New York 146 Zach's Insane Mafia World (OVER)

[Alicewondering]

I'll try to recover some stuff from the cache if I can.
VOTE: Jason, but you might as well out your results of the night as well. DarthYoshi's claims is starting to look bad too.

I investigated Thor/Jon, who visited no one, which at least doesn't disprove his VT claim. Let's restart the list of claims. I'll put down the people I remember.

Spoiler: Claims

DarthYoshi: FBI Agent
Alice: Tracker
Jason: Watcher

MOI: 2 shot doc turned VT
RedFF: Bodyguard
Ghostlin: neighborizer
Kamrun: neighbor

Thor/Jon: VT
DV: VT

Snake: VT

[Alicewondering]

Spoiler: Claims

DarthYoshi: FBI Agent
Alice: Tracker
Jason: Watcher

MOI: 2 shot doc turned VT
RedFF: Bodyguard
Ghostlin: neighborizer
Kamrun: neighbor

Thor/Jon: VT
DV: VT
Havingfitz: VT
Nobody Special: VT
Snake VT

DV, what do you think of lynching Jason today?

[Alicewondering]

No.

I don't recall RedFF saying he would protect Muffin. DV?

[Alicewondering]

Wait %u2026 you chose to track the person Muffin was supposed to confirm as Vanilla last night? Please explain your thought process there.

I actually didn't remember that Muffin was supposed to confirm Thor as Vanilla XP. If I did, I would have chosen someone else.

-Still only one kill last night--was it a failed SK kill or is Yoshi lying?

I actually looked back at the flavor of the kills. What do you (or everyone else who hasn't chimed in on this) think about the two different kill flavors?

Good catch, MOI.

I know we are still waiting to hear Jason's 2nd visitor from N1.

This. I forgot about this. Jason SHOULD claim his visitor from N1. There is no reason not to after a mass claim. Just his reluctance to claim it is rather telling though.

Does anyone recall what IAI's going away letter said to the presumed other anti-town entity?

I assumed it was actually meant to mislead town rather than anything else.

Kamrun, what do you think about redFF SK?

[Alicewondering]

Regarding a potential multiball situation, here are my hypotheses for what happened in some nights:

I hypothesize that "murder" is the SK flavor, while "shot dead" is the mafia flavor. That could make sense, I suppose.

camn Vanilla Townie murdered night 1: Somehow, mafia kill was blocked, whether it be through a jailkeep or a doctor.

Kamrun, MOI

, who did you target N1?
Baseline Vanilla Townie shot dead night 2: Baseline was uber town, so he seems like a good mafia target. Being tracker, I could very well be a threat to the SK, so it is possible that SK tried to kill me, but failed because of MOI's protection that night.
ZmuffinMan (Vanilla Cop) shot dead night 3. If Red = SK, and he was JKed, then that means his kill wouldn't have gone through. Muffin was an obvious scum-target.

[Alicewondering]

[quote="In [url=http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p3918827]Tell me then – when did you send in your Night action choice? Was it pre or post-Great Crash?
[/quote]
I sent mine in twice, once pre-crash and once post-crash.

lol @ Jason's claim. Was DV the only person to visit Muffin? Who visited you N1 and N2? Stop dodging the question.

[Alicewondering]

WOW shit, sorry. I didn't have this game bookmarked.

ALSO, I just thought of this. Bookmarking would not be an issue if Jason were indeed PR. I received a PM in the morning from Zach saying that Thor had not visited anyone. Jason would have received a similar PM for who visited Muffin. It would be quite understandable of Jason had simply not gotten to the game, but there's no way he missed it because it wasn't bookmarked. I speculate that this is an excuse to cover his late entrance to the day, and I speculate that he knows that he's basically confscum, and simply wants to get DV killed with him. Keep your votes on Jason, guys.

[Alicewondering]

Hi Jon,

There was a lot of anti-Jason sentiment in the past few days. He was rather scummy from D1--I vaguely recall that he and DV had some conflict and they both believed each other to be scum. Votes started piling up on him, and it became clear that he might become the lynch target of D1, but he claimed Watcher at L-4, so we let him be. I decided to track him that night to see if he were telling the truth about his role, and found that he had visited himself. When he was asked to claim the next day, he claimed that he had visited himself, and two people had visited him. Afraid that he was scum and I would be killed before I had a chance to give town my information, I claimed tracker and confirmed Jason's story, proposing that he was scum for self-watching, among other things. DarthYoshi claimed FBI Agent on that day, as well. So we planned to have Jason watch DY, and for me to track Jason. Jason clearly agreed with this plan, but by morning, we found that he had self-watched. Again. He claimed that I was nervous scum caught by his self-watch, and that the other visitor (who had also viisted him again) must have been a doctor. Anyway, it was on D3 (I believe) that Muffin started a mass claim, yet Jason refused to claim his other visitor. And the only claimed (2-shot) doctor, MOI, did not target Jason any of the nights.

I can't recall the exact case on DV. You might have to ask other people for info on that, but it's mostly being really wishy-washy and not committing to scumreads.

