A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[Eddard Stark]

"As swift as the wind he rides, and behind him his khalasar covers the earth, men without number, with arakhs shining in their hands like blades of razor grass. Fierce as a storm this prince will be. His enemies will tremble before him, and their wives will weep tears of blood and rend their flesh in grief. The bells in his hair will sing his coming, and the milk men in the stone tents will fear his name." The old woman trembled and looked at Dany almost as if she were afraid. "The prince is riding, and he shall be the stallion who mounts the world.

Day 2, Votecount 5

bvoigt (9) - Dolorous Edd, Staeg, Benmage, Shadow1psc Mastermind of Sin, Shinori, kortul, Pandora, BBmolla

Saporerint (1) - Tyene Sand

Not Voting (14):

Minimum, Lyanna Stark, Mockingjaye, MagnaofIllusion, Plums Yo Mamma, Magua, Regfan, Zdenek, Bvoigt, Plessiezarus, Feysal, Saporerint, Starbuck, Jal

With 24 alive it takes 13 to lynch.

• Deadline
  : 22nd September at 00:39am Ireland time. (GMT+1)
  
• Countdown to deadline
  : (expired on 2012-09-21 19:39:47)
  
• MagnaofIllusion is V/la

[Plessiezarus]

Here's a current list of our reads:

STRONG TOWN READS
Tammy, Pandora, Regfan, BBmolla

WEAK TOWN READS
Jal, Edd, MoS, Benmage, Shadow1psc

NULL
Staeg, Magua, MagnaOfIllusion, Plum+Nacho, Starbuck, Mockingjaye, Zdenek,

WEAK SCUM READS
Tyene, Minimum, kortul

STRONG SCUM READS
bvoigt, Shinori, Sapororerint, Feysal

Our null pile is disappointingly large, at this stage. We had both Plum and Starbuck as town-reads on day 1, but rereading and vote analysis (and the fact Starbuck just hasn't been here for most of the game after having dissipated her suspicion) has pushed them both down. Zdenek replaced Amrun, who we had as a weak-scum read (largely because of reducing her posting to prod-dodging and continued lack of contribution) -- Zdenek has given a few posts that we need to look over to re-evaluate that slot. Nobody seems to want to stay in the hasdfgas/ABR/Magua slot for long, so that slot is still null for now. My experience with Magua is that we should be able to evaluate the slot as soon as he's caught up?

We're going to read over that pile of players in the null tier some more today (unless people insist on ending the day pointlessly early).

We still have some suspicions of Tyene and Minimum, but can't escape the fact that the events of day 1 make them both look better.

~ Zar.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Catching up today ...

[Staeg]

Staeg, did you suspect Stefan when you voted for him, or did you not?

No, I didn't - I had a weak townread on him, but it seemed like the best thing to do at the time with the deadline close and all.

Also, nacho, do tell how I can defend against "bad interactions"

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Staeg, did you suspect Stefan when you voted for him, or did you not?

No, I didn't - I had a weak townread on him, but it seemed like the best thing to do at the time with the deadline close and all.

Also, nacho, do tell how I can defend against "bad interactions"

"Bad interactions? What the fuck are you even talking about, bad interactions?"

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Staeg, did you suspect Stefan when you voted for him, or did you not?

No, I didn't - I had a weak townread on him, but it seemed like the best thing to do at the time with the deadline close and all.

Also, nacho, do tell how I can defend against "bad interactions"

"Bad interactions? What the fuck are you even talking about, bad interactions?"

[Staeg]

Pretty much everything I've seen as an accusation against me is "bad interactions with bvoigt" and sometimes a bit of "feels off".

[kortul]

That was a lot of solid work from Pless. My town read on him improved. I am not going to argue with his views, since the interpretations are based on the initial reaction, experience, previous interactions and games, matching style of play and logic, etc, so if we both will be alive as the game progresses, with time his understanding of me should improve.

Pless, just don't forget that i replaced in and was rereading until the end of Day 1, that's why there were no previous discussions on most of the players, until i started doing the ISO's on those with wagons, in a middle of reread.

[Plums Yo Mamma]

Then start doing more shit so people feel scared to call you scum. I didn't realize you were in the game until fairly recently, and that's a bad thing because you're one of those people that I like. Put the fear into those scumfuck bastards and make them call other people scum so you can eat them alive, all of this "I don't know how to defend myself" just brings death closer to you.

(kortul is scum)

[Shadow1psc]

Kortul still scums it up, but that hilarity from Saporerint is too delicious.

Shinori, you've pretty much claimed watcher at this point, why dance around this? Why all the hoopla if you're just going to resolve to not say anything? You've painted the target on your back for no reason (we're not making the decision to jailkeep publicly, not by any stretch). The only reason I could see for this is if you want to gamble on their being a doctor (it seems the scum fear one), but I could royally screw that up anyway.

