The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread (complete)

[Toomai]

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding and/or draws.

Spoiler: General/subsetup stats

Setup	Wins	Losses	Winrate	Games
1 (JK)	40	35	53.3%	75
2 (RB, Cop, Doc)	45	38	54.2%	83
3 (BP, Trk)	34	48	41.5%	82
A (JK, RB, BP)	31	48	39.2%	79
B (Cop)	33	45	42.3%	78
C (Doc, Trk)	34	42	44.7%	76
Total	217	256	45.9%	473

Spoiler: Result stats

Average player types per game: 5.5 Newbies, 2.5 SEs, 1.0 ICs

Player	Win %	Total slots
Town Newbies	46.1%	2029
Scum Newbies	52.8%	566
Total Newbies	47.6%	2595
Town SEs	45.3%	924
Scum SEs	57.0%	265
Total SEs	47.9%	1189
Town ICs	45.8%	358
Scum ICs	53.9%	115
Total ICs	47.8%	473
All town	45.9%	3311
All scum	54.1%	946
All players	47.7%	4257

Spoiler: Replacement stats

Notes:

If a slot is replaced twice, that counts as one replaced slot and two replaced players. Therefore, the player rate cannot be any lower than the slot rate. A slot rate of 100% means that all 9 slots were replaced at least once. A player rate of 100% means that 9 players (from any slots) were replaced (so it can exceed 100%). I don't know which type of rate is better to use, though using both is useful (it tells us whether all the replacements came from one slot or were distributed amongst multiple slots). (Reminder: The Matrix6 setup has 9 players, hence why 9 appears in the previous.)

On average, games replace 2.9 slots with a standard deviation of 1.63, and 3.5 players with a standard deviation of 2.21.

Player	Slot replacement rate	Player replacement rate
Town Newbies	38.9%	46.8%
Scum Newbies	43.5%	56.3%
Total Newbies	39.9%	48.9%
Town SEs	24.3%	27.0%
Scum SEs	26.7%	29.3%
Total SEs	24.8%	27.5%
Town ICs	10.3%	11.1%
Scum ICs	16.4%	16.4%
Total ICs	11.8%	12.4%
All town	31.7%	37.4%
All scum	35.5%	43.9%
All players	32.6%	38.9%

Spoiler: Power role stats

The rate of each role living to endgame is as follows:

Role	Setups	Town win	Scum win	Total
Jailkeeper	1 and A	48% (71 games)	12% (83 games)	29% (154 games)
Cop	2 and B	51% (78 games)	7% (83 games)	29% (161 games)
Doctor	2 and C	51% (79 games)	19% (80 games)	35% (159 games)
Bulletproof	3 and A	86% (65 games)	68% (96 games)	75% (161 games)
Tracker	3 and C	49% (68 games)	11% (90 games)	27% (158 games)
Roleblocker	2 and A	0% (by definition)	88% (86 games)	47% (162 games)

Interesting notes (ask for more):

• In setup 2, in scum wins, 8% of Cops get lynched Day 1, and 39% get killed Night 1, leaving only 53% alive for Day 2 (38 games)
  
• In setup 2, in scum wins, 18% of Doctors get killed Night 1, and 21% get killed Night 2 (38 games)
  
• In setup 2, in scum wins, the Roleblocker is alive at the end 92% of the time (38 games)
  
• In setup 3, 35% of Trackers are killed Night 2 in town wins, while 42% are killed N2 in scum wins (82 games)
  
• In setup 3, in scum wins, only 25% of Trackers are alive by Day 3, and 10% survive to endgame (48 games)
  
• In setup B, in town wins, 24% of Cops get killed Night 1, and only 48% survive to endgame (33 games)
  
• In setup B, in scum wins, 11% of Cops get lynched Day 1, 42% of Cops get killed Night 1, and only 16% of Cops are alive by Day 3 (45 games)
  
• In setup C, in scum wins, 26% of Doctors get killed Night 1 while another 50% die Night 2, leaving 17% alive for Day 3 (42 games)

