New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[DeasVail]

Does anyone remember what Muffin's results were?

[DeasVail]

I think fitz and NS were VT

[DeasVail]

I'm waiting for results, but at the moment I agree that lynching Jason is a good idea.

[DeasVail]

Wait, Alice: Did Jason claim that IaI was the second person that targeted him?

[DeasVail]

No.

I don't recall RedFF saying he would protect Muffin. DV?

I honestly don't remember

[DeasVail]

The question is: Why did scum kill muffin, considering likelihood (from their PoV) of him being watched/protected?

I'll most likely vote jason as soon as he posts.

[DeasVail]

MoI: I don't get the problem, unless you're saying Jason's town.

[DeasVail]

OH NO YOU DIDN'T

Vote: Jason

Why are people voting with him?

[DeasVail]

MoI: I'm town, so... nah.

I will explain though. It basically confirms to me that Jason is scum (well before this latest thing).

I have other thoughts which I want to share tomorrow (although they're probably nothing special). What I don't get is why people are siding with obvscum Jason against me...

Why would I express a problem with being tracked if I was going to undertake the kill?

I really don't want to be the mislynch here, so I ask that you lynch Jason.

[DeasVail]

Because tracking me is much worse than tracking someone else.

Why the recent negativity towards me?

[DeasVail]

Alice, can you help get Jason lynched?

[DeasVail]

Jon, why don't you think appeals to emotion are a towntell?

And I really feel the need to respond to Jason's case here.

Jason not claiming the second person is scummy.

Setting up a 1v1 was obviously in his best interests since he was inevitably going to be lynched today.

Jason using the investigation thing is terrible. Firstly, I didn't want to be tracked, not investigated.

Secondly, after there being such a fuss over me not wanting to be tracked, there is no way I would have carried out the team's kill.

There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be tracked as a VT. It would have been totally useless.

The only way me asking not to be tracked would make sense with me as scum, would have been as an attempt to look town and maybe even draw the tracker to me with me being ninja, or another mafia carrying out the kill. NOT with me carrying out the kill.

[DeasVail]

Please answer my question

[DeasVail]

NS: Because I'm town and if Jason is lynched, I'll be close to confirmed.

MoI: I didn't realise at the time that saying I didn't want to be tracked may make it more likely for me to be tracked, but I knew that there was no way I was going to be visiting anybody, and a no result on me would not have made a difference as to anyone's read of me. It'd be better to have the chance to actually get a result.

Please no one hammer me before expressing intent to. I have some thoughts I want to get out there, but would rather wait until after Jason's lynch.

[DeasVail]

Magna, I see nothing wrong with wanting intent to hammer. It is a small request if I'm about to be lynched I think. I may even fabricate a claim.

I'm sure there's some interaction somewhere that makes it impossible for me to be scum with Jason.

[DeasVail]

Sorry, I was feeling a bit silly (although I have been tempted to fakeclaim)

[DeasVail]

If I were to say something along the lines of "Alice is not necessarily conftown" -- how would that be received?

not all that badly

but I still think she's town.

[DeasVail]

Jason's flip doesn't exonerate DV to me.

And I still think you're scum too.

[DeasVail]

Oh, that actually changes things.

I am unlikely to have been targeted for a kill.

Possibilities:

DY is a mafia rolecop.

...

Not much else I can think of really.

Although if he is scum, he's likely to be a variant role. Can anyone think of any possiblities?

I may have to change my read.

[DeasVail]

Alice, what do you think DY's role is?

My thoughts on DY:

I really thought he was scummy pre-crash, and his scumread of me also makes me think he is scum. I don't think he would have it as town, and I really doubt he'd be so consistent with it. He's familiar with my meta and I'd expect him not to be completely wrong about me. He even says "the way DV is acting, I am so very, very down for giving him rope"- This comes after my fakeclaim comment and I think town-DY would consider me more likely town after my response to Jason's claim rather than more likely scum. He also doesn't consider my arguments.

I found Jon scummy the previous day. What do the rest of you think of him?

I don't like Havingfitz very much and he voted Jason, while presenting it as very logical, when I think considering Jason's play post-crash, and also my arguments about how I couldn't have performed the kill, Jason should have been the logical choice.

I don't like Ghostlin's vote on me either, but 93 reads as townish. He also seems too eager to distance from and hammer Jason despite his vote on me. If you preferred me as a lynch why didn't you try harder to get me lynched instead of changing as soon as a Jason-lynch looked likely?