As Benmage I believe originally proposed, we should take our strongest 2-5 town reads (5 being a pool maybe too large) and everyone should privately pitch in a vote there. I think 2 makes it too narrow, and possibly easy for scum to swing it and shoot the person they all did not vote for, and five also brings about the same distinct possibility. So somewhere in 3-4 lies our answer, I believe.

[Shadow1psc]

I should clarify I have no knowledge of the composition of the scum team(s), but better safe than sorry if there's just one (there's currently no hard evidence to the contrary). I'm still wanting to assume multiball though, in which case having a pool of 3 candidates is probably fine.

[Saporerint]

Yesterday Faraday encouraged me to PM him whatever I would post first, and he'd OK'd this by morning:

1. After seeing Shadow's claim, I asked the Mod for clarification of one of our abilit(ies).

2. The Mod responded in a manner consistent with my prior understanding (which created an apparent unresolved discrepancy).

3. I told the Mod thanks.

Then I realized that my confusion may have been based on how I had interpreted the active-ness of my role.

4. I asked the Mod how he was operationalizing "active" vs. "passive."

5. The Mod clarified that it depended upon whether a player used his ability on selected players.

6. [Something similar to what I posted in this thread.]

7. The Mod clarified, resolving the apparent discrepancy.

- Iec

[Shadow1psc]

This would flip as 'Seacore, Victarion Greyjoy member of the 'I'm fucking badass' club. and Fucking Awesome Pirate' won the game pregame. As you can see the Rolename may not always reveal the full nature of the ability.

Ability notation, (A) = Active, (P) = Passive, (F) = Factional.

Explain how this did not answer your question right away.

[Regfan]

Pless, I'll print out your analysis and read it over on the way to work tomorrow, will let you know what I agree/disagree with about it then. Not understanding Ices conversation with Faraday, the context given really is super vague, think it's probably just best to leave the slot until tomorrow and then get a full-claim and a more detailed explanation. Oh and Starbuck seems to have been posting elsewhere but not in this game the last few days despite Faraday sending out 'Day started' PM's.

(Kortul isn't scum)

[Shadow1psc]

(Kortul isn't scum)

I really don't get that feeling, but this is obviously going to have to wait a couple days to resolve anyway.

As far as Jailkeep candidates, should we all try to find a majority list to agree on? As much as I think Shinori played rather ridiculously, I've seen worse and obviously he should be on the list. I'd like to put my name forward for obvious reasons.

[Regfan]

Think it's better if we don't put forward lists and instead just have everyone jailkeep vote a strong town read, it'll do the same thing but provide more uncertainty for scum on who they can and can't kill safely. Also you being jailkept means you being roleblocked and we don't want that.

[Saporerint]

Explain how this did not answer your question right away.

I totally did not notice those labels until going back to check my PM just now. I could have sworn my PM didn't have anything like that. It does have labels, though.

(Faraday did not allude to the labels' existence during our back-and-forth.)

- Iec

[Zdenek]

You're really wrong on this read. You really really are. I would bet almost anything she's town. I suggest stepping back and re-reading her ISO later on, you'll find that her scumhunting, demeanor and play is actually incredibly townie despite her mind-changes on a few people. Her paranoia about scum in the strong players is super genuine and the manner of her pointing out the Feysal multiball 'slip' as well as Ices PM-posting 'slip' are extremely town.

I disagree. I think that she is attempting to seem town by doing things that she thinks are townie, but that she is being disingenuous. For instance, her demanding and the retracting the demand for snowstorms partner to claim. There's also,

There is nothing wrong with stating who we'd like to be our nominal Jon Snow, but I disagree with attempts to direct actions on N1.

I agree with the Totally Anonymous Head of the furry critter re: Shinori and redFF. Town guns pointed this way please and thank you.

First saying that she disagrees with attempts to direct night actions and she directs them.

do try to make sure to iron out that hydra dissonance. It can be quite bothersome.

Adding a bit more to what Regfan said about Pandora being town: moreso than Shadoweh revealing identities, I believe that Quilford's post in straight contradiction of what she had done (defending Feysal followed by voting Feysal) is a towntell.

She complains about hydra dissonance and then calls it a town-tell. Personally, anything that I think is a town-tell, I'd be quite happy to see coming from anyone because then I could evaluate it to decide if it's genuine or if it's being faked.

So I'm not quite sure why she finds it bothersome, and I think that she's pretending to find it bothersome because hydra-dissonance is a townie thing to complain about.

As far as Tierce's comment about strong players goes,

Mark my words--there is scum among the strong players in this game, and they are hiding in the numbers of townreads (probably to foster paranoia, to which I say whelp, too late, suffering from it since Yesterday).

I don't place much stock in it because the same sentiment was voiced earlier by Minimum.

I really think there are scum among the widely trusted strong players, though, because all the weaker players/easier lynches keep doing stuff that looks town.

