1371: Futurama Mafia! (Game Over!)

[Eidolon]

vote: numberQ

for having a fallacious sn.

[Eidolon]

@ mod. i will be v/la until tuesday.

so i'm gonna

unvote

because i don't want my vote on someone while i won't be here unless i'm fairly confident in their lynch. I do like the numberQ wagon right now though.

[Eidolon]

@ mod. i will be v/la until tuesday.

^meant to bold that

[Eidolon]

so we already outed two major characters? not really feeling the mass-claim for that reason. futurama has a lot of characters so it doesn't seem like it would be that hard to fake one. we're handing up mafia our power roles and i have some suspicions of people who pushed this without much reason and/or people who avoided the issue.

i'll be able to respond more tomorrow. not sure about the acomist thing yet but i don't think we should rush to a lynch.

[Eidolon]

Okay. So there were two main points of interest from yesterday that can help distinguish affiliations: the mass claim and the acomist wagon.

Mass-claim:

DBG brought it up and she was townie. (not sure why she died... possibly to dissuade people from lynching on the wagon or possible to dissuade people from lynching off the wagon. i'll have to iso her to see who she suspected.)

Venmars reaction seems okay. straightforward response.

Angrypidgeons reaction to venmar and acomist sounds townie. guess he was implying he supported a massclaim.

NumberQ - null

Rapidcanyon - typical meta response. Analytical. Null.

Blastoide- Why do you tell venmar to comment but don't comment yourself? I found this shady but then you gave a more detailed analysis later, so null. character claim has me thinking town though. To more experienced players of MS, is it common here for mafia to get major characters as fake claims?

Vijay - Ehhh. I don't really like this post. Trying hard. Slightly scummy.

Roflcopter - i like his response better. seemed easy and he also made a decision with the acomist thing to go with it.



Acomist wagon:

Angrypidgeon seems town.

Acomist is an instigator and there are probably mainly towns on his wagon.

Toonfighter- quoted acomist & angrypidgeon. were you trying to imply that angrypidgeon's sarcasm was the truth? i find it odd that you post that, not vote him, and then end up voting acomist without analysis on the situation. slightly scummy.

Venmars reaction in post 52 seems scummy. He goes against angrypidgeon without stating anything about the actual case. Could possibly know that acomist is townie and doesn't want to take a side too quickly while still sounding like he's saying something useful.

Vijay - responds on the massclaim issue but avoids acomist comments.

Cheery dog- I really don't like his 92. He's adding momentum to the wagon without offering much analysis on the situation or placing his vote.

numberQ - the mistake hammer was odd. Something seems genuine about him. the hammer was too reckless to be scum.


Sooo we've got

Possible Scum: Venmar, toonfighter, cheery dog, to a lesser extent vijay

Town: Angrypidgeon, numberq, blastoid

Undecided on rapid and roflcopter.

Vote: Venmar

[Eidolon]

Venmars reaction in post 52 seems scummy. He goes against angrypidgeon without stating anything about the actual case. Could possibly know that acomist is townie and doesn't want to take a side too quickly while still sounding like he's saying something useful.

- I'm sorry I don't understand why you're bringing up this issue NOW rather than THEN. It looks awfully like you're trying to make me look bad now that you know what Acosmist flipped rather than trying to make me look bad when his alignment was unknown. That alone is fishy because it looks like you have been waiting for his flip so you could pin me for a mild response I made... why did you mention this one thing rather than address my case that I made right before Acosmist has been hammered?

Rapidcanyon's first post of the day is bad, I don't like it when people open up with night kill speculation. It doesn't benefit town to speculate on possible powers involved in the kill. Add on the fact you haven't been helpful at all the first day, this is just a bad sign for me. I agree with what Roflcopter has said about you, and you should nameclaim next and popcorn it to someone else that you think is scum.

Why does it matter when i brought it up? The point still remains. If i remember correctly i didn't have much time when the first day was going on so i just did a quick skim. I didn't expect a hammer so quickly so i probably would have mentioned it at some point. Besides, it's useful to go over the first dp with the information on the flip. Why would you try and dissuade that?

The fact of the matter is that acomist died really early and i'm trying to figure out what happened. You put him at l-1 with rehashed arguments that don't seem to align AT ALL with your post 52.

So. what were you trying to accomplish with that post of yours? What are you trying to accomplish with this post? You are ignoring my argument to make some defensive attack on me.

@ Roflcopter, i would like to explore toonfighter & cheerydog as well, but venmar popped out as most suspicious to me.

[Eidolon]

Another question to venmar, you seem to have suspected rapidcanyon yesterday and are still going after him. why did you put acomist at l-1 using others reasoning if you had your own suspicions about rapidcanyon? Why follow the bandwagon instead of go with your own reads?

Cheery dog, what was your opinion on yesterdays wagon? Do you have any suspicions right now?

[Eidolon]

is there something quantifiable that makes venmar the most suspicious of the three, or is it gut?

Hmm, i suppose it was mainly the one comment that stuck out as particularly odd. Because it was inconsistent with the rest of his play, he seemed especially opportunistic. The fact that he goes from bashing the veracity of the case to using it for a vote doesn't sit well at all with me. my other two suspects showed similar opportunistic behaviors but to a lesser extent. gut has a bit to do with it as well as that tends to shape my reads on a whole.

what do you think of my case on him and his responses so far?

[Eidolon]

your case has merit but i think he is town

why?

[Eidolon]

Okay. So there were two main points of interest from yesterday that can help distinguish affiliations: the mass claim and the acomist wagon.

Acomist wagon:

Toonfighter- quoted acomist & angrypidgeon. were you trying to imply that angrypidgeon's sarcasm was the truth? i find it odd that you post that, not vote him, and then end up voting acomist without analysis on the situation. slightly scummy.

In my second post I was confirming my vote on AP, giving his post as a 'justification'. Afterwards, I voted Acosmist based on that post of his. I quoted it to reaffirm my vote. I don't understand why you are attacking me based on such small things -.- His overall angerness + his refusal to nameclaim made me want to vote him too.

one person who is emitting scum vibes for me today is rofl. He immediately starts attacking rc for his nightkill speculation (which is not bad on itself, and could be useful), and spends the next few posts just defending Venmar, with no evidence whatsoever. scumbuddy much?

vote: roflcopter

also, rc, you forgot to name the next claim.

I never attacked you, i merely stated my suspicions.

I didn't realize that you had your vote up for AP, so that quoting post makes a bit more sense now. But i still don't particularly like it, or the rest of your posts, as there was little justification. that quote by Acomist that you used to vote him in and of itself isn't really scummy. What was scummy about that quote?

Why do you vote for roflcopter and say he is venmars scumbuddy? Doesn't that connection rely on venmar being scum?

Venmar's claim is really townie. like..

really

town. I'm considering unvoting him for that alone but i'd rather leave it until he commits to some responses. I'm still having difficulty deciphering the validity of character claims here on MS.

PEDIT: Rofl, why is venmar town?

[Eidolon]

your case has merit but i think he is town

why?

gut, and dgb's townread on him

would you switch to a toon fighter wagon?

I'm considering it.

Does anyone have mod meta? Is that type of analysis allowed here?

I still find venmars behavior more scummy but his char. claim is compelling.

[Eidolon]

would you switch to a toon fighter wagon?

why do you ask me that without putting a vote up yourself?

unvote, vote: toonfighter

i can get down on this regardless. venmar should still answer the questions directed at him but i'll leave him alone for now.

[Eidolon]

ROFL, how am i town and ap scum bussing?

