Open 394 - Double Day UNLIMITED (Game Over )

[Hoopla]

Tempted to hammer izak...

[Hoopla]

He isn't that anal. izak is at L-1.

Should I hammer him, mafia-n00b?

[Hoopla]

I'm calling you out, mafia-n00b. You've been lurking Central Park for the last 5 minutes. All I need is a quick yes or no. Whatever you decide will be my final say on the matter. Izak's destiny is in your hands.

[Hoopla]

Bad answer. Bad, bad answer.

VOTE: mafia-n00b

Fuck the multi-votes, all I need is one to lynch scum.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: jackal for putting izak at L-1 without announcing it... naughty naughty!

You realize you just put Jackal on L-1 with this vote?

[Hoopla]

Really? Bad answer?

Yes, you're avoiding the question by putting it back on me. This is a classic scum tell according to my training in the mafia academy.

Take responsibility and make the decision yourself.

[Hoopla]

Yup, and I was waiting to see who noticed. Spoil my fun more, why don't you!

Blatant lie.

Important question: Who is your favourite disney character?

[Hoopla]

Favorite Disney character ... probably the horse from Tangled... but I reserve the right to come up with something better.

^Time to lynch him, everyone.

[Hoopla]

That was a question for mafia-n00b.

izak, are you happy sitting on L-1?

[Hoopla]

mafia-n00b: I absolutely am advocating a lynch right now. After a handful of games, and sometimes even less, most players have a token "town game" they can evoke as scum, and usually it's hard to tell who is faking it. The way people exude tells is when they're under pressure and the only way they're under pressure is if they fear the noose and the only way they can fear the noose is if threats are occasionally followed through. Right now, I have seen enough to lynch you.

Here's why you're scum:

izak was sitting on L-1, with both you and I off the wagon - you're capable of hammering him, as am I. I force you to make a decision on Xalxe's life, and rather than just saying "no, don't lynch him - that's why I'm not voting him", you try and turn it around on me, which is an incredibly defensive move. This reeks of inside knowledge, genuinely worried that izak could be lynched, and your answer will be in the limelight (whichever way you pick), which is why you avoid taking a stance (even though you should have said "no").

Vote on Jackal looked contrived as well - I don't believe you were genuinely testing "to see who notices it" - what's the point? It seems to me, that you tried to cherry pick a reason for a safe vote on someone and didn't realise you were making the same mistake you were criticizing Jackal for. You decided to make a false excuse because you were forced to make a quick decision to justify this contradiction - I know the truth is that you didn't realize what you were doing, and you chose to lie. This is what scum do.

Bonus: if mafia-n00b flips scum, izak and Jackal are both cleared.

[Hoopla]

Bonus: if mafia-n00b flips scum, izak and Jackal are both cleared.

To everyone else: this should be enough reason to lynch mafia-n00b even if you're not as sure as me. The benefits are immense if we're right.

Lets finish this one off.

[Hoopla]

Quicklynches are fine in moderation.

[Hoopla]

Am I town or scum?

[Hoopla]

Do you have any reads on anyone?

[Hoopla]

Kamikrazy is throwing his hat in the ring for mafia-n00b's buddy. Will scum get a nightkill??

[Hoopla]

Which is why i'm asking for clarification, I don't see how we gain more information by quick lynching someone. The amount of information we get off a flip should increase the longer we have had to discuss the day.

Our collective ability to parse and analyse data has a relatively low ceiling. Having a 25 page Day 1 increases the amount of information available, but doesn't change the amount of effort one will put into analysing the game. I posit that lengthy Day 1 merely solidify confirmation biases - we have scum caught, why dilly-dally for a week just for the sake of it? All this does is make D2 more annoying.

I'm putting my credibility on the line with this decision.

[Hoopla]

I awake to no lynch? I'm disappointed.

I think people need to read the OP from this thread.

[Hoopla]

It's your duty to make some new votes then instead of just twiddling your thumbs.

[Hoopla]

A fitting name apparently, but I think his Meta actually checks out.

How does his meta check out? In the first two pages of his scum game, he can be seen posturing and avoiding answering questions by MagnaofIllusion about his fake cop claim results. This is exactly the sort of mindset I was criticizing him for at the beginning of the game - his hovering in the middle instead of giving a definitive answer.

[Hoopla]

Kamikrazy's flipflopping on mafia-n00b seems genuine. I suspect if Voidedmafia was scum, he'd have listed his buddy in one of four random votes on page 1, but alas, no mafia-n00b vote.

Prolapsed Brain or hoopsmcgee are reasonable scum partners for mafia-n00b.

