oh hey look, everyone and their grandmother's uncle is convicting me. I guess they're right!

Unvote: Bilbo Baggins
Vote: SaintKerrigan

...that was a joke.

Unvote: SaintKerrigan

But seriously, since I've pretty much been convicted, would people please do me a favor and just get it over with?

Here, I'll even help by claiming now: I am a

Townsperson (Embodiment of the Souls)

. My ability is vigilante -- but I'm not allowed to start killing until N3. It's a really scummy role, isn't it?

There you go. Rope, plz.

I like how the scummy post comes just after I say that SK is town. Why did you claim? No point to. Noone expressly said that they were going to lynch you if you didn't claim.

[Espeonage]

Is it just me or is this AtE looking really bad.

Unvote, Vote: SK

L-2

[Espeonage]

Is it just me or is this AtE looking really bad.

Unvote, Vote: SK

L-2

That particular AtE means SK is town. Thanks for dropping an opportunistic wikitell.

Actually. A town AtE is either actually emotional or full rage. Somewhere in between reads differently to me.

[Espeonage]

Just checked my Role PM. I think I know what Spyrex found. And yes, if my role PM is anything to go by that is a fakeclaim. A word wrong. May just be different flavour for different roles.

[Espeonage]

K well my flavour must be different then.

[Espeonage]

Great this is like a mass softclaim. Everybody stop discussing the fakeclaim before we give too much more away. Two more for lynch.

[Espeonage]

You know on second thought:

Unvote: AlmasterGM
Vote: Espeonage

Something about that last interchange between him and me bothered me. Actually, I'm not sure I've liked the convos I've had with him in this game. You guys might wanna pay attention to him when you decide to start taking things seriously.

What convos? We've had interchanges what, two times? How is that grounds for saying you haven't liked the convos we've had? Seriously. In that little posting you could point out exactly what you don't like and why you don't like it rather than saying that it bothered you and not giving any reasoning other than an empty one liner?

[Espeonage]

Did I misread that or is that a contradiction of yourself?

[Espeonage]

I think I worked it out. I'm just tired.

[Espeonage]

OK so let me get this straight. Because I had a one post turnaround in opinion based on something that screamed "Wait ignore any good points you had, I just lost them all." I'm opportunistic scum?

Yeah failing to see any weight behind that case.

If SK flips scum the people trying to seal the lynch through DGB will be coming under scrutiny.

[Espeonage]

Setael is town.

Please Explain

[Espeonage]

1. Setatel doesn't understand wagon momentum.
2. I have played with vezok ALOT. I feel like I can actually read his alignment fairly well. I judged him town.
3. Ummm, no. Vezok is town based on a strong meta understanding. ben is town because of reasons I have explained already and you are scum for active lurking AS WELL AS completely ignoring most of what was important whenever you did post.
4. Spyrex's reasoning falls down as it is an empty case.
5. Can't answer for mae's actions, sorry.

For a longish post that was a fairly bad case, js.

[Espeonage]

Setael, seriously. When you going to start reading the game and commenting on what is important instead of pointing fingers ignoring most of the game and omgusing? You are still my top pick for CR. However you are scummy independently of that.

Vote: Setael

[Espeonage]

Never said your suspicion of me wasn't important. What I am saying and have said before is that you, just like Thor but moreso, have decided to come in when you feel like it and give posts that steer as far away from everything the town is going on about at the time. It's the most obvious attempt at hiding in plain sight as I have ever seen.

[Espeonage]

Here. Had family stuff going on. Had limited access. Catching up tonight.

[Espeonage]

Unvote, Vote: hascow

[Espeonage]

First one: Scummy independent.
Second: What parts need explaining.

[Espeonage]

Scummy independent of my CR read.

@ Set: Go look at my recent iso in the two other games i'm in.

[Espeonage]

If I were CR, I would have recruited LB, Set or DGB.

[Espeonage]

Set, Hascow, Then a heap of people that I think are scummy through relational tells.

If there wasn't a cult, this game would be won or lost tomorrow. At least in terms of it would be easy to see who would win.

[Espeonage]

Cult:

CyberSet
Nexus
AGM

Mafia:

Thor
LB
Ben
(As of today for the bottom two)

Town:

Emp
Hindu
Vezok

[Espeonage]

So yeah reading this exchange as planned. Then venomosity and speed at which it happened leads to believe it was set up to try and carry one through to endgame. Leaning scum but would believe they are both Cultists as well.