[Alicewondering]

Between the two DV hits me more as scum, His appeals are mainly to emotion, while Jason tries to make his case on mechanics. My reservation is over the bookmark issue. Since neither is about to be lynched I'll place a vote on most likely scum IMHO.

VOTE: DeasVail

what do you make of Jason's question-dodging and sketchy claims, then?

And jason, just because i've confirmed you as watcher does not mean you are town-aligned.

[Alicewondering]

There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be tracked as a VT. It would have been totally useless.

This is technically false. It would have almost confirmed you as VT. That being said, I still don't want you to be lynched today.

What MOI said.

Did you change your action or was it the same both times?

Uhmmm.... Memory fails me, but I think it might have been the same. That being said, I don't recall Muffin saying he was going to investigate Thor.

Can anyone else confirm whether Muffin said he would investigate Thor?

If he did, then derp on me.

Ghostlin, I think I love you.

Also, the DV/Jason interaction reads like two actors performing a play: DV's not showing any outrage or even what I'll call a 'LOLWUT' response (which isn't necessarily a Town tell, but would be expected in this) and Jason is really smug, particularly with the above post of 'See, I caught DV! You can't lynch me now, I'm so OMG town.'

Are there other people who are reading the same thing?

Huh, now that you mention it....

NS: Because I'm town and if Jason is lynched, I'll be close to confirmed.

False again. Jason is pretty much lolwtfobvscum. Here's what I think he might be doing right now: a) If DV gets lynched today, he's trading one town for his death, b) If Jason gets lynched, he "confirms" DV as town, as most people right now seem to assume exactly one of them is scum. So your alignment will have nothing to do with Jason's flip in my mind.

I would STRONGLY advocate a Jason lynch for today. Gogogo NS and Ghostlin, what are you waiting for?

@Jon, I'm not

confirmed

town per se, but I'm pretty damn close. I can't believe HF doesn't remember that I tracked Jason twice and saw him self-watch twice.

[Alicewondering]

How does that even remotly come near confirming you town? Just because you can verify my actions?

I never said that this confirms me as town. I'm town for interactions with IAI and scumhunting. Pray tell, what do you think you're town for?

I actually never responded to this:

Also no, no second person will be named. I still believe them to be town power role of some sort, and it is someone who claimed VT. With the amount of claimed town roles, it is better YET ANOTHER ONE is not outted, at least in my eyes.

Jason, THERE IS NO FUCKING WAY A TOWN PR WOULD HAVE KEPT HIDDEN DURING A MASS CLAIM, and if by some strange chance of fate it is a town PR, and I ever find out who it is, I will auto-lynch it for being so anti-town. EVERYONE HAS CLAIMED. There is no reason to keep it hidden.

I'll ask again in case you forgot.

I know we are still waiting to hear Jason's 2nd visitor from N1.

Jason SHOULD claim his visitor from N1. There is no reason not to after a mass claim. Just his reluctance to claim it is rather telling though.

@Jason: Claim who your second result was N1 or N2 in your next post or I'm going to assume that you're confirmed scum. We've been asking for 2 in game days and you've constantly dodged the question.

Nope, MOI. All sent messages from Feb. 15 to March 9th are gone.

[Alicewondering]

HF, I think what clears me the most is having IAI sheep Kamrun with a terribad case on me D1. I don't know if you remember because you were mostly inactive D1, but IAI ended up flipping scum. There's no way that was a bus.

[Alicewondering]

I may even fabricate a claim.

What.

[Alicewondering]

It's nothing I can put my finger on right this second, and I'd have to read Alice & jason in iso together, but I could see her actions as very hard bussing.

I'll look into this later. I'd like to see night results first, though.

Damn, I must be an awesome busser for suggesting Jason lynch from D2 and accusing IAI D1.

NS, do you believe I am tracker? If so, it doesn't really make sense that scum has tracker and watcher...

I actually tracked DY, as I was getting a bit nervous over not having 2 kills, and he did indeed visit DV. So he's telling the truth about that. Hmm. I really would have liked to know Kamrun's JK target. It might have even been DV? Either way, there is still a possibility that DV/DY could be scum.

DY, I was not surprised by MOI not being dead, especially when there are a couple PRs that would be easier targets.

[Alicewondering]

Also, Zach, any word on Snake's whereabouts?

[Alicewondering]

I don't think you got jailed at all. I think that it's possible DV was protected by a JK. Sorry it's so confusing with your names.

If you were scum, you would not be an investigative role. You would be plain goon sent in for a kill. You overthought this. FBI agent could be a red herring on scum's part to make it seem like there was indeed a SK, which would potentially mislead town. That, combined with IAI's farewell letter makes me think that there is no SK.

[Alicewondering]

Actually, Alice, it DID occur to me that you could be faking Tracker. I do have to go back and read to see if that holds any water at all (which reading won't happen for a couple RL days).

So, uh, I outed Jason and pushed his lynch for funsies, and I tracked Jon/Thor accurately all while faking it? Hmmm. I don't even understand where this idea comes from =_____=

Also, MoI is almost totally scum by dint of still being alive. If there's four mafia, no SK (meaning DY is in fact a RH), then it could be Alice MoI.

