A Dance with Dragons Mafia: A New Dawn!

[kortul]

Thor, i said the same during the day, that i am tired of people doing nothing. What did you expect me to do? I presented a case on my stronger scum read, AV, and only Minimum commented on that, nobody said they are willing to switch. You were arguing with many, but pushing at Zdenek, whom i consider more likely to be town.

[Minimum]

My awareness of your analogy is you presented two rather close numbers and suggested explaining the difference would be tough.

It's not that the difference is small; it's that there's no inherent reason for one to be bigger than the other.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 7, Votecount 11 aka end of Day Votecount

Thor665 (5) - kortul, Zdenek, Minimum, Pandora, AurorusVox

kortul (1) - Magua
Zdenek (1) - Thor665

Not Voting (1):

BBmolla

With 8 alive it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline

: 27th November at 14:30pm Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-11-27 10:30:47)

[Eddard Stark]

The Blackwoods would be eliminated. House Bracken would reign supreme in the Riverlands. They had been loyal to the Lannister's longer, surely their faith in House Lannister would be rewarded.

Or not. Cos they just lost their lord. Oh well!

Thor665 (Jonos Bracken, Vanilla Townie and a member of the

Lannister

Allia

nce

) was lynched Day 7.

It is now Night 7. You have 48 hours to submit your actions. (expired on 2012-11-28 17:16:09) is the countdown to deadline.

[Eddard Stark]

Kevan's with the Seven!

Kevan rose, his back stiff. He had been trying to salvage the kingdom too long. Was there any hope left? All this responding to a Higher Power was bothersome. Kevan had never believed in the Gods, not truly. A man did what he did and made his own way. Yet, now? Now he was being told to fight the good fight. At least once every 3 days he heard a voice telling him to do more. Always the same voice, one Eddard Stark. A strange thing, that. He had been a good man, there was no denying that but Kevan had not considered him a friend. Kevan had asked him once, why it was him who appeared. The 'man' just shrugged, spreading his arms wide. Kevan hadn't really expected an answer, but something

useful

would have been nice. Anyway, he went to bed. And then he didn't get up cos he lolgotkilled in his sleep.

Exciting! Another person dead. Another 'Alliance' member. They're going down quicker than Tyrion's whores! Only 6 brave souls left now. Ah well, Kevan almost lived until the epilogue. Can't ask fairer than that. Re-writes were bound to happen.

BBmolla (Kevan Lannister, *Knowledgable Townie and Kill Immune until Day 4 and a member of the

Lannister

Allia

nce

) died Night 7

*Knowledgable (Spelled wrongly on purpose!) means that the player had information about the set-up.

[Eddard Stark]

Day 8, Votecount 0

Not Voting (6):

Minimum, kortul, Magua, Zdenek, AurorusVox, Pandora

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline

: 13th November at 1:00am Ireland time. (GMT+1)

Countdown to deadline

: (expired on 2012-12-12 21:00:00)

[kortul]

Quick thoughts. Unless one of the scum is bulletproof, or AV is Stannis with more than 1-shot rolestopper and alive partner, scum cross-killed on BBmola. I can kinda see why Stannis would try to check him finally (even though it is silly), but why would Aegon shoot BBmola? He makes no sense as Stannis scum, and wasn't obv town either. Either Aegon do have a traitor available and still looking for him, or BBmola was too unpredictable.

Anyway, we are most likely in MyLo situation now. If the remaining scum are 2+1, killing lone scum will be game over. If it is 1+1, outcome would be more dependant on the night events, though lynching a scum today would improve the chances. If we have 2 alive Aegon, the initial setup was 5 - 2(+1), and if we have 2 alive Stannis, the initial setup was 4(+1?) - 3(+1). Second version looks more balanced, but then the information about Aegon forces divided doesn't make much sense, so i am leaning on the 2 (Aegon) + 1 (Stannis) or 1 + 1(+1) remaining.

I want to lynch AV, but if he is Stannis and we have 2 Aegon, the game would be over. Thinking about Magua, but who can be his partner? Either i am wrong on one of my my stonger townreads, or it is 1 + 1 after all (and in that case i feel better about lynching AV). And if i am wrong about two of my townreads, then if Magua is still locked on me i will watch from the dead QT soon anyway.

Will be busy and won't do any deep analysis until December 7 (my exam), except for some yesterday day quick reading to see if anything will catch my eye.

