The Dresden Files - Early Days Mafia (Bastard) - Over

[Shamrock]

VOTE: MagnaOfIllusion

We might as well get this out of the way.

[Shamrock]

ICENinja's first post is more dumb than scummy to me, but his Konowa vote is omgwtf.

However, I like this vote more:

VOTE: Jason

[Shamrock]

@FLP: Konowa vote was omgwtf because it felt incredibly forced to me.

Shamrock and Pidgy were the ones who came in and jumped on it, scum lies in those two. I am sure of it.

vote:Shamrock

Pidgy can die tomorrow

Uhh, please show me where I said I voted you for putting ICENinja at L-1?

Shamrock: Why join the modwaggon before you even knew if a lynch was possible, and to test the waters one vote seemed enough.

...

[Shamrock]

ICENinja, why did you single Konowa out of all the people who voted you on page 1 without giving a reason? You mention that he was random voting first but I don't see what that has to do with anything, the other votes on you were clearly non-random. So why Konowa over, say, Zdenek or Sixty or GreyICE?

[Shamrock]

prodded, will post later today

[Shamrock]

ICENinja's Grey vote is pretty consistent with how he's been playing. His posts are all really dumb but I have trouble seeing scum motivation behind them.

CKD's Grey vote, on the other hand, is actually scummy. The daytalk thing is an absurdly weak thing to jump on.

Yes, I know this is a double standard.

VOTE: curiouskarmadog

[Shamrock]

Also, why are people (and not just ICENinja) just instinctively believing Jason's claim? Is the idea of fakeclaims really new to you people?

[Shamrock]

Also, why are people (and not just ICENinja) just instinctively believing Jason's claim? Is the idea of fakeclaims really new to you people?

interesting, so you think we should lynch him today anyway...not even try to see if it is true. it is not like he is claiming a doc that we cant really verify. there is potential here to maybe get some info. I dont think he could fake this. but I want to see. I think this is a plausible claim. I not sure if the role has anything to do with alignment, but if it is town, it could be useful. Sham, you don’t think the role could be useful?

How do you expect testing his claim to go, exactly?

"Jason, are you in a QT with the dead guy?"
"Yeah."

???

FWIW, though, I'm less interested in lynching Jason now than I was earlier.

[Shamrock]

prod dodging i'll get to this tomorrow hnnng

[Shamrock]

Sorry for neglecting this game so much - I'm starting to think that large games might not be my thing, but I like this theme so I'm not gonna flake. Just gonna drop some thoughts on what's going on because there's way too much stuff that I haven't really participated in.

I've been deferring judgment on GreyICE because I have a really terrible track record at reading this kind of rageposty player, but while I still don't see any merit to the angles ICENinja is pushing, I'm increasingly sympathetic to Sixty's arguments. There just doesn't seem to be anything to his arguments for ICENinja being scum apart from stupid things that happened on the first few pages (lol) and the fact that the scumslip argument was dumb, which it was, but I think it makes ICENinja VI rather than scum, which is consistent with all of his other behavior today. I looked over his ISO, and if there's something more to his argument for ICENinja scum, I don't see it.

I also still dislike CKD's hop on the GreyICE wagon. It looks incredibly forced to me, although honestly I could see them being scum together if CKD thought that GreyICE really did slip and that he had no choice but to bus there.

Kimor seems more interested in defending himself than hunting scum. His votes have pretty weak reasoning and he's just blatantly ignoring a lot of the major wagons. Could be scum.

I think I am willing to lynch any of the above three today. Leaving vote on CKD for now as I think he is the most promising.

Don't understand suspicion of sword. Don't understand why there are still votes on ICENinja and Jason when there are so many better lynches available right now.

[Shamrock]

GreyICE really isn't behaving like someone who actually cares whether ICENinja is lynched.

[Shamrock]

Although GreyICE is screaming to the game at large what ICENinja is scum and needs to be lynched, he doesn't really seem to care what any individual players think of ICENinja. I posted an extremely wishy-washy appraisal of his case on ICENinja in my catchup post, in which I called his case weak but clearly invited further explanation (or attack). He completely ignored it and instead has been locked in a pointless argument with Sixty over Kimor, of all players.

He has also ignored other players who were dismissive of his case. Most obviously, when Sixty attacked his case as a "screamo [which] went way over the line from barely believable to cheesy", he first ignored it, and then when pushed further, attacked Sixty instead of showing why his ICENinja case was good/being misrepresented.