Want a vote count before I vote.

[Espeonage]

Ok.

Now asked why I thought Ben and LB are the same alignment. Go back and look at it. When I read it the whole thing seemed pre-planned. As if they had this thing waiting in their QT and went "Hey, we gonna do that thing now?" "Yeah, let's do that thing now."

Anyway Explosion of posts today. Read all of it. Alot of back and forth. Willing to vote on Set. This has gone far past omgus, which if people will recall was how Set ended up on me in the first place.

Until Set picks up though and considering the turnaround today.

Vote: Ben

[Espeonage]

I am a 1-shot Vig variant. Embodiment of the Warrior for those who want the flavour claim.

I have a 1-shot Daykill that I can either use privately or in thread. I get another shot if I manage to kill a cult member. I wanted to wait as long as possible before using it to maximise the chance of hitting a cult member.

Considering where I am and that I am likely going to be eating rope I am willing to give my shot away to the majority. Recent consesus points to people like Emp, Spy, LB. Anyway, even if I nab a cult member today I'm not getting my next shot until tomorrow. I've been trying to get people to pay attention to my cult suspicions from when I replaced in for just this purpose, to find who the cult is so I can get them.

[Espeonage]

I looked at peoples lists, those were the names that came up.

[Espeonage]

@Espeonage:

You gain a shot only if you hit cult, not mafia, correct? If you hit cult, can you use your second shot today?

Can't have more than one shot a day. And yes I only gain a shot if I kill cult.

[Espeonage]

I said majority. I'll only take the shot quicker if everyone has had input.

[Espeonage]

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh

Really? *That's* what you bring to the table?

Who do you think Espeonage should shoot?

Wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooosh

[Espeonage]

also: wanting to not get vigged but be lynched, when the claim is that the dayvig gets ANOTHER shot after killing cult, is strongly suggestive of you actually -being- cult.

Funny. My town pm is strongly suggestive of me actually -being- town. If you haven't noticed, that shot is basically the last hope. If you think I'm so obvcult, lynch me now and watch me flip town. You think the mafia would kill Esp overnight? Not a chance in hell. There's no risk involved.

Actually, don't do this. Esp would get recruited.

And Benmage, if I was CR and had thought of everyone targeting Thor, I wouldn't recruit him. Otherwise, I would've gone for him.

Someone isn't a town PR. We're unrecruitable.

[Espeonage]

Taking shot when CYS is over.

[Espeonage]

It would be Thor or Magua for the shot. I've had an anti town read on Thor since I replaced in. Which, given Cow's investigate means Thor ain't cult unless scum can be recruited. So that leaves Magua. Next two on list* are Bogre and CyberSet factoring in my reads. Bogre seems like a weird person to recruit to me and I've had a CR read on CSet from the beginning.

So Magua or CSet?

*Using compiled list of reads.

[Espeonage]

Taking shot when CYS is over.

Ignore this, I thought it was about to start. -.-

[Espeonage]

Kill: CyberSet

[Espeonage]

Unvote

[Espeonage]

V/LA for a couple of days.

[Espeonage]

Vote: Vezok

[Espeonage]

unvote
vote AGM

Lynch one of the obvious CRs.

You're just happy for a lynch other than yourself.

Tell me again why we are talking about lynching someone other than a 100% chance of being anti town? Is scum really influencing the lynch that much?

Let's take a look at the must lynch scum reasoning.

There have been two nights of recruiting. Assuming no crazy stuff going on the cult would have max of 4. Assuming that they have an extra member and both recruits went through. Now let's look statistically. Chances are cult have less than this. 1. Cult probably didn't start with two. Just because that is logical. Also there are multiple unrecruitables. Not sure how many but scum certainly can't and from my role pm there are town that is unrecruitable as well.

So look at the amount of players. 13.

Taking out the town paranoia, which is generally a safe way to look at it, but not useful here. We are probably in a 6/4/3. Lets say we lynch vezok. 6/3/3 going in to the night. Scum will be trying to kill cult. Cultists are probably going to be easy to random kill and add in a bit of calculated guessing and we have a cult dying. 5/3/3

We can probably play a waiting game as town seeing as if scum lose a single player at this point they will have to stop attacking town and attack cult. It would only be a matter of time until the cult recruiter dies. We probably have 4 deaths to hit them after the lynch.

