Mini 50 (Newer York Confidential) Game Over!

[Night Stalker]

Is it possible that Fishbulb knew the papers would follow him, and didn't kill last night, which is why we only had one kill?

I'd give long odds against Rite being selected by a vig. I'm leaning towards believing we have a SK in this game.

Gslamm, why exactly do you say that? Why wouldn't a vigilante kill Rite?

[Night Stalker]

Final Fear - have you used your ability (or tried to) yet?

[Night Stalker]

Riven is innocent.

And this is convincing, how? You know this how? Am I missing something that gslamm saw to make him unvote Riven?

[Night Stalker]

You know, it's so nice to be in a game where I'm the slow poster....

Ok, instead of making up a role claim, I'm going to do something here that will quite possibly get me lynched, but could also win the game for the town, if my theories are correct.

First, my role claim. Unlike certain people in this game, I don't have anyone who will just step forward and claim I'm innocent. So I'm going to take a risk with the odd rules change we have here to post my role as it was sent to me from the mod:

Spike, Symphony Mafia Enforcer

You're in the mafia, sure.
And, ok, yes, you kill people.
But you're not actually a bad person, and you certainly aren't behind the
recent rash of killings. In fact, you want to stop them. By whatever means
necessary, including wiping out the Carnegie mafia, who probably -is- behind
the killings.

Each night, you -may- chose another player to kill. [Vigilante]

Your goal is to stop the murderers.

Now, don't lynch me just yet.

Just like the Carnegie maifa, my mafia was also told it was innocent, and that someone else was doing the killings. Due to my role info, I'm inclined to believe that the Carneigie mafia aren't the ones behind the killings either. So, then, who is?

Some things to consider:

1) The mod is evil. (In a fun way.) This game obviously isn't operating along the usual lines.

2) I don't know who the other members of my mafia are. Given that there are only two members of the Carnegie mafia (or so they claim) I wouldn't be surprised if I was the only other memeber of the Symphony mafia aside from PBug.

3) If it's not the two mafias who are behind the killings, who is? When I first joined the game at the end of night one and read the thread, my first guess was that it's the cops. After all, if the mafia are innocent, maybe that's backward too... But unless FinalFear is lying about his role claim, it isn't the cops either. (Unless the corrupt cops are a seperate entity.)
There's also gslamm and Fishbulb, but at least we know their names, which gives me at least some little clue about their actual roles.
So that leaves Riven and Coolbot, of whom all we know about is that they're connected to each other - and nothing else. Perhaps they're a new mafia in town who want to kill off the competition?

FOS: Riven and CoolBot.

I've revealed my role - will they reveal thiers?


4) Since we have a special dispensation to copy our PMs from the mod, I challenge everyone to reveal their roles. After all, the innocent have nothing to fear.

[Night Stalker]

Ok. Who did I kill? I could very easily say I haven't killed anyone, and most of you would probably believe me. At very least, I'd probably not get lynched today.
Instead, since I'm pro-town, I will tell the truth, just so you don't waste time looking for a second killer.

I killed Rite on night two. I killed him because I thought he was scum. He was acting odd, jumping to what I felt were wrong conclusions, and the way he jumped on the PbUG (who I'm 99% sure is innocent.) bandwagon at the last second convinced me. In my defense, I only had time to read through the thread once, as the mod asked me to join and to give my night choices RIGHT AWAY, so the day could dawn before he left for vacation.

Mneme, please confirm this!

The person who I took over for killed Tigris on the first night. Why did he do a vigilante kill blind? I have no clue, since I'm not him. But - he's new to the board, he's only ever posted once, and that's in this thread. He's probably a newbie to the game, and didn't know enough to at least wait one day before killing.


Now, before you run off and lynch me, please remember that I'm already being unvoted, and could have easily have lied and said I didn't kill anyone. But I didn't lie - because I'm pro town.

