Open 6 - Nightless (Ended) - before 388

[Mr Stoofer]

OMGUS Vote: Patrick

.

[Mr Stoofer]

[Mr Stoofer]

My answers:

1) 14
2) The Battle of Minden (in about 1742, I think)
3) Ryan Giggs

[Mr Stoofer]

EBWOP: Battle of Minden was 1759. I was thinking that it was part of the War of Austrian Succession; when of course it was part of the Seven Years War.

[Mr Stoofer]

Enough already with the stupid Pooky proposal.

[Mr Stoofer]

Pooky, the stats say as follows, assuming all voting is random.

Chance of you being pro-town: 7/11
If you are pro-town, chance of you picking a townie for the lynch: 4/11.
If you are pro-town, chance of you picking a townie for the lynch: 1
Chance of me voting for scum today, picking randomnly: 4/11

So, probability of my vote landing on scum if I decide where it goes = 4/11 = 0.363
Probability of my vote landing on scum if you decide whom I vote for = 7/11 x 4/11 = 0.231

Therefore I'd rather make my own choice than let you pick for me.

Of course, if you could prove to me that you were town, then the probability for you goes up to 0.363; in which case I might give you my vite. But you can't so I won't.

[Mr Stoofer]

unvote; Vote Thesp

.

Somehting distinctly odd about the way Thesp is reacting to the Pooky proposal. Not like him (or any experienced and skillfull player, such as he is) at all to abdicate, or contemplate abdicating, his vote in that way - especially since Thesp has no way of knowing if Pooky is pro-town. Unless Thesp is scum.

[Mr Stoofer]

I don't know. Do you?

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm saying that Pooky and Thesp are ballsy enough to do it.

QFT. A further reason for my vote on Thesp.

[Mr Stoofer]

FWIW, I don't think Pooky's proposal tells us one way or another whether he is scum. It's just the sort of thing he would do whether town or scum. What is of more interest, IMHO, is people's reactions to the proposal.

[Mr Stoofer]

Well that makes things a lot easier.

Unvote Thesp, Vote: jl2704

.

[Mr Stoofer]

jl2704's play doesn't make much sense to me so far.

It makes perfect sense if he is scum. Why isn't everyone voting for him?

[Mr Stoofer]

I think in general that scum are more likely to indulge in "If X is/isn't scum, then..." type reasoning, since they know the answer, so are not so worried about looking like fools if they are wrong.

Admittedly, I have some thoughts on that front but I want to find out for certain about jl2704 before having to hypothesise...

[Mr Stoofer]

Edit post 135 BWOP: Replace "indulge in" with "post" for clarity.

[Mr Stoofer]

I cannot foresse a scenario where jl2704 (or any given replacement) is so convincing to townieness that they would be allowed to the end of the game. I think the odds are good that jl2704 is scum. Let's please kill him. Thanks.

QFT. Anyone who doesn't vote jl2704 is just holding up the game.

[Mr Stoofer]

~waits patiently~

[Mr Stoofer]

Wow. Now I feel like an idiot. Not doing a detailed reread now, but, now working with the knowledge that jl was really newbish scum, I don't think Thesp would be a scumbuddy. It doesn't strike me that he would have tried to push the wagon of a scumpartner on like that.

That's an odd thing to say. Thesp was fairly late on to the wagon (5th out of 7), and only really pushed jl2704 when it was clear he was dead meat.

[Mr Stoofer]

Wow. Now I feel like an idiot. Not doing a detailed reread now, but, now working with the knowledge that jl was really newbish scum, I don't think Thesp would be a scumbuddy. It doesn't strike me that he would have tried to push the wagon of a scumpartner on like that.

That's an odd thing to say. Thesp was fairly late on to the wagon (5th out of 7), and only really pushed jl2704 when it was clear he was dead meat.

[Mr Stoofer]

Going to do a proper re-read, but this is just taking the piss:

So, Pooky, who's next? Can it be Nightfall?

[Mr Stoofer]

Hi everyone.

As I posted in the V/LA thread, I've been quite unwell which is why I haven't been posting in my games. So I think I owe you guys some content.

The bandwagon on Nightfall seems to me to be pretty well-founded, based on his behaviour towards the jl2704 bandwagon:

P.S. Ive been considering voting jl2704 but have held off because I wanted a vote count first. Is that so scummy?

This is unconvincing: a weak attempt to be associated with the bandwagon without wanting to place a vote.

