ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)

[Magua]

CES-town? What? I said he wasn't CES-CR. My townreads were in that post where I said they matched up to the scum numbers I thought we were facing. CES has to be scum from that.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaah. My bad.

[Magua]

So you claimed Embodiment of the Crone in order to draw out a town counterclaim?

What was your plan if that occurred?

Please to be explaining this to me, Ben. D4. You claim Crone. What would you do if you were counterclaimed?

[Magua]

VOTE: Empking

I think that Crone is the cult safe-claim.

I think that Benmage was recruited N2, and told of the Crone safeclaim N3 (which would mean AlmasterGM was recruited N3, which is the weak point of my theory, but there you go).

I think that Benmage was the suicidal recruit D3, D4, and now D5. Empking is distancing / bussing Benmage D4 and D5; Benmage was originally not doing anything to Empking, but is now distancing from him.

The key points for me is Benmage calling Empking scum/cult for not cc'ing him, when he was calling Empking town in the same situation D4. Similarly, today he calls Empking scum while at the same time positioning himself for an excuse to move off of the Empking wagon onto Espeonage/SpyreX based off of something that he's pushing Empking to do.

[Magua]

@Locke:

Thanks for replacing in. Please fucking post.

[Magua]

The problem with that theory, Magua, is the clearly genuine "benmage's claimed investigation doesn't match with my watch" reaction + I definitely don't see benmage abusing the self-vote meta as a recruit.

Empking being the CR who recruited the watcher is still possible though. It would explain why he wasn't immediately aware that benmage was lying.

I didn't even notice that Empking's N1 watch conflicted with Benmage's fake guilty on LB. It does make Empking's #1471 worse in retrospect.

(As for Benmage's meta: Self-metas are shit. Self metas that revolve around you playing like shit when town are shit^2.)

[Magua]

SpyreX, I agree with every single thing you've said about Benmage. I really have.

But I simply don't think he's the cult recruiter. And as such I don't want to vote for him.

[Magua]

Nexus. I really don't think you're cult at all. So I'm going to be as polite as I can.

1) Deadline is 4 days away
2) I am being helpful.

[Magua]

EBWOP: Replace Nexus with Espeonage and the message may make sense.

[Magua]

Why would Empking be cult over Nexus? I don't see it.

Why would Nexus be cult over Empking?

Or to be less snarky: the thing going against Nexus at this point is that he's a lurking lurkfest, and...that's about it. His posts are all very meh. Being a lurking lurkfest is bad, but I've seen Nexus do it as town. That is, his play here isn't actually below what I'd expect.

Empking, on the other hand, is capable of, if not verbosity, at least structured thought, which I'm not seeing here and I know he is capable of. And everything about the Benmage/Empking interactions seems off to me, and them both being cult is the easiest explanation in my mind for that.

And why would he not counterclaim and have Ben instalynched as scum? Why would he be that much more protective of his role?

Finally, from a cult POV, it's not about "protecting your role" as not being tied to a claim. Empking-cult wouldn't claim for two reasons:

1) He wouldn't want to get tied to a PR claim that could PoE him.

2) My operating theory is that this is a distance/bus, so he only wants to act like he wants Benmage lynched without actually getting him lynched, which is, in fact, how Empking acted D4. If it looks like Benmage isn't going to get lynched, he's happy enough to drop it (that is, he keeps his vote on Ben all of D4, but he doesn't interfere or even seem to care that its vezokpiraka who gets lynched at the end). It's all throwaway comments along the lines of "Ben is obv CR" that border on the nonsensical in their reasoning.

[Magua]

You're right. His Day 4 end-day behavior doesn't match up AT ALL to a town perspective on someone who tried to out them as a PR. BUT why does Benmage have to be scum for this? I don't get it.

Because Benmage D4 was all "I'm claiming Crone"
Empking is all, "You're scum"
Benmage is all, "Empking is obviously the real Crone"
Empking is all, "You're still scum"
Benmage is all, "Lets lynch vezokpiraka!"
Empking is all, "You're still scum but whatever"

Now D5, it's:

Benmage is all, "Empking never cc'ed me, he must be scum, oh, by the way, Empking, answer this question so I can vote SpyreX or Espeonage"
Empking is all, "Benmage is the cult recruiter"

The behavior doesn't make sense from either perspective. Empking is making pretty big gaps in his arguments ("I think Benmage is the Cult Recruiter and Magua is a recruit", and when it's pointed out I'm voting for Benmage, he's "Nevermind, didn't see the vote count" which just feels so off to me.

He thinks Benmage is the cult recruiter but he doesn't seem to care how the pieces fit together. It's more like he's going through the motions.

@Magua - Watcher is a ballsy fakeclaim, especially in a three faction setup. Thoughts?

Three PRs already dead when he claims reduces that a lot.

[Magua]

I'd say there's a decent chance of there being a watcher, the thing is that of course Empking could be cult recruiter who is using an actual watcher's claim or a recruit who was a watcher.

Empking's reaction to Benmage actually looks fairly townish to me too.

I would put more weight onto this if you weren't voting Hinduragi-the-antithesis-of-a-cult-recruiter.

[Magua]

I'm afraid I'm going to be V/LA starting in about an hour. I'm going to yell at you guys if Nexus gets lynched.

I can't see Hind getting lynched as it stands, certainly not if I can't actively push it, so I will

Unvote, vote: Empking

Nexus is my back up choice to be lynched. So, train your yelling voice well.

Locke, hey. Offer completely stands: tell me you're mafia and I will vote whoever you wish.

[Magua]

Empking posted, and....that's it?

Wow.

Like with this. Which player pointed out that you were voting BM?

No one pointed out I was voting Ben, but CES questions you about me being cult.

As for seeing everything as scummy -- I've managed to convince myself a number of people aren't scum, and a number of people aren't the recruiter. My lynching pool is, pretty much in order:

Empking
Nexus
Benmage
Cogito Ergo Sum

[Magua]

Empking
Nexus
Benmage
Cogito Ergo Sum

My offer to sheep the bejeezus out of you if you claim scum goes out to anyone on this list (and is still standing for Locke).

[Magua]

Oh yeah, so he did. Brain fart, yet again. So what, Locke is probable scum?

There is a reason I'm telling him to claim.

As for you: Your lurking does you no favors. Saying "I'm town" does you no favors. Actually appearing like you give a shit about the game and maybe voting, perchance, or showing up and posting something other than a defense of yourself, would do you some favors. You've taken, as far as I can tell, soft stances on people. You have some townreads, and you have some scumreads, but you're obviously not putting too much effort into either.

[Magua]

UNVOTE: Empking

LB, why the change from "he looks quite townish to me"?

[Magua]

Why don't you tell me who you actually think the cult recruiter is?

[Magua]

Well, it's not like I fucking know either, so let's not use that as an excuse, shall we?

Why do you think it's Empking now when you thought he was town yesterday (or whenever you previously posted you thought he was town because I'm too lazy to check)?

[Magua]

I prefer negotiation over AtE or self-meta.

"Negotiation" is an odd word to use in conjunction with avoiding a lynch, isn't it?

@Magua/Nexus - bwuh?

Yes?

Unrelated: VOTE: Nexus

[Magua]

What can you "negotiate"? The only people I can see who can negotiate anything are scum who want cult dead and cult who want scum dead.

