Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Paschendale]

VOTE: Shadedmelee

[Paschendale]

VOTE REINEO

Yeah. No selfvote. I cant see town you doing that even as a joke.

Btw. You guys are dumb. Stahp. See you tomorrow night.

Scum found.

How exactly?

[Paschendale]

You don't go in for reasoning or discussion much, do you bjc?

[Paschendale]

That sns vote looks like bullshit to me, Reinoe.

[Paschendale]

Given how poorly Reinoe handles being wagoned early game (see LoTR) I doubt he'd do this as scum, esp. given the set up

He's not being wagoned as anything

I therefore don't understand the connection. He's not being wagoned. What does his reaction to being wagoned have to do with the validity of his vote? And now your vote.

[Paschendale]

It feels less like sns was caught in anything and more like he just wasn't being extremely precise and careful and is being attacked for it. Not having played with him many times I can't speak to how often he gets mislynched, but I can't imagine building up a trend of "always" in a mere three months.

[Paschendale]

This sns business reminds me of the first day of the Sleepy Hollow game, only from the outside.

[Paschendale]

Please note that I was town in that game. It doesn't look to me like sns is caught scum. It looks like he's town being battered and hasn't got the answers that people seem to want from him.

[Paschendale]

sns is being roundabout because he can't give good answer for his behavior. He's resorted to attacking and insulting me instead of answering the questions.

Scum tend to have answers more. They think their actions through. They're more worried about how they're perceived. Town is just trying to find answers and get people to react. That he doesn't have the answers you want and is just getting flustered and angry... that's what town does when they get attacked like this so early in the game.

[Paschendale]

Oh yeah, I do still have my RVS vote up.

Unvote

Big reads post inc.

[Paschendale]

SNS - I've spoken about him at length as to why the wagon on him isn't very good, but what about his content before that? Opposing self-voting on principle is fine. If it looked like it would turn into a lynch, I'd be worried, but on page 2 that's fine. Other than that, most of SNS' content is defending himself, but he's been under attack most of the time, so this is hardly surprising. Leaning town.

Reinoe - Self vote is an odd RVS, but some RVS votes are really just whim. His confidence in SNS as scum is troubling, though. You can't be that sure on post 30. Why on earth would scum quickwagon someone on day 1? It's basically giving up the game. Acting on fear of that is silly. And most of Reinoe's posts are just needling SNS. Honestly, this conflict looks town v town to me. Leaning town.

Not_Mafia - More collected than most previous games. I see this as personal development rather than alignment troubles. His points are solid and he's looking in multiple places. Town.

BJC - Unfounded votes, faux confidence, no reasoning for anything. Keeps harping on me as scum, but has yet to say why. He's trying to sell votes on just bravado and not actual reasons. Scum. Seems kind of obvious, actually.

Bins - Individually, I've been reading Bins' posts as towny. But now, looking at her ISO, I'm turning. She
's kind of condescending (not a scumtell by itself). She is attacking SNS with a lot more clarity than Reinoe, which makes it look a lot worse. Reinoe is defending himself and has gone too far, but Bins isn't being emotional about it. She's just really pushing a bad wagon. Leaning scum.

Maruchan - Very terse. I can tell he's not interested. I'm not interested in him. Null. Contribute more please.

Wickedestjr - Spot on. Reasons, judicious quotes, good questions. Town.

Bulge - Only a couple good posts. Admittedly lurking. Stop that. Leaning (weakly) town.

Fuzzy/Elmo - It's funny that Elmo was bitching about inactivity. Fuzzy is spot on. Want more Fuzzy. Town.

Shadedmelee - Minimal content. Reads list is okay. I don't get the vote on me, though.

Desperado - I get suspicious of Desperado because I've mainly been wrong about his alignment in the past. Lack of content here makes me nervous. Leaning (weakly) scum.

When I started writing this, I wanted to vote for BJC. Now that I'm done, Bins' posts look a lot more deliberate, while BJC is just obnoxious.

VOTE: Bins

[Paschendale]

I very much do not have any explaining to do. I gave honest reads. If pointing out the scummiest players makes you want to lynch me, then you're probably not trying to help town win. There is absolutely no way to rack up four votes that fast from the simple act of giving a read list and not have there be scum on it. Especially not when there's no actual analysis or reason given for those votes. BJC is definitely scum at this point, trying so damn hard to push a mislynch for no reason. I can definitely see Bulge as scum too for his current flailing. His "reason is my post". No explanation of what he objects to in it, just citing an apparently controvercial topic and picking a side to help contribute to a mislynch without being in a position to take any blame when I flip town. Bins vote is opportunistic as well.

But there is nothing you can pressure out of me, N_M. I haven't lied or been inconsistent (except perhaps that I didn't voice my suspicious of BJC enough from the beginning, despite reading him as scummy since the beginning), nor am I hiding anything. There's nothing to extract from me by voting for me.

Bulge, Bins, and BJC are scum. I have almost no doubt.