Why not you bussing, fishing out to see if the case has much traction to gauge if you should buss?

I see a decent case on TF but i wouldn't say 100%

I've seen someone do that before as town, recently - vote for the person that is accused of being the others buddy.

most of it is still pretty scummy. but how are you so sure?

[Eidolon]

I've seen someone do that before as town, recently - vote for the person that is accused of being the others buddy.

Oh Hi. Im in the thread y'know.

But the difference is that the Venmar wagon was going choo-choo at the time and the Rofl wagon doesn't really have potential.

lmao. i was talking about someone else. you know.. a completed game.

here: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p4272767

i find cd's tangion vote a little cop-outish. ap, why do you say he is town?

@mod, can we get a prod or replacement for tangion?

just did a very quick skim, will respond more later.

[Eidolon]

Okay, I'm leaning town on venmar now. His responses were town enough that i'd just prefer to drop those points for the time being.

RC, it's not necessarily that venmar has a major character. It's perfectly plausible to think that mafia has major characters as a fake claim. It was farnsworth in particular. If I had to guess one character that had to be town, it would be him, even moreso than fry. or maybe equal in towniness. But I don't want to say much else about this right now.

About the whole AP, Rofl thing... i think AP is townie.. but it's not very useful to talk about connections until after the flip.

@ Blastoide: I was the person who said that i thought numberQ was town. I perhaps should have explained myself more thoroughly. It wasn't just the hammer that made me think town. It was some of his other responses (such as asking about the wagon on him) that gave me that impression. But it was moreso a hunch than anything tangible. His point about him not being town for the hammer was odd. Especially because he's pretty much offered no more analysis than this. So i'm kind of null on him atm.

Kind of null on RC too. He's strayed cloesly to his townmeta so far, but there's a certain way that he gets when he's town that i haven't seen yet.

I still don't like Cheery Dog. I don't think AP's analysis really shows that he's town. I could see town or scum being honest in their reaction to being called useless. Scum has every reason to be honest, or at least to go with their normal reaction, in those type of situations. I don't like his vote on tangion, his justification in post 175, or his minimal analysis.

[Eidolon]

RC, it is mainly his claim. I'm by no means positive that he's town, but his response to me seemed sincere enough, (for instance his admittance to stretching the truth a bit, and his explanation for his fos on you day 1) that i'm okay with backing off of pressure for now in light of his claim.

So.. you want to lynch TF, based on other players behaviors, yet don't want to vote him because venmar is your bigger scumread? That's odd.

how did he contradict himself twice?

[Eidolon]

Edit for quoting errors.

RC, it is mainly his claim. I'm by no means positive that he's town, but his response to me seemed sincere enough, (for instance his admittance to stretching the truth a bit, and his explanation for his fos on you day 1) that i'm okay with backing off of pressure for now in light of his claim.

He never really addressed the core of either of our arguments.

So.. you want to lynch TF, based on other players behaviors, yet don't want to vote him because venmar is your bigger scumread? That's odd.

Something seems off to me. Just when we were about to pressure Venmar, a counterwagon for TF pops out of nowhere and you jump onto it despite your first pressure target not giving sufficient answers to your and my questions.

how did he contradict himself twice?

1) He disagreed with DGB initially but later voted Acosmist for reasons that DGB mentioned.

2) He chastised AP for making a case out of nothing but later used that case himself to vote against Acosmist.

- What about his character claim is so compelling?

- If he admits to stretching the truth, that means he is town? I don't understand...

So, yeah, part of me wants to vote TF but the fact that pressure is dissipating on Venmar for no reason smells funny and makes me want to stick with Venmar.

[/quote]

oh, i thought you meant that his responses had contradictions.

Anyways, i unvoted for venmar before he even responded. TF was my second scumread. Professor farnswarth is the brains of the operation on the protagonist-side of the show. I'm not going to say anymore on why i think his character is town. i'd rather hold off on pressuring him any further. Why do you single me out for switching to TF and not AP?

[Eidolon]

cheery dog's vote for tangion is awful. why vote the obviously inactive (not lurking, completely inactive) guy over taking a position on either of the leading wagons?

Sorry but why are we voting Toon Fighter because you think you've found his buddies? What makes it more likely that it's bussing and not buddying?

this is a misrepresentation of the votes for toon fighter. nobody's vote (as far as i can tell) have anything to do with "finding his buddies," they have to do with tf being scum. the idea of someone being his buddy is a conclusion drawn

from

knowing tf is scum, not a factor driving that conclusion.

because he is still lurking, he had come onto the site since the start of day 2 and hasn't posted.

The accusations that have been flying around look to me more that you've found someone else scummy and because you're voting TF, you've found that they must be buddies.

It would also be that I don't see TF being this obv100%scum from his 4 posts he has made.

As for the bolded quote, this is not what you initially said.

First post: You are voting toonfighter because you think you've spotted his scumbuddy.
Second post: you think that another player being scummy makes them TF's buddy.

Those aren't the same thing. Please explain more in depth what you mean and why you came to that conclusion.

I agree that the first is bad in theory but it is not what is happening in this situation. Actually, part of the case on TF is that he did exactly that.

The second isn't inherently wrong, but it it is also not what is happening.

What has been happening is that a case on TF has developed, and some people are throwing around accusations about buddies based off of responses about TF. The scumminess that they suspect is mainly based on TF's alignment, and not (wholly) independent of it.

Your interpretation of this seems twisted and contrived.

Please tell me, who exactly is suspecting people for the wrong reasons, and why?

[Eidolon]

Also, cheery dog, do you think that tangion is scum? do you think that your vote will get him to come back and talk? who are your suspects among the active players?

RC, the fact that mafia are potentially given fake claims is not the point. if a character fits much more into the town category than the potential fake claim category, (which, he's honestly one of the only characters in the show that does) i see no reason to go after them immediately, before some flips have given us more information into the game. i see no need to lynch venmar today unless there is something very overwhelmingly scum about him, which there certainly hasn't been.

[Eidolon]

i never "alluded" to having any info.

you are just pulling shit out of your ass to try to make me look bad (because i mentioned you missing something in your town play, huh?)

i'm simply saying that venmars character is convincingly townie and if you are too dense to understand why then i'm sorry but i'm not going to ruin that for your benefit.

I know the case on him. i made it. theres a time when you give it up if something tells you otherwise.

[Eidolon]

Eidolon should name claim.

Kif kroker

[Eidolon]

sigh. i actually am leaning slight town on rc but it's kinda hard to tell right now.

as town he is usually two things: very stubborn, and very analytical.

his density isn't a scum tell for him, imo. but his logic is lacking a bit compared to normal which might allude to scum motivation.

RC, you don't see the inherent flaw in telling AP to vote for the busser rather than the bussee?

[Eidolon]

Angry, your vote simply makes no sense from a town perspective. You initially say that you find Rofl suspicious, but when it seems like Rofl is actually a viable lynch candidate, you suddenly find him town and go towards his side. As scum though it makes perfect sense.

I don't think TF is scum at this point. Angry's and Rofl's reactions make no sense if he was scum unless all 3 are scum which is unlikely.

Right now, I am still going to go with Rofl. Case later. We should lynch him today.

You know rc, opinions can change. especially when someone does something scummy.

you have been acting scummy even though i'm slight town leaning on you right now.

How does angry & rofls reaction mean that TF is not scum?

[Eidolon]

1. OMGUSing everyone who calls you scummy.

2. ignoring logic to push people into actions (telling people to vote the busser rather than the busse)

3. pushing info about characters and roles to be outed.

