The game of the year: town won!

[Hoopla]

redFF or petapan seem like better policy lynches if we're going to play that game.

VOTE: redFF

[Hoopla]

Does anyone know anything about the setup? Are they all supposed to be fairly normal roles?

[Hoopla]

Alright, lets use the first two lynches to policy lynch. I'll switch to chesskid if we get redFF afterwards.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: chesskid

[Hoopla]

Idea: split into 5 random groups of 10, focus on 1group per week, lynch the scummiest from each group for 5 lynches in 5 weeks for the first day.

Pros: makes scumhunting more focused and natural
Scum unable to lurk through early days

Cons: some groups might not have scum

I wouldcontinue doing this for every day there are multiple lynches, so until19 players remain. Every new day reshuffle groups amd split into n groups where n= number of lynches. Always choose 1 lynch from each group.

Thoughtts?

The cons are akin to the problems Nomination Mafia can suffer from. Sometimes when players are convinced that a lynch pool is all town or likely all town, the enthusiasm dies. In a game this large, losing momentum is deadly. I'm in favour pseudo-random lynching based on policy or whim for the first 5-10 deaths.

Keep discussion light until the game actually begins. If someone is super confident someone else is scum, maybe we could let them use a lynch and be put to the test.

[Hoopla]

No. We're not doing that.

[Hoopla]

Our strategy should be, everyone vote for whoever they want to lynch for whatever reason they care for. There is no point trying to organise a plan and have 50 people weigh in and agree/disagree and discuss a plan - even getting half to do that is a waste of time.

I am licking my lips at the prospect of wagon analysis with 10 lynch wagons. Making people vote from a set list when they don't want to devalues that. If scum want to try and vote in blocks to exert their influence, good luck to them, but we will pick them off. We have better chances of lynching scum, if a bunch of townies can spring from nowhere to nail an unsuspecting scumbag - it keeps scum on their toes and might force them to push other wagons harder or bus when one of them is under pressure.

[Hoopla]

I am voting RedFF because of a deal I made with you. Are you going to help me out with this wagon or not?

I am. I posted that mini wall after being ninja'd by a billion posts.

Since chesskid is out of the way;

redFF

We should probably at least wait for claims in the future though. I want to know what sort of roles are in the game.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: redFF

[Hoopla]

I think Rhinox is town - but he needs to stop pushing an unpopular idea, though. You lost. Move on and vote someone.

[Hoopla]

I am voting someone.Only a handful of 50 knee-jerk hate my idea, for all I know those are the scum who don't want any townies to dare try to create order out of the chaos they're hoping for.

You aren't. Chesskid is lynched. Now it's a new day.

I think the chaos is beneficial to town, rather than a scumbag know he can't be lynched for another four lynches. Like I said, keeps scum on their toes and means we aren't ignoring obviously scummy people just because they're not in an arbitrary group of players.

[Hoopla]

On to the next

mislynch

!

VOTE: petapan

Rhinox, I'm scum and I hate your idea.

IceGuy has slipped twice. Probably inconsequential, but we could burn on a lynch on it to be sure.

[Hoopla]

The mislynch thing was obviously sarcastic

I guess I believe it?

[Hoopla]

I'm actually legitimately suspicious of Johhog. Does anyone else feel similarly?

[Hoopla]

I'm actually legitimately suspicious of Johhog. Does anyone else feel similarly?

Why is that? I'm pretty null on him.

My interest was first piqued when he responded to the guy posting a Titanic role PM - looked too serious. It's surprising how often scum are the ones to jump on those sort of things early, because it's an easy thing to do that can't be criticised or challenged. The same with how he chose to answer a setup question I posed.

Just a vibe I'm getting. Don't really like his piggybacking on the IceGuy thing either.

[Hoopla]

I'm sorry if it offends you but yeah, I'm taking this game seriously.

Don't know what this has to do with anything...

[Hoopla]

You said that I looked "too serious". I'm saying that I'm very serious indeed.

The act of responding to an obvious joke in that manner kind of is. It's a typical sort of thing scum like to address early, because it gives the illusion of doing something.

[Hoopla]

I actually 100% agree in your analysis.

Alright, lets swap then. There can be time for policy lynches later.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Johhog

[Hoopla]

Oh snap. There must be some Mimes on that wagon.

[Hoopla]

I doubt a Mime would come in on the second half of the wagon, because at that stage it was pretty obvious the lynch was going through. If there are Mimes on the wagon, they'll be early, but innocuous votes.

