Space Monkey Mafia: GAME OVER!

[dahen]

It seems like there is a need for some clarification.

Klebian and PJ:

I am suspcious about Glork, but so was I last time when he was town. The lack of kills and the return to Thok at the point it did fits well with a roleblocker. Glork was fast with his claim this day, which speaks in his favor too.

I state here three things.
1. It can happen that I am suspicious of Glork even though he is town.
2. The lack of kills and return to Thok suggest a role-blocker and is pro-Glork.
3. Glork was fast with his claim, which I think speaks in his favor too (too refers to as in addition to no 2).

Please don't do the mistake of thinking that I'm stupid. I would never think that #1 could be rewritten as "If I am suspicious of Glork, that means that Glork is pro-town." I know way too much logic to do such a thing.

I like PJ's idea of lynching the common person within the pairings, but his suggestion is to lynch VitaminR. Since I don't think a Glork+Klebian thing here is very likely I'd want Klebian to try to convince me why Fritz isn't viable.

And another thing, Klebian - how sure are you that Glork is scum, and why?

[petroleumjelly]

Dahen, please read this slowly.

3.) Glork being fast with his claim means nothing. If he is scum, he has had seven game days over which to think of a claim, and in a possible LyLo situation, scum are going to claim as fast as possible to get the town to mislynch on what they think fits the situation best in order to achieve that.

Glork could not claim Cop, Vigilante, Tracker [too many results to fake and be consistent with his past statements], Doctor, and many other roles... really, as scum, his only fake power claim option was that of Role-Blocker. And he couldn't have claimed to have role-blocked any of Dahen/Fritzler/Nightson [VitaminR] because then there would have been absolutely no excuse for him to have not claimed this type of information on an uninvestigated person. That only leaves Klebian and myself to claim a role-blocking on, and since Klebian is by far the easier lynch of the two, Glork's play today is optimal for scum. Anybody who knows anything about rankings in military (or what have you) or with access to them would be able to think of going from Ensign => Lieutenant => Captain/Commander/Admiral, etc etc. Really, there is nothing in Glork's claim whatsoever which makes it "more likely" he is town, especially since he doesn't even have full Gorilla Traitor flavor.

Glork is an experienced players. Experienced players

will

have claims ready to use at the drop of a hat,

especially

if they've had an entire night during which to fashion their claim.

A quick claim is not a pro-town indicator this late in the game, with this type of player, in a possible LyLo situation.

[petroleumjelly]

Also, Dahen, please read over Klebian's posts carefully. Then tell me whether or not you think Klebian truly "missed" the thing in the Gorilla Role PM which you have alluded to. You are the one who brought this subject up in the first place, so don't go thinking you can just ignore it now.

[petroleumjelly]

Dahen, what do you think about VitaminR/Nightson? Details, s'il vous plait.

[Mr Stoofer]

Vote Count

klebian: 3 (Glork VitaminR dahen)
Glork: 1 (klebian )
VitaminR: 1 (petroleumjelly)

Not voting: Fritzler

With 6 on the bridge, it will take 4 to push someone out of the airlock.

[dahen]

PJ:

I have read your posts carefully, don't worry. I've read why you think claiming early is not a pro-town tell. I also see that RB is a likely scum claim. However, RB is a very likely claim for an RB so you really can't turn that against Glork.

I have read Klebians post carefully, just as I try to read each post carefully. I am not satisfied with his hinting. I don't want to tell you more about this. It's more important for me to get the answers than it is that you understand everything I do at this point. I'll tell you exactly what I think when I've gotten the answers that I want. I want him to be more explicit and I don't want your questions to give him more hints than he needs.

Now, Klebian, please answer me so I can make PJ happy. I expect that you are competent enough not to get yourself modkilled in the process.

PJ, I have a todo list for this game already. If you want me to build a detailed case for or against VitR you have to wait. You can always read what I've posted in the past.

[VitaminR]

I think PJ has a point about lynching the common denominator. Only the scum possibilities he cites all rely on me being scum.

That's not very fair, PJ!

[petroleumjelly]

Well, I can't really see any encryption in Vitamin's post that represents the difference between glork's claim and my PM. He claims that he has the ability to convince other primates to stand down and take no action, while I am told that I was trying to slaughter the crew. Weapons may be another difference, but that doesn't seem significant enough.

