Ferris Wheel + Machine Gun Survival!! AUTOLOAD WINS THE GAME

Kelly Chen · Post Post #0 (isolation #0) » Mon Mar 26, 2007 6:14 am

Ok here is the grave situation. All players are strapped into seats on a ferris wheel. At the highest point of the wheel, there is a machine gun that can obliterate any other player's seat in the time a player has to fire it before their seat starts to descend.

You all have cell phones though so you can try to persuade people not to shoot you, or make alliances etc.

The person who doesn't get killed wins!

This game is ridiculously simple and barely needs a mod. Just as many people as possible sign up. I will randomly put everybody in a turn order. When it's your turn, you

kill: otherplayer

in the thread. Then it is immediately the turn of the next living player in the turn order.

If you do not kill somebody in 72 hours of it becoming your turn, your grip on the gun causes your arms to be pulled off and you die. Next guy's turn.

I may make exceptions (think V/LA or rule disputes) and that may require me to make controversial decisions. Like, extended deadlines, or saying somebody misses their turn but doesn't die (if an absence is expected to be pretty long).

I will not prod people when it's their turn, that is everybody else's job! Definitely talk outside the thread if you want.

I would like to have 200 players. But I'll start it up if I can get 12ish within a few days. If people trickle in afterwards then they can just go at the end of the turn order.

this is the turn order:

20 STD

killed by CoG888!

7 bethelmark

killed by JDodge!

18 remussaidow

killed by Occult!

17 CoG888

killed by dom:inc!

8 Jingolaw

killed by Wizardcat!

15 klebian

killed by Eletriar!

6 CES

killed by Eletriar!

2 Mr Stoofer

killed by remussaidow!

13 Wizardcat

killed by CES!

21 bigAl

killed by CES!

12 autoload

<- currently up

5 Eletriar
1 Occult
14 Mert

9 Pooky

killed by Occult!

16 MM

killed by Mert!

4 Zindaras

killed by autoload!

10 bird1111

killed by bethelmark!

19 pete d

killed by STD!

11 BHNY

killed by Jingolaw!

3 JDodge

killed by autoload

22 myself

killed by klebian!

23 dom:inc

killed by autoload

24 Shotgun_holiday

killed by Pooky!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #3 (isolation #1) » Mon Mar 26, 2007 6:28 am

nope, please feel free to talk outside the thread.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #5 (isolation #2) » Mon Mar 26, 2007 6:34 am

JDodge wrote:Two questions: Why is the machine gun there?

Actually this is how ferris wheels usually ship. The military is the main purchaser

And if they're trapped there against there will, why aren't they trying to kill the person who put them there as opposed to each other?

Because that person is in the can right now.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #18 (isolation #3) » Mon Mar 26, 2007 8:58 am

Interesting question. But I believe the answer must be

no [i.e. you may not kill no one]

, else you could attempt to force other people to make kills. And that might become an endless cycle of no kills, which would force me to pull a "draw" ending out of nowhere.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #26 (isolation #4) » Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:16 pm

That's 21 players. Good enough to make a ranking so that you guys can start strategizing.

Anyone who signs up after this post will go at the end of the turn order.

random.org says this is the order from first to last:
20 STD
7 bethelmark
18 remussaidow
17 CoG888
8 Jingolaw
15 klebian
6 CES
2 Mr Stoofer
13 Wizardcat
21 bigAl
12 autoload
5 Eletriar
1 Occult
14 Mert
9 Pooky
16 MM
4 Zindaras
10 bird1111
19 pete d
11 BHNY
3 JDodge

You might want to start filling STD's inbox so he doesn't kill you!

The game has not started yet, though. Let's see when signups stop coming in.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #29 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:43 pm

/in's are still accepted, yes. I'll tack you on.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #59 (isolation #6) » Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:24 am

petroleumjelly wrote:I might suggest that you make it so
two
shootings are necessary to kill a player. Otherwise I think people at the end of the list are fairly screwedzorz.