I agree with syndrome that Johhog is likeliest to be a Mime.

UNVOTE:

Someone vig Johhog tonight.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Mini Librarian

I'm good with this wagon. Little bit weary about Mini Librarian being the only one to speak against the chesskid wagon - could be Mime distancing, but seems too obvious.

[Hoopla]

Do the scumteam(s) have daytalk?

[Hoopla]

I'm already more than a little irritated that this is turning into lord of the flies and chess apparently was already lynched which is stupid on every level in the universe. Dont use the bounty of lynches for lol policy lynches. Use them for real policy lynches. We dont need anarchy we need an iron fist which will win the game in the later rounds.

Chillax. We're not even policy lynching any more - pretty much all the votes out are with real reasons. No need to throw the arms up in despair.

I'm okay with using an occasional lynch on a lurker when they become obvious.

[Hoopla]

Just went through ~50 of Hoopla's games and found about 5 where she was scum and it was not stated in the OP that scum have daytalk. In none of the game did she or anyone else ask about it. So I'll assume it's a towntell for now.

As much as I like the town cred, I should say that if you want to do it right, you need to look into whether I've asked as town before. Otherwise you've just discovered a null tell. I don't really know if I have before.

[Hoopla]

Mimes probably work how they work in the "paris mafia" open game setup. They don't have a kill there. The group is probably small because the whole faction loses if 1 member dies any way other than a lynch. I wouldn't expect more than 2 or 3 mimes tops, it'd be too hard to win.

When the game gets 5 lynches to one night, then Mimes have a way better chance of being a lynch death than in the normal day/night dynamic. I expect maybe 3 but probably 4 Mimes. If there are a lot of SK/Vigs/scumteams, it's probably 3 Mimes.

[Hoopla]

Mimes are likely to try and lurk, imo. Avoid getting their name in the limelight for NK selections and also increases their chances of being lynched.

[Hoopla]

I don't know why everyone thinks the Mime team is so small and that they have it difficult - I expect more people to die during the day than at night. They might even have a factional commute or protection of some kind. I predict a Mime team of four with a factional ability, a BP-SK, two vigs and two 5 player mafia families.

Also;

VOTE: redFF

You're probably dying soon, so claim.

[Hoopla]

Alright, thanks redFF.

~~

I'm kind of getting the impression Johhog is playing up a bit to maintain his Mime image enabling to avoid being lynched, which could be a mafia tell. Would be a good play if his scumteam had a Doctor.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla Izak is scum here, furrealz.

I'm skimming a bit - did I miss something?

[Hoopla]

I was thinking about that as a strat but it's a fail one, because as soon as the mimes fail and /out he will be left for dead.

To be fair, if he is mafia, he was being scummy before it became public knowledge that there are Mimes - so I guess that doesn't add up.

[Hoopla]

I'm actually suspicious of BBMolla too. I have nothing to justify it - but I want this read to be known.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

I actually kind of agree. He can live to fight another day.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: BBMolla

[Hoopla]

SpyreX is on my scumlist now as well. I disliked his campaigning for policy lynchee rights in his opening post of the game, and the fact he is now steadfastly enforcing policy all over the place. Weird vibes.

[Hoopla]

I'm pretty sure redFF is town now, and I don't like that the fallout is powering the izak wagon on, particularly when BBMolla has coyly jumped on at the right time.

Big question marks will loom over the heads of the proponents of the izak wagon if he is lynched and flips town. This is me officially admonishing the wagon. I have decided it's a town wagon.

[Hoopla]

I'm going to be a part of the redFF policy lynch. VOTE: redFF

Uh Hoopla...

Alright, lets use the first two lynches to policy lynch. I'll switch to chesskid if we get redFF afterwards.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: chesskid

Awkward

Scum redFF doesn't claim VT in this spot. I'm 90% sure.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: Besides wagon analysis, could you give your read on izak?

No read. Basing it all on the wagon. Decently confident when I consider the personnel pushing it.

~~

~*~*SOME REDFF META*~*~:

C9++ - RedFF is put under pressure as a Goon and fakeclaims 1-shot Vig that hasn't shot yet. Buys himself some time.

Like I said - no chance that redFF fakes VT as scum in a bloodthirsty town. Outside chance of Mime making a claim that shouldn't save him, but I wager he is town.

