Mini 408 - EXiLE Mafia, MOD ABANDONED

[Jack]

Eh, I wouldn't assume scum will never nominate each other. They probably won't but it's a dangerous assumption.

Worth a page 1

Vote:Raging Rabbit

[Jack]

Eh, I wouldn't assume scum will never nominate each other. They probably won't but it's a dangerous assumption.

What reason could they possibly have to nominate each other? Nominations are secret, and it's not like nominees are ever gonna be confirmed innocents or something.

Well, the day 1 nominations aren't based off of any suspicions. So the mafia could indeed ensure that none of the nominated were mafia. If we assume they did this then that would confirm 4 innocents. But it's entirely possible that they nominated one of their own--and you seemed to be pushing the idea that these were confirmed innocent, which makes me suspect that this is the case.

[Jack]

meh you sound pretty town

unvote

[Jack]

I nominated cheesfan for being first and Jdodge for starting with a J.

[Jack]

Why would Maz care? <.<
I nommed Cheese and Maz. Mostly because I'm scared of them.

Because I was the

worst cop ever

in a newbie game with him.

Tsk, tsk. I didn't nominate only you, RR.

I just prefer not to say my other nomination as it is not relevant.

umm?

[Jack]

Irrelevant as in that person didn't get nominated. Sorry for not being clear about that.

I feel that the only people who need to share their nominations are those who either nominated someone who's up for lynch, or got NK'd.

I was originally being sarcastic, but this is really quite weird.

I personally don't see any real use in sharing your nomination of

anyone

, since I don't think we can learn anything from it atm. However, I'm also sure sharing your nominations can't hurt the town in any way, so I'm willing to play along just for the heck of it. I really don't see what makes you think it's only useful to share your "popular" nominees, what sets them apart from the other ones?

I think you shouldn't be hiding information from the town, since even though it's a really neglectible it still makes you look a tiny bit scummy.[/i]

It is weird. And I have a theory. Skruffs mentioned the possibility that the scum all nominated the same people. Let's say they did. If we all post who we nominated, scum have to lie or be exposed. But if they lie, the numbers may not line up correctly, and they might be found out. By only listing one of his nominations he avoids that somewhat.

Vote:JDodge

[Jack]

Listing the nominations probably won't help us today. But it will prevent the mafia from voting en mass. If there is a discrepancy today we can't show anything, but if there is one tomorrow we can ask everyone why they nominated who they did, which means the mafia have to lie even more and may be forced to take an unconvincing pose.

I'll

Unvote

because jdodge posted it right away and with Romanus outright refusing it looks like more of a stretch.

Vote:Ghyrt

I think his skruffs vote is quite weak. Probably just day 1, but I'd like to hear more from him. The other three seem innocent to me so far.

[Jack]

Forgot to add, if we don't think any of the 4 are particularly suspicious, we should just pick one to lynch, not vote for him yet, and discuss who to nominate. That way the other 8 people don't get ignored.

This is the basis of my (quite temporary) vote. It seems like you're saying "hey guys, don't fall for it or we'll get caught ;_;".

I don't understand this vote. What is skruffs supposed to be warning his scumbuddies not to fall for? Why would he suggest sharing nominations if he thought they would reveal something?

[Jack]

unvote

Mod confused me.

[Jack]

I see. But I give the town a bit more credit than that, it's not like we're going to jump on the first person to post a nomination that belies the results.

[Jack]

Game-breaking strategy (maybe): If we ever need to completely bypass the nomination process, we can decide everyone's nominations the day before so that everyone is on the block. I think that this can work for any number of people; everyone would get exactly two votes. Don't know if its useful, but it makes scum nominate who we want them to and gives us a way to turn this into a normal game.

Don't think so, the scum can nominate whoever and then claim they nominated the chosen two.

[Jack]

Thanks for misrepresenting me again. I already told my nominations. Any other "oversights"?