Spoiler: Day 1 stats

• Town-scum-NL rate: 368-94-10 (random lynching would give 367-105-0; the difference is [0.19%]-[-2.31%]-[+2.12%])
  
• If town is lynched D1, they go 137-231 (37.2%)
  
• If scum is lynched D1, they go 17-77 (18.1%)
  
• If there is no lynch D1, town goes 2-8 (20.0%)

Spoiler: Lynch accuracy stats

In the following table, the first three columns are the raw percentages, while the last two are the difference between that and random (positive = more, negative = less). So when town does better than random, it has a negative in lynching town and a positive in lynching scum (random never no-lynches, so the difference is the data).
Note that, due to the way in which I store the stats, if a game has a no-lynch followed by a no-kill (two chances to lynch with the same ratio), the first one is ignored and the second one counts. As a result there's probably a slightly higher number of no-lynches than is being reported.

Ratio	Town	Scum	No lynch		Town	Scum
7:2 (474 samples)	78.7%	19.8%	1.5%		+0.9%	-2.4%
7:1 (30 samples)	53.3%	46.7%	0.0%		-34.2%	+34.2%
6:2 (83 samples)	55.4%	38.6%	6.0%		-19.6%	+13.6%
6:1 (76 samples)	57.9%	40.8%	1.3%		-27.8%	+26.5%
5:2 (308 samples)	64.6%	33.1%	2.3%		-6.8%	+4.5%
5:1 (68 samples)	52.9%	45.6%	1.5%		-30.4%	+28.9%
4:2 (78 samples)	38.5%	29.5%	32.1%		-28.2%	-3.8%
4:1 (123 samples)	57.7%	41.5%	0.8%		-22.3%	+21.5%
3:2 (194 samples)	59.8%	38.7%	1.5%		-0.2%	-1.3%
3:1 (77 samples)	53.2%	32.5%	14.3%		-21.8%	+7.5%
2:1 (132 samples)	53.8%	44.7%	1.5%		-12.9%	+11.4%

Spoiler: Game length stats

• No games have ended with Day 1 lynch (only possible via modkills)
  
• No games have ended with Night 1 kill (only possible via modkills)
  
• Games that end with Day 2 lynch take 20.0 days with standard deviation of 5.43 (40 games)
  
• No games have ended with Night 2 kill (only possible via modkills)
  
• Games that end with Day 3 lynch take 34.6 days with standard deviation of 9.99 (196 games)
  
• Games that end with Night 3 kill take 39.5 days with standard deviation of 9.10 (10 games)
  
• Games that end with Day 4 lynch take 44.5 days with standard deviation of 12.86 (180 games)
  
• Games that end with Night 4 kill take 46.7 days with standard deviation of 8.16 (4 games)
  
• Games that end with Day 5 lynch take 49.9 days with standard deviation of 14.49 (39 games)
  
• One game has ended with Night 5 kill; it took 62.5 days
  
• Games that end with Day 6 lynch take 56.6 days with standard deviation of 10.88 (4 games)
  
• No games have ended with Night 6 kill
  
• One game has ended with Day 7 lynch; it took 84.0 days
  
• Overall, games take 39.0 days with standard deviation of 13.92; the vast majority of games end with a Day 3 or Day 4 lynch (79.16%), with Day 2 and Day 5 lynches being tied for second-most common (16.63%)

Spoiler: Replacement vs. length stats

• When 0 slots are replaced all game, games take 27.9 days with standard deviation of 11.86 (24 games)
  
• When 1 slot is replaced all game, games take 34.3 days with standard deviation of 12.81 (76 games)
  
• When 2 slots are replaced all game, games take 35.5 days with standard deviation of 12.23 (102 games)
  
• When 3 slots are replaced all game, games take 38.4 days with standard deviation of 13.26 (103 games)
  
• When 4 slots are replaced all game, games take 44.2 days with standard deviation of 14.43 (84 games)
  
• When 5 slots are replaced all game, games take 44.2 days with standard deviation of 12.34 (58 games)
  
