ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)

[SpyreX]

?

[SpyreX]

Actually with the way this is playing out I think Emp is a scum watcher. Cult or town have far more to gain from untying the unrecruitable knot instead of hoping it passes by.

6/1 no cult?

This should come as the shockiest of shocks but watching benmage escape AGAIN makes me seethe.

[SpyreX]

5/1 no cult thanks to awesome at typing.

Orrr, to put this another way: why wouldn't cult claim stranger at this juncture?

[SpyreX]

Regardless it isn't adding up right now that I'm actually thinking about it.

*This is assuming (and its a tenuous assumption) Esp is town and a vig and unrecruitable.
*This is also assuming all 7 are present in some fashion be it fakeclaims or not.

Watcher for cult would be a red herring - if Esp is I'd expect all the town roles to be unrecruitable (which puts it at 8-9 unrec in the game). For scum it would be a double bonus as any successful watch would be a KOS (either cult culting OR town PR).

On that note if there are 4 scum AND all 7 ARE town there's 11 unrec or weird scum mechanics - AND this would mean both scum and cult are given just the generic vanillas. So I dont buy that.

If we're looking at 5/1/1 which is possible I'd bet on Emp-scum and Stranger-cult.

Which, of course, begs WHY cult didn't claim it if they had it before it got to this point.
Now, on the other side, IF cult doesn't have it AND Esp is town then the natural progression is town PR's are unrec. Cult recruit claiming stranger could get a town unrec lynched at best OR point the recruit attempt in a better direction.

So: Why wouldn't cult claim stranger?

Of course after all those words its obvious that barring VERY specific circumstances I wouldn't buy a town-stranger claim anyways but.

[SpyreX]

Vanilla claim + massclaim go = fabulous prizes.

I dont want to wait 6 days.

Here's where I sit:
Emp is far more likely scum than cult.
Benmage will never be lynched because he's cult and this is obvious YET he has the added bonus of being pants on head enough scum aren't going to do us those favors either. Awesome.
Hindu's culthunting as cult makes me confused. Maybe cult, probably not CR, probably not scum.
Thor is a tilt-a-whirl that doesn't look like a CR to me BUT could be any world.
Magua made me feel good until no benmage then I was sad. Irritations aside, I ACTUALLY think he may for reallies be town now.
Esp is probably worthless town. YES
Bogre is dead weight and can die anytime although more likely scum than cult at a gut.
At this point if neither CES and LB have been culted I'd be surprised. This is guaranteed if benmage is cult (he is).
Nexus is also dead weight and could actually be floating the CR float. His activity is less here than elsewhere on site (although not GIANT amounts) but his content here is waay less.

I still want Ben dead a lot.
When that can't happen I could see Nexus.

I DONT want Empking (scum), Esp (town), magua (town) lynched. Anyone else I could easily be persuaded.

[SpyreX]

Good lord did I screw up again?

What were hasgafasdsdsasdadsas results? Bogre and Thor?

LB-recruiter COULD be. Part of it is liking early play and watching it devolve which makes me think recruit versus recruiter.

What do you think about my Emp-scum / Stranger-cult fakeclaim thoughts?

[SpyreX]

Is this a trick question? N2/N3 being whichever wasn't the one AGM was.

All it couldn't be would be N4 under the assumption that Emp-scum would have no reason to lie (which is pretty safe).

whelming
________

Nexus's post

Ohh P-Edit:

YESSIR BUSTED ohhh man you picked a bad day to go "ohh my metas are /emo and you're a big meanie."

BLOOD AND FIRE time

[SpyreX]

Or I will have to take some of that back.

Looking at your other games cursory you are consistently worthless. Nice. NICE even.

So we'll leave it at 65 posts and that's tech enough.

------

Good lord what is with the beetlejuice all of a sudden.
None of my theories are iron-clad. Yes, Thor, Benmage, AGM & LB can't be cult recruits together from what we know huzzah!

[SpyreX]

I'm still here because I can STILL have hope that this gets pulled together and Benmage actually gets lynched but god forbid.

But good lord I'd spite hammer "I'm getting called out for not playing the gammeee" in a second.

[SpyreX]

You're not even "defending" yourself against it.

You went META = lurk PS META = you're scum for calling me out on it.

Yes. Blood and fire.

As for what I'd want?

Hmm.

That's tough.

Maybbe....

