Micro 205: Everybody's Being Watched Round 2 (Game Over)

[Egg]

/confirm

[Egg]

vote Dart

That vote is forced. Even on a joke vote. Joke votes should just come to you. But you overthink when you open up a fresh scum role. You are worried any vote will look bad. So you just look at the post before yours and vote that person and poke a joke at a name just because that's what they did.

So xeg isn't your buddy and the hydra probably isn't either. Who is?

[Egg]

So you don't believe in associative tells?

[Egg]

I actually think the RVS is pretty telling because it's when your Role PM is fresh in your mind.

And screw mala's opinion. She's probably scum again anyway lol.

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Mala, you should know that's how I start my games. I really think you're just jumping on whatever. All I need to decide is if it's because you're scum or town who wants a reaction. But I know that you know I start my games like that.

Also when was I scum on this account before?

Opportunism at it's finest from the hydra though.

unvote, vote hydra

[Egg]

Lol.

I like starting that way though. Helps me develop my reads.

The thing is... malla knows this. So is she doing it because she's scum or she wants reactions? But she's not scum with the hydra though because if the hydra is scum, they are jumping on a townie's vote. So if mala is scum, the hydra is town. That's the interesting part. I'm just trying to see if it's possible for that hydra vote to be from a town mindset. Could just be RVS wagoning... maybe I'm overthinking lol

Mala, gotcha. But could that difference be experience or is it alignment stuff?

[Egg]

Dart, nah. I've even hydra'd a few times myself. And nothing is concrete. I'm pretty sure certain people aren't scum together, but that doesn't mean certain people are town or scum. Hell, mala and the hydra could both still be town. It's Page 2. A lot can happen. But I'm pretty sure they aren't scum together.

TheGar, who is scum? All you've done is try to figure out the hydra. If they were going to tell us, it would be in their sig.

[Egg]

Hydra, what specifically about mala's play seems like her town play? Just trying to see where you are coming from.

TheGar, just trying to figure out why that's clearly the most important thing to you.

Hydra, I haven't used an associative tell for a vote. Won't even think about doing that until there are flips. Also, you could make the same arguement about reads in general trying to confuse town.

Also just realized mala didn't see my early game because I replaced into the game I was thinking of so I need to rethink that a bit.

[Egg]

Xeg, his first two posts were about who was in the hydra.

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Nah, I just wanted to know why it was a bigger deal to TheGar than anything else in the thread.

[Egg]

TheGar, if you think my posts are noise, you clearly aren't reading them. Also, for the number of posts I have, posting a few about one slight suspicion isn't nearly as bad as you having two posts (when I pointed it out) and both being "so who is the hydra". It makes you seem disinterested in finding scum.

[Egg]

TheGar, one random vote is a pretty standard way to start a game. The posts you mention are pretty clearly me trying to determine the alignment of mala, hydra, and you. Not sure how that's noise or inconsequential.

[Egg]

I don't see an issue with xeg forgetting his random vote.

Confirming late isn't a tell. I can't remember having a lengthy conversation with a scumbuddy before a Day 1 start. At least not one about strategizing.

Bel, I know I didn't get an answer from the first person I asked... what about mala is matching her town play?

TheGar, inactivity happens too. If these people post and I'm not satisfied with the content of their posts, believe me when I say I'll go after it. However, the game is only a few days old and it's possible/likely that they are just busy. the stuff about mala wasn't useless until I realized I had replaced into the other game. It was me trying to sort out her alignment. Thinking. Scumhunting. Same with the "associative tells" as you call it although I'm stashing them away for later. People get uncomfortable when you are close to not only catching them, but naming their buddies as well. So that's part of why I give my thoughts on possible links. You get reactions that way. Again, scumhunting. That's not fluff. Fluff is coming in and posting "hey guys. I'm really drunk right now. This bar is cool". It has nothing to do with the game at all. I don't see at all how you can stretch what I've been saying to sound like that. I think you got nervous when I asked you a question about the player I was voting and now you are grasping at whatever you can. Does that mean the scum team is you/hydra? Not necessarily. But it's something I'm going to very seriously consider if one of you flips scum.

