Mini 368: Town Of Suspicion - Game over!

[LuckayLuck]

1. M4yhem is scum. I know this for a fact, because I expect to have lost already if this wasn't true. Mariyta (PJ) is an extremely clear villager voting M4yhem. And while you all don't know this, I am a villager. So from my point of view, I already know that M4yhem is scum.

2. The interesting question is, if the mith vs M4yhem argument is staged between two scum or not. I believe that tomorrow, after we have lynched M4YHEM (not mith), this argument will be a central WIFOM topic to discuss. They have both said some pretty unfriendly things to each other that I feel are genuinely meaning that they are not on the same team together.

3. IF THEY ARE NOT ON THE SAME TEAM...then ChannelDelBird is OBVIOUS SCUM. Because if CDB was a townie, we'd have already lost.

[pablito]

LL, please provide your evidence for point #1. I think I know where you're pulling this info from, but I still don't buy your argument.

I'm tempted to vote M4yhem, but there still lingers the possibility that LL and Mariyta are scum together and if I put a M4yhem vote then someone will come in and quickvote the game into oblivion.

Those two votes were very quick and I don't understand how it all came about.

However, I will note that I've revised my list. Thok is now on the bottom. Bump everyone else up one notch.

[LuckayLuck]

Pablito: Unless you think that BOTH myself and Mariyta are scum, then M4yhem is scum, unless you think that the mafia are reaaaalllly biding their time. That's it.

[pablito]

I think it's a possibility.

[mith]

If it’s such a bad argument, how come you are only pulling me up about it now? You seemed perfectly happy when I used a similar version of this argument against Thok and Al.

Because you're using it against me?

That, or because the two versions aren't similar at all. There, you found them suspect for being on your lynch. And if all you were saying today is "mith was on my wagon, that makes me suspicious of him", I wouldn't be calling it Crap Logic™. What I'm calling Crap Logic™ is:

Blah blah blah assumption blah assumption blah, therefore you

must

be scum.[/i]

But when I use it against you, suddenly it’s the worst argument you’ve ever heard?

Don't put words in my mouth. Unless you do it in a mocking paraphrasish way. I never said it was the worst.

That’s how people make arguments in mafia. Unless you’re a cop there are no definites.

I'm not sure why you're telling me this. That's exactly what I've been saying.

(I like when people agree with me in an argumentative manner.)

What I find suspicious behavior, again, is that you are presenting a conclusion based on assumptions (and at least one outright lie) as a definite. (And, now, that you are trying

argue

that there are no definites, rather than admitting I was right.)

I haven’t forgotten him. Don’t you worry.

How does this even qualify as a response to what I said? Eesh. Let's break it down:

1. Was Rosso on your lynch?
2. Did LL replaces Rosso?
3. Do you have LL listed on your scum list (810)?
4. Has LL been "eliminated for various reasons"?
5. Has everyone who voted for M4yhem1 other than me been "eliminated"?

These are not exactly difficult questions. Now, either you agree with my answers to them (in which case you must then logically agree with my conclusion, that your original argument that I must be scum is bogus), or you don't. Which is it?

Lies.

I assume that you're saying I wouldn't be justified in voting for you under these circumstances (remembering the context, that you are accusing me of hesitating out of fear of being exposed) - if you're calling me a liar for any of the other statements quoted... well, you're a moron.

Somebody

has to vote first. What, were we all going to sit around until the deadline and then vote?

But wait! This doesn't have anything to do with me being justified in voting for you! I wasn't even attacking you for voting first.

So, I'll ask you more clearly, so I can get a definitive answer, rather than nonsensical rhetoric:

1. Do you think before you speak? (ok, this one is rhetorical.)
2. Do you really believe that anyone would have thought it odd if I had voted for you immediately, given the circumstances?

As for the Thok thing, I’m not saying it’s a coincidence.

Ok...

