Space Monkey Mafia: GAME OVER!

[dahen]

Ah, yes, this was the game with the crazy start.
Anyhow, I was voting Nightson in this game (sorry about me confusing games after the crash).

vote Nightson

[dahen]

Ok. I'm doing a re-read from start (well, the second start):

So, first this MBL-wagon. I guess we have at least some scum on it, and I don't think the last are scum, based on sticking out (yes it's WIFOM). But of the voters I would say Nightson/Klebian as most likely scum.

Then Glork shouting for the hammer. Of course he would say that he was joking if somebody hammered. But it's risky, since a newbie might fall for it. And that newbie would then be a target for accusations the next day as well. It's a potential two-mislynch scenario for the risk of a little joke.

Ibby has a point in that putting him at lynch-1 could be to get a claim. The voters might not admit it, but MBL could feel forced to claim and do that early which sure would be no good. Even if MBL never would claim because of this (so it seems from his comment), there was a lesser chance after Ibby's statement.

Then we have STD silently voting Glork, which surprises me since it's possible to write at least a mini-case against Glork. Then Glork explains himself and STD moves his vote silently away to Bird.

Then we have MBL smelling a suckup from klebian to Glork. My experience says however that it's more common for scum to point out suckups than to actually suckup.

Then we have Glork's post #42, which is good. So in the Glork-MBL battle, I am in favor of lynching MBL. Although we might have some more interesting candidates.

Bird got some attention for unvoting without reason. STD brought it up, but he was already voting Bird. Then Sarcastro and Twito followed. Then another silent vote from STD on Sarcastro. Some posts later he encourages us to string up Bird or Sarcastro, even though Sarcastro appearantly was based on a misunderstanding. I was actually a little onto Sarcastro for following STD so quickly against Bird, but Sarcs later posts didn't have scum vibes attached.

Then we have Phoebus who doesn't like Sarcs show. Well, neither do I, but I don't like Phoebus post. I agree with the content, but the wording sounds scummy. Twito obviously thinks so too. And later Nightson.

Then Twomz promised to analyze but voted Glork without much comment.
Maybe Phoebus and Twomz are scum.

But then it goes on. Ibby's #121 is great, but I don't think Glork is the play.

Finally votes on bird again.

I have trouble seeing constellations, but I will

vote Phoebus

[dahen]

Ah, we're back. Great.
And I'm here! *waves*

I don't see a reason to change my vote yet. Let's see what a re-read can do.

[dahen]

I think in this game scum are waiting while townies argues.
So let me pop in a

unvote, vote Pooky

because his recent post was his first (apart from any lost in the crash) and it was a strange way to say that he's here and has been following without commenting.

[dahen]

Ok, I failed to change the subject with my vote, so

unvote

. I think we've gotten the information a lynch of MBL would give us (apart from his actual alignment and what follows). If we feel his alignment is a key, then we should lynch him. Otherwise, it's time looking somewhere else. I suggest the latter.

[dahen]

Besides the fact that I don't know whether he is scum or not, I'm not protecting him. There is things to gain from lynching him. He wasn't lynched, though. So maybe we can look for other clues? The other option is to put some more votes on him and lynch him. I prefer the first, but I think the latter is better than letting this taking focus from the others.

[dahen]

Just checking in in all my games to say I'm here. I will re-read each one, but it'll take some time.

Special note for this game, since it's so fun: I have seen quite a few overreactions and also some surprising underreactions in the latest posts. I will elaborate on that in my next post.

[dahen]

Sorry, didn't find. this thread until now. The recent lock took this off my watch list. I'm back now, though.

Special note for this game, since it's so fun: I have seen quite a few
overreactions and also some surprising underreactions in the latest posts. I will elaborate on that in my next post.

I seem to have lost my notes and can't really reconstruct those underreactions, but I'll try to take it from here. Two Gorillas down. No sign of other killing groups. Obviously bird was unvoting becuase they were scum buddies. How likely is it that even more scum were on that wagon? I would look outside it.

Would ibby first vote MBL to then move her vote at hammer time to Bird? Possibly.
Who in this game has never voted MBL? We lost a bit in the crash. Does anybody have a list? I never voted MBL, but who more than me?

[dahen]

Sure, PJ could be something. As I said, Ibby shifted from MBL to Bird. If you think she would double-distance like that, I'm fine with a PJ vote.

vote PJ

[dahen]

Lots to read. PJ has put up nicely.

unvote

As for hammering Inhim, I really have to reread on him.

[dahen]

CES: Your longest post in this game so far contains two sentences. Would you mind telling me a little more of your thoughts? Apart from your first random vote, you have been on all wagons without adding reasons.

[dahen]

I'm not so sure there are two killing groups. I think there are other tricks involved.