PLAY THE GAME OHH SHIT A REVELATION

P-Edit:

Yea those were great reads. Glad to see all those "reasons" for hop on opinions like Hindu being 'anti-town', me not even being in the game, et all.

[SpyreX]

Here's the state of affairs:

SCUM (probably 3 remaining):
Empking++
Bogre
???

CULT (at least 3 remaining, probably 4:):
Embodiment of the Stranger whomever claims it
Benmage
LB/CES
Thor maybe*

DEATH PILE:
Nexus

[SpyreX]

2dumb4scum?
Hindu has made no waves?
Poor Thor isn't even here

How in the hell does UNKNOWN ENTITIES even work?
That's as pants on head as when benmage said I was "under the radar" this whole game.
I have 211 (see your number times infinity billion) posts here that have words in them. If you are town (ohhh SNAP) using those words to do things might be helpful.

[SpyreX]

If LB isn't cult then I've got a sinkin' suspicion you are CES which means its hard to trust.

Especially with what just happened *gasp*

[SpyreX]

No thats not what I was saying. Sheesh.

I'm saying "Sup I'm vanilla yea we should totally massclaim" is awesome.

[SpyreX]

One last time and I swear I'm done with this for today but lets go over JUST THIS PAGE god in heaven:

1.) Ben says Empking is scum because he was given a safeclaim from the mod that the mod gave to someone else. (note: while Empking is scum this shows the pants on head here)
2.) Ben says that mafia is the threat TODAY.
3.) Ben says that Empking is scum and still pushes the recruitment angle UNDER the guise of getting Esp and I (unrecruitables) lynched.

Seriously all that is missing is:

4.) Ben just claims cult. Seriously.

YES I know Ben is waaaay more likely to be recruited than recruiter but god in heaven I dont know what else you can want. WHAT MORE DOES IT TAKE.

-----

Hindu you've went crazy and "How could you see me as a CR" by itself is the same as busted scum going "But how could I be scum?"

[SpyreX]

Kinda like a CR with the added benefit of this being madness right now, rite.

Not that I'm sold on CES being a CR by any wide margin BUT.

[SpyreX]

Empking is still waaay more likely to flip scum lets not do this again, please.

[SpyreX]

Locke's post requires a full brain for me to rip apart but good lord some of that ruckus is so bad I have no words. The simple fact he was (right?) one of the non-cr results is the only reason it doesn't go there.

I know I said I was done but I lied: Benmage said lynch scum kill cult is awesome when it maintains the status quo in most scenarios... which, again, with less people is what.. a cult win gg world WHY CANT YOU GUYS HELP ME GOD

[SpyreX]

The biggest reason I DONT think you are the CR is the simple ego of me early on being so wrong about you being town. The play and this whole debacle that the biggest argument against is "Well, its so stupid he can't be." Well, look who's still alive, no?

What is important is I'm pretty damn sure you're cult AND that gives a for real chance of getting ahead of the status quo then lynching Empking who in my head goes scum, town, space invader, pirate, in a different game, cult in the chances of that happening.

[SpyreX]

Unless there was an idiotic amount of scum (there wasn't) and this game started with 3-4 (so now 2-3 with Empking ready to go whenevs):

YES I SAID EXACTLY THIS BEFORE.

Growing threats need to be destroyed. Period.

[SpyreX]

I'm betting on 9 unrecruitables. 4 scum 5 town.

2 to start even if they MISSED one is still a growing threat.

I just wish LB would claim Stranger so it all made sense and you'd die.

I mean good lord look at your words there its not "I'm town lynching me is bad."

[SpyreX]

You know this game is going to be the first, and hopefully, only time I'm going to use meta when its done.

To get you lynched every game because regardless of your alignment this is retarded.

No I'll stick to staying "under the radar".

[SpyreX]

As for seeing everything as scummy -- I've managed to convince myself a number of people aren't scum, and a number of people aren't the recruiter. My lynching pool is, pretty much in order:

Empking

Nexus
Benmage
Cogito Ergo Sum

Tell me where you disagree with scum chances being higher than cult chances on Emp and we can talk.

[SpyreX]

I'm done fighting this its still retarded and I swear to god when he DOES NOT flip cult we're having words.

Or you can just sheep me and maybe we'll actually lynch cult at least true story.

Unvote, Vote: Empking

[SpyreX]

Because you're not cult and this is retarded for some of the reasons listed above and the simple fact ohh SNAP a dead watcher welll.