Does anyone think that NS is appearing too helpful to be town?

[DeasVail]

*Fitz voted me

[DeasVail]

@ Deas Is "I found so and so scummy" your way of scumhunting? I'd be a hard sell if that is your best argument. My understanding of you so far is, if anyone suspects or votes you, then they are scum?

Yes it is, and usually when I focus on those that suspect me, my reads are good. Actually, there have been times where I've not suspected people who express suspicion of me and had incorrect reads as a result.

Does the bolded make me scummy, or you just sound butthurt?

To your point, you've done things that I can't imagine town-DV doing, from your erratic behavior vis-a-vis Kamrun (who, now that I know they were town, really makes it look like you were trying to white knight them pre-crash) to your "DON'T TRACK ME, BRO!!!" cries. I've simply never seen you do either such thing as town.

I am butthurt, and whenever I have been before, it's been scum that's responsible.

And now I'm more convinced of you being scum. You know my behaviour as scum is not erratic. You know that I wouldn't do those things as scum and you know that I'm town. In one of my town games, it was for erratic behaviour that you got me lynched.

Concluding your argument with "I've simply never seen you do either such thing as town" is even more scummy. Why would you not expect differences in my town play considering 1180?

Why are you so desperate to maintain suspicion of me? I thought you would've just given up by now.

[DeasVail]

MoI, why did you think it at all possible that I could have been killed N1?

[DeasVail]

um, Alice...

[DeasVail]

I have no idea what hypo-scum-DY's role is. He could be a roleblocker, though I don't know why he would pick you. He might just be plain mafia goon.

[DeasVail]

So you're saying there are two scumteams (despite there never being more than one kill a night) and that one of them actually wanted me dead?

[DeasVail]

So you do think it's plausible that DY killed/roleblocked me?

[DeasVail]

Alice: Thanks for pointing out Fitz's ridiculous (which I'm having a hard time seeing as anything but scummy right now), but why haven't you answered my question?

DY is really scummy, but I don't know what to do with him.

Top scumreads: Fitz and DY I guess.

I agree with Ghostlin about MoI and RedFF, but I am thinking it not so unlikely that both are town.

MoI's interactions with me anyway are not any different from what I'd expect from him as town and his play is the same. However, there's nothing about him that screams town to me. The most scummy thing is his claimed role. A two-shot doc seems like a strange role to have in this set-up considering no other X-shots and generally quite alternative roles. How early/late in the claiming order did MoI claim? One thing possibly in his favour and not in RedFF's if MoI claimed early is that the 2-shot doc claim is more risky than the bodyguard claim.

After looking at things, I'm seeing RedFF as probable town because he claimed to have been protecting muffin after Alice claimed not to have tracked him and without knowing that Kamrun jailkept him (unless Jason watched him and managed to communicate it). I don't see why RedFF would have claimed this as scum, and think it more likely he's town.

What I really want to know is what others think of my thoughts.

[DeasVail]

Vote: Havingfitz

I didn't like how he ultimately decided to vote Jason yesterday. He presented it as the logical choice when it wasn't.

I found his reaction to my questions to Alice really bad.

And even after saying that Jason being mafia makes me less likely, he still insists that I'm scum.

Fitz: Why are you so condescending regarding my scumhunting methods. My reads have mostly been correct so far.

[DeasVail]

sorry, I keep messing that up. I meant you voting me.

I didn't miss anything.

Well someone has been telling me what my reads are and then decides they don't actually know them... I wonder who.

[DeasVail]

Above was @Fitz by the way.

Alice, I don't really think that post indicates much, but I could be wrong. What do others think?

[DeasVail]

Alice, I'm not comfortable having that contribute to my read of him, as often town do weird things like this.

[DeasVail]

Sorry I've really confused myself. I haven't been paying enough attention.

MoI: I'm not really sure how to answer that, but thanks for pointing it out and I'm going to try harder.

Also, I'm not going to objectively say that in that kind of situation there would definitely be scum voting for me, and I wouldn't necessarily think that there would be, but I don't think that is the situation here.