[Egg]

I was told the same thing about trying to look town countless times in this game where I was town:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=27641
^some other highlights of this game that may be relevant here include: stating intent to vote during confirmations, having a solid town read in the first couple of pages (although it was on scum and I should have reconsidered), and not random voting.

On xeg, I can see all of that. He really hasn't given scum reads or even questioned people who he seems to see as potential scum or anything like that at all. But he says he simply hasn't developed many reads yet and that could be true.

[Egg]

Dart, are you no longer concerned with xeg forgetting his vote now that he's replacing out? Did you think he was scum when you voted? If so, why did you change your mind? If not, why did you vote in the first place?

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I approve of pressure on Telo. If we don't see improvement, I'll add a vote. Hey, do people still FoS? I haven't seen it in forever it seems like.

FoS Telo

I still like my vote on the hydra. Wavering a bit on people like TheGar and Dart. Actually, with both of them, it seems like I don't like a lot of what they are saying but it's more because it seems wrong than that it seems scum motivated so that makes them hard to read.

[Egg]

Telo, you have it all wrong. If a vote on you is a pressure vote (was anyone's?), they don't want you to defend yourself. They want you to contribute. ISO some people. Reread. Something to get you into this game.

Fudu, I rarely RVS vote. And I played with mala in this same setup but I replaced into that game so I was wrong and she didn't know my early play from that game. I just forgot I replaced in and didn't play from the beginning. I didn't vote Telo because I don't think Telo is necessarily scum at this point. Although that last vote doesn't look great. But at least it's something.

[Egg]

Bel, it's not so much that Telo doesn't have reads. It's that she seems content with that. If I don't have reads in a game, I'm doing whatever I can to try to change that. What specifically looks good about fudu? It's not just that it's a lot of words, is it?

Mala, why is Bae's FoS the one you don't like the most? This is only your second mention of him all game and all of the sudden you are all over his pressure on Telo, which several of us did, and now you don't like that he has Fudu as scum for the slot's earlier play. How is Fudu catching up going to change what happened before he was in the game? It seems like you are pressuring Bae for the sake of pressuring him. Like it doesn't look like an honest read.

Dart, can you show me where you see scum banter between bae and TheGar? Also, what made you go from wanting to vote both at the beginning of your post to scum being Bae and question marks with TheGar in parenthesis. you seem less sure at the end of that post. What caused that?

Hydra, why fudu?

(<-Answered) And why is dart "very town"?

Dart, how confident are you in your town reads?

Mala, is there a reason for wanting to know who of the hydra has played with Fudu?

[Egg]

unvote

. Hydra's read on Dart is a genuine one.

Bel, fair. Everyone plays differently. I've never played with Telo.

[Egg]

vote mala

. Mostly for the bae read looking fake. I mean, she didn't directly call him scum but she's making points against him. And it comes right out of nowhere when he starts receiving pressure. And her interaction with the hydra was a little off.

I hope I don't just have a bias because she was scum last time.

[Egg]

Dart, it's not about the confidence. That post showed that they are looking for the right thing. Intentions and motivations. That kind of scumhunting is hard to fake.

[Egg]

Dart, you asked why I unvoted the hydra. My last post was my response.

Bae wagon sucks by the way.

[Egg]

Is Telo playing the game?

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Because I don't see a case on Bae aside from not contributing. Fudu's entire catchup was about how Bel and I are scum and he votes Bae at the very end for not contributing. Telo votes Bae for FoSing Telo. (By the way Telo, I don't see where you said Dart was a part of that team before...) Bel just seems to vote because it's the cool thing to do. Says he promised himself he'd vote someone and ends up being the third vote on the wagon. Then there's Mala's little comment about Bae's FoS and even though she didn't vote him, that's more pressure towards him that just seems off.

So basically the wagon is shit because there is no real case behind it and i'd be shocked if scum weren't using the hate to push a mislynch on him.

[Egg]

Fudu, but that drastic change was right at the very end of your read. Like it came out of nowhere. And without much reasoning, or at least reasoning that you gave us. It just looks like a vote for lack of contribution. At the time of the vote, Telo was just as bad. So I don't understand why you voted Bae.

[Egg]

You also didn't sound too confident when you first voted:

I promised myself yesterday I'd throw out a vote today even if I didn't have anything I really liked to go on.

