Micro 21: Bird 7P GAME OVER

[saulres]

VOTE: Zachrulez

'Cause he's the only dude I've been in a game with before. You want my meta, you have to work for it!

[saulres]

Nice OMGUS, Zach

FuDuzn, are you saying your vote of Empking wasn't an RVS one?

[saulres]

You seem to post a lot (as your spate of posting five times in a hour shows) but then, once you'd done some serious finger pointing, you fell silent.

...

Maybe you're not aware of this, but people have lives. I, for example, can often be online and posting here a lot in a short period, and sometimes (like this holiday weekend) only pop in from time to time. You'd accuse me of being scum for that too?

It's gut instinct on my part but I think you were trying to give people an easy target to wagon early on

This is exactly what I thought when I saw your reasoning for putting the second vote on Scooby, and it's getting stronger the more you keep making lame arguments.

It's early in the day, Scooby may be scum, but I think you're much more likely to be.

VOTE: Carbondioxide

[saulres]

Obviously I'm town

Just saying it's obvious doesn't make it so. Why do you think it's obvious?

[saulres]

It's a holiday weekend in the US:

Labor day weekend. We're probably going to be looking for stuff to do, so don't expect me to be around much until Tuesday.

Carbon, do you have links to games you're played before? You seem to be focused on how frequently people are posting, and how they're posting, much more than the contents of their posts. That feels like scum trying to find a reason to place votes, but I suppose it

could

be due to how they played where you've played before, so I'd like to take a look.

I'd ask that no one hammer before that information is provided for analysis.

[saulres]

Currently yes he's the top. I have a second, but don't see a reason to state who it is because all that would do is help the scum figure who to target tonight.

[saulres]

VOTE: Empking

In what world is revealing our only other PR a good idea for town?

[saulres]

UNVOTE:

Just realized we're in LyLo.

[saulres]

Unvote

[saulres]

Anti.

I really want to hear from others.

[saulres]

scooby, why do you keep asking people for their reads without giving any of your own?

Zach: Please explain why you quickhammered on page 3 instead of prolonging discussion and scumhunting.

Finally: "Mass" claim seems a bit of a misnomer, given that there's only one claim to be made But, could someone explain to me why it's ideal at this point? The way I see it, what it would do is reduce the potential scumpool to 4 from 5, at the cost of, if we get to tonight, telling scum who to kill (and putting us at LyLo again tomorrow).

Conversely, if we make it to tonight with scum having only a 1-in-3 chance of hitting the

doc

guardian, and potentially giving us a 3 on 1 tomorrow (if the

doc

guardian protects the scumkill), that gives us two chances to hit the final scum instead of just one. With the shortness of this game I think that would be a huge advantage if the doc (screw the werewolf terminology) can pull it off.

That's why I'm anti-mass-claim, unless the PR feels he's getting close to being mislynched today.

[saulres]

Empking:

Explain to me, step by step, why you think if we don't out the doc we're going to lose.

[saulres]

How does outting the doc prevent us from lynching a VT? Or are you planning to run everyone up to L-1 to see what they claim? Because we can't do that; as soon as we place the first vote on a townie, scum can quickhammer.

[saulres]

To lynch scum means that the Doc is going to get outted anyway.

That's what you said.

You have so far failed to explain why that would be true.

[saulres]

This is all nice discussion, and I'm still thinking about the arguments put forth to decide whether or not to support a PR reveal (of course the PR could just reveal himself without everyone's backing I suppose), and I'd still like to hear Scooby's take on it, but while we're arguing it, there's still scum to be found.

Empking

, if you found scooby scummy in 20, why did you vote Carbon instead?

In 63 you said your sudden townread on Carbon was due to his "newb derping"; what made you think it was town newb as compared to scum newb?