I think this reasoning is wrong again! Why NK someone as good as VT when there are PRs to kill?

Also, MOI, weren't you weak doc? You targeted me on N2, which means I'm not scum if you accept MOI-town premise. Who did you target on N1?

Hmm... interesting. I could see a RedFF/DY team right now. I think that for 18 players, 4 scum is fairly likely.

Also, for Jon's sake, my suspicion from DY stems also from a couple prior events
- really, really weak breadcrumb for FBI
- a post that assumed the existence of 4 mafia, which I thought was a slip. In retrospect, it seems to be even more incriminating, given that an FBI agent would have suspected a multiball situation with 3 maf and 1 SK, rather than 4 mafia......

VOTE: DarthYoshi

[Alicewondering]

Hey, bro, do you know what MOI claimed? 2-shot doctor who has used his ability twice. He is effectively a VT. Maybe you should have paid closer attention to the thread.

I think it's just 14:4. No SK. You telling the truth about your target means nothing. You know there is a tracker in the game, so there isn't motivation to lie. But your post is strangely angry. Hmm.

[Alicewondering]

EBWODP: *and scummy AtE...

All aboard the DY wagon, guys.

[Alicewondering]

Alice, what do you think DY's role is?

I found Jon scummy the previous day. What do the rest of you think of him?

I don't like Havingfitz very much and he voted Jason, while presenting it as very logical, when I think considering Jason's play post-crash, and also my arguments about how I couldn't have performed the kill, Jason should have been the logical choice.

I don't like Ghostlin's vote on me either, but 93 reads as townish. He also seems too eager to distance from and hammer Jason despite his vote on me. If you preferred me as a lynch why didn't you try harder to get me lynched instead of changing as soon as a Jason-lynch looked likely?

Does anyone think that NS is appearing too helpful to be town?

I have no idea what hypo-scum-DY's role is. He could be a roleblocker, though I don't know why he would pick you. He might just be plain mafia goon. Who knows.

I don't think Jon is scummy. Why do you think he is?

I don't think Ghostlin is scummy either. He was clearly fine with either lynch, so why would he feel the need to push one over the other?

No, I don't think NS is appearing to helpful to be town.

----

I could see scum-NS testing the waters with his "Alice is scum" statement, and when it doesn't receive approval, he backs off appeasingly.

UNVOTE: There are a few people I don't feel great about that I need to reconsider.

Also

@Snake, you need to post buddy. Who do you think is scum?

Then please explain this quote from you:

What is there to explain? I mistakenly thought MOI was weak doc in addition to his 2-shot.
http://forum.mafiascum.net/posting.php? ... &p=3928935

So, we agree on the 14:4 setup. I've said repeatedly that I think my role is a red herring, and that 4 scum makes the most sense w/ 18 players regardless of there being an SK or not. So why again is it scummy for me to think this, but not you?

Y U NO UNDERSTAND MY WORDS.

- a post that assumed the existence of 4 mafia, which I thought was a slip. In retrospect, it seems to be even more incriminating, given that an FBI agent would have suspected a multiball situation with 3 maf and 1 SK, rather than 4 mafia......

I am talking about the pre-crash post you made, pre-claim, that suggested you had prior knowledge of the scum setup. I called you out on that during the game. In retrospect, that speculation does not make sense with your claimed role. I'm asking Camn for the recovered posts so I can point out that post to you.

camn dying N1 should be a finger in your direction because she pushed for your lynch at least as hard as I did, if not harder.

No, Camn dying was a result of her being obvtown.

[Alicewondering]

um, Alice...

Wat

[Alicewondering]

I don't see the problem, unless you are referring to the fact that you're still alive, which I have already explained that it might have happened via a jailkeep by Kamrun, which would make a redFF/DY team plausible.

[Alicewondering]

No I'm not. There are likely 2 remaining members. A redFF/DY team is plausible.

[Alicewondering]

So you do think it's plausible that DY killed/roleblocked me?

How would this be possible or even make sense?
Are you suggesting DY tried to kill you?
Are you suggesting DY tried to roleblock you?

I don't see what you are saying. If you are saying DY tried to kill you then the only reason you would still be alive is if either he or you were jailkept by Kamrun. Unless you think there is an ADDITIONAL protection PR that has not claimed. Which I do not see being the case if they were town...and if there was a scum one left...I don't see them trying to protect you or impacting DY's claimed night action capability over saaaaaaay Kamrun's or Alice's.

And if you are suggesting Kamrun did something to impact DY's night action or your survival...then you are in direct contradiction with redFF's situtation.

So please elaborate.

Why aren't you reading carefully? I believe this should be addressed to me, not DV. I hypothesized that Kamrun jailed hypo-DV-SK. I'm highly skeptical of redFF's claim to have protected Kamrun.

Everyone, top two scumreads go. Mine are DY and redFF as mentioned before.

[Alicewondering]

i have no motivation to, i know i was blocked. if you think i'm lying then it's your job to show why.

