Mini 1353 - Dr. Who Mafia - The End of Time (Game Over)

[Iecerint]

Vote: CMAR

[Iecerint]

The Girl in the Fireplace is probably my favorite Season Two episode.

I am waiting until page 1.5 to determine whether GreyICE is joking.

[Iecerint]

Martha was pretty boring IMO. Her only real character element was her one-sided crush on the Doctor. I was also annoyed that she was lazily paired with Mickey at the last second in keeping with Doctor Who's ongoing war against interracial couples. ^^~

Donna is easily #1 for me.

~~~

I respond to iec, ice (very comon misspelling), yerk, and iecerint.

I prefer that we avoid "ice" because it'll inevitably be confused with GreyICE.

[Iecerint]

GreyICE is apparently not joking AND from another of my favorite Tenth Doctor episodes.

Vote: Zang

[Iecerint]

No you didn't, you 'outed our cop'... that is hardly handing me anything. Thanks to you, a power role is as good as lost. That's hardly free. Not having to work for a day one lynch means having NOTHING to go on day two, that hurts us in the long run. "catching' scum before anything relevant even happens means we gain nothing from the 'caught' scum. Meaning it's not "free" scum, we paid everything 'catching scum' would have netted us to get it. [/done playing along]

While true, nothing here changes the fact that voting for Zang is the way to go given the scenario you delineate.

It's obvious you're lying given the timing of shit, but it's even more obvious since no town cop gets a guilty page one and doesn't let his scum have time to out his partners. Good day sir, I SAID GOOD DAY.

I do not understand you here. Do you think that GreyICE is town, or scum?

[Iecerint]

Given that GreyICE basically claimed Agatha Christie, and it's totally conceivable that she's in this game and investigative, and he elaborated in that fashion after I had already pointed out that I was waiting to see whether he was joking, I believe his claim. It would make no sense for him to follow-up a joke with a softclaim like that.

Page 1 daycopping is awful, but GreyICE appears to have developed a funky reputation lately, so meh, and whether the play was awful doesn't change that it found you guilty.

[Iecerint]

Day Cops are not particularly rare in Theme games in my experience, no. I don't think the timing is out of the question, either, given what I know about MoI.

I think your flavor-outguessing can work both ways, because fakeclaims/jokes are just as likely to be based on the kind of reasoning you cite. For example: Why would GreyICE go for Agatha Christie if he was making a joke (putting aside for a moment the question of why he'd go this far at all)? It's more likely that he went for such a character because it's his actual role.

Heck, I had to sit and reflect on who he meant for a good 10-20 seconds, and I like her episode enough that I used it to introduce a friend to the series once.

[Iecerint]

I guess it's possible that he has an Agatha Christie fakeclaim, and that's why he had it on his mind, but that's something to fuss over D2 or later, if ever.

[Iecerint]

Yeah, that's what I meant.

I guess I'll see your thoughts in detail later, but I would caution you against playing too much of a "How would I construct this game were I making it?" game (because it looks like your thinking may be based in that). "What is known about how this game is constructed?" is a more useful question IMO, to the extent that /outguess is useful at all.

[Iecerint]

I don't understand the logic where ZangTown->IecTown....

If GreyICE and Zang are both town, I think Jason looks bad, especially for the "But the 1/1 looks good!" point that kortul noted above (before GreyICE's retcon).

Unvote
Vote: Jason

[Iecerint]

I think T-Bone is town.

[Iecerint]

Mainly because I had the same thoughts as T-Bone going through my head when I read his first post with content.

[Iecerint]

I'm referring to his post about greenknight.

[Iecerint]

Iecerint comment is vague (don't understand whether you believe Grey or not)

I assumed it was a joke on page 1. When he kept it going on page 2+ and added additional details, I assumed it was real.

He has now clarified that it was all a gambit.

[Iecerint]

Sorry for low activity -- busy with grant-writing this weekend.

Post coming tomorrow -- I need to sit down and read some of these longer posts in more detail.

[Iecerint]

If Jason is scum, Starbuck seems like a likely scumfriend for her support of the green counterwagon while awkwardly ignoring jason altogether. I don't think she's even mentioned him at all.