VOTE: Baezu

I don't like the reads dissonance, Dahno, and you shouldn't either.

With regards to everything else, the pressure on Telo looks town-motivated, but she's got a point -- it's early D1, not having megastrong scum reads is

not

a scumtell.
FuDuzn's catchup walls look good, I won't be voting him anytime soon.

[Egg]

And if you were scum who was lazily wagon hopping, you'd have seen L-1 and been excited because someone else can be blamed for the L-1 and hammer votes.

I find it funny how I called out the wagon itself and you are all over it like I was calling you scum specifically over it.

[Egg]

I said four votes and another player's comment were bad. Surely you don't believe that I thin all five of those players are scum.

I don't mean you are hopping all over the place. I mean you may have hopped on this specific wagon because it was picking up steam.

[Egg]

I wish I didn't just read that interaction. So little of it is game related.

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I don't like either of the top two wagons...

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Bel, can you elaborate on why the hydra looks town?

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Fuck. Just lost my post. Gonna do the short version cuz I don't wanna type that all up again.

Bel, one or two of your hydra town points was actually good. The rest, I can't decide if you genuinely believe or not. For example, head guessing frustration. That's not because they are town. That's because they don't want their hydra heads guessed.

Bae, the mala scum read is mostly because she's flown under the radar even before she went V/LA. Her questions don't ruffle feathers and she doesn't follow up on them at all.

I'll be around to help avoid a no lynch but I don't think we are lynching actual scum today. Unless someone is up for a mala or bel wagon. I'd even support a Telo lynch over the main wagons. Hell, even TheGar's slot if we had a replacement here to claim for him.

[Egg]

Will catch up tomorrow

unvote

until then

[Egg]

Joh, I think random voting is pointless and I like to get games going as quick as possible. Also, self meta is perfectly valid when it applies to a specific situation.

Vote Telo

for deadline lynch

[Egg]

Just so everyone knows, I'll be checking in every once in a while until I go to bed to make sure we don't no lynch.

[Egg]

Mala, why is Telo town?

Telo, I usually will vote just about anyone who isn't confirmed town to avoid no lynch especially if they will probably suck up another lynch at some point anyway. Why give scum a free kill AND end up lynching the person we save that day later anyway? I accept that my reads aren't usually 100% perfect even though they are usually damn good so I can swallow my pride and vote a town read who other people have as scum if it is better for the town in the long run. So yeah, if fudu, hydra, or whoever is L-1 at deadline, I'll switch.

Bae and myself are the only people I absolutely refuse to vote at deadline.

[Egg]

I've never played with Telo as far as I can remember, so meta tells me nothing.

[Egg]

Also I'm usually sleeping two hours ago so I won't be here much longer.

Preview edit: ok, so you

might

have a good reason for that read if you are town. But that doesn't convince me at all because I have to take your word for it.

[Egg]

Mala, why the fuck would I try to start a new wagon an hour before deadline?

[Egg]

It was nearing the end of the day, a decision was rushed but was it right?

Vote Count 1.12 (Final)

[5] Telo: Johhog, Belisarius, Egg, Shiny Hydreigon, Baezu,
[2] Shiny Hydreigon: Telo,
[1] Baezu: FuDuzn,
[1] FuDuzn: Dart8000,

Not voting: Malakittens,
with 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch

Deadline: (expired on 2013-08-06 23:26:13)

^there's always scum on a Day 1 mislynch. Usually not the hammer or first vote unless there's more than one. So one of hydra/bel is statistically likely to be scum from my PoV and I'll spend the day deciding which of the two i'd like to lynch. I understand if people look at me by the same logic and I'm not saying Telo didn't seem scummy. It's just that less than 1% of the Day 1 mislynches I've ever seen have had no scum on the wagon so...

Also I targetted hydra in attempt to not target the same person scum kill if they kill. No point making everyone decide between me and actual scum when we can just catch actual scum.

I also think it's more likely that scum no killed than a successful doc protect. Bae, look at this setup and you'll understand why. This isn't like most games.

[Egg]

Bae, it's pretty self explanatory. If I'm VT, that's who I targetted. I think we should hypoclaim our targets last night. Watcher can make something up. Doc can be truthful without saying they are doc. If the watcher spots anyone lying, we have a lynch. Dart already claimed his so I followed suit.