There's also like 2 days remaining and god in heaven does this day need to end.

There's also the simple fact you're probably scum over town so its not a total loss.

And, of course, when you flip watcher of either alignment you can damn well bet cult is all over this lynch.

BUT SPYREX YOU ARE ON IT WAAAA

I dont think this whole wagon is cult/scum so there's some players that need words come the morrow.

And this is me acknowledging Benmage and then ignoring his request for words.

[SpyreX]

You know you COULD just go ahead and claim scum so I can get :smug: and then we can lynch from there and lynch you tomorrow right?

Because seriously that post is not town going down in flames but ALAS CULT EMPKING THE WATCHER.

But, regardless I reserve the right to hammer but I'll play you cheeky monkey.

Unvote

[SpyreX]

Ohhh I check in today to this?



When this is a cult flip you can expect a giant one tomorrow. Bigger than the universe.

Emp: I assume you are unrecruitable? Are ALL your jerks unrecruitable?

If yes then we'll never see a stranger claim. Bank it.

Unvote, Vote: Benmage

JUST SO I AM ON THE WAGON I AM THE HAMMER DONT YOU NOT MAKE ME THE HAMMER OOBA

[SpyreX]

I'm at work and this keyboard makes a lot of noise.

My four smugmen of the apocalypse are good enough for now.

[SpyreX]

Someone HAMMER god.

You know why he "doesn't get it"

remember smug.gif. Remember this day.

Good lord he says he gave us vezok and emp. I wish I lived in that world because it probably has ponies and golden flying pigs too

[SpyreX]

All is forgiven magua.

[SpyreX]

Benmage you are retarded.

Two kills AND Empking's claiming esp did one?

The one scenario that's flat out is Emp / Esp scum. That would be the dumbest thing in history with Emp being outed as scum. So, this is either a lie to try to live (wont work) or the truth (two kills gives that some plausibility).

So, the question is: what the hell is Esp, why did he lie?

Esp as cult recruiter hurts the head. That means cult had a kill. D4 and N5 neuters any kind of even/odd mechanics. Unless it was recruit A person and then have a cycle kill. Which is something but kinda paints a bastard tint even on cult if its not a real cult.

Esp as lying town would be par for the idiot course. However, despite Magua's farily legit no sk claim and considering my PROVEN TRACK RECORD with flavor I've got a different theory that just jumped into my head and would be amazing and fit:

Esp is an SK. More specifically he's a faceless man representing the Temple of Black and White. Even more specifically he's been given some serious nod to the book flavor and has three kills he can use at any time.

The problem with that is two kills at this point makes NO sense under any guise and is pretty much busted.

----

The only plus we have is that chances are decent that with NEITHER CES or LB being cult (which was actually surprising) that one of them was the cult attempt last night.

Which gives pretty much this being the only chance for town to win I can think of :

1.) Lynch Empking. If there's 4 scum total (and another kill makes me pretty sure about that) a lynch today on not scum is game regardless.
2.) Scum kill ESP. This is kinda a double hope because either he's SK and he's going to kill and there will be crosskills OR he's a recruiter and killing happens clearly before recruitment so.
3.) This puts us at 6/2 scum tomorrow. If Esp isn't the cult recruiter AND there's 2 recruits then I get to decide a winner huzzah!
--- If Esp is the cult recruiter hopefully that puts it at 2/2/2 and its lynch scum AND hope for scum to hit cult for a 1/2/1. From there its lynch scum and then find the cult.

... Yea I'm not winning this game.

BUT THERE IS HOPE.

[SpyreX]

Magua's right I'd absolutely let you sacrifice another one to live another day.

Of course that narrows it down for cult though :tinfoil:

[SpyreX]

You cheeky bastards.

There are 7, right? 3 dead, Esp, Emp, Spy. That leaves 1. Not very helpful PoEwise.

I'm not sure whether the embodiments are all unrecruitable. Neither SK nor cow mentioned being unrecruitable.

CES wasn't unrecruitable I'd bet.

Which means I was losing my mind because the SCUM AND SK were the only ones claiming my business.

----

With that and it being D6 with one cult dead I think I am a literal minority. Unless the cult is REALLY bad at picking targets:

8 alive with 3/1 violent jerks and 1-3 jerks and me with the inverse. Which means the only scenario in which I'm ahead is if the cult missed every night but AGM AND there was only 1 cult to start with.

