Space Monkey Mafia: GAME OVER!

[Fritzler]

oops, I do think we're at lynch or lose

unvote

lets figure out what to do, there are probably 2 scum left

[Mr Stoofer]

New Page Vote Count

klebian: 1 (Glork)

Not voting: dahen klebian petroleumjelly VitaminR Fritzler

It will take 4 to push someone out of the airlock!

[Glork]

1.) How many Space Monkeys do you think are left?
2.) Do you think the Space Monkeys have any abilities?
3.) Given the answers to above, do you think a Lynch or a No-Lynch is strategically better with 6 players alive?

1) I'm thinking that there are two SMs left, so we are at LyLo unless I can block a kill. There might be one plus a traitor, if SpeedyKQ's death wasn't planned. Otherwise, I'd guess that it's two SMs in cahoots still.
2) I don't think that they have any abilities. I don't really have anything to back this up, but I just find it unlikely.
3) Okay, here's why I would lynch today: If Klebian dies as scum, there'll be 5 players left. I'll flat-out state whether I'm blocking Fritz or Nightson (as I still believe dahen is town). If there's a kill, we lynch whichever player I did not block. If there is no kill, we will still have 5 players left, which means we can lynch both Nightson and Fritzler anyway without too much concern (so scum can't no-kill to try to trick us into losing). The only way we lose is if Klebian isn't scum and I can't block a kill. And I'm banking on that not being the case. (By the way, if Klebian is lynched as town, I will more-or-less randomly determine who I decide to block, so that the scums can't try to outguess me.)

[klebian]

Here's a few questions for everybody:

1.) How many Space Monkeys do you think are left?
2.) Do you think the Space Monkeys have any abilities?
3.) Given the answers to above, do you think a Lynch or a No-Lynch is strategically better with 6 players alive?

I would like confirmation from either VitaminR [Nightson], Fritzler, or Klebian to see if any of them can verify being role-blocked.

1) 2. I'm pretty sure two.
2) I don't think that space monkeys have abilities; I'm in accordance with speedykq being just a... red herring? Is that the right word?
3) I had actually typed out a post asking whether no-lynch was beneficial, but I didn't post it, because I realized that I don't see much benefit coming out of this. Unless glork blocks a kill, which I don't believe will happen, I think that you would be killed tonight. I know glork, fritz, nightson, and I won't be killed, and I doubt that dahen will be killed over you. So No lynch wouldn't get us any 'information'. I'm however now curious why there was no kill n4. It's possible that scum purposely nokilled, but I don't find this likely.

[petroleumjelly]

2) I don't think that they have any abilities. I don't really have anything to back this up, but I just find it unlikely.

You consider having a "Godfather Ability" as an ability, don't you? Or do you just consider that a "perk"?

[petroleumjelly]

Dahen, please answer my questions. I have a couple things I want to explore after these as it is, so everybody should plan on staying active for the remainder of the game. I will not be merciful when it comes to prodding or replacements. We are probably at or near endgame with only six players left, and the last thing I want at this point is

another

deadline to rush us through the day.

[Glork]

2) I don't think that they have any abilities. I don't really have anything to back this up, but I just find it unlikely.

You consider having a "Godfather Ability" as an ability, don't you? Or do you just consider that a "perk"?

I was thinking in terms of actively used abilities. Yes, I do think that Klebian is a Godfather. So if you consider that an "ability" then I'd amend my previous statement.

[petroleumjelly]

Do you think Dahen is automatically town even though there is no investigation on him, Glork?

[Glork]

I think that his earlier hint-dropping is a huge plus for him, and I think that he's attempted to be much more helpful than either Nightson or Fritzler.

[petroleumjelly]

And what if there are Space Monkey traitors? Or what if the Space Monkeys are actually separated? This would completely invalidate Dahen's crumb.

[petroleumjelly]

^ Or if scum had a sample Townie PM, come to think on it.

[Glork]

Some interesting theories there, PJ. Did these just come to mind recently?

The only one I'd really give serious consideration to is the "Dahen might be a Space Monkey traitor" notion. I suppose we have to consider the possibility that scum might have recruited a traitor N4. That would certainly be throwing me in for a loop. I want to hear from Dahen on this matter.