That is pretty good odds considering what information can be gathered / what we already have.

Instead of lynching in the dark, even if there is reasoning. Would it not be better to force the action of scum to help eradicate the cult?

[Espeonage]

There have been two nights of recruiting. Assuming no crazy stuff going on the cult would have max of 4. Assuming that they have an extra member and both recruits went through. Now let's look statistically. Chances are cult have less than this. 1. Cult probably didn't start with two. Just because that is logical. Also there are multiple unrecruitables. Not sure how many but scum certainly can't and from my role pm there are town that is unrecruitable as well.

1. Cult probably did start with 2. Why would the cult be unable to recruit N1 if not to compensate an extra member. There certainly doesn't appear to be a scarcity of anti-cult roles. Starting with 2 also allows for mechanisms that it noticeably less swingy, e.g. cult can pick one to be the CR.
2. Bilbo, SK, has, you and Spy are not going to have been targetted for recruitment. That leaves 2 Embodiments left, max. Odds are if the CR targetted town, the recruitment got through. (I, for one, think benmage N2 and Thor N3 is pretty plausible.)

Instead of lynching in the dark, even if there is reasoning. Would it not be better to force the action of scum to help eradicate the cult?

Scum will help us regardless. Town is almost certainly the weakest faction currently

.

That's reason enough to lynch any anti town that we can confirm is anti town. Taking a chance on possible town lynch is asking to lose. If towns situation wasn't this dire i would be chasing the CRer too.

[Espeonage]

Ok,

Unless I am missing something, is it not Occam's Razor that the Crone is the scum fakeclaim?

[Espeonage]

He is saying that the person waiting for a consensus is the crone.

[Espeonage]

Okays, took a squizz through AGMs iso. If we agree that AGM was recruited N2 as seems to be the consensus then judging by his ISO CES (and myself, but lets ignore that.) is the person that AGM expressed interest in lynching then never followed through with it. There was no mention of the turnaround in opinions either.

Also, AGM got away with stopping mention of Magua for a fair while then placed him again at the top of his list of people for me to shoot when he was already a top pick. Magua isn't CR.

Despite how town CES may seem though I am having doubts. Why isn't he CR again? Also LMP did seem pretty bad early game from memory.

[Espeonage]

Magua must be a fire type. Resists Sarcasm.

[Espeonage]

LMFAO.

Went to random.org for teh lulz. Got a 7.

[Espeonage]

That means we have a choice. The original number 7, LB. Or the 7th on the list CES.

[Espeonage]

Magua: Does that unvote follow from the second line in a way I don't understand or are they unrelated?

Given that everyone in the game not voting Benmage has passed up on hammering Benmage ('cept Nexus), I am very curious to hear from some people (LB, Bogre (like that's going to happen), Espeonage) who they *do* want to lynch.

This game is making me headdesk. My justification is like one of those ball in the hole cubes where you just have to smash it until everything falls in to place. because thinking logically about this game gets me absolutely nowhere.

[Espeonage]

Vote: Hindu

Explain cult recruiter Hindu hammering hasdgas with cult recruit AlmasterGM so late on the wagon, both in such a terribad manner.

I mean, I could get it if the positions were reversed. I could see cult recruiter AlmasterGM hopping on the wagon near the end, and cult recruit Hinduragi sacrificing himself to hammer. Witness my play D4. But given that AGM has already shown to be a cult recruit, why would the biggest, riskiest, most high profile hammer go to the recruiter?

Explain how that is even justification of why someone isn't antitown. This is traditional wifom. TOO SCUMMYZ TO BE SCUMZ.

Also hascow's lynch was stupid and quick and anyone could have gotten away with anything on that shitfest.

[Espeonage]

Vote: CES

makes most sense. Despite I just backed him up.

According to AGMs posting this is the most likely recruiter.

And honestly. Too town is no longer reasoning for being town. That approach is getting us nowhere.

[Espeonage]

1. You answered yourself. I don't even care, just figured I'd point out a stupid argument.
2. Because cult didn't have to be on that lynch just because it was a cult cop. Also Cyber had been my No.1 pick for CR from when I replaced in.

Ugh, I'm (fairly) sure you are town. Don't be a dolt. Is it really that tense that you jump at any counter? Either way it isn't helping. Concentrate and give ears to opinions. It may just win us the game, comprende?

