Should a vig who shoots N1 be Modkilled?

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Yes or No?

Yes
7
4%
No
165
96%
 
Total votes : 172

Yosarian2
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Post Post #38  (isolation #0)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:14 pm

In post 16, DoomYoshi wrote:
In post 5, Tierce wrote:The point is, you're proposing something that no sensible player would ever do.


Exactly. No sensible player would ever shoot N1 OR shoot an innocent child, so they are equal.


A lot of people make the mathematical argument that a full vig should always shoot night zero because, in theory, a random vig shot improves the town's chances of winning in most games.

I don't agree with it, personally, I think the information cost is too high, but it's not irrational or necessarily anti-town.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #40  (isolation #1)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:19 pm

In post 33, chamber wrote:
In post 26, Llamarble wrote:Absolutely not; shooting N1 is usually their best move.
I wrote a couple paragraphs then realized I was just saying the exact same thing Hoopla did.

Can I see those 'vigs don't help winrate' stats? In addition to what Hoopla mentioned about some shots being used wrong, I'm guessing those games counted vigs as a significant town power role when balancing their setups, in which case the takeaway is closer to 'adding a vig and removing a cop doesn't change winrate much,' which I find believable. "Is cop or vig a stronger town PR?" is a much more reasonable question than 'are vigs pro-town.'


Highly suspect Vig is not only stronger than cop, but enough stronger that your question isn't actually all that good either.


Er; I can't agree with that. Cop is so much stronger then a vig. If a cop investigates two innocent people and then claims, he's already increase the town's chances of lynching correctly on every susequent day by somewhere between by, what, 30% and 100%. If a cop targets a scum, it's even better.

Cop targeting two town >> vig targeting two town

Cop targeting 1 scum and 1 town >> a vig targeting one scum and one town

Cop targeting two scum is probably about the same as a vig targeting two scum. Vig might be slightly better, but town really just wins either way.

And, of course, the third scenerio is by far the least likely of the three.

Vig is a role that probably increses town's odds of winning if played right, but it's no cop.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #45  (isolation #2)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:20 pm

In post 43, Llamarble wrote:
In post 40, Yosarian2 wrote:Cop targeting two town >> vig targeting two town

Cop targeting 1 scum and 1 town >> a vig targeting one scum and one town

Cop targeting two scum is probably about the same as a vig targeting two scum. Vig might be slightly better, but town really just wins either way.

1. One of the townies the vig shot is a townie the scum would have gotten to nightkill, but yes, the cop is definitely better here.
2. This is a slight win for the cop. The vig traded a lynch / NK cycle for a dead scum and a dead town. The cop will make sure the same thing happens and have the innocent going forward.
3. With cop the town will need to use 2 lynches on the scum whereas the vig essentially traded 1 lynch / NK cycle for 2 dead scum. Vig clearly wins here.

The cop comes out slightly ahead on these, but vigs are more robust:
If scum shoot a vig, the vig generally still can accomplish something that night.
Vigs are stronger claims since they can prove they did something when nobody else claims the shot.
Cop innocents can get shot before the cop gets to claim them.
A carelessly played cop can die with unclaimed, uncrumbed results.


The key thing to always keep in mind, though, is that about 75% of the time, any cop or vig is going to be targeting a townie at night. That is the most common result of any night targeting, just because there are so many more townies then anything else. Every time a cop targets a townie, it's a big help to the town; every time a vig targets a townie, it either hurts the town or, at best, fails to help the town. Hence, most of the time, cops will be much better for town then vigs.

Also, vigs tend to kill people who haven't claimed yet, unlike lynches, so they quite frequently take out other town power roles.

And when the vig gets a free mylo->lylo shot, that is an enormous win for town.


Having 1 cop-confirmed innocent in 4 player Mlyo is actually better then a 3 man lylo without a cop confirmed innocent, though. The cop still comes out ahead here, I think.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #56  (isolation #3)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 8:32 pm

In post 52, UberNinja wrote:Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum, if both are played somewhat competently, yet not perfectly optimally.


...

You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win, and a vig with 3 tonwie kills=almost automatic town loss, right?

The only way a cop can fail is if the scum kill him early.

Even a vig shooting well above average (say, he shoots 1 scum in 2 nights) is much less effective then a cop picking names out of a hat.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #75  (isolation #4)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 4:02 pm

In post 64, The Fonz wrote:
In post 58, Hoopla wrote:
In post 33, chamber wrote:Highly suspect Vig is not only stronger than cop, but enough stronger that your question isn't actually all that good either.


It's a decent question. Vigs significantly outperform Cops in 3:9 setups, but in 3:10's Cops are slightly outperforming Vigs. I think the larger the game, the more beneficial Cops are, perhaps up until a certain point (20+?) where having a Vig is probably better to cull numbers before people get bored of the game and can't use all the extra information anyway.


Odds vs evens. The vig in the 12p game gets what is effectively a free shot, and so at worst can confirm himself without costing the town a lynch. Since town only gets three mislynches, the one extra town kill is worth a lot more. The vig in the 13p game costs a lynch with the very first shot.



Also, since vigs are so incredibly swingy and random, they help the town a lot more in setups where town has a very low chance of winning. 3 v 9 setups are notoriously badly balanced in favor of scum and against the town; anything that adds a random factor can only help. I mean, even adding a SK to that setup seems to help the town, statistically, crazy as that is, because anything that makes those setups more random creates more ways for an otherwise mostly doomed town to luck out.

The more balanced a setup is, the more cop>vig.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #80  (isolation #5)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:10 pm

In post 78, Llamarble wrote:
In post 75, Yosarian2 wrote:
In post 64, The Fonz wrote:
In post 58, Hoopla wrote:
In post 33, chamber wrote:Highly suspect Vig is not only stronger than cop, but enough stronger that your question isn't actually all that good either.