These actions are all scummy. I just happen to know that they are normal for you as town, so i don't find you particularly scummy.

"If you think Rofl is bussing, let's lynch rofl"

"i don't think bussee is scum"

Rather than to push me to do something that is inherently flawed from MY perspective, why don't you tell me why TF is town and why ROFL is scum, independently of whether or not someone is bussing.

Because if i think someone might be bussing, which i haven't even said yet, as it's more of a very SLIGHT suspicion than anything certain, there is no logical reason to vote the busser than the busse. One is dependent on the other being scum.

[Eidolon]

Also, question for Eidolon, did anything negative happen to you last night?

Not that i am aware of. Let me ask the mod something first. I'd suggest NOT mentioning who targeted me.

Anyways, lmao, how do i ignore your questions? I. wasnt. online. for. the. last. 12. hours.

I had to go immediately after i answered you because i got a movie to watch w/ my bf. (the devil inside - decent horror movie. doesn't live up to my high expectations since watching paranormal activities and insidious)

Anyways. Here's why TF is scum: look at his reaction to pressure!!!! He didn't say ANYTHING except give his character claim. If you weren't suspicious of him before, doesn't that kind of ring a bell? I'm sorry but there is no way that that is town. It's someone who is mad he got bussed by a partner most likely and is not saying anymore to dodge being connected to someone else.

And here's why ROFL might be town: he softclaimed a confirmable role. Him "bussing" TF is dependent on TF flipping scum. Unless he flips, theres never a way to be 100% sure that he's scum. If TF flips, and his role doesn't come through, i'll look at him.

Now, tell me again why we should lynch ROFL over TF? How exactly am i playing stupid? Because I'm not following your every move? WTF? your moves are inherently flawed and you haven't showed me why rofl is scum. Your only reasoning has been "responses to the tf situation"

and then you go to say it might be AP... and then you say it's ME AND AP YET ARE STILL PUSHING A ROFL LYNCH. WTF??

You see how this doesn't line up.

I wouldn't believe you except for the claim.

I suppose if you can confirm who visited me (later on) it will be okay. But i don't see how bender is a watcher. do you have role justification?

[Eidolon]

Booo. their lack of music and the build up and the still cameras are awesome! especially 2 and 3.

I've seen it at my old site though i realize that it's not something common. i'd assume less common here than at my old site because that was more of a role madness type of place.

It's called lookout there, which makes more sense with bender being a theif...

[Eidolon]

Venmar, thoughts on the RC situation?

[Eidolon]

Are you seriously stupid cheerydog? There are 4 scummy people who parked their voted on toonfighter for ABSOLUTELY no reason.

Eidolon for instance asks me why I thought Venmar was scummier. I explain it to her and she does NOTHING. She doesn't switch her vote. She just parks it on TF for absolutely no reason despite the case on Venmar being infinitely stronger. She isn't dense or stupid as town.

She is scum. She, Cheerydog, and Venmar.

LOL. so far you have called me, cheerydog, venmar, rofl, and AP scum.

which ones are it rc?

That is pretty much everyone who has been posting and about half of the playerlist.

When half of the game disagrees with you, maybe it means you need to reevaluate, rather than them being scum. Who do you want to lynch today and what is your reasoning on them?

PEDIT: venmar i pretty much agree with you on rc.

[Eidolon]

Re TF thing: there were other reasons but i already posted them. I'm just saying that if you hadn't considered it before, there is a big clue.

RE Venmar: i explained about 5 times why i laid off on venmar. It wasn't a "Vague banality". Sorry if you perceive it that way but i'm not going to explain myself again.

Re "what situation": the whole situation of the pressure on you and your pressure on others. I already said you often play like this so a lot of those behaviors aren't a scum tell for you. But some of your play has been opportunistic and unusual for you:

The fact that you haven't made a case on who you have been going after, and that you gave in to a TF vote even though you obviously don't believe in it, has me suspicious. It's like you just got angry and then gave up. where has the analysis gone?

Yes, i know you made a case for venmar, but in the last 4 or 5 pages or so you've been going after ROFL with no reasoning, and haven't given reasoning on the other players that you supposedly suspect, besides saying that they are "stupid morons"

[Eidolon]

Sigh, that response is so negative i don't even feel like responding. i will later i guess.

But, again, seems like you are just giving up for no reason, which isn't town you at all. (ie the i'd rather lynch him than me) I've seen you handle more heat than this before and you don't give in like that....

I think cheery dog is scummy too though.

Re the TF thing: the clue was what i already explained about his response.

Let's go another direction right now. Do you think TF is town? Why?

I'm gonna

unvote

until i can reread and try to make more clarity of everything.

[Eidolon]

I like the case on cheery. still reading. will probably be able to post some better analysis later tonight.

rofl, what is wrong with the cheery case?

[Eidolon]

Bachelor #1

Cheery, if Rapid flips town, how would that change your reads one me, Eidolon, rofl, and TF?

Your scumpoints would probably go up, for getting him to paraphase his role and also you still haven't talked about #173 like you were going to
Eidolon would increase in towniness for saying the rapid has acted like this as town before.

rofl would still be town, as his posts still seem town motivated to me, they just weren't seeming as town motivated when he was one of my active player suspicions.

TF hasn't interacted with rapid yet, so I'm unsure about him, probably going to stay the same.

Pedit: and Rapid's case on me isn't the exact same thing except reversed?

what does this mean? who are you suspicious of and why?

[Eidolon]

i see some problems in rc's case after reading it more carefully though. i'm still leaning town on him and scum on cheery though, mainly due to cheerys reactions. i don't see rc bussing cheery at this point.

[Eidolon]

RC, you really annoy me with how you say i'm scum in like every game we play together. just because i don't follow your plans doesn't make me scum. i catch scum great on my own, thank you very much. just look at the game where i replaced you. so you saying im scum because i havent been "following (your flawed) logic" and i need to do this, this and this in order to be town is bs and you know it.

stop bullying other players. it gets you no where. we've gone over this already.

anyways, i'm fairly confident in rofl and ap town reads. i'm still confused about rc though i'm leaning town. venmar and blastoide town.

i think cheery and tf are both suspicious.

Cheery's posts are just confusing to me and i really don't understand his perspective. but that doesn't necessarily relate to his alignment.

I think Tf is a stronger scumread and i'd rather wagon with my town reads than with my confused read.

they both will give us info on the flip

vote: toonfighter

[Eidolon]

RC, i'll go over the flaws in your cheerydog case if you like though i don't think it's exactly necessary.

Basically, i wonder why you refuse to lynch TF?

What makes him town?

If you think AP is town, and you think rofl is bussing his buddy, then what is the flaw in going with tf?

Here is why TF is a stronger scumread: He pretty much admits to being scum because he gave up. He didn't even try to show that he is town. He didn't say a thing. People were saying they caught him and his scumread was full-proof. The fact that he said NOTHING about it means that he knows it's true.

You've played a lot of games with me and you know when they give up like that, they are scum.

Cheery Dog isn't as surefire. Sure, he seems scummy, but a lot of your case on him is wifom, and he tried, which means that he possibly believes what he's saying.

[Eidolon]

i'll be back in a few hours.

[Eidolon]

i already explained, rc. you just seem to ignore what i say to call me scum because i don't succumb to your bullying.

[Eidolon]

what did i ignore?

wtf are you going on about?

You are trying to force me into voting with you and saying i'm not town (and you'll make a case on me) if i don't do things your way. it's bullying. like i said 'll be back later.

[Eidolon]

Sigh. I'm having trouble keeping up with this game.