This behavior just doesn't look like it could come from town who actually thinks ICENinja is scum.

UNVOTE: curiouskarmadog
VOTE: GreyICE

[Shamrock]

The points that Shamrock has raised seem good on the surface, but I don't actually think that they are a fair representation of GreyICE's play.

Hmm, why not?

[Shamrock]

Prod dodge while we wait for a full claim...

[Shamrock]

I honestly think we should just ignore Klick here on the basis that he is Klick.

[Shamrock]

Zero percent of Klick's claim makes sense. If he had a guilty and a nightkill he would not have bothered claiming the guilty. He likes pulling stupid gambits but he is not a complete retard.

I honestly have no idea what he was hoping to accomplish here as any alignment. I have tried to think about it from the perspective of town, mafia, and SK and nothing makes sense. I just don't see the upside.

We should probably just lynch GreyICE.

[Shamrock]

Zero percent of Klick's claim makes sense.

If he had a guilty and a nightkill he would not have bothered claiming the guilty.

He likes pulling stupid gambits but he is not a complete retard.

I honestly have no idea what he was hoping to accomplish here as any alignment. I have tried to think about it from the perspective of town, mafia, and SK and nothing makes sense. I just don't see the upside.

We should probably just lynch GreyICE.

I already went over this.

So you're claiming full retard, or what?

[Shamrock]

Yes, I could have phrased that more politely, sorry.

But I don't believe you, and even if I'm wrong to not believe you, it doesn't matter because you can just kill Thor tonight, so whatever.

[Shamrock]

Could Thor be a GreyICE buddy and Klick be scum from an opposite faction

I guess it depends on how ICENinja answers Thor's question.

[Shamrock]

What do you think his scum motivation is for claiming yesterday?

Is he just hoping for a "this is too stupid to come from scum" reaction?

[Shamrock]

Also, I actually did see a scum dayrolecop once <_<

[Shamrock]

You are a strong townread, so I'm inclined to sheep you on this.

Just to be 100% clear, you're saying that you think Klick's flavor claim is truthful but can't say either way on his power?

[Shamrock]

Well... are they the same color as your role?

[Shamrock]

Also, something weird is that Bianca flipped as a part of the Unseelie Cabal. Since when is Bianca buddies with the Winter Court? Am I misremembering the first books?

[Shamrock]

The fact that Bianca is aligned with the Unseelie when she's a vampire is just weird though.

I've already said that Ninja is a townread for me. Do you think he was busing?

[Shamrock]

The credibility of the Thor investigation is pretty much shot, and given sword's information, a Klick lynch is really the only thing that makes sense at this juncture.

VOTE: Klick

L-1

[Shamrock]

I did find CKD scummy Day 1, but what bothers me now is that if CKD is blue, that means that all three of the biggest wagons towards the end of D1 were on blue scum.

Vote Count 1.16 - As of post 557

GreyIce (9) - ICENinja, curiouskarmadog, Sixty, Shamrock, Albert B. Rampage, Shmugen, kortul, Thor665, StefanB
Thor665 (4) - Konowa, Zdenek, pidgey, Klick
curiouskarmadog (4) - fatlikepig, greenknight, GreyICE, jasonT1981
jasonT1981 (1) - sword_of_omens

I guess it's not impossible - and it's hilarious if it's true - but I'm not sure how plausible it is.

Why is pidgey scum? Just for parking his vote on Jason?

[Shamrock]

You may have a point. Actually, thinking back on it a bit more, CKD-blue

would

explain why GreyICE was parking his vote for so long on the clearly immobile/dismantled ICENinja wagon rather than switching to CKD, which was more lively-looking and would have been an entirely plausible hop.

I'll read up on this as well as on pidgey (who I haven't been paying much attention to, tbh) in a bit.

[Shamrock]

CKD's, GreyICE's, and Thor's actions all really do make perfect sense if they are scum together.
- Grey started attacking CKD long before his wagon or the Kimor/Thor wagon took off and while an ICENinja lynch still looked plausible; he wasn't aware that their whole team would be under heavy fire when he started busing. So it made sense for him to bus when he did.
- Grey was pushing CKD while still voting ICENinja and never jumped on the CKD wagon except as a desperation move at the end of the day, in spite of the fact that was clearly showing much stronger signs of life than the ICENinja wagon and it would have been plausible to jump on from the professed strength of his read.
- CKD was busing GreyICE because, as Sixty said, he thought GreyICE actually

had

scumslipped and because, again, he started doing it before the wagons on any of their members had built.
- So none of this seemed suicidal when they started doing it, it only became that way when the wagons shifted.
- CKD was minimizing the case on Kimor.
- Thor, as soon as he replaced in and saw the state of the game, started spamming "CKD is town CKD is town CKD is town" without explanation. Which makes sense, because clearly one of CKD or Grey was getting lynched at that point.