However, it seems like we have our guy for today.

vote CES

[dahen]

Good morning Thok. Did it go as planned?

Also, we had no night kill tonight, but I don't know if that's very much to be happy about. We have only had gorillas killed that way anyway.

I smell some funny bananas.

[dahen]

Great to know I'm not a scum that gorillas don't like to find. I dropped two hints in order for Gorillas to find me:

The first hint day 1:

And I'm here! *waves*

Right after night 2 (Notice the period. I was sad I wasn't found):

Sorry, didn't find. this thread until now.

[dahen]

Hmm... I'm not convinced Klebian is a Gorilla.

A quick answer to his question:

My first post this day to Thok was because his post was the reason we were lynching CES. I wanted to see if he would apologize for lynching a SM or be happy about it as he was. The talk yesterday about informed minority made me believe that this turning point would come.

After the first gorilla night-kill my theory was that Gorillas had to choose between killing or trying to recruit and that they were unlucky to kill their own.

[dahen]

Thok, let's hear your result if they don't overlap too much.

Glork, isn't it best to wait for Thok before lynching Masterchief?

[dahen]

Good post by SV. Nice to see that you're also doubting Klebian as semi-cleared Gorilla.
I'll have to read on Glork and Fritz. My gut says that Glork is town and that Fritz has posted to little.

A weird idea that just strook me is that there is a SK that does all the killing, while the monkeys blame it on each others. The larger number of Gorillas could account for the Gorilla deaths during the night. It would also explain the mystery around the first death of the space monkey doctor.

However, I don't think this is very likely, but I wanted to say it anyway. I think the first death was pre-arranged to not tip us off too early.

On a side note, have you realized that the title of this game is a hint in itself?

[dahen]

Well, it works for me.

vote: Masterchief

[dahen]

Posted in V/LA thread:

Limited acces until Friday 26th. I'm going on a business trip to Germany and Gothenburg.

[dahen]

Oh, I've got access again. I'm tempted to hammer Nightson, but I prefer waiting another day to see if he remembers that post he promised.

Threat

: I'll hammer you, Nightson, tomorrow if you haven't posted by then.

[dahen]

Hi people!

I have completely missed this game. Since I got back from my vacation I have followed on all of the other games, but I have not gotten any reminders for this one. Please send me a prod if something like this happens in the future. I'm never lurking on purpose.

I'm glad we have found a SM this night. Too bad STD was modkilled, but I actually think I would have voted him if I'd been around. Regarding today, I've done some speed-reading to catch up and not found anything particularly scummy.

I'm not sure what to think of Glork. I was in the end-game with him a little while ago (mini 358) and finally got it right. I'll see if I can get it this time too. That involves re-reads and yes Glork, some voting pattern analysis as well.

[dahen]

Minor edit: My vacation was actually a business trip.

I will not be home this week-end, but I'll try to get a good post by Monday.

[dahen]

Glork - I told you I'd post on Monday. That's today. I will start with the post right now, even that it might take a little while to complete.

[dahen]

No, problem, Glork. I like your style.
Here we go:

I'll start with a few words about when all of us thought we were scum. (At least, I think the SM's knew that they were scum from the start.):

Since everybody thinks they are scum, we can expect scum behaviour from everybody. The difference between SMs and Gorillas at that point was that the Gorillas don't know who their mafia companions are, while the SMs probably knows. What I'm trying to say is that Gorillas easily would bus other Gorillas, while SM's probably wouldn't (subject to normal tactical bussing of course).

SMs we know of (apart from SpeedyKQ):
A) CES
B) Twito

Possible SMs:
c) dahen
d) Fritzler
e) Glork
f) Nightson

Gorillas:
G) the rest

Votes D1 from A-f:
A: GG(fos:e)G
B: GG
c: fGG
e: GGGG(fos:GGG)G(fos:f)
d: GG
f: GGGGGG

Votes D2

I'll have to do the rest later. I will give my analysis as well.

[dahen]

More analysis will come tomorrow morning. Too late to continue now, but I'm certainly following and will make sure we don't miss lynching Twito.

[dahen]

Continuing:

A CES, B Twito, c dahen, d Fritzler, e Glork, f Nightson, G confirmed gorillas

End of D1 votes from A-f:
A: G
B: G
c: -
d: G
e: G
f: G

Votes D2 from A-f:
A:GGG
B:G
c:G
d:GG
e:GA(fos:G)GG
f:-

End of D2 votes from A-f:
A:G
B:G
c:-
d:G
e:G
f:-

Votes D3 from A-f:
B:G
c:A
d:A
e:G(fos:G)A

Total votes D1-D3 from A-f:
A:GGGGGG
B:GGGG
c:fGGGA
d:GGGGA
e:GGGGGGGGA
f:GGGGGG

I had hoped we would have a little more cross-voting between the unconfirmed.
I have voted Nightson once. Apart from that nobody of {c,d,e,f} have ever voted anybody of {c,d,e,f}.
Just from these numbers, I'd say Glork is the most suspicious because with all those votes, he has never voted a SM until Thok explicitly told him to day 3.
On the other hand, Nightson has been missing a lot of time, and Fritzler hasn't voted that much either.
Seems like I actually have to read the posts, not just the votes. More to come soon.