Jason's comeback posts do nothing to change my view that he looks bad.

I think we should lynch Jason and then think seriously about lynching Starbuck given a Jasonscumflip.

[Iecerint]

Starbuck, you accepted my point on you, apologized/explained the failure to comment on/mention Jason...and then continued the same pattern of ignoring Jason while kinda sidelining for Greenknight....

Do you think Jason is scum, or town, or are you indifferent?

[Iecerint]

Zang is confirmed town (unless that was a gambit, too), shenanigans notwithstanding.

[Iecerint]

Also, given your read on Green and how you're handling that elsewhere, why are you null on Starbuck? O.o

[Iecerint]

You're not talking about ICE's post 90 are you Banna? His 242 suggests he wasn't claiming to have information suggesting Zang is town, i.e. daycop with innocent, otherwise zang would be more than just 'prob town'.

Ah, good catch. That's indeed what I was talking about. My bad.

@

triangle

- can you answer my question in 175? It is one of the points why i am voting T-Bone, i am reassessing it and want to make sure my understanding of his post is correct.

@

Iecrint

, after Grey made his second claim at post 90, i made a comment. You answered it with:

Iecerint comment is vague (don't understand whether you believe Grey or not)

I assumed it was a joke on page 1. When he kept it going on page 2+ and added additional details, I assumed it was real.

He has now clarified that it was all a gambit.

So what do you mean now by Zang being a confirmed town then?

In the bit you quoted I was referring to GreyICE's original claim. I had assumed that everyone was taking his reclaim at face value (at least, I had been).

[Iecerint]

@Iecrint - ok, though in my comment i was clearly asking about the second claim, since it could be read that way and your first comment back then wasn't clear too.

I think it's pretty clear that I'm talking about the first claim, because "he has since made it clear that it was all a gambit [so I believe him]" wouldn't make any sense otherwise. I'd have to simultaneously believe that he was still gambiting and believe the gambit (which is nonsensical).

I had thought you were confused about the difference between my attitude toward his claim on page 1 vs. page 2+ vs. the initial retcon. It didn't even occur to me that anyone wouldn't take the second-claim at face-value. ^^;

[Iecerint]

Greenknight, why are you still voting GreyICE?

[Iecerint]

Understood @ Starbuck.

V/LA until Monday evening

[Iecerint]

Back a day early. Catching up tomorrow.

[Iecerint]

AFAICT Kortul equivocated on Jason until GreyICE grouched about it, whereupon Kortul stopped equivocating and called Jason scum.

This may be scummy regardless of Jason's alignment (i.e., because he may have been avoiding association with a mislynch or connections to a scumfriend -- relevant because this is different from Starbuck's case, where there was indifference rather than ambivalence toward Jason until someone grouched), but I don't get enough of a bad feeling about Kortul to justify moving from Jason.

[Iecerint]

I notice that Kortul isn't discussed?

[Iecerint]

As far as I can tell.

[Iecerint]

Let's see another example of such logic. Iecrint initially voted Jason because "he looks bad". No new reasons were introduced later - he still looks bad and we should lynch him. This may be scummy regardless of Jason's alignment (i.e. he may be bussing his scummate for towncred, or pushing a mislynch without telling reasons on why Jason is scum).

The point of my verbiage is to establish a contrast between your treatment of Jason and Starbuck's treatment of Jason. Starbuck's is such that lynching her on those grounds without a Jason flip does not make logical sense. Yours is such that lynching you before Jason may make sense depending upon other factors (e.g., subjective scuminess of Jason v Kortul).

Hmm, now that i posted it, i realized that i don't know what exactly about Jason do you find scummy?

The big thing was pushing a 1/1 on Zang/GreyICE, which is a scummy thing to do if scum knows that both players are town (and I had assumed that they were both town because I took ICE's unclaim at face value). I know that you noticed this because you pointed it out as a pro-town thing that Jason did prior to GreyICE unclaiming.

IIRC, Jason claimed that he did it because he knew that ICE was lying and wanted him to unclaim (because he gambits like this a lot?), but that seems like an unnatural goal for a town player to have IMPO, severe personal animosity perhaps notwithstanding.