[Hoopla]

Errrr your facts are fine and right but your conclusion reads like 1+1=watermelons.You're damn right I'm policy lynching. Not OMG META lynches - but the actual lynches we all want deep in our hearts but cant DO in a normal game for a single lynch. Once its been purged by fire then we can move in a more normal fashion but no way in hell am I deviating now.

Um, so why were you opposed to the chesskid policy lynch? He is usually toxic.

[Hoopla]

No, that's not good meta.

IceGuy really working the Mime angle.

It's good meta. Explain to me how it makes sense for redFF to claim VT as scum in this game. That game I linked shows he is at least switched on enough to understand that if he wants to live longer as scum, he fakes a role that buys him time.

[Hoopla]

You've got one example of a scum game. Where are his other scum games, and where are his town games?

I'm not trying to prove the ratio of the times he fakeclaims as scum (and his town games have nothing do with his fakeclaim ratio...)

I'm trying to prove that redFF has the mental capacity to understand that it is optimal as scum to fakeclaim a role when you're about to be lynched. I cannot see him being on the level above that and predicting that people will wifom whether he'd do that as scum. There is no way he can possibly think he could get out of jail with a VT claim and he knows it.

[Hoopla]

But it's WIFOM, Hoopla. If he knew this, he could claim VT in hopes of it being a stupid scum move and coast.

He's not on that level. Few people can pull that off purposefully.

[Hoopla]

That's a very low opinion of me

IceGuy is the one with the low opinion of you. He thinks you aren't smart enough to realise that fakeclaiming a role as scum there is the right play.

[Hoopla]

The thing about scumteams being able to talk to each other (especially if they have daytalk, but possibly even if they don't, if they had time to talk pregame) is that redFF doesn't need to have thought of it himself; one of his buddies might have suggested it. (I know that when I was scum in Mafia with the Kitties, I was pretty freely suggesting claims that would likely keep them alive to my buddies.)

Didn't save Mini Librarian and it doesn't save 90% of VT claims in other games. If anything, if he was being coached by buddies, they'd be telling him the right type of roles to claim that could buy him time. The stigma against not following through on a VT lynch is so high that it requires great deviation and effort from at least one or two players to stop it going through - and usually it doesn't happen.

It luckily did this time. Few scum would gamble on a VT claim for town points on the off chance someone derails the wagon.UNVOTE:

[Hoopla]

Oops, didn't mean to unvote then.

VOTE: BBMolla

[Hoopla]

We should be lynching on scummy play not whether we believe a claim or not.

No, believing or disbelieving a claim can be a pretty significant factor in someone's chances of being scum.

I love how so many people are trying to keep the possibility of redFF alive. Think about it for once rather than lazily dismissing it as wifom.

[Hoopla]

So many people have probably fallen behind. I'm going to shut up for a while and let others dictate terms for a while. My thoughts are known.

[Hoopla]

Unlucky Mimes. You made a good effort of it.

Lets get onto lynching BBMolla.

[Hoopla]

no, he isn't. his posts are low-effort garbage inflated with things like useless lists to mask the lack of substance, hope this helps

I agree the lists thing is garbage, but a lot of people present their reads in garbage ways. I think his attempts to foster a voting bloc is town motivated, even though I think that is also pointless right now (and not including the right people). Calling someone scum for those reasons is even lazier than you think T-Bone is being.

[Hoopla]

My concern in a big game is, there are potentially 10 scum right? Or at least close to. Or maybe even more. Which means it is easy for them to gang up on town, if they so desire.

That's why the mafia will be divided into two or three teams. I suspect two teams of 5-6. It doesn't make sense to have one giant scumteam that can bully through mislynches.

I'm opposed to the notion of a town coaltion - these only work when it's obvious to the majority of players that the people running the show are town. We barely know what sort of game this is, how many scum there are, and what type of scum there are. I don't see how we can reliably make effective enough townreads that we can bank on this early.

And Fritzler definitely shouldn't be the one running it.

[Hoopla]

Anyone who cannot see that having a coalition in this game is stupid and makes no sense is automatically disqualified from being in charge of one.

[Hoopla]

I'm starting a rival temporary coalition dedicated to the destruction of all other coalitions. Upon achievement of goal, we will promptly disband.

Accepting signups (1/10):

Hoopla

[Hoopla]

We've already lynched once without a claim. We almost lynched redFF stupidly. At least give him a chance to cobble together a rudimentary, bare-bones fakeclaim.

