Space Monkey Mafia: GAME OVER!

[VitaminR]

I have read today's posts, and Glork's claim seems credible to me.

I'd like some time to read the thread before making any real decisions, though.

[VitaminR]

Right, I have read all 35 pages.

My thoughts:

Glork has not been particularly helpful this game. He pushed the MC wagon fairly hard and he seemed pretty clueless at times. I came to the last page almost convinced he was scum, even with his claim in mind. On top of that, the klebian GF thing seems unlikely. We don't seem to have that many power roles to balance that out and it is not really in keeping with the scum/town reversal.

There is, however, one very important point in his favour:
I can't think of anything else that would explain the lack of a kill during the fourth night. It fits and his blocks check out.

Then there is Masterchief. I don't trust him to have left any sign of having prevented the kill. I also don't trust him to have prevented a kill in the first place, though. Ensign doesn't seem particularly docish (it reads like a deputy role to the Lieutenant role), but we can't really be sure.

I think a klebian vote makes a great deal of sense at the moment, but there are enough doubts for me that I would like to hear some more discussion first.

[VitaminR]

1.) How many Space Monkeys do you think are left?

1 or 2. 2 is most likely, I think.

2.) Do you think the Space Monkeys have any abilities?

Given the lack of town power roles, no, I don't think so. I find the possibility of a GF difficult. It's a possibility, but it seems a difficult balance call to make.

3.) Given the answers to above, do you think a Lynch or a No-Lynch is strategically better with 6 players alive?

I'm honestly not sure. I suppose Glork might be killed, which would give us more certainty tomorrow. On the other hand, then we might have lost a roleblocker and the last lynch would become a tough one. Other than that, I'm not sure I see what could happen that would help. I don't think see how it could hurt, though.

I would like confirmation from either VitaminR [Nightson], Fritzler, or Klebian to see if any of them can verify being role-blocked.

I have not had any indication that I have been role-blocked, but I do not have a special ability.

[VitaminR]

Hmm, dahen, that's a good point. I actually think Ensign fits roleblocker. I don't see why Masterchief didn't just claim that then, though. Even if he thought he was a scum roleblocker, claiming no abilities doesn't make any sense.

[VitaminR]

Questions for everyone:

In your opinion, what possible feasible explanations can explain for the lack of an N4 kill? Which of these do you find the most likely at this point?

Using dahen's options:
1d and 1f seem pretty unlikely to me. The auto-block mechanism is something I've never seen before. 1b and 1c don't seem that realistic.

I think a one-shot night-kill immunity is an intriguing option, but one that is unlikely given the set-up.

The only option aside from the roleblock that I would seriously entertain is something involving MC's role. I think roleblock is the most feasible explanation at this point, though. The roles in this game have been fairly straightforward and that option fits it best.

What possible roles do you think MC might have had? Which of these do you find to be the most likely at this point?

Roleblocker, back-up cop and doc. Roleblocker and doc are unlikely, I think, although I find it difficult to draw any definite conclusions from MC's behaviour. As I've said before, back-up cop makes the most sense to me.

[VitaminR]

I would very much like to see Glork explain that quote.

[VitaminR]

Glork, that doesn't explain why your opinion of klebian changed for the better after Night 4.

Though you're right in that I didn't mention it explicitly, in my last post of D3 (Post 515), I once again accused Klebian of being scum even after understanding the alignment situation.

That makes it even worse. How did you get from that, plus the roleblock, to the Day 4 posts PJ quoted?

[VitaminR]

I'm starting to agree with PJ more and more, but I'm still bothered by the lack of a kill Night 4.

PJ, what do you think happened?

[VitaminR]

To answer VitaminR: I looked over the thread early the next day, and I was less confident about Klebian as I had been earlier. Kleb didn't really fit the "lurky" description that I expected SMs to be employing. I also decided that, although his defense of CES was consistent with scum, it also made sense as somebody who thought he would protect a pro-town player to look good in the town's eyes -- something that Klebian himself mentioned he was intending to do at the time. Basically, I felt that Kleb's actions were consistent as either scum or as town, and the rest of his play didn't ping enough to make me follow my possible role-based information at the time.

An expectation of "lurky" behaviour doesn't seem all too solid ground to build your suspicions on. I don't know, I know that I would tend towards seeing everything a player does in a rather negative light if I had any role-related information that possibly implicated them. It would certainly become a strong factor if I did not have a read on them either way. Certainly concerning someone I have not played with that often (although I have no idea of how often you've played with klebian).

1.) You previously stated that you blocked Klebian because he didn't hammer CES.

That quote describes his stance after blocking klebian, it changed from before Night 4.

[VitaminR]

PJ, I can't say I entirely follow why you think I'm scum. There are a couple of reasons in your posts, but the warrants don't make any sense.