• When 6 slots are replaced all game, games take 47.6 days with standard deviation of 12.35 (20 games)
  
• When 7 slots are replaced all game, games take 50.1 days with standard deviation of 14.57 (7 games)
  
• One game replaced 8 slots; it took 71.5 days
  
• No games have had 9 slots replaced

• When 0 players are replaced all game, games take 27.9 days with standard deviation of 11.86 (24 games)
  
• When 1 player is replaced all game, games take 33.8 days with standard deviation of 12.87 (66 games)
  
• When 2 players are replaced all game, games take 34.9 days with standard deviation of 12.62 (85 games)
  
• When 3 players are replaced all game, games take 37.0 days with standard deviation of 11.83 (89 games)
  
• When 4 players are replaced all game, games take 41.0 days with standard deviation of 14.41 (78 games)
  
• When 5 players are replaced all game, games take 42.7 days with standard deviation of 12.99 (48 games)
  
• When 6 players are replaced all game, games take 46.3 days with standard deviation of 12.54 (37 games)
  
• When 7 players are replaced all game, games take 45.3 days with standard deviation of 11.13 (22 games)
  
• When 8 players are replaced all game, games take 54.4 days with standard deviation of 9.85 (14 games)
  
• When 9 players are replaced all game, games take 56.5 days with standard deviation of 16.49 (4 games)
  
• When 10 players are replaced all game, games take 50.9 days with standard deviation of 14.19 (6 games)
  
• When 11 players are replaced all game, games take 51.1 days with standard deviation of 28.88 (2 games)
  
• No games have had more than 11 players replaced

Spoiler: Replacement vs. winrate stats

For slots:

• When 0 slots are replaced all game, town goes 13-11 (54.2%)
  
• When 1 slot is replaced all game, town goes 40-36 (52.6%)
  
• When 2 slots are replaced all game, town goes 48-54 (47.1%)
  
• When 3 slots are replaced all game, town goes 51-52 (49.5%)
  
• When 4 slots are replaced all game, town goes 41-43 (48.8%)
  
• When 5 slots are replaced all game, town goes 21-36 (36.8%)
  
• When 6 slots are replaced all game, town goes 3-16 (15.8%)
  
• When 7 slots are replaced all game, town goes 0-7 (0.0%)
  
• When 8 slots are replaced all game, town goes 0-1 (0.0%)
  
• No games have had 9 slots replaced

For players:

• When 0 players are replaced all game, town goes 13-11 (54.2%)
  
• When 1 player is replaced all game, town goes 35-31 (53.0%)
  
• When 2 players are replaced all game, town goes 39-46 (45.9%)
  
• When 3 players are replaced all game, town goes 43-46 (48.3%)
  
• When 4 players are replaced all game, town goes 34-44 (43.6%)
  
• When 5 players are replaced all game, town goes 22-26 (45.8%)
  
• When 6 players are replaced all game, town goes 17-20 (45.9%)
  
• When 7 players are replaced all game, town goes 7-14 (33.3%)
  
• When 8 players are replaced all game, town goes 4-9 (30.8%)
  
• When 9 players are replaced all game, town goes 1-3 (25.0%)
  
• When 10 players are replaced all game, town goes 2-4 (33.3%)
  
• When 11 players are replaced all game, town goes 0-2 (0.0%)
  
• No games have had more than 11 players replaced

Spoiler: Replacement vs. role stats

Role	Slots	Slots replaced	Players replaced
Vanilla Townie	2528	33.0%	39.2%
Jailkeeper	156	31.4%	33.3%
Cop	161	20.5%	24.2%
Doctor	159	33.3%	39.6%
1-Shot Bulletproof	163	30.1%	35.6%
Tracker	158	22.8%	25.9%
Mafia Goon	786	34.7%	44.4%
Mafia Roleblocker	164	39.0%	41.5%

The following is a z-score graph. 0 means "is exactly average". 1 means "is 1 standard deviation above average"; -1 means "is 1 standard deviation below average". In other words, high bars mean "more replaces", while low mean "less replaces".