@SNS: Are you really so daft as to think that I would stick my neck out to defend you from a bad wagon if I were scum? It would have been easy as hell to pile on your wagon. Don't lash out at townies just because you want someone else besides yourself to be under scrutiny.

To anyone complaining about my reads list, maybe you wanna actually say what you don't like about it, preferably something beyond simply disagreeing with it, and we can talk. But take heart, there's three outed scum already. You're welcome.

[Paschendale]

Yeah but you are voting a scum lean and notyour totes scum read.

Because you might just be an asshole. I can think of reasons why my read on you could be wrong, even though I feel strongly about it. I can't think of other explanations for Bins' actions, despite being less certain of the initial read.

@Pasch

Ugh. Why do you have to make me believe you? And calling me daft won't change why I voted you. However, I'm starting to lean bjc scum. Disagreeing with the Bins read though. Hm hm. Yeah. I don't like the people on the wagon.

I'm right a lot more often than people seem to think. I'm fuzzy on why you suspect Desp, though. Could you elaborate?

Every game is a learning experience, win or lose.

I just really like this and want to quote it for posterity.

[Paschendale]

Bins looks like a better and better choice for lynch every time she posts.

[Paschendale]

what the heck are you talking about

You're making banter instead of supporting your votes or trying to convince anyone else. You don't offer reasons or arguments and haven't offered a single useful read. Whatever you're doing, it's not contributing to town's chances to win this game.

[Paschendale]

^That never has and never will make someone scum. Useless town =/= scum. Doesnt mean they shouldn't be lynched, but we should take out scum before we worry about useless town.

They're scum if they're doing it because they're focusing on cultivating a non-threatening image to protect against future suspicion. Deliberately useless town is a far cry from being simply ineffective.

Contrary to what she claims above, "clarity" in this case referred to tone, not quality of content. And as you see above, her "reads" are as inoffensive as possible. Her only two scumreads are popularly criticized, she completely fence sits the Reinoe/sns argument, and calls everyone else town, despite there being five scum in this game. None of her reads are original or get us anywhere.

However, I don't disagree about Bulge, so I'll let Bins simmer on the back burner for a while.

VOTE: Bulge

[Paschendale]

Pasch, have you decided to change your playstyle somewhat over the past few weeks?

If it has changed, it has been unintentional.

Wicked is probscum too, but Bulge is more scummy imo.
We can look at him tomorrow as well.

I think they're both town, but I look forward to the debate.

[Paschendale]

In retrospect, I'm not really sure who I was referring to in that comment, Reinoe. It was probably sns. I don't think Bulge is town. Thanks for pointing that out and giving me a chance to clarify. I want my vote to be on Bulge right now and I plan to keep it there barring new information to change my position.

[Paschendale]

I admittedly forgot to ask about this;

Yeah but you are voting a scum lean and notyour totes scum read.

Because you might just be an asshole. I can think of reasons why my read on you could be wrong, even though I feel strongly about it. I can't think of other explanations for Bins' actions, despite being less certain of the initial read.

If bjc "might just be an asshole" then why did you say he was definitely scum in the first place? There is going to be doubt in every scum read barring a power role result, so there is no reason not to just vote your strongest scum read. The point is that you have slight doubt in your bjc suspicion, but even more doubt in your Bins suspicion. You said bjc was definitely scum and Bins was a scum lean. For that reason, it doesn't make sense that you vote Bins instead of bjc. This seems like a contradiction with a sprinkle of opportunism perhaps.

It's a lot more complicated than that. It's about balancing which reasons I think are more compelling and which possible reasons why I could be wrong are more compelling. Mathematically, I am more sure of Bins, because BinsSuspicions - BinsApprehension > BjcSuspicions - BjcApprehension, but BjcSuspicions > BinsSuspicions, so I am more suspicious of Bjc. It's not opportunism, it's just complex. Also, how exactly is it opportunistic to suspect one of these two when no one else was seriously pursuing either of them?

[Paschendale]

Please do, sns.

[Paschendale]

Pasch, have you decided to change your playstyle somewhat over the past few weeks?

If it has changed, it has been unintentional.

The reason why I ask is because you usually have no trouble establishing strong town cred early. You're often the towniest town who towns up the town. This has frequently led to you getting night-killed ASAP. The situation got so bad that in one of the dead threads you expressed frustration at getting killed so early so often.

I asked if you've changed your playstyle to see if maybe you've decided not to town it up so much. Since you say you're not changing your playstyle I'll have to assume you're scum.

I think you need to check out a few more of my games. I get lynched on day 1 as town pretty often, too. And even when I don't, I have to fight off a pretty aggressive wagon. The anger in the dead thread was over being mislynched early just as much as night killed early. Or the rare occasion where I am correctly lynched right away, but that doesn't happen very often.

[Paschendale]

@Fuzzy: I hate lurker lynches, which is what a Maru lynch is, don't see Shaded as very scummy, and am obviously not scum myself. I do not like your plan.