Is this the only response you have to that big post? For that matter, if you think naming our nominations will lead to mislynch why did you name yours?

[Jack]

I should tell you it makes me uneasy when people :goodpost: me :p

[Jack]

Even without knowing fircoal's nominations we can learn something.

cheesefan 4
jdodge 4
Raging Rabbit 2
maz medias 2
skruffs 2
fircoal 2
tcs 1
jack 1


But we need romanus and yellowbounder...

@Romanus: I don't see why a mason group would all nominate together night 1.

[Jack]

Blantantly misrepresenting somebody just because they've changed their minds on a topic is by no means permissable.

he

forgot

. Jaysus.

[Jack]

You have to nominate two different people...

[Jack]

Well, it follows his earlier comments about not wanting to reveal nominations because of special roles. Though that doesn't seem that special, which makes me think he could be scum pretending to have a pro-town role.

I'm a bit suspicious of yellowbounder for being last to post nominations. Easy to correct any inequalities.

[Jack]

FoS:Ghyrt

none of your fos's have made sense to me yet.

[Jack]

About numbers...it's addition and subtraction here. You don't need to be a genius to see that 2 <4.

[Jack]

I've seen it done by both town and scum. I haven't played with skruffs before so I can't really say.

I don't think I've seen anyone offer themselves without a few votes on them though. Could be scumtactic, I'm certainly leaning to a cheesefan lynch for today (skruffs isn't risking much), but I don't think we should make too much out of it.

[Jack]

If we completely ignore the nominations I have a feeling we'll end up with our lynch candidates being chosen by the mafia most of the time.

[Jack]

I think there are more important things we could talk about. Cheesefan for example.

[Jack]

I think there are more important things we could talk about. Cheesefan for example.

What about him? I'm in other games with him, he's acting more or less the same thus far.

Maybe, but I'd like to hear more from him. He hasn't said much.

[Jack]

Romanus should take more care to seem innocent I think. A casual response is sometimes mafia not wanting to appear concerned with their life.

But his power makes more sense as a pro town power than a mafia power, seems like it's supposed to counterbalance the mafia's coordination abilities.

[Jack]

Now it looks like harry potter morphing into a plant.

[Jack]

I don't see how it could be useful.

[Jack]

I believe he means where we're trying to figure out his alignment by figuring out whether or not his role would be more balanced as town or scum.

Oh. That's not outguessing anyone, then, it'd be much stronger in hands of mafia. Period. Quite a misrepresentation, too.

*is confused*

2nd guessing the mod means assuming the mod would have done something a particular way e.g. "there's a doc in this game so there must be a cop". Making assumptions about Romanus's role is 2nd guessing the mod, we have no way of knowing if the mod would have given it to a pro town player or to a scum player. You can't say for sure what the mod would do.

[Jack]

Vote: Raging Rabbit

Your wild flailing attacks are stinking up the place.

You want to know the extant of my powers, why, so you know whether or not it is worth trying to kill me tonight?

He could also be wondering whether to nominate you tonight, remember. Although I will say he doesn't look as pro-town as he did earlier.

[Jack]

Those last two quotes were addressed to Romanus.

I don't see the "role is more powerful in hands of mafia-->therefore more likely to be mafia role" connection

at all

. Giving weak roles to the town is common. Giving the mafia extra powers is I believe less so.

[Jack]

Why would Romanus claim the power as scum though? I guess it's possible he was covering up some inconsistency. It's a bold move though, anyone played with romanus as scum before?

[Jack]

I think Romanus is exaggerating his importance, but his power does help us. As long as he makes good nomination choices. He can help make sure that the people we think are most suspicious get nominated.

[Jack]

Instances of RR OMGUSing today: 2.

Confirm Vote: RagingRabbit

, if it wasn't obvious already.

Depite this really stupid post, I still regret not being able to lynch Romanus more.

Instances of unsubstantiated post dismissal: X+1, where X is a number I've lost track of

You did the same yourself earlier.