That said, it looks like FinalFear has already decided to use his night kill on me anyway. Go ahead. But I want you to take a close look at my death message. Notice how both people I killed (ok, I killed one, Viagrostultega killed the other, but still...) have the message "Killed by a lone asssassin"? If my death message comes up "Pulverized by several machine gunners" then you know FinalFear was behind that kiling too - and you have your killer.



An updated role list:

• gslamm - "Friendly" - Claims cop, and can investigate.
  Fishbulb - "Neighbor" - can do background checks.
  
  Riven - claims "reporter"
  Coolbot - Claims "researcher"
  
  FinalFear - Claims cop/vigilante.
  Night Stalker/Viarostultega - Symphony Mafia - claims Vig.
  
  Someone/jasonpingpong - Carnegie Mafia - claims Mason.
  JazzRed - Carnegie Mafia - claims Mason.

THE DEAD:

• Tigris - Cop
  PolarBoy - Crooked Cop
  PbUG - Symphony Mafia bodyguard (doctor)
  Rite - Thief

Some thoughts:

1) "Pulverized by several machine gunners" seems to indicate more then one killer in the group.

2) Have you noticed we have 4 non-cop investigative roles? A (dead) thief (I'm assuming this one, based on his death description), a researcher, a journalist and whatever Fishbulb is. That's already ONE THIRD of the players. If the cops (gslamm, at least, if not the other two who died on night 1) could also investigate, that would make the game a bit unbalanced, wouldn't it?
Fishbulb, what exactly are you?

3) On night 1, there were two kills, one by me. One night 2, there was one kill, by me. What happened to the machine gunners? I assumed (and probably everyone else did too) that there was a successful doctor protection - except that NO ONE HAS CLAIMED DOC. So what happened to the second night kill?

4) The fact that no one has claimed doctor lends credence to PBug's claim of being the doc. And if PBug is really the doc, then it stands to follow that I'm really the vigilante.

5) If it's not one or two of our "investigators", or the cops - they the Carnegie mafia is lying, and they're not really a mason group.

5) One more possibility. The mod is evil. Could it be - just possibly - that their is no "mafia" or killers? That it's all some sort of twisted mob mentallity, that everyone truly thinks everyone else is an evil murderer, but they're righteous vigilantes? Of course, if that's the case, I'm not quite sure how the town will win - perhaps all we can do is give peace a chance, and not kill anyone tonight...

Anyway, let me close with saying - don't lynch me. I won't kill tonight, unless asked to by the town. If I do kill, you can kill me tomorrow.

[Night Stalker]

Bad logic. PBuG admitted to being a protective role

for the symphony Mafia.

Never stated who he "protected."

DAY

one. And out of game stated he hoped he was on the town side next time. I believed at least part of your role claim, but loose conclusions like this are really stretching it. Yes I wonder about the one kill night two but since we "seem" to have a inordinate number of investigative roles, maybe thats the set-up.

Not true. He says, straight out:

I do the same as the pro-town doctor.

On top of that, being that I'm appearently the only other member of the Symphony maifa, and that he implies that, just like me, he doesn't even know who the other Symphony mafia members are - is he more likely to have a role that consists of beign doctor for the Symphony mafia, or is his role more likely to be the doctor for the entire town?

[Night Stalker]

Last night we only had one killing, and Night Stalker has already taken the credit for that. If he is just a vigilante, he can choose not to kill tonight, and then we won't have a kill.

Uhm, not that I'm trying to get you to lynch me, but if I was mafia, couldn't I also choose not to kill?

Did all the cops know who each other were? It appears that Fishbulb and gslamm, at very least, knew each other. Did you know FinalFear, Tigris, and PolarBoy? FinalFear, who did you know was a cop when the game started?

[Night Stalker]

I'm in favor of the no lynch, but I think we should hold it off until we get answers to some more questions.


One thing that hasn't been asked: What's the role of the "corrupt cop"(s)? If the mafia is innocent, then they'd be my guess as the machine gunners - except a corrupt cop was killed by the machine gunners on night 1.