Chances are, the town just barely missed out in lynching Nightson the Space Monkey - we already know that 4/5 of the voters were town, and it's more than possible that all 5 of them were.

This assumes that a player is scum if they are voted for by pro-town players. That is a fairly untenable position.

I've been thinking this for quite a while - it seems no matter how little Nightson contributes and no matter how many votes he garners, he is never pushed over the edge into lynchville.

Which makes him scum how? Nightson hasn't contributed in his other games on the site either. As to not being lynched, what? There were a couple of players in this game who swung back and forth between safety and the noose. Also, why does that make him scum?

[VitaminR]

VitaminR, please show me the players who swung from "safety and the noose" since the revealing of the game's twist: that Gorillas were town.

I'll try to have a look at this once I have more time. It was mostly based on my general impression after re-reading.

It actually

is

a tenable position. We have both played in quite a few games, and the majority of bandwagons on town have

at least

one scum on them; and if not on the final lynch, scum will have voted them at one point in time before hopping off the wagon. Nightson has been continually voted for by townspeople. Every confirmed Gorilla we have had since Day Four [AndrewS, StD, Thok, PJ] voted for Nightson, and yet the lynch couldn't finish. Twito never voted for Nightson... CES never voted for Nightson... Glork has only voted for Nightson when he was in little danger of being lynched...

In my experience, scum wagons also frequently have scum on them (especially if the scum players are in any way competent). One wagon of five voters a couple of days ago hardly constitutes evidence. Also, your assumption that I'm scum means that there were 0-1 scum on that StD wagon, which makes the difference fairly minimal.

There's also the further metagame (which I wasn't going to bring up, but oh well) that you know CES in real life, and CES was a Space Monkey: he probably asked you in particular to replace Nightson so you could finish off the game for the Space Monkeys. You are obviously going to deny this either way, though.

We keep MafiaScum and real life strictly separated.

PJ, you seem fairly frustrated with this game. I hope I have not contributed to that.

You were starting to convince me on Glork, but I'm finding it difficult to follow your logic now. I'm not really that sure

why

you are suspicious of Nightson and the points you're throwing out there don't really connect up that well.

[VitaminR]

The two of you (including VitaminR the replacement) have distinctly veered away from voting each other.

I haven't veered towards voting anyone. This is a possible lynch-or-lose situation and I'm not going to take my vote lightly (I'm not someone who is likely to do that in the first place).

[VitaminR]

But I just spent a post explaining that there are numerous reasons for a lack of a kill. Are you really so naive to think that Stoof didn't come up with some other role? And really, Mastercheif's role itself is a solid enough reason for a lack of a kill. Cmon.

This is what I'm struggling with too. If MC was a doc, would he have claimed it? He would have definitely done that if he was a roleblocker. The problem that I also have with a doc role is that SpeedyKQ's death seems to imply the ship doesn't have a doctor any more. That doesn't really leave many plausible roles for Masterchief.

PJ, you still haven't really given any concrete reasons why Nightson/me is scum. You let the debate lie last time that I addressed your points and now you've gone back to assuming I'm scum.

[VitaminR]

I'm sorry I've been a bit absent. I haven't had much time.

You're oversimplifying the issue, PJ. I'm not particularly convinced by Glork, but I don't see a plausible alternative for night 4.

I agree that putting off the decision isn't all that helpful and I'll try not to keep you waiting for too long.

Vitamin; if MC was not a vig, then SpeedyKQ was a red herring. I think we're good to assume Speedy was a red herring.

I didn't say SpeedyKQ was not a red herring. I said that, flavour-wise, his presence makes a lack of doc plausible.

I don't really know if MC would've claimed if he was a roleblocker. He was, after all, GorillaScum (in his mind). I think that he would've gone the same way he did regardless of his role (which I consider a roleblocker still a possibility).

I would always expect a scum roleblocker to claim roleblocker.

And "That doesn't really leave many plausible roles for Masterchief. " If you're going to assume this, then please read my arguments that I have posted regarding this. I have directly said that there are plenty of roles that he could have -- what does plausible mean in this game's context?

I thought they were all implausible. This game might have had a big twist, but the roles have all been rather standard.

Vitamin: Your post seems to be from the point of view that you believe glork. Noted.

Yours seem to be from the point of view that you don't. Noted.

But seriously, I'm not sure if I believe Glork, I haven't indicated otherwise, and I don't know why you've put me in his corner. I have to admit I don't like your recent posts much, though. You seem fairly unwilling to acknowledge that there are facts that make it difficult to make this decision (that the lack of a nightkill is significant, for instance).

[VitaminR]

Vitamin, do you think that if MC was a scum doc, he wouldn't have claimed doctor?

I think that if he had such an obvious power role, we would have seen something in his claim.