Im willing to hammer jl2704, or I was before our little forum break.
But I think we may benefit a bit from refamiliarizing ourselves with the situation first.

I'll hold off at least long enough for people to voice wether JL's last post has swayed anyone.

How scummy is that!?! Practically says that he will only vote for jl2704 if he is doomed anyway.

~I was going to vote JL but had to wait for a vote count because I didnt want to accidently lynch him

I don't get that. In a game where there are no claims to be made, why would you vote for someone if you didn't want them to be lynched?

I'm a bit nervous about the ferocity of the Thesp/Pooky axis driving this wagon. In particular I was worried about this post when it was made:

Nightfall is next. Seriously, if jl2704 is scum, Nightfall almost certainly is, too.

Because of the way that Thesp joined the jl2704 wagon, that struck me at the time as saying: "OK I'll sacrifice my scum buddy but I'll want to lynch Nightfall tomorrow by by way of compensation."

But having looked again at Nightfall's posts I can see how Thesp could legitimately that if he was town. I'm still not sure what to make of Thesp although once we know Nightfall's alignment things will be a lot clearer.

So I'm happy to

vote: Nightfall

.

Postscript

I did notice this from Pooky:

cmon scumbags

place lynching vote on ur buddy alrdy

it might confuse us.

Now there were at

least

3 townies not voting for Nightfall when he posted this (and possibly as many as 6). So this post is more likely to slow down Nightfall's death than speed it up, by putting off those 3-6 townies (plus his scum buddies, if he has any) from voting for Nightfall. Anyway, it's not putting me off.

[Mr Stoofer]

So was Nightfall scum?

[Mr Stoofer]

Relyte is soo next

OK: reasons please.

[And it looks like my suspicions of Thesp were on a par with my usual standards of intuition.]

[Mr Stoofer]

Has Pooky returned after the latest haitus?

[Mr Stoofer]

I'd like to hear from Pooky.

[Mr Stoofer]

I have some sympathy with Relyte's predicament. His wagon is being driven by Thesp and Pooky. But Thesp has not given any reasons for finding Relyte scummy and the only relevant post of Pooky is post 116.

I'd love to hammah Relyte (2 hammahs in a row! Possibly 2 scum hammahs in a row!) but I would like to see the case against him laid out, and see his response, first.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm still waiting on Pooky/Thesp's reasons, which are long overdue.

But to say that either of them are presently in the frame for a lynch -- which is what Relyte, Cephrir and (by implication) Ripley are doing -- is just silly.

[Mr Stoofer]

If you want, you can my last post as my list of people I think are most likely to be scum.

But if it is at all possible, I would still like to see Relyte's response to the reasons why he is at lynch -1.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm still waiting on Pooky/Thesp's reasons, which are long overdue.

I will try to give this a suitable response in a day or so.

Well? (Especially since you are posting elsewhere but not here)

[Mr Stoofer]

While we are waiting, I didn't like Ripley's post 292 in which he tries to shift attention onto a whole new group of people (me, VitaminR, Brian McQ) accusing us of being guilty of the crime of not being suspicious.

And as for Cephrir, I find his list of suspicions positively baffling.

[Mr Stoofer]

Stoofer says just 5 posts later "But if it is at all possible, I would still like to see Relyte's response to the reasons why he is at lynch -1."

But no one ever posted any good reasons for lynching Relyte. That was my point. I wanted to see Relyte's response to the reasons; but (as I had been saying for some time) those reasons had not been given.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm on a camp till this saturday, so I'll post only then.

[Mr Stoofer]

I've done an analysis of the final vote counts for the end of days 1-3 (using replacements names where appropriate):

Voted for jl2704 (scum)

: Mr Stoofer, IH, VitaminR, Pooky, Thesp, Dead Rikmaru, Relyte

Voted for Nightfall (scum)

: Thesp, Pooky, Cephirir, IH, VitaminR, Mr Stoofer

Voted for Relyte (town)

: IH, Cephrir, VitaminR, Pooky, Thesp, Dead Rikimaru

Now, you have to make allowances for when people joined the bandwagon. E.g. Thesp should get credit for kicking off the Nightfall bandwagon, whereas the fact I hammered Nightfall doesn't say much about me.

From this, the following things stand out:

• It's mainkly the same people on all 3 lynches
• Dead Rikmaru (replacing BMQ) has an interesting pattern. He was on jl2704 very late - when he was doomed. He wasn't on Nightfall at all. And he hammered Relyte. BMQ also lurked so much he had to be replaced.
• Patrick wasn't on any of the lynches; and has only cast one non-random vote the whole game.
  