I'll try to get completely caught up today. I seem to see a lot of repeating arguments and a lot of confusing posts so i ask people to try not to repeat themselves unless absolutely necessary.

Well, out of all the players on the site, I think you are the most fun to play with. I am just disappointed that you think I am bullying. W/e, I'll replace out if you want. I don't want to but I'll do it.

Pedit: you didn't answer why you thought Venmar was town. You never gave a case for voting TF besides he didn't defend himself despite the fact that I asked you a 1000 times.

I am not saying you aren't town if you don't do things "my way." I am saying, as town, you usually vote for the most likely scum. I explained why Cheery is our best lead. You ignored it and voted TF based on about nothing. This isn't your usual town behavior. That is why I think you are scum. You also forgot about Venmar way too easily.

My main argument for TF was laid out in my posts 128 & 140. It was his odd behavior on day one that stuck out for me. His response to me was strange. He implied that i was attacking him when i wasn't = scummy. He calls rofl bussing venmar scum but votes rofl = scummy. His attempts at jsutifications for his actions seemed scummy. When he came back and just gave his name claim, it was really scummy. I'm not saying that it's just that he lurked, but that he didn't make any attempt to explain himself, any attempt to say he'd be back later, didn't give any emotion in that post. it was just a cold claim. I don't see why a town would do taht when they are under pressure. It seemed like someone who got caught. I've seen tons of scum who get caught and just choose to not say anything. But I guess since then he said he will make a post and i'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

I explained about a billion times why i think venmar is town. I'm sorry if you can't accept that but the reasoning isn't poor.

I'm at the point where i focus more on the reactions to the cases than the cases themselves. Remember my case on whiskers in chosen? I was sure it was an airtight case. So sure that i didn't even want to hear the response. Maybe if i waited and heard the response i would have realized that whiskers was town and looked at mcstab. It's the same thing with venmar. His initial response to me WAS scummy, but he started seeming town after that. He seemed like he believed what he was saying. That mixed with his claim was enough for me to let go.

And yes i think cheery is scummy but it's not as strong as TF because he's actually trying and i'm having a tough time distinguishing between his affiliation vs. just his natural playstyle. Plus like i said, i'd rather wagon with two town reads than one not as sure read. But i'll take a look at his responses since i last posted and see if i can get any more clues. I'll show you some of the flaws in your case a little later. I'm at work right now so i'm not sure how much free time i'll have, but i'll get to it at some point today.

Oh and i def. don't want you to replace out.

[Eidolon]

Venmar - While I do find his play to be slightly scummy for earlier on, later posts have made me think he's town. What I do find scummy is the wagon on him. Or more so, the lack there of. What happened to it? Even better question, why does that first question never get answered? Every time someone brings it up, no one acknowledges it. I'll do some in depth reading tomorrow as to just who started leading everyone away from Venmar, and more importantly, who kept them away, and why. I have a feeling scum are written all over that.

what do you mean by this? you say you think venmar is town, and then you say that whoever lead away from his wagon is scum? wtf?

And then why do you say this and then vote RC, who kept going after venmar?

Explain. Your post here has contradiction written all over it.

[Eidolon]

making a wall of a case like that is my #1 scum tell.

[Eidolon]

havingfitz, what you bring up is interesting. quite odd that he did that though i wouldn't necessarily call it surefire. could have been a legit mistake. as for your number one, you say he was suspicious during your readthrough, but don't say why. what was suspicious? also, why do you have an fos on AP?

RC, here, here's the holes i find in your case.

In 236, he says "If we think rolf is bussing, then the bussee must also be scum, because that's how bussing works. What makes rolf the better target when both of them could be town?" So, that means, he should be voting for TF. Or even if he didn't consider bussing, he should be voting for his initial suspicion, Rofl. Instead, he votes me. The reasoning doesn't add up. He simply voted me because he didn't want to vote for Rofl. When rofl had no wagon going on him, Cheery had no problem distancing, but when it did, he chooses to vote for me because by Cheery's reasoning, TF must be scum. It doesn't add up. He simply saw me as an easy target because Angry was suspicious of me. His vote doesn't align with who he finds suspicions. Of course, he fabricates reasons for finding me suspicious after I confront him and demand that he give them - but we'll get to that later. Let's go through the rest of his initial post first.

You're assuming that he should think one thing when he says that he doesn't. he said he thinks both of them could be town, so you saying that he should be voting tf there is invalid.

First off, I haven't been rolefishing. Secondly, a question can be asked nicely in order to get a response. Why throw in a vote? His method of voting and giving shoddy reasoning points to a scum that wants to add his vote to a townie without drawing too much attention to himself. And he would have passed too if I hadn't initially mistaken him for a stupid townie and called him out on it.

You were rolefishing though. I know you do that as town, you are obsessed with prying info out of people as town, so it's not a scumtell, but you were rolefishing.

So his reasoning wasn't shoddy. Pretty much, you show some contradictions but for they weren't full proof by any means.

That being said, i did this for your benefit because you asked. I DO think cheery has done some scummy things, which i will post a bit later, but i don't think the case is as strong as TF.

RC, why is TF town?

[Eidolon]

Okay, i'm taking a look at cheery's iso to try and pinpoint what seems off to me.

overall, i feel that his reads and his leads are a bit lacking. His vote on tangion. He moves it to RC, for reason of rolefishing, which i do understand, but it seems a bit... tunneled. He doesn't really give reads on much else. the only thing i could really find was when he said pretty much that all the active players are town and by poe, tangion was scum. that was bad. He suspects rofl and number q.

I don't like his post 299. He writes a long summary of posts but he really doesn't analyse them, which makes it seem kind of as a fluffy reason to cast suspicion on RC.

Post 321 is off. His response to AP. He takes the joke for serious. I find that slightly scummy, although i've done that as town before too, so it's not a strong read.

I do like some of his posts though. I can see where he's coming from in the way RC has been reacting towards TF. Buuut....

Cheery Dog, if you think TF is scum due to the way RC is defendng him, don't you think it's beneficial for a TF lynch? I don't see RC being lynched today.

I can see a tf/ cheery team and think either will be OKAY today, though right now i prefer TF. Pretty much, EVERYONE is accusing someone else of bussing tf or acting strange in regards to him... but i'd like to hear his response first.

I wish we could get a votecount.

[Eidolon]

so you think TF, havingfitz, rapid, angrypidgeon and cheery dog are all scum?

in what order?

[Eidolon]

how am i missrepping you?

you are the one who said to lynch this list of 5 people. And you basically agreed with me and answered my question regarding it, while saying i was wrong. you think those 5 people are scummy to varying degrees.

[Eidolon]

yeah but you didn't say anything about those variances until i asked you... you just said lynch all these people... so your roadmap was basically a free-for-all.

[Eidolon]

This is why i'm unsure on you, RC:

Pro-town:
- playing MOSTLY to your town meta. Headstrong, passionate, long cases, hard pushes, etc.
- you claim makes enough sense. I'm not 100 on it, but i can believe it. Idk, I could see a mafia watcher, though it's unlikely, especially in a small setup. I haven't seen it here yet. Knowing your style and how you like to get roles out, it seems like you really believed your claim would help you.
- you've been giving strong opinions and a lot of opinions. You haven't really been going back and forth on any issue even in the face of adversity.

Pro-Scum:
- Your defense of TF. For a long time you refused to explain why you thought he was town, and your only reason for scum rofl was "his reponse to tf."
- The way you gave in and voted tf pretty much saying "i'd rather lynch him than me." I certainly understand the reasoning behind this, it just doesn't fit what i know of your play. You are much more headstrong than this. Why, at the time, were you so convinced you were going to be lynched, with just two votes on you, especially with your claim? Thinking back on what i just said about your claim, it seems to be contradictory behavior.