Yea something tells me this is hilariously screwed right now.

Esp's "I can't kill anymore guyz" is probably bunk but thats for scum to deal with. If you hit scum I think its gg cult though liar face.

Unvote, Vote: Emp

[SpyreX]

Esp, since I'm pretty sure you're lying and I want this to be clear:

Your only shot at winning (which is slim) is not getting killed tonight AND not killing mafia (or me, duh). Half I can't control but the other is obvious:

Aim for the CR. Llocke is probably mafia and isn't CR. Magua is most definitely NOT mafia. Hindu I didn't think is mafia. Thor's playing like a super recruit and isn't CR. . Nexus, hrm, still is around doing nothing.

If I were you I'd be praying and probably killing Magua or Nexus.

[SpyreX]

I dont think its you. I can fathom you not being recruited by now but if you were CR you played the fake dayvig masterfully.

Hindu's JUST LYNCH ME /emo could be a no NK gambit.
Nexus is still alive and no one is shocked.

[SpyreX]

Wasn't it you that LB faked the dayvig on way back when?

I'm not losing my mind am I?

[SpyreX]

God I'm losing my mind then.

I thought there was some point where you thought you were dead and had some good ol fahsioned rage?

[SpyreX]

....

This game has went on far too long. I guess I'm wrong and you could be the CR! Huzzah!

You feel town but you oscillate enough that I dont think you're scum so there.

[SpyreX]

Actually the more I think about it I'm probably just playing pick a winner. I dont think there's a day if Esp is telling the truth where we cant not lynch scum.

Scum know who they are and who I am and I think POE means its just a shooting gallery.

However, in this world where I'm not screwed? With Locke and Thor out of contention and Esp cult means meaning the cult is really bonkers we're looking at Nexus, Hindu and you.

CES definitely looks like he tracked you nowhere.
His pushes on Hind point to him also having tracked Nexus.

So, that leaves Hindu if we're right about them.

Which means updated:

2. Locke Lamora - scum
3. Thor665 - cult recruit
9. Empking - scum
10. Magua - town or cult
11. Nexus - scum via POE
15. SpyreX - town
16. Hinduragi - cult recruiter
19. Espeonage - SK

Huh. Thats something else.

--- on a different note CES was definitely recruitable:

If he's recruited the Crone into the fold, then he could've legitimately believed benmage was mafia at the time.

Empking, what are your current reads?

[SpyreX]

....

I didn't get ninjad by thor.

Thats weird.

Minus the fact that of anyone Thor I think underwent the most transparent attitude change pointing at CULT BE HERE seeing that overlap is both good and makes me worry a lot.

[SpyreX]

Magua:

What am I missing in my breakdown?

[SpyreX]

Here's the one thing that gives me pause with Esp:

N1, one kill.
N2, one kill.
N3, one kill.
D4, one kill.
N4, one kill.
N5, two kills.

Even being generous and going "MAYBE BILBO DOUBLE BILBOD HIM" That doesn't explain N3 unless he can trade out a NK for a DK. Which could be a parallel to SaintK maybe but raises the question of why in the hell would you hamstring yourself with the "Only more kills if I kill cult guyz" (although in retrospect that did paint a pretty good "I'm not a NK choice") which is something.

Even moreso, if you had limited shots, why the christ would you waste one on LB at that point instead of lurkin 4 endgame.

So, if Esp is a SK like he says, limited shots doesn't make any sense. Its 'normal' or something else is going on.

So, lets look at the flipside: Esp as a cult recruiter. For this to work there'd have to be some form of "if you cult and fail get a NK" OR "if you cult and succeed you get a NK instead of a cult" AND "one Day-vig" (probably before lylo I'd hope).

The one thing I'm seriously throwing out because ooba-rage if it were true would be "if you cult and fail get a NK in addition to your recruit".

I'm leaving aside Esp-vig that got recruited because 1.) PR balance doesn't make sense at start with two vigs. 2.) That would put it 6/1 3.) Him being recruited and keeping his ability AND using it on LB means cult thought LB was scum (lols) and opted to not use it on me who from their standpoint is either scum or town and REGARDLESS a threat that needed to go.