Spoiler: Perfect win stats

• Out of 217 town wins, 40 wins (18.4%) involved only scum lynches.
  • 26 wins (12.0%) were semi-perfect (no town lynches).
  • 14 wins (6.5%) were perfect (no town deaths).
• Out of 256 scum wins, 146 wins (57.0%) were perfect (no scum deaths).

Notes

• For any stat that counts wins and losses, draws are ignored.
  
• The replacement stats recorded here are likely lower than in reality, as replacements are not recorded if the player never confirmed, or the player was force-replaced due to a mod error or something similar that was not the replaced player's fault. If a player posts in any way (or has been acknowledged by the mod as having confirmed/read their role PM), or gets themselves force-replaced (such as getting banned), replacing them counts.
  
• Slot-based stats might be a bit off due to cases where slots "level up" via replacement (e.g. an experienced player replaces into a newbie slot).
  
• Players are assumed to have won regardless of modkills (unnecessary complication).
  
• Only notable and requested PR stats are listed. Ask for one to get it added.

For more comprehensive graphs, please see the original spreadsheet (.xlsx, 3.57MB).

If you'd like to know something that isn't here, I'll see what I can do.

[Toomai]

I'm confused how it was possible for games to have ended on night 3.

Example would be 1376. No lynch occured in D3 LyLo, so the N3 kill made the game 2:2 for the win. The JK was still alive so it was still possible for town to pull it out, which I guess is why the game wasn't ended on the spot.

[Toomai]

I skim over every Newbie game in progress and note when a replacement has occured (just by noting in the Excel file), and once a game has finished I fill in the rest (because even though who has died and what roles they have are public information, I want to stay on the safe side of mentioning ongoing games). Sometimes cross-referencing with the Newbie Queue is necessary if mods don't keep their playerlist in signup order with clear indication of who has which slot. Everything is then run through a bevy of tables and math, and the numbers just pop out.

[Toomai]

If you download the spreadsheet, you'll see the math on sheets 2 and 3.

Currently I assume that once a slot is replaced, it's been replaced and no further replacements will have an effect on the game. As a result the actual number of players being replaced is probably higher than reported. I'm working on a way to fix this.

[Toomai]

OpenOffice doesn't seem to render the spreadsheet math properly.

That's not really surprising, it's pretty heavy-duty formulas that OO might not use the same syntax for. I don't think it's worth my time right now to try and make it work for multiple programs, so I'm afraid you're out of luck there unless you can convert the functions yourself.

Why don't you type a single R for every replacement and have the math count the number of characters in each cell?

I'm implementing a similar idea (a number in each cell) in a new file and will post here once it's repopulated.

[Toomai]

Well, I don't know what formulas it has that other programs don't have, so pretty much yes. (Based on your screenshots, COUNTIF and COUNTBLANK look like likely culprits, and I don't know how I'd get around that.)

[Toomai]

Yeah there's a ton of mixing consistent and inconsistent formulas. I have those warnings turned off.

[Toomai]

I don't think Dropbox does collaboration, though I could be wrong.

[Toomai]

Eh I'm not sold that collaboration is necessary at this time, it takes 10-20 minutes of work a day to update. (I'm also working on a version 2, which will be just improved overall in several areas (like counting multiple replacements of one slot), but might need to be in a totally different input format.)

That said,

hey mods if you're reading this, it's most appreciated to keep a full playerlist that's in signup order

. It just makes everything easier.

[Toomai]

Bit of a teaser for the upcoming v2:

This is a rolling average for slots replaced per game - the blue is per 10, the red is per 25, and the green is per 50.

[Toomai]

Version 2 of the spreadsheet is out. It's quite a bit beefier than the previous version (700KB+) but gives us a much better idea of replacement stats. I'll be updating the first post shortly.

Version 1 will no longer be updated and I'll probably delete the link to it.

[Toomai]

No, but I should be able to look at doing such once I have the first post here updated. Do you mean "number of replacements in a game vs which faction wins", or "whether a slot is replaced vs whether it won"?