[Pandora]

Well, on the thoughts of scum maybe being bulletproof at least my result is kind of useful, nothing targetted AurorusVox last night. I have no idea what the optimal town play is in this kind of situation. Are we better off not lynching and praying for crosskills? Two dead Stannis and three dead Aegon, when we know there are still two kills happening, says there's at least one more of each.

If we're going to be lynching just looking at what Thor said, Magua is the only one left that wasn't on a wagon, and he seemed dead convinced Zdenek was scum. I'm willing to sheep dead people at this point since they can't be worse then I am right now. -_-

[Minimum]

Did you just confuse Aegon and Stannis, kortul? Pretty sure there are 2 Stannis and 1 Aegon left, given 2 and 3 dead respectively (and anything other than 4-4 makes almost no sense).

There's really no point to no-lynching given we're at 6 alive. 1 lynch, 2 kills leaves us with another Day (hopefully).

Pseudo-vote: AV

[Zdenek]

Minimum, where did you get your meta on Pine lurking as scum?

[Zdenek]

I'm willing to sheep dead people at this point since they can't be worse then I am right now.

How about dead people who weren't lunatics and actually put some thought into their reads, like Magna and Plumamma?

[Minimum]

CES will have to answer that himself...but just for the record, Zdenek, if you

are

scum, you should feel very ashamed of yourself. Do you realize what it would do to Thor's ego, as well as to what's left of mine? (Graveyard QT: "Omigod, I was so protown, but those derps lynched me because there was no case on me...except for me correctly CATCHING SCUM! Who you called obvtown!")

For the record, if this is 4-4, the player who's alone on his team should claim, because town can't afford to lynch them.

If this ISN'T 4-4, which I think is more likely in a twenty-eight player game given that one team has a traitor and the other is split, meaning that the game is unwinnable for the town, then everyone should claim and stop wasting my time.

[Minimum]

Magua, who would you have killed last night if you were scum?

Other people can answer this too, if they want.

[Magua]

If I were scum from either team, I'd be trying to crosskill the other team, so would've shot kortul. BBmolla-kill doesn't really make sense for either team to have killed. But lolwtf-Benmage kill, so, whatever. Possible different plan would be if one team had definite information on who was on the other team and was confident they could secure a lynch.

Pretty much assured that the game is not in a 2:2:2 state, but...even if it is, I'll kingmaker the shit out of that. Assuming 2:1:3, we need to lynch Stannis today. Don't think AurorusVox is Stannis (possible he's Aegon). If AV *is* Stannis and is lying about actually having rolestopped Shadow (since there is literally zero reason for scum to have actually done that), Aegon should've shot the fuck out of him last Night. Since that didn't happen, have to assume he's either Town or Aegon, and in either case, is a bad lynch.

Currently trying to decide if I want to completely abdicate free will and believe Thor on either kortul-town or Zdenek-scum. Too tired to have a definite answer for now.

[kortul]

@Minimum

- i doubt we have 2+2 remaining, previous day was too slow. If we have 2+1 scum remaining, 2 Stannis and 1 Aegon means more balanced initial setup 3+1 - 4, but why and how Aegon were divided?

Spoiler: Wild guess

Unless this is splitting for 2 and 2, with pairs having separate QT (and possibly no knowledge about the other pair), and kills based on some priority - that would be interesting mechanics. Does our mod like to experiment?

And to answer your question, if i were Stannis scum, i would have killed Magua, and if i were Aegon scum, i would have killed AV. Very likely to hit a rival, and at worst it removes one tunneler from me.

@Magua

, why would you kill only me at night, if you think that i make sense only as Aegon scum? And why do you think that there is zero reason for MoS rolestopping Shadow - you do not believe that grounds for a

good claim

is more important than holding 1 shot protection trying

to guess when

your partner (if he is even alive) will be shot at night in the large game?

[Pandora]

I'm willing to sheep dead people at this point since they can't be worse then I am right now.

How about dead people who weren't lunatics and actually put some thought into their reads, like Magna and Plumamma?

Yeah I can't imagine why you would accuse the guy who thought you were scum of being a lunatic. >_> And I can't imagine why you would specify someone who thought you were town due to not possibly being scum because apparently a traitor neighbourizing to his own faction would be implausable.

