The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread (complete)

~Jordan` · Post Post #6 (isolation #0) » Mon Mar 10, 2014 7:40 pm

presenting data and then talking about it afterward seems like a good plan

~Jordan` · Post Post #18 (isolation #1) » Fri Mar 14, 2014 9:19 am

Coooool.

~Jordan` · Post Post #52 (isolation #2) » Sun Jun 08, 2014 12:20 pm

BOTH?!

~Jordan` · Post Post #55 (isolation #3) » Sun Jun 08, 2014 1:04 pm

it's an official scumtell, tho

~Jordan` · Post Post #58 (isolation #4) » Sun Jun 08, 2014 5:03 pm

In post 56, tn5421 wrote:
In post 55, ~Jordan` wrote:it's an official scumtell, tho
Getting permabanned from speakeasy is a lot more scummy than replacing out, I'd wager.

well that came outta nowhere
haven't you been here long enough to know what scummy means?

~Jordan` · Post Post #61 (isolation #5) » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:38 am

scumtell means more likely to be scum

think of it this way,
presuming D1 and 2 vs 9 and the accuracy of your calculations, if in these games studied...
a town lynched randomly, they'd lynch scum correctly maybe a little more than 20% of the time on average
if town instead lynched on the basis of replacements, that rate skyrockets to nearly 50%
that's what makes something a scumtell: they indicate scumhood at a rate better than chance

~Jordan` · Post Post #62 (isolation #6) » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:42 am

In post 60, TierShift wrote:47.4% is a lot higher than the regular 2/9 chance of hitting scum when lynching randomly. In fact, if you have odds of 47% of hitting scum, I'd say it warrants a PL.

if it's based on a scumread, it's not a PL
but I agree to a big extent; it seems that if you found someone scummy before and then they replaced out, the strength of your read should in general increase

~Jordan` · Post Post #72 (isolation #7) » Sun Jun 15, 2014 2:03 pm

~Jordan` · Post Post #139 (isolation #8) » Thu Jun 04, 2015 1:58 am

daytalk is the best