Yeah, I'm on board with this.

VOTE: CKD

Pidgey analysis to follow in a bit.

[Shamrock]

A glance over pidgey's ISO suggests that yeah, he isn't scumhunting, he's just raging, asking stupid questions, and dropping a wall-o-reads once in a while. Also, this is a bit :

I hope klick is town and for now im willing to believe it. Though if he is, not sure if all his powers would work in a non bastard way.

Okay, he gets to be redscum and can die tomorrow.

[Shamrock]

Exactly

three or at least three?

[Shamrock]

Any ability that would tell you

exactly

how many scum were on the wagon would be so gamebreaking that I have trouble believing MoI would include it in a game. (In this case, if CKD flipped scum, it would confirm me, you, sword, pidgey, AND Sixty as town.) It's more likely either at least three or a lie.

[Shamrock]

If it's something you do during the day then you can wait until tomorrow - CKD is more likely to be the last on a team and, by my judgment, more likely to flip scum overall.

[Shamrock]

Although I don't understand how you have a townread on me and it's making me uneasy, but whatever.

[Shamrock]

kortul - when CKD was attacking Grey for the "slip", people hadn't really started pointing out how dumb it was yet. That didn't really happen until later down the page/the next page. So I really do think it's quite plausible that he saw it and was like "shit gotta bus".

Also, I totally forgot about Jason's claim. He probably ought to get around to using that at some point.

pedit: have you played with Klick before? He just kind of... does things sometimes.

[Shamrock]

I just finished a game with Klick where he self-hammered as town in a "1v1" because he was so convinced MoI was scum (MoI was town). Also, this game is rather infamous (very short): http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=23446

[Shamrock]

ABR, if there's something making CKD town that we're not seeing, what is it?

[Shamrock]

Okay...

Is there someone else you'd rather lynch?

[Shamrock]

To be fair, Jason is a VERY possible blue-scum if CKD isn't.

Spoiler: Selected Jason/GreyICE quotes

Jason counterwagon could not actually be scummier.

What the hell is up with this [Jason] wagon?

It literally makes no sense to me.

OK... I don't realize how scummy GrayICE is. Can you please, just to humor me... post bullet points as to why he is scum outside of the QT thing?

(No follow-up on the above)

EBWOP

Kimor is very scummy*

Why?

(No follow-up on the above either)

Still not a fan of the GrayICE wagon. I think there are better lynches today. Albert is not a lynch today by looks of things. CKD has been peaking my interest recently. I would much rather lynch him than GrayICE.

with that said

vote: CKD

You would

also

benefit from reading our posts in isolation.

I have, I see no actual case from you on Gray...

Just rambling at him on a few things.

(There was a pretty clear case by this point)

(I also don't really understand why Sixty finds his claim so unquestionable but we can argue that Tomorrow if CKD flips town)

[Shamrock]

quick post:

i assume ckd's flip means that he is on both scum teams. this means that the setup is probably 13 : 2+ckd : 2+ckd (unless there is a sk or something too). if these assumptions are correct then there is only one red scum left. after ckd's flip i read some things and was pretty confident that the final scum was either pidgey or abr. pidgey's claim makes him unlikely to be scum so i'm pretty confident it's abr.

VOTE: abr

also anyone who thinks jason is scum after yesterday is stupid.

[Shamrock]

So, Shmu 11:3:(1):4?

With the one being on both scum teams, seven total?

this seems v. unlikely given lack of kills (would imply that both red AND blue kills were blocked...?)

[Shamrock]

take your vote of ABR.. he isn't scum.

is this based on whatever iceninja's told you or are you seeing something i'm not?

[Shamrock]

jason makes literally no sense as scum because he was ckd's feeble attempt at a counterwagon yesterday

i don't understand why people are suspicious of flp but i can reread him later

[Shamrock]

:dealwithit: to the haters. We'd like to point out that pidgey was the one who said "3 kills again!?" D3 when there were only two kills N1.