Magna died way too early too have relevant reads to now. Plum spent alot of their last posts arguing with Minimum about how AV and BBmolla sounded scummier then Anxiety. Plum's last picks were Minimum and kortul (and that we should lynch Thor but etc). Minimum, are you scum that should claim now to stop wasting people's time? :V

I wouldn't have killed anyone as I would have been too busy sneaking in their pantries even though there's no one interesting to spy on anymore. I never know when CES is the one at Minimum's house >_>

[Magua]

@Magua, why would you kill only me at night, if you think that i make sense only as Aegon scum? And why do you think that there is zero reason for MoS rolestopping Shadow - you do not believe that grounds for a good claim is more important than holding 1 shot protection trying to guess when your partner (if he is even alive) will be shot at night in the large game?

The question was "who would I shoot if I were scum." If I were scum, I'd be trying to crosskill. You're (eh, were) my strongest scumread.

As for MoS-Stannis rolestopping Shadow, I do not believe that a scum 1-shot rolestopper would say, "Rather than use this to protect my buddy / stop an investigation on my buddy, etc, I'm going to use it on a town investigative role to ensure they don't die." If Aurorus is scum, it makes way more sense for it to be Aegon where it's, "I know my buddy tried to kill Shadow but got roleblocked, so I can claim to be the one who blocked the kill."

[kortul]

Ok, we can have different opinions on the first part (Stannis-rolestopper).

Your last sentence actually opens another logical view on the situation for me, but why AV cannot use "i know one kill is missing on night 1 so I can claim to be the one who blocked kill on Shadow" being Stannis? Ie if he isn't rolestopper, then he can be any alignment at all, both factions are possible.

[Magua]

The thing is, there's really only two possibilities for the missing kill N1:

- BBmolla tries to kill, but is roleblocked by Shadow1psc.
- A different Aegon tries to kill Shadow1psc, but is rolestopped by MoS.

I find the first situation to just not be very likely, given that Shadow outright claimed D1, and had already expressed suspicion of BBmolla. It just makes so much more sense that the kill was blocked because Shadow was protected then to say that the most suspected Aegon player was sent to do the kill on the claimed roleblocker. The first situation is *possible*, I just don't see it as likely, and if it is true, then it'd be because AV was BBmolla's partner, not opposition.

[kortul]

Guess you somehow mixed bvoight and BBmola in your head (and in the post).

I can see some logic, though, if Aegon indeed are divided somehow, the part deciding on the kill might have no idea that bvoigt is their partner.

There are at least three more possibilities for the missing kill N1:
- one of the factions (more likely Aegon) tried to kill BBmola (bulletproof that night), who already came up with his vague information. That would also explain no attempts to kills him for a long time
- Plessiezarus (Skinner, Non Consecutive

Roleblocker

) blocked one of the killers
- scum crosskilled on one of the masons (most unlikely)

*sigh* We can go on forever, guess i will just ignore all claims for now, none of them is confirmable anyway. Claim isn't the main reason why i think AV is scum, anyway.

@Pandora

- i thought about your no-lynching idea - it improves town chances for the win only in 2+1 scenario, where we are about to lynch a lone scum. In all other cases i think lynch of someone suspicious is still better - even if it is mislynch, it improves chances for scum crosskill in the night.

[Pandora]

But if we mislynch we would literally need two crosskills to get out of this if we were at 2+1. >:T In fact even if we lynch 'correctly' we still need a crosskill. :/ It's depressing to think about but our fates are in the hands of the people with really shitty aim right now. Due to no options left + I still think it's a tying role I'd go with Zdenek as the best bet for today, but I really think no-lynching while pointing a finger empathically would work better.

[Zdenek]

Yeah I can't imagine why you would accuse the guy who thought you were scum of being a lunatic.

Okay, so then explain to me Thor's reads/changes of reads on Minimum and bbmolla.

Presently, I'd be inclined to vote for Minimum today - most likely to be scum, not Stannis aligned.

[Zdenek]

sorry scum that is Stannis aligned

[Minimum]

But if we mislynch we would literally need two crosskills to get out of this if we were at 2+1. >:T In fact even if we lynch 'correctly' we still need a crosskill. :/ It's depressing to think about but our fates are in the hands of the people with really shitty aim right now. Due to no options left + I still think it's a tying role I'd go with Zdenek as the best bet for today, but I really think no-lynching while pointing a finger empathically would work better.

The only scenario wherein Town wins with less than 2 crosskills is if we lynch Stannisscum Today.

Where is AV?

[Minimum]

Seems he has a bit of a sitewide activity problem. And just one death last Night...