No motivation, eh?

VOTE: redFF

Ghostlin, who are your scumreads? I still think that MOI is town from his posting. If we are to go after redFF/MOI, I'd go for redFF, which I have no problem with.

[Alicewondering]

I am reading carefully Alice...I still do not understand where DV's question is coming from. The "DY killed/roleblocked me?" part specifically.

Maybe it was me saying that DY was a mafia goon or roleblocker.

[Alicewondering]

I don't actually think HF is scum. I had my doubts before, but his posting after D1 has been to my satisfaction.

[Alicewondering]

HALLELUJAH. After some hardcore Googlecaching, I have found the comment that first gave me pause about DY. http://www.mediafire.com/?wrq6ltzfp39n16z Check this kiddos, and ctrl+f "1225" or "hold up." Seems a bit inconsistent with FBI agent claim.

[Alicewondering]

Here's my thoughts on the post:
1. shows more than normal knowledge about the scumteam, and he later passes this off as speculation that an 18 player game has to have 4 scum.
2. wouldn't he have at least suspected a third party, esp given his role? there is really no hinting from him that this is true prior to his claim. i think his claim was meant to throw town into confusion given the two different kill flavors, and now he's trying to pass his claim off as a red herring.

[Alicewondering]

@Alice

- I see you vote is currently on redFF despite your push on Darth. What is your personal stance on today being a redFF versus MoI affair?

I'm fine with redFF being lynched today, but my stronger read is certainly on DY. I don't want it to be a redFF/MoI affair because you are pretty much town to me, so it leaves me no option for my lynch. I'd MUCH rather the day to be opened up.

MOI, here is the post from Darth and my reply word for word:

This still reeks of setting up future mislynches to begin with, and it is even worse with what is either a complete lack of consistency, or the audacity to call 3/4's of the scumteam before a scum has flipped.

Hold up, how did you know the scumteam has 4 people?

How the hell does this sort of post come from a claimed FBI agent?

[Alicewondering]

Did you read the post that I voted you? You're not giving me any reason to think you're town.

[Alicewondering]

Oi, DV, there are more ways to find scum than to look at who suspects you. Also, you're wrong about Jon. What else are you supposed to do? He's doing pretty well for what he's had to deal with. Questions? As in, do I think it was possible you were roleblocked/attempted NKed? I've already answered that quite clearly. I was the one to suggest those possibilities in the first place. There's another possibility that I didn't consider, though, that there's a scumdoc, which I think is unlikely given that there doesn't seem to be an SK, but it's something to keep in mind. I'm still thinking about redFF.

UNVOTE:

VOTE: DarthYoshi
Something is very off with his claim.
- weak bread crumb
- seemingly prior knowledge of setup that contradicts his professed claim
- no hint of two NKs over 4 nights
- passing off his role as a potential red herring before he has even investigated good SK suspects

I think it is highly likely that DY is scum, and at this moment, he is the only acceptable lynch target for me today. We delayed Jason's lynch for days. I will not have another obvscum slip through the cracks again.

[Alicewondering]

Alice...give DY a little slack and see what the next night or two brings. If he isn't proven legit by then town can off him then. Go for redFF or DV.

I gave Jason slack for a couple days when he should have been the lynch instead of Palisade. I'm going to keep voting my scumreads. Also, I think you and DV have very bad tunnel vision on each other.

Why would you want to lynch jon?

[Alicewondering]

I think NS is scummier than DY.

1. When did you start thinking that?
2. Why do you think he's a better lynch?

[Alicewondering]

redFF, you do realize that NS is probably not the lynch for today?

Ghostlin, I want to see more from you. I don't believe I've seen much from you recently.

[Alicewondering]

MOI, I get the feeling Snake is horribly lazy town, not scum.

[Alicewondering]

My case on you doesn't require DV to have been jailed. My case on you revolves around the fact that you hinted at knowing how many people were on the scum team, which no town should have known. And this knowledge is in direct contradiction with your claim.

[Alicewondering]

Mafia roleblock is a possibility.

DY, you still have failed to address the contradictions in your claim. Why did you say that the scumteam had 4 people as an FBI agent?

[Alicewondering]

Mafia roleblock is a possibility.

DY, you still have failed to address the contradictions in your claim. Why did you say that the scumteam had 4 people as an FBI agent?

BECAUSE NO OTHER POSSIBILITY MADE SENSE WITH AN SK.

12:5:1 is very scum-sided.

14:3:1 is very town-sided.

13:2:2:1 is a town-sided clusterfuck.

Barring some extraordinary PRs, none of those setups would likely have gotten approved for balance.

Oy.

O___O YOU DO KNOW THAT SK IS CONSIDERED SCUM TOO, just another separate one-man scumteam. I don't even understand what 13:2:2:1 is.

UNVOTE:

because your posting had previous given me misgivings that I had ignored due to the strength of the evidence of your bad claim. However, it seems that you genuinely did not define SK as scumteam. O__O

I am willing to wait till tomorrow on this. Let me think a bit on who is scum then.