LOL

Kelly Chen · Post Post #66 (isolation #7) » Tue Mar 27, 2007 11:00 am

Ok, signups have trickled down. So they're closed.

I will PM STD and let him know that his 72 hour timer will start (along with the game) when he next posts in this thread!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #74 (isolation #8) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 4:50 am

Sure, I'll add you in.

I wrote a simulation to check out everybody's odds of winning and of getting to kill somebody. The results aren't quite what I expected! Now that we have 24 players though I'll have to rerun them and then tell you who you should bet on.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #76 (isolation #9) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 5:11 am

Ok, recall that this is our turn order:

20 STD
7 bethelmark
18 remussaidow
17 CoG888
8 Jingolaw
15 klebian
6 CES
2 Mr Stoofer
13 Wizardcat
21 bigAl
12 autoload
5 Eletriar
1 Occult
14 Mert
9 Pooky
16 MM
4 Zindaras
10 bird1111
19 pete d
11 BHNY
3 JDodge
22 myself
23 dom:inc
24 Shotgun_holiday

It seems for some reason to be

wrong

that the later players are less likely to win. Save The Dragons is somewhat more likely to win, but after him everyone through Eletriar is

less

likely than average to win, with CES being least likely to win of anyone!

From Occult onwards, the odds go up and then down, but all are above average. pete d is the most likely to win the game. STD's odds of winning are a bit less than Mert's, but noticeably better than Occult before him who is basically exactly average. Shotgun_holiday is more likely to win than Mert, but less likely than Pooky.

When I ran the simulation for 23 players, STD was below average like everyone near him. I'm not sure why 24 players put him up. [EDIT: actually I remember he was just barely below average, and he's not really that great now.]

Now I also measured the number of kills everybody is expected to be able to make relative to the average. Predictably here, earlier players are more likely to get to kill, and also more likely to get to kill a second time. Everyone through autoload should expect a higher number of kill opportunities than average.

So bet on pete d to win, and if you bet on CES already try to get your money back. And certainly don't use your kill on him, what a waste!

Here's the raw results that I don't feel like explaining.
[EDIT: Crap, I seem to have deleted the first column. There are some minuses missing.]
102993
.401605 4705 -.3227161 3959 -.8062441 3461 -1.4325 2816 -1.901464 2333
2.212165 2013 -2.23838 1986 -2.128664 2099 -1.829615 2407 -1.49464 2752
1.083933 3175 -.5217587 3754 5.012476E-02 4343 .5355946 4843 1.048251
5371 1.338562 5670 1.658972 6000 1.976469 6327 2.033755 6386 1.819177
6165 1.789078 6134 1.444394 5779 1.145345 5471 .7307535 5044

2.561524 159380 2.246686 151922 1.955995 145036 1.66522 138148
1.382845 131459 1.138379 125668 .8710753 119336 .6578063 114284
.4370652 109055 .2312682 104180 3.193007E-02 99458 -.1319055 95577
.3099252 91360 -.463207 87729 -.6333326 83699 -.7961549 79842 -.9181556
76952 -1.059575 73602 -1.166083 71079 -1.316241 67522 -1.412575 65240
1.53694 62294 -1.650286 59609 -1.785416 56408

Kelly Chen · Post Post #81 (isolation #10) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 11:52 am

That would kill him even though it's not bolded!

pete d is dead!

It is bethelmark's turn now!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #83 (isolation #11) » Wed Mar 28, 2007 3:14 pm

Sorry, I don't know. I checked this thread pretty regularly and don't remember seeing such a post at all.

I guess you could post in the Help! forum...