It seems from his death scene that Captian Happy was in the pay of the Carnegie mafia. Someone, JazzRed, what can you tell us about his role and his connection with your mafia?

(AFAIK, there's no corrupt cop associated with the Symphony Mafia...)

[Night Stalker]

If this game really is backwards, and the mafia are pro-town and the cops are killers... then a corrupt cop would be one who'd be helping the mafia stop the cops from murdering everyone. And the other cops would want to kill him...

[Night Stalker]

Rereading the thread, I noticed something at the very begining:

Newer York, a quiet town. Actually, it's never been quiet -- Newer York has always had
mafia. But things haven'g been this violent for a while. Recently, there's been a rush of mafia killings, so the citizens of Newer York have decided to get together, and kill their own,

Until the Killings Stop

[Emphisis mine.]

So, if we don't lynch anyone today - and no one kills tonight - it looks like we've fufilled our win condition!

As I promised, I'm going to withhold my kill tonight. FinalFear, please do the same. If my "Mod is evil" theory is correct, we might just be able to win tomorrow. And if not, our multitude of investigators will be able to report their results tomorrow.

Since I'm out of questions:

Vote: No Lynch

[Night Stalker]

Before everyone starts blaming me for last nights kill, check the first page.

Compare:

My kills:

Tigris (Lt. Niceguy, Cop): Killed by a lone asssassin on night 1
Rite(Shards, Thief): Killed by a lone assassin on night 2

Last nights kill:

CoolBot(Jenny, Researcher): Killed by a mafia-style assassination on night 3

IT WASN'T ME.


Other matters:

Riven: Did you actually interview Sgt. Friendly and Capt. Happy for the paper? Or was that just flavor text?

I'm gonna wait to hear the investigation results before I put forth my theories...

I'll be away for the weekend, so don't yell at me for not posting.

[Night Stalker]

Ok. We've had a night worth of research, and I'm even more confused then I was yesterday.


Here's my thoughts on each player.

Riven: Posted a role claim, and backed it up. I'm inclined to believe him. (her?) Doesn't show any signs of being evil or insane. The only non-cop investigator left. The only weird thing is some typos in your role claim. It would suck to get lynched because the mod made a typo...

CARNIGIE

JazzRed: "Ex" Mobster? You're not even mafia anymore, you're "ex-mafia"? I'm starting to get the feeling that even if you're pro-town, your win condition requires me to be dead.
If there weren't so many investigators vouching for you, you'd be at the top of my suspicios list.

Someone: Same as JazzRed, only quieter and less suspicious. Hasn't posted today, for that matter.

Remember, Riven invesitgated them on Night 2 (when there wasn't a "mafia" kill) and not last night, when there was.

THE COPS

When I first joined this game, after reading the thread, I found myself thinking "if both mafias are innocent... then maybe the cops are the killers?"

Gslamm: If you're guilty, you've done an excellent job acting innocent. I find you far less suspicious then your police compatriots. Still, someone I trust has fingered you as guilty. And how do you know Mneme is a classical musican? Even if he is, that doesn't make him a perfect typist.

FishBulb: You haven't been acting suspiciously either. And, durring the day, you haven't acted in concert with Gslamm, you're likely partener if you are mafia. Which could just be a sign of two clever mafia members...

FinalFear: The most suspicious behaving of the cops. (Not to mention he voted me today.). On the other hand, he had the guts to post his role. Based on that and his name, he seems less likely to be part of the killing team then our other two cops.


If all three cops are mafia, and we don't lynch one today, they win the game tomorrow morning.

I'm half tempted to leave gslamm be for now, and lynch one of the other cops. But the evidence and the momentum seem to be on him. Still, gslamm, before I vote for you, I want to see your role. Post it, please. You still have a chance to convince me...

Has anyone else seen or read LA Confidential? The cops start murdering the mafia... so they can take over all the rackets.

[Night Stalker]

I'm surprised at all this doubt that I have the ability to kill at night. What possible reason would I have to take credit for two kills that everyone assumed were mafia, if I couldn't kill?