[dahen]

D1:
Twito votes MBL(G)
CES votes Phoebus(G)
Glork votes MBL(G)
Frizler votes MBL(G)
Nightson votes MBL(G)
CES unvotes/votes MBL(G)
Glork shouts for hammer
This says nothing, since Gorillas and SM:s both want to kill MBL. Gorillas, because they think they are scum and likes to kill fast with little discussion, and SM:s because they know they are scum and knows MBL to be Gorilla.
The only thing I'm looking for now is connections between unconfirmed and scum/other unconfirmed.


Twito: Hehe without Glorks unvote MBL would be dead now
Twito accuses Phoebus' vote on Sarcastro
Sarcastro defends
Glork says Sarcastro's good people
Nightson votes Phoebus in otherwise silent post
Glork thinks Nightson's post is bad
Glork accuses Twomz of not voting Nightson (but doesn't vote him himself)
Glork says he got Nightson and Bogre mixed up
Twomz points out that Glork did quote Nightson
Glork explains himself
Fritzler says wow to Twomz, but ignores the latest conversation
* CES fos:es Glork, but confirms his vote on MBL

Twito makes an interesting comment: "Does anyone wish to make this easy and claim scum?"
ibby: Well, something is up with Nightson and Glork
dahen: So in the Glork-MBL battle, I am in favor of lynching MBL. Although we might have some more interesting candidates.
dahen: Ibby's #121 is great, but I don't think Glork is the play.

Then the lock-down

dahen crumbs: And I'm here! *waves*
Glork points out that Frizler explained that Glork had more than one D1 behavior.
Glork asks why bird is buddying up to him.
* CES says bird is trying to make Glork look bad, because we're lynhing him.

dahen votes Pooky and later unvotes him and defends MBL.
Glork reacts: Hi, why are you protecting your scumbuddy MBL?

Glork puts his vote back on MBL
Fritzler: i love glork's quick change of heart
Glork: Quick change of heart? I said before the crash that I'd be happy lynching either MBL or Ibby today. It just so happens that there's potential for an MBL lynch, and no such potential for an Ibby lynch.
Nightson: unvote, vote: MBL (without any content)

Glork to MBL: Obv I think Dahen might be a scumbuddy of yours
Glork: I will also note that though Nightson said he was keeping his vote on Bird until Bird acknowledged the fact that he was the leading vote-getter, he jumped back onto MBL as soon as the momentum started up against him. In fact, I'd like to hear from Nightson about his behavior. FoS: Nightson. Please explain yourself.

Glork wants a claim.
Twito is extremely sure that MBL will turn up scum and thinks claim is meaningless.

Now comes the most interesting part so far:

I agree with having to get PJ lynched tomorrow. But bird is todays vote.

Meaning: PJ is OK tomorrow, but Bird today. Earlier it was MBL today.

Bird hunting season is ending it's time to finish up.

More pressure on Bird.

Unvote. No time to re-read now, will re-read before deadline.

Gives me the feeling of having vote on scumbuddy and noticing that throw under the bus manover isn't necassery

A little pressure on the side for tomorrow, perhaps.

So I'll go ahead and Vote: Nightson, as I find the birdwagon to be reeking of gorillas.

Huh? I want to re-read and be able to actually post, not suddenly have bird hammered and find myself in Night.

Well you still have time. Make up your mind.
Imo lynch is better than no lynch. And bird seems to be scum on top of that.

What is this? No side pressure on Nightson? No suggestion to lynch him tomorrow? I'd say that Twito defends Nightson here without wanting it to be appearant.

So, I'd say that for now, Nightson looks like our best lynch for tomorrow.

FOS: Nightson

vote: Twito

[dahen]

Deadline in less than 24 hours.

Klebian - please vote!

Mod

: Please prod Fritzler and Nightson

[dahen]

At first, I didn't like Glork's claim, or rather the confidence with which he voted Klebian on that post. But after thinking it through, I agree that the lack of kill after Thok's claim seems to come from Block rather than Doc, which gives him and his theory enough credibility for me to

FOSWITV: Klebian

.

However, I think it's important that we see if Nightson or his possible replacement has an opinion on the matter.

[dahen]

Welcome VitaminR!

I'll hold off my vote until you have posted again with hopefully a good analysis, since Nightson was very quiet.