So... dahen I see what you mean, even though I missed the first time round. After Glork responds & reveals what he knows, checking his credibility, I could spell it out. Or do it now?

I don't want to ruin your set-up.

[VitaminR]

Depending on your creativity, it would be nice if you could post what you mean in an encrypted form that can be decrypted with a key you give after Glork's answer. I don't know if such stuff is allowed or if you understand how to do it well, but it would be nice. Otherwise, just wait a little for Glorkie.

Already taken care of.

[VitaminR]

Vote: klebian

I don't think I am going to end up voting anyone else. I've thought about it and there is too much that speaks in favour of Glork for me to ignore. The lack of a nightkill Night 4 is an important one, but also the fact that I find it unlikely that, if he's scum, his claimed blocks would still fit the roles of three players.

I also don't think the flavour thing speaks that strongly against Glork. A power role PM would be worded differently and I also get the feeling that there are some differences between the standard role PMs.

I'm not sure if it matters, but should I spell out what I had encoded?

[VitaminR]

Klebian, I'm not totally impressed by your input to the flavor discussion. Could you please spell it out what you think I am looking for.

I would like to hear this too, although I'm starting to think the flavour discussion may not bring us much. Re-reading, the only real difference with my role PM could probably be gleaned from what has been said.

On the other hand, the fact that both klebian and Fritzler seem to be coming up blank could be very significant.

[VitaminR]

I think PJ has a point about lynching the common denominator. Only the scum possibilities he cites all rely on me being scum.

That's not very fair, PJ!

[VitaminR]

What pairings do all of you find to be most likely at this point? It can be more than two, but only include them if you think they are likely. We can work from there.

Hey, way to avoid the question posed here, VitaminR. I fully expect an answer.

I already sort of mentioned it earlier, but klebian + Fritzler. If Glork is scum, then it would have to be Glork + dahen. Another reason why I believe Glork. I don't think dahen is scum.

Of course, Glork + klebian is also a possibility. A pretty interesting one, really. I don't think it's that likely, though.

Your last post also leaves out the possibility of klebian + dahen.

3/4 scenarios tell me VitaminR is scum. And even if VitaminR is town, if Glork is town, then he has a fair chance of role-blocking the remaining scum from having a successful nightkill.

That would make this 3/5 and give klebian the same percentage (or give him a higher percentage if you include Glork + klebian). Either way, it's okay for your votes to rely on your assumptions, but don't present them as logical arguments when they aren't.

Your last argument applies for anyone here.

[VitaminR]

Except I don't think it is Klebian + Dahen. So there is no point in me including it in the scenarios I think are reasonably feasible.

True, but it also means that you don't have an argument. In fact, you have no argument against me at all other than the fact that you think I'm scum.

[VitaminR]

That doesn't bother me (in fact, I think it's a strategy I might try too), but you are presenting your case as if you have evidence, as if it follows logically that I'm scum.

It's a bit misleading.

[VitaminR]

I know, PJ. I'm just trying to make that clear.

[VitaminR]

Slowing discussion down when I got into the game. We were almost looking at a pretty rushed decision there.

Other than that, I've tried to have an objective look at the evidence and not be daunted by the reputations behind them. I've tried to make the right decision and I think I have, but we can't really tell yet.

I think I've been fair in addressing the accusations of me. I haven't dismissed your points and I've tried to give explanations or alternative points of view where I can.

[VitaminR]

As for Nightson, there are four posts that were made after he realised he wasn't scum.

They are:

I was on vacation/couldn't log on to MS for most of day three. But it doesn't really matter because I could have been just laying low because I didn't want to get any suspicion on me. Doesn't matter.

Sorry for scarce posting, I've been busy and sick. I'll post a big post today.

Yes I am sick (you can see a picture of the weird cyst on my arm that is now red and yellow if you want proof, or the five bottles of pills I'm now taking) and coupled with being busy with school I find my time for mafia to be severely curtailed. I don't want to have to ask for replacement because I know there's precious few replacements to be had since the crashes. But my contributions are going to have to be when I have time and when I'm coherent enough to post.

Tonight I'm feeling decent so I think I can manage to post in at least a few games.

Post coming tomorrow (just to reassure people that I'm here)

Wanted to separate these, they are from four different posts. Can't really tell anything from this.

And yes, your method for finding the real scum was flawed, if you just look for scum tells from people from days 1-3 you aren't going to find the real scum you're just going to find everyone who thought they were scum. In fact if you aren't getting any scum vibes, it just means they're good at hiding their scumminess. If you want to say that you think I was acting like someone who knew what was going on then make that case, but just making cases based off traditional scumtells for the first three days is pointless at best and distracting and scummy at worst.

This is pro-townish, it's not a bad point.