[Paschendale]

This still kinda sounds like BS. If Bjc apprehension was so significant, then why would you call him definite scum in the first place? When you stated your read you should have taken both Suspicions and Apprehension into account. And it's possible opportunism because I was seriously pursuing Bins. Did you miss that?

Because definite scum was the first reaction, and then I considered it further. You know, evolve reads based on more information. And I wouldn't call asking a few questions "serious pursuit", espeically since nothing ever came of them.

[Paschendale]

What you and bjc are idiotically calling "scumslip" is actually being thoughtful and trying to choose my vote carefully so as to lynch scum and not town.

I'm starting to see the merits of a Shaded wagon. Their ISO consists of an unfounded vote, an assertion of self-evidence for that vote, one question, one terrible reads list, a terrible vote on me, and attempts to justify it after the fact. I take back my previous statement about Shaded not seeming scummy. There's no reasoning, there's one bullshit reason cribbed from someone else, and there's no analysis at all.

[Paschendale]

It's certainly temping, but I'm reluctant to let Bulge off the hook so easily.

[Paschendale]

Yeah, but before you "considered it further" you voted Bins and kept your vote on Bins rather than bjc. In post 232, your reads list, your suspicion of bjc was stronger than your suspicion of Bins. In post 266 you were still voting Bins but called bjc definite scum. "I considered it further" is a great explanation for unvoting bjc after already voting him, but it doesn't explain why you never voted him. I don't understand why you weren't voting him in post 232 or 266 because you suspected him more than Bins when you made those posts.

Well, since I've already explained it, I'm not sure why you don't understand. Moreso, why would it bother you for someone to vote their second strongest scumread?

[Paschendale]

Shaded, the point was that you voted bjc without giving a reason too. So if voting without immediately giving reasons is a scum tell, wouldn't that mean you and bjc are both scum?

I did not tell it is a scum-tell. It is just not pro-town. Bad play.
I wanted bjc to explain his votes, and i meant to be allegorical there by mimicking him. Vote was just to draw attention of him, not because he was scummy.

That's a pretty crappy reason to vote for someone.

[Paschendale]

Well, I'm obviously not going to vote for myself, but Shaded hasn't really stood out to me as scum. The best argument I could make for a lynch there would be how helpful that slot isn't. The three B's look scum for their actions. I'd much rather vote there than vote for inaction.

[Paschendale]

Bzzz bzzz bzzz

Let's talk about the B's.

[Paschendale]

@Mod: I will be V/LA tomorrow and Wednesday.

I'll try to check in tomorrow since the deadline is so close, but I can't make any promises.

[Paschendale]

I really don't see merit in the Splashcloud lynch. I'll check in again before the night is over and vote however I have to in order to avoid a no lynch, but I really think that the case is very thin. Titus's slot is the best of the current wagons.

VOTE: Titus

[Paschendale]

Despite them being by my scumreads, those last votes on Titus by Bulge and Bins didn't look very bussy. It's possible that the whole wagon was town.

@Mist: Can we get a final vote count for day 1?

[Paschendale]

Why did your mind jump to a whole town wagon instead of thinking they're wolves? And do you honestly think a whole town wagon d1 is realistic in a 7-3-2? That would literally mean scum is everyone off the wagon.

That's a good point. I didn't think of that. I think my brain was in single-faction mode. Again, I'd like to see the final votecount so I can break it down and get some ideas.

[Paschendale]

I wanted one from the mod.

Either way, if Bulge and Bins could have been voting for a different faction than their own, then the scumreads (or ww-reads) still stand.

[Paschendale]

I wanted one from the mod.

Either way, if Bulge and Bins could have been voting for a different faction than their own, then the scumreads (or ww-reads) still stand.

What do you mean by this? Sorry, this confuses me a bit.

I was rethinking my scumreads on them because their votes on Titus really didn't look like busses to me. But I had forgotten about the multiball. So, since they can be werewolves and have voted for an enemy there, I see no reason to change my conclusions.

NM makes a good point here. The likelihood of the entire wagon being town is slim to none.
I'd expect a 1-1-4 scenario if anything.

Yes, I agree. I was incorrect before.

Now then, in no way, shape, or form, is analyzing a NK something scum does in thread. What would be the point of that? Voting me for that just shows that you're looking for a lynch without foundation. Find a good reason to vote me and then I'll acknowledge it a little more.

Scum certainly could. But I don't imagine that they would be more likely than town to do so. I think of more interest is that there was only one kill. Whoever stopped the other one, props!

Possible? Technically. But HIGHLY unlikely. I don't like this for some reason. Also noted.

Maybe you should come up with one. Otherwise, this looks like bullshit.

@Pasch - 1) What makes you so sure mine and Bins' votes weren't bussing Titus?
2) Do you think it is plausible that as a pair of werewolves we coordinated the hammer together?