[Jack]

skruffs not ghyrt right?

[Jack]

Our infallible mod is obviously trying to imply something...

err, what?

[Jack]

Infomation is always good, because any information you gain in a mafia game (unless the mod is screwing with you), you take into account any scum that may be influencing the information, or trying to stop it, probably in this case. Good enough for me, for a Vote: JDodge.

It could be that I'm trying to keep people from basing their entire case on nominations.

Well, is it? Have you said this before?

[Jack]

About the suggestion of information leading to mislynch. The way I see it is, everyone starts the game regarding the others as neutral. With discussion, sometimes scum convince you of their innocence and townies of their guilt. So, you could rightly say that discussion can lead to mislynch. But I think we all agree discussion benefits the town. It's the same way with nomination information. The town wins by making good use of information, more information is better.

[Jack]

Cheesefan

: Seems to take the game very lightly. Joke vote at this stage in the game? Don't see anything particularly scummy, but he's a possible lynch today for lack of contribution.

Skruffs

: I don't like martyrdom but he says he'll explain later. Seems pro town. I will look carefully at his numbers analysis though, he could have suggested the "let's list our nominations" thing because he thought he could confuse us. I don't see how he got Dean from the nominations list.

JDodge

: I didn't like his early "only post one of my nominations" thing. Since then all he's done is pursue RR and talk about misinformation misleading the town. Not liking his play at all. Far too focussed on RR who I'm beginning to think is one of those "lynchable townies" if he is townie of course. He said he wanted to get back on track but he hasn't.

Raging Rabbit

: Don't know. I agree with him on the information is useful side of things, but for one who has argued so strenuously in favor of "information that helps the town" he hasn't done much to provide any. His posting style is distracting as others have said. The biggest point in his favor is the way several others seem to have latched on to him.

Of the four, I prefer a JDodge lynch, with Cheesefan coming 2nd.

Now for the others:

Maz Medias

: I can't tell from his posts if he's genuine or not. But his single minded pursuit of RR is scummy. I mean, maybe RR is scum, but I don't see how MM has reached his level of conviction. He seemed convinced by around his 3rd post in the thread.

Romanus:

Has claimed power role (nom same person twice). Maybe pro town, but has said he used it to narrow down towns choices (!?) and has threatened to use it in revenge. Also votes RR without reason. The biggest thing against him I think is his rather obvious hints about having a power role prior to claiming. They look more to me like scum trying to convince the town, I think if he was really concerned about being nightkilled (this is about the only reason he's given for his vote on RR) he would have been less obvious about it. He could have argued against it without mentioning the power role thing.

Romanus and Maz are my current choices for nomination next round.

Ghyrt

: Don't like his posting. Want to hear more from him. He's much different from the last game I was in him with but I'm keeping in mind that he was I/C there. Also, I was wrong about him that game as I recall...(sorry ghyrt!).

YellowBounder

: One post (!). His vote is a little quick, but the two people he mentions suspicions of aren't bad. I do worry about people who lurk all game, respond to a prod, and then drop one post and disappear again.

TCS

: I was about to say he hasn't posted yet, but it appears he has. I think I'm just going to say he hasn't posted yet though.

DeanWinchester

: Not enough posts for me to make a judgement call, but I like his nomination list he posted. Would like to know what skruffs has against him.

[Jack]

@Skruffs: You assume that everyone was truthful. In the same post, you assume the mafia didn't nominate eachother, targeted a specific person, made the same nominations. This is problematic.

Now, even if we take the nominations as truthful:

You take not getting nominated as a scumtell. Let's take dean. 11 people, no nominations. Quite striking. Now let's assume 2 of them are his scum partners. 9 people, no nominations. Quite striking.

You also assume the choices were random. Cheesefan probably got a certain number of nominations for being first on the list.

You don't take into account statistical variation. If you look at the list, positions 1,5,7,9 were nominated. Now what are the odds that all would be odd numbers, and 3 of the 4 would be prime? Does it matter?