What I am saying is that it’s not a sinister scum brainwashing plot which is what you appear to be implying.

What I am "implying" is that it

might

be a rather subtle scum tactic. I believe I also said it might have been a mistake.

While I'm here...

Mith-it was a "

Thok doesn't want to include himself

in a hypothetical argument/for some reason,

more people seem convinced of Mari/PJ being protown

than Thok being protown".

The hypothetical was based on LL's because I was trying to mimic LL's thought process.

...I am pretty much assuming the townieness of PJ...

I think LL could use process of elimination here; if hypothetically LL was townie, thought there were 3 scum here, thought

me

and pablito were

townie

s and felt that at most one of mith/CB were scum, then he'd be force to conclude that M4yhem and

Mari

are also

scum

. Of course, we can't use that logic, since we don't know LL's alignment. But I can see where he might be coming from.

Emphasis mine. My point, which you didn't address at all, is that your "hypothetical" is exactly the same as LL's actual argument, except that he's calling Mari/pj innocent (and ignoring you), and you're calling Mari/pj scum (and calling yourself innocent). And now your reason for doing so (that everyone finds Mari/pj more pro-town than you)

doesn't fit what happened

.

And now, back to our regularly scheduled M4yhem bashing, already in progress.

You don’t make stuff up as scum?

I don't fabricate

arguments

, no. I'll note that while you quoted me verbatim through most of my post, you left the quotes out here. Convenient, for the little strawman you threw up.

Show me one instance of where I’ve made stuff up. Go on, I dare you.

See also: the rest of this post.

[LuckayLuck]

Okay. This entire mith-M4yhem exchange is either really good acting on mith's part, or, I have to believe the more likely scenario that they're on opposite teams. It would require further research, but initial mindset here is that mith is surprisingly, townie.

Which means, M4yhem is a scumbag, and ChannelDelBird pretty much gave himself up by voting for mith alongside M4yhem, since we haven't lost yet.

[pablito]

Let's see what happens when it's lynch minus one.

vote: M4yhem

[M4yhem]

unvote, Vote: M4yhem

Go team!

[Mariyta]

Nice

[Kelly Chen]

Vote count

4 - M4yhem (Mariyta, LuckayLuck, pablito, M4yhem)

1 - mith (ChannelDelibird)

Not voting: Thok, mith

With 7 alive it is 4 to lynch!

M4yhem is scum!! Great sleuthing, town!

M4yhem -

mafia goon

- lynched Day 3

Night choices please. I'd like them in 72 hours please!

[Kelly Chen]

Day 4

THOK has died. On his person you find a wonky taser. A pro-town one.

Thok -

limited roleblocker

- killed Night 3


And with 5 alive, it is 3 to lynch.


Also: This day is autodeadlined tentatively for

Wednesday March 14

, four weeks from today. I'll lop off a week if nothing is happening.


Go get those scum, town of suspicion!

[Mariyta]

Mmk. Mith, are you scum?

[mith]

I'm not scum. Are you?

I don't have much time right now (the ongoing saga of The Leak continues), so I'll keep this brief and do some analysis tomorrow.

1. Assuming there was a group of three to start with, my current best guess at the remaining group is: CD, LL.

2. Having said that, I still consider any of the other five pairings (CD/Mari, CD/pablito, LL/Mari, LL/pablito, Mari/pablito) as possibilities. Rushing into a decision is a bad idea. There is no reason to vote until we have come to some sort of consensus; early voting just leaves us open to a quick-lynch.

3. I would like everyone else to post their best guess in their next post.

[LuckayLuck]

Guys: today is really easy

1 - mith (ChannelDelibird)

M4yhem would not have voted for himself if he knew that there was any chance of mith getting voted off. That CDB vote on mith was on for a long time. Mafia could have easily "won" if mith was evil.

so, mith if a townie.
so, CDB is a mafia.