As I said, Havingfitz was obviously putting thought into the situation and presented his reasoning for voting for me (I got it right this time!) as completely logical. However, it completely disregards who was more likely to be scum (Jason self-watching all the time didn't ring any alarm bells?) and I thought my arguments for me being town were pretty good too. So, it looks to me like he was trying too hard to vote me while making it look logical, despite not considering what town would naturally consider. Another thing about HavingFitz is that his reasons for thinking me scum throughout have basically boiled down to my suspicions being OMGUS, but considering that my major suspects this game have been IaI, Jason, DY, Fitz (and even he was a leaning town read at one point), this being two flipped scum and two unflipped, I don't think his reasoning makes any sense anymore, as I would've thought it assumed who I suspected was town.

I also think DY suspecting me is very wrong, but I'm not sure about him yet and will decide later. Also, I don't know how likely it is that DY and Fitz are scum together. This is because I'm thinking there's probably one scum member that didn't attack me (this could maybe be IaI, but even he "suspected" me). MoI, what do you think of this?

Jon keeps coming up as possible scum to me, mainly because he kept throwing his vote around right after crash without actually knowing anything, but no one else seems to find him scummy, and Thor was a townread.

@Everyone: What is your opinion on MoI's provided reasoning for protecting me. I think it's really strange and doesn't match up with how I'd think as a doc (especially a 2-shot doc), but I want other opinions.

Alice: Can you please answer my questions to you that you haven't answered?

@DY Your response to my post is an example of why I think you're scum.

@Alice

Thoughts on:

"After looking at things, I'm seeing RedFF as probable town because he claimed to have been protecting muffin after Alice claimed not to have tracked him and without knowing that Kamrun jailkept him (unless Jason watched him and managed to communicate it). I don't see why RedFF would have claimed this as scum, and think it more likely he's town."

please.

[DeasVail]

1) This is not true at all. I have continually given you flack for your OMGUS voting/suspecting reliance but it has not been the only reason I suspected you. From page 1 of this game I was pointing out your contradictions. You have continued to vote with little or no rationale. Your unwillingness to be tracked was scummy. If you were town it could have been phrased %u201CIf you want to waste a track on me feel free to but the track would be better served on someone else%u201D etc. Your admission that you would or had considered fakeclaiming was also extremely scummy. When does town ever fakeclaim? How%u2019s that for considering what town would naturally consider? 2) first off%u2026I do not recall IAI being a major suspect of yours. Most of his votes came in conjunction with zMuffin%u2019s investigation results on him. I would absolutely expect there to be scum on his wagon once he was outted by zMuff. Same with Jason%u2026I do not recall you going hard after Jason until he put you in a 1v1 situation at the start of yesterday. By that point he probably knew coming into the day that he was toast and by implicating you%u2026set up the 1v1 where you HAD to vote him. The question is was that claimed result of his on you to throw others off your trail or did he actually think it would spare him another night. IMO if you actually are town and he was going to try and extend his life another night he with a concocted result, he (mafia) would have been better served implicating someone who was perhaps a bit behind the scenes but not generating a lot of suspicion (myself%u2026.Thor aka jon_h61/perhaps Ns) and saving you for a potential mislynch later on. So your two votes on scum in no way absolve you. In addition to those you had the unexplained hammer on Palisade (when you switched from the equally substantial Snake wagon %u2026I believe they were both at L-1 when you switched to Palisade%u2026 WHO you had not indicated previous suspicions towards iirc) and you were pushing DY on day 1 before RedCoyote got himself modkilled. So who knows what to make of that day. And has your early game DY suspicions subsided? It would appear not but you haven%u2019t voted him since late in D2%u2026even though you keep skirting around the fringes indicating you suspect him. As for me,your vote and suspicions of me throughout the entire game%u2026aside from when you had a town lean towards me (translation%u2026when I wasn%u2019t focusing on you)%u2026has been nothing but OMGUS.

-I don't think I've voted (since RVS anyway) with little to no rationale.
-Why do you think scum would tell Alice not to track them?
-How is my admission that I considered fakeclaiming scummy at all? First, of course I considered fakeclaiming when it looked like I was going to be lynched. I obviously decided it wasn't a good idea in the end, but why do you think scum would mention it?
-I always considered IaI a leaning scum read and it got stronger with Baseline's scum read. I also did vote him a couple of times before the massclaim if that's what you care about. Regarding Jason, he was my major suspect before claiming watcher and I agreed that he should be lynched yesterday before he claimed his result, and I expressed suspicion of him before IaI was lynched, but decided IaI was more likely scum.
-Um, you do realise that the hammer on Palisade was an hour before deadline...
-I'm not saying *I suspected scum therefore I'm town*, I'm saying *I suspected scum therefore my reads are not useless OMGUS*
-My suspicion on you has been a fair bit other than OMGUS

I think your reasons for suspecting me a really bad and some of the inclusions are even worse (like the fakeclaim one).