[Magua]

I've been entirely serious about sheeping the vote of anyone who claims scum for quite some time now.

[Magua]

I thought you were kidding tbh. I don't see why being scum would make them right about the CR.

Not kidding at all.

It's not that they're going to be more right about the CR, it's that I have no interest in lynching scum today. So if there's scum in the pool of Benmage/CES/Nexus/Empking (and I'm pretty much assuming there is), sheeping a scum-claim increases the chance of hitting cult by process of elimination.

[Magua]

On the contrary, I believe it is that simple.

A scum claims. Cult can't do diddly squat to this scum.

Scum wants to lynch cult just as much (if not moreso) than town does. At this point, scum either lose if town is lynched, or are at the verge of losing if town is lynched.

If cult recruiter is not lynched or killed at some point, scum lose the game anyways and the claim is irrelevant.

If cult recruiter is lynched or killed, that scum claim will get lynched.

So it's essentially like a 1-for-1 trade for the scum, trading one of their own for the cult recruiter. In the case where we don't get the recruiter *anyways*, it literally costs them nothing.

Or to put it another way:
1) Town lynch today is bad.
2) Scum lynch today is bad.

The scum have it in their power to ensure that #2 does not occur at all, and may have other information that makes #1 less likely.

[Magua]

Yeah, but a recruit could claim scum.

Do you think these things through before you post?

Just curious.

[Magua]

One scum would directly counterclaim; someone else would get lynched, directed by neither of those claims, recruit would get shot that Night.

[Magua]

And? I just effectively found a scum, possibly got another townie or that scum added to my faction, and took attention off of my CR.

You only found another scum if the scum didn't outright claim, which they really should, so, irrelevant.

Added another town to the faction at the cost of 100% losing a recruit, so, meh, treading water.

Didn't take attention off of the CR -- removed two people from the lynch pool (you and your scum counterclaim), increasing the chance that your CR is going to be lynched today.

IOW, it would be the same result as if a cult recruit just jumped up and yelled, "I'm a recruit, lynch me": of the two deaths (lynch, shot), you are 100% guaranteeing at least one of them will be cult. Which is obviously bad play.

@Lost Butterfly:

Seriously, if you have nothing constructive to add...

[Magua]

possibly got another townie or that scum added to my faction

Realized I'm 100% assuming that the scum are unrecruitable, both because of flavor (they're so fervent in their beliefs they're willing to kill for it, no reason they'll get converted to R'hollor) and balance (recruited scum tells cult all scum partners).

[Magua]

All the more reason the scum should fucking claim to narrow our pool of suspects and increase our chance of lynching scum.

Seriously, I expected Locke to do it awhile back, because if we ever kill the recruiter, he's going to get *strung* up anyways. But no time to wait for him on that one anymore.

[Magua]

EBWOP: lynching

scum

cult.

Eh, whatever.

[Magua]

Thank fucking god.

Share your real reports if you have anything of interest, but I'm assuming for now that some of them are fake.

I sheep your vote now.

VOTE: Benmage

[Magua]

Was your team provided Crone as a fakeclaim, or did you just gambit it?

[Magua]

Welcome to "What happens when town gets steamrolled in a multifaction game."

[Magua]

Empking, who are your faction planning on shooting for the next night? Any idea?

Can you explain why you're asking this?

[Magua]

I'm curious if you understand how self-preservationist your posts are reading currently, Nexus.

[Magua]

I can see not voting in case Empking is lying and real scum wish to counterclaim, but Nexus has made no indications of that being his reason.

The real question, Nexus, is:

1) Do you think Empking is really mafia, and
2) Do you think Benmage is cult?

PEdit: Ninja'd

Benmage, were you the recruiter?

[Magua]

(Note: You calling me cult over and over and over doesn't make it true)

You making "I'm not cult" your sole refrain over and over again doesn't make that true, either. You've shown zero interest in trying to find cult, or scum, or really do much of anything except to defend yourself.

[Magua]

I would shoot CES over Nexus at this point, though.

Nexus-recruiter would've either hammered immediately for towncred, or lurked and done nothing.

Not discounting Nexus-recruit, though.

[Magua]

btw assuming ben isn't cult the cult can't actually recruit tonight for fear of the mafia watcher.

That's some win right there.

[Magua]

I hear that cult immediately win if they recruit Empking.

[Magua]

What the fuck? How did you get 540?

Because he got to 539, and then posted again.

No, seriously, have you seen LB's posting style? Four one liners in a row?

Yeah.

[Magua]

There's really little else to do except discuss hypothetical Benmage flips.

I've already said I think CES is more likely cult than Nexus, and I really don't think it can be anyone but one of those two.

[Magua]

Really? And you said you couldn't handle playing a game by yourself right now.

Why is CES over Nexus, though? Nexus' shitty defense?

Posted last page. I understand LB spams a lot, but...

I would shoot CES over Nexus at this point, though.

Nexus-recruiter would've either hammered immediately for towncred, or lurked and done nothing.

Not discounting Nexus-recruit, though.

[Magua]

Fine, whatever. Benmage isn't going to post anyways.

UNVOTE: Empking
VOTE: Benmage

[Magua]

Expected more caps from SpyreX.

[Magua]

Benmage, how do you not get that lynching confirmed scum leads to town loss?

[Magua]

Here's the math:

Chance of winning after lynching an unknown alignment is HIGHER than the chance of winning after lynching confirmed scum.

Just self-vote and get this over with. You're either admitting to being cult or to being the densest player in this game, and at this point I simply don't care anymore which it is.

[Magua]

SpyreX, I apologize for that unvote however many days ago.

[Magua]

And what does your math tell you that would be going into D6?

At this point, lynching cult is the only way that town wins. Your refusal to lynch cult / fixation on lynching scum is bad for town and good for cult.

[Magua]

Logic is utterly missing from your post.

Chance that Empking is cult recruiter: 0%
Chance that you're cult recruiter: > 0%
Ergo, yes, you are so incredibly a better lynch than Empking it's not even funny.

Scum still get to shoot tonight. So we have two chances to hit the recruiter, whereas with your plan we only have 1. 2 > 1. Logic.

Really, if you're town with your self-voting and cult-ignoring, I'm *still* happy to see you gone at this point because you're a vezokpiraka-sized liability.

[Magua]

Let's start with who you watched and killed.

[Magua]

Very unsure. We've had our vig PR (SaintKerrigan), and our dayvig PR (Espeonage). I don't see room for another. Nor do I see room for a serial killer.

That pretty much leaves one of SpyreX or Espeonage lying about their role. I really don't see room for an eighth PR, and I don't see cult having some sort of really-delayed vig activity going on.

Also pretty goddamn certain at this point that Town can't win, which makes me unbelievably sad.

Now, your watch and your kill.

[Magua]

<_<

>_>

Was it...*drumroll* CES?

Looking over CES' ISO, pretty sure he tracked both Nexus and I (specific evidence). Not Thor and not Locke and not Empking leaves Hinduragi, SpyreX, and Espeonage.

[Magua]

I was talking about recruiter.

[Magua]

You think that the cult recruiter can kill?

[Magua]

@Mod:

Please PM everyone who's still alive and hasn't posted that the Day's started.