[dahen]

Dahen, please answer my questions.

Calm down, I'm in a different time zone. I have every intention to be active in this game.

1.) How many Space Monkeys do you think are left?
2.) Do you think the Space Monkeys have any abilities?
3.) Given the answers to above, do you think a Lynch or a No-Lynch is strategically better with 6 players alive?

1.) Well, obviously one or two. Assuming SpeedyKQ was a red herring, we would have three or four real SM:s of 18 players (17 without Speedy). Two differences from normal games is the abnormal start which didn't get a Gorilla lynched N1 (it was like starting in day) and the confusions from the role reversal. The first is in towns favor, while the latter benefits scum. Four SM:s in this setup without SK seems fair, which concludes two remaining scum.
2.) No, I don't. (If the red herring theory is incorrect, then we have to account for SpeedyKQ as doc even if that feels weird with no appearant Gorilla vigs. To continue this track, Speedy was revealed as doc, while the Gorillas are reveled as coded roles. I think this fits well with Speedy being a red herring.)
I believe a SM GF is unlikely.
3.) I'm in favor of a lynch.

I've been thinking a lot about MC and the fact that he could "impersonate the enemy". What does that mean? He couldn't have known the identities of the true scum, because why wouldn't he just tell us (unless he wasn't allowed to, in which case we should look for crumbs or consider MC stupid). No, I don't think MC knew scum. Then did scum believe MC to be scum? That would only make sense if scum don't know each others. However, I think they do. I'm not sure how night kills would be chosen otherwise. So, what about MC as miller? Meaning he would turn up as SM on a Thok investigation. It doesn't fit. Millers are poor things. MC was an officer (albeit of lowest rank).

But MC has to have an ability related to scum, since he could impersonate them. What if he could block? Glork thinks doc is inappropriate for an Ensign, but he says nothing about MC as a possible role blocker.

Glork claims Captain, which is logical if we assume the ranking "Ensign-Lieutnant-Captain". But we know our Lieutnant was a cop. Would a captain be a blocker? It's possible, but I believe that a cop is much more valuable than a blocker, which makes it reversed to the ranking.

MC claimed SM and stuck to it. Not even when he realized he was getting lynched did he claim otherwise. Did he really think he was scum at that point needing to fake claim? What possible ability could he have and still think that he was scum?

Maybe he didn't have an ability. Maybe he was a backup cop. The rank Ensign is today replaced by second lieutenant. So if Thok would die as first lieutenant, MC would take over as second lieutenant (ensign). But in that case scum either no-killed with a claimed cop around or was blocked but believed they had a doc around (since otherwise the next night another scum would go for Thok).

Arrgh, head spinning. Half is against Glork, half is pro-Glork. I'm posting this now and will continue the reasoning later.

[dahen]

1a) Killermonkey was blocked [40%]
1b) Monkeys forgot to send in a nightchoice [1%]
1c) Monkeys decided not to send in a nightchoice [2%]
1d) Monkeys were stopped by an unclaimed doc [7%]
1e) Thok had a one-time nightkill immunity [10%]
1f) Thok was unnightkillable until MC was killed (Ensign auto-protecting his superior) [35%]
1g) Something else [5%]

2a) Backup cop [30%]
2b) Role blocker [25%]
2c) Thok protector [25%]
2d) Something else [20%]

[dahen]

Time to read-up after the week-end. Lots of thoughts. But I really need an answer to this one.

While there shouldn't be anything wrong with this, I was 'blocked' n4. Thus, unless you don't believe glork is a rb (which is true)

Are you saying that you got notified of Glork blocking you?

[dahen]

Ok. But I'm not satisfied with the "which is true"-part. What exactly is true?

[dahen]

Well, Glork made it quite clear long ago that he wasn't a regular Gorilla Soldier. So it's no surprise that he claims something else. I can see him as a blocker and I can think of an captain as a blocker.

But I have two problems with you Glork:
1. You have stated several times that Ensigns can't possibly be docs. With the certainty of which you've said that, I'm surprised that you didn't claim as soon as MC's role was revealed. Because at that point you must have thought that you had nailed Klebian as scum, right?

2. Your recent more detailed claim. I am not going to point out any details, but it simply matches my own quite badly.

[dahen]

To all my games:

Sorry for my absence Thu-Sun last week. I was on an unplanned vacation trip with my girl-friend. I'm back now, though.

To this game:

I am almost to the point where I am going to make an ultimatum that I will not vote for anybody other than either Glork or VitaminR today.

That's too bad. I am going to vote Glork or Klebian. And I'll probably vote Klebian if Glork himself can look at his PM and compare it to his claim and tell where it differs the most.

Glork

, if you can see what I'm thinking about and correct it, spell it out and I'll vote Klebian.

