No-Eliminate D1: A bad move?

[Captain Corporal]

Let's take your classic newbie setup, as an example.
7 town
2 scum

Let's say that the town decide to NL D1, but lynch every day from then, and scum also kills every night.
Day 2: 6 town, 2 scum. (25% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 4 town, 2 scum. (33% chance of hitting scum)

Now let's say town lynch D1:
D2: 5 town, 2 scum. (28.5% chance of hitting scum)
Day 3: 3 town, 2 scum. (40% chance of hitting scum)

As you can see, the town have a greater chance of hitting scum if they lynch anyone D1. There's some rule about that, it's in the wiki somewhere.
This is just from a statistical PoV, but lynching D1 is almost always better.



Ninja'd >_> What Zach said.

[Captain Corporal]

This is what I'm talking about, but the opposite way around and not on D1.
The wiki link I was looking for: ...and they all lived happily ever after
Numbers, Part 1 is also relevant.