[Magua]

@Empking:

Do you have daytalk?

[Magua]

He's saying Embodiment of the Warrior is either a fakeclaim, or was already recruited into the cult.

[Magua]

It being a fakeclaim is problematic, because that daykill had to come from somewhere.

[Magua]

Empking, let me put it this way: if you say "yes, we have daytalk", then I am more willing to believe Espeonage-cult-recruiter and unknown-culted-Embodiment-of-the-Warrior set up the whole thing.

Yes, I know your response sarcastically infers that you do have it. But I just like to be nice and clear about such things.

[Magua]

@Mod:

If the cult recruiter is killed at Night, does the recruiting go through? y/n/idk?

[Magua]

You're right.

Have one of your goon buddies claim, we'll lynch them instead.

I recommend Locke.

[Magua]

Going by this, have to believe that recruitment comes after the kill.

Sorry Empking, but you saying specifically 9 unrecruitables when you know you're fake and you are professing that Espeonage is fake means 5 unrecruitable PRs, means 4 mafia, means 3 living mafia, means autoloss if we don't lynch mafia today.

I'm going to wait until Espeonage gets in here and says something, because I'm a lulzy bastard, but then I'm lynching you.
Unless Locke claims to be mafia, which, really, he should've done D5 instead of you. Then I'll lynch Locke.

[Magua]

Great.

SpyreX, Espeonage claims he gets three kills, and that he used the three kills (LB N2, CyberSet D4, LB N5). I could easily see Bilbo Baggins JK'ing Lost Butterfly N2. Doesn't mean I trust Espeonage for shit, though.

Espeonage, riddle me this, Batman: Why dd you kill LB last Night? From your claim, you have no more kills and it seems impossible for you to win (can't kill to victory, already claimed SK so not lynching to victory).

Also, Espeonage, actual claim please.

Now someone explain to me why we're lynching claimed mafia or SK.

Who would you prefer to lynch?

And which of you fucks killed Faraday? I fucking told you he was town.

An odd thing to say, given that your previous post *shows* you read Espeonage's SK claim so you should already *know* this.

[Magua]

Let's No Lynch.

Please explain how this is in any way a good plan. Even if your scumteam numbers 3 living players this seems like a bad plan.

[Magua]

Let me get this right.

Ok.

Empking claimed scum watcher

and claimed that he saw Benmage visiting someone else

, hence we lynched him?

Or did he watch Benmage, and see someone else visit him (presumably the cult recruiter), and assume that Ben was now cult?

Empking is scum watcher, had no visits of note yesterday. We lynched Benmage because he was a cult godfather who's really cult but flips town for some reason. Empking says he say Espeonage visit (kill) Lost Butterfly last Night.

Turns out, that was bullshit, right? However, can we lynch him and still win the game? Presumably lynching cult is the only way forward right now? In which case we have to leave Empking and find the CR/a cult member?

Three scum left + an SK + a cult recruiter mean we can't win at this point, so it's really a Kingmakerish deal about who's going to lose.

I will expound on your list:

2. Locke Lamora - Can't be cult recruiter due to hasdgfas investigation. Can be town, recruit, or scum. Assuming scum bigtime because he just doesn't give a shit.
3. Thor665 - Can't be cult recruiter due to hasdgfas investigation. Can be town, recruit, or scum.
9. Empking - Claimed scum.
10. Magua - Although I'm obvtown, it should be noted that CES breadcrumbed that I can't be the recruiter, making me sure I was one of his tracks.
11. Nexus - I'm pretty sure that CES tracked Nexus as well.
15. SpyreX - Claimed unrecruitable Maiden. Given Empking's fake and Espeonage is fake, I believe SpyreX.
16. Hinduragi - Yeah.
19. Espeonage - Claimed Serial Killer.

Vote: Hinduragi

Fuck off and die.

[Magua]

FMPOV, Hinduragi has to be the recruiter.

Also, FMPOV, I can't vote him without losing and he knows it.

[Magua]

FUCK YOU, I'M A VT

THEN WHY DON'T YOU MAN THE FUCK UP AND TELL ME WHO YOU THINK THE CULT RECRUITER IS INSTEAD OF ACTING LIKE A DIPSHIT?

[Magua]

FMPOV, it has to be you. You tell me who it is.

[Magua]

Because you saw Benmage's play and said to yourself, "Goddamn, that's what I'm going to do from now on rather than play."

[Magua]

Why do you believe Espeonage's claim over SpyreX's, Hindu?

[Magua]

If I was going to lynch you for something, it'll be for your self vote.

As-is, I'm not lynching anyone except for Empking, or Locke if he ever admits to being one of Empking's partners.

[Magua]

Then we lynch Empking and remaining scum shoot the CR.

Or to put it another way: 8 players. 3 scum. If we lynch non-scum today, we lose, regardless of anything else.

[Magua]

So who's the third scum?

Or do you mean 3 as in Empking, Locke and Vezok?

I don't know who the third scum is.

I'm going with their being 4 scum because Empking mentioned there being 9 unrecruitables, which given the information he had meant 5 PRs and 4 scum.

Hey, Magua wants to be recruited. I don't. I don't know what you want. Me self-voting helps him out, at least.

You self voting helps no one but scum. What part of the basic mathematics here are you not understanding?

I got a plan. Let's do this, guys. Game's in the bag.

I'm all ears.

[Magua]

k. Well, at this point, I'm all for lynching Empking and having the scum shoot you. Is this a good plan?

[Magua]

Sure, I'm fine with that.

I had respect for you after your play in DEFCON, Day 3.

Not so much anymore.

[Magua]

I'll pretend you're town:

1) We lose if we don't lynch scum today.
2) However, we also lose if the cult recruiter doesn't get shot.

So who do you think is the recruiter?

[Magua]

Ok. Why do we lose if the recruiter doesn't get shot?

And my gut says Spyrex. I kind of agree with you about the Maiden thing, so that's giving me doubt. It would be a really perfect claim to make as CR, though, particularly at that stage.

Because if the recruiter lives and gets to recruit, then it's not only impossible for the town to have majority, it's impossible for the town to have plurality. And town loses in pretty much all endgames.

[Magua]

Right, but that assumes that the recruiter does recruit, yes? If they don't have the scum figured out yet (which they might, granted), there's still a pretty high chance they fail, given how few town there must be left.

I fail to see where in your argument you're disagreeing with anything I said. Your vote even says you agree with what I've said.

Who do you think the other scum are?

[Magua]

Question: Can somebody explain why people think the ermbodiment of Warrior is a SK?

Because he claimed it. He's either SK or he's recruiter at this point. There really seems to be no other option.

Can the recruitable townie explain why they're opposed to the only plan that allows them to win?

I'm doing my goddamn level best to win this for the town. Winning as a recruit is more like a draw at this point.

Both plans require you to die, though. The only difference is how much effort I put into who I want you to shoot.

But since you need to shoot the recruiter, let's compare!

It's not you, 'cause you're scum.
It's not Locke (

cause he's your partner

) nor Thor because of hasdgfas.
It's not Nexus because of CES.

Leaves SpyreX, Hinduragi, Espeonage.

I think SpyreX is legit.