[Alicewondering]

I’ll agree he’s horribly useless regardless of his alignment.

What do you think about my “Muffin dying early means scum in VT” theory?

Eh, I think it has some merit, for sure. But I think it was more of a case of Muffin being more obvtown than any other claimed PR. With Jason still unflipped, there was a chance that scum could get me mislynched. When Kamrun died, my thought was that I was less obvtown than Kamrun. Now then, let's turn to NS, who suggested early in the day that he didn't think I was necessarily obvtown. I hadn't really considered the NKs, but now, I think that this was potentially scum testing waters for my mislynch.

Fitz, I don't believe at all that I was a kill target.

And I know it seems unlikely, but I just feel that DY is scum!

Oh okay, mind explaining that?

At this point, let me explain my thought process. I'm really, really working mainly based on gut from the feeling I get from posts. I know this isn't necessarily helpful to everyone, but I've found it to be very accurate, at least when I have gut townreads.

redFF and DarthYoshi's posting have read to me as town recently. DarthYoshi's posts seem to be frustrated townie trying to convince people he's town. redFF feels town too, though I don't have that strong of an impression on him.

Who I'm currently considering now for scum is NS and DV. As I mentioned earlier, NS could have been testing his waters with an Alice mislynch. His sudden increase in activity was to be noted as well.

DV is someone I'm not so sure about, but there are several reasons that I don't think DV is necessarily town. One is for meta reasons. I've played 4 games with DV--2 scum and 2 town, and I don't see a huge difference between his town and scum play. However, there are slight, subtle differences that I picked up on D3 (I think). Long time ago, but it gave me pause, especially DY's case on DV. I vaguely remembering expressing some weak suspicion of him there, but I guess that I just dropped it for a DY case. Okay, so look at the above quote for DV. The DY lynch seems to be failing, and NS and DV are both trying to prop it up desperately.

I'm going to go on a limb and trust my instinct because I've second guessed my intuition to my later regret and chagrin.

VOTE: Nobody Special I would be willing to switch to DV if that is the general consensus.

I'm calling an NS/DV scumteam today. If NS flips scum today, please vote DV tomorrow.

[Alicewondering]

Where did I say there was no possibility that Jason was bussed? The point is not that Jason was bussed. The point is that BOTH dominant wagons yesterday were both scum. Jason was a walking deadman IMO. If he was going to be power-bussed the odds that a counter wagon would form on another Mafia member is pretty slim. Do you disagree?

I commented on this yesterday, and this is not addressed to me, but I feel like I should add in here that it is HIGHLY likely mafia took a gambit here and counterwagoned DV to make it look like their alignments were opposite. It's actually genius, especially since if DV got lynched and flipped scum, it basically guaranteed that Jason was town watcher. If Jason got flipped as scum, DV would supposedly be conf-town, though that was not really true. I think I'm going to reread how that day went to see who supported which wagon and how they did it...

[Alicewondering]

I'm not comfortable lynching someone a flipped scum JUST set up a 1v1 with..

It makes no sense, even if jason had managed to get DV lynched, jason would have died so soon it wouldn't have been worth it..

Look, here's the thing, Jason was basically conf-scum. If DV is scum, a DV flip would have cleared Jason completely in town's eyes supposedly. Probably, scum wanted to keep their watcher around, though why they would after a massclaim is beyond me. If DV isn't scum, then at least they would have gotten one townie lynched.

[Alicewondering]

People who commented or implied that Jason/DV's alignnments are no necessarily opposite: HF, redFF, DY, Ghostlin. If DV is scum, these people are probtown.

More evidence for Jason/DV partners bussing:

Also, the DV/Jason interaction reads like two actors performing a play: DV's not showing any outrage or even what I'll call a 'LOLWUT' response (which isn't necessarily a Town tell, but would be expected in this) and Jason is really smug, particularly with the above post of 'See, I caught DV! You can't lynch me now, I'm so OMG town.'

Are there other people who are reading the same thing?

Ghostlin made a good point here that seems to be accurate.

OH NO YOU DIDN'T

Vote: Jason

Why are people voting with him?

Is it just me, or does this sound fake as shit?

What I don't get is why people are siding with obvscum Jason against me...

Why would I express a problem with being tracked if I was going to undertake the kill?

I really don't want to be the mislynch here, so I ask that you lynch Jason.

Doesn't feel like townie outrage here.

Also, why would I set up a direct one on one, as scum with so many left still in the game?

knowing full well if DV flips town I am done for?

that makes no sense, even for scum to do. It basically screws me to lie about it, putting me in a 1 on 1 I can be caught out on with his flip. Towards end of game, yes makes sense.... but right now? If I am lying, I am hung tomorrow. I have nothing to gain from lying about it.

Goddamn. He knows that DV will flip scum.


---- DV SCUM:

Wait, Alice: Did Jason claim that IaI was the second person that targeted him?

This is totally wrong, and I have no idea why he would ask this. I'm so confused, and need to think more about what this means.

Magna, I see nothing wrong with wanting intent to hammer. It is a small request if I'm about to be lynched I think. I may even fabricate a claim.