Mala, they could but it's more likely that there is scum towards the middle of the wagon. It goes back to the old days where people would literally vote people for being x number on a wagon off of things like Jeep's list of tells. The idea is that scum will bandwagon. That means the first vote is out unless they wagoned their buddy's vote. The hammer is out because the idea that they got to L-1 without a scum vote is pretty iffy. Although that also leaves the possibility that the hammerer is scum with their buddy already on the wagon. I'm not saying that Joh and Bae are town. I'm saying that it's statistically likely that there is scum in the other three votes. I have the advantage of knowing it's not me which leaves a 50% tossup between hydra and Bel.

I don't the the hydra's dismissal of Bae's question. It was a question, not an accusation and he answers it with "don't give us that bullshit when you've been townreading us". It gets answered later (and kinda was Day 1 really. Like multiple times) but I don't like that that's the first reaction. Bae's response isn't much better though. What specifically changed your opinion? If you even have the hydra as scum now.

Hydra, they absolutely apply. I've seen a lot of deadline lynches and the two games I've found on the site so far that have all town Day 1 mislynch wagons are an RVS lynch and one that just kinda worked out that way for some reason. Not deadline lynches. Why are you trying to dismiss it? Something to hide?

Fudu, while you may be voting actual scum, I disagree with your point. If hydra is town who thinks you are scum, damn right they'll jump any wagon on you.

[Egg]

Hydra, fudu is the ONLY lynch you are ok with? What about fudu's buddy if you're so sure he is scum? You don't have a second suspect or what?

I'd say if your reasoning is accurate, a deadline lynch would be MORE likely to contain scum. And the statistic is so ridiculous that it's stupid to ignore. Like out of the roughly 200 or so games I'm using, two games don't follow it. I could get links. Hell, I could randomly go through any set of 100 games and probably show you more than 95%.

Dart, we did it last game and I was just assuming you meant to start it. Although last game we had a death Night 1 so... I dunno. I'll say something else once this is done.

[Egg]

Bae, in post 347 you are actually helping scum. If they haven't claimed who they visited yet and read your post, you may have convinced them not to lie and cost us a caught scum.

Joh, why do you think a watcher who doesn't lose his ability if blocked is so likely to hold back N1? I can't see it.

I see the three heads tunneling point. Three people tunneling on one person like that seems unlikely to be genuine. I completely agree.

Still got more to read. Sorry, 15 min break from work is over.

[Egg]

Hydra, why should I "know better" about claiming? We did it in the last game and I saw dart already claim his.

[Egg]

Ehhhh. If he's scum he either would have kept it there OR didn't want to look bad so he deleted it OR he was making it up for town cred. I don't get the impression that any of those is true.

[Egg]

I don't see how that comment takes dart from everyone having him as town to scum.

Also don't see Baescum.

Hydra or bel (or both) is scum.

[Egg]

dart, I'm looking at the Day 1 mislynch. I said at the beginning of the day I was looking at hydra and bel based on that. Also gut and a general opportunistic yet under the radar vibe I get from bel. Also, you're better off not speculating on Bae's role. A chance for someone to counter will come if needed. No sense outting specifics.

Hydra, I didn't sit down and analyze and think about it. I was posting on the fly and remembering we claimed last game and seeing dart already claimed. That being said, there are still benefits to it. But it might have been ruined by all of the discussion about it.

Joh, why does the chance a VT targets the same as the NK matter when there was no NK? Do you know something we don't about whether scum tried to kill? And the mod discussed balance at the end of the last game, but I don't remember exactly what he said.

Hydra, why can't scum be genuinely confused about odds of targetting the same person?

[Egg]

Joh, you seem to be assuming no NK over successful doc. You don't seem to realize you are making this assumtion.

Hydra, I see your line of thinking. It doesn't match mine but I see it.

Vote Bel

The more I think about it, the more confident I am that bel is more likely scum than hydra.

[Egg]

If two people targetted the same person and one later flips doc, there's a decent chance that you've caught scum performing a kill (although admittedly not guaranteed). So if the doc was successful, we do have info. It may not be as solid as we'd like, but it's still there. Like if we are deciding between a couple of people and one happened to visit the same person as the doc on night 1, maybe we go that way. Obviously, it would have to be looked at and analyzed, but it's another piece of the puzzle.