Kelly Chen · Post Post #89 (isolation #12) » Thu Mar 29, 2007 6:39 am

Updated projections (now easier to read), accounting for it being bethelmark's turn and pete d being dead:

101863
STD .4463921 4699 bthmk-.1603052 4081 remus-.7552219 3475 CoG-1.374681 2844 Jingo-1.909714 2299 kleb-2.098202 2107
CES-2.172812 2031 Stoof-2.003958 2203 Wcat-1.663304 2550 bigAl-1.197973 3024 auto-.7473682 3483 Eletr -.1760125 4065
Occul .5141301 4768 Mert 1.062906 5327 Pooky 1.648988 5924 MM 1.986696 6268 Zind 2.073087 6356 bird 2.219362 6505
peteD-4.166667 0 BHNY 2.167331 6452 JDodg 2.126099 6410 mysel 1.754031 6031 dinc 1.486024 5758 SHoli .9411743 5203

Smart money has moved to bird. CES is still the guy to bet against. Hard to say whether STD improved his position by killing pete d, relative to anyone other than pete d.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #92 (isolation #13) » Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:19 am

Then

bird1111 is dead

and it's remussaidow's turn!

Hmm, I wonder if I should continue to post projection updates...?

Kelly Chen · Post Post #96 (isolation #14) » Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:47 am

Second column is number of wins out of 102993 trials.

If your value in the second column were 4291.375, your score for the first column should be exactly zero. (That is, total trials divided by 24. Yes, it should be 23 or 22 now, but I didn't implement that adjustment yet.)

Kelly Chen · Post Post #98 (isolation #15) » Thu Mar 29, 2007 10:58 am

Because that's how many ran. I just stop the thing manually instead of programming it to go to exactly 100k. Heheh.

Ok, I'll stop posting projections. I will note though that there was a pretty obvious pattern in both sets of results. But the pattern seems to break down when the number of players gets to be say <10.

In particular, with four players left, player 2 (i.e. the guy to go next) can't win at all. Because the guy who moves with 3 players left is solely the kingmaker. And e.g. with five players left, player 4 can't win unless player 1 kills player 5.

You'll want to think it through.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #105 (isolation #16) » Thu Mar 29, 2007 3:33 pm

Mr Stoofer is dead!

Now it's CoG's turn I believe.

Sorry Cephrir, I am thinking I shouldn't add players after moves have been made.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #107 (isolation #17) » Thu Mar 29, 2007 4:26 pm

Omg! So

STD is killed!

Now it's Jingolaw's turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #112 (isolation #18) » Fri Mar 30, 2007 3:12 am

Wth

BEHAPPYNEWYEAR is DEAD!

Now it's klebian's turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #115 (isolation #19) » Fri Mar 30, 2007 2:59 pm

Ok so klebian is dead! Now it's CES' turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #123 (isolation #20) » Sat Mar 31, 2007 4:19 am

Oops. I'll fix in the OP that klebian killed

myself

.

And CES kills

bigAl

!

Now it's Wizardcat's turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #125 (isolation #21) » Sat Mar 31, 2007 10:24 am

Alright so Jingolaw is dead and autoload is up!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #127 (isolation #22) » Sat Mar 31, 2007 1:53 pm

You can look at it that way if you want, but my advice would be to avoid having it be your turn at the final three.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #129 (isolation #23) » Sat Mar 31, 2007 8:10 pm

Alright so Zindaras is dead and it's Eletriar's turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #132 (isolation #24) » Sun Apr 01, 2007 3:08 pm

Well, I've thought of a rule for similar games (like a Big Brother game with no jury) where the person whose turn it is at the final 3 selects which of the other two will be

second

place, and then this person decides which of the other two is the winner and which is third place.

But for this game I don't think it's too much to ask to expect people to just try not to be the guy who can't possibly win. Since you can see what's coming up.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #138 (isolation #25) » Mon Apr 02, 2007 6:41 am

So klebian is dead and it's Occult's turn!

edit: By the way, the OP contains the full list with who's dead (and by whom) and whose turn it is.