Did you read this in particular, Dahen? I thought what Klebian mentioned here was precisely what you were alluding to, and I already think Klebian was pushing the line in saying

this

much.

If you [this is a collective you to both Dahen and VitaminR] think there is something more important that Klebian missed, say so.

VitaminR, you said you bread-crumbed the missing link? Let's hear it. And then let's hear why it is different from what Klebian claimed.

@ VitaminR: It's always "fair" when lynching scum.

[petroleumjelly]

What pairings do all of you find to be most likely at this point? It can be more than two, but only include them if you think they are likely. We can work from there.

Hey, way to avoid the question posed here, VitaminR. I fully expect an answer.

You can, however, talk about your crumb

after

Dahen confirms/denies whether or not the missing flavor is in what I quoted of Klebian.

[dahen]

PJ. I hope you realize that you are about to completely destroy my plans regarding Klebian and VitaminR. I have explicitly asked VitaminR to be quiet about this and let Klebian do rest of the talking. I have reasons. Can I do my theories my way, please? I will not answer these questions of yours until this is sorted out.

Klebian - if you feel you need me to answer PJ's question in order to respond to me, then say so and I will consider it.

[dahen]

VitaminR: I still wish the opposite of PJ -- that you don't discuss this until Klebian has spoken. Please don't let PJ destroy this because he wants to know everything in the wrong order.

[Glork]

I think PJ has a point about lynching the common denominator. Only the scum possibilities he cites all rely on me being scum.

Well of course it's the most logical thing for each player to do. The problem is, each player will have a different "common denominator," if they have one at all. You obviously don't suspect yourself, so you can't possibly be a "common denominator" in your possible scum-pairings... same with Fritz, Klebian, Dahen, and myself.

I still have no idea what's going on with regards to this flavor thing, so... you guys do your thing. From my past experience with Dahen, he's a pretty deliberate, methodical person when it comes to churning through endgame. On the other hand, of course, PJ's a renowned scumhunter and knows how to handle endgame situations, too.

[petroleumjelly]

I'm posting from the school library because a thought just hit me.

If Klebian is scum, the only possible partner for Klebian from VitaminR's perspective is Fritzler. I cannot be scum with Klebian (giving two scum investigation immunity in a game like this is bastard moddery, plain and simple). Glork cannot be scum with Klebian (this is possible, but VitaminR has already expressed the opinion that he thinks Glork is town). I would laugh if VitaminR tried to call Dahen scum after going along with the "flavor" hinting this whole time... and that only leaves Fritzler.

Glork, I might be confusing games, but haven't you continaully said that you think Fritzler is Gorilla Town in this game? If you think this is so, you really

have

to believe that VitaminR is scum along with Klebian.

Seeing as my two biggest guesses for scum are {Klebian + VitaminR} and {Glork + VitaminR}, I'm not understanding why you are not voting for VitaminR at this point.

In fact, I will make this easier.

I will refuse to vote for Klebian today. Even if he is scum, I would rather lynch the partner (if there is a partner). Since I am town, if Klebian is going to be lynched, it is NECESSARY that the scum-partner of Klebian also votes for Klebian. In other words, scum can force the town into not lynching Klebian if they so choose.

Enter: Level Two.

My way accounts for both of my scum-groups. If either of them is true, the town's win percentage jumps to 100% by this plan. If either Glork or Klebian are scum, lynching wrong today means the town loses (and we have a 50% chance). But lynching VitaminR brings the town to 5 players, and Glork then must role-block Klebian. If there's a kill, Klebian is cleared... if there's no kill, then there will be five alive and the town will still have two lynches at it's disposal, so that both Glork and Klebian can be lynched.

Easy peasy. Chop chop. You guys are gonna have to compromise.

[Glork]

You're definitely mixing up games, PJ. On either D4 or D5 (I forget which... could have been both), I was on Fritz for not paying attention and suggesting that we lynch AndrewS. Remember how you agreed to a certain extent, noting that Fritz has feigned ignorance as scum in the past?

You state that your way accounts for both of your likely scumgroups; my way accounts for both of my likely scumgroups. I see absolutely no compelling reason to move my vote away from Klebian at this point. I would much rather lynch scum and figure things out using my role than to potentially mislynch and reduce our chances of not losing to a mere coinflip based on whether I block Fritz or Klebian.