I do think that TF is a good wagon and don't understand your density on the issue. I thought about responding more in depth to your points but i'd just be repeating myself. I don't think either side will change so there's no point in rehashing the same thing over and over. I guess it's up to everyone else as to where the game will go this day and at this point keeping posts low will allow other townies to make a better decision.

I'll consider cheery dog though. I do think he is a decent option. I prefer TF due to a higher scum read and higher associative tells. But i will compromise with Cheery if it comes to that.

Btw, I get annoyed at you once in a while, but i still enjoy playing with you

[Eidolon]

add havingfitz to the list of people to lynch after i'm dead

ITT: The team is probably Rofl, Eid, and RC and Im getting the eternal hell trolled out of me.

That would be epic

[Eidolon]

well that throws my venmar theory out the door.

i still think other players have been more suspicious than him though..

[Eidolon]

What Venmar theory?

Now that our gunsmith is outed, i guess there's no reason not to say.

I thought prof. farnsworth was most likely to have an investigative role.

But seeing that ROFL has one (and he gave it to scruffy no less..) prof. farnsworth is more likely to be a fake claim, or at least less likely to be an investigative role.

That being said, i'm still interested in both cheery and piggy before venmar, though i might look back over his iso just to make sure.

[Eidolon]

Well, theres 2 town roles that could fit with having a gun.

So far, we have a gunsmith, watcher, and presumably one other role that visited me last night. I don't know whether it was town or mafia role but for the sake of role balance speculation, let's say it's a town role.

So there's probably only one town role with a gun, if any. Does calculon fit that? Idk. i'm not going to try outguessing the mod anymore.

But considering the other roles in the game, it's unlikely. And looking at the rest of TF's posts, i'd say he's likely scum.

No, not at all. Hence my suspicion that one of the gunsmith/watcher is going to turn up scum.

Please explain this. How does gunsmith not being a straight-up cop mean that one of them is scum?

Also, at the site where i come from, watcher was always considered a protective, rather than investigative, role. But seeing as how it's less likely to be outted at this site, watcher could make an investigator.

They could both be town, though i'd feel more comfortable about it if TF flips scum and after RC catches a scum with his role.

[Eidolon]

i see what you're saying. i guess my point is that balance-wise, it is possible to have both.

if you are both town, mafia is probably pretty powerful.

maybe a 4 person team, or two power roles.

though i can see a tf/rc scumteam. i'm not sure yet.

you think rc is scum, rofl? do you think gunsmith/watcher combo is possible?

PEDIT: yes i've seen it. why?

[Eidolon]

"your big ugly face is as dumb as a butt!"

"why does everything taste purple?"

"i'll do what i wanna be!"

...yeah, how could i not have seen it?

[Eidolon]

Eidolon, if you've actually seen and and actually seen what the professor does, how can you assume he would be an investigative role?

cause he's the head of planet express. he calls all the shots.

not to mention all the inventions he makes that figure stuff out, like the "what if" machine, and the sniffing scope, and the one that deciphers all languages.

rc what are you talking about? makes me think town though.

[Eidolon]

Why are you talking about possible roles of people besides the person hammered during twilight?

he asked? i'm probably wrong anyway.

[Eidolon]

Whats with that nk? Why didn't rofl/rc die? Trying to get us to lynch one of the power roles? that seems useless. Maybe one of them is scum. Don't see why they would keep rofl alive either way because he can clear/incriminate people if he's town.

Hmmm.

We have the mafia lynch to work with, so that should give us some clues.

IIRC, cheery dog seemed to have some connections to tf.

Have to read over dp 1 for more clues.

[Eidolon]

well, i'm vanilla. wtf. role explosion.

piggy you said you don't know who tangion targeted night one. you should ask the mod and get that clarified asap. also, why did you vig kill blastoide over one of the people that town was suspecting?

either rapid is lying or its a piggy/cheery team and piggy blocked or rolecopped me night one.

rapid, why did you watch me night one?

[Eidolon]

uhhhh..... O.o

like...i just... that was a bad move if you are telling the truth, rc.

why did you think you were going to be mislynched?

i have to wrap my head around this a bit more. i'll be back later.

[Eidolon]

just real quick while i have a minute: Venmar should not claim today. i'm about 99% certain that he is town.

[Eidolon]

Okay. now that i have some decent time, let's analyse this.

AngryPidgeon, Cheery Dog, Eidolon, numberQ, rapidcanyon, roflcopter, PiggyGal15, Venmar, havinfitz

Conftown: AP

Obtown: Rofl, venmar

Prob town: piggy, cheery. i'm not completely sold on both of these, but their claims seem to fit their characters, and we prob shouldn't lynch possible pr's today.

That leaves us with me, numberQ, Rapid, and havingfitz.

Lynch any of these today and we have a likely 50/50 shot of hitting scum. (even better odds if you lynch someone other than me.)

On Rapid: I'm slightly conflicted on him. He's been acting a little out there both dp's but that can be his playstyle at times regardless of alignment. He was defending TF to the core, which isn't something i know he would do if he was scum. He could have been trying something risky, who knows.

About his claim. It's just bad, and i don't consider him a bad player. His results outed a bunch of pr's. If i counted correctly in my skim, he had 3 votes on him when he claimed watcher. He seemed to have been taking heat, but not enough to warrant fake claiming a watcher, imo (though i'm not sure anything would warrant that.)

Havingfitz - he's lurking, but i remember his post struck me as rather townie last dp. Of course, that isn't much.

NumberQ - another lurker.

I think we should pick between numberQ and RC for the lynch today.

I'm gonna do an iso of rc later and see what i can come up with.

[Eidolon]

Eidolon, if you know something about Venmar, you should say so, now.

He can say so if he wishes but i'd prefer him not to. it's not necessary. just take my word for it.

@ Eidolo, you don't really think I am scum, do you? My behavior so far in the game aligns perfectly with my town behavior. Also, do you really think that if I was scum, I would have lasted this long?

You've somewhat matched your townmeta, but there were a few things that struck me as odd about yesterday, such as how you seemed to have given up at some point. You're certainly not a bad scum player and you've won scum games before so the whole "i would have been caught by now" is kind of a wtf type of thing to say?

And i don't recall ever seeing you fake claim as townie before.

[Eidolon]

Why were you so certain that you would be mislynched with only 3 votes on you? And why were you so certain that TF was town?

I don't know why you defended him but you did. You are right, it isn't like you to defend him if you were scum. But POE points to you as a likely person.

I thought you said piggy and cheery were scum?

Then you said i was scum?

Now you are trying to convince me as if i am town and saying to lynch the other two lurkers?

What changed? Who do you think is sucm and why?

PEDIT: I'm at work so i got ninja'd by a bunch of people, but obviously that post was directed at rapid.

[Eidolon]

What really disturbs me is you responded to Cheery's claim to say he is lying (implying that he must not have visited Rofl because you got neg results), but then quickly threw the watcher claim away shortly after and started calling him town.

Even after he admitted to lying he was saying they are still scum.

wtf?

[Eidolon]

why did mafia choose to shoot at the claimed gunsmith and not the claimed watcher? occam's razor says its because the claimed watcher is scum. if rc were really fakeclaiming town, the mafia would not know they could safely shoot at me and would have been forced to kill him. open and shut case. don't listen to anything else rc says.

the only thing wrong with that is if a rber tried to rb rc. he probably wouldn't have known he was rbed if he was vanilla.

i'm leaning scum but i really don't know. his last post towards me seemed like something he would say as town. i have to think on it more and look over his iso.