They just don't look like busses. Having seen many and done a few, that's not what they look like. And I don't think your votes require coordination, nor do you necessarily both have to be bad guys. My scumreads on you are independent of each other.

You called

ShadedMelee

/

Titus

scum but didn't vote them. At a time when you were voting no one. If you're his scum partner then it makes sense that you'd want some plausible deniability "I thought he was scum in Post XYZ" but not want to bus him by actually voting him. Not my strongest read ever, but I've lynched people for less.

And I'll bet they flipped town. That's a weak reason.

[Paschendale]

Scum certainly could. But I don't imagine that they would be more likely than town to do so. I think of more interest is that there was only one kill. Whoever stopped the other one, props!

You don't know the set up of an Open game you're in?

No, I just forgot. It's been a really stressful week. And it seems to be continuing.

[Paschendale]

Looking at the votes that weren't on Titus, Fuzzy's is the most suspect. SNS is a townread for me, as is Desperado, though a weaker one. Titus already flipped. It does seem very unlikely that Titus was bussed, based on the multiball setup, so looking for his teammate off his wagon seems quite reasonable. It could also be the BJC/Unsight slot. Unsight will need to work very hard to rehabilitate that slot.

Also, because missing important setup details is apparently my thing lately, I just noticed that the mafia sample PM does not include a factional kill. So it is not, in fact, noteworthy that there was only one kill. We know that there should only have been one.

The question is, is it better strategy to pursue the werewolves first, or the mafia first? On the one hand, werewolves have a kill, on the other, we have a seer to track them down.

At the moment, I'm leaning towards werewolves.

VOTE: Bulge

[Paschendale]

PS:

bjc was town as fuck and his reads were super good.

He had ShadedMelee, Bulge, Pasch picked out super fast. If all 3 flip scum then the town owes him a ton for the upcoming win.

[Paschendale]

This could be a werewolf slip. I have trouble seeing Paschendale make this mistake if he is really town.

This might be a genuine not-mafia tell. Only problem is that I've seen mafia try this before.

I genuinely just forgot. I've had a rather busy week and was distracted. It's RL stuff, not game stuff. I'd rather be right than look innocent for bad reasons.

This reaction feels off. Trying to understand if you are town. If Shaded was scum and you suspect Bulge enough to vote him, why is it laughworthy that bjc would get credit for 2/3?

Because his justifications were terrible and he did nothing to sell those reads. I don't give credit for random guesses if you don't actually help lynch scum. I consider his replacing out null, though.

[Paschendale]

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?

Your slot does.

[Paschendale]

1) If Bulge is Wolf 1, who looks good as Wolf 2?

Your slot does.

Reasons?

He had a running feud with bjc ( you can see it in 232 and 233 ). Probably doesn't help that my 3rd post in the game was to out him as scum, but I've always had trouble making friends.

Trying to play it off as an emotional reaction is a pretty sad attempt to misrep what's happened. BJC was uncooperative and didn't contribute to scumhunting at all. Since your arrival, you've placed uncontroversial and opportunistic votes, attacked me for calling out your predecessor's anti-town play, and supplied crappy reasons for your suspicions. There was no feud. I saw scummy play and noted it. I still see it and am still noting it. Your Bulge vote and conjecture about SNS is likewise weak.

[Paschendale]

It's so cute when they accuse me of being scum simply because I'm being mean to them. Keep one thing in mind, mafia will likely have a much harder time winning without WWs around doing night kills, and I was one of the first to push this game in the WW-killing direction. My play is wholly inconsistent with what mafia's priorities ought to be.

I would be very surprised if Bulge does not flip WW. If he doesn't, then Bins almost certainly will. I stand by my conclusions from the beginning of the day. I think they're spot on. The BJC/Unsight slot is probably mafia. That would explain BJC's play and the attempts to frame me. Unsight's persistence looks like a deliberate attempt to push an incorrect read, rather than an honest mistake.

[Paschendale]

It actually might be harder for the mafia to win with the werewolves since it has been mention, they need to have almost all the mafia killed off to win.

If the werewolves all die, then scum have to win entirely on mislynches. That's very very very hard. Not likely to lead to a win. Scum vs town with no night kills will almost always lead to a town win. That's why scum with night kills is standard. Killing off the werewolves as fast as possible is good for town and bad for everyone else.

That read is kind of odd, Pasch. Unsight looks way more WW than mafia.

You should explain this conclusion.

Paschendale, you said you would be "very surprised" if Bulge was not werewolf. 1. Why do you think he is scum? 2. Why do you think he is werewolf as opposed to mafia?

I discussed my scumread on him on day 1, and then considered abandoning them based on our day 1 lynch. They hopped on the wagon to kill a mafia but didn't look like they were bussing. I had forgotten about the WW faction, so it is reasonable that they could be part of that faction. They read, independently of each other, strongly, as not town. So, not town, probably not mafia... probably WW's! I would be very surprised if I were wrong about this conclusion. It seems sound to me.