[Toomai]

No, but I should be able to look at doing such once I have the first post here updated. Do you mean "number of replacements in a game vs which faction wins", or "whether a slot is replaced vs whether it won"?

The first one. I've seen it bandied about a lot that "replacements help Scum" but I wonder if that's really true.

Here you go: (images are same as in first post, so they auto-update every now and then)

It might also be interesting to see whether the alignment of the replaced slot had anything to do with it (do Scum replacements weaken that faction? or strengthen it (perhaps because they're usually more experienced)?) but that seems like it might be a little too much work.

Yeah I don't know what I could do to get that.

[Toomai]

I have a new stat coming in a few minutes (I'm just posting so it's not at the bottom of a page) - replacements sorted by role. It's pretty interesting.

[Toomai]

The following is a z-score graph. 0 means "is exactly average". 1 means "is 1 standard deviation above average"; -1 means "is 1 standard deviation below average". In other words, high bars mean "more replaces", while low mean "less replaces".

While this mostly says what you'd expect (PRs on either side are less likely to be replaced), it's fascinating to see that both of the town protective roles instead have average replacement rates.

[Toomai]

My advanced statistics is a bit rusty, so I turned to this page that I found. According to it, with 374 town players replacing out of 980 slots, and 136 scum players replacing out of 280 slots, the z-score of comparing the two is -3.1292, with a p-value of 0.00174 - significant at p = 0.01. (For slots replaced instead of players replaced, Z = -2.4829 and p = 0.01314, which is almost also significant for p = 0.01.)

So as I understand it,

there is a 99% chance that replace-outs are significant between alignments

.

Here's a few more comparisons (all for "players replaced" as opposed to "slots replaced"):

• VTs vs all players: Z = 0.5059, p = 0.61006
  
• JKs vs all players: Z = -0.3093, p = 0.75656
  
• Cops vs all players:
  Z = -2.3338, p = 0.0198
  
  
• Docs vs all players: Z = -0.1237, p = 0.90448
  
• BPs vs all players:
  Z = -2.7577, p = 0.00578
  
  
• Trackers vs all players:
  Z = -3.6013, p = 0.00032
  
  
• Goons vs all players:
  Z = 3.0974, p = 0.00194
  
  
• RBs vs all players: Z = -1.0128, p = 0.3125

[Toomai]

Follow the link near the bottom of the first post; all the data is there, and it updates every time I save the file.

[Toomai]

You probably want to use the CC-CT columns then. Here's some examples of what the values mean:

• For CC-CK, a "G0" means "a Goon slot that was never replaced", while a "G1" means "a Goon slot that was replaced at least once".
  
• For CL-CT, a "G0" means "a Goon slot that was replaced 0 times", while a "G2" means "a Goon slot that was replaced 2 times".

SEs are always in slots 7 and 8, but slot 6 can be a newbie or an SE depending how many SEs there were in the game; use BF-BQ of the main Data sheet to figure this out.

Then, you can do something similar to what the CV-DS columns do - CV-DC calculate how many of each role is in the game, while DD-DK counts the slots of that role replaced while DL-DS counts the players of that role replaced. So for example a 3 in a slot column means 3 separate slots were replaced, while a 3 in a player column means 3 players were replaced, which might be in different slots or the same slot.

[Toomai]

Bumping this to note that in the case of a draw (which has happened recently), that game will be ignored for any win-loss stat, but still count for other stats.

[Toomai]

Okay going to fix that.

[Toomai]

On the other hand, finding the percentage of scum wins when their partner days D1 would be doable.

And already done too.

• If scum is lynched D1, they go 5-33 (13.2%)

[Toomai]

16.0% of town wins are semi-perfect (no town lynches).
7.4% of town wins are perfect (no town deaths).
62.8% of scum wins are perfect (no scum deaths).

I'll integrate this into the first post next time I do an undate.

[Toomai]

I kinda missed what exactly was proposed here. So you'd like to see stats like "When the game reaches 5:2, town mislynches X% of the time"? Or "When the game reaches 5:2, town's win rate is Y%"? Or something else?