Cheesefan and yourself got 4 votes, why is Jdodge special for 5?



This kind of analysis is not going to help us at all. It would be easy for scum to say they nominated fircoal. They could say they nominated whoever they liked, it if doesn't add up in the end we have no way of knowing who lied about it. Your assuming maz is innocent and dean and I are scum off of this?

[Jack]

This kind of analysis is not going to help us at all. It would be easy for scum to say they nominated fircoal. They could say they nominated whoever they liked, it if doesn't add up in the end we have no way of knowing who lied about it. Your assuming maz is innocent and dean and I are scum off of this?

This is what I've been saying all along...

But it doesn't hurt us, it maybe tells us something interesting about skruffs.

[Jack]

You're right, I haven't tried to add information. I see posting the nominations as more of a discouraging move.

It's possible that there are some useful patterns, but I won't say what I'm watching for just yet, will wait until there is more data.

You assumption of fircoals nomination is one thing I don't like--there is really only a 20% chance that he nominated you.

I can't say from the chart if anyone is lying. But Maz could have easily have nominated dean and switched it to fircoal. The mafia can take their vote off of someone they know didn't get nominated without risk. If one of the four nominated today is scum, I can see the other two mafia pretending to have nominated him to clear themselves if he gets lynched. Unlike later rounds, you don't have to have reason for nominating someone, this is the easiest round to lie in. The optimal mafia strategy would be to nominate the same two people, then lie about who they nominated to clear themselves. You say it's all worked out correctly, but you're assuming yellowbounders final nomination is correct and that fircoal nominated you as well.

I don't mind analysis as as supplement, but I'd really like to hear your thoughts on the players based on the discussion so far. Analysis of this round is not useful given how easy it would be to lie. You seem to be taking this for more than it's worth; assuming people are innocent.

[Jack]

Jack: After everyone else posted their nominations, jodge had 5, rr and chz has 4, and i have 3. Fircoal nominated two people, as well. We found his finger in the ballot box, so OBVIOUSLY he did put in his nominations (tho why his finger was in there is beyound me). I am nominated with everyone else; so it stands to reason that he more likely than not nominated me.

This is circular reasoning though. You're using your nomination as evidence of how he voted. There's no way to prove how he voted, and going by the math he only had a 20% chance of nominating you.

Maz could have easily done that; maz nominated AND voted for me as the day started, i could probably try to find a way to suggest that maz lied and is trying to cover, but that is PURELY speculation.

Again, you are saying I'm assuming all kind of stuff, namely that the information is correct and that people aren't lying. I am saying that based on what people are saying, this is what I have concluded. You can't 'wifom' evidence away just because it's possible someone lied. Romanus 'came clean' about who he nominated, and you are suspicious of him for that.

It's a dangerous conclusion. My impression of maz is that he's scummy, so I'm thinking he lied. If your impression of him is that he isn't scummy you should provide your reasoning there. We can come back to the chart later.

I'm not really trying to throw suspicion on them, though, that's my opinion. IF you want I will post a longer person-by-person review tonight.

Cool.

[Jack]

Can't we get 4 people nominated tomorrow?

ab ab ad

bc bc bd

ac ac cd

dd <--romanus

They all have 5. Then if "a" doesn't get nominated we'll know one of those people is scum.

[Jack]

How exactly does scum pick? We can assign who nom's who beforehand.

[Jack]

Right. I say we just each nominate who we find most scummy, and rely on our townie instincts to get scum nominated. Much harder for the scum to manipulate things if they don't know who is going to be nominated. Then tomorrow we can ask the noms question again, and this time everyone will have to explain their nominations. I don't know if we'll be able to agree on someone collectively.

[Jack]

Damned if we do, damned if we don't.

We should be worrying more about finding the scum now than about nominations. Would the rest of you mind putting up lists like the one I posted?