[Paschendale]

Fucked up quote tags. See this post for fixed ones.

It actually might be harder for the mafia to win with the werewolves since it has been mention, they need to have almost all the mafia killed off to win.

If the werewolves all die, then scum have to win entirely on mislynches. That's very very very hard. Not likely to lead to a win. Scum vs town with no night kills will almost always lead to a town win. That's why scum with night kills is standard. Killing off the werewolves as fast as possible is good for town and bad for everyone else.

That read is kind of odd, Pasch. Unsight looks way more WW than mafia.

You should explain this conclusion.

Paschendale, you said you would be "very surprised" if Bulge was not werewolf. 1. Why do you think he is scum? 2. Why do you think he is werewolf as opposed to mafia?

I discussed my scumread on him and Bins on day 1, and then considered abandoning them based on our day 1 lynch. They hopped on the wagon to kill a mafia but didn't look like they were bussing. I had forgotten about the WW faction, so it is reasonable that they could be part of that faction. They read, independently of each other, strongly, as not town. So, not town, probably not mafia... probably WW's! I would be very surprised if I were wrong about this conclusion. It seems sound to me. I am as certain as a person can be that at least one of Bulge and Bins is a werewolf.

[Paschendale]

Again with the voting Mafia reads over WW reads.

Who are you talking about here?

[Paschendale]

I'm saying it's a shit lynch because there's no good argument for it that I can see and everyone's still acting like Bulge is conf scum. Lynch Bulge, NM, go ahead, I'm not attempting to defend against the wagon, I just don't want to be a part of it.

And I don't see Desp scum for reasons that he voted Splash vs Shaded. I don't think he'd just not bus his partner in that situation.

His votes were for poor and unfounded reasons. His contributions have not helped find scum at all and his day 1 play, especially his vote, looked like trying to fly under the radar. The last two votes on day 1, that being his and yours, both looked like this. They had all the trappings of votes cast by people who know exactly the outcome that a lynch will have (or at very least, know that it won't be their team). I can see why you're defending Bulge, since everything that implicates him also implicates you, but his general play has been worse, so he's on the block today instead of you.

Are you his teammate or are you just defending yourself by proxy?

[Paschendale]

@Wicked: As much as you don't like the votes on Bulge based on the claim accusation, you haven't really ever addressed my case on him. He almost exclusively defends himself, doesn't contribute to finding scum, and his vote on Titus did not look like one where the outcome was unknown. That wasn't a compromise vote. That wasn't a vote he genuinely believed in. That was a vote that was cast against a known enemy.

[Paschendale]

Are you saying everyone else on the Titus wagon wasn't sure of their vote? Sounds like a pretty awful wagon to me.

Town players are never sure of their votes. Not without cop results or the like. Town players always know that they could be wrong.

Bulge is responding to these in full, no excuses. Wicked as well if his V/LA permits but I'm not going to push it for obvious reasons.

You may notice that neither of those posts are addressed to Bulge, but no, he really hasn't addressed any of it. He's just expressed ignorance of why the rest of us think he's a werewolf. He makes quips to avoid my conclusions about his vote on Titus. Almost everything he's saying is about the seer claim, not about why his day 1 activities didn't consist of any real scumhunting or why he voted Titus at all. Seriously, read his ISO. Find me one post that is useful in determining anyone's alignment. Find me one post where he suspects Titus' slot at all. Bulge isn't responding to anything except to say "nuh uh!" Why do you find that compelling?

[Paschendale]

EBWOP718- Paschendale, I don't think it's suspicious that Bulge never expressed suspicion of Titus. Rereading his Titus vote, it looked like a NL prevention vote - I was perfectly fine with it.

I don't think it did at all. And I have no idea what scumhunting you're seeing. I've looked over his ISO twice today and see nothing of value in finding scum or werewolves. Especially day 1. He's been under attack day 2, so it's more expected that he just defends himself, but on day 1, there was nothing.

[Paschendale]

EBWOP718- Paschendale, I don't think it's suspicious that Bulge never expressed suspicion of Titus. Rereading his Titus vote, it looked like a NL prevention vote - I was perfectly fine with it.

1... I don't think it did at all. 2... And I have no idea what scumhunting you're seeing. 3... I've looked over his ISO twice today and see nothing of value in finding scum or werewolves. Especially day 1. 4... He's been under attack day 2, so it's more expected that he just defends himself, but on day 1, there was nothing.

1. Bulge said and I quote, "I realize my N_M vote is useless right now. I'm not sure how town-motivated the Titus wagon is, but it doesn't look like the lynch is going anywhere else today and a No Lynch would be unfortunate." That sounds like no lynch prevention, not sure how you disagree.
2. He's asked questions, voted, moved his vote around, posted thoughts, etc.
3. I'll admit his contributions aren't the greatest but it's enough for me. There are three (just thought of another) players that have contributed less so I'm surprised you are giving him a hard time for this.
4. Pretty sure he was busy with school or something, but idk.

