Micro 21: Bird 7P GAME OVER

Zachrulez · Post Post #22 (isolation #0) » Sat Sep 01, 2012 5:03 am

Meh

Vote: Saulres

For being meta evasive.

Labor day weekend. We're probably going to be looking for stuff to do, so don't expect me to be around much until Tuesday.

Zachrulez · Post Post #66 (isolation #1) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 1:54 am

Here now and reading.

Zachrulez · Post Post #67 (isolation #2) » Tue Sep 04, 2012 3:36 am

The meh in my first post was disinterest in the point that scooby was driving at in his interaction with Fuduzn. I don't find confirmation tells to be reliable ones. I also don't think that's going to be something scum is going to seize on because it's going to become very apparent that it's an incorrect theory that's being pushed and it's going to be obvious who pushed it. (scooby's interaction was the first major action of the game.)

Zabriel and Carbon chose to play on this as a significantly scummy action. Even more interestingly is that Zabriel quickly shifts from that into finding Carbon scummy himself. That's a very opportunistic shift.

Of further interest is the fact that Carbon found Scooby's lack of vote to be a scummy action early on, but when Zabriel withdraws his vote and voices suspicion of him with an FOS, he doesn't seem to find that noteworthy. It's significant for me mostly because it's kinda hard to fault Scooby realistically in the position he was critical of the non vote as we passed from pre-game (where votes don't count.) into day 1. Ignoring Zabriel's unvote and replacing his position with a weaker non vote position is totally in the context the game which is now in day 1, and he let that action pass without so much as noting it.

In post 59, Carbondioxide wrote:Wow... so I'm L-1... and now I should claim? Sorry to pull the "I'm new" card (again) but... I'm new. How does claiming work? Surely, even if I was scum I'd say "Oh yes, I claim... I'm Vanilla Townie, 'onest guv'nor." (or words to that effect). Or is false claiming an MS no-no?

Screw it.
CLAIM:
I'm Vanilla Townie.

Not sure how I prove that but it's true. I'm guessing that makes me a shade safer from the scum, as they'll be after the power players... but not sure I feel that great about narrowing the field for them to hit a power townie in.

And now lynching anyone else is the suboptimal play. (Empking touched on the risk of outing power, which can happen outright, and also by outing vanillas to scum. That's why not lynching vanilla claims is a terrible idea.)

Vote: Carbondioxide

Zachrulez · Post Post #78 (isolation #3) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:02 am

Yeah, massclaim should happen.

Which is all I'll say until we either do so, or establish that we're not mass claiming.

Zachrulez · Post Post #80 (isolation #4) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:53 am

That's just the thing Saul, the benefits you are laying out only apply if a scum lynch happens today, something that is less likely without a mass claim. The benefits that we would potentially have tomorrow from a doctor reaching that point don't mean much if we don't even get there.

Zachrulez · Post Post #81 (isolation #5) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:59 am

In post 79, saulres wrote:Zach: Please explain why you quickhammered on page 3 instead of prolonging discussion and scumhunting.

Basically because he claimed vanilla and there was a good chance he was scum. The latter might be worth having more discussion, but when combined with the former, it just becomes damaging if the wagon dissipates.

Zachrulez · Post Post #99 (isolation #6) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:34 am

In post 97, FuDuzn wrote:You asked me how we can win without outting the doc toDay, and I answered with various situations where the odds are better for town to win without outting the doc. If I had an airtight plan that guaranteed to work plan I would lay it all out, all I have is odds that tell me outting the doc toDay is a bad idea.

And please anwer the question yoursel, why is outting the doc a good idea?

Pre Edit: Yes a mislynch means we lose, and I do see that outting the doc does make odds better of hitting scum toDay. But then Tomorrow it puts us in a potentially much worse position then if we kept the doc hidden.

Explain the odds because I don't see it.

Zachrulez · Post Post #116 (isolation #7) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:41 am

In post 114, saulres wrote:FuDuzn,

First, that's not how popcorning works (not that I'm sure when we agreed to popcorning). You're supposed to ask your scummiest suspect to go next. Do you really think I'm scummier than Zach, who has done nothing this game other than hammer a townie?

I want Zach claiming before I do.

You're confirmed town. That's my claim.

Confident Emp is scum, unsure between Scooby and Fu.

Zachrulez · Post Post #120 (isolation #8) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:48 am

In post 101, saulres wrote:
Zach
, I'm not seeing any pro-town actions from you at all. In the post you hammered Carbon, you expressed suspicion of our two flipped townies and no one else. I remember your reads being better; is my memory at fault?

It's been a while but I've had games where I was right about pretty much nothing.

In post 118, saulres wrote:pedit: Wanted to add:

Zach
: Why do you think Emp's scum?

Saulres suspicion is opportunistic. Accusing you of delaying massclaim over a weekend is really crappy reasoning.

Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

Zachrulez · Post Post #122 (isolation #9) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:54 am

In post 121, saulres wrote:
In post 120, Zachrulez wrote:Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

Why didn't you say that when you did your catchup hammer post? Here's what you said about Emp:

In post 67, Zachrulez wrote:And now lynching anyone else is the suboptimal play. (Empking touched on the risk of outing power, which can happen outright, and also by outing vanillas to scum. That's why not lynching vanilla claims is a terrible idea.)

Because I just saw it now looking back.

Zachrulez · Post Post #124 (isolation #10) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:01 am

Yeah, a post that doesn't look scummy can look different once you can look back on it with new information.

Basically I didn't give the comment you made about thinking carbon was town much thought at that point because carbon hadn't flipped town and I didn't think there was a strong chance he was going to at that point.

Zachrulez · Post Post #141 (isolation #11) » Tue Sep 11, 2012 8:18 am

Leaning toward an empking vote but re-reading to make sure I haven't missed anything.

Zachrulez · Post Post #149 (isolation #12) » Wed Sep 12, 2012 1:48 am

PRIORITY OVERRIDE: INCINERATE! EXTERMINATE!

Vote: scooby

Zachrulez · Post Post #156 (isolation #13) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 1:52 am

In post 153, saulres wrote:Dammit! I had FuDuzn pegged as my top scumspect when I sent in my protection last night.

And who did I protect? For various reasons, which I can copy-paste tomorrow if you want -- Zach.

Tonight I was going to protect Scooby if I wasn't outed.

With Empking and Scooby going at each other, we didn't stand a chance today. I can't believe in a seven-player game, one scum could lurk to victory.

We never got around to discussing how to coordinate a quickhammer, so that ended up making my lurking look a lot worse. As it was the move Fuduzn pulled at the time he did it was genius cause he managed to get Empking to cross vote and make it a lot easier.

Zachrulez · Post Post #158 (isolation #14) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 2:20 am

In post 155, Carbondioxide wrote:Hello. Well played Zach & Fuz (and everyone else too). This was my first game on MS. Quite gutted to be lynched on D1 but safe to say I learned some things - especially about claiming and 'having' to do it.

I'd be grateful for any tips/advice/comments y'all had on my play - either here on in PM. Thanks in advance.

L-1 and the hammer on you were cast by scum. Take that for what it is.

Zachrulez · Post Post #162 (isolation #15) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 4:31 am

In post 153, saulres wrote:Dammit! I had FuDuzn pegged as my top scumspect when I sent in my protection last night.

And who did I protect? For various reasons, which I can copy-paste tomorrow if you want -- Zach.

I'd be interested in knowing why.

In post 153, saulres wrote:Tonight I was going to protect Scooby if I wasn't outed.

Your reaction to Empking suggesting massclaim made your role obvious to me before we even actually massclaimed.

Zachrulez · Post Post #163 (isolation #16) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 4:32 am

Oh, and I can post the scum QT if Fuduzn is ok with it.

Zachrulez · Post Post #165 (isolation #17) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 5:25 am

In post 164, saulres wrote:

In post 162, Zachrulez wrote:Your reaction to Empking suggesting massclaim made your role obvious to me before we even actually massclaimed.

It did? Could you tell me why? Is outing the doc really the way to go in this situation?

Was pretty sure your opposition to massclaim and vote for Empking came from a place of "I'm the doctor and I want to stay hidden!"

On that topic, it would have been nice if you left that vote there...

Zachrulez · Post Post #168 (isolation #18) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 5:48 am

In post 167, saulres wrote:
Zach in the scum QT wrote:Saulres and Zabriel felt like they were playing under the radar. (Didn't see anything that looked like an apparent breadcrumb.

If I was staking on it, I'd say they have the highest chance of being power roles.

I don't think I was playing under the radar, but I did leave a breadcrumb

Now I have to try to find it!

Zachrulez · Post Post #170 (isolation #19) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:05 am

In post 169, FuDuzn wrote:What I am most proud about this game is neither Zach nor I were in any real danger of being lynched.

It really is interesting how much easier a game can be when you're not quick to bus... particularly in a meta where people are looking for busses.

Zachrulez · Post Post #173 (isolation #20) » Thu Sep 13, 2012 10:26 am

In post 171, saulres wrote:FuDuzn, you were my top read going into the night. When the new day started, I forgot it was LyLo and thought Empking was scum for asking us to massclaim. In LyLo I'm even more cautious than usual, and even if you were my top scumread, I analyze again and again. I reread (multiple times) the vote you made and unmade on Empking and finally decided it could have been an honest mistake instead of scumminess.

Then after I made my initial questions, I intentionally sat back to see how people reacted to conversation. Unfortunately instead of discussion, it quickly got into votes, and it was too late.

What I should have done was push Zach more. But I think if we went into Day 3 with you, Emp, and Scooby, we would have lost anyway the way they were going at each other.

Yeah when you got annoyed with my lurking at the end of day 2 I was mostly just waiting for a chance to hammer empking before Fuduzn set scooby up for a lynch on the crossvote.

Saying I was re-reading a 6 page game to buy time was not one of the smarter things I'd ever said.