[Jack]

Couldn't it also be said that the lists could be manipulated by mafia into getting the wrong people nominated?

You could also say that the act of posting can manipulate things in the mafias favor.

[Jack]

I'm not liking Skruffs play lately. Or maybe I'm misinterpreting that last comment.

[Jack]

The point behind the scum lists is that the scum have to make them too. In other games I've been in where they were used they have been quite useful in finding scum.

The thing we want to avoid is scum nominating whoever they want tonight and making up a reason for it tomorrow. If we force them to describe their suspicions tonight we force them to nominate from that list or at least not contradict it. Unless the mafia all post their list with the same top 2 they can't very well all nominate the same 2.

It also forces scum to talk about their scumbuddies which can trip up newbie scum sometimes.

[Jack]

They can't just up and say nominated someone that was at the bottom of their list. Therefore they would have to lie. Forcing scum to lie is good.

[Jack]

hmm I think we're making this more complicated than it is. We can just talk like normal and find a couple of people who are scummy, if there are enough townies who think so those people will get nominated.

[Jack]

I'm not trying to discourage sharing of information, but you can't have your cake and eat it too. You can't say we can't look at one thing because scum is lying, and then say we can do another thing because we would be able to catch scum lying. How will we catch scum lying tomorrow that we can't do today? That's what I am asking.

You're right. We should stop talking about the nominations and get back to standard mafia.

[Jack]

I agree with romanus.

[Jack]

ebwop: about the nominations

[Jack]

I can agree with cheesefan on this one; you cannot call me town and Cheesefan scum when we're advocating the same position.

Well, he can. He has other reasons. Not that I agree with them.

I don't have a clear preference between any of the four.

[Jack]

ebwop: I guess cheesefan seems a bit more innocent than the others.

[Jack]

How is it different from your "gut feelings" about cheesefan and Jdodge? What made you confirm your vote?

[Jack]

Actually dean, it says "I find cheesefan a bit more innocent than the others". You only think it makes me scummy because you think cheesefan is scum.

@Skruffs: does that mean you've abandoned your self sacrifice plan?

[Jack]

I'm voting myself, aren't I? Form your own conclusions.

Your "assuming I live the night" bit said otherwise.

[Jack]

I'm voting myself, aren't I? Form your own conclusions.

Your "assuming I live the night" bit said otherwise.

Misread the "to" as "the". Don't get what the evil laugh was for. Humm.

What are your suspicions based on the thread, ignoring the graph?

[Jack]

I don't like how quiet yellowbounder and TCS are.

[Jack]

I think TCS got replaced in another game I'm in by his own request. It's possible he forgot about this one.
yellowbouner, well, he's jsut scum.
Who do I think is scum? The people I"m nominating. (see above)

Ok. Why them?

[Jack]

GOOD POINT about cheese and jack, will have to look at that. Jack voted for cheezfan, tho - or at least says he did. Does that matter?

lol! Of course,

now

is the time to ignore the graphs evidence. You seem to use the graph to meet your own needs.

I'm also against a deadline, I need to reread before I know who I want to vote for and nominate.

[Jack]

That

really

doesn't look like sarcasm to me.

[Jack]

Worst case: 7 townies, Three scum. Scum have 6 votes, townies have

14

. If the scum vote in a block, two players get 3 votes. If there are about 4 players the town finds suspicious, those guys will probably also get three votes. If two of them get 4, ok then that's actually good. If 4 get three then we have six people up, excellent.

Skruffs, it's not like we're going to say tonight "hmm I think this person is suspicious, so I'll nominate him

even though no one else suspects him and he probably won't be up

." We'll take into consideration who we think will be popular choices.

[Jack]

I'm going to go all fascist and say we should nominate people who are refusing to cooperate with everyone else. Not only does it put a bigger target on all fo the cooperators backs

Yeah, this is a bad idea. This was pointed out already I believe. I'm really not sure what you're playing at skruffs, you seem to be avoiding the traditional mafia play entirely. I admit there's a temptation to discuss the system but it's useless without standard play behind it.