Lets look at how that would have played out:

Cult fail get a NK + Dayvig:

N1, one kill. (no recruiting)
N2, one kill. (recruit attempt - successful AGM)
N3, one kill. (recruit attempt - successful Hindu/Magua/Thor (probably Thor))
D4, one kill. (Used Dayvig)
N4, one kill. (recruit attempt - failed Nightkill) (cult knows one scum)
N5, two kills.

Theoretically this fits but that still means cult got some serious juice.

Cult success means NK instead of cult + Dayvig:

N1, one kill. (no recruiting)
N2, one kill. (attempt failed)
N3, one kill. (attempt failed)
D4, one kill. (Used Dayvig)
N4, one kill (recruit successful)
N5, two kills.

This is fail because AGM WAS recruited. Unless it started out with 2. (I'll get to that).

So, there's the other side of this: the cult inability to recruit until N2. Every fiber of my being says that means there is some hijinks instead of your plain ol "cult recruits someone each night". I could see:

1.) Cult + minion
2.) Odd Night Culter + Even Night Culter
3.) X-shot culter usable whenever (vomit).

#1 makes the "NK if you're awesome" theory work with AGM being a start AND would mean only Esp + CR work. That seems like a nice thing though.
#2 could work in any scenario (NK if you're awesome see above) (NK if you suck see screwed because that means ESP cult recruiter + other Cult Recruiter + a recruit (Thor) AND it means Nexus is still -possible- CR.)
#3 I dont even know. It just means Thor and LLocke are not cult recruiters).

Now, if Esp IS SK #1 and #2 are there it just means the pool is even smaller.

I think I'm just talking around in circles now trying to parse this junk out and, ultimately, its moot.

The important thing is:

If Esp IS SK AND is telling the truth I think its a boner sandwich right now.
If Esp IS SK AND is lying about his shots there's a shot in the dark maybe:

Lynch Emp (scum -1)
2 scum going into night. 7 alive.

Esp kills Hindu
Scum kill Magua/Nexus

If one of those kills is CR AND the other isn't scum (I think all other scenarios are pretty much borked except for a perfect storm of bad cult):

1T / 1SK / 2S / 2Variable (Town/Cult)

We lynch scum (Locke probably) (scum -1)

1 scum going into night. 5 alive.

Esp kills remainder of Magua/Nexus
Scum kills Esp or Thor depending on being saucy.

3 alive:

Me / Scum / SK dancing party I pick the winner unless they do something REALLY stupid.
Me / Scum / Cult dancing party lynch scum cult draw.

....

God I do all that and I just had a revelation:

If Esp IS a SK AND is lying about his shots AND we hit the CR tomorrow and put that SpyreX is CR tomfoolery to rest then party time. End game is either a draw (if cult is good) possibly a town win (if cult is bad) OR prisoner dilemna.

At most there can be three cult today too (3 scum + me + esp is 5 unrec). So hot dogs.

The maiden will lead us to the promised land young bucks.

Of course if Esp is CR or is telling the truth pork chop sandwiches.

[SpyreX]

Can we get this party started already?

I agree with nothing Esp did making any sense BUT I still dont see how those kills + cult work if he's the recruiter in any scenario but one of the ones I listed in the before times.

[SpyreX]

I think if Esp is SK and gets shot I lose though. Unless I missed something in my ramblings. If the cult is good at this game the best I can hope for is a scum/cult/me end game and lynching cult for a draw.

[SpyreX]

The flipside is if Emp WAS cult recruiter WHY wouldn't he have jumped on the simple train of thought I have and went "yea I have full kills" all but guaranteeing he doesn't get shot?

Hell, why not do that anyways?

[SpyreX]

My third name?

What the hell are you even going on about?

Why is this day still going?

[SpyreX]

I'm seriously still behind Magua's plan as well. Although it doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things.

[SpyreX]

I seriously don't know what else you want from me today I've pretty much covered all my though processes more than once and am pretty much a minority aiming for cross kill extravaganza so I can have the PLEASURE of playing kingmaker.

If Esp is telling the whole truth I think its borked.

Soo there we go but regardless of anything else Empking has to die and dragging this out for an infinite number of days doesn't change that simple fact.

[SpyreX]

I dont see Empking lying. After you are caught it doesn't make sense.

If the cult could recruit vigs and get vigs + cult then welllll I dont even know.

I concur and realistically that group of 3 has 2 good reasons why this game is a travesty in some respects.

[SpyreX]

Ohh look at peekaboo fake hammer.

