Open 563 - Jungle Republic (Night 5~)

[Riddleton]

I would rather lynch fuzzy as he is my strongest read. I am also prepared to lynch The Bulge as well.

[Bins]

I think Fuzzy is mafia but would rather lynch a WW at this moment.

[Bins]

I'm still leaning Bulge, but I'm trying to see who his partner would be.

Unsight, you asked this before. Who do you think Bulge's partner is?

[Unsight]

I'm still leaning Bulge, but I'm trying to see who his partner would be.

Unsight, you asked this before. Who do you think Bulge's partner is?

Let's go down the line. We'll ignore Pasch/fuzzy since they're mafia.

Not_Mafia

- Battled Bulge for part of Day 1. Voted Pasch while agreeing with fuzzy's vote on Bulge, but explained it well in Post 264. It stands out to me that he and Bulge had a back and forth that resulted in Bulge voting him but not the reverse. I'm very much used to people coming down on me when I call them scum so it's kind of weird. I like his play otherwise though.

Splashcloud / maruchan

- Jumped on the Bulge wagon very late. WIFOM be damned, 99 times out of 100 scum don't do that. Especially Day 1 when they're under 0 pressure. If Bulge flips scum then this slot looks really clean. If Bulge flips town then it goes the other way real fast.

Bins

- You weren't on the big Bulge wagon. You noted Bulge was posting in other threads and then voted him here. I think if Bulge flips town, that looks bad for you. If Bulge flips scum then it's cool.

Wickedestjr

- Never voted Bulge. Ever. Very defensive as a player which is a light scum tell for me. His reads seem similar to mine on fuzzy/pasch, but he uses more words and says it more politely than I do. I don't feel like he's put the same level of effort into wolf hunting as he's put into mafia hunting ( granted the mafia were pretty easy to spot ). May be scummy or may just be my intense hatred of reading walls of text.

Desperado

- I don't see Desperado being Wolf #2 to a Bulge Wolf #1.

Riddleton / snscompt1

- The only thing that gets me is that wagon hop. I think if Bulge flips town then this slot is town is town as well. I don't know that the reverse is necessarily true.

Too many maybe and results pending Bulge flip for me.

What do you think?

[Riddleton]

but would rather lynch a WW at this moment.

Alright, we can lynch a WW today (Bulge). I'm pretty certain Bulge will flip scum now that I reread his ISO.

VOTE: Bulge

[Unsight]

3. Werewolves win when they comprise half the town and at least one pro-town player remains. If werewolves comprise one half and mafia comprise the other half, then mafia wins. That makes mafia more threatening to the werewolves, because they currently CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill a mafia goon. If werewolves lose a member then they CANNOT win unless they lynch or kill both mafia goons.

This is the greatest thing ever.

I feel like I just had an epiphany.

The Werewolves are gonna kill the mafia for us. All we need to do as a town is say "We're not lynching Pasch/Fuzzy." The instant we say that, the Werewolves cannot win this game without wasting two night kills on them.

[Not_Mafia]

The wolves mafia hunt in this most nights anyway depending on the numbers, that's nothing revolutionary. And leaving mafia in the game for the sake of it leads to murky endgame situations where we have to lynch a particular faction or lose.

Wolf lynch is still optimal today though, and this is our best candidate, would be too much wifom moving forward regardless.

VOTE: The Bulge

L-1

[The Bulge]

1) I never fucking softclaimed seer.
2) I have asked the same question at least 3 times with no answer from everyone.

Why am I werewolf.

3) Almost ALL of today's analysis has been "If The Bulge flips WW, then..." Alright, but there had better be a backup plan, because when I flip town this entire day will have been a waste with no information learned.

[Mist7676]

Vote Count:

The Bulge

(5) - Not_Mafia, Riddleton, Paschendale, Desperado, Unsight

Unsight

(1) - fuzzybutternut

(expired on 2014-08-16 05:25:27)

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch

[The Bulge]

VOTE: Desperado
Maybe this will catch your attention. Come give me a god damn explanation.

[Bins]

this wagon is giving me the creeps

[Bins]

like i think bulge is a ww, i always have, but i didn't think this wagon would go down with no resistance.

[Not_Mafia]

Would you risk being linked to him by resisting the inevitable lynch if you were his partner? None of the factions have any incentive to resist this lynch

[Wickedestjr]

I don't like this bandwagon. I briefly searched (for like two minutes) for reasons, but the only ones I can find or remember are "his mindless sheeping vote on Paschendale" which wasn't mindless sheeping and his "town seer crumb" which pretty obviously wasn't a crumb. The "I can guarantee I'm town" comment actually seemed townish imo and it was clearly worded in a similar manner to that which it was a response to - it's not like his use of the phrase "I'm town" was irrelevant or forced. fuzzy said he could 'almost guarantee' that Pasch was town and Bulge responded with 'I can guarantee that I am', not understanding the confusion there.

I don't have a strong read on Bulge either way, but if I had to guess right now I'd say he's town.