I find the "separated SMs" theory unlikely based on a couple of things. Off the top of my head, I would have expected more crosskillings (or no-killings, if players were recruited) based on that theory, though I might be wrong on that point. Also, the "uninformed minority" versus "uninformed majority" -- even if the minority has a potential kill -- is not a mechanic that I think works very well, and I would not expect Stoof to make a setup like that. Then again, he's already pulled a fast one, so playing outguess the mod is probably not a terrific idea.

I also doubt that the scums were given a sample Townie PM. Like I indicated earlier in the game, Stoof traditionally gives a Townie win condition, but I certainly don't expect him to give them any more information by which they could easily "confirm" themselves. We've had enough trouble discerning scum from town as is, and giving the sucms the ability to quote soldier-ness and traitor-esque flavor/clauses is a little overboard, IMO.

Now that I think about it, I suppose a very clever SM-Dahen might have gone "Hmm, I bet the townspeople all think that they're Traitors. I'll drop hints as if I'm one, too." But my gut is telling me that this is not the case. No offense to Dahen, but I don't think he's that clever; it's something I might have seen from, say, CES... but not Dahen.


There are two other things that make me think that Dahen is probably town. First of all, he hasn't played as though he's pseudo-confirmed, which is what I'd expect a scumbag to do. In his most recent analysis, for example, he included his own voting/posting records in his most recent analysis. His play also vaguely reminds me of Mini 358, the last game we were in together. His most recent post in particular reminds me of the way he would talk with Devo and myself, when he *was* a confirmed innocent.

[Glork]

Unvote

I want to think about this more.

[dahen]

Dahen, please answer my questions.

Calm down, I'm in a different time zone. I have every intention to be active in this game.

1.) How many Space Monkeys do you think are left?
2.) Do you think the Space Monkeys have any abilities?
3.) Given the answers to above, do you think a Lynch or a No-Lynch is strategically better with 6 players alive?

1.) Well, obviously one or two. Assuming SpeedyKQ was a red herring, we would have three or four real SM:s of 18 players (17 without Speedy). Two differences from normal games is the abnormal start which didn't get a Gorilla lynched N1 (it was like starting in day) and the confusions from the role reversal. The first is in towns favor, while the latter benefits scum. Four SM:s in this setup without SK seems fair, which concludes two remaining scum.
2.) No, I don't. (If the red herring theory is incorrect, then we have to account for SpeedyKQ as doc even if that feels weird with no appearant Gorilla vigs. To continue this track, Speedy was revealed as doc, while the Gorillas are reveled as coded roles. I think this fits well with Speedy being a red herring.)
I believe a SM GF is unlikely.
3.) I'm in favor of a lynch.

I've been thinking a lot about MC and the fact that he could "impersonate the enemy". What does that mean? He couldn't have known the identities of the true scum, because why wouldn't he just tell us (unless he wasn't allowed to, in which case we should look for crumbs or consider MC stupid). No, I don't think MC knew scum. Then did scum believe MC to be scum? That would only make sense if scum don't know each others. However, I think they do. I'm not sure how night kills would be chosen otherwise. So, what about MC as miller? Meaning he would turn up as SM on a Thok investigation. It doesn't fit. Millers are poor things. MC was an officer (albeit of lowest rank).

But MC has to have an ability related to scum, since he could impersonate them. What if he could block? Glork thinks doc is inappropriate for an Ensign, but he says nothing about MC as a possible role blocker.

Glork claims Captain, which is logical if we assume the ranking "Ensign-Lieutnant-Captain". But we know our Lieutnant was a cop. Would a captain be a blocker? It's possible, but I believe that a cop is much more valuable than a blocker, which makes it reversed to the ranking.

MC claimed SM and stuck to it. Not even when he realized he was getting lynched did he claim otherwise. Did he really think he was scum at that point needing to fake claim? What possible ability could he have and still think that he was scum?