PJ (confirmed)

, if you see what I'm thinking about, say so, but don't reveal it!

The rest (unconfirmed + Klebian)

, if you see what I'm thinking about, spell it out and I'll probably think you are pro-town.

Just so you know: Even if Glork can't find it, it's not an automatic Glork vote for me, since he could have that part worded differently.

[dahen]

If you want anything more

Yes, I do. Good to make sure you don't get modkilled, but don't stall because of this.

Yes, it is obvious what is missing in Glork's paraphrase, but it is firstly possible that scum were given a sample role PM before the game began and this whole discussion is silly

Yes, it's possible. Feel free to continue on other tracks in parallel. This is my main interest now.

So... dahen I see what you mean, even though I missed the first time round.

Depending on your creativity, it would be nice if you could post what you mean in an encrypted form that can be decrypted with a key you give after Glork's answer. I don't know if such stuff is allowed or if you understand how to do it well, but it would be nice. Otherwise, just wait a little for Glorkie.

[dahen]

I see.

Come on Glork, we're waiting.

[dahen]

No, don't spell it out, VitaminR. In this regard, you're already cleared (which means you're a gorilla or a SM and have our PM).

I would very much like Klebian to give his view on this. I'm tempted to follow your example.

[dahen]

Fritzler - any thoughts?

I'm leaning at voting Klebian. I am suspcious about Glork, but so was I last time when he was town. The lack of kills and the return to Thok at the point it did fits well with a roleblocker. Glork was fast with his claim this day, which speaks in his favor too.

With Klebian as one scum, I'd say Fritzler is the other. Mostly based on townie feelings from the rest. Fritzler is always posting so short posts that I have a hard time reading him. I'll see if I can find any support for this theory.

If this is true, then PJ must change his vote to avoid a no-lynch.

PJ, I like the efforts you are putting into this. Please keep it up. You're doing a good job, but I don't agree with your conclusions this time. I wouldn't call the game sad. I enjoy it very much.

No need waiting for Fritzler, let's get this vote in.

vote Klebian

[dahen]

Glork - sure. I've not been on this site for very long.
But you could always look at my list at the Wiki:
http://www.mafiascum.net/cgi-bin/wiki.pl/dahen

As you see, I've only been scum twice. Once the game restarted after just a day and the other was a totally weird game when I couldn't harm town.

Klebian, I'm not totally impressed by your input to the flavor discussion. Could you please spell it out what you think I am looking for.

[dahen]

First some replies to Glork.

496: When nothing but Gorillas had died N1 and N2 and I hadn't been recruited even though I believed my hints would have been picked up if the Gorillas knew they were looking for me (which I believed at that point), I figured there was something wrong. Two scum groups didn't seem as the answer, but I wasn't convinced of the reverse setup until Thok's said "Excellent" (post 522). Although when Thok started pushing CES and talked about informed minority I was curious as to if this would be the case.

My first post the day after the CES lynch (521) was made as an attempt to get Thok to reveal his plan. Since I wasn't completely sure, I tried to still look like a SM by saying "Also, we had no night kill tonight, but I don't know if that's very much to be happy about. We have only had gorillas killed that way anyway" in case I would have guessed wrong on Thok.

To be clear:

At that point, did you know that SMs were scum or not?

No, but I strongly believed something there was something strange about this setup and I saw that theory as the most likely.

Did you figure that Thok had an investigative role?

I'm not sure exactly what qualifies as an investigative role, but I was totally convinced that he had role-based information regarding CES.

What pairings do all of you find to be most likely at this point?

My stand-point hasn't changed since I posted this:

I'm leaning at voting Klebian. I am suspcious about Glork, but so was I last time when he was town. The lack of kills and the return to Thok at the point it did fits well with a roleblocker. Glork was fast with his claim this day, which speaks in his favor too.

With Klebian as one scum, I'd say Fritzler is the other. Mostly based on townie feelings from the rest. Fritzler is always posting so short posts that I have a hard time reading him. I'll see if I can find any support for this theory.

I've promised an analysis on Klebian+Fritzler, but that has to wait. Real life calling.

[dahen]

It seems like there is a need for some clarification.

Klebian and PJ:

I am suspcious about Glork, but so was I last time when he was town. The lack of kills and the return to Thok at the point it did fits well with a roleblocker. Glork was fast with his claim this day, which speaks in his favor too.

I state here three things.
1. It can happen that I am suspicious of Glork even though he is town.
2. The lack of kills and return to Thok suggest a role-blocker and is pro-Glork.
3. Glork was fast with his claim, which I think speaks in his favor too (too refers to as in addition to no 2).

Please don't do the mistake of thinking that I'm stupid. I would never think that #1 could be rewritten as "If I am suspicious of Glork, that means that Glork is pro-town." I know way too much logic to do such a thing.