1. That looked like an excuse.
2. He made noise. That's hardly the same as useful content.
3. I'm "giving him a hard time" because there's a difference between being lurky and being disingenuous. The latter is how you find scum. You don't just lynch based on post count, and that sounds like what you're suggesting I'm doing.
4. Again, this is about quality, not quantity. This is about his choices.

[Paschendale]

Most of my reasons for suspecting Bulge also applied to Bins. We'll see how that woks after a reread.

[Paschendale]

Well, maybe I'll actually get to contribute something. I'll reread and post some thoughts this evening.

[Paschendale]

Pasch's thoughts:

-Shaded/Titus Slot-

Shaded basically did nothing. His vote on me was based on my conflict with BJC, which now looks very much like BJC was simply attacking his detractors.

Titus, meanwhile, called me obvious scum, but lightly defended Maruchan. Then he turns on that slot as soon as Splashcloud replaces in. Titus calls him obvious scum as well. It doesn't seem like Titus went in for a lot of subtlety, so it is very likely that what is now Klick's slot is not mafia. Then he focuses on Fuzzy. This again doesn't look like faked interaction. Fuzzy is unlikely mafia.

@N_M and Riddleton: Why are you two so convinced that Fuzzy is mafia? Do you think he and Titus were faking their interaction? Could Fuzzy be a WW instead?

-Day 2 lynch-

A significant portion of this wagon has flipped. The last vote was town, and before that was a WW. I obviously know my own alignment, and piecing together the motivations of the first three votes is a bit trickier. What interests me is the counterwagon.

Desperado had on him a townie, the seer, and Bins. Is this Bins casting a vote on a buddy that is unlikely to go a lynch? Actually, probably not. It doesn't look like it. Rethinking WW read on Bins.

-Desperado Slot-

Desperado went hard on the Bulge wagon. In fact, up until his claim, he basically had no reads on anyone besides Bulge. Damn, that was useless. Of interest, however, is his final shot. Was it an attempt to falsely clear Bins, or did he genuinely think that she was the seer? How does she end up in the middle of so much controversy?

-Fuzzy Slot-

Initial list contains scum vibe on seer and scumread on Desperado. The others are less interesting. Fuzzy's early suspicions, especially of me, look genuine. His reasons for voting Bulge so strongly early on match a lot of other players, but they weren't bad reasons. That scum are scumhunting too makes truly false reads somewhat rare, and likely only strongly concentrated around protecting teammates.

I really don't see scum in Fuzzy's posts. The case definitely remains to be made. He shares his thoughts, and even his reads that have been proven wrong look genuine and well formed. But then again, a lot of them ARE wrong. Town often mislynch. I don't see why scum hunting werewolves or werewolves hunting scum would be any different. There is almost a balanced tone about Fuzzy, like he's trying intentionally to be as moderate as possible. He didn't come down hard on the Desperado/Wicked issue, and so could be protecting Desperado. It's not a great case, but it's possible. Fuzzy could be a ww.

I do not think that Fuzzy or Klick are mafia.

-Bins Slot-

Ah, my old friend Bins. Not in the sense that we've played together before. More in the sense that I've been trying to get her lynched the whole game.

I've written and erased this section several times. I've found her to be town, mafia, and werewolf. I really don't know what to make of her play at all. The lack of a townread with so much content really makes me think that she's scum in some way, but I honestly do not know which team she's playing for. With so many options, I don't want to lynch her today.

These are some thoughts. I definitely want to hear why people suspect Fuzzy so strongly.

[Paschendale]

Just because I'm not in the mood for being cheeky:

Vote: Desperado

I'm the seer, you are not.

-fuzzy is not a werewolf.
-Unsight is not a werewolf.

Good to know. That was my first thought when you said he definitely wasn't, that it had been from Wicked's results. I just didn't remember what they were since that whole day happened without me.

------------

I definitely don't want to no lynch, just because I'd rather have a say in the outcome of the game and not leave it up to night kills. Besides, 50/50 is pretty good odds. I say use them while we can. Not that we're going to make a random, uninformed choice.

I'm torn about trying to target ww or mafia, though. No ww means no night kill, means town just has to lynch the scum to win. But it means we'll have to do it perfectly. Killing a mafia means the ww kill can still swing the game. I'm less inclined to let that happen.

Now, Riddleton, why the fuck won't you actually make a case for Fuzzy, and if you continue not to, why shouldn't we lynch you?

[Paschendale]

I'll paste it here too

Fuzzybutternut

-Voted for 5 different people over the course of the two days we're at.
-Has said many other people are scummy as well, such as wicked & me (sns). Do you have any town reads or is everyone acting scummy to you?
-Said I (sns) was town quite a lot through the game but flipped D2 and said "I was probscum, but not convinced" (#562)
-Did not vote Shaded/Titus D1. Says "Sns, let's lynch Shaded tomorrow, yes?" (#384) but does not follow through. Why?
-Verdict: Scummy (mafia).