I haven't really suspected Red all that much recently either if it makes you happy.

[DeasVail]

Unvote: Havingfitz

Vote: DarthYoshi

[DeasVail]

Hmm, it's not like he would have considered how unlikely all the other possibilities were when he mentioned there being a 4 man scumteam.

[DeasVail]

Fitz, I don't believe at all that I was a kill target.

And I know it seems unlikely, but I just feel that DY is scum!

[DeasVail]

Alice, why have you turned against me?

Also, do you have an alt?

[DeasVail]

I wrote up a post the other day, but didn't post it, I deferred to MOI's opinion of DV. A Reader's Digest version of previous post: His scum hunting tactics, him always finding anybody who mentions him as scum, him asking who he says are scum for advice, his AtEs, etc...
More specific things, he starts off calling HF and NS as Town. Later accuses both of being scum. Him trying to say Ghostlin was distancing his votes from Jason. His asking if NS is too helpful to be Town. The only thing NS had done was try to tentavely push a scum claim on Alice. In P158 he says he doesn't act erratically as scum, he only acts erratically as Town? He keeps trying to push suspicion on people with little to no evidence, scum do that.

Well obviously town do that too.... /goes and checks role PM

Where did I ask who I think is scum for advice?

Jon, which of my suspicions do you feel dissatisfied with?

Who hasn't mentioned me that I can call scum?

How is anything else you've mentioned even relevant?

[DeasVail]

Alice, I'm concerned because if DY is scum, it's unlikely he'll get lynched.

I don't know if I can, but I'll try and explain my initial reaction. Basically throughout the game, Jason has made cheeky, snide attacks at me which have irritated me greatly. So seeing his claim that he saw me kill whoever it was was quite hilarious for me. Actually I don't think that makes sense, so all I can say I guess is that I'm town and my reaction was thus from town.

[DeasVail]

Magna, I do think that Muffin would have been considered more dangerous because he could confirm VT claims as town or scum.

[DeasVail]

DY, havingfitz, Snake's slot, Jon

Can you all please change your votes?

[DeasVail]

Do you think your MoI vote is scummy?

[DeasVail]

It was a non-vanilla result on someone who claimed PR. Forget who, but I don't think it matters.

[DeasVail]

And the VTs look right.

[DeasVail]

Alice, I think you're wrong.

I'm pretty sure Muffin claimed he was a cop that could learn whether the word vanilla was in someone's role pm or not.

He said he had *not vanilla* results on IaI and MoI. IaI had claimed VT, MoI had claimed PR. IaI was confirmed as lying, but he tried to claim weak doc I think, and it was actually less easy than would be expected to get him lynched. IaI flipped mafia goon.

[DeasVail]

But Fitz has been ranting on about me and OMGUS

all

game... (all starting from an intentionally OMGUS page 1 vote on Lowell who got replaced)

Oh ok, sorry Alice, I thought you were saying mafia goons would show up as vanilla.

[DeasVail]

No, it's only havingfitz, but no one is really thinking of lynching him right now.

[DeasVail]

Will get to this a bit later.

[DeasVail]

Er... Tammy seems like town to me.

Except I'm not sure at all.

[DeasVail]

Actually I do think she is because of the whole "you should lynch me" thing. I'd imagine scum to be much more unlikely to give up.

[DeasVail]

Unvote: DY

Vote: NS

Unvote: NS

Vote: DY

Happy now Fitz?

[DeasVail]

DY: I don't really know, probably more to annoy fitz than anything else.

I want to believe you're town. I really do, but I just can't.

Sorry.

Magua: I don't think that using fitz voting me along with jason is a good towntell because I think there was a decent wagon on me before that which I'm pretty sure had Alice, Lowell, NS, maybe someone else.

I'll lynch DY, Fitz or Jon today.

[DeasVail]

Can we please lynch DY?