It's a decent question. Vigs significantly outperform Cops in 3:9 setups, but in 3:10's Cops are slightly outperforming Vigs. I think the larger the game, the more beneficial Cops are, perhaps up until a certain point (20+?) where having a Vig is probably better to cull numbers before people get bored of the game and can't use all the extra information anyway.


Odds vs evens. The vig in the 12p game gets what is effectively a free shot, and so at worst can confirm himself without costing the town a lynch. Since town only gets three mislynches, the one extra town kill is worth a lot more. The vig in the 13p game costs a lynch with the very first shot.



Also, since vigs are so incredibly swingy and random, they help the town a lot more in setups where town has a very low chance of winning. 3 v 9 setups are notoriously badly balanced in favor of scum and against the town; anything that adds a random factor can only help. I mean, even adding a SK to that setup seems to help the town, statistically, crazy as that is, because anything that makes those setups more random creates more ways for an otherwise mostly doomed town to luck out.

The more balanced a setup is, the more cop>vig.

Vigs are swingy and random in the same way that extra lynches are swingy and random.
I think we just have a different notion of the relative value of a vigshot compared to a lynch.


Vigs more swingy and random then extra lynches. Extra lynches give information, slow down the game, and they don't kill town power roles or people who are confirmable. Plus, vigs are much less predictable, and are much more likely to shoot "that guy that everyone but the vig understands is obvtown". Vigs remove information and shorten the game. On the other hand, vigs are less prone to scum manipulation then the lynch, although that also means they're less likely to listen to pro-town advice. They tend to be a wild card in any game.

In any case, 1 cop investigaton > 1 extra lynch. 1 extra lynch > 1 vig kill.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #86  (isolation #6)  » Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:44 pm

While in theory vig is a good role, I do have to say that in practice, it is the town role I am least afraid of as scum, but I am absolutely terrified of vigs when I'm town. Too many bad experences.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #88  (isolation #7)  » Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:44 am

In post 87, Mr. Flay wrote:
In post 86, Yosarian2 wrote:While in theory vig is a good role, I do have to say that in practice, it is the town role I am least afraid of as scum, but I am absolutely terrified of vigs when I'm town. Too many bad experences.

I wonder if that has to do with "hero vigs" (I think I'm getting the gist of this term) who think "Yosscum can't hardly get lynched, better kill 'em!"...


It is worth mentioning that I designed the MAD mafia games partly to test my theory that vig powers, even really bad ones, just naturally tend to make normally perfectly rational pro-town people go completely crazy and be unable to resist acting in a really anti-town way. I think we can call that theory "confirmed".
Last edited by Yosarian2 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #90  (isolation #8)  » Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:49 am

In post 89, Mr. Flay wrote:Hahaha, oh man I remember somebody (ABR?) going complely nuclear on me for NO reason...


Yeah, ABR nuked the cop about 48 hours into the game. And yet it still went better then the first MAD mafia, at least you guys survived day 1 and killed a scum, lol.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #96  (isolation #9)  » Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:27 pm

In post 95, UberNinja wrote:
In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:
In post 52, UberNinja wrote:Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum, if both are played somewhat competently, yet not perfectly optimally.
...

You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win, and a vig with 3 tonwie kills=almost automatic town loss, right?

You do realize you forgot to read and respond to the entire sentence, right? (Hint: Three straight town vig targets is not somewhat competently.)

Next time, read/think before you post, Y2.


Um, I do think and read, thank you very much.

Are you a competent townie? Has there ever been a game when you voted for town 3 times in a row? I bet there has been. I know I have, I'm sure any townie has. There just aren't that many scum; most of the time, if you try to target a scum, you'll target a townie. That's just how the game works, "competent" or not.

Realistically, a competent townie is one who votes for scum somewhere between 33% and 50% of the time. At those odds, there are still going to be plenty of games where you shoot 2 or even 3 townies in a row, even if you know what you're doing.

And vig shots are usually less accurate then votes, in my experience, at least for night vigs.

Oh, I see Hoopla has already poked a hole in your brilliant plan of not claiming as a Cop in a Mini until Day 4.


Earlier I was talking about 2 investigations, which is pretty normal. A cop who waits until day 3 to claim (unless he's about to get lynched, or unless his n1 innocent is about to get lynched, or unless he catches a scum) will usually manage it; scum only get 2 kills by then, and they have 11 townies to pick from. Unless the cop drops cop tells, he has less then a 20% chance of getting nightkilled before day 3. (Of course, that's assuming that there's just one killing group. If there's also a vig, the cop might have to claim earlier, because the vig basically doubles the odds of the cop getting shot by night 3 if he doesn't claim.)

I'm not saying that's always the best option, but it certainly is a reasonable one. And if you do it, town is in great shape.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #109  (isolation #10)  » Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:00 pm

Not "lynched" 3 townies in a row as town, UN. Voted 3 townies in a row as town. The difference being that you don't actually control the lynch, so that's not a good analogy.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #113  (isolation #11)  » Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:42 pm

Oh, by the way UN, I knew I wasn't crazy.

Yosarian2 wrote:Are you a competent townie? Has there ever been a game when you voted for town 3 times in a row? I bet there has been.


The very first game I played with you, mini 1372, you voted for three townies in a row (Kanye, then Parama, then me, then back to kanye.) So yes, you have voted 3 townies in a row as town.

I don't know why you're trying to make this theory discussion into something personal anyway.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie

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Post Post #124  (isolation #12)  » Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:36 am

The point is that if you think a vig is going to be right 100% of the time in the long run you don't actually understand how mafia works.
I want us to win just for Yos' inevitable rant alone. -CrashTextDummie


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