I'm sure there's some interaction somewhere that makes it impossible for me to be scum with Jason.

==== NS SCUM:

jason: Can you reiterate, please, why you're wiling to sacrifice yourself to save a potential town power role?

WTF is this.

If I were to say something along the lines of "Alice is not necessarily conftown" -- how would that be received?

It's nothing I can put my finger on right this second, and I'd have to read Alice & jason in iso together, but I could see her actions as very hard bussing.

I'll look into this later. I'd like to see night results first, though.

He says later that he's going to ISO me and that he thinks I'm not town, but he backs off that immediately after it receives no support. He never ISO's me, nor MOI, whom he said he was going to.
==== MISC

There was talk of RedFF as a SK early in the game.

This is why redFF is probtown.

PEDIT:

If jason was basically conf-scum, and a dv scumflip would have cleared him in town's eyes, how come a jason scumflip has not cleared DV in town's eyes? Why would scum possibly sacrifice a member under relatively little suspicion for their watcher to live for maybe 1 more night? It makes very little sense.

Because there's a good chance Jason would have been bussing. If DV-scum flipped scum, it would have confirmed Jason for almost the rest of the game. That's why it makes sense.

[Alicewondering]

Probably leaning towards a DV vote at this point actually XP, with all the implication from Jason about a 1v1

[Alicewondering]

I don't think it would. Jason's scumflip hasn't cleared DV, why would it work the other way around?

Honestly, would you have doubted Jason's alignment when he "caught DV"?

[Alicewondering]

Not to mention his feelings about scum-DY.

[Alicewondering]

Alice, why have you turned against me?

Also, do you have an alt?

I haven't turned against you. You haven't been (strongly) town since D3. No I don't have an alt.

[Alicewondering]

EBWODP, oh. I see why you asked that question. I've only played game with you in which you were scum. Just kidding. If you count this one, my math is right though

[Alicewondering]

I don't think it would. Jason's scumflip hasn't cleared DV, why would it work the other way around?

Honestly, would you have doubted Jason's alignment when he "caught DV"?

What's the difference between that and doubting DV's alignment now?

The likelihood that the scumteam would sacrifice a player without a lot of suspicion for a player who was conf scum is low, which is why it could have been a good play for scum.

[Alicewondering]

Now given that we at likely looking at most 5 Mafians with 2 dead (IAI and Jason) and Deas a third at most that leaves 2 others to help fuel this plan you are discussing. Do you think scum could pull it off without those two both being committed to making the counterwagon viable?

Hmm. I'm thinking. I'm not entirely convinced it is a 5 person scumteam though..

[Alicewondering]

No, MOI, I remember us discussing the fact that he could turn vanilla on goons. He was a vanilla cop, not a vanilla townie cop, I'm pretty sure.

[Alicewondering]

I haven't read much to comment on. DV sure is acting weird today, though.

While I agree, this post is also weird, considering I named is as a potential lynch candidate along with you, which Jon has seconded..

[Alicewondering]

Without trying to AtE, that was just a quick'n'dirty catch-up post. I've just gotten back from two days out of town with zero computer access, and swamped is an understatement. More tomorrow.

There's just no way that DV and I are scum together.

Well, I'll just take your word for it. Make sure to catch-up with top scumreads, etc.

[Alicewondering]

MOI, I am 100% sure that Muffin returned Vanilla/Not Vanilla results, not VT results. He was a Vanilla cop, not a VT cop. DV confirms it above.

Magua, who do you think is the lynch for today?

[Alicewondering]

RRGH. I suck at reading. You voted for Snake. What I should have asked was, who else might you be willing to vote for?

[Alicewondering]

Huh, I mostly agree with you, and the Snake-SK theory is a very interesting one. Do you have any read at all on NS? Jon, I've become a little unsure about, but I mostly agree with your assessment of DY/redFF.

Assuming Snake-SK, who's mafia? Or a better question, how many people are mafia?

I'm pretty sure Muffin claimed he was a cop that could learn whether the word vanilla was in someone's role pm or not..

Which is what I said? He vanilla copped people, not VT cop. MOI is the one who says he was VT cop. But yeah, MOI, this is why you're wrong.

[Alicewondering]

Okay, there's no way scum would keep ranting on you when there's not a support for your lynch. That's not a scumtell.

Magua, I'm buying into your theory a lot more now. I scrolled through Snake's onsite postings recently and it seems that he has really had a lot of IRL issues, which I assume have taken him away from the game, as well as NAs. I'm going to take a leap here.

VOTE: SnakePlissken

because I'm pretty sure DY is town now, despite what I said earlier. I'll think about scum tomorrow.

[Alicewondering]

Welcome Tammy!

[Alicewondering]

That's awesome. I'm totally looking forward to your theory on either:
1) Who the SK is, or
2) Why camn was "murdered" and everyone else "shot".

3) Why we have a claimed FBI agent.

[Alicewondering]

(Totally wish I was it by the way. Way more awesome than trying to prove I'm not.)