PEDIT: That is baseless wifom and you know it. Lack of bussing this game doesn't mean it couldn't happen there. WE ARE LOSING ALL RATIONAL THOUGHT. Fuck this game.

[Espeonage]

Ok guys. I think it has been decided. And considering deadline it is probably better this way.

CES or Nexus. Go.

[Espeonage]

Gut.

Probably if I had to put it into words It would come out as 'lurking for advantage and to be forgotten'
CES at least seems to say the occasional strong opinion that is questionable, I feel like he's more out there. Nexus is lurktastic, and something is up with that.

Yet you push the Nexus wagon as vehemently as you possibly can despite it being based on things that aren't even all that scummy in and of themselves. While I appreciate the use of gut to get stuff happening. Not helping. A CES vote would help though.

[Espeonage]

Yes well demanding recruits to stop their leader being lynched isn't really all that difficult.

[Espeonage]

Oh, the imagery.

[Espeonage]

Magua. I appreciate that you want Emp lynched but a vote on Emp is useless with the deadline this close. He isn't going to be lynched. Be helpful.

[Espeonage]

I am personally not up for lynching Emp as he is unlikely to be CR. Same goes for Ben. I may be persuaded to move to Nexus, however I am more confident in CES.

[Espeonage]

I suggest everyone post a list of who they would be willing to agree to lynch.

[Espeonage]

Fuck.

Ok I'm an SK. I am Embodiment of the warrior. I had three kills with the option of using them as daykills. I was blocked night 2 trying to kill LB. At least that is what I think happened because he didn't die. I have no more kills.

[Espeonage]

Unrec @ Thor

[Espeonage]

Vote: Empking

[Espeonage]

Here

[Espeonage]

Vote: Emp

[Espeonage]

oh I already voted.

[Espeonage]

Just played through the logic in my head.

Scum needs to be lynched today for anyone other than scum to have a decent chance at winning.

But think. Scum know this. There are three people who have yet to vote. One is me (Not Scum). Either there is a bus (Stupid). Or the scumteam is Locke/Nexus or Spy/Magua. I think it is the latter.

Vote: Spy

[Espeonage]

Oh Magua unvoted. Hmm. That changes things.

[Espeonage]

Ok. Thor isn't scum, I'm not scum. That means we aren't in the lynching pool.

I don't think Magua is scum.

I guess I coild lynch locke.

[Espeonage]

Unvote, Vote: Nexus

Bear with my pants on head here. Nexus is scum.

[Espeonage]

Wait no getting myself confused.

Unvote, Vote: Spy

Locke is town. So is Thor. They may be cultists but they at least started town.

[Espeonage]

idk, I go through phases of game motivation. It happens regardless of anything. Would you accept that I think town can win and want that to happen for the trolls?

Yes I am sticking with my claim.

[Espeonage]

Scumteam is Spy/Magua? Shit this game is gay.

[Espeonage]

Unvote, Vote: Locke

[Espeonage]

Is game now over?

[Espeonage]

It is LyLo. If there are two cut people I lose if there aren't Scum has to be lynched. Short and Long. Scum has to be lynched.

Vote: Thor

That may seem weird but spending time debating today will do nothing. None of this makes sense so I do what I always do in LyLo and vote my biggest town read.

[Espeonage]

Unvote, Vote: Spy

He is scum. There is no other explaination.

[Espeonage]

Because I don't know if you are scum.

[Espeonage]

OMG I JUST WORKED OUT THE SETUP.

[Espeonage]

Spy has to die today.

[Espeonage]

If you lynch me scum win. Are you openly claiming scum?

[Espeonage]

ugh I knew who scum was. I needed to be followed.

[Espeonage]

I thought Emp was town because I thought LB and CES were scum. Play make a bit more sense now.

Magua. I didn't answer your questions because through the act of asking them they seemed like such scum motivated things to ask and I was wracking my brain trying to work out what you were trying to gain from asking them. Why couldn't you just have followed me. It was obvious I wasn't scum and it was obvious that scum needed to be lynched.

[Espeonage]

I'd rather have you just lynch me today. I pick dying over being one of those faggots.

....Why did you recruit me?

You were my biggest town read at that point and I figured you weren't being serious.

[Espeonage]

Was he scum though?

[Espeonage]

If magua wasn't fail we would've.