If anyone actually wants me to address that junk I will. I'd much rather actually see a hammer or a posted deadline so we actually end this day.

[SpyreX]

I'm fresh running out of ideas unless its some kind of mechanic like I conjectured which means cult aren't anywhere near full strength today OR its you.

I'm pretty sure that is the nail in the coffin though for me winning this either way.

Unvote, Vote: Locke

[SpyreX]

Because I think he's scum via PoE.

You're not scum. It can't be Locke or Thor. Its not me.

So either its you or esp via strange cult mechanics.

[SpyreX]

If I was cult recruiter AND not pants on head with my recruits I'd love to claim right now.

But no.

I'm already thinking of what series of songs and haikus I'm going to make whichever set of jerks perform tomorrow to win the game.

Since, no matter how you cut it there's at LEAST 4 non-town left (Esp-CR, Thor-Cult, Locke-scum, Nexus-scum) OR (Esp-SK, Locke-scum, Nexus-scum, Magua-CR).

The former means I'm really interested in how this setup played out.
The latter requires this Magua/Thor business to be Thor-town or serious unnecessary acting which means Magua I'm really curious on how you managed one recruit all game.

-------

I'm pretty sure there's no scenario where I and my hypothetical town friend can win now short of Esp-CR killing Nexus AND Nexus killing Esp-CR.

[SpyreX]

Sooo looks like there's wacky cult hijinks since Esp pretty much just claimed cult with Thor.

Magua here's the big issue with your train of thought especially since I'm still town:

If I am CR and Esp is a culted vig every pants on head action Esp has made makes even LESS sense. LB kill? No way in hell. The dayvig with the fake cult caveat? Impossibro. No way, no WAY would that have went down like that.

[SpyreX]

Considering the state of affairs at any point killing scum is way more vital than killing me. I get endgamed at any point and growing strength makes it harder to get lynched.

Which, of course, means Esp thought LB was scum which is insane. However, it fits more than other options.

[SpyreX]

Thor can't but Esp could. Taking us back to that original pile of madness.

Killing LB at that juncture would have absolutely been pants on head for me CR.

On a different note since saying it made me think about it more: what in the HELL was up with that caveat on that dayvig. Why caveat it if you have the option available? Needless to say I don't believe his reason on face because it makes NO sense as cult or as sk.

[SpyreX]

...

No matter what the result of Esp's role its going to make no sense somewhere along the field.

Esp is absolutely not town or mafia. Its either Cult or SK.

I'm just trying to figure it out because that might make other things click in. Mostly as a logic exercise because I'm dead in the water in most? if not all scenarios anywho.

----

Why would he lie about that if he WAS NK immune? If he was why not just goad the shot?

[SpyreX]

If he was scum shouldn't he claim cult too? God in heaven game.

Esp knowing I'm scum would be an awesome trick and pretty clearly he obviously knows I am from how those posts were.

Can we quit dickin' around and just make this happen?

[SpyreX]

Sarcasm.

Mostly at Locke the non existant trying to spin this:

But think. Scum know this. There are three people who have yet to vote. One is me (Not Scum). Either there is a bus (Stupid). Or the scumteam is Locke/Nexus or Spy/Magua. I think it is the latter.

Is IRON CLAD evidence that me and you are scum together.

[SpyreX]

How am -I- being cheeky there?

I could see Magua CR / Thor Recruit / Esp SK.
I could maaaybe see Magua CR / Nexus Recruit / Esp SK but that'd mean Thor-scum which is ehhh.
I really would doubt Magua CR / Esp Recruit + kill shenanigans
I could see Esp CR / Nexus OR Magua OR Thor recruits. With some kind of power chicanery.
I could see Nexus the lurk-ass recruiter / the above.

What I can't see is how this changes anything. If I was CR with Esp-recruit and he had ANY kills left I'd claim and pretty much win since scum HAS TO DIE TODAY.

And then has to die again tomorrow. Yippie.

So in the real world for me its just pick a winner sans everything but Bad Cult + Esp-CR kill + Scum-Esp kill and lynching scum tomorrow.

[SpyreX]

I'm almost insulted that you'd think I'm the CR and its not already won at this point.

That's a fight for much, much later after scum are dead.

[SpyreX]

Again with this.

If Esp is cult WITH me as his recruiter why in GODS NAME IS HE HURFIN AND NOT LYNCHIN'.