If Espeonage *is* an SK, then the game is fucked, because the means:

3 scum (you + Locke + ???)
1 SK (Espeonage)
1 Recruiter (Hinduragi)

Leaving the town as me, SpyreX, and Nexus or Thor -- possibly just me and SpyreX if Nexus or Thor have been recruited. But that doesn't actually change anything, because the situation 3:1:1:3 means that we can never lynch Espeonage without losing.

So the other alternative is that Espeonage is really the recruiter and is lying, but then explain where the daykill came from? I mean, I can buy a cult that can kill instead of recruiting (to deal with the mafia), and I can see Espeonage-cult trying to recruit LB, failing, and figuring that LB is scum. But I can't see the daykill on CyberSet D4 coming from cult.

[Magua]

@Magua/Locke - why do you not believe the SK claim? All your discussion at the moment seems to take for granted he is cult, is there something I should know?

If he is SK, game is lost is the gist of it.

[Magua]

Me specifically: #2127, #2158, #2184, there's more but I just got tired of linking every time he says "100000000% that Magua is not the CR", you can ISO him yourself

Nexus: #2556, #2686, #2688

The last two for Nexus are nice because they include you, though you don't seem to remember it. I'll quote:

Thor665: Sounds like you've narrowed your CR hunt list a bit more - who's left on it?
CES: Hind.
Thor665: Why is Nexus off it?
CES: Same reason Magua is.

[Magua]

I want more details for Esp first. If he's a 3-shot SK who needs to be the last one alive, he's basically lost by admitting his role, so I'm curious what his motivations are.

[Magua]

While we're here, who are the mafia, Thor?

[Magua]

Hinduragi.

I mean this with all my heart.

If you're town,

goddamn fucking shut up, quit whining like a spoiled brat, and play the goddamn game.

It was bad enough with Benmage. Don't fucking need you taking after him. Go get modkilled if this is all you're going to do. I get it. You either don't give a rat's ass about actually playing the game and trying to win, or you're pretending that you don't. I can't be fucked to figure out which one.

[Magua]

SpyreX, who's the recruiter?

[Magua]

Fake dayvig?

Do elaborate.

Also explain suspicion of Nexus as cult recruiter given incredibly high likelihood that he was tracked by CES.

[Magua]

LB faked a govern on hasdgfas D3.

[Magua]

@Espeonage:

Claim every detail about your role in your next post, please.

[Magua]

I raged when Hinduragi hammered hasdgfas D3, but it was entirely unrelated to *my* death.

Also raged at Benmage D5.

Currently raging at Hinduragi.

[Magua]

Right-o.

Well, since you're the unrecruitable one here, it's pretty much your ass on the line in terms of finding the cult recruiter. So, who is it?

[Magua]

Thor, I love you.

I have my suspicion about why Espeonage killed as he did, but I sort of want to hear it from him. Also, his win condition and everything else like that. If he's nice and play along I'll happily make him king the final Day.

SpyreX: The fact that all of the embodiments seem to be recruitable except for you is, at this point, the only thing holding me back from saying you're the recruiter.

[Magua]

No, Magua. You see, I'm stuck with the TERRIBLY UNDESIRABLE position of being the ONLY VT in the game who CAN'T prove himself to be NON CULT. I ALSO haven't been recruited so I know that the cult MUST be pushing me. I also know that ANYONE WHO IS TOWN(GOD BLESS YOUR POOR SOUL FOR I KNOW THE HARDSHIPS) is about to be MINDFUCKED. So, no, this is not a whining stage. This is a "I can't help you so just lynch me or I'll sheep onto whatever plan there is" stage. Now, I could claim cop and have a guilty on Spyrex right now. While that would be wonderful, I'm still a VT.

When did the critical thinking section of your brain shut off, Hindu? Why would cult push for you to die if you could be recruited instead? Why do you blame cult pushing on you instead of scum (who literally at this point don't care who dies if it's not them.)

Yeah, I don't trust Espeonage either. If he's only got three kills and he needs to be in the last two alive (being generous with the SK win condition here), him shooting LB makes no sense. This is why I'm asking him for more details.

[Magua]

@SpyreX:

Nothing.

My dilemma is which of you, Hinduragi, outside-chance Espeonage is the recruiter.

Mechanics is telling me its Hinduragi.
Play is telling me its SpyreX.

[Magua]

Given that Espeonage has been onsite and posting, I am content to wait for his answers on his role / why he shot LB.

[Magua]

If I was actually an SK who claimed just a few pages ago, I'd be giving more to this game. When I out my role and alignment, I post more to contribute as much as I can. If I was third party self-aligned, I'd definitely be out here looking useful.

This.

Hey, Locke! You're going to get lynched tomorrow. Thoughts?

[Magua]

Good enough for me!

[Magua]

Who should we lynch today, Locke?

[Magua]

Thor, you're better than this.

That's so scummy.

Goddamn, I'm a laugh riot.

But, no, seriously,

Espeonage

, kindly fullclaim.

[Magua]

Espeonage continues to be on site and posting, just not here.

So, yeah.

I really don't think Hinduragi's the recruiter. He seems, if anything (*again*) like a suicidal recruit trying to attract the kill.

Which leaves SpyreX or Espeonage. Nothing about Espeonage makes sense. If you have three kills, and you and you can either daykill or nightkill, *why* would you ever nightkill? You wouldn't. Why would he kill LB? It doesn't make sense in any scenario -- if he wanted to shoot scum, it would've been Empking, if he wanted to shoot a cult recruiter, it would've been Hinduragi or Nexus, if he wanted to shoot town, SpyreX.

SpyreX-as-fakeclaim is, I feel, just rampant paranoia. A lot of this goes back to his actions in getting SaintKerrigan lynched (which look a lot better for him in hindsight with knowledge of his claim) and his confusion about how he got the short end of the PR stick when Espeonage claimed uncultable and a daykiller seems quite real to me. His play has been...meh...but...yeah, I just can't see anything but SpyreX-town.

So, good luck Empking's buddies, and may the Seven guide your shot well. Were I you, I'd shoot Espeonage. Have fun.

VOTE: Empking

Hinduragi, it'd be great if you could switch. kthx.

[Magua]

@Empking:

You could out one of your goon buddies, and lynch them instead. Gives you another watch to find the recruiter.

[Magua]

Reading: It's Not Just For Breakfast Anymore

I'm assuming that it doesn't, because of this.

[Magua]

The problem is that the kills don't make sense for him being an SK either. So it's kind of...yeah.

The possibilities are:

Hinduragi is outplaying me.
SpyreX is outplaying me.
Espeonage is the cult recruiter.
WILD MYSTERY PR FAILURE OPTION

I'm going with the Espeonage one.

[Magua]

I'm assuming that Empking's fakeclaim is of the order of, "You know that the Embodiment of the Crone is not in this game." If it's a full Role PM with flavor and powers and whatnot, then I'd be more leery of SpyreX. But while I can see a cult recruiter being given Maiden as a fakeclaim, I don't see them pulling it off with the consistency of someone who's really unrecruitable and is trying hard to figure out why other people get to be unrecruitable with additional powers.

I think if Esp is SK and gets shot I lose though. Unless I missed something in my ramblings. If the cult is good at this game the best I can hope for is a scum/cult/me end game and lynching cult for a draw.

Pretty much, yep.