I like PJ's idea of lynching the common person within the pairings, but his suggestion is to lynch VitaminR. Since I don't think a Glork+Klebian thing here is very likely I'd want Klebian to try to convince me why Fritz isn't viable.

And another thing, Klebian - how sure are you that Glork is scum, and why?

[dahen]

PJ:

I have read your posts carefully, don't worry. I've read why you think claiming early is not a pro-town tell. I also see that RB is a likely scum claim. However, RB is a very likely claim for an RB so you really can't turn that against Glork.

I have read Klebians post carefully, just as I try to read each post carefully. I am not satisfied with his hinting. I don't want to tell you more about this. It's more important for me to get the answers than it is that you understand everything I do at this point. I'll tell you exactly what I think when I've gotten the answers that I want. I want him to be more explicit and I don't want your questions to give him more hints than he needs.

Now, Klebian, please answer me so I can make PJ happy. I expect that you are competent enough not to get yourself modkilled in the process.

PJ, I have a todo list for this game already. If you want me to build a detailed case for or against VitR you have to wait. You can always read what I've posted in the past.

[dahen]

PJ. I hope you realize that you are about to completely destroy my plans regarding Klebian and VitaminR. I have explicitly asked VitaminR to be quiet about this and let Klebian do rest of the talking. I have reasons. Can I do my theories my way, please? I will not answer these questions of yours until this is sorted out.

Klebian - if you feel you need me to answer PJ's question in order to respond to me, then say so and I will consider it.

[dahen]

VitaminR: I still wish the opposite of PJ -- that you don't discuss this until Klebian has spoken. Please don't let PJ destroy this because he wants to know everything in the wrong order.

[dahen]

Fritz - If Glork turns up dead, then we know that the person Glork blocked didn't make the kill. But that doesn't confirm much unless we only think there is one scum left. Is that you?

Klebian - thanks for the PM answer. It was indeed what I was looking at. VitaminR hinted so heavily at this with his "missed the first round" that I thought anyone would be able to write that weapons might be a difference as you did. Your answer was now enough accurate that I believe that you have the Gorilla Soldier PM.

Since I believe that PJ also has this. This means that if we're looking for a two-scum setup with the assumption that SMs don't have our PM then it must be Fritzler+Glork, but as PJ said, they would have won by now. Frizler as only scum doesn't make sense, so the only possible option from the PM analysis is that Glork is the only scum. This can be good to know if we have a choice tomorrow, but I'll leave the PM's aside now.

We have all said that two scums are likely and based the reasoning on that. That's good. But I think that we also should take a look at the situation if we have only one scum left. In that case if we lynch right we win, but what happens if we mislynch? I'm not saying that is more important then looking at pairings; just that it shouldn't be neglected completely.

We will be 4 with 1 scum left tomorrow. A mislynch then and we lose. No-lynching at that point would bring us to 3 with 1 scum. Who would be left? I believe that PJ and myself would be killed, the rest is dependent on our lynches of course. Could you give this some thought while I drive to work?

[dahen]

I see you want some more responses from me. I'll try to answer your quick questions and leave the rest unanswered as I can't take much time from work to post these days.

Also, Dahen, explain to me how what you/VitaminR were hinting at was somehow "unaddressed" in role claims up until now.

I didn't remember your post 530. The idea of weapons strook me when I saw Glork's claim. I didn't realize that you had claimed the way you did already. However, I'm glad that you saved this question to me until after Vitamin and Klebian answered, since they might have missed it from your claim as well.

Do you still hold this opinion despite my most recent analysis on the problems of voting either Glork v Klebian when there are other alternatives?

I'm not sure of your wording. I might vote someone else than Glork and Klebian, so I am looking for alternatives, yes. But I don't have my opinion formed yet as I have read what everyone has written but not put it all together yet.

So now: care to answer why you thought the first was the "biggest difference" and not the second?

When I read Glork's claim, what struck me was that he didn't have weapons. It was quite unrelated to his claimed role and therefore a part I thought would be worded like my own PM.

Then VitaminR said he knew what I was thinking about. He said he missed the first round, which I think was a good crumb. The problem was that he then as a response to me said that he had crumbed. I examined his last post and it was easy to see that weapons might be a factor.

When Klebian then claims the difference, he says that weapons might be a difference but not significant enough. I don't think scum would have very much difficulty to decipher that from VitaminR's post. Therefore I pressured Klebian for more detail, making it possible to interpret it the wrong way if he had to be more precise.

The fact that Klebian claims to slaughter the crew was not what I was looking for. But thank you from pointing his exact wording out, which also speaks in his favor.

You seem to forget that this examine-PM idea I got came from Glork's claim, which contradicted my PM in that particular regard.

