Ok, recall that this is our turn order:
20 STD
7 bethelmark
18 remussaidow
17 CoG888
8 Jingolaw
15 klebian
6 CES
2 Mr Stoofer
13 Wizardcat
21 bigAl
12 autoload
5 Eletriar
1 Occult
14 Mert
9 Pooky
16 MM
4 Zindaras
10 bird1111
19 pete d
11 BHNY
3 JDodge
22 myself
23 dom:inc
24 Shotgun_holiday
It seems for some reason to be
wrong
that the later players are less likely to win. Save The Dragons is somewhat more likely to win, but after him everyone through Eletriar is
less
likely than average to win, with CES being least likely to win of anyone!
From Occult onwards, the odds go up and then down, but all are above average. pete d is the most likely to win the game. STD's odds of winning are a bit less than Mert's, but noticeably better than Occult before him who is basically exactly average. Shotgun_holiday is more likely to win than Mert, but less likely than Pooky.
When I ran the simulation for 23 players, STD was below average like everyone near him. I'm not sure why 24 players put him up. [EDIT: actually I remember he was just barely below average, and he's not really that great now.]
Now I also measured the number of kills everybody is expected to be able to make relative to the average. Predictably here, earlier players are more likely to get to kill, and also more likely to get to kill a second time. Everyone through autoload should expect a higher number of kill opportunities than average.
So bet on pete d to win, and if you bet on CES already try to get your money back. And certainly don't use your kill on him, what a waste!
Here's the raw results that I don't feel like explaining.
[EDIT: Crap, I seem to have deleted the first column. There are some minuses missing.]
102993
.401605 4705 -.3227161 3959 -.8062441 3461 -1.4325 2816 -1.901464 2333
2.212165 2013 -2.23838 1986 -2.128664 2099 -1.829615 2407 -1.49464 2752
1.083933 3175 -.5217587 3754 5.012476E-02 4343 .5355946 4843 1.048251
5371 1.338562 5670 1.658972 6000 1.976469 6327 2.033755 6386 1.819177
6165 1.789078 6134 1.444394 5779 1.145345 5471 .7307535 5044
2.561524 159380 2.246686 151922 1.955995 145036 1.66522 138148
1.382845 131459 1.138379 125668 .8710753 119336 .6578063 114284
.4370652 109055 .2312682 104180 3.193007E-02 99458 -.1319055 95577
.3099252 91360 -.463207 87729 -.6333326 83699 -.7961549 79842 -.9181556
76952 -1.059575 73602 -1.166083 71079 -1.316241 67522 -1.412575 65240
1.53694 62294 -1.650286 59609 -1.785416 56408