[SpyreX]

Nexus not immediately hammering rules Nexus out as mafia with anyone but Locke.

*gasp*

[SpyreX]

...

I expected many bad outcomes from Locke being town which still is mind boggling.

THIS I didn't expect.

Magua put on your thinking cap for a second: in a large would a three scum team be 'balanced' if they had access to additional kills? I'm puzzling through something.

I would be floored even more than Locke being town if Thor was scum.

[SpyreX]

I was CERTAIN Locke was going to be scum.

With that out of the picture either the recruiting mechanic makes no sense OR every single one of you is not town.

My thought process was as such: with Emp coming out tracking Esp and us having to bag scum if he legitimately tracked a partners kill on a night with two mafia kills....

We'd never ever lynch Esp because that should be a loss.

If Espeonage is a bulletproof SK why hold the shot? NO NK's is what has me paranoid.

[SpyreX]

If they saw esp perform a kill they would have shot esp to win?

3 scum makes things make more sense NOW but from a balance perspective against a cult in a large?

Of course part of me goes "AGM was the only 'cult' and was really a survivor" which both makes me laugh and is really doubtful.

Ok, SK throwing a vote down NOW makes even less sense.

[SpyreX]

In trying to figure out what the hell is going on here I had a moment of:

Ooba said there is a cult in this game.
AGM flipped Cult Recruit.
This game is bananas.

So, if there was no actual can-cult cult and AGM was the only one it'd be like a survivor and that made me laugh.

I doubt that's the case though and just shared it as one of the more bastard thoughts ever.

[SpyreX]

But don't focus on that part talk to me about the OTHER parts there.

[SpyreX]

Er. Which part? 3 scum doesn't make sense, no. I saw Locke's flip and figured it was game over. But that's what we have to work with.

If Espeonage doesn't bother to answer my questions, I'll vote him and move on from there.

I simply have no clue with the cult. Massclaim was D5, and Empking was even claimed before N5, so N5, N6, N7 and there is for sure 10000000% not 3 cult or, again, game would be over. There is some mechanic where eithe rthe choices are predetermined, or it's not an every Night thing. My current theory is that there was a list compiled pregame about who would be targetted every Night, and most of those people simply wound up dead. But it's just a theory, and not a particularly good one.

I can't just brush that aside. Whatever shenanigans happened last night holistically 3 scum don't make sense. We agree on that.

We're also in agreement with there not being 3 cult right now.

However, I'm missing two pieces of connect in your logic:

1.) IF Esp is not scum (probably true) but has been seen committing a kill why would scum NOT shoot him last night? 5 going into night assuming a kill is a 50/50 shot of being double screwed from scum aspect assuming >1 scum left.
2.) Why is 2 scum remaining being thrown out because of the above?

This gets me real paranoid for posts like:

WHY ARE WE NOT LYNCHING THE CONFIRMED NON-TOWN IN ESPEONAGE?

Like seriously, we have nothing else to go on. Espeonage has admitted to not being pro-town.

Please, someone explain it to my simple brain. If we lynch Espeonage, then that'll leave some combination of cult/town/mafia which could be 1/3/0 2/2/0 2/1/1 or some other variation. At least then one variable is eliminated, no?

or:

SpyreX is pretty sure town now, because I see no way that he wouldn't've won by recruiting otherwise.

If Espeonage flips any sort of cult-related role, then I think SpyreX is the last mafia. If he flips Limited-shot SK, then, lolidunno.

SOMETHING retarded is going on but I do not get gambling on throwing a mafia win right here.

...Could Esp have been mafia that got recruited and then couldn't kill mafia or some weeeird variant that way?

[SpyreX]

Bah you make a good point.

Unvote, Vote: Espeonage

[SpyreX]

Vote: Espeonage

Ohh I hope I didn't just screw this up

[SpyreX]

[SpyreX]

I'm just messing with you I'm town yo.

Interesting reaction though

[SpyreX]

I'm half expecting Nexus-CR that got cold feet and Esp to be some kind of WACKY HIJKINKS mafia.

But you should know that since I'm still pretty sure you're recruited

[SpyreX]

Nothing with where we're at makes sense.

I still am more than a little paranoid I'm the only town left which colors everything.

Well the biggest thing is the only scenario you and esp make any sense is Esp-CR and you recruit because we both know you're a recruit.

[SpyreX]

Was there a dead QT?

I'll never understand Esp's choices.