[Hoopla]

I'm fine with that hammer, even though Moneybags was town. So be it. He wasn't a bad lynch and I think the original impetus was town driven.

~~

I have an observation to make about the nature of the wagons so far:

I think it's looking increasingly likely there is multiple scumteams at play here due to the speed that wagons are being put through and the amount of scumhunting occurring. The natural thing to do when you are part of a small mafia family is to hunt for the other family - most mafia are able to do this hunting honestly which is makes it difficult to catch scum producing fabricated cases/tells/suspicions as they are real opinions. I suspect this is what is happening and that scum pushing through lynches is an illusion, when it's likely that there are only 5-6 player teams, which makes it incredibly unlikely that more than 1 member from a scumteam is on any given lynch wagon.

Unless we start seeing obvious patterns, I don't think wagon analysis will be very helpful until deeper in the game.

~~

My lynch list:

BBMolla
SpyreX
Peregrine (new addition)
Uberninja (new addition)

Don't really like the way the Milk lynch is shaping up - my gut tells me he is town and he is being taken advantage of. T-Bone is town also. Happy with my vote, but will swap over to SpyreX if others are interested.

[Hoopla]

BBMolla: Initially it was a gut read - I have read/skimmed a couple of other games you've been in, so it isn't a completely baseless gut read. I know you're a savvy, competent scum player, so my gut started solidifying when you continuously dump casual survival-based bluffs like this;

Btw, I absolutely gueruntee that if I get lynched the majority of the people pushing it will be scum.

Okay then lynch me.

Hey Matt, if I flip town, will you advocate your own lynch?

I'm off to a concert, feel free to lynch me, just remember my reads.

Hey if I get lynched can I pick a lynch for tomorrow?

Average players probably don't do this as scum, especially to this degree, but I think you're on the level above that where you know all of this is just hot air and people aren't actually going to listen to you, or if they do, they'll think it's town motivated. I think the fact you've hinted at it so much is making me think it's forced.

Just going on tone and behavioural tells (since my wagon analysis is taking a backseat), you've seemed overly jokey/aggressive and insincere. I also agree with Rhinox that a lot of what you've posted has been junk.

Is that enough?

[Hoopla]

I'm actually fine with being the final lynch...

Why is everyone doing this?

[Hoopla]

Why am I?

Because this game is still way more fluff than I'm equipped to deal with and I'm not even pretending to put my monocole on and get to serious business for a long, long while.

SO, if my dying actually HELPS accomplish those things sooner than its a gain.

That sounds like quitter talk to me.

[Hoopla]

Nope.

[Hoopla]

I'm starting to think that UberNinja is town.

I'm also thinking Trevor is an idiot.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: SpyreX

[Hoopla]

I'm started to get the feeling that people trying to be helpful are only doing that to not get lynched

Name names please.

[Hoopla]

...

Look at the players voting for CC. They're all individually scummier than him. Except maybe petapan and Muffin is OK.

[Hoopla]

SpyreX has four votes. We're making progress.

[Hoopla]

[Hoopla]

That'll have to wait until I'm not about to miss a bus.

SpyreX only has three votes, so there's plenty of time.

[Hoopla]

What...

Only one death? Strange.

[Hoopla]

I'm swapping back to BBMolla today.

VOTE: BBMolla

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Hoopla for this:

What...

Only one death? Strange.

You know I'm not a newbie, right? I kinda know that tell already.

[Hoopla]

I know you're not a newbie, and I know you know that tell, but knowledge of a tell does not prevent one from committing it.

So, the insatiable urge to feign surprise as scum was so great that it eclipsed my knowledge of this tell.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla can you vote T-Bone?

I don't think he's scum.

[Hoopla]

Not quite. It is more psychologically rewarding to post that as scum than as town, whether it was a surprise to you or not. And the fact that you know about the tell could mean that you feel safe committing it because you could just say, "well I know about that tell so why would I do it?"

I'd recommend getting back to that read.

[Hoopla]

At least let him claim.

[Hoopla]

So, game over then?

[Hoopla]

I don't see the point in playing a 50 player game if Mimes and Lynchers that can end it with 40 players alive.

Something must be up.

[Hoopla]

Molla, stop being stupid.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Peregrine

[Hoopla]

This is my "here's what I think's going on" post:

The advent of a single nightkill is kind of throwing me off because I was expecting multiple vigs/SK's and scumteams which we obviously don't have. Given we had a six player Mime team, perhaps it shouldn't have come as a surprise that there would be minimal nightkills. If there were four or five nightkills per night to match the daytime lynches, they would have no chance. So, how do we construct a 50 player game with only one or two NK's per night (I'm assuming that the maximum per night is two, as it would be unlucky/unlikely that multiple kills were stopped)?