FuDuzn

, in reading your posts, I'm finding very little original thought. By that I mean, in several of your posts I see rehashes of arguments made by others, with maybe one line thrown in that adds anything. I see that both in your entry to the Carbon wagon and now in the discussion of whether to "massclaim" or not. Is that your normal style? Do you have a link to a scumgame I could meta you on?

Zach

, I'm not seeing any pro-town actions from you at all. In the post you hammered Carbon, you expressed suspicion of our two flipped townies and no one else. I remember your reads being better; is my memory at fault?

Scooby

I've already asked one question of and I might have more when he answers.

[saulres]

FuDuzn,

First, that's not how popcorning works (not that I'm sure when we agreed to popcorning). You're supposed to ask your scummiest suspect to go next. Do you really think I'm scummier than Zach, who has done nothing this game other than hammer a townie?

I want Zach claiming before I do.

Second, to answer your question:

Not sure how I am rehashing other arguments in regards to the massclaim disscussion, I would like some clarification on that.

Here you go.

could someone explain to me why it's ideal at this point? The way I see it, what it would do is reduce the potential scumpool to 4 from 5, at the cost of, if we get to tonight, telling scum who to kill (and putting us at LyLo again tomorrow).

Conversely, if we make it to tonight with scum having only a 1-in-3 chance of hitting the doc guardian, and potentially giving us a 3 on 1 tomorrow (if the doc guardian protects the scumkill), that gives us two chances to hit the final scum instead of just one. With the shortness of this game I think that would be a huge advantage if the doc (screw the werewolf terminology) can pull it off.

With the macho seer dead I believe a mass claim would not be for the best. Even we all claim then we will have outed the doc, and even if we lynch scum toDay then the doc will die at Night and we are then left at lylo again Tomorrow with three unknowns........and this is in a best case scenario. Basically I think the best chance we have is to keep the doc hidden.

Let's say we lynch scum toDay. If the doc has been outed then he most likely would be killed at Night and then Tomorrow in a lylo situation there will be three unconfirmed players. If the doc has not been outed then he very well could pull off a successful protection and then Tomorrow there would be three townies left

I see no fundamental difference, content-wise, between what I wrote and what you wrote.

=============

Saul's scum. Called it.

Explain why.

Also explain where you called it. In your QT?

[saulres]

Empking

, if you found scooby scummy in 20, why did you vote Carbon instead?

In 63 you said your sudden townread on Carbon was due to his "newb derping"; what made you think it was town newb as compared to scum newb?

Zach

, I'm not seeing any pro-town actions from you at all. In the post you hammered Carbon, you expressed suspicion of our two flipped townies and no one else. I remember your reads being better; is my memory at fault?

[saulres]

pedit: Wanted to add:

Zach

: Why do you think Emp's scum?

[saulres]

And, somehow I missed Emp's response in 103. So really it's just Zach who I have questions for at the moment.

Sorry for the brainfritzing.

[saulres]

Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

Why didn't you say that when you did your catchup hammer post? Here's what you said about Emp:

And now lynching anyone else is the suboptimal play. (Empking touched on the risk of outing power, which can happen outright, and also by outing vanillas to scum. That's why not lynching vanilla claims is a terrible idea.)

[saulres]

Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

I thought I heard something like that before.

Emp, if you think he's town, the wisest thing, I should think would be to place your vote on somebody you feel we'll hit scum on and attempt to avoid LyLo in the first place. This seems like an attempt to push the lynch forward but still being able to throw your hands up and say you thought it was best for the town.

Lots of duplicate ideas in this game. Not sure what to make of that.

[saulres]

@Mod: Requesting prod of FuDuzn

(over 48 hours since last post here)

[saulres]

Empking, when you came to the conclusion that I was scum, you did it based on:

Claim delaying.

Please explain how I delayed claiming.

[saulres]

Presuming you come on the site at least once a day

Reasonable presumption, but (despite appearances) not also accurate.