[Hoopla]

Nothing based on your post - I just have reason to clear or semi-clear everyone else. That post doesn't change my mind.

[Hoopla]

Jackal's on L-1, so you're not voting him.

Content with a Prolapsed Brain compromise lynch, so you can vote for him.

[Hoopla]

Who's ready for a flip? I am.

VOTE: Prolapsed Brain

mafia-n00b/Prolapsed Brain theory gets put to the test.

[Hoopla]

What?

[Hoopla]

Like, what do I think he will flip? Scum hopefully.

[Hoopla]

The question you're being asked is twofold:

What conclusions will you draw if prolapsed flips scum?
What conclusions will you draw if prolapsed flips town?

I didn't understand the phrasing. Alright, I'll answer when he flips.

Why do you guys need me to analyse for the sake of it now?

[Hoopla]

I'll write about yesterday's lynch soon.

Why are you voting me? Purely to get answers?

[Hoopla]

Here's a summary of my thoughts about the Prolapsed Brain lynch and the day in general:

I was initially curious about how this voting mechanic was going to play - it seemed likely that some would be overzealous with their votes, putting more people than usual in vulnerable positions. And this is exactly what happened - we saw early L-1's and even when I hammered, Jackal was also sitting on L-1 with hoopsmcgee on L-2.

I chose to hammer Prolapsed Brain because I deemed him scummier than Jackal, someone I've had a mild town read on, and someone who will likely be town if I am right about mafia-n00b being scum. In a way, this was my way of defending him - to prevent someone else hammering him, although it's possible I still would have hammered Prolapsed Brain had there been nobody else in danger - his response post attacking me instead of my claim was scummy by itself.

I'm interested in how mafia have been treating their extra votes - the natural inclination for mafia is to adapt to how townies play, and a lot of people treating the votes so loosely at the beginning of the game merely enables them to do so as well, when normally, I don't they'd do it if they were expected to justify each vote (which is normal meta). I also think mafia would be likely to vote their buddy as distancing when dumping three or more votes down on early wagons, but I don't think mafia would vote their buddy if they already had two or more votes. This is a general idea of how I'm reading the play - and with that said, here are some more direct statements of belief and a summary of what I think we should do:

- Jackal and izak aren't scum together, for the former putting the latter on L-1 on page 1.
- There are a lot of people who are unlikely to be scum with mafia-n00b that is making me doubt my read a little bit. mafia-n00b himself placed an L-1 vote on Jackal early in the game as a "reaction test", with Jackal placing an L-1 vote back on mafia-n00b later in the day. This would be adventurous and unlikely bussing, so these two aren't a pair. When mafia-n00b was on L-1 he brought Prolapsed Brain and Jackal (again) to L-1 with him, which is a typical survival-based play more likely to come from scum, but newer players tend to promote opposing wagons to save themselves regardless. izak and kondi were both keen to sit on mafia-n00b after I was pushing hard - again, these two are unlikely to be scum with him. Kamikrazy opted to play the voice of reason during my push, which is very difficult to do convincingly if it's your buddy you're protecting, which makes me believe Kami isn't scum with him either. Conversely, I don't see Kami-scum making this move against n00b-town.
- Voidedmafia and hoopsmcgee are n00b's only likely partners, which lowers his odds overall odds of being scum, but the payout we get (a lot of likely-town players if he is scum) is proportional to the risk we take in him being scum. The percentage play in this situation is lynching Voidedmafia and hoopsmcgee before n00b gets lynched - if one of them flip scum, we lynch mafia-n00b. If both are town, mafia-n00b should probably be declared town.
- I'd like to lynch one of hoopsmcgee or Voidedmafia today, and possibly the other if the first flips town (depends on what happens overnight - if I die, lynch the other). This way, we're effectively determining n00b's alignment without having to take a chance on lynching him, whilst at the same time, still getting chances of lynching scum with hoops/Voided lynches.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: hoopsmcgee

Is the better choice out of the two. Voided's back and forth with mafia-n00b seems convincing enough to lower their odds of being scum together, so I'm tentatively ruling this couple out as well. Bonus ruling out; Voidedmafia criticizing the Prolapsed wagon while it was in competition with n00b's is not something a buddy would do, as it increases n00b's chances of getting lynched. I still am slightly suspicious of Voided on play alone (his post after Prolapsed was lynched seemed weird, although I cannot say why - looks like he has inside knowledge of Prolapsed and is trying to set me up), but if he's scum, it's with someone else.

I'm not comfortable with this game developing into n00b being town, because it's hard to read the game in this light, but it's starting to make sense and means I'll have to look at others being scum.