• Ripley wasn't on any lynch either and hasn't voted all game, although he has thrown out a lot of suspicion.

On the basis of this analysis I think

vote: Ripley

and

FOS: Dead Rikmaru and Patrick

is in order.

[Mr Stoofer]

I want to see Jessica naked.

(And I'd quite like to see Ripley dead, too.)

[Mr Stoofer]

Pooky, can we go for Ripley?

lol

[Mr Stoofer]

Interestingly, if Ripley is scum, it all but clears Cephrir. This game could be over quickly.

Eh?

[Mr Stoofer]

:arrow: I am goning to have limited access until about 8th January. I'll check in whenever I can but this may be infrequent.

[Mr Stoofer]

If the other scum isn't Cephrir, then I have no clue who it is.

Vote: Cephrir

.

[Mr Stoofer]

Unvote

. Let's not rush this.

[Mr Stoofer]

IH: to answer your questions.

I didn't say that Cephrir "must" be scum in post 390. All I meant was that he was my best guess at the time; and if not him, then I currently had no way to tell which of the others it was.

As for not rushing, I had two things in mind.

First

, my post 390 was done in a rush (I was in the middle of cooking dinner for my mother-in-law, brother-in-law, and parents, who have all come to stay). I hadn't done a re-read or thought carefully about it enough to warrent a vote.

Secondly

, I felt uncomfortable with your post 392. By post 392 the day was only 3 posts old and already Cephrir was half way to a lynch. The last two days we spped-lynched townies and suddenly it felt like we might be going the same way. I also didn't understand your reference to "hold off on the lynching momentarily".

[Mr Stoofer]

if Cephrir comes up town, we should stop mindlessly lynching for a little bit at least

The way this is worded suggests that we should mindlessly lynch Cehprir. That aside, I agree that we need to take more care than recently.

[Mr Stoofer]

Sometimes I wonder if I'm playing the same game as Cephrir.

[Mr Stoofer]

Thesp: my initial, not-properly-thought-out vote on Cephrir was because I simply couldn't understand why he was playing the way he was. E.g. how on earth did he come up with any of his lists of suspcious players? The fact he OMGUS voted me after I voted him is a more recent example of the same thing. What was he thinking? What did he mean by "I have a good idea"?

I'm going to a do a proper analysis of everyone's voting patterns etc as soon as I have the time.

[Mr Stoofer]

Mod: Please revoke the deadline.

I for one don't care if this lynch takes all day. Additionally, random.org is a terrible, terrible way to decide a lynch. Thanks!

QFT x 1 million.

Also, I am not properly back from my holiday yet (see my sig) and have not had the time to do a proper analysis yet.

But a prod on Pooky would be justified.

[Mr Stoofer]

You've got plenty to talk about Cephrir. For example:

I have a very good idea.

Vote: Stoofer

.

What does this mean? Have you ever given a reason for me being scum? Have you actually read this game?

[Mr Stoofer]

OK, here arev the voting stats(using replacements names where appropriate):

Voted for jl2704 (scum)

: Mr Stoofer, IH, VitaminR, Pooky, Thesp, Dead Rikmaru, Relyte.

Voted for Nightfall (scum)

: Thesp, Pooky, Cephirir, IH, VitaminR, Mr Stoofer.

Voted for Relyte (town)

: IH, Cephrir, VitaminR, Pooky, Thesp, Dead Rikimaru.

Voted for Ripley (scum)

: Mr Stoofer, IH, VitaminR, Pooky, Thesp.

Cephrir was voting for Thesp

Voted for Dead Rikimaru (town)

: Pooky, Cephrir, Thesp, IH, Patrick.

Voted for Patrick (town)

: VitaminR, Pooky, IH, Thesp

I am going to have a look at this and post my analysis shortly.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm going to need to spend some time digesting IH's post, but in the meantime

MOD

: please can we have a prod or replacement of Pooky?

[Mr Stoofer]

Please retract the deadline. I (and probably everyone else) is waiting for Pooky's promised post.

[Mr Stoofer]

Well, I wanted to wait for Pooky's "main post" before responding, but since that's not coming any time soon, I'll say this.

Basically the plan is that a townie tries to identify two other townies (not including himself). Everyone else, including said townie, is lynched. If he was right, we win. If he picked the scum as a townie, we lose.