[Iecerint]

From what I am lead to believe. GrayICE pulls shit like this a lot.

But if you think he does it as town, why did that make you want him to 1/1 with Zang? I would think that it would make you *less* likely to make such a move, if anything.

[Iecerint]

The lady I steal internet from has turned off her wireless or something as of a few days ago, so I may have sporadic access for the next few days.

[Iecerint]

That's what i meant as " Present your thoughts about someone as a fact and paint that "fact" with scummy intentions - and lo and behold, we have a scum." You just described the next step in such reasoning - Y is now scummy regardless of X alignment, and if X becomes less popular let's lynch Y.

Some things are just plain scummy. Saying as much is not a fallacy.

Now, that we have no idea about Grey and Zang alignments, unless both of them are your town reads are your reasons for voting Jason still the same?

I still think they're both town, so it doesn't change it much. It does make it weaker, though, so I am entertaining other possibilities (e.g., ICE's past points on Kortul->Jason, which hold up even if Jason is scum).

[Iecerint]

I have never played with Tierce before, but I don't really get scumvibes.

[Iecerint]

My guess is that he hid behind Tierce and that kill killed him. The only other possibility is that he decided not to hide for whatever reason.

Whether the kill in question was a redirected/busdriven scumkill or an alternate killing mechanism (which would require the scumkill itself to have been blocked) is unclear.

I doubt GreyICE is scum. I would go so far as say that GreyICE is confirmed town. Tierce's buddying of GreyICE through most of D1 was way too blatant to be from a scumfriend. This is before you consider that the Tierce counterwagon had serious legs.

Triangle looks like the obvious scumfriend AFAICT. Refer to GreyICE's post on this very page, especially given the size of the Tierce counterwagon.

Vote: Triangle

I am vacillating on how to interpret Starbuck's acceptance of my logic on JasonScum->StarbuckScum given his town flip.

[Iecerint]

Oh. I was assuming he would be allowed to hide behind scum safely. I never remember that that's sometimes not allowed because it was allowed for me when I was a Hider.

I don't think it changes the logic about Tierce's death, though -- only that his death may have not been related to Tierce's.

Time to check out Kortul's posts....

[Iecerint]

I don't see any kind of crumb. Kortul did note lack of talk/references between Tierce and Acomist, though.

[Iecerint]

Who do you think it is?

[Iecerint]

I totally didn't see that. That's an obvious crumb, so it looks like he definitely targeted me.

I think a claim is basically inevitable given that, and I think I can imagine what happened, so I'm going to go ahead and partial claim.

I'm

The Tenth Doctor

-- no rolename. I have exactly 3 abilities:

Regeneration

is a passive ability that grants me at least one bulletproof shot. I am asking the Mod whether I would be notified if my ability came into play. I received no notice N1, but this would account for Kortul's death, presuming it only applied to me.

I'm So Sorry

kills a player who is also targeted by another player on the same night. I targeted Tierce N1, and I think it is likely that I killed her.

Well...

(my favored Tenth Doctor catchphrase, though it doesn't translate to text very well) allows me to vote.

[Iecerint]

Korlash, I am aware of your role breadloaf on page 2-3 or whichever it was.

There is no conflict; my flavor stipulates that I'm (vaguely) from toward the end of my timestream.

[Iecerint]

He just claimed NK-Immune Miller Vig.

I am not a miller. Kortul almost certainly died because I was targeted by scum N1 (no word from MoI yet). Otherwise, we have to posit other mechanisms for no scumkill.

Your broader point that NK-immune + killing mechanic skews SK is not irrational, though. I'm happy with having killed Tierce if I'm lynched today. You're probably in a decent position. Triangle looks like the scumfriend to me.

Enlighten me to my breadloaf. I give you total permission.

The place where you (explicitly?) claimed John Smith aka Human Doctor Mark One from Tierce's rolename's 2-parter.

The problem is that the Doctor would never have an ability that kills, be it by his own hand or not. So that's bullshit.

The Doctor is always getting people killed by his intervention. That's a major theme of the revived series.

My ability (probably) killed Tierce, so it isn't useless.

[Iecerint]

