Micro 54: Slightly More Vengeful GAME OVER

[guille2015]

Well, I can't really believe it now can I.

If this is the case then Looking back at how people have been voting and accusing could identify if they knew that there was not a god father.

[Maruchan]

unfortunately UNVOTE: shos I too believe his godfather assumption was genuine, and scum wouldn't be in the dark about that so he's just idiot town. -.-.

VOTE: Maestro

y u so gud guille?

[guille2015]

y u so gud guille?

Because I'm a giant robot.

Maestro, do you agree that Sho town-slipped?

[T-Bone]

Abaddon replaces Om of the Nom.

[Maestro]

Hmmm...I don't know. I need to reread how it happened.

[Maruchan]

Maestro and om/grump?

[Maestro]

Nope. Not Scum.

[shos]

You guys just don't read my posts right?

here's some setup specs for you, IN CASE THERE IS NO GODFATHER.

D1:
6 players.
we lynch one scum - they vengekill a townie -> D2: 4 players, 1 scum 3 town.
we lynch one town - they vengekill: a townie->we lost; a scum->same as above. chances to not lost - 3/5=

0.4

D2:
4 players
we lynch one scum - we win. chance: 25%.
we lynch one town - he vengekills; a townie - we lost, a scum - we win. chance to not lost - 0.25+0.75*1/3=

0.5

.

Now assume that we nolynch D1. then..

D2:
5 players - 2 scum, 3 town.
we lynch scum - vengekills - D3 we're at 2v1
we lynch town - vengekills - chance not to lose is

0.5

which leads to same as above

D3:
3 players, 2v1.
we lynch. scum - we win - chance 1/3
we lynch town - he vengekills - chance 0.5 to win. overall chance to win - 1/3+2/3*0.5=

2/3

~~~

that's the pure math of this game. compare the bolded to bolded, the italicized to italicized. there is literally NO REASON FOR US TO LYNCH ANYONE TODAY.
now look, deadline is tomorrow. so - either we nolynch, or we lynch maestro and cross our fingers realy, really good, since the odds are against us.

[shos]

actually the odds to not lose after D1 (or D2 in the NL option) are higher mathematically, I made a mistake. first case: it's 1/3+0.4*2/3=0.6, second case is 2/5+3/5*0.5=0.7, still better to NL.

[guille2015]

I ran the numbers and got a 30% win vs 47% if between Lynching and no lynching and following through randomly. Still, we get a better chance by nolynching. However, I have my thoughts. First of all, the votes and the targets are not random. That in itself should change things, because if we go for the noLynch. then we get the minimum amount of information.

I would suggest the following. We do lynch, but if the lynched person is town, then that person

does not

Venge kill. By this method we maximize our chances of Lynching Scum while minimizing our chances of loosing on day 1. It also gives us reads about the votes placed on the lynched person. Then we enter day two with 3 townies and 2 Mafia.

Consider though that it is more advantages to enter day two with 3 townies and 1 mafia obtained when the lynched town kills a mafia.

[ImJadenYuki]

oh.

UNVOTE: MAESTRO.

hur le dur

[shos]

VOTE: maestro
I forgot that the lynchee can choose not to kill.

if the town chooses the lynch we actually have a chance to lynch scum, if we NL then 0 of course. guille is town obviously for that.

so I officially support that we lynch and if we mislynch then it's a nokill.

I don't understand how ImJadenYuki unvoted after that post. that slot might be maestro's partner. anyway, lynch maestro ahoy; and maestro, I don't care what you feel, think or whatever regarding our last game - if you are town, do NOT SHOOT.

[Maruchan]

I ran the numbers and got a 30% win vs 47% if between Lynching and no lynching and following through randomly. Still, we get a better chance by nolynching. However, I have my thoughts. First of all, the votes and the targets are not random. That in itself should change things, because if we go for the noLynch. then we get the minimum amount of information.

I would suggest the following. We do lynch, but if the lynched person is town, then that person

does not

Venge kill. By this method we maximize our chances of Lynching Scum while minimizing our chances of loosing on day 1. It also gives us reads about the votes placed on the lynched person. Then we enter day two with 3 townies and 2 Mafia.

Consider though that it is more advantages to enter day two with 3 townies and 1 mafia obtained when the lynched town kills a mafia.

^^

we nolynch and scum (if whoever has been least active, there are 2 of them is not scum), kills the inactive, and we get literally NO useful information, and are in the same spot as today. this game isn't pure math, we can't go 1+2=MARUCHAN IS SCUM LYNCH HIM FOR THE WIN>

we have to use our brains a bit unfortunately, and therefore, pure math you can't account for humans into the equation so your numbers are all already fucked up.

[shos]

Maru, have you read the post you quoted?
as I said, the numbers are indeed in favor of a NL; however, that is not what guille suggested, and what he did suggest is ever better.

[shos]

eh nvm you're already voting maestro. you still town >_>


we need someone to hammer quickly before deadline. maestro, I believe tha if you are town, even you should do that if you can ><

[guille2015]

Maru chan not understanding. Still voting for Maestro. I can see him as town.

IJY unvotes Maestro. So, IJK what have you learned in your research. Lets hear it.

[shos]

just be realllly quick, since deadline is in less than a day

[shos]

in fact there's a tad more han 8 hours till deadline. we need to hammer maestro quickly.

[Maestro]

Wow, this is hilarious...I'm not going to self-hammer shos. If need be, deadline will be my hammer.

@Mod: How long do I have to decide who to Vengekill? I'll be at rehearsal for at least a few hours after this time, but might be able to come back and PM/post about it while on break.

[Maestro]

Oh wait, yeah: everyone convince me not to Vengekill shos. Go.

[guille2015]

the hell..?

you'r driving me insane, I'm going to sleep. go read the setup, we're all vengeful except the godfather.

Sooo...this game is indeed slightly more vengeful. if I understand correctly, ANYONE who gets lynched gets a vengekill, right? that's...odd.

@mod:
I assumed that the mafia are godfather and goon, am I correct?

if there is no godfather, my world will crumble, lol. this setup, without a godfather, is horribly pro scum, I think. I mean, having one extra player from a reg vengeful doesn't matter at all since well, the mafia are vengeful too, so we start in mylo, and the next day is guaranteed to be mylo as well if we have a lynch today(that is, if we even get a next day). so removing the godfather makes it even harder for town, and this means we're gonna have a real challenge. so really, what advantage does town have now?

These posts and his play are consistent with him thinking that there is a godfather in this game. Mafia would have known that there is no godfather and would play with everyone assuming that there is no godfather. This does not appear to be a fake reaction because the conversation came rather subtly, which is very hard for mafia to pull off.

Additionally, There is a risk to making the vigkill today. On day two, even if we mislynch, the lynched townie has the oportunity to shoot mafia, thus continuing the game for a final day 3.

[Maruchan]

Oh wait, yeah: everyone convince me not to Vengekill shos. Go.

vengekill him.

[Abaddon]

Hello all. I'm going to be working on catching up over the next few hours

[Maestro]

Oh wait, yeah: everyone convince me not to Vengekill shos. Go.

vengekill him.

Cool!

[shos]

Phoneposting:
Maestro is clearly not reading the game. If he is town and vengekills, probably ties with pmyst on worst plsyer onsite -.-