Now, I think I could with some confidence identify

one

other townie (not including myself) right now. But I wouldn't be prepared to gamble everything on correctly identifying two. Equally, I'm not prepared to entrust this decision any one other player. There's one player in particular who, if he is a townie, I certainly don't trust to correctly pick out two other innocents. I am therefore against the plan.

I

really

want to hear from Pooky right now.

[Mr Stoofer]

Now, I think I could with some confidence identify

one

other townie (not including myself) right now.

I am curious as to whom this player is.

OK I'll admit that it's you. Pooky just about covered all the reasons but the key one for me is your defence of Cephrir. Frankly I don't accept your Defence. Ripley's comment is just one comment amongst many; and is the sort of thing scum sometimes says to confuse the town.

[Mr Stoofer]

That post didn't really come out right - its too terse - so I'll try again:

Now, I think I could with some confidence identify

one

other townie (not including myself) right now.

I am curious as to whom this player is.

OK I'll admit that it's you. Pooky just about covered all the reasons but the key one for me is your defence of Cephrir. I don't see you doing that if you were scum.

I should add that I don't really agree with the vehemence of your defence of Cehprir. Your point is a valid one but I do not think that it "proves" that he

must

be innocent. Ripley's comment is just one comment amongst many in this game; and is the sort of thing scum sometimes says to confuse the town. Or Ripley may himself have been confused. It's a factor to take into account, in his favour, but it is still possible that Cephrir is scum.

[Mr Stoofer]

Ripley's comment is just one comment amongst many; and is the sort of thing scum sometimes says to confuse the town.

Also, this statement is flat-out wrong. This is far, far more likely to be a subtle defense than a well-placed misdirection.

FOS: Mr Stoofer.

This looks like an attempt to discredit some very compelling evidence in a potential innocent's favor.

Please don't misunderstand me: I agree that it is (your words) "very compelling evidence". Where I disagree with you is that you appeared to accept that it was conclusive proof, whereas I feel that it has to be balanced against the other evidence.

[FYI: I haven't considered Nightfall's comment re: Cehprir.]

If I'm lynching any 3, it'd be IH/Mr Stoofer/VitaminR. VitaminR's only point for him is that he's willing to self-vote.

On what basis are you so confident that Pooky is town? I.e. how can you get a read on him? One of my biggest problems in this game, is that Pooky has posted too little content to enable a view to be formed one way or the other.

[Mr Stoofer]

Also, the fact that Cephrir hasn't posted for over 2 weeks -- while posting very frequently elsewhere on the -- doesn't exactly endear him to me.

Not that anyone else is being particularly active. Come on guys!

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote: IH

. I don't see any reason not to.

Well, you haven't given any reason to vote him, either. The only time you've offered an opinion on IH was on 1st November, and even then it wasn't much. I really don't think your recent posts have helped, Thesp.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote: IH

since he's about 4th on my "most trusted" list and we need to get this game moving.

[Mr Stoofer]

Yeah it does. GG town.

[Mr Stoofer]

FYI, I must be the first scum to get lynched for not voting for townies. And I had a good excuse in each case:

• Relyte
  : I kept asking for reasons - which were never properly articuklated by anyone, although it's fair to say he had done enough to desrve a lynch.
• Dead Rikimaru
  : this was a speed lynch which I missed due to illness (which I posted in the thread). And since I was the one that initiated the suspicion of Dead Rkimaru, that should have counted in my favour (in this bizarre world where it's scummy not to vote for townies).
• Patrick
  : ditto.
• IH
  : I voted for him!

Perhaps I'll nominate myself for the Title: "Too Perfect" if no-one else does.

[Mr Stoofer]

And thanks very much for modding spectrumvoid. You did a good job and I'd sign up for one of your games again. It's always difficult to know how much to prod and when to replace, but I think you got it about right.

[Mr Stoofer]

I'm not sure I played a great game.

I was responsible for killing off both jl2704 and Ripley. At the time I felt I had no choice but to do this. In retrospect I'm not so sure. When you are scum, the game is a lot less confusing, genuinely scummy posts always look scummy (because you know the author is scum) and connections are much clearer. All my scumbuddies' posts seemed to me to scream "I am scum"; and I thought that if I did not jump on them, someone else would. So I ended up leading the lynches of 2 out of 3 buddies. Could we have done better if I hadn't done that?

Anyway, I certainly felt lonely after day 4!

[Mr Stoofer]

the speed of the first two lynches caught some of your scum buddies off guard (it certainly contributed to Ripley and Nightfall's lynches)

√

[Mr Stoofer]

http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 930#501930