[Magua]

THAT IS A VERY GOOD QUESTION. PERHAPS ESPEONAGE COULD ANSWER FOR US WHAT WAS GOING THROUGH HIS MIND.

Ooooooooooooooooooooooooooor, he can lurk.

[Magua]

Or, to be less snarky.

Nothing about his claim makes sense.

3-shot SK? No.
SK when there's only been two unaccounted for kills all game? No.
SK who can daykill but didn't daykill D2? No.

The simplest solution is that he's lying about his role. How is he lying? Dunno. Why is he lying? Dunno. Where did the extra kills come from? Dunno. But he's not a member of the scumteam, which makes him a member of the cultteam.

[Magua]

But if he's member of cult team why is Spy alive? That's the part meting my noggin. LB was a recruit, not a kill, Spy was a kill not a recruit - derpt-doo, yeah?

I don't understand what you're trying to say. Espeonage pretty much confirm-killed LB (Empking has him visiting LB last night, Espeonage admits to it).

I was thinking that maybe cult could kill *or* recruit, and that Espeonage, having attempted to recruit LB N2 and failing, figured he was unrecruitable, hence cult, and decided to kill him. This would require AlmasterGM to have been recruited N3 (lulz) and to have been the Embodiment of the Warrior who daykilled CyberSet D4 (double lulz).

No, it doesn't make much sense. No, it's got holes in it a mile wide. But so does every other theory for everyone being cult recruiter. Hell, if there wasn't the AGM flip from N4, I would be touting the "ooba is lying, there's no cult" theory.

Most of my Espeonage suspicion is based around the fact that I simply do not believe there is an SK in this setup, and the fact that if Espeonage-SK was really going to claim, why does he not go all the way now instead of avoiding the thread?

[Magua]

3 mafia today; see Empking's "9 unrecruitable" slip.

Not lynching mafia is a 100% guaranteed, non-refundable mafia win.

[Magua]

@Mod:

Prod Espeonage please.

[Magua]

HAI

HAI

ESPEONAGE

ESPEONAGE

FULLCLAIM PLEASE.

Like, everything. Especially your win condition and the details of Warrior being your fakeclaim.

THX

[Magua]

AND WHY YOU SHOT LOST BUTTERFLY

[Magua]

ESPEONAGE, IN THANKS FOR YOU HELPING US OUT

[Magua]

I'm so happy to have this conversation with you, Hinduragi.

I will happily consider your opinion if you can do one of two things for me:
1) Convince me that there's not 3 mafia alive right now, or
2) Convince me how, with three mafia alive, we can win while *not* lynching mafia today.

Either or, your pick.

[Magua]

I think mafia has some info about the cult that we don't too given the no lynch confidence. That or they hope the remaining townie wouldn't side with the cult in voting.

Mafia require no inside information about the cult to prefer no lynch to a guaranteed mafia lynch.

You're grasping, and I'm having a hard time understanding why.

[Magua]

The grasping is that this isn't a difficult concept. You agree there's three scum. With eight players, at least one of whom is a cult recruiter, that makes a *maximum* of four town.

Three scum.
Maximum four town.

I'm struggling to see how it takes more than, I dunno, three, four minutes at the outside (being really generous here) to process that there is *no* plan that involves lynching non-mafia that results in anything but a mafia win.

The only question -- and where your time would actually be *productively* spent -- is who do the mafia shoot? Yet this question you ignore. You say that Espeonage is obviously cult -- hell, cult recruiter by the way you were straight up voting him -- but you disagree with my plan that the mafia shoot him. Why?

[Magua]

Really, your mechanical play today only makes sense if you're scum, but I have a very strong not-scum read on you. So goddamn, I'm confused about what you think you're doing.

Unless we force the Cult to kill me. We know they can kill. We can deduce they're forced to kill. So we should presume they will kill.

Your theory, while fascinating, fails to address why Lost Butterfly was killed in preference to you.

[Magua]

Someone please explain to me the sense in helping someone understand why they should lynch you.

You need less pronouns for this to be understandable.

[Magua]

Yes I know that when I'm scum I always target the next day's lynch victim.

Your theory, while fascinating, fails to address why Lost Butterfly was killed in preference to you

or SpyreX

.

[Magua]

In short: Empking doesn't seem to care that he's helping himself die.

Empking realizes the futility of arguing against the incredibly obvious. He still came out ahead by his claim; far better for him to be lynched D6 than to be lynched D5.

Empking also realizes that he needs to shoot the cult recruiter just as badly as we need him to shoot the cult recruiter.

[Magua]

Er?

Then why'd you quote SpyreX?

By third name, I assume you're referring to who I think the third scum is? I think it's either Thor or Nexus. Nexus may be cleared by tracker report if Locke flips some PR role (and it's all moot if Locke isn't scum), so I'm not really bothering to differentiate them right now.

[Magua]

Though offer's still open for you to sacrifice one of them. I still recommend Locke. Gets you another watch.

[Magua]

I see where you went now. You know, taking ten more seconds to expand your one line question into two lines that actually explain what you want is pro.

Look, there's a reason why I've kept asking Espeonage why he killed LB, and that's because from whatever point of view I can see him coming from (SK, Cult, horrendously stupid town[1]), there was someone better to kill than LB.

No matter what his role is, there was a better move than to claim SK and then simply proddodge.

I can't read motivations that I simply cannot comprehend.

[1] Dead serious that this has crossed my mind. Horrendously stupid town is the one that comes closest to having an LB kill make sense.

[Magua]

So Magua. Who is the better player for CR Espeonage to kill (other than the next day's mislynch and the player convinced he was town.)?

First, show me someone who *didn't* echo SpyreX's "Espeonage is confirmed useless town" D5. I did. Everyone did. It's not like SpyreX was the only one.

That said, Espeonage-CR should do one of these things, in order:
- Fucking recruit somebody
- Shoot SpyreX, cause he's unrecruitable and isn't going to get lynched and probably isn't going to get shot
- Not shoot anyone at all
- Shoot someone he thinks is mafia

Serious about the no one. Even if he can't recruit (for some reason) and doesn't want to kill SpyreX, Espeonage-CR can maintain his general lurking attitudes skating by on the fact that he's a confirmed daykiller and lulz who would give the cult that ability? I mean, you weren't going to shoot him, no one was going to lynch him; he was utterly off everyone's list.

But then you're all "I saw him visit LB" and he just *folds* and is all "Lulz, I'm SK with abilities that make no sense." And then when it's all, "What's your win condition, maybe we can joint win" he just poofs, so, fuck, I don't know.

I simply do not see a 3-shot SK existing. Espeonage seems to not care a goddamn thing what happens.

[Magua]

CASE IN POINT. I've got until August 22nd to think about why he doesn't care. You can damn well bet I'll take that long if I have to. Then there's the "why give CR a kill" theory? And I still believe cult started with 2 people. Now, I believe we know where this takes us. Into moonland. But we were already there anyways. Thoughts?

Here's my thoughts, Hinduragi: I don't need reasons why someone's *not* a cult recruiter. I have *plenty* of reasons for each person to not be a cult recruiter.

What I need are reasons why someone *is* a cult recruiter, and you seem to be consistently lacking in presenting any of those. So: If not Espeonage, then who?

