Should a vig who shoots N1 be Modkilled?

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Yes or No?

Yes
7
4%
No
165
96%
 
Total votes : 172

UberNinja
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Post Post #37  (isolation #0)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 4:09 pm

I've only ever been a vig once. I shot Night 1. I hit scum Night 1. Am I a systemic anomaly?

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Post Post #52  (isolation #1)  » Thu Nov 15, 2012 6:52 pm

In post 43, Llamarble wrote:
In post 40, Yosarian2 wrote:Cop targeting two town >> vig targeting two town

Cop targeting 1 scum and 1 town >> a vig targeting one scum and one town

Cop targeting two scum is probably about the same as a vig targeting two scum. Vig might be slightly better, but town really just wins either way.

1. One of the townies the vig shot is a townie the scum would have gotten to nightkill, but yes, the cop is definitely better here.
2. This is a slight win for the cop. The vig traded a lynch / NK cycle for a dead scum and a dead town. The cop will make sure the same thing happens and have the innocent going forward.
3. With cop the town will need to use 2 lynches on the scum whereas the vig essentially traded 1 lynch / NK cycle for 2 dead scum. Vig clearly wins here.

The cop comes out slightly ahead on these, but vigs are more robust:
If scum shoot a vig, the vig generally still can accomplish something that night.
Vigs are stronger claims since they can prove they did something when nobody else claims the shot.
Cop innocents can get shot before the cop gets to claim them.
A carelessly played cop can die with unclaimed, uncrumbed results.

And when the vig gets a free mylo->lylo shot, that is an enormous win for town.

Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum, if both are played somewhat competently, yet not perfectly optimally. Vigs do more damage both for good and for not-so-good, depending on how well they're played. The cop is just a less swingy role.

I think the takeaway here is that people who play cautiously and don't have confidence in their reads like cops more, and people who play strongly and have confidence in their reads like vigs more. Basically, I agree with you. And vigs are more exciting anyway.

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Post Post #95  (isolation #2)  » Sun Nov 18, 2012 4:58 am

In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:
In post 52, UberNinja wrote:Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum, if both are played somewhat competently, yet not perfectly optimally.
...

You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win, and a vig with 3 tonwie kills=almost automatic town loss, right?

You do realize you forgot to read and respond to the entire sentence, right? (Hint: Three straight town vig targets is not somewhat competently.)

Next time, read/think before you post, Y2.

Also, a cop staying alive for 3 nights, and having three townie investigations, all of which are among non-dead players, and then being able to claim on Day 4, is a statistical near-impossibility. I guess if you aren't thinking in terms of rational players playing a mind game, and were instead just thinking of numbers on a chalkboard, you might have a point. Otherwise, you're probably not going to have much luck with that.

Oh, I see Hoopla has already poked a hole in your brilliant plan of not claiming as a Cop in a Mini until Day 4.

In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:The only way a cop can fail is if the scum kill him early.

See Llamarble's post from earlier. There are downsides to a cop that a vig doesn't have.

In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:Even a vig shooting well above average (say, he shoots 1 scum in 2 nights) is much less effective then a cop picking names out of a hat.

Again, in a perfect world...


Never mind.

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Post Post #104  (isolation #3)  » Mon Nov 19, 2012 6:56 am

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:
In post 95, UberNinja wrote:
In post 56, Yosarian2 wrote:
In post 52, UberNinja wrote:Objectively speaking, they both do about the same amount of damage to scum, if both are played somewhat competently, yet not perfectly optimally.
...

You do realize that a cop with 3 innocent investigations in a mini-game=automatic town win, and a vig with 3 tonwie kills=almost automatic town loss, right?

You do realize you forgot to read and respond to the entire sentence, right? (Hint: Three straight town vig targets is not somewhat competently.)

Next time, read/think before you post, Y2.


Um, I do think and read, thank you very much.

Alright, if you say so.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:Are you a competent townie? Has there ever been a game when you voted for town 3 times in a row? I bet there has been.