[Eidolon]

Eidolon, how certain are you of Venmar's _alignment_.

I'm pretty effing certain.

I'm really not sure yet on RC. just give me some time to reread.

[Eidolon]

I dunno, I feel like he may be inventing reads. If RC flips goon, Venmar is suspect IMO.

who me? yeah okay. that's stupid. if i was scum inventing reads, and rc was scum, that's likely the whole scum team right there.... ??????

[Eidolon]

Ok, I need to think about that. No I said HE Eidolon. As in Venmar is inventing reads. Are his reads town motivated or not though?

oh. okay. pretty confident he's town.

Also, RC used a lot of ATE on me, which did actually sound town, but POE and some other things say otherwise. i'm inclined to vote him. don't want to rush anything though, not everyone's had a chance to check in. gonna check the vote count first.

[Eidolon]

There are 3 votes on rapid right now, right?

Ap, it's partially due to flavor, i guess you could say. Venmar kind of hints to it in his latest post, anyway.

Venmar, it's up to you.

[Eidolon]

still catching up but quick note: i have no idea what a smelloscope does. it doesn't say. it just says i can use it on someone any night, one time only.

[Eidolon]

btw, i'm guessing it's some sort of informative tool. maybe a rolecop, or track. i can't remember an f-ray from the show. that might be a kill, who knows, but i'll try to search it if you all are interested.

[Eidolon]

Town pretty much has this in the bag. I want to vote but i want to make sure a few things happen today:

We have it narrowed down to four people. Rapid, Me, #Q, and Havingfitz

Rapid needs to die today.

Piggy OR Rofl need to breadcrumb who they are going to use their night action on. They can decide between them who will do the breadcrumb if they want. Then the other will use their night action on one of the other three left.

So out of three people, 2 are being taken care of. If we make it tomorrow with a inno and a town death, it is likely the third.

This will put us at REALLY GOOD odds going into tomorrow.

If you all think it's better to pick at random without breadcrumbing, then picking between those four are the best options but they could kill/investigate the same person. Less good odds but more chance to work w/o mafia knowing anything.

I'd say town has this game on lock.

It would be nice if we could hear from numberq and havingfitz' replacement today. But honestly, i don't think it's that necessary.

But I won't put my vote up until piggy/rofl have made a decision on what to do.

[Eidolon]

Am I the only one that thinks Venmar has the worlds best fake claim?

Seriously, Im not joking. One of them {Roflcoper, Venmar, Piggy, Cheery} has to be lying. There is no way they are all town. Although not knowing what Venmar's inventions do does make them inherently less powerful. We have time; no need to quick lynch. Please let me sit down and try an power through all the claims and figure out what I think is possible. I realize I'm having a slight soft spot for the RC lynch right now and I should know better because of Mini 1365, but there is so much information out there to parse. Also, I want to go back and ISO some people. FTR, I'm 100% opposed to a lynch today until we hear from HF's slot about what the Fray did.

AP, what? he sent me a SMELL O SCOPE. That is an invention that Prof. Farnsworth used.

So how is Prof. farnsworth a fake claim?

If you think i am lying for him, then that means me and him are mafia together, which would be stupid to tie ourselves in that way. And especially stupid if you think Rapid is mafia.

It's possible that one of the others are lying.

[Eidolon]

We have it narrowed down to four people. Rapid, Me, #Q, and Havingfitz

What? Why? How are all the PR claims conf-town. Rofl is because his claim is pretty much suicide otherwise, but having 4 fairly powerful town PRs seems absurd. Unless Robocopter has a history of PR heavy games and the last 2 mafia roles are PRs. IDK

They aren't, but i'm saying it's likely that one (if not two) of the four of us are scum. if those options don't pan out then we can look at the pr's.

[Eidolon]

It would be nice if we could hear from numberq and havingfitz' replacement today. But honestly, i don't think it's that necessary.

You know this is ridiculous, right? If are town, there is no harm in delaying. If you are scum, are you worried that HF knows what his invention does and you just lied about not knowing and you are going to have him killed tonight?

No, seriously. At least wait for all the info to get out there. Why so hasty? Also, you said multiple times you were leaning town on me and you would go back and re-read. It just doesn't add up.

LOL what? Why would i lie about the invention i got? What purpose does that do?

I'm in no rush. I dont have my vote on anyone, do i?

We can wait to hear from them.

I'm just saying that if others don't want to drag it out, since it seems they might take forever, i'd be okay with lynching.

[Eidolon]

My role pm pretty much says this:

You are kif Kroker, the helper of Zapp brannigan and fongfong ru to Amy Wong. If you joing this w/o knowing kif, click here: ___.

- You have a good night's rest for your night abilities.
- Your voice and vote are powerful weapons. Use them.
- You can't communicate with another player.
- you win when mafia is eliminated, whether or not your survive.

RC, you asked me why you and not the other two. i'll get to that in a bit.

[Eidolon]

Okay, Rapid. heres why i'm supporting lynching you over the other two candidates in the group of vt's.

1. Your fake claim. It was bad. You admit that. I still don't know why you would have done this if you were town, never seen you done this before.

2. It's reasonable that you would play closely to your town meta because that's what scum does. You haven't done that completely though. You've done a few things that varied from that that i've pointed out before.

3. Some of your ATE posts to me seemed townie at first glance, but you misconstrued some things. You said that i should know you so well and be able to read you but:

- I've defended you when you were scum and i was town before.
-I've pushed your lynch when we were both town before.
- You've lasted as scum in games where i was town before.

So it seems like you are just trying to appeal to me so that i will think you are town.

Yes, you have been active and done a lot in the game but that doesn't make you town. POE means that you are likely scum, and you have been the most scummy out of the three people that I'd want to lynch today. Though the other two haven't posted much, it doesn't mean that they are more likely to be scum than you, who has done some questionable things. Sometimes people just aren't active. NumberQ is slightly scummy too, and i think should be our next target and/or vig kill.

Besides, all four of us are likely to die over the next few days anyways. I have a good chance of dying/ being lynched strictly because of POE. It's nice to get rid of the more scummy as soon as possible though.

[Eidolon]

You guys do realize that the 4 claimed PRs are unlikely right? Am I talking to myself?

IDK. I mean, it seems that way, but they all sort of clear themselves:

- Venmar: he has to be prof. farnsworth, and i don't see farnsworth as being in the mafia.

- Piggy & Cheery: Piggy's claim relies on cheery being town due to the kill. Don't see piggy fakclaiming vig. Pretty bad claim if it's not true.

- ROFL: got mafia member killed, risked claiming investigative role before any other claims were out there.

If we don't have this game won soon, we'll have to look closer at everyone.

[Eidolon]

Okay RC, i missed where you showed yourself fake claiming as town. What were you and what did you fake claim?

Actually, it doesn't really matter, i still don't think what you did was town because there really was no benefit.

[Eidolon]

^why?

you cleared him yourself as not having a gun.

[Eidolon]

Im enjoying my conf-town status over here Rofl, don't mind me. Seriously. Don't waste that shit on me, I 'll consider it a scum claim from you Eid.

lol.

well, i'll take what rofl said into consideration.

with a vig a mafia doc isn't too out of the ordinary, but i see how being conf town fits with how you are playing. (not being scared to speak your mind, so to speak.)

i do agree that it's probably better to use it on someone more likely to make it closer to lylo, if the other group of people doesn't pan out. except i'm considering using it on fitz, but not sure yet.

i'm assuming and hoping it is something investigative.

