The Newbie Matrix6 stats thread (complete)

TierShift · Post Post #8 (isolation #0) » Tue Mar 11, 2014 4:15 am

Okay, I've been running some chi-square tests.
Scumteams aren't significant, alas. Setups, however, are.

Setup 1 is significantly better for town than setup C (p~0.02) and setup 3 (p~0.01)
the rest of the tests have come up as not statistically significant (at p<0.05).

This means that a JK is better for town than a tracker+doc or tracker+1-shot BP.
Does this need balancing? I'm leaning towards no, as newbie games are more about learning the game and about the most used roles than about absolute balance, but if it is something that needs to be done, tracker should be replaced by a slightly stronger investigative role, such as (x-shot) watcher. It's possibly worth discussing.

TierShift · Post Post #11 (isolation #1) » Tue Mar 11, 2014 6:57 am

Hmm...apparently my knowledge of statistical tests is not large enough.

It wouldn't suprise me at all to find significant results at 30 games and even more at 100 games each.

TierShift · Post Post #13 (isolation #2) » Tue Mar 11, 2014 9:00 am

I'm not dumb. When we get to a 100 games each there's probably gonna be a lot of statistical significant differences out there, is what I'm saying.

TierShift · Post Post #60 (isolation #3) » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:31 am

47.4% is a lot higher than the regular 2/9 chance of hitting scum when lynching randomly. In fact, if you have odds of 47% of hitting scum, I'd say it warrants a PL.

TierShift · Post Post #63 (isolation #4) » Mon Jun 09, 2014 3:59 am

I doubt our definition of scumtell is the same. I wouldn't classify replacing out as a scumtell.

I actually think newbies replacing or not is more indicative of their alignment than their general play, unless they severely obvtown.

But really, town would win more often if they PL'd all newbie replacements. It would not be fun, but it'd increase winrate.

TierShift · Post Post #76 (isolation #5) » Fri Jun 27, 2014 1:04 pm

Can you perform significance calculations on this? It seems very interesting but I doubt anything but goon is significant due to sample sizes.

TierShift · Post Post #112 (isolation #6) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 12:33 pm

Have you corrected for multiple comparisons? I'm not quite sure that that is statistically significant.

If there is some sort of relation between newbie slots and winrate, I do not understand it. Whatever I can think of, does not nearly explain the large difference.

TierShift · Post Post #122 (isolation #7) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 7:56 pm

Newbie scum have the highest winrate, so that doesn't work. It also doesn't explain why there's such a large difference in winrate.

TierShift · Post Post #124 (isolation #8) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:43 pm

I'm more often fooled by newbscum than by any other type of scum, anywhere. Maybe that's just me.

TierShift · Post Post #127 (isolation #9) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 2:38 am

Setups probably is not going to be a confounder.