But okay, let's say I was delaying. What scum motivation do you think I would have had for doing so?

pedit: It's not agreeing, it's taking what I said and essentially repeating it. Much easier to quote me, or link to it, rather than reword it.

[saulres]

Given that claiming and talking about claiming is all we've done today, do you really think scum would have needed any more time to think about it?

[saulres]

willing to go 1-1

What does that mean?

[saulres]

When I flip town, he'll celebrate his victory. (he's being disingenuous and using languange that means "Lynch X, if they town lynch me next".)

That's what I thought he meant, but it didn't make any sense given we're in LyLo, so if he's wrong, we lose ("We" being town, which doesn't necessarily include you.)

I'm guessing that you think he's town, though, because you're not voting him back?

[saulres]

It's six pages, just wondering how long it's going to take you to re-read.

[saulres]

[saulres]

Dammit! I had FuDuzn pegged as my top scumspect when I sent in my protection last night.

And who did I protect? For various reasons, which I can copy-paste tomorrow if you want -- Zach.

Tonight I was going to protect Scooby if I wasn't outed.

With Empking and Scooby going at each other, we didn't stand a chance today. I can't believe in a seven-player game, one scum could lurk to victory.

[saulres]

Because I didn't have a good read on Saulres, so I figured I'd take a chance there.

That's good actually. I was kind of playing for that. I figured if I could get cleared as town and avoid claiming, I'd have a good chance of surviving N2 so we could win.

Unfortunately, this is part of what I sent cobbler in my N1 kill PM:

The way zabriel avoided voting Carbon also bothers me; like scum trying to avoid hammering so as not to look scummy. In particular I'm looking at 46 where he FOS instead of hammers. Could be town, but gut's telling me otherwise.

[saulres]

I'd be interested in knowing why.

PoE. Here's the full thing.

Spoiler: N1 Protection

This is a tough one. I have plenty of scum reads, but not enough town ones.

FuDuzn is my top scumread right now. His entry to the Carbon wagon felt forced, and I didn't like his vote-unvote on Empking. With his defense of scooby I need to steer clear of scooby just in case.

The way zabriel avoided voting Carbon also bothers me; like scum trying to avoid hammering so as not to look scummy. In particular I'm looking at 46 where he FOS instead of hammers. Could be town, but gut's telling me otherwise.

That puts it between Zach and EmpKing. Zach doesn't have enough content to have a read on, but with Scooby and FuDuzn both having EmpKing as their #2 scumread, I can't see scum killing Emp.

That leaves, well, me. Maybe I'm so obvtown that I'll be killed. If so, this doesn't matter. But since I can't self-protect...

Protect: Zach

We'll see if my reads are anything close to right going forward.

Your reaction to Empking suggesting massclaim made your role obvious to me before we even actually massclaimed.

It did? Could you tell me why? Is outing the doc really the way to go in this situation?

[saulres]

Saulres and Zabriel felt like they were playing under the radar. (Didn't see anything that looked like an apparent breadcrumb.

If I was staking on it, I'd say they have the highest chance of being power roles.

I don't think I was playing under the radar, but I did leave a breadcrumb

[saulres]

FuDuzn, you were my top read going into the night. When the new day started, I forgot it was LyLo and thought Empking was scum for asking us to massclaim. In LyLo I'm even more cautious than usual, and even if you were my top scumread, I analyze again and again. I reread (multiple times) the vote you made and unmade on Empking and finally decided it could have been an honest mistake instead of scumminess.

Then after I made my initial questions, I intentionally sat back to see how people reacted to conversation. Unfortunately instead of discussion, it quickly got into votes, and it was too late.

What I should have done was push Zach more. But I think if we went into Day 3 with you, Emp, and Scooby, we would have lost anyway the way they were going at each other.

[saulres]

His all kinds of crazy sure seemed that way during the game, but in retrospect it was right on target.

Part of what was keeping me nervous about FuDuzn being town was his (seemingly) totally innocent response to Scooby.