Replacing Iece's mispost into his explanation we get:

4. I asked the Mod how he was operationalizing "active" vs. "passive."

5. The Mod clarified that it depended upon whether a player used his ability on selected players.

6. I assume I don't have an active ability, correct?

7. The Mod clarified, resolving the apparent discrepancy.

I don't buy it.

I still need to read PlessZar's posts.

[kortul]

Yesterday Faraday encouraged me to PM him whatever I would post first, and he'd OK'd this by morning:

1. After seeing Shadow's claim, I asked the Mod for clarification of one of our abilit(ies).

By yesterday do you mean the day 1, or Sunday? Ie which of Shadow claims prompted you to ask mod for clarification (and, most important, why?)?

[Dolorous Edd]

Jail Shinori.

Iec claim.

Lynch Bvoigt.

End day.

Doc on Shadow.

[Shadow1psc]

Jail Shinori.

Iec claim.

Lynch Bvoigt.

End day.

Doc on Shadow.

This is bad and you should feel bad.

[MagnaofIllusion]

A bvoigt vote would be here if we were not waiting for Magua to

stop trolling

catch up.

Now that Shadow1 has claimed a result inconsistent with bvoigt’s Vig claim I’m more than happy to have him eat rope today.

I’ll be sending my Jail PM to Eddard right after posting this.

I’m suspicious of those who immediately voted Bvoigt today without any input from Shadow1. That’s Dol Edd and Staeg. And really looking at Staeg’s ISO I would go with him first.

On the topic of deaths – I think as claims play out down the line we can judge what makes sense from the “Why did the ostensibly Powerless Masons die” perspective.

Shin’s sort-almost-a-claim makes my head hurt from a “is that good play” perspective.

--

Does he give them pre-made? Does he hand them upon request? Are the roles you can fake-claim pre-given to you?

Others have tackled this but to be explicitly clear –

In the past when it wasn’t an open character set-up (not AFFC) Eddard games have given the scum team safe names (I had Hodor in clash for Badass Pirate Victarion) and players could request fake-claims with flavor for any role they wanted at will.

--

@Dol Edd

– why exactly did Alex choose to leave your hydra?

MoI hammer of DCL makes it unlikely that he is scum with him. DCL got pissed that he was hammered. Not really sure why? The dude put himself at L-1, what the hell do you expect when you vote yourself, and then get mad you were chosen?

In all fairness that’s a pretty weak reason to clear me. If scum don’t have Daytalk I could see DCL being just as pissed that he got hammered and his “self-vote” gambit wasn’t allowed to possibly play out. Pretty null item, really.

--

In ASOS, LMP and I, a scum team of 2 had day-talk. I don't think that the main scum team did, but I could be wrong.

I’ll have to review Clash … I don’t think we had Daytalk (and same with the Lannisters) but I need to be sure.

The Starks as a whole did not have Daytalk in ASOS. Robb Stark and Greywind did have private QT to themselves with Daytalk.

--

I still really think that Staeg is scum.

I agree.

I’m going out on a limb in what you know – Staeg also targeted bvoigt yesterday and thus might well be a Scum Watcher role aligned with bvoigt

--

This can't be the case due to shadow's result.

Your inside knowledge is showing. Why can’t bvoigt be a Serial Killer whose Kill is Factional and who has other Passive abilities again? Oh that’s right … because he is in your QT.

--

I want everyone to stop and put their hands up if they think they see something here.

I want this dead. Badly. ASAP.

Yes, agreed.

--

Going to do some looking at how wagons rose and fell (specifically in relation to both DCL and bvoigt) and then look at some ISOs after.

[Saporerint]

I mean Sunday (meatworld yesterday). Shadow's results claim D2 is what prompted me to ask the Mod for clarification, specifically the distinction between roleblocked and null results. D1 (i.e., after getting my role PM) I had asked for clarifications about an ability. One of those clarifications appeared at odds with Shadow's D2 claim.

It is now clear that I am an idiot (even more than I thought, given what Shadow pointed out), and there was no discrepancy.

- Iec

EDIT: Sapo and I have sent in our jailkeep already.

[BBmolla]

MoI for once I actually like what you're saying. Staeg can be scum.

[MagnaofIllusion]

So looking at Day One wagons (and just wagon movement, not at the underlying ISOs) and making an assumption that DCL and bvoigt are not the same faction -

Benmage, Pandora and Feysal all look pretty darn solid not likely scum. Their wagon positioning / how others go at them looks very Pro-Town.

Sapo, Mockingjaye and Staeg all look very bad. Sapo looks possible as a partner for either player and Mockingjaye / Staeg look like very strong bvoigt parnters.

Also a large number of players look like good bets to be unlikely Stannis regardless so I have a pretty strong PoE list on the off chance this is Single-ball.