Vote: ChannelDelibird <--- I kept this unbolded on purpose, so we have some time to discuss


The hard part is tomorrow, with 3 left. I consider pablito very clear, I consider Mariyta very clear. And I just cleared mith.

Obviously, one of my clearances is incorrect. Very incorrect. I think I'll do a re-read, under the assumption that we vote off CDB and he turns up mafia.

At this point, I consider mith MORE CLEAR than both pablito and Mariyta. One of them has been doing a bang-up acting job. Off the top of my head, I suspect PABLITO because (and this is sort of cheap, admittedly, but would PJ leave a game which he was winning so much? Probably not, he must be townie. Plus, PJ has been very townie.)

CDB + Pablito.

[Mariyta]

You make some very interesting points. Pab keeps gnawing at the corner of my mind as well, so I'm more interested in him than CDB right now.

[pablito]

Sure, I think CDB is probably the right choice today.

My thoughts are two of mith, CDB and LL are scum.

I think LL might be scum for trying to reopen the pabs case. But in reality, mith tried to open that doubt yesterday, so LL is only continuing someone else's logical progression. However, LL usually proxies only to those who thinks is extremely extremely pro-town. And I don't think he really thinks mith passed that threshold yet.

I also do not think that mith should be cleared from any discussion yesterday post-claimage. I would not hold it past mith to start arguing and trying to bus his partners.

Actually, after just having said all that, I think it's LL + mith. I find it highly unlikely that LL would start the pabs doubt unless it was due to some night-talking. Based on metagaming, I'm fairly sure it's LL.

I'm not so sure abouth mith, think that CDB could be a safe choice, but the way that LL is pushing the CDB case makes me think that we should take our time before we go. We're always in lynch-and-lose, so we're pretty much screwed all the way.

[pablito]

Wait, yesterday was four to lynch. I'm not sure if two scum would've been on a scum lynch. I think CDB + mith is most likely, but doubt lingers on LL + mith.

Therefore, I think I want to lynch mith today.

[LuckayLuck]

Feb. 6: M4yhem votes for Mith.
Feb. 6: Mariyta votes for M4yhem.
Feb. 6: LL votes for M4yhem.
Feb. 6: CDB votes for Mith.

======= 4 days Pass =======

Feb. 10: Pablito votes for M4yhem.
Feb. 11: M4yhem votes for M4yhem.


THERE IS A FOUR DAY DIVIDE WHERE IF THE TWO SCUM JUST VOTE FOR MITH, THEY WIN. (Unless CDB is a scum, which he is). THERE IS ACTUALLY MORE OF A CHANCE - M4yhem VOTES FOR HIMSELF. Why would he do that unless he knew there was no chance that Mith was getting lynched?

Mith is clearly a townie. If mith is actually scum, then whatever, we should have lost yesterday.

[LuckayLuck]

Wait, what?
I just realized that if Mith is scum that the voting works out too so that Mtih isn't auto-cleared.

I sort of subconsciously eliminated Mith from being scum due to the Mith-M4yhem argument yesterday. Anyways, lemme go check up on if the Mith-M4yhem argument was staged or was genuine. (Gut says genuine)

[pablito]

Yes, I've been saying to tell you that Mith-M4yhem could've easily been staged. I wouldn't put it past both of those two to do so.

LL, you can't take too much value in what happened yesterday post-claimage because at that point the scum knew how to assess the situation and see what would buy them the best chance of winning.

Please take your wagon-vote-analysis in mind with the possibility of both mith and M4yhem being scum, then see if you still come with the same results as you had before.

[LuckayLuck]

Please take your wagon-vote-analysis in mind with the possibility of both mith and M4yhem being scum, then see if you still come with the same results as you had before.

Will do, sir.

[mith]

Pab keeps gnawing at the corner of my mind as well, so I'm more interested in him than CDB right now.