You've repeated this a million times. It isn't going to make me believe you more.

SK's are not necessarily advertised in the setup.

[Alicewondering]

I'm saying that you've insisted you're not SK. You've shown much interest in "proving yourself" rather than actually reading the thread and hunting for scum. But yes, the million times is a hyperbole.

Tammy, did you even read his case on Snake being SK? Snake has basically flaked on the whole game, which would explain his not submitting NAs. This would mean that a mafia kill did not go through on N1, where Kamrun probably protected someone (I forgot), or MOI protected DV I believe.

[Alicewondering]

Yeah, that's what we're saying. If there's an SK, Snake's the only possibility for him. Look at his previous posts. He really has not been online that much. It's not a matter of incompentency--it's a matter of real world issues. Now you're just trying to WIFOM.

More votes on Tammy errybody.

[Alicewondering]

Please tell me how your theory of Snake...(me) as a serial killer fits here. I mean it's a wonderful theory and all...built up from the ground, it just doesn't fit with the evidence now does it. Sure the flavor of the kills is different, but please explain to me why there isn't more than one kill per night. Has anyone claimed guarding my VT character? NO? Oh geeze, I wonder why not. Perhaps that's because I don't have the capability to kill people at night.

Why? We already explained why. Snake flaked so he didn't submit any NKs or were blocked by doctor. This means that none of his kills went through. Why then, would we have a claimed FBI agent? (You seem unsure as to what this is. An FBI agent is an investigator that ONLY finds serial killers. Thus, it is likely that a setup with FBI agent also has an SK). I believe now that DY is town, so if he is telling the truth, I don't think that there is a chance of his role being a red herring. I have never seen that done before, and I don't think it is part of this game. So then what other explanation for the lack of SK kills is there? Magua has provided a perfectly reasonable one that pretty much solves all of my questions about the DY claim/SK.

You're not even close to getting lynched, so stop playing that card. Read the thread. If you're really town, which I doubt,

Do you think you could recall the circumstances of this claim for me?

Under pressure at L-4, Jason claims Watcher. I track him that night to see if he is telling the truth, and I find that he has watched himself. Thinking that he is scum, and afraid that I will get NKed without giving town any information, I claim (while not under pressure), pushing for a Jason lynch.

Really hate mass claims as I almost always get stuck with a role that makes me look bad or no role which also makes me look bad *see here*. Also, the roles tend to be used to figure out alignment rather than behavior which is just meh.

Maybe you're just mad Snake didn't do a better fakeclaim for you. VT shouldn't look bad unless you are suspicious.

Yeah, I feel like a Tammy lynch is good. Maybe we should just speedlynch her and ask questions tomorrow so that scum has less to work with.

[Alicewondering]

Magua, Jon is not confirmed Vanilla, but I tracked him at the start of this game, and he didn't visit anyone, which makes me think his predecessor was probably telling the truth about his VT claim.

I'm making my way through the thread right now, but seeing as how you have an FBI Agent, why don't you just have him investigate me tonight? The results will come back not a serial killer.

I thought about that, but it gives you opportunity to make an extra kill, and I'd rather not have that happen with the game winding down.

[Alicewondering]

You tracked him at the start of the game? Day one or day two?

To clarify, I meant the start of this thread. So that would have been N4.

[Alicewondering]

DY could be a different power role, like a Mafia Watcher. I DON'T KNOW, OKAY?

My brain hurts.

Like the role Jason had? You seem severely confused. Are you paying attention. What don't you believe about DY's claim?

[Alicewondering]

=____= redFF lynch is the worst idea ever, DY.

Rethinking my scumreads right now. Magua, do you still think we should lynch Tammy? It makes me uncomfortable the way NS leaped onto it, though NS's clear confusion makes me think he's town.

[Alicewondering]

Magua, because of whom Jon replaced, I'm inclined to lean towards Jon being town.

While I originally thought MOI was town, he has been pushing DY really hard and stretching in a way that I don't find townie anymore. \insert sheeping about DY's point above.

VOTE: MOI

[Alicewondering]

UNVOTE:

I just realized that it doesn't make sense for MOI to be SK.

VOTE: DeasVail

I'm derping all over the place. PLEASE JOIN ME GUYS. I'll come back and explain if people have questions, but I have to go for now.

[Alicewondering]

I don't think DV is the SK. I think it's very likely that he's scum.

Alice: How do you explain that you've come this far and not found any scum? Could it be that you're scum?

I just don't know what to do any more.

How is it that you've neither found scum nor been NKed? And that's false. I have been a proponent of a Jason lynch since D1, and particularly D2. I have also proposed IAI scum.

@Fitz: Muffin claimed last, so red wouldn't have known.

DV

, would you be down with lynching HF today?

Here's why DV is scum:
A big part of it is interaction with Jason. I speculated on D1 that there was coaching going on between the two, but under pressure, I dropped that line of reasoning. I would like to bring it back up in light of the 1v1 Jason set up yesterday. Read DV and Jason's interactions. Like Ghostlin pointed out, DV's posts are not genuinely infuriated townie.