[Magua]

Day started only 5 days ago. Also, just realized it was a 2 week deadline and I accidentally read 3. So it's until August 15th. I've got 9 days. If it takes that long to make a game-deciding verdict, then that's the time I'll take.

Yes, this day is 5 rl days old...and nothing has happened of any value other than Empking giving his report and Espeonage claiming SK in that time. I waited 3 days to see if Espeonage would be nice and helpful; he's not and he won't be. It's not a matter of his activity, he's simpy prod-dodging at this point.

You want to dick around and waste time, that's cool, but give me a reason other than "wasting time". You've had five days to think it over so far, and from what I can tell, have achieved zilch, so I'm not holding my breath here.

[Magua]

Who do you think that best shot is, Thor?

[Magua]

Do you think Espeonage is really SK then?

[Magua]

So what's your theory on no extra kill N1, N2, N3, N4, as well as the daykill on D4?

[Magua]

The limited shot nature makes me think it's more recruited-Warrior than SK. I just don't think that Espeonage is the Warrior. I think he's the cult leader who recruited the Warrior either N2 or N3 (likely N3, because I think AlmasterGM got recruited N2).

[Magua]

Did not parse.

[Magua]

I see. I was conflating my "recruited Warrior" hypothesis with my "recruiter can kill or recruit" hypothesis.

So if Espeonage is some form of limited SK or recruited warrior, do you think cult was given no fakeclaims?

[Magua]

Blargh.

The chances that recruiter can recruit/kill *and* that the Warrior was recruited N2 or N3 are pretty goddamn low. Cult killing LB only makes sense if the cult thinks he's actually scum (from a failed conversion attempt N2), so, that would mean both that AlmasterGM had to be the Warrior (possible) and that AlmasterGM was recruited N3 (goddamn unlikely).

So.

More likely that Espeonage is simply recruited Warrior.

But even for recruited warrior, it makes no sense to kill LB over SpyreX.

Blargh.

The mechanics of the situation point at Hinduragi.

But rereading Hinduragi's mafia games, he doesn't really AtE so much -- more rational defenses and the like. He gives up easily as town or scum. I just don't read him as the cult recruiter sitting so close to the win.

Espeonage is actively, /actively/ not helping. Fine.
Hinduragi is only one actively not helping.
SpyreX is only passively not helping.

I feel like I'm butting my head up against a wall here and everyone else is just sitting around smirking. Hinduragi's all "DUDES NO DONT QUICKLYNCH WAIT IM GONNA BE AWESO..." and then disappears.

Locke is all, "Man, you guys shouldn't lynch me," and then disappears.

Nexus is all...I'm not even sure what Nexus has done or said today, and I'm too goddamn not caring to check.

SpyreX is all, "Lol shoot Hinduragi," which is understandable in his position, but nothing else. Literally only being saved by his claim at this point.

I'm just so *sigh* at this game.

Mod:

Please prod Espeonage again.

[Magua]

If Esp is telling the whole truth I think its borked.

He's not telling the truth. If he were telling the truth then there would've been a reason for the claim and an angling for some sort of advantage. There's not. I mean, plenty of options were available: "Empking is lying," "Yes, I shot LB because I thought he was the recruiter," hell, just about *anything*.

And, my god, to be an SK who is given *3* kills in a 24-player game. No.

He's cult. It's just a question of cult recruiter or cult recruit, and I want it to be recruiter so bad because I *hate* that style of "play".

Soo there we go but regardless of anything else Empking has to die and dragging this out for an infinite number of days doesn't change that simple fact.

You need to direct this statement at:

Not Voting (3)

- Nexus, Hinduragi, Locke Lamora

[Magua]

And I've been reading, not posting. That's why I'm currently useless in contribution. Anyways CR is Spyrex. I can't type out why because I'm on break at work posting from my phone. I just saw the hammer and had to tell you I HAVE paid A LOT of attention to the game so I'm VERY SURE I'm right. I'll try to explain why before twilight ends when I get back home from work. If I don't make it in time, then I really don't think I have enough validity behind this for mafia to take my suggestion so sorry to the town. Also, Thor is a confirmed recruit. I can also explain this.

None of this makes sense. You've been paying a lot of attention to the game...but don't bother to post your reads until after you think that Espeonage has hammered? It was back on Saturday that you're all "Hold on guys let me figure this out," nothing happens, nothing happens Sunday, and then nothing happens Monday until Espeonage hammers, and *then* you're all, "OMG I've got the answer"?

For the record, there never was a reason for me to stop the day and think about lynching Empking.

This is at odds with your earlier play today, and, even more disturbingly, is at odds with your "Hold on guys let me figure this out" post.

[Magua]

@Mod:

Please prod Locke Lamora.

@Locke Lamora:

If you're fucking town, take this to heart as to why you're getting the shit lynched out of you tomorrow. kthxbai.

[Magua]

I'm

really

interested to see how the mechanics of this cult work post game. I'm drop dead serious that if it wasn't for AlmasterGM's flip, I'd be saying that ooba had been lying to us from the get go about their being a cult.

FMPOV, recruiter has to be SpyreX.

Really

curious who SpyreX thinks is the recruiter now.

I'll laugh if mafia has a cult doctor who's been super accurate.

None of this stops me from doing this, though:
VOTE: Locke Lamora

[Magua]

Why do you say me, instead of me or Nexus?

[Magua]

What do you think Espeonage's role is, Thor?

What do you think about Locke Lamora as scum?

[Magua]

Assume that Espeonage is really an SK.

How do you win?

[Magua]

By having cult cult me tonight and winning with them.

No.

Assume Locke is scum. We lynch him. He dies and is mafia! Yay!

Mafia shoot someone who's not you (either SpyreX or myself).

SpyreX-cult-recruiter recruits you (assume this doesn't go through if he gets shot).

You're in one of two situations:
Mafia shoots SpyreX: It's now you + me (town) vs Espeonage (SK) vs Nexus (mafia)
Mafia shoots me: It's now you + SpyreX (cult) vs Espeonage (SK) vs Nexus (mafia).

How do you win?

[Magua]

I'm not. Not that I expect you to believe me, but unless you think that I can be the cult recruiter, it would actually change nothing in the analysis I gave above. If you think Espeonage is an SK, then only mafia or SK can win.

[Magua]

I really liked the Espeonage-CR idea. It made everything nice and easy.

But it's really hard to reconcile with the daykill. Cult recruiter who can kill or recruit is fine. I can see that. Cult recruiter who can kill or recruit and daykill? Not so much. Again, the only way I see that working is if AlmasterGM was the Embodiment of the Warrior, and got culted N2 or N3, and that's pretty damn unlikely.

Espeonage is culted Warrior.
SpyreX is cult recruiter.

Locke is scum.
One of (Thor, Nexus) is scum. The other is town. If the other was cult, pretty sure there'd just be a claim and a roll at this point.

[Magua]

You seriously think Espeonage is a Serial Killer who was given only three shots and then used them all?

Seriously.

The mind boggles.

[Magua]

Thor, now you're just being a prat. Let's go down this path. Assume I am cult. I'm arguing that Espeonage is culted. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN IN YOUR WORLD?

[Magua]

And why would I, as cult, be doing this?

What does Magua-cult gain?

[Magua]

So.

ANd I want to make sure I'm getting this straight.