I mean, the idea seems doable (if not as trivial as some of the other stats), but I'd like something a bit more concrete.

[Toomai]

Okay so kind of an extrapolation of the Day 1 lynch accuracy stats. That should be doable.

[Toomai]

Took a bit longer than expected but I have the stats. I plan to do justice to them in an update later today or tomorrow, but here's some things that jumped out at me:

• Half of all no-lynches occur in 4:2.
  
• Town is far better than random in 6:1, scoring a scum lynch rate of 43.8% (expected 14.3%). 7:1 is similar (46.2% instead of 12.5%) but has only 13 samples so far.
  
• Scum gets lynched in 33.8% of 3:2 LyLos (expected 40%) and 56.1% of 2:1 LyLos (expected 1/3).
  
• 3:2 is the only ratio where town does worse than random in "don't lynch town". But it's also the ratio where random has the best chance of succeding, so that's not saying much.

Note that, due to the way in which I store the stats, if a game has a no-lynch followed by a no-kill (two chances to lynch with the same ratio), the first one is ignored and the second one counts. As a result there's probably a slightly higher number of no-lynches than is being reported.

[Toomai]

Did the update. Have a look.

[Toomai]

Jailkeepers live longer than Roleblockers but replace out at the same rate (per slot) as Goons. I don't think "average lifespan" would be a telling stat in that regard.

[Toomai]

I found an error in the spreadsheets that resulted in reversing the lifespan of Jailkeepers and Bulletproofs in setup A, meaning JKs were living too long and BPs were dying night 1. I have corrected it.

[Toomai]

BREAKING NEWS

(yes, this deserves such formatting)

Town is 54-76 (41.5%) in games with 5 newbies, 3 SEs, and 1 IC.
Town is 40-27 (59.7%) in games with 6 newbies, 2 SEs, and 1 IC.

The p-value for this is 0.01552 (Z-score -2.418).

There is a statistically significant difference in town winrate between 5-3-1 games and 6-2-1 games.

Currently, the listmod chooses whether a game will be 5-3-1 or 6-2-1 based simply on how many people happen to be queued up. Maybe this might need to change.

[Toomai]

Can you run the numbers by final distribution of newbie/SE/IC instead of starting?

No unfortunately, for both technical and practical reasons.

I'm kind of curious to know how win rates correlate to the ratio of SEs/ICs to newbies on each faction.

I had this in v1 of the project. Don't remember why it's not in v2. I'll see if I can revive it.

Isn't the sample size too small to draw conclusions?

The typical yardstick of significance is 30 samples, and we have 130 of one and 67 of the other.

[Toomai]

Okay stat acquired.

"421-110" is "town has 4Nb, 2SE, 1IC; scum has 1Nb, 1SE, 0IC". And so on.

This isn't statistically significant overall at the moment, but the pattern is evident.

[Toomai]

I'm sure there's a way to figure out the mathematical probability

Assuming pure randomness, the odds of any particular type of scumteam are:

• 5Nb-3SE-1IC
  • Nb-Nb: 20/72 (~27.8%)
  • Nb-SE: 30/72 (~41.7%)
  • Nb-IC: 10/72 (~13.9%)
  • SE-SE: 6/72 (~8.3%)
  • SE-IC: 6/72 (~8.3%)
• 6Nb-2SE-1IC
  • Nb-Nb: 30/72 (~41.7%)
  • Nb-SE: 24/72 (~33.3%)
  • Nb-IC: 12/72 (~16.7%)
  • SE-SE: 2/72 (~2.8%)
  • SE-IC: 4/72 (~5.6%)

[Toomai]

For the record, the one remaining scum of Newbie 1574 conceded the game. To keep the stats functional, I have recorded this as a lynch on the offending scumbum.

[Toomai]

Okay this is officially ridiculous.

The slot replacement rate for newbie scum slots is now 87.5%, and the player replacement rate is now 110.6%.