The don't seem that scummy to me so he's probably scum. Seriously, I'm horrible at reading Glork, when I think he's sure to me mafia he's town and when I'm convinced of his townieness he turns up scum. So with that grain of salt, I'd say the one thing that did strike me as kind of scummy was the way he talks about the possibility of you being scum. (Not because you can't be scum but because he seems to want to cast suspicion on you without actually taking a stand on it)

That's not terribly big post but I'm afraid I don't have a great deal more to contribute right now. I think that there's a lot of information that we simply don't have because the first three days were spent with everyone thinking they were scum, then with the MC lynch we didn't learn much because MC was such an easy lynch.

However Thok's investigation results make up for the information lost at least partly.

I'm a little sketchy on the number crunching (head is starting to hurt again) but even with three scum left we would need two straight mislynches to lose. With only five candidates to choose from, it seems unlikely hat we'll hit the only two townies among the five unconfirmed. Hopefully of course, we'll have no mislynches.

Right now I'm actually leaning towards fritz likely being scum. I'll review his posts and then probably make a vote.

Fairly useless as a post. He only makes one observation, on Glork. I suppose that's sort of useful. He doesn't give reasons for his suspicions of Fritzler.

So, to summarise, I think he did very little that was pro-town.

[VitaminR]

Thanks, PJ.

Why are klebian + dahen & Glork + dahen unlikely, btw?

Did I miss something?

[VitaminR]

PJ, I do see the advantage of voting the common denominator, but it's not that clear to me who that would be.

If it's Glork, then it would be Glork - dahen.
If it's klebian, klebian - Fritzler seems most likely. Klebian - dahen would also be an option.

That would make dahen the choice for today. I'd lean towards Fritzler over dahen, though. I don't really find that choice any easier.

At this point, I feel most confident about a klebian vote (so I suppose you would see this as a confirm vote).

[VitaminR]

Last line, PJ.

But okay:

Confirm Vote: klebian

[VitaminR]

Two scums, for what it's worth.

[VitaminR]

You know, I still don't really see the evidence against me here.

Dahen, I look at where you say vitamin said an ensign fits rb. He never really follows this up, because he appears to believe that while rb fits, mc would've claimed this. This seems like a fairly weak attempt at distancing to me.

What? I said, the moment I pointed out that Ensign fits roleblocker, that I would expect Masterchief to have claimed it. I still believe that. It's not a question of never following it up.

And I'm not really surer about who is scum. Both klebian and Glork pretty much just changed their stance to vote me. I find myself seriously entertaining the notion that they both are, heh.

[VitaminR]

klebian and Fritzler are our scum.

Look, there's no way I'm scum with Glork. I stalled the klebian wagon the moment I replaced in and dragged us all into this mess.

If I'm scum, it's with klebian. Glork + Fritz is impossible, Glork + dahen is impossible. That only leaves klebian + Fritz.

Even if you think I'm scum, klebian is the way to go here.

However, dahen took that post where you said that ensign makes sense as a roleblocker, and apparently didn't read the rest of it

Ok, sorry. It's true that I didn't read all posts completely when writing my last post. I thought I included the essentials.

But then, VitR, where do you stand? This post is a mess:

PJ, I do see the advantage of voting the common denominator, but it's not that clear to me who that would be.

If it's Glork, then it would be Glork - dahen.
If it's klebian, klebian - Fritzler seems most likely. Klebian - dahen would also be an option.

That would make dahen the choice for today. I'd lean towards Fritzler over dahen, though. I don't really find that choice any easier.

At this point, I feel most confident about a klebian vote (so I suppose you would see this as a confirm vote).

You say I'm the logical vote, but that you are leaning towards a Fritzler lynch and that you are most confident about a Klebian vote.

You didn't list Glork+Fritzler as a possible pair. Why not?

mod

: I second Glorks suggestion of retracted deadline.

That would supposed to illustrate that I don't value the "common denominator" approach because it means my vote ends up on you, and, aside from PJ, you're the player I see as most likely to be town.

[VitaminR]

Well yeah, that is an option too, I suppose.

Umm... dahen hasn't hammered me?

But at the time, I suppose it was largely gut. The careful way with which he approached the flavour claiming thing definitely had something to do with it, though.

[VitaminR]

The flavour thing was pretty difficult. We got pretty lucky there. "Missed first round" was a complete coincidence. I had actually guessed it was something to do with searching (the first letters of the clauses spell out "search").

Glad to win this one, I think I mostly rode Glork's awesome performance.

PJ, your play was great, I feel pretty guilty taking this one from you. I'm still not sure why you voted klebian in the end.

I was sure I was going to get lynched, I was kicking myself for not nonchalantly voting klebian on entering the game and dragging out the discussion.

[VitaminR]

Oh, and Stoof, I was only briefly a part of this game, but I really enjoyed it.

Great set-up. Thank you.