[dahen]

Dahen, I thought his wording was fairly clear.

Well, he asked about my opinion in relation to statement regarding votes.
My answer was that I consider other alternatives, but that isn't really an opinion. My opinion on who is scum and not is still under reconstruction.

I think the important thing here is that glork had many days and nights to think over this claim. What I can see happening is his scumgroup being stopped one night, and then masterchief dying the next day. After more days of no discussion of the no kill, glork finalized this claim, and now people are believing this and saying that there isn't really a viable alternative. I think that glork's claim, while seemingly good in terms of flavor (I'm pretty sure this is the consensus we've reached), is, as PJ says, very easy to have been faked.

Yes, I think Glork's claim is easy to fake. But that doesn't say much of the probability that it is fake.

PJ: I don't commit myself to posting at least every 24:th hour. I don't always have the time for that. It depends on the workload at work and at home, and I can't really tell ahead. Some days I only have time to read and do quick posts. Other days I have time to actually do some more complex thinking. And some days I don't have time to visit the site at all.

It would be a pity to be lynched because of this. Now I'm here though, and will try to check this frequently as we have a dead-line again.

You are right about putting pressure, though. And you are right that it we, the more or less unconfirmed should try to give you theories.

Let's go through this day again:
1. Glork claimed and voted Klebian
2. Fritzler followed and voted Klebian saying "we have time to come back and kill glork tomorrow"
3. Dahen FOSWITV Klebian, but wants Nightson to check in first.
4. VitaminR replaces nightson and reads up. No vote from Dahen waiting for result of read-up.
5. Fritzler unvotes Klebian saying "oops, I do think we're at lynch or lose". Was Fritzler distancing? Fritzler+Klebian possible as scum.
6. Glork unvotes to think the situation through. Now no-one is voting.
7. Dahen suggests Ensign is role-blocker.
8. VitR "I actually think Ensign fits roleblocker." VitR is thereby quite anti-Glork. I think he here tries to get a new wagon to start on Glork. This makes me think it's VitR+Klebian or Glork+Fritzler, although VitR+Fritzler also fits. Glork+VitR is possible, but unlikely.
9. PJ votes Glork.
10. VitR pushes Glork without voting. Could be distancing, but more likely wanting to create a wagon. Fits with a VitR+Klebian scum pairing. If Fritz or dahen would vote Glork now, VitR and Klebian could quicklynch and win, since there would be no RB alive. The same goes if we switch Klebian and Fritz.
11. Glork re-votes Klebian.
12. PJ unvotes Glork.
13. PJ votes VitR.
14. Glork suggest pairings as: Glork+VitR, Klebian+Fritz, Klebian+VitR, Anybody+Dahen. He doesn't mention Glork+Fritzler here.
15. PJ unvotes VitR and votes Glork.
16. Glork and PJ argues with lots of posts one day. No others involved.
17. Klebian's post #953 is weird. I don't know exactly if he is saying anything else that wanting dahen/Fritzler to talk. Why not dahen/Fritz/VitR, well, maybe because he want's a vote from dahen or Fritz in order to quick-lycnh.
18. Deadline 1 set.
19. Klebian votes Glork. Here we have two votes on Glork, making a quicklynch possible if VitR+Fritzler are scum. (feb 24, 1900 GMT+1)
20. PJ unvotes Glork and votes VitR. (It's the second time PJ changes Glork->VitR after Glork gets attention). Quicklynch with VitR+Fritzler no longer possible (feb 25, 22:26 GMT+1)
21. Klebian says "Glork, you do recall, that I haven't really trusted you since day 4?", but hasn't voted Glork until late in discussions.
22. Fritzler says he hates the game, but will probably end up voting Klebian. Interesting, since I see Fritz+Klebian as the only possible pair with Fritzler as scum.
23. Dahen gets back from vacation and starts his PM-theory.
24. VitR now votes Klebian! "I don't think I am going to end up voting anyone else." However, with the dead-line approaching, this could be a good strategy even as Klebian+VitR scum.
25. PJ switches back. Unvotes VitR, votes Glork. Quicklynch again possible if Frizler+VitR are scum. (feb 28 03:40 GMT+1)
26. dahen votes Klebian, thinking Fritzler+Klebian might be scum. Now quicklynching is possible even for Glork+Fritzler. (feb 28 15:05 GMT+1)
27. Fritzler asks Glork whom we would block if Klebian is scum, but doesn't vote. Speaks strongly against Glork+Fritzler as scum. They could have won here if they were scum.
29. PJ unvotes Glork
30. PJ says scum is Glork+VitR or Klebian+VitR. I agree, but think Klebian+Fritzler is more likely than Glork+VitR.
31. Glork unvotes. He thinks Kleb+Fritz is more likely than Kleb+VitR. If scum is Glork+VitR this is understandable.
32. PJ unvotes VitR
33. Deadline 2 set.
34. PJ states his 3 conditions and vote order: "Fritzler, VitR, Dahen, Glork, Klebian"
35. Fritzler votes VitR.
36. VitaminR confirms his vote on Klebian.
37. This post.