That is not very compelling. 5 votes is hardly unusual. In fact, having views on lots of players is a good thing. Lots of votes is more indicative of a game that has had a decent number of wagons, and a player parking their vote is actually anti-town, as it makes it much harder to read someone. Likewise, having lots of reads and criticizing a lot of people is helpful to town. Nor is anyone obligated to keep the same reads. Reads should evolve. I've spent most of the game trying to lynch Bins and now am opposed to doing that. Am I scum?

The only thing left is the slightly fishy end of day 1. Otherwise, this is not much of a case.

[Paschendale]

I honestly have no idea why Desperado fakeclaimed. There wasn't much focus on him during day 2. I also don't really feel comfortable trying to suss out his fake claims about his results.

[Paschendale]

He was the counter wagon day 2.

It wasn't much of one. Maybe he thought it was more likely to reach a lynch than I did.

[Paschendale]

I'm gonna do the prod dodge thing for the moment. I'll be on a train all day tomorrow, so I'll do some more serious analysis on Friday.

I'm intrigued by the Not_Mafia case, and will give him a complete reread. The Fuzzy case is shit.

[Paschendale]

VOTE: Not_mafia

Given the care necessitated by the precarious position town finds itself in, his cavalier attitude makes it very difficult for me to see him as town.

[Paschendale]

Wow this game has ground to a halt...

[Paschendale]

Just keep digging, NM.

[Paschendale]

Upon a reread of NM's ISO, I have no difficulty seeing him as Desperado's partner. The wagons he supported, the way he supported them, the votes and pushes he ignored, his responses to Desperado, and his actions today all point towards werewolf.

[Paschendale]

Bins town
Pasch prob town but if scum is wolf
Riddleton scum
Fuzzy Mafia
klick/splashcloud who knows

Pretty much this except NM is a werewolf and Fuzzy is town. But by PoE, that makes the Klick slot the last mafia.

[Paschendale]

The riddler

Wrong! We're lynching you.

[Paschendale]

Bins does look scummy early on, Aegor, but it's faded over time and she's definitely not the scummiest looking right now.

[Paschendale]

Okay, cool. Aegor is claiming scum. Awesome.

[Paschendale]

Aegor and then Riddleton are my suspects.

[Paschendale]

Where are the reasons? :/

how are you guys so ready to lynch

I find you and Fuzzy towny. I don't find Aegor and Riddleton towny.

[Paschendale]

Bins and I, the rather uncontested town, should probably vote last, after everyone else. That way there can't be a coordinated quicklynch. Since two out of the three other players are scum, there can't be an opportunity for a quicklynch unless someone votes for themself. Not seeing that happen.

[Paschendale]

Aegor, why are you trying to convince Fuzzy and not myself or Bins?

[Paschendale]

It's some nitpicks and arguments, not a case. It ended up being "I read the whole game at once, so trust my reads". Which does nothing to convince anyone that he's not simply lying.

[Paschendale]

cghjkl.

It's interesting how Pasch thought he was uncontested town then. But like, if I had to go with gut right now - which is awful because it's lylo, I'd have smacked a vote down on Riddleton already.

I'm uncontested by the other town players. Likewise, I'm pretty okay with lynching Riddleton today. Then it'll be 3v1 and we'll lynch Aegor tomorrow and win. I'm gonna reread Riddle's ISO and make sure.

[Paschendale]

You weren't at risk of getting NK'd by NM, neither was Riddleton. He probably would have gone with Fuzzy, but I can't say that for sure. Which is why it makes sense that you would be okay with lynching someone who definitely not a WW.

Which I was. But by that same reasoning, those players who were

particularly

intent on lynching the WW should also be scrutinized.

Except, you know, it was the best course of action for town.

[Paschendale]

Only if we were more sure about the WW than the mafia.

Uhh, town can't be certain of anything. If you're town, you're basically guessing. NM was the most likely candidate for being a wolf, that's why he was lynched. No matter which way you look at it, lynching WW was, and will always be, more important to town in that situation.

Please, informed guesses.

[Paschendale]

We weren't "10%" sure. We were pretty damn sure. But you're trying to make it look like a reasonable wagon to oppose because it was beneficial to mafia to oppose it.

Riddleton's absence likewise has me worried.

[Paschendale]

Okay, so what little doubt I had before is completely gone. Aegor and Riddleton. 100%

[Paschendale]

No, I've found you unsettling and dishonest the whole game. You were just never my first choice.

But since we're talking about cases without evidence... you haven't said what supposedly makes me and Fuzzy "obvious" as scum. Kinda sad when your only only defense also condemns you.

PeEdit: You do realize that we're lynching Aegor today, right?

[Paschendale]

Aegor is fucking town. What part of that don't you get?

The part where you make any effort to prove that.

I'm not throwing down votes in LYLO. Too risky.

You're voting before Bins and I do.