At the same time, "testing" FinalFear's "vigilante" ability by having him try to kill me tonight is counter-productive. If he is mafia, I'll wind up just as dead as if he's the vig, and it'll just look like the mafia didn't do a kill last night...

[Night Stalker]

However, if FinalFear doesn't believe me, I'll be more then happy to prove it to him personally this night.

[Night Stalker]

Gslamm, perhaps we just don't want to rush to lynch this late in the game?

With that in mind:

I say this:

vote: Riven

for some reason, i believe he's pro-killing-everyone-in-the-game.

don't ask me why.

You're voting without a reason at this stage? Are you nuts? Or just mafia?

BIG FOS: FinalFear

Expect a long post when I get the chance, things are busy IRL right now...

[Night Stalker]

Forgive me for partly going over reasoning I've posted already, but it's a good way of thinking things out.

It seems to me that unless the mod is deliberately trying to fool us, PolarBoy and Coolbot were murdered by at least two people. That being the case, who are the logical pairs in the game?

JazzRed and Someone

are the most obvious pair, except they were cleared by two seperate investigators. I suppose it's possible that both of those investigators are incompetent, or worse, lying, and are actually mafia themselves - but if they're actually mafia, then JR and Someone wouldn't be mafia. (4 mafia would mean the game would be already over.) So, as much as my role wants them to be the guilty parties, they're probably not.

Riven

Who would Riven pair with? Coolbot? Me? "Mafia Reporter"? I suppose Riven could be paired with one of the cops ("Police Reporter") but that seems a bit unintuitive. Riven is most probably innocent - and most probably competent.

Gslamm, Fishbulb, and FinalFear

The cops. By process of elimination, they're looking like the most plausable suspects now. If it is the cops - is it just two of them, or all three? If it's all three, which is a possibility - we have to kill one today, or they'll win, come morning. If it's two - more likely - then even blind guessing will be likely to catch a mafia. And we're not guessing blindly - an investigator has come foward and fingered one of the cops as being with a murder victim last night.

So...

Vote: Gslamm

.

----------------------------------

There's the possibility of illogical pairs we wouldn't be able to intuit (say, Someone and Fishbulb, as a random example) but the mod is evil, not insane.

And yes, it's quite possible I'm a serial killer. But even if I am (and I'm not), I'm a known quantity who can be lynched at the end - while the mafia are a threat NOW.

[Night Stalker]

If you're intending for me to kill FinalFear, perhaps it would be wise for Riven to investigate Fishbulb instead?

[Night Stalker]

Wow. That was the first game I've played where my night choice could have won or lost the game for the town. After all, if FinalFear was mafia, he wouldn't be just inviting me to kill him, right?

I assumed the mod was eviler then he actually was - I thought Fishbulb was probably evil, despite being cleared by Riven on night 1.

Gslamm - how was my role too poweful? I was an ordinary vig - handicapped by a role that called me Mafia. And how did you know Mneme was a musician?

Thanks for not lynching me, guys, despite having every reason to do so. I took a huge gamble coming clean, and it paid off.

Oh, and since the mod said we could quote him in this game, I'm gonna abuse it to brag just a drop:

night1stalker: ... I did it!
night1stalker: I solved it!
mnemesys: oh, you had it down first night, pretty much. scared the crap out of me.

[Night Stalker]

Two of those mafia were trying to lynch me the whole game, and actually lynched PBuG. In their role descriptions they say we're the killing mafia, making us even more likely to lynch us.

Thought now that I think of it, the other times I played vig, it was once every two or three nights.

And mneme is a musician IRL.

[Night Stalker]

FinalFear asked me to kill him.

Also, I figured if you were both mafia, killing him would give me the best chance of not getting lynched the next day.

If he wasn't mafia, the Carnigies would be a more likely target to be lynched then me. But I still wanted to lessen the chances. That way, I could take out the last mafia that night.