[DeasVail]

[DeasVail]

Ws going to say stuff about why I think DY's scum, but I've already said it:

I really thought he was scummy pre-crash, and his scumread of me also makes me think he is scum. I don't think he would have it as town, and I really doubt he'd be so consistent with it. He's familiar with my meta and I'd expect him not to be completely wrong about me. He even says "the way DV is acting, I am so very, very down for giving him rope"- This comes after my fakeclaim comment and I think town-DY would consider me more likely town after my response to Jason's claim rather than more likely scum.

To add:

I'm pretty sure DY would expect me scum to be pro-town and avoid doing stuff that could be considered scummy. This has not been me this game and I have no idea how he is sustaining his scumread on me.

[DeasVail]

Since when did anyone other than me find Jon scummy?

[DeasVail]

Vote: Jon

[DeasVail]

I wonder who DY's going to vote...

I don't really understand how I'm being considered scum either.

[DeasVail]

That was unexpected.

Also, I'm at L-1

[DeasVail]

Fitz: If I promise to be nice to you until the end of the day, will you unvote?

[DeasVail]

If I am lynched, please lynch DY. I'm pretty sure he's scum.

[DeasVail]

I'm not going to say anything that I haven't said already.

[DeasVail]

ScumScumScumScum:

DY

Possible other Scum:

Jon
HF
NS

Everyone else is some form of townread.

[DeasVail]

Why thank you. I must say the same for your vote on me. Really inspiring stuff.

[DeasVail]

Hmm, assume I'm town for a moment.

Which is better, me being lynched, or a no lynch?

[DeasVail]

I'm not sure whether to self-hammer or not to ensure a lynch.

I'll try a last "Why I'm town" spiel.

Basically I don't get lynched when I'm scum. So really, it should be very unlikely that I'll first get lynched as scum when the main reasons for people being on my wagon are not actually any good.

Hmm I actually missed Alice's case. Honestly the theory is ok, but the conclusion that I'm lazy scum is not good considering my meta. But aaanyway, DY's mysterious allusions to my incriminating interactions with Jason and Havingfitz having a problem with me developing relatively accurate reads from who does and doesn't suspect me are not what I would allow myself to get lynched for as scum.

I would try harder to prevent my lynch if I actually thought I could, but DY and Fitz have been illogically attacking me from near the start, Jon seems to suspect me for no reason and NS, well I don't know how I'd be able to convince him to get off me. Maybe I could get Alice off, but I think she's reasonably certain I'm scum and nothing I do will change that. But the key thing, I think, is that I would definitely be trying much harder to prevent my lynch if scum. I would be a lot more confident in being able to change the minds of those on my wagon and would have much more incentive to survive, but then again, I guess this could be considered an attempt to survive, so do whatever you want with it.

I so wish I was a neighbour with a fellow townie at this point, but alas, I'm not.

MoI, should I give up now, or still try to get DY lynched?

PEdit: Tammy, I don't really know. I did have a townread on Thor if it's any use to you though.

[DeasVail]

PEdit: Tammy, I don't really know. I did have a townread on Thor if it's any use to you though.

Why? I'm just not seeing town Thor/Jon

He felt like town.. I don't know.

[DeasVail]

You should be. I know I'm being blunt, but it's true.

I really just want to lynch DY, but fitz, NS, jon are decent lynches.

Also, I've only been skimming recently and may be misrepping, but did anyone else find the DY/fitz exchange of FoS really strange?

[DeasVail]

Wait, aren't we really close to deadline now?

Do I self-hammer or not?

[DeasVail]

Magna: Why would I know better than you regarding what my death will achieve?

Jon: Why didn't you just say you wanted me to self-hammer? And what mess?

[DeasVail]

But if I'm town, you voting me is against your win condition (unless you're scum).

I would expect that if you think I'm scum and want me lynched, you would much rather I self-hammer than risk a no lynch, because then you've either lynched scum or gotten rid of someone who was going to distract you from the actual scum.

What you said instead is what I'd expect from scum trying to look reasonable.

[DeasVail]

Thanks Fitz.

Can someone who has a better idea of timezones than me tell me when deadline is? Because I'm pretty sure Zach could come in and lock the thread any time now.

[DeasVail]

/last post before deadline

[DeasVail]

Wooo! Go Tammy!!!!

I probably would have gotten it wrong

I always find that my reads get worse as the game progresses!

And again, sorry DY.

[DeasVail]

And nice job modding Zach. I thought the set-up was pretty cool

[DeasVail]

"DV could be a good one to mess with. He would probably provide some entertainment freaking out..."

So true...