Word in from MoI right when I hit send, roughly.

I would NOT be told if Regeneration happened. (Kinda funky flavor, but w/e.)

Others cannot be affected by Regeneration (kill attempt failures notwithstanding).

[Iecerint]

So you believe I claimed 'john smith' aka the Doctor, but do not and did not see any sort of problem with you being 'the doctor'?...

Correct. I did do a little bit of a double-take and wonder whether we would both be town for a moment, but the fact that my flavor specifies that I was taken near the end of my time-stream eliminated doubts for me about us both existing in the game (not to mention that MoI isn't exactly incompetent and would give scum fakeclaims).

The Doctor was against killing regardless of how often it happened. HE WOULD NOT HAVE AN ABILITY TO KILL END OF STORY.

MoI disagrees with you. Don't know what else to tell you.

And what, you have an ability that kills a person IF a second person targets them as well? Is that what I'm hearing you claim? because that's impossible to be a town role and highly unlikely to be an ability by itself.

Yes, that's how it works. They have to target them on the same night, too. Conceptually, if not flavorfully, it's a nerfed vig.

[Iecerint]

Actually, come to think of it, given lack of fakeclaims (which you seem to posit even though Tierce crumbed River aggressively), were I NOT the Doctor, I would likely assume that

you

were the Doctor and claim something else.

(Pretty sure that makes Korlash pretty town, though.)

Anyway, this should make it pretty clear that I am the Doctor (or have a Doctor fakeclaim). Which should have already been obvious, to be frank, because of the site fakeclaim meta.

[Iecerint]

But NK immune vig? Nah.

I'm only one-shot bulletproof (presumably because we're only up to the 11th Doctor so far). Scum can kill me tonight, provided they targeted me last night.

I've actually played with an NK-immune vig before (in a large game), but I agree that it's rare, and vanishingly so in minis.

I accept that I probably won't survive to endgame, one way or the other, but I'm not an SK.

Korlash's post doesn't make any sense, but he's still probably town.

[Iecerint]

So yes, I believe you were given the Doctor as a safeclaim OR you think like I do that the Doctor would not be in this game... I am going with the former...

1. If the Doctor were not in this game, he would almost certainly have appeared in the pre-game scene.
2. For the corollary (i.e. fakeclaim/realclaim), the Mod /outguess game is irrelevant, because it'd be Mod-made.

(Or I made it all up. Which. I'd choose different quotes tbf. <_<)

[Iecerint]

I noticed in your claim you didn't actually give any flavor aside from 'being taken from near the end of your cycle'. Is there anything you would like to add?

Nothing really relevant, but I can paraphrase the rest for you.

I'm near the end of my timestream. I'm tired, and I've seen many people become killed since my last regeneration. I'm displeased with it, but I've seen the signs and know I will change soon. I'll protect everyone again before that.

[Iecerint]

Weirded out by Starbuck's claim. It should be obvious from the crumb GreyICE found that Kortul hid behind me.

I targeted Tierce because she was the alternawagon D1. Jason had been my main suspect D1, and my other reads were contingent upon him.

[Iecerint]

It would also explain why he was quick to dismiss kortul's death for hiding behind Tierce.

This is incorrect. I was the one who brought up that possibility. The reason why that possibility was dismissed was that GreyICE found an unambiguous Kortul crumb.

[Iecerint]

I think it's a travesty that Rose apparently does not have flavor or abilities related to her Phoenix powers.

[Iecerint]

Iece is scum. Scum meaning not town. I don't know the alignment. But trust me. He's scum. Lynch it.

The objective probability that I am town is much higher than the probability that I am mafia. I (probably) killed Tierce.

You can have legitimate SK-flavored spec because of how my role is set-up, but that's all.

With the possible exceptions of GreyICE and maybe Korlash (only because of the 3rd person POV that I could be bluffing about targeting Tierce -- but that requires a pretty implausible interpretation of my claim), I am objectively the least likely mafia member in this game.

[Iecerint]

The objective probability that I am town is much higher than the probability that I am mafia. I (probably) killed Tierce.

Blahblahblah

"Objective" means "3rd party POV."

[Iecerint]

(As in a literal 3rd party -- not a factional one.)