[Hoopla]

Other things I've been thinking about:

If n00b isn't scum, I'm wary of kondi and to a lesser extent izak. The latter showed great aplomb in ignoring himself being at L-1, which is sometimes difficult to do convincingly as scum - this is offset by his eagerness to call me town, which seems weird when going into this game, he was claiming I am difficult to read. kondi also has been slightly buddying me and hasn't done much else that has impressed me.

Kami is probably town for his composed play when he could have just settled back and let the chaos take over for an easy mislynch.

I'm hoping hoopsmcgee is scum - that would solve a lot of problems. If he's town, the scumteam is within kondi/izak/Jackal/Voided (with some combinations of those players ruled out).

[Hoopla]

You think Voided is town? Or you don't think Voided is scummy, but don't think he's town either?

[Hoopla]

Also: at least one of the hoops is scum. Calling it now.

Scum should nightkill Hoopls, just ftr.

This means you think I'm town, which means the other hoops is scum.

Vote please.

[Hoopla]

Because if so, I don't buy Izak or Mafia being town enough to POE lynch Hoops.

If you don't want to indulge in a PoE lynch, can I interest you in a reckless gamble lynch?

[Hoopla]

mafia-n00b, you are a card.

[Hoopla]

I dunno which one.

[Hoopla]

Current reads, CES? Why are you wasting your time voting for Kami? If you're going to sit on a dead-end wagon, at least give us reasons why.

[Hoopla]

i don't like that strategy.

[Hoopla]

Why? So, you think I'm town?

[Hoopla]

If I'm dying tonight, you should let help me with who I want dead today.

[Hoopla]

No, today.

[Hoopla]

Come on now...

[Hoopla]

So, we lynching hoops or what?

[Hoopla]

mafia-n00b - how can you justify having three votes out in a 6 person day?

[Hoopla]

Jackal, please don't reference ongoing games. mafia-n00b's post was borderline talking about ongoing games but didn't cross it - he is mentioning you are being active elsewhere, but he is not referencing an ongoing game. Don't be petty and don't drag another ongoing game into this one.

Start playing the game and nobody will accuse you of active lurking.

[Hoopla]

No, it doesn't. Players are allowed to make comments like "Jackal's name has appeared at the bottom the Central Park forum for the last 10 minutes, he's lurking!", and "Jackal usually only posts between 5 and 11 EDT".

Stop making an issue out of nothing and play the game.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you'd've nightkilled me, right?

I don't know. It depends if I thought you'd attack me or not the next day.

I wish Jackal didn't self-hammer, it would have made it easier to tell if he was bussed. This is why I'm not ruling out CES.

Let me think...

[Hoopla]

Do you have any response to my accusations? Why were you so protective of Jackal711? Why does it appear you were working in tandem?

I was protective because I thought he was being pushed too aggressively at times, which made me think scum influence was involved. It still could be - I wouldn't be surprised if he were being bussed. I'm well aware I have an obvious connection to Jackal, particularly since I hammered someone else over him, but you don't think I'd see those connections forming if I were scum?

The fact that CES and Voided are both sucking up to me, when I could very well be a lynch target makes me extremely leery, and it should help convince you of my innocence. I wouldn't be surprised if scum is between CES and Voidedmafia. CES is decent at reading me, though, so there is a chance he is ruling me out correctly as town and is just playing well - he has read me as innocent before in a town full of Hoopla haters.

~~

When I think about it some more, there was a great opportunity for Voidedmafia to cash in on my mislynch when mafia-n00b offered to hammer when I was on L-2, and Voidedmafia shirked the chance to vote for DLG. Perhaps he is reading me correctly also. Again, I am wary when people are overconfident in town reads on me - more so than overconfidence I'm scum. I'm not sure if I see Voided's play there being a long-term play to avoid the easy mislynch then and get the town points for it.

[Hoopla]

Okay, I think we can all agree that mafia-n00b is probably town based on the way Jackal stormed out of the game based on his accusation - that would just be weird bussing.

I am probably going to vote DLG right now, and if I am targeted for the night kill, I'd like to tell mafia-n00b that I support a CES lynch tomorrow over Voidedmafia. I hope it is DLG, though - it makes sense in a lot of ways. I can clearly see the signs of DLG trying to sew Jackal and me together as a pair on the previous day, and for that, I say:

VOTE: DLG

[Hoopla]

Nice play, DLG. Well done to CES for his accuracy.

[Hoopla]

I really liked the setup - I don't get the impression it's town-sided. I think it should be given another chance. Thanks for modding, Scott.

[Hoopla]