[Eidolon]

I'll respond more later. just feeling blah about these huge wall posts of Rapid OMGUSing me, saying two people are his top scum reads but putting up all this stuff about me. it's aggravating and you are misrepping things just as you claim i am. will get more to this later.

but honestly i'm concerned that he might flip town because of all the effort he's putting into his posts. When he's scum he just goes crazypissed and doesn't care, 'tis true.

Rapid what are your reasonings for numberq or someone else to be more likely scum than you? Even with the POE, i'd rather town have the upper hand of lynching scum today.

how certain is everyone that rapid is scum? do his recent posts seem like scum drowning or townie trying to dig their way to salvation?

[Eidolon]

it's late so i'm only in the mood for quick posts, i'll respond in more detail tomorrow probably, but i just have a question for you.

if you are town, who do you think that is pushing you (on or off your wagon) is scum?

you said venmar, right? i'm pretty certain he is town.

[Eidolon]

The thing about your claim, one example of your twisting, in this instance i see no benefit. i didn't say your claim cleared you until after it did, so that's not really a reason to say "well look i had to do it"

If you had admitted to being VT in the first place and worked on finding scum, that would seem more townie than just claiming that... i mean, really? Why claim something that is so easy to verify as being inaccurate? What is the town motivation in that, because it gets heat on you in the long run, outs other roles in order to figure out who's lying, potentially outs a real watcher and gets you mislynched, etc.

In the other game, you were protecting your PR. it's completely opposite of fake claiming a PR as VT.

But like.. the past few posts seem really townie. I don't see you putting this much effort in your lynch as scum. I know how you treat me as town. you avoid me more as scum. you try to convince me/ attack me a lot as town. i don't think this is a case of "oh he's altering his meta" because i don't think he noticed this before, and i don't think i've pointed this out to him before. So even though i feel like you misconstrue some things, i generally am getting strong town vibes from you right now.

"eido/rc scumteam" yeah yeah blah blah fuck off. i'd like him to be scum but i don't think it's the case. i'd hope it to be late night drowsiness, but i don't think so. He's probably town.

I think we need to hear from numberq & havingfitz replacement before making a decision.

I would support a numberq lynch right now.

[Eidolon]

Eidolon, has RC posted so many walls as scum in the past?

Yes, he always does the wall thing but when close to a lynch, as scum he's less likely to provide so many walls or analysis, he kinda just repeats himself a lot about why he is innocent, or the case on him is bad, and insults his accuser, from what i remember.

It's true though that a numberq lynch wouldn't give us many associative tells, but i think he's more likely to be scum. i just don't see RC scum anymore.

[Eidolon]

@ mod, could you replace numberq & havingfitz?

we really need to hear more from them this day. if not, our only viable option is rc. i'm leaning town on him about 70/ 30

[Eidolon]

yeah, i think it was pretty apparent that AP was rofl's main target. AP, did he actually breadcrumb you as his target or did you just guess that because you were one of his main suspicions?

Either way, i think it's kind of stupid for HF to do, and probably scummy.

He could of thought that the ray was a vig shot, though.

Evil, will be interested in your current list of reads/ thoughts on the rc wagon.

BTW, i was told already that my smelloscope is one shot.

[Eidolon]

even so, why vig someone who was about to be investigated? useless.

[Eidolon]

Lol. yeah. i just realized that it's stupid for a vig too.

vote: Evilgorrillaz

[Eidolon]

ask and ye shall receive:



but i imagine as a mod, you would much prefer this one:



now to read over the thread...

[Eidolon]

AP, I am very disapoint with that picture. ಠ_ಠ I expect better next time. (Eidolon, what happened to your first image? ...or was that the joke?)

Umm, it shows up for me? it's fry squinting.

One thing that we do have to consider is that hf was barely in the game, so he might not have been paying attention, and just took a shot at who he thought was scummy. Still, i don't know why anyone thought ap was scum in particular at that point. would have been more beneficial to target people off of scum's wagon.

[Eidolon]

The thing is, I just can't see why scum would want to do what HF did.

If I were scum, and got a PR, I would use it on a null-read that everyone had and say "Oh, I used this PR and got guilty!"

Scum just have no reason to target someone they know will turn up town and is being targeted by someone who they also know is town. (Mind you, I agree that it's not exactly the towniest thing to do, but if anything, it's most likely the first option you said, maybe HF hadn't read/understood that rofl was going to target you and so HF targeted you himself.)

P-edit: D: why can't I see a pretty picture of Fry squinting? Mafiascum! I have never disapoint!!
And Eidolon, don't ninja me, it's mean

and get yourself lynched when the person flips town?

Scum knows that all townies will turn up town - they target someone that they think they might get a role out of, or might be able to kill, or whatever.

[Eidolon]

had a busy weekend, will catch up with this game more tomorrow. have to refresh my memory since it's been so long... but i used my smelloscope on evilgorillaz and got back no track result.

[Eidolon]

hey all. really sorry for the lack of input this day period so far.

i'm tackling the posts right now and will hopefully have a few things to say in a bit.

[Eidolon]

First of all, the mod specifically used the word track, so I know it was a tracking result.

With power roles being prevalent in town, and a mafia goon death, there are probably two power roles left. Even if there is just one mafia pr, it’s likely one did the killing and one used the pr.

The only thing that’s stopping me is from thinking that ninja could be a power.

But I see no reason why it would fit with game balance, unless there is a mafia joat.

Regardless, odds are pretty strong that evil is town.

[Eidolon]

okay so it's basically between angry/piggy/qwintz/cheery...

i see the case on piggy but i'm not entirely convinced on it. no one's reported being roleblocked, so IF piggy is telling the truth, cheery is probably lying about being doc.

could they be scum together? idk. i don't think so. i remember rapid was pretty adamant about that idea yesterday. i'll have to check back into that later.

angry & qwints posts have both seemed very pro-town so far, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are town. i'll have to look more carefully at both of them.

there's a big push to lynch a pr, but it's more wise for us to lynch between the vanillas today, imo. unless strong evidence supports to someone else.

piggy, do you know if you still have your vig shot?

i think it's worthless for us to analyse character/role prevalence, but balance is a good thing to discuss. i see vig being more balanced with gunsmith than doctor....

it's late. more analysis coming tomorrow.

[Eidolon]

^I like your idea of analyzing possible pairings though i think you have it wrong. (obviously, you put me in like half of them lol) i do think it's possible that cheery/qwints can be scum together. Who else would be a better target for them to go after today and why would they think that one of them would necessarily be the next one to go if piggy flipped town? i agree that it's not very likely that cheery/piggy could be scum, but i'm not ruling out an ap/cheery team either. I want to say you and qwints are both town but it's not probable. You have more town cred than qwints based on your reaction with TF, though.

Basically, I think any pairing could be possible, aside from (most likely) venmar and evil in any pairing, and piggy/cheery being improbable. Maybe i will analyse this side of it more carefully as i do my iso's, as thinking about pairings right now is a good way to go.

AP, which of the pairings do you think is most likely?

cheery's analysis on why i am town to him is slightly off, but idk, i'll have to look more carefully at his iso.

Cheery, what about did the results made you think i am town?

@ Venmar. if you're having trouble following the role speculation (i agree, it gets confusing, i like games better when it isn't so complex) these two questions could help you sort out scum:

1. who was on/off the tf wagon for the right reasons?
2. who was on/ off the rapid wagon for the right reasons?

I'll post more tonight, possibly start on some iso's.