Maybe he didn't have an ability. Maybe he was a backup cop. The rank Ensign is today replaced by second lieutenant. So if Thok would die as first lieutenant, MC would take over as second lieutenant (ensign). But in that case scum either no-killed with a claimed cop around or was blocked but believed they had a doc around (since otherwise the next night another scum would go for Thok).

Arrgh, head spinning. Half is against Glork, half is pro-Glork. I'm posting this now and will continue the reasoning later.

[VitaminR]

Hmm, dahen, that's a good point. I actually think Ensign fits roleblocker. I don't see why Masterchief didn't just claim that then, though. Even if he thought he was a scum roleblocker, claiming no abilities doesn't make any sense.

[Glork]

Uh... the whole "MC impersonating the enemy" thing was a play on the fact that he claimed to be a Space Monkey when he was Gorilla and we were asking him which one he was.



At least, that's the way I've interpreted it this whole time.



Here's the line, for reference:

Not much is known about the training that officers receive at the Gorilla's Officer Training School, but it obviously includes impersonating the enemy. Perhaps they should introduce reading into the curriculum?

The last line/question indicates that MC's play was a rather significant mistake, I think, and that Stoof was poking a fun at him for not reading what was going on.

[Glork]

The idea of a backup cop makes much more sense to me; as Dahen indicated, the rank Ensign is now Second Lieutenant, which fits a backup Cop role.

[Glork]

Hm... what if MC was a vig? It might explain why he still thought he was scum (either a separated Gorilla killing people off, or maybe he thought he was an SK). It would also give credibility to the existence of a Space Monkey Doctor.

[klebian]

Well, MC being a vig gives credibility to SpeedyKQ not being a red herring too. However, inhim not being scum makes me think that speedy definitely was a red herring, and his role as well.

[Glork]

I'm confused. What does inHim have to do with Speedy being a red herring?

[klebian]

you claimed to have blocked inhim night 1. As inhim was not scum, and we don't appear to have a doc, there couldn't have viably been a kill of speedykq unless he was a red herring.

[Glork]

Oh, I see.


Hm. Good point.

[klebian]

actually, then i see no reason why only scum died unless mod was tricking us. Yeah, never mind. I'm pretty sure speedy's a herring, regardless of mc's ability.

[Glork]

PJ, what are your thoughts on the current situation?

[petroleumjelly]

What are

my

thoughts? That this game is confusing.

On the one hand, I seriously wonder if Stoofer would give this set-up only 3 total Space Monkeys (not including SpeedyKQ). Looking at his open set-up in the New York forum [face-to-face], there are only 3 scum out of 15 players in an open set-up with 3 guaranteed power roles. This game was probably 17 players... except here, the town started with a

huge

disadvantage in that we all thought we were scum, which could account for the extra 2 players [17 - 15 = 2].

On the other hand, it seems safest to assume there are 2 Space Monkeys remaining simply so that we lynch as carefully as possible. I can't decide if I think there is a Space Monkey Godfather at this point, because I think the scum already had a large enough advantage over the town without having one, but I also think Thok's role was strong enough that Stoofer must have accounted for it [though if there is no Gorilla Doctor, that would do so automatically in the first place].

Your role-claim was fairly predictable. You had already hinted at having power (with the "your role claim

seems

to check out" comment towards me earlier, which tells me that you probably didn't know the flavor for a Gorilla Soldier), but I would expect that same type of comment from

scum

who doesn't know the exact flavor for a Gorilla Soldier. Given the dead roles, if

I

were fake-claiming, I

also

would have fake-claimed Captain, and since Thok had died, claiming Cop or Doctor was pretty much out of reach for you. Vigilante would make no sense, Back-Up wouldn't make sense from your position, which really leaves Role-Blocker as your only viable option. The only thing in your favor is that you claimed to block Fritz/Nightson before they had claimed, which would leave you open for potential counter-claims, but at the same time it could be that one of them is your partner and thereby naturally would not dispute your information.

In general, I'm mostly trying to decide whether or not I believe you. If I do, I will still have to decide whether or not that means I think Klebian is scum, and if I don't, we both know who I'll be pushing on today (unless I decide No-Lynch is preferable).