You think there's an SK in a 24 player game who gets three shots.

Furthermore, you don't think he's NK immune.

Finally, you say that I'm "misleading the scum shot onto SK" when I've said that Espeonage is the culted Warrior, ie, not cult recruiter, ie, not the person who should be shot tonight.

Do I have all that correct?

[Magua]

If you're town (or even if you're cult), and you think Espeonage is a serial killer, then it's game over for you. You simply cannot win.

You think Espeonage is SK.

So I was curious as to why you were still playing.

Everything after that was because the things that you were typing did not make logical sense with the things you were professing to believe. So I poked at them, because that's what I do.

[Magua]

UNVOTE: Locke Lamora

HEY ESPEONAGE!

Do a full claim -- role, powers, win condition, etc -- and I will sheep your vote today. Whoever you pick.

Unless you're mafia, which I'm doubting, you don't win unless mafia is lynched today. So go ahead and give me the claim and tell me who you want to lynch.

[Magua]

Because, Thor, if Espeonage is limited kill SK, cult will never have enough votes to force a lynch without either Espeonage helping or mafia shooting Espeonage. Neither of which are going to happen.

[Magua]

You're disagreeing with the setups you provided now?

I'm disagreeing with your ability to count.

Show me this hypothetical vote count you think that's going to occur tomorrow that leads to a cult win, under the assumption that Espeonage is a limited-kill SK who loses regardless of who is lynched in a 4-way endgame.

So, unless cult is stupider than hell you're cult right now.

This game.

Are you concerned about what Espeonage is going to say or who he's going to want lynched?

Oh. and if by some magic you really are town, than town's only chance of winning is lynching scum anyway so...wtf?

If Espeonage is cult, he knows who the scum are.

[Magua]

But think. Scum know this. There are three people who have yet to vote. One is me (Not Scum). Either there is a bus (Stupid). Or the scumteam is Locke/Nexus or Spy/Magua. I think it is the latter.

Man, SpyreX could be cult recruiter, but he can't be mafia.

Offer stands. Claim and I sheep you.

Otherwise, it's back to voting Locke for me.

[Magua]

I thought about that, SpyreX -- Espeonage/Thor cult buddies -- but Thor can't be the cult recruiter due to the hasdgfas investigation.

I can believe Espeonage-cult thought LB was scum. I can see cult recruiter recruiting LB Night 2, failing due to a Bilbo Baggins jailkeep, and then assuming that Lost Butterfly was unrecruitable, which, after the mass claim, would lead them to think that Lost Butterfly was scum.

If I am CR and Esp is a culted vig every pants on head action Esp has made makes even LESS sense. LB kill? No way in hell. The dayvig with the fake cult caveat? Impossibro. No way, no WAY would that have went down like that.

No pants on head than any other option. And, since mafia have daytalk, it seems a short leap to cult have daytalk, which leads to many possible hijinx.

[Magua]

Esp knowing I'm scum would be an awesome trick and pretty clearly he obviously knows I am from how those posts were.

Share with the rest of the class, please.

[Magua]

You're a cheeky git. Who's the recruiter in your world?

[Magua]

Yeah, so, yeah.

VOTE: Locke Lamora

[Magua]

Espeonage, are you sticking with your "I'm a limited kill SK and I've used up all my kills" claim?

I'm just curious, because you didn't seem to give two shits about winning yesterday with your prod dodging and all, and now there seems to actually be zero way for you to win unless you're lying. So you're giving a shit about the game is kind of evidence that you're lying.

[Magua]

I'm just curious, because you didn't seem to give two shits about winning yesterday with your prod dodging and all, and now there seems to actually be zero way for you to win unless you're lying. So

you're

your giving a shit about the game is kind of evidence that you're lying.

EBWOP before Thor can correct my grammar

[Magua]

Well, if you want us to win, why don't you answer a few questions that makes our win more likely?

1) What's your win condition, exactly?

2) Were you provided Warrior as a fakeclaim? Did the fakeclaim specify exact abilities, or was it just "You know that Embodiment of the Warrior is not in this game"?

3) How come you did a Night-kill on LB instead of Daykilling him?

[Magua]

FMPOV:

Thor can't be the cult recruiter, due to hasdgfas investigation
Locke can't be the cult recruiter, due to hasdgfas investigation
Nexus can't be the cult recruiter because of massive breadcrumbing from Cogito Ergo Sum that he followed Nexus and got a no visit
Magua can't be the cult recruiter because I'm not, and because of massive breadcrumbing from Cogito Ergo Sum that he followed Nexus and got a no visit
Espeonage can't be the cult recruiter because he's either a limited shot SK or he's recruited Embodiment of the Warrior

Means SpyreX is the cult recruiter, or game is beyond fucked.

The end.

The only question remaining is, are Thor665 and Nexus the mafia, in which case, they'll win the next time Nexus posts. Otherwise, man, it'd be nice if one of (Nexus, Espeonage) could lynch Locke, the mafia could shoot SpyreX, and then we can play an absolutely soul-crushing Kingmaker. THat'd be awesome.

[Magua]

@Magua - wanna switch to Nexus

Let me think about it.

No.

I'll sheep that, and then you can get over your pet theory that I'm scum with him...because I'm the last town - derp, derp.

I believe I am "get(ting) over (my) pet theory" by letting Nexus hammer Locke.

[Magua]

But if your pet theory is correct a Nexus hammer makes you lose - so...what am I missing?

My therapist says I need to confront my fears head-on.

[Magua]

You know what, I'm just going to call it like this.

SpyreX: Cult recruiter
Espeonage: Culted Embodiment of the Warrior
Locke Lamora: Scum
Nexus: Scum
Thor665: Townie who's going "wtf how am I still town?"
Magua: Townie who's going "wtf how am I still town?"

[Magua]

Again with this.

If Esp is cult WITH me as his recruiter why in GODS NAME IS HE HURFIN AND NOT LYNCHIN'.

WHY IS HE DOING ANY OF THE THINGS HE'S DOING?

YOUR TACTIC OF SAYING HIS PLAY MAKES THE SCENARIO UNREASONABLE ONLY WORKS IF HIS PLAY IS OTHERWISE REASONABLE.

Still *really* happy to sheep Espeonage if he claims something other than Serial Killer.

[Magua]

Nexus not immediately hammering rules Nexus out as mafia with anyone but Locke.

[Magua]

FMPOV, since I'm not scum and I don't see SpyreX as scum (regardless of whatever Espeonage says) and I don't see Espeonage as scum, that also pretty much confirms Locke Lamora is scum, so, yeah.

Let's go.

[Magua]

With every further day that this game goes on, my willpower to resist just lynching the everloving bejeezus out of you goes down.

[Magua]

99.8% sure it's not.

Why don't you take a moment to answer the questions I asked earlier:

1) What's your win condition, exactly?

2) Were you provided Warrior as a fakeclaim? Did the fakeclaim specify exact abilities, or was it just "You know that Embodiment of the Warrior is not in this game"?

3) How come you did a Night-kill on LB instead of Daykilling him?

[Magua]

EBWOP: That quote should say "Magua wrote", not "Espeonage wrote", obv.

[Magua]

I see no situation where you're not scum. I simply do not see a SpyreX + Thor scumteam. Every other pairing had and passed up the opportunity to hammer you.