I'm actually starting to swing the other way to think that it's Fritz/Kleb instead of VitR/Kleb. Fritz pretty much hopped merrily along when I first claimed. "Crap, my scumbuddy is busted. Bus and move on, I guess." He very clearly voiced that unless concrete, compelling evidence arises to refute my roleblocking claim, he plans on voting for Klebian (Post 966). But lo and behold, when Kleb winds up with three votes and PJ is unwilling to hammer, Fritz suddenly wants to stop because he can't figure out who Kleb's scumbuddy might be (Post 1023). He further stalls by asking me who I would block if Klebian is lynched as scum -- which, now that I think about it, is completely irrelevant unless Dahen is Kleb's scumbuddy, in which case we'd probably just lose anyway (I die, mislynch Fritzler, PJ dies, VitR gets endagmed). I can't see any reason that Fritz would want/need to know who I plan on blocking beforehand unless he is looking for a way to no-kill (to frame VitR) and then try to go after me for gambiting.

Fritz, could you explain why you wanted to know my answer to "If Kleb is scum, who will you block?" I stated it earlier, and I said that I'd make it clear before we went into night so that the town could get info from a nightkill (or lack thereof).

[Glork]

Mod:

Could we have a prod on Fritz? He hasn't posted here in nearly a full week, but he's definitely active elsewhere on the site. Thanks.

[petroleumjelly]

Frankly, I don't think who you think to be the scum-groups matters. I'm the confirmed innocent; you're not. I already pretty much know what all of you have to say from your respective positions, so it's not like I'm surprised by your answer.

I can see it either way.

If Klebian is scum:

1.) Fritz is wavering on Klebian because he doesn't want to hammer his partner if there's a possibility of lynching somebody else. Note, however, that Fritzler has never said he would vote Glork.
2.) VitaminR tried to give himself room to vote for Glork for pretty much all of today, until it was clear that nobody else in the town would. Only then did he bother to vote Klebian {i.e. even if he was scum with Klebian, he would think this to be the best move}.

If Klebian is town:

Then Glork is really necessarily scum (I doubt the scumgroup would be VitaminR + Dahen, but even if that is the case, VitaminR would still clearly be the correct lynch today).

And if Glork is scum, then Fritzler is not his partner, which pretty much leaves Dahen (which is more than possible, but the whole "let's compare role PM's" skit makes me doubt that), or VitaminR (making him the correct lynch again).

In review:
1.) Klebian Town, Scum = {Glork, VitaminR}
2.) Klebian Town, Scum = {Dahen, VitaminR}
3.) Klebian Scum, Partner = {VitaminR}
4.) Klebian Scum, Partner = {Fritzler}

3/4 scenarios tell me VitaminR is scum. And even if VitaminR is town,

if

Glork is town, then he has a fair chance of role-blocking the remaining scum from having a successful nightkill.

[VitaminR]

What pairings do all of you find to be most likely at this point? It can be more than two, but only include them if you think they are likely. We can work from there.

Hey, way to avoid the question posed here, VitaminR. I fully expect an answer.

I already sort of mentioned it earlier, but klebian + Fritzler. If Glork is scum, then it would have to be Glork + dahen. Another reason why I believe Glork. I don't think dahen is scum.

Of course, Glork + klebian is also a possibility. A pretty interesting one, really. I don't think it's that likely, though.

Your last post also leaves out the possibility of klebian + dahen.

3/4 scenarios tell me VitaminR is scum. And even if VitaminR is town, if Glork is town, then he has a fair chance of role-blocking the remaining scum from having a successful nightkill.

That would make this 3/5 and give klebian the same percentage (or give him a higher percentage if you include Glork + klebian). Either way, it's okay for your votes to rely on your assumptions, but don't present them as logical arguments when they aren't.

Your last argument applies for anyone here.

[petroleumjelly]

Except I don't think it is Klebian + Dahen. So there is no point in me including it in the scenarios I think are reasonably feasible.

[Fritzler]

wait, who does glork think the pairs are and who does pj think the pairs of scum are, just so they're in one place

[Glork]

Off-hand, I would say Klebian/VitR or Klebian/Fritzler.