Kelly Chen · Post Post #141 (isolation #26) » Mon Apr 02, 2007 9:57 am

Ok so remussaidow is dead and it's Mert's turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #144 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 02, 2007 10:42 am

Ok so MM is dead and now it's Pooky's turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #166 (isolation #28) » Wed Apr 04, 2007 6:03 am

alright so then JDodge is up!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #177 (isolation #29) » Thu Apr 05, 2007 3:31 am

So bethelmark is dead and it's dom:inc's turn!

I wonder if he's reading the thread...?

Kelly Chen · Post Post #179 (isolation #30) » Fri Apr 06, 2007 8:37 am

Early Sunday morning for me. *rubs hands greedily*

Kelly Chen · Post Post #185 (isolation #31) » Sat Apr 07, 2007 9:51 am

Sadly he is already dead. I think I forgot to mourn him in-thread but I will do that now.

Moment of silence.

...

Kelly Chen · Post Post #189 (isolation #32) » Sun Apr 08, 2007 1:13 am

Alright so CoG888 is dead and it's CES' turn again!

These players are left:
6 CES

<- currently up

13 Wizardcat
12 autoload
5 Eletriar
1 Occult
14 Mert
9 Pooky
3 JDodge
23 dom:inc

Remember that the winner of this game gets their name in the subject line of the OP in perpetuity!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #191 (isolation #33) » Sun Apr 08, 2007 4:27 am

Alright so Wizardcat is dead and it's autoload's turn!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #195 (isolation #34) » Sun Apr 08, 2007 6:43 pm

Alright so JDodge is dead and Eletriar is up!

6 CES
12 autoload
5 Eletriar

<- currently up

1 Occult
14 Mert
9 Pooky
23 dom:inc

Kelly Chen · Post Post #204 (isolation #35) » Tue Apr 10, 2007 4:39 am

Tomorrow evening Eletriar will die! Heh heh heh!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #206 (isolation #36) » Tue Apr 10, 2007 5:46 am

Ok so CES is dead and it's Occult's turn!

20 STD

killed by CoG888!

7 bethelmark

killed by JDodge!

18 remussaidow

killed by Occult!

17 CoG888

killed by dom:inc!

8 Jingolaw

killed by Wizardcat!

15 klebian

killed by Eletriar!

6 CES

killed by Eletriar!

2 Mr Stoofer

killed by remussaidow!

13 Wizardcat

killed by CES!

21 bigAl

killed by CES!

12 autoload
5 Eletriar
1 Occult

<- currently up

14 Mert
9 Pooky

16 MM

killed by Mert!

4 Zindaras

killed by autoload!

10 bird1111

killed by bethelmark!

19 pete d

killed by STD!

11 BHNY

killed by Jingolaw!

3 JDodge

killed by autoload

22 myself

killed by klebian!

23 dom:inc

24 Shotgun_holiday

killed by Pooky!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #222 (isolation #37) » Wed Apr 11, 2007 6:20 am

Yeah I didn't really think of the potential effect of that

Kelly Chen · Post Post #224 (isolation #38) » Wed Apr 11, 2007 12:33 pm

(No there is a surprise ending)

Kelly Chen · Post Post #226 (isolation #39) » Thu Apr 12, 2007 1:56 am

Ok so Pooky is dead and it's Mert's turn!

edit:
14 Mert

<- currently up

23 dom:inc
12 autoload
5 Eletriar
1 Occult

Think this through carefully guys! People are going to get shut out of any hope of winning really quick!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #229 (isolation #40) » Thu Apr 12, 2007 6:35 am

Then dom:inc is dead and it's autoload's turn!

12 autoload

<- currently up

5 Eletriar
1 Occult
14 Mert

Eletriar can no longer win!

Kelly Chen · Post Post #232 (isolation #41) » Thu Apr 19, 2007 1:35 am

What a damn shame that all this commentary is lost. I thought it showed that this game isn't as stupid as it looks.