Lately I'm finding skruffs the most scummy of the four. I have to reread though (should have before but oh well, will before deadline anyway).

[Jack]

Look Skruffs. All we need to get someone nominated is 3 nominations. The town will have 14-16 total. Now, even if we nominate randomly it's probable that the town will get one or two people nominated. Since we won't be nominated randomly I'd say it's almost certain. Try some random number tests and see for yourself. I said this several pages ago so I don't know why you keep saying nobody has offered arguments against you plan. Or maybe I do.

You are spending far too much time on this, I think you're using it on a smokescreen. I'm also not convinced you were being sarcastic back a couple of pages ago.

Vote:Skruffs

fake edit:

Here, I ran some number tests for you. Assuming worst case, here are some results:

6 1 7 4 4 6 4
2 6 3 10 7 2 4

4 and 6 get chosen by town.

10 5 10 6 6 6 6
2 9 8 6 9 10 1

6 and 10 get chosen by town.

2 7 2 2 3 2 9
4 5 10 8 9 4 3

2 gets chosen by town.

3 10 3 2 4 2 9
2 1 4 6 3 9 9

2, 3 and 9 get chosen by town

you see?

[Jack]

Jesus christ it's simple math. We don't need to outnumber scum we just need to equal them. Voting in a block, they can put no more than 3 nominations on a single player.

Random

nomination by the town will result in as many town chosen nominations as your system. If we can figure out who the town nominated tomorrow, then we can figure who the scum nominated, which gives us more information. This is very good for the town. I think you are worried about this, and so are pushing your plan which can teach us nothing.

I really don't like dean and romanus's push for deadline.

[Jack]

I don't see the case on cheese. Lurking + not caring isn't suspicious. Especially since it's not specific to this game.

[Jack]

If he comes up town JDodge, than I know you are scum.

SCUMTELL

[Jack]

Fuck.

What?

[Jack]

4 is a nice number.

Vote:Maz Medias

[Jack]

maz and romanus


DW it's 5 to lynch, what's the problem with voting?

[Jack]

I want to ask - for the record - why I'm such "suspected scum". If it's because of my nomination position, why isn't JDodge just as suspicious? I haven't really seen any case against me besides "he scum 'cause he not fascist".

Because I don't find RR suspicious, I think he's one of those annoying townies that scum like to try and lynch. You latched on to him very quick and didn't let go. It's wicked easy to do that day one and then use "I've always thought he was suspicious" as your reason for voting him when you haven't actually come up with a convincing case.

[Jack]

She voted him after 20 pages or so and after he'd disappeared; you voted him page 2 I wouldn't say it's the same at all.

[Jack]

I'm here.

[Jack]

Dean, who would you rather lynch, Maz or Ghyrt?

[Jack]

Right, but if you had to choose one.

[Jack]

Why maz medias over ghyrt?

[Jack]

I don't see how that makes you more suspicious of maz than ghyrt/RotN. Unless you think people who get replaced are more likely town?

[Jack]

Any thoughts from Romanus?

Dean is acting weird about ghyrt/maz. I think one is his scumbuddy but I can't decide whether he would be willing to bus or not. You have any past games as scum Dean?

[Jack]

Mod:

Could we have prods on Maz and Romanus please?

[Jack]

Do you think Dean is scum?

[Jack]

I say we lynch Maz today and Dean tomorrow. I don't buy there suspicion of each other.

[Jack]

Any word on replacements? Maybe skruffs or tcs could replace back in?

[Jack]

Helllooooooooooooooooooooo

[Jack]

Mod lasted posted like 2 weeks ago.

[Jack]

Traveling cross country, will be inactive until th OH WAIT what am I thinking, don't really need to post this...

[Jack]

btw guys, Skruffs was

totally

right about the nomination system.

Good game while it lasted.