Can somebody please unvote at least temporarily? Not comfortable having him at L-1 right now and we still have six days left. More posts to come, it's been very slow going and I apologize for that, but I have been focusing on this game.

[Wickedestjr]

-Makes a huge case against fuzzy (#564) but says in the next post "I don't want to lynch [Fuzzy] today". Any reason why? Remember - we need to kill both scum teams so there's no point leaving one person alive if you are certain they are acting scummy.

When I said "I don't want to lynch fuzzy today" I meant that he wasn't my top choice, there are people that I'd rather lynch- my werewolf suspects. He's the only person that I have seen a mafia-tell from (rather than a general scum tell), so that's why he's not one of my top choices. If he is mafia, then his lynch is third best and I would support it to save someone that I think is town, but only for that reason. It's not like I would do everything I can to prevent fuzzy's lynch, just not the best choice in my opinion.

1.

Never voted Bulge. Ever.

2.

Very defensive as a player which is a light scum tell for me.

3.

His reads seem similar to mine on fuzzy/pasch, but he uses more words and says it more politely than I do.

4.

I don't feel like he's put the same level of effort into wolf hunting as he's put into mafia hunting ( granted the mafia were pretty easy to spot ). May be scummy or may just be my intense hatred of reading walls of text.

1. Never voted him yet and don't intend to. Haven't seen a single good point against him.
2. I get that a lot. I might actually put that in my sig once my ongoing games are all over.
3. Thanks?
4. Actually, ever since I made that fuzzy post, all my effort has been focused on catching wolves. It's just been slow going because I've been busy and for whatever reason I'm having trouble finding the tells that I'm looking for. I made the fuzzy post because it looked like there was a good chance of his lynch happening, and I didn't particularly like that - plus if I die, I want my case out there for future town consideration.

[Desperado]

Bulge responded with 'I can guarantee that I am', not understanding the confusion there.

The confusion is that Bulge could only "guarantee" that he's town by claiming Seer and that he performed this open ended softclaim as he was getting rung up.

Him going back on it now and claiming VT is literally a scum claim.

You should vote him.

[Desperado]

Unvote

Do what you need to do but we're lynching Bulge today.

[Wickedestjr]

The confusion is that Bulge could only "guarantee" that he's town by claiming Seer and that he performed this open ended softclaim as he was getting rung up.

But Bulge's "guarantee" comment was in response to fuzzy's "I can almost guarantee that Pasch is town" and fuzzy probably wasn't talking about the seer there. If Bulge is town, then he CAN guarantee that he's town because he'd have a role pm telling him he is.

Unvote

Do what you need to do but we're lynching Bulge today.

Thanks.

[Wickedestjr]

EBWOP: Even if Bulge flipped scum, I wouldn't believe that he was trying to crumb there unless he admitted it after game. Lynches based on 'crumbs' rarely/never turn out well in my experience.

[Desperado]

If Bulge is town, then he CAN guarantee that he's town because he'd have a role pm telling him he is.

He can't guarantee that to us from our POV without claiming seer, which is what I think that post was implying. Especially given the context.

Pedit: Fair enough.

[Paschendale]

It's so cute when they accuse me of being scum simply because I'm being mean to them. Keep one thing in mind, mafia will likely have a much harder time winning without WWs around doing night kills, and I was one of the first to push this game in the WW-killing direction. My play is wholly inconsistent with what mafia's priorities ought to be.

I would be very surprised if Bulge does not flip WW. If he doesn't, then Bins almost certainly will. I stand by my conclusions from the beginning of the day. I think they're spot on. The BJC/Unsight slot is probably mafia. That would explain BJC's play and the attempts to frame me. Unsight's persistence looks like a deliberate attempt to push an incorrect read, rather than an honest mistake.

[Splashcloud]

It's so cute when they accuse me of being scum simply because I'm being mean to them. Keep one thing in mind, mafia will likely have a much harder time winning without WWs around doing night kills, and I was one of the first to push this game in the WW-killing direction. My play is wholly inconsistent with what mafia's priorities ought to be.

I would be very surprised if Bulge does not flip WW. If he doesn't, then Bins almost certainly will. I stand by my conclusions from the beginning of the day. I think they're spot on. The BJC/Unsight slot is probably mafia. That would explain BJC's play and the attempts to frame me. Unsight's persistence looks like a deliberate attempt to push an incorrect read, rather than an honest mistake.

It actually might be harder for the mafia to win with the werewolves since it has been mention, they need to have almost all the mafia killed off to win.

this wagon is giving me the creeps

Don't you want Bulge to be lynched? Why is it creeping you out?

[Bins]

That read is kind of odd, Pasch. Unsight looks way more WW than mafia.

Because there was no good reasoning behind the votes. It was like "oh? Bulge wagon? Seems good to me." Like Bulge said, everyone is already assuming he's WW. I think the main reason I'd want his lynch now is for his flip and that's not a strong enough reason for me.

[Bins]

I know I was on the Bulge wagon, but that response looks pretty genuine. And I know Desp didn't believe it, maybe I'm gullible or something, but it looked good to me.

[Bins]

Oops, I should have directed comments. Hopefully you all figure it out.