In other words, newbie scum slots have a 7/8 chance of seeing at least one replacement, with an average replacements-per-game of 1.1.

And because I don't count most pregame replacements, nor replacements that are another person's fault, this is a lower bound.

[Toomai]

Newbie town slots?

...get replaced less than half as often. (42% of them saw at least one replacement, average of 0.515 replacements per game)

If we gave scum daytalk, I think that would help decrease the amount of newbie scum replacements.

This is true, but scum already has a winning percentage advantage, and it's not necessarily representative of the site as a whole.

[Toomai]

Okay this is gonna make me look stupid but here it is.

I found a major bug in the replacements pivot tables. Basically, all slots in all games since 1531 were being counted as both town and scum for the question of "how many times did this slot get replaced". I don't have a clue how it happened, nor why Excel didn't pop up one of its "these adjacent formulas don't match" boxes to tell me.

So expect some major changes to the replacement stats in the next little bit. I suspect things will look far less ridiculous once it's all corrected.

[Toomai]

Okay so this is somewhat interesting: setup A (JK+RB+BP) has gone on a town win streak lately and is now above 40% like all the other subsetups. It remains the lest-common setup too, so there's still room to improve as well.

[Toomai]

Do you think the below average winrate for setup A will rise once the number of games completed for that setup rises more in line with the rest?

30 samples is traditionally where statisticians put the "minimum" mark for a binary collection. Since all the subsetups have now passed that, I don't expect the winrates to change too much from now on unless one faction's meta gets a power boost.

[Toomai]

I have begun to add the stats for the ongoing daytalk experiment to the first post. With only 2 completed games so far, there's nothing important to say about it so far other than it's there.

[Toomai]

I think there's a high chance of unintended consequences with your methodology. Possible example: since the Jailkeeper know knows he no longer has a potential BP clogging up the works, he can be much more confident in his actions in both setups, therefore raising the town winrate in both.

[Toomai]

The most important stat I see is that random lynching is better than non-random lynching.

If this is a blanket statement, I don't think you're reading it right. There are specific ratios where random lynching and directed lynching are basically equal at catching scum, but the majority of the time, directed lynching kills less town and more scum than random lynching would.

[Toomai]

A few people have PMed me about this so I'll answer here:

I haven't been updating the first post lately because I've decided to wait for all the newbie daytalk games to finish (which at this point is just 1688). Once that's done and I've outed the results, I'll begin updating this topic again.

[Toomai]

Seems like bulletproof is a -EV power for town. I'm really not sure why this setup hasn't been updated or changed when these stats are available and showing what a terrible PR BP is.

There's been a lot of discussion over the BP, though for different reasons - a claim strategy was invented that was purported to break the game. But after the strategy was tried and it doesn't appear to have stuck, the imputus to change the role/setup has died somewhat.

It may be true that the two BP setups have the lowest town winrates. It's not ideal, but this doesn't mean it's inherently a bad thing that must be changed. The overall town winrate in the setup is still 45.9%; it's hard to do much better than that. So as long as no subsetup gets too much past 60%/40% (setup 3 is hovering at 39.7% right now), I think it's fine how it is.

[Toomai]

Town ICs 10.4% 11.3%
Scum ICs 16.5% 16.5%

This feels like a possible issue -- the scum IC replace out rate is much higher (?) than the town IC replace-out rate.

Z=-1.3832 and p=0.16758, so this isn't actually a statistically significant difference.

That said, an IC replace out rate of even 10% is incredibly disappointing.

I don't have a stat for this, but an eye test suggests that IC replaces come in waves; we get stretches of 20-30 games with none, than a bunch of 20 games with 3 or 4.

[Toomai]

It's over. The last Matrix6 game ended a few days ago, and the stats are now complete.

Overall? The setup was good. The faction winrate was 46:54, and each individual player coming in had a 47.7% chance to win. Sure, the isolated subsetups are less than ideal, and the BP was widely determined to be a problem. But as a coherent whole, it's hard to do much better than that.

I'll be putting up the 2d3 stats thread once it has 10 completed games.