NOT scum:
Fritz+Glork
VitR+Fritz
Klebian+Glork

Possible scum:
VitR+Klebian,
Klebian+Fritzler

Unlikely, but possible:
Glork+VitR

Based on this Klebian looks as the vote.
However, taking into account the possibility that Glork might save us if we mislynch, I am open for a VitR lynch as well.

In that case, if we lynch VitR as town, then scum is Kleb+Fritz making it 50/50 for Glork. If we lynch VitR as scum, then he could still be scum with Klebian or Glork and we will have to guess right tomorrow.

Since I think Glork+VitR is less likely than 50% (see 8 above), I prefer a Klebian lynch, and thus

confirm vote: Klebian

.

As I said before, this requires PJ to change his mind. If he refuses, I will change my vote to VitR and blame PJ if we lose.

[dahen]

Glork: I still think two scums are the most likely situation.

[dahen]

Fritzler, Klebian and Glork on VitaminR already.
I guess you want to hammer him, PJ?

[dahen]

Of course, the fact that he tried to get me to vote for VitaminR myself was a black mark against him.

When did I do that? Do you mean my question if you would hammer him? That was an attempt to sound like I was giving up with my Klebian preference. I hoped it would make you think twice an extra round about lynching VitaminR. You did list him as the last person you wanted lynched, but if you take away the Glork+Fritzler combo by the reasoning you just did, then he in fact is the common denominator between Klebian+VitR and Klebian+Fritzler.

[dahen]

However, dahen took that post where you said that ensign makes sense as a roleblocker, and apparently didn't read the rest of it

Ok, sorry. It's true that I didn't read all posts completely when writing my last post. I thought I included the essentials.

But then, VitR, where do you stand? This post is a mess:

PJ, I do see the advantage of voting the common denominator, but it's not that clear to me who that would be.

If it's Glork, then it would be Glork - dahen.
If it's klebian, klebian - Fritzler seems most likely. Klebian - dahen would also be an option.

That would make dahen the choice for today. I'd lean towards Fritzler over dahen, though. I don't really find that choice any easier.

At this point, I feel most confident about a klebian vote (so I suppose you would see this as a confirm vote).

You say I'm the logical vote, but that you are leaning towards a Fritzler lynch and that you are most confident about a Klebian vote.

You didn't list Glork+Fritzler as a possible pair. Why not?

mod

: I second Glorks suggestion of retracted deadline.

[dahen]

Asking if I "wanted to hammer VitaminR" would be a good way to make sure you aren't role-blocked if you are scum. Getting townspeople to do your work for you is always the way scum would prefer to do things. Hence, black mark.

Do you think there is a chance on earth that Glork would block/claim to have blocked you in this game?

[dahen]

Dahen wrote:
...Glork+Fritzler...

Pay attention. If it were Glork + Fritzler, Fritzler would have hammered Klebian ages ago when he had the chance. I've pointed this exact same thing out elsewhere.

Now you are interferring again. I know what you are saying. I wanted to see VitR's response. The post I quoted was posted before this situation where Glork+Fritzler could hammer.

But if you hammered VitaminR, that would indicate a higher chance of you being scum, which could in turn make him block you. If you could (as scum) get me to hammer VitaminR-town and hence leave yourself clean of the bandwagon entirely, you would be guaranteed to do so.

I understand what you are saying but I don't believe it. I think Glork is just as skilled in reading as you are.

[dahen]

Sometimes it sucks to be asleep when all the fun happens.
I'm sorry if I helped in lynching the wrong guy.

[dahen]

Oh, I enjoyed this game too. But I like mafia for the multiple paths to victory. The combination of reading people, trying to figure out mechanics and speculate in the original setup.

Before I tried to get everything to match in a beautiful pattern, I was onto Glork and Nightson. I would appreciate if it would be possible to then think: A-ha, that explains this and that instead of thinking: Well, if it wasn't for this no-kill.

It would have been impossible to completely understand what was going on (planned equipment jamming on N4), no matter how hard we tried and how right we did things, which means that for this particular game, the correct strategy would be to disregard mechanics (except for the twist) and look for player behavior only, but to me, that's just half the game.

The twist was great, though. I enjoyed it very much and I liked how it kept teaing my mind until it was completely clear.

So thanks, Stoof.

[dahen]

The twist was great, though. I enjoyed it very much and I liked how it kept tea

s

ing my mind until it was completely clear.

Fixed. Does anyone want some tea?