[Magua]

Ok, seriously, what the fuck.

There's no recruiter. I see zero way in which there is a recruiter in this game. There's some other recruiting mechanic, but it's not a person with a role.

Can't be two mafia or the game would be over.

So one mafia -- Thor or Nexus.
Espeonage.
SpyreX is pretty sure town now, because I see no way that he wouldn't've won by recruiting otherwise.

99% that I want to lynch Espeonage today.

[Magua]

I'm saying that if there's one mafia (and I believe there's only one mafia, otherwise, lulz, game would be over -- two mafia have no incentive to shoot Espeonage or NK, and one of those two things happened) then we can take the sure lynch on Espeonage over the 50/50 lynch on you/Nexus.

Also, Magua - if you're claiming SPy as town and you as town than...what, Espeonage recruiter who hasn't recruited anyone? Seriously?

Since you're so dismissive of this, I'd *loooove* to hear your counter-theory that has SpyreX as not-Town. SpyreX is a cult recruiter who hasn't recruited you? I mean, that's what you have to be selling.

I don't think there's a recruiter at this point. I think the cult gains members through some other unknown mechanic.

[Magua]

Espeonage.

Answer my goddamn questions.

1) What's your win condition, exactly?

2) Were you provided Warrior as a fakeclaim? Did the fakeclaim specify exact abilities, or was it just "You know that Embodiment of the Warrior is not in this game"?

3) How come you did a Night-kill on LB instead of Daykilling him?

[Magua]

Fuck if I know. Nothing about this setup has made sense after D3.

If you're asking me because you're trying to float Espeonage-as-scum, no, I don't buy it. That would mean that Espeonage-as-last-mafia had to have NK'ed last night, which I'm so not seeing.

Working assumption is that mafia shot Espeonage, and Espeonage is bulletproof SK.

Why mafia would shoot Espeonage over *you* is an interesting, albeit separate, topic.

[Magua]

That would mean that Espeonage-as-last-mafia had to have NK'ed last night, which I'm so not seeing.

EBWOP: That's NK as in "not killed."

[Magua]

If there's two mafia, regardless of whether that mafia group contains Espeonage, then they shoot anyone but Espeonage. Anyone at all. And they win.

So there's not two mafia left. There's one mafia left.

Then there's Espeonage, our claimed SK.

So just going with that, to win, we have to lynch Espeonage and lynch the mafia.

There may be some cult role out there. DUNNO. IT'S CERTAINLY NOT A GODDAMN RECRUITER AT THIS POINT. But we've only got two lynches. So tough shit there. We can't lynch any cult.

I am very much of the persuasion that we lynch Espeonage, who is 99% not mafia but 100% not town, and then mafia shoots someone and we have a nice three way lylo tomorrow.

PEDIT: ESPEONAGE ANSWER MY QUESTIONS HOW IS THIS HARD?

[Magua]

HOFJASDLGHJSDVKLSDL:VJSGL:SDKJG"

HOW DOES THAT EVEN MATTER?

[Magua]

OMG KINDLY FUCKING SHARE

AND ANSWER MY QUESTIONS TOO

[Magua]

You're going to find that difficult to arrange with me voting you.

[Magua]

Where'd you get AGM being a survivor from?

Espeonage's entire play after his claim makes no sense.

[Magua]

Er. Which part? 3 scum doesn't make sense, no. I saw Locke's flip and figured it was game over. But that's what we have to work with.

If Espeonage doesn't bother to answer my questions, I'll vote him and move on from there.

I simply have no clue with the cult. Massclaim was D5, and Empking was even claimed before N5, so N5, N6, N7 and there is for sure 10000000% not 3 cult or, again, game would be over. There is some mechanic where eithe rthe choices are predetermined, or it's not an every Night thing. My current theory is that there was a list compiled pregame about who would be targetted every Night, and most of those people simply wound up dead. But it's just a theory, and not a particularly good one.

[Magua]

WHY ARE WE NOT LYNCHING THE CONFIRMED NON-TOWN IN ESPEONAGE?

We are. I was really just waiting for everyone to check-in and see if anyone claimed wacky hijinx.

VOTE: Espeonage

If Espeonage flips any sort of cult-related role, then I think SpyreX is the last mafia. If he flips Limited-shot SK, then, lolidunno.

[Magua]

Not possible.

5.There are no weird mechanics or situations where the mod will lie to the players to detract from the enjoyment of the game.

[Magua]

Flail more. If there were two scum, they would've already won by shooting *anyone but you*.

You've shown you have no interest in helping the town.

You refuse to answer the questions that could help the town.

Die.

[Magua]

However, I'm missing two pieces of connect in your logic:

1.) IF Esp is not scum (probably true) but has been seen committing a kill why would scum NOT shoot him last night? 5 going into night assuming a kill is a 50/50 shot of being double screwed from scum aspect assuming >1 scum left.
2.) Why is 2 scum remaining being thrown out because of the above?

If you think there's two scum left, you can feel free to tell me who you think they are, SpyreX.

[Magua]

ugh I knew who scum was. I needed to be followed.

YOU COULD'VE CLAIMED LIKE THE EIGHTY THOUSAND TIMES YOU HAD THE CHANCE TO.

But, no.

Thor did a great job. I was thinking SpyreX could be scum or cult somewhere around D5 and that kept growing, but I kept slotting Thor into a townslot. That was a good job on their part.

Don't understand why they shot Espeonage the final Night instead of shooting anyone else and winning. Guess they were scared he was going to shoot them, going by SpyreX's posts.

I definitely don't begrudge mafia their win here. They did the best job of the factions.

[Magua]

Was right on cult recruiter being able to kill or recruit.

Was right that LB was targetted N2.

Was wrong that the cult recruiter wouldn't be able to dayvig. =P

Didn't expect that recruitment could be refused. That seems like a *really* bad idea, balance-wise, as you're almost always better off rejecting recruitment. Yeah, Andrius problem, but that's part of being in a cult-game.

[Magua]

THOR

THOR

IF YOU COULD'VE TURNED YOUR BACK ON THE OLD FAITH

WE COULD'VE LYNCHED ESPEONAGE

AND THEN LYNCHED SPYREX THE NEXT DAY

AND TURNED THIS GAME INTO A TOWN WIN

HOLY SHIT

HOW COULD YOU BETRAY ME LIKE THIS?

[Magua]

TOWN WIN

32,767 MISLYNCHES AND TOWN DEATHS

AND IT STILL COULD'VE BEEN A TOWN WIN

SO GODDAMN CLOSE

[Magua]

Cult game..lol everyone was afraid of the boogyman! Scum did do a good job maintaining that fear for wayyy to long. Tsk tsk.

Why did Magua vote confirmed nonscum Espe and hand scum the win?

Thought there was only one scum at that point.

Why didn't Espe NK Empking the claimed scum watcher?

Why indeed. This got mentioned repeatedly (along with "Why not shoot the claimed non-recruitable SpyreX?").

Raise your hand if you lynched town over openly claimed scum, where you had to lynch scum the next day anyways.

You, in particular, need to give a long, deep thought before you try to say anything about bad town play.

[Magua]

Thor, you realize that I'm now going to treat "You're better than this" as a legitimate scumtell I can use on you.