[Egg]

Mala, what did Belscum seem like before?

I still don't see Fuduscum by the way

[Egg]

Dart, I just don't see scum in fudu's posts. I haven't seen a strong case. There just is nothing in this thread that suggests to me he is scum. Maybe I'm the one who is blind here, but I don't see it. As far as the hydra, I don't even know. I still lean scum mostly because I don't see how three heads can all tunnel on one person like they have today with Fudu. If it came to a point where a Bel lynch wasn't happening, the hydra would be my next choice. It's tough because they've looked town at times, but they've looked scummy a lot too. It's like if scum posts and town posts were weights on a scale, they'd be looking at 200 pounds on the scum side and 150 on the town side where everyone else is more like an average of 100 total pounds. Not sure if that comparison helps but that's kinda what my mind is doing on the hydra read.

Mala, bel may not be "lurky" but he's managed to stay under the radar pretty well until recently.

Hydra's Bae vote looks reeeeeaaaaaalllllllllyyyyy bad.

[Egg]

Hydra's Bae vote looks reeeeeeaaaaaaaaallllllllllllyyyyyy bad

Vote: Fuduzn

Lol.

unvote, vote hydra

[Egg]

Bel, that's not the issue. I said the vote looked bad and they changed it right away. If heads disagreeing is there, it's an excuse to do something blatant, but make it ok because "OMG that's a bad vote. It wasn't me, it was another head".

Dart, I don't see how any of my posts can be seen as opportunistic or how I've been under the radar. And I don't see why having a town read on fudu is an issue.

[Egg]

Bel, don't dismiss things as WIFOM. The game of mafia is built around WIFOM.

Joh, if the point is that you are rolefishing, the fact that you are pushing a claimed power role to L-1 just to get a fullclaim isn't a defense. Voting Bae is ridiculously dumb right now.

Hydra, how is my vote on you opportunistic? Isn't it only like the second vote?

Joh's reaction to Bae's self vote is complete shit.

Lynching me probably won't hurt too bad. I'm having a hard time figuring out who is scum. I have dart, Bae, and Fudu as town but after that I'm kinda lost between hydra, bel, Joh, and mala for scum. I actually trust you guys to figure it out without me. Just don't be dumb by lynching Bae.

[Egg]

Clearly, either the Hydra vs Fudu thing was faked or Bae is fakeclaiming[/sarcasm]

[Egg]

I mean Bae

could

be fakeclaiming but that'll come out later if that's the case.

[Egg]

if Bae is the alternative, I'll

unvote, vote egg

.

Rather lynch a VT than a power role. Bae should never ever ever ever be lynched without a counterclaim.

[Egg]

Hydra is probably scum. If they aren't, Bel is. If hydra IS scum, the buddy can bee found in Bel/Joh/mala. Bel with Joh/mala works too. Basically, it's in those four and Hydra/Bel contains at least one and I think it's hydra. If Bae is counterclaimed at some point, disregard all of this.

[Egg]

Mala, why not just hammer?

[Egg]

Bae already claimed a power role. Why the hell would you lynch an uncountered claimed power role in an open setup? A wagon popped up after the claim and Joh is still advocating that lynch? Why? Common sense. Use it. And Joh isn't the only one. Even if it's not votes, the comments are there on just about every page. It's ridiculous. With that kind of mentality, this game is a lost cause. I'd ask for replacement but that's never been my style because that's just not fair to the Mod.

[Egg]

Can we just get a hammer?

[Egg]

theres a difference between the two beli.
baezu is quite obviously an emotional player and self-voting cos of frustration would make sense for her as town.
egg on the other hand is not this kind of player and there's absolutely no reason for him to self-vote other than try and get towncred exactly because he saw baezu getting towncred from it.
and not to mention, egg's reason for self-voting is ridiculous. baezu is the not the counterwagon to him - only johhog stated he still intents to lynch her.

egg is scum, and it was forced.

R~

Lol at this by the way. Go read Days 2 and 3 of Open 493 Jungle Republic and see if you feel the same way.