Originally we thought we couldn't have a big 7-9 player scumteam, but I actually think it could work based on what we know about the game so far. There are multiple angels that exist in this setup, which can clearly stop a scum voting block powering through successive lynches. I also think if we started to notice the same group of players all being on mislynches, we'd be able to catch them. This forces scum to bus or spread out undermining their influence - they would probably need 25+ mislynches, so they can't be on all of them.

What I also know about mykonian is he likes to revive obscure oldschool roles and build setups around them. An effective way to balance a large scumteam would be to have a couple of Usurpers amongst the scum, dividing the team from within. Mykonian has used this role once before in one of his early modding enterprises, so if you're a part of a big scumteam, I'd recommend bussing.

What is also possible is a Jungle Republic type mechanic, where there is a small Werewolf faction with a nightkill and then a larger Mafia faction without a kill. I don't think mykonian would be adverse to asymmetrical scumteams.

Obviously, seeing another set of night actions play out will give us more information, but right now, I am expecting an unusual scum dynamic like Usurpers or a team without a kill.

[Hoopla]

As for the game of fake-fake of fakelands the winners of that prize are Hoopla for even pretending to believe the lynchers

Why don't I get to play along too?

[Hoopla]

Hey Spy, I'm not voting you any more, you don't have to keep OMGUS'ing me.

[Hoopla]

I refuse to watch youtube videos until those stupid fucking political ads are removed.

Fight the power, man.

[Hoopla]

why is there so many people self-voting. it is almost always against your win con. you shouldn't be able to gain town-cred by self-voting.

but the sad truth is that scums are much less likely to self-vote than town, so i think both kondi and lowman is town.

What do you think about SpyreX's continual acceptance and desire for his lynch? Same category?

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Robotnick

I'm okay with this idea. We should hit at least a few scum.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Milf

[Hoopla]

I wish there were more nightkills...

[Hoopla]

Are we still doing that lurker list thing for our lynches? Who was next?

[Hoopla]

How did the game manage to lynch Fritzler when we had a lurker-list setup easy for scum to pick off, especially when it looks like there is just one big mafia team - surely they could have enough influence to avoid this. I think bussing was involved.

Perhaps I was right about Usurpers existing. Keep bussing scumbags...

[Hoopla]

I'm suspicious of Amrun.

VOTE: Amrun

[Hoopla]

(one more)

UNVOTE:

VOTE: fritzler

weed poop

Unvote, Vote: Fritzler

Spyrex, what was the point of saying one more vote when Fritz was at L-1, but not voting? But then also voting after someone else hammered?

[Hoopla]

he wasn't at L-1, I think he just wanted hammer there

No, you were the hammer.

[Hoopla]

spyrex, why u being a h8r?

whats the connection between me and spyrex?

[Hoopla]

Oh, and Hoopla, why did you ask what the connection is between you and SpyreX, not what the connection is between you and Fritzler?

People are linking me with Spyrex.

I already know what the link is with Fritzler - he was buddying up to me.

[Hoopla]

People seem to have been very successful recently, so I'll sit back and enjoy watching for now.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: callforjudgement

[Hoopla]

Fritzler is a clever scum who set up obvious links between us. I'm only VT so at least SpyreX will have to reconsider his views when then happens.

I don't have much else to say, really. The town has been very effective in lynching scum with this aggressive bandwagoning technique, so I'm not bedrudging becoming a casualty of it. I'm surprised Amrun thinks I'm scum - she's usually a little more clued in.

[Hoopla]

Also, there's no way I'd have killed MattP if I were on the scumteam - he claimed more results than nights available. And if I were scum, I sure as hell wouldn't let half my team get lynched, either at all, or without me getting some town credit for their lynches. Just saying.

[Hoopla]

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Hoopla]

Because he says I am?

[Hoopla]

What happens when I turn up town?

[Hoopla]

To be honest, I don't really think he is scum any more, but given he has banked his whole game on a false read, I think he probably deserves to lose his influence over people like you that will do his bidding based on his reputation.

[Hoopla]

I hope mykonian has learnt his lesson.

[Hoopla]

I dont feel bad about hoopla.

it's okay, you've learnt your lesson.