MOI previously pointed out the issues with this post:

The question is: Why did scum kill muffin, considering likelihood (from their PoV) of him being

watched

/protected?

I'll most likely vote jason as soon as he posts.

The bold implies a town watcher. Yet, DV says that he will vote Jason as soon as he posts. At that point, Jason was pretty much conf scum after nights of anti-town action and scummy posting. Of course he would support a Jason lynch. But if DV's intentions were genuine here, he would have had no reason to think that there was an issue about muffin being watched.

OH NO YOU DIDN'T

Vote: Jason

Why are people voting with him?

Look at the first line of this. This is not the townie outrage that scooby expressed when Jason lied about his night results. This is a scum partner halfheartedly pretending to be angry. He provides no evidence and does not call for people to vote Jason. He votes Jason only after this gambit, which makes me think that the whole thing was planned. He was planning to vote Jason as soon as he posted with a 1v1 set up. Stinks of scum plan right there.

Because tracking me is much worse than tracking someone else.

Why the recent negativity towards me?

I don't understand why a supposedly townie DV would be upset at being confirmed townie by a resultless track. The reason is that he's scum.

Setting up a 1v1 was obviously in his best interests since he was inevitably going to be lynched today.

Huh. It was in his interests too because it was probably going to clear DV.

Secondly, after there being such a fuss over me not wanting to be tracked, there is no way I would have carried out the team's kill. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be tracked as a VT. It would have been totally useless.The only way me asking not to be tracked would make sense with me as scum, would have been as an attempt to look town and maybe even draw the tracker to me with me being ninja, or another mafia carrying out the kill. NOT with me carrying out the kill.

Real townies do not speculate about what would happen if they were on the scumteam. There is too much justification here about the track to be genuinely townie.

NS: Because I'm town and if Jason is lynched, I'll be close to confirmed.

This is why I think it was a scum gambit. He's setting himself as an innocent, knowing that Jason will flip scum.

but I knew that there was no way I was going to be visiting anybody

Because the other scumteam member submitted the kill.

I'm sure there's some interaction somewhere that makes it impossible for me to be scum with Jason.

Why would he say this? Because the whole thing is a setup. That is not true. I had speculated about them being buddies early on, and those suspicions were not necessarily ungrounded. His precluding the possibility of Jason and him being partners BEFORE A JASON LYNCH HAD HAPPENED worries me.

If I were to say something along the lines of "Alice is not necessarily conftown" -- how would that be received?

not all that badly

but I still think she's town.

What's the point of saying this except to sow doubt in the town?

Look at this read change within 5 posts:

Jason's flip doesn't exonerate DV to me.

And I still think you're scum too.

Oh, that actually changes things.
[cut]
I may have to change my read.

Why would he need to change his read on DY if he already thought he was scum? The only reason he would need to CHANGE a read was that he didn't even have a read on DY to start out with because he knew DY was town. Huh.

I also dont' like how he repeated asked for confirmation

So you do think it's plausible that DY killed/roleblocked me?

on whether I thought DY was scum.

And I know it seems unlikely, but I just feel that DY is scum!

Talk about fake.

There are also meta reasons for my suspicion of DV. I have seen him ask a lot of good questions, make good observations and follow up on his cases. The "idk i just have a feeling about DY, man" doesn't strike me as town DV behavior. It seems like lazy scum behavior.

[Alicewondering]

I rarely put together giant cases anymore, so if I do, you know it's srs bsns. Please, for the love of the town, lynch this guy. We need to catch scum, and I'm fairly sure he's it.

[Alicewondering]

Saw the thing about deadline being extended. I just came in to check in. Other people need to move their votes to avoid a no lynch. Vote DV. I am going home right now, so I will check in again later.

[Alicewondering]

I wonder who DY's going to vote...

I don't really understand how I'm being considered scum either.

I've never seen town DV brush of cases against him like this. DV, if you are town, you better start giving an in depth list of your reads.

Tammy, DY said something like, "You're calling out 3/4 of the scumteam," implying that he knew there were 4 people on the team.

Also, people should vote DV to avoid a no lynch.

[Alicewondering]

that was a really inspiring list of reads, DV

[Alicewondering]

Hmm, assume I'm town for a moment.

Which is better, me being lynched, or a no lynch?

The whole lynching thing hinges on me not knowing what your alignment is, and being suspicious of it. A no lynch with a town you left alive by scum wouldn't help that either.

This is you on page 34, which I believe is day two "I think a Jason lynch today would be bad. He may be a PR, or he may be scum. I wouldn't risk mislynching a potential PR when there are other scummy players in the game. If Jason continues to survive, that could be some sort of indication, but I don't think it would be a good idea to lynch him now. I stand by my D1 decision not to vote him yet. "

And I later changed my mind after I claimed.

In regards to Muffin's reads, he had a pretty good IAI scum read IIRC. He was kind of suspicious of Jason, but not enough to push a lynch very hard.

[Alicewondering]

Uhm, I hate to be doing this now, but I'm really rethinking the DV lynch in light of recent posts. rlkjlsjf;lk