I was hoping to get quicker responses so that something might be deduced from them, but CD hasn't shown up and the above isn't entirely clear. Mariyta, you seem to be saying pablito is your top suspect. Are you saying CD is the other in your "best guess"? If not, who?

Actually, after just having said all that, I think it's LL + mith.

think that CDB could be a safe choice

You went a different direction in your next post, but even so, this post bothers me. Why would a pro-town player say they think it's LL + mith and then say that CD is a safe choice?

Yes, I've been saying to tell you that Mith-M4yhem could've easily been staged. I wouldn't put it past both of those two to do so.

1. This is to LL, mostly: I am capable of "acting", as you put it. So are most Mafia players. This is what I've been arguing since you came in the game (well, trying to argue; it's been mostly one-sided, as you have consistently ignored me). I don't dispute that pj seemed pro-town when he was in the game. I don't dispute that pablito has seemed pro-town since he joined in (until some of the comments he's made today). And I definitely don't dispute that I seemed pro-town yesterday, because I really am pro-town.

But you

have

to stop looking at things as definites, if you're innocent. If that means looking more closely at me, great! I can only hope you'll come to the correct conclusion, that I really am innocent. That you continue to make huge assumptions about things, in an endgame... well, that's one of the reasons you're in my likely-scum group. I think it's a strong possibility that you were trying to stay on pj or pablito's good side - or both, if I was correct about it being you and CD - and then decided I wasn't going to be quite so easy to lynch as you thought.

2. While the point pablito is making is correct (nothing is definite), this smells of what I like to call RWIFOM (R = reverse). The original usage of WIFOM is where someone accuses scum of doing something scummy, and scum says "Well, why would I do [whatever scummy thing] if I were scum? That would just draw suspicion, and if I'm scum, obviously I don't want that." (Of course, we now use it to signify pretty much any argument about someone's motivations, and innocents make WIFOM defenses all the time. That's a discussion for another time, though.)

Here, pablito is essentially saying that something that makes me look innocent (to LL, at least)

could

just be me faking it as scum. And that's true; but just as with WIFOM, the possibility of an alternative

does not negate the evidence

.

LL, you can't take too much value in what happened yesterday post-claimage because at that point the scum knew how to assess the situation and see what would buy them the best chance of winning.

And along the same lines, I think the wording here goes well beyond "take it with a grain of salt". pablito is here almost suggesting we

ignore

what happened yesterday. Which is stupid.

I'm almost out of time. I would like to see a lot more from Mariyta - she has posted very little since she came into the game, and while I think she's likely innocent, I would be very annoyed with myself if it turned out she was scum and we let her just coast to a win by not saying much. Also, if she is innocent, her thoughts on all this would be valuable.

[pablito]

Just a quickie, haven't entirely read mith's post since I'm still in class.

think that CDB could be a safe choice

You went a different direction in your next post, but even so, this post bothers me. Why would a pro-town player say they think it's LL + mith and then say that CD is a safe choice?

I intentionally used the word "could" for a reason. I'm acknowledging the possibility but choosing to emphasize cases on the other two.

And along the same lines, I think the wording here goes well beyond "take it with a grain of salt". pablito is here almost suggesting we

ignore

what happened yesterday. Which is stupid.

"Ignore" is a far extreme from what I suggest - which is devaluing the importance that was placed. It seems that LL almost entirely bases his entire argument on the events of yesterday when there is still so much to see. I want LL to look at the entire picture instead of focusing himself on the bandwagon analysis that he's pigeon-holed himself into. For anyone to suggest "ignoring" yesterday's post-claimage discussion would be poor play anti-town or pro-town. But if you want to consider "devaluing" as being "almost ignoring" then that's what you choose. I just hope my last explanation clears up what was my actual intent.

[Mariyta]

I'm not really interested in CDB one way or the other right now. I've just had a feeling about Pab since the beginning. I don't know why, I just have.

[pablito]

Boo, Mariyta. So so wrong. I feel confident doing this now,

vote: mith