If you can find an instance of that, I'll give you mad props. I lynch scum more often than town, and there's not many times I've lynched 3 scum in a row. I can count them on one hand. So if you find three town lynches in a row where I am on the wagon, I will be pretty shocked.

My games are in my sig.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote: I know I have, I'm sure any townie has. There just aren't that many scum; most of the time, if you try to target a scum, you'll target a townie. That's just how the game works, "competent" or not.

Again, if you say so. You have just lost the ability (if you ever had it) to think critically and make the plays that help town out in that X factor way. You're a logician, and if scum can be logical, they can evade your nose until kingdom come. Mix it up a little bit, Yos.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:Realistically, a competent townie is one who votes for scum somewhere between 33% and 50% of the time. At those odds, there are still going to be plenty of games where you shoot 2 or even 3 townies in a row, even if you know what you're doing.

My scum lynch rate is above 50%.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:And vig shots are usually less accurate then votes, in my experience, at least for night vigs.

My vig ratio is 100% scum actually.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:
Oh, I see Hoopla has already poked a hole in your brilliant plan of not claiming as a Cop in a Mini until Day 4.

Earlier I was talking about 2 investigations, which is pretty normal. A cop who waits until day 3 to claim (unless he's about to get lynched, or unless his n1 innocent is about to get lynched, or unless he catches a scum) will usually manage it; scum only get 2 kills by then, and they have 11 townies to pick from. Unless the cop drops cop tells, he has less then a 20% chance of getting nightkilled before day 3. (Of course, that's assuming that there's just one killing group. If there's also a vig, the cop might have to claim earlier, because the vig basically doubles the odds of the cop getting shot by night 3 if he doesn't claim.)

Alright, Day 3 then. This is still you throwing numbers at the wall and using logic again in hopes that the scum don't hit anywhere better than random. But let's forget about that convenient little detail for the sake of de-escalating an argument which we're both looking at through very different pairs of spectacles.

In post 96, Yosarian2 wrote:I'm not saying that's always the best option, but it certainly is a reasonable one. And if you do it, town is in great shape.

Yes, it's mostly reasonable to wait to claim until Day 3 in a mini game. It's just a lot safer to claim Day 2, and hope that a protective role can give you at least one more shot to make your plays. Two guaranteed inspection results for town is a lot better than three wasted ones. And it's got a chance of being even more, if the doc is unknown and the cop gets to investigate freely for at least another night (or perhaps even two).

And yes, at that point, it really does break the game. Follow the cop is very strong, but it's only strong if the cop's alive. Capiche?

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Post Post #105  (isolation #4)  » Mon Nov 19, 2012 6:57 am

Actually, I just looked it up in my personal stats. I have only lynched 3 town in a game twice, and in one of those games I also lynched three scum. In neither of the games did I lynch three of them in a row, there were always scum in between. Turns out I've only ever lynched 3 town in a row as scum... and that's multiple times, obviously.

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Post Post #106  (isolation #5)  » Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:01 am

In post 100, Axxle wrote:Anyone can use a cop, not so with vig.

Said the hero vig of Scummer of Love Invitational. :cool:

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Post Post #123  (isolation #6)  » Wed Nov 21, 2012 10:25 pm

Nothing wrong with agreeing with petapan. He's often right.

In post 109, Yosarian2 wrote:Not "lynched" 3 townies in a row as town, UN. Voted 3 townies in a row as town. The difference being that you don't actually control the lynch, so that's not a good analogy.

Psh, I usually vote just about everyone in the game, whether in RVS or for reactions, so statistically speaking it's a near impossibility that I haven't voted 3 townies in a row at some point in just about every game I've played. What's your actual point again? I'm sorry, it's gotten completely lost in the folds of your eagerness to prove a point that never really made sense to begin with.

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Post Post #126  (isolation #7)  » Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:39 pm

In post 124, Yosarian2 wrote:The point is that if you think a vig is going to be right 100% of the time in the long run you don't actually understand how mafia works.

...


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