[Eidolon]

Oh yeah, i forgot Rofl cleared Angry. It's not 100% because angry could be the mafia doc, but it's not likely. Well what that means for sure is that piggy and angry aren't scum together. (there would be no need for a mafia doc if there was no vig.)

soo.. possible teams:

qwints/ piggy - it seems unlikely that qwints would bus piggy right now, but given what qwints slot was left from numberq, it kind of makes sense. piggy knows she'd have a slim chance living after faking the vig claim. perfect opportunity for a bus and a way to make it seem realistic.

angry/qwints - i can't imagine that they would both be scum but it's possible. idk. not sure why angry would be trying to clear a piggy/cheery team in this situation, but it's possibly a way to seperate himself from qwints.

piggy/cheery - if they were both scum, it would mean that there was a town gunsmith and a town joat. It's not that unlikely, depending on what the scum roles were. I don't really get what angry is saying about piggy's fakeclaim. rc said piggy visited me, she was baffled because it wasn't true, and fake claimed vig to get heat off of her, knowing there was a gunsmith. cheery claimed doc to back piggy's story. it actually makes sense that this could be the case.

Cheery can only be scum with piggy. i mentioned this before in the last day phase but forgot since the long break. If piggy was telling the truth about vigging blastoide, then there had to have been protection on someone for only one kill that night. It's a SLIGHT possibility the vig and mafia killed the same person, but that's unlikely.

Evil- it is correct that evil could have opted not to do the night kill, if he is a goon. He was a prime choice for town investigation that night, so they could have went with the other person performing the role. if he's scum, it could be with pretty much anyone, except cheery.

I think our best option is to lynch one of qwints/ piggy, and since qwints is voting piggy....

[Eidolon]

Hmm.. okay. yeah, evil wouldn't make sense with ap, qwints, or venmar since evil didn't do anything last night. if he was a goon he'd have to be with piggy, in order to explain what happened last night.

sigh. all this night action spec really has me unmotivated, but i'm going to do some iso's at some point, maybe find scum the old fashioned way lol..

AP, your idea that i could be scum with anyone doesn't make me scum. only one team has to be the scum team, and there are other possible teams that don't involve me. Show me what i've done that is scummy.

Remember, if evil was town and I was scum, it wouldn't make much sense for me to clear him in the way that i did. He would have been an easy mislynch today and i pretty much cleared him from being scum. so unless you have good reason to believe that evil and i are the scumteam, your idea that i'm scum with someone else doesn't really cut it. That is essentially your reasoning for clearing some of the other teams (Such as qwints/piggy iirc) so you are being speculative with your analysis in order to incriminate me for whatever reason.

Anyways, i really think it's a piggy/cheery scumteam, based on their day 2 roleclaims and how they covered each other, but i'm gonna check some stuff out before coming to a decision. They both have been playing slightly scummy, too.

[Eidolon]

Well, he's been playing pretty pro-town today, and i agree with much of his analysis. I like his hard pushing throughout the day. He came into a really scummy slot though, so he could be be compensating for that, which is why I could see him being scum with piggy. Maybe with you but that is less likely.

Basically, i see the scumteam likeliness like this, most to least:

-cheery/piggy
-qwints/piggy
- evil/piggy
-angry/ qwints

anyone/ venmar - very unlikely, venmar is town.

cheery/angry - pretty much impossible (cheery can't be mafia with anyone but piggy)
cheery/qwints - pretty much impossible
anyone but piggy/ evil- pretty much impossible (evil didn't go anwhere and piggy/cheery night actions mean that both scum would have had to of messed with them.)

Anyway, qwints is one of the ones that i'm gonna read iso's of before making a decision. All the role spec is kind of getting in my way of normal analysis (vca and stuff) so i'm gonna try putting that aside as i do my iso's, and then hopefully merge them together afterward.

[Eidolon]

actually, putting it like that, piggy is probably the best lynch today. and i see why you would want my lynch if your list has me popping up as much, but i think your reasoning is flawed.

ap, could you list your possible scum teams (preferably from most to least)?

[Eidolon]

When did i ever say i don't bus as scum? I said it was unreasonable that i'd clear evil if he was town and i was scum.

I agree that based on last night, we should lynch between piggy/qwints/cheery today, probably one of the first two.

[Eidolon]

I remember Rapid saying that i don't bus as scum, maybe that's what you're thinking of.

[Eidolon]

i think it's either cheery or qwints. will post more later.

[Eidolon]

why is cheery prob town? i'm leaning him as scum tbh, though i haven't really decided yet. i'm gonna have to do some iso's.

[Eidolon]

Cheery, you said if Piggy flipped goon that either Eidolon or I would be the other scum., so I don't like the fact that you chose to protect Venmar over AP who I perceived to be more obv-town yesterday.

how does the first phrase lead to the second? they don't seem connected at all?

And why are you so focused on venmars night actions?

[Eidolon]

As i said before, i wanted to finish iso's before putting my vote up. there was no need to rush, even though we lynched scum.

i hold that stance today too. i'd like to do iso's before making my mind up.

Qwints, i see your point about cheery saying he was roleblocked and i'll have to find that post. he wasn't roleblocked because mafia killed someone else that night.

cheery, were you told you were roleblocked or did you just assume?

[Eidolon]

Chreey claimed to protect Rofl on night 3, but rofl died anyway.

ohhh... okay. hmm. i'll do some iso's tonight or tomorrow at the latest. i'm really going back and forth on it right now. O.o

[Eidolon]

oh man... 2 votes on each? i hate being in this position lol.

hopefully i can provide a full analysis later today.

[Eidolon]

Sorry for holding things up, i'll get to an analysis tomorrow hopefully.

I still want to make sure everything is considered before deciding, and make sure everything that needs to be discussed is.

venmar, why is cheery town?

[Eidolon]

Okay. Sorry for taking so long. I've been really busy and I never have much time on the weekends to come on. I've been really busy at my work lately, but i know i've been holding out too long and i need to get a post in.

So, Qwints.

We need to look at numberq first.

I remember his initial first vote on himself when mild rvs pressure sprun up on him. a little odd.

He hammered acomist "accidentally" Blah. Really don't like that. He doesn't offer very much input on the whole.

Qwints came in with a fresh mindset and was acting very pro-town. But I worry that he's trying to compensate for what numberq's slot left.

She came out pushing hard on piggy, and kept pushing piggy to be lynched. Is this a bus move?

Thing is, piggy's claim couldn't have gone anywhere, and the other mafia teammate had to know that. So the other teammate probably felt the need to bus. Qwints made up for numberq's lack of play by bussing her teammate.


Cheery Dog

I'm not sure that I like the way things played out when Piggy and Cheery claimed. Their claims seemed to help support each other and like a way to get a ML out of rapid.

It would be risky to do that though.


TF doesn't give us many clues as far as buddies, but Piggy gives plenty of input.

Piggy seems to buddy with cheery dog a couple of times. She does it in her initial post of the game, 409, without saying much about numberq. He wasn't around so that makes since, but i think her buddying with cheery means that qwints is probably the teammate.

I really wished i had more time to type up this response after holding everyone off for so long. But i've thought about it a lot and i think the best option is to

vote: qwints

[Eidolon]

I'm here. I'm pretty sure it's Cheery. i will post more later. guess we gotta wait on evil anyways.

[Eidolon]

I said pretty sure because of course it's a slight possibility that Evil is scum and didn't use a night action the night i targeted him.

However, that is unlikely which means that its likely is you.

How are you SO SURE that evil is town?

I'll make a case later.