Beyond that, we're getting kind of impatient for a massclaim, or at least someone to start answering a few of the questions that don't need to be outstanding.

So do you think pidgey is lying about his claim, or do you think it is a scum ability? I don't see how he can be scum with that claim, perhaps you can enlighten us all?

[Shamrock]

UNVOTE: ABR

Dammit, that means one of my townreads is wrong.

[Shamrock]

VOTE: kortul

[Shamrock]

Can someone tell me why kortul is town?

[Shamrock]

... What?

Unless there are bastard mechanics coming in to play (which, to be perfectly honest, my role flavor left room for bastard mechanics) then Klick is probably who he claims to be. Based on knowledge of the series, I'm inclined to believe that Georgia is sane.

?????

Why did he say the above if he received a result of "not guilty"?

[Shamrock]

Oops, you're right.

[Shamrock]

Ok, flp is definitely town regardless of the veracity of the sensor result.

kortul was a PoE target for me; with pidgey and ABR off the table he was the only one that I didn't really have a read on at all. But I guess I'd be willing to swing Shmugen today - the main thing making me think Shmu was town was the fact that he jumped on CKD early D3 before it was clear that CKD was going to be the lynch, but I guess it's possible he just saw which way the wind was blowing.

[Shamrock]

I don't think there's any need to use it to confirm FLP's alignment, but what you could do is confirm that the sensor result is true by asking Konowa, Jason, and whichever of Shmu/kortul we don't lynch today whether they share a WC.

Unless anyone can think of something better to do with it.

[Shamrock]

Getting claims from the people

not

cleared by the sensor result might be a good idea. Not sure there is any reason for me/Sixty/sword to be claiming right now unless we start having a reason to doubt the sensor results.

[Shamrock]

Sword -- jason-scum doesn't really make sense. Look at the way CKD pushed him at the beginning of yesterday. Would CKD-scum, coming into a 2:9, begin by immediately trying to bus his buddy? I doubt it. Also, the way he's behaved today makes me think that his claim is legit.

[Shamrock]

I don't see how the final red could NOT be in Shmugen/kortul unless ICENinja is non-sane or my read on Konowa is horrifyingly off (I really don't think it is)

As of Shmugen's last few posts I now want to lynch him more than kortul, so.

[Shamrock]

What is your rolename/flavor justification for your ability Shmu?

[Shamrock]

I don't think the claim really makes any sense. And we already have a Bulletproof Miller flipped.

Anything we need to do before hammering?

[Shamrock]

The flavor suggests that it was probably CKD in wolf form using his strongman kill.

[Shamrock]

bah I should have stuck to my guns on kortul

[Shamrock]

VOTE: kortul

I received FLP's loverizer.

[Shamrock]

That was the question, yes.

I am Johnny Marcone, Honorable Vig. Each night I can kill someone. However, if I successfully kill a Town aligned player bad things happen. I have ethics. First time, I lose my vote for the follow Day. Second time, I commit suicide. I killed Thor. I shot at pidgey N3.

this is a shocking claim. im truly shocked by it.

it's not like you've been crumbing it since D2 or anything <_<

[Shamrock]

And I have no explanation for why pidgey is alive in that case. Which is confusing unless ABR does because the only unclaimed people left are me, Sixty, and ABR.

[Shamrock]

I love that the puppy managed to draw a wolf role.

Myself, I'm Michael Carpenter, Praying Knight, aka doctor. I protected Sixty Night 1 for being a townread and leader. I protected Konowa Night 2 in response to his vig softclaim. I protected Sixty again Night 3 for being obvious NK bait. I protected Sixty again Night 4 because I figured the scum would go "what doc would protect the same target twice in a row" (i would. its me.)

When I got my role I assumed I was a fake doctor because the description of the ability was filled with weasel words - saying I'll disrupt whatever harm I can rather than actually saying I'll block a kill - and because I misread the flavor and was under the impression that I prayed for them (but looking at it again it doesn't actually say that) but I guess I am probably legit because there doesn't seem to be any other explanation for the lack of kills unless the scum targeted Shmugen N3 (!?) and kortul's claim is real.

[Shamrock]

So...

Sixty - mason
kortul - joat
sword - super cop
FLP - joat/inventor
pidgey - oracle
Shamrock - doctor
Konowa - honorable vig
ABR - mason
jason - dead talky person

[Shamrock]

Hah, I would draw the one secret VT in a role madness game.

gg wp