I'm certain of you and pasch's alignment therefpre aegor and bins are town.

Certainty you have made no effort to prove to anyone else.

fuzzy, scum had time to hammer you yesterday and today. For that reason, one of you is probably scum. After Riddleton's recent reappearance and preemptive aggression, I am less certain of anything than I was before.

Yeah, Riddleton is. He's your partner.

I never said it was certain; I only said it was probable. I cannot speak for the scum in this game, but I tend to notify my buddies of my availability as the game draws on.

Scum don't have daychat. I think you can speak for the scum in this game and you are trying to tell your partner something here.

[Paschendale]

Scum have night chat. I already told you that I habitually discuss quickhammer timing with my partners in my night QT. Are you saying that I forgot to do what I just said I always do, and am now trying to coordinate a quickhammer time publicly?

Also, why would I attempt to schedule a quickhammer with my alleged partner, who is also the only one voting? None of that makes any sense.

Why am I even responding to assertions with no basis? Why am I asking so many questions?

You didn't do that when we were scum partners.

[Paschendale]

The first game I played with you. You didn't coordinate on anywhere near that level.

[Paschendale]

This was only a few months ago.

[Paschendale]

No, I can't find it. I'm not sure why, but when I look at "my topics", a lot of my games don't show up. I don't remember what the name of the game was, but Aegor replaced in early on, and my partner had been really derelict and generally a liability. He played better, but there was very little coordination of any kind. This is only to impeach his contention of "always". Maybe he played that game differently. I don't know.

This is actually not that important. The point is, Aegor's attempts to say "I'm not scum because scum would do ______" are lame. Self meta arguments are weak, and speculating about what scum would or would not do is pointless. He's been argumentative and contrary since he joined without contributing anything of use.

Looking back, Splashcloud's only real contribution was to try to push pressure away from SNS (now Riddleton), which definitely suggests that the could be partners. Klick did nothing. Maruchan went for the easy wagons and took no risks at all. There is very little reason to townread this slot.

[Paschendale]

And this is coming out in lylo? Talk about convenient.

You only brought up your self meta here during lylo. Or do you mean the points I just made about your slot? Those have all been made before. I'm just summarizing.

Maybe you should just vote me, given how certain you are.

All in good time.

You're scumreading someone based on how some lazy people (OK, I fall into this crowd too, but at leaswt I'm admitting it) contributed in the game.

I'd be disappointed if you weren't protecting your buddy here.

Pasch, vote me.

After we hear from Bins.

[Paschendale]

I doubt that either of my teammates are going to fall for your line, Aegor. The game is basically over. We just need to decide if we're lynching you or Riddleton first.

[Paschendale]

I should have elaborated more before hitting submit... My decision for the towniest players to vote last was specifically to avoid a quickhammer. Of course, only the scum disagree with that notion. My summary of the play of your slot isn't any kind of retroactive justification. It was a fresh description of your slot's play after a re-read. Likewise the accusation of tunneling is nonsense. If you go back and look, I've chased half a dozen suspects during the game. And, of course, tunneling isn't really much of a scumtell. If someone does it because they can't fabricate genuine reads on lots of players, it can be. But most of the time it's a townie with a theory and a lot of confirmation bias. I had that with Bulge. I was wrong. I've been right about almost everything else, though. I spent more time diffusing mislynches than supporting them, and hunted werewolves like it was my job.

My alignment is obvious from my play. Even you know how obvious it is, which is why you're forced to rely on such lame accusations.

[Paschendale]

Riddleton is scum because he's been playing very defensively. His objective has been to survive. He's avoided going on a limb at any point during the game. Likewise, in 600 posts, his reads haven't changed. He's calling the same people scum and the same people town as he was at the beginning of day 2. There's been no evolution of reads. No new information that has apparently penetrated his mind. Not to mention, of his three scumreads during this game, one was Bulge who was universally scumread and lynched with no help at all from Riddleton, but the other and me and Fuzzy. Before today, he has expended barely any effort to get us lynched. We're still here, alive and well, and scumhunting. He can't manage to make a compelling case. His tactics are indicative of a long game survival strategy, which is what scum has to do in this setup.

@Bins: I feel entirely comfortable voting for a Riddleton/Aegor scumteam. You've read my reasons. Do you want to discuss anything? Are you ready to vote? Which one do you feel more strongly about?

[Paschendale]

What do you still want to discuss, Bins, before you're comfortable voting? Or do you just want me to vote first?

[Paschendale]

I'm quite certain enough for Aegor and Riddleton to vote for either one today. They're both scum. So we lynch one today and one tomorrow. If you want to do Riddleton first, we'll do Riddleton first.

[Paschendale]

Let's end this.

VOTE: Riddleton

Kill us a scum, Bins!

[Paschendale]

pasch you are the worst villager ever

Don't play like scum and you won't get lynched for one.

Bins you really get MVP for this game. You started out so far in the hole and brought it around. You overcame pretty much every part of my early scumread on you.