In review:
1.) Klebian Town, Scum = {Glork, VitaminR}
2.) Klebian Town, Scum = {Dahen, VitaminR}
3.) Klebian Scum, Partner = {VitaminR}
4.) Klebian Scum, Partner = {Fritzler}

That good enough for you?

I suppose I could possibly see other scum pairings involving Dahen, but I find them pretty unlikely right now.

[Fritzler]

the play is probably vitaminR

damn it i hate to agree wtih PJ's post

[Glork]

Fritz, could you answer my question at the end of Post 1063?

[klebian]

I state here three things.
1. It can happen that I am suspicious of Glork even though he is town.
2. The lack of kills and return to Thok suggest a role-blocker and is pro-Glork.
3. Glork was fast with his claim, which I think speaks in his favor too (too refers to as in addition to no 2).

I like PJ's idea of lynching the common person within the pairings, but his suggestion is to lynch VitaminR. Since I don't think a Glork+Klebian thing here is very likely I'd want Klebian to try to convince me why Fritz isn't viable.

And another thing, Klebian - how sure are you that Glork is scum, and why?

OK: First, to your 3 points: The only one that I may agree with is number 2. However, I'm not exactly sure I know what you mean when you say 'return to Thok'

I can basically combine the 2nd and 3rd points. I believe your crumb, so I believe you to be town. I am quite sure PJ is town. This leaves VitR, Fritz, and Glork. Thus, There are three pairings: Glork/Vit, Glork/Fritz, Fritz/Vit. Essentially, you are asking me how sure I am that the pairing is not Fritz/Vit, and why Glork/Vit is more viable than anything else.
How sure am I that Glork is scum, and thus the pairing is not Fritz/Vit? Well, for glork and I to both be innocent, masterchief must have had a role that can prevent a kill. Also, each of glork's blocks must have 'missed'. Night 6 he blocked Fritz, and Night 7 he blocked VitR. If glork is innocent, then the pairing is Fritz/Vit. This means that the night glork blocked vit, fritz made the kill, and vice versa. This itself is only a 1/4 chance: that the scum are alternating kills the reverse pattern as glork was alternating his block. Also, glork has been taking this day in the sense that masterchief's role is not a viable factor in the lack of a n4 kill. I have got the feeling that glork is making the situation as if it's either me or him. Thus, I am fairly sure glork is scum, but if he's not, then we've just had bad luck.

Why is fritz not viable? Well, I've never said that he isn't, but I do think that glork being scum basically makes vitamin scum. I have got the feeling from his posts that he is posting from a point of view that he believes glork, which, if they are scumbuddies, can be distanced (I hope I'm using the correct word here) by just saying that he believes glork. However,

if

we lynch fritz then:
1) He is scum. His partner is VitaminR. Glork blocks either me or vitamin. If there is no kill, then, as said, we have 5 people and can make 2 lynches with a maximum of 1 scum left. Otherwise, someone is cleared.
2) He is scum. His partner is glork. Glork pretends to block someone. Depending on how he feels, he will either kill, or not kill, someone. If he doesn't kill, he will say he blocked me. You will lynch me, I will turn up town, and then lynch glork the next day. If he kills someone, then I will be cleared (because I feel that if we are lynching fritz, glork will be blocking me if he comes up scum). I feel that glork will be on the chopping block if this happens, so I don't think this scenario (of fritz being scum, and there being a nightkill tonight) is feasible.
3) He is town. Scum are glork and vitamin. We lose.

So from my point of view, lynching fritz is bad because if he is town, we lose. However, lynching vitaminR gives the same result. That is why I am not able to vote anyone other than glork.


Regarding the PMs. I really don't see any more differences that have not been pointed out. All that I haven't mentioned, (but I don't think you're looking for this) is that glork mentioned he had no weapons but I personally have weapons, I'm just out of ammo. I don't think we should be going more in depth with this, and I agree that using role PMs, at any rate, is a very lazy way to make decisions.

Now, I'd also like fritz to respond to that question. And VitR, why are you not considering a scumgroup of fritz + glork?

[petroleumjelly]

If Fritz + Glork were scum, Fritzler already would have hammered you and the game would be over.

[klebian]

Oh, crap, you're right. I'm going to have to rethink this, but I've already spent too much time today. I'll see if I can post later today; otherwise it will be tomorrow.