Mini 1604 -- Zodiac Mafia (Game Over)

[Iecerint]

VOTE: Juls

Our genders are opposed, so we have best compatibility in FFT. Maybe I'll do bonus damage. ^^

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Kill Iecerint

Rude. :[

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Unvote; Vote: Witness Protection

Xayzeck is town.

I have been operating under the assumption that Juls's daykill is false, though I had already noticed the "fortunate" event. I do not think Juls would use an actual daykill that poorly. If it does end up being real, I suppose it increases the chance that she is scum, since her having the daykill is just random and has no balance considerations, but scum need an excuse to use the daykill in a hard-to-scrutinize way, but I can understand my first post being a way to justify that (e.g., because overexplained RVS votes are scummy, but in my case I think about FFT whenever I see Zodiac stuff so it's a unique situation). So in other words there is at least some way to account for it if she's scum maybe.

I was going to say that Elyse was unnatural for disliking my "reaction," but then also voting for Xayzeck for voting me subsequent to it, but I realize while in the process of re-quoting her that it was Xayzeck that she thought was unnatural, so nevermind there.

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It is not random. Xayzeck had one of the better RVS votes and WP voted him for it. Scummy. Also, weird combination of friendly and confrontational. It's unsettling to read.

I went back and reread it after reading Peregrine's post.

I should say that I am assuming that Xayzeck's vote was not random. But even if it wasn't, there's no reason for WP to assume that, and his reaction is even more inappropriate if he infers that it was random, anyway, so.

Also this scenario played out differently than I expected it to in a somewhat recent game I think, so i am grain-of-salting it. But idk maybe a year or two ago I would be pretty confident about it.

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I thought his reaction was OTT and weird.

Is that alignment indicative?

What are you trying to accomplish with this question?

You may wait for Elyse to respond I guess.

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You may wait for Elyse to respond I guess.

Gracious of you.

I am such a man.

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Also, uhh, nevermind I guess. My complaint was going to be that she obviously thought it was alignment indicative because she wouldn't vote him otherwise.

Different strokes!

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I think it was more like flirting.

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The dayvig should probably claim responsibility for their dayvig after they use it rather than before just in case scum can interfere with it in some way.

The most pro-town way to use a dayvig (other than killing claimed/proven scum) is to use it to grant the town an extra lynch. This means using it on someone who's at L-1 after people have weighed in. Just FYI at any town dayvig who is contemplating how to use it.

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Further discussion about the dayvig will probably provide unnecessary information about the identity of the dayvig, so there is no reason for it to continue.

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since her having the daykill is just random and has no balance considerations, but scum need an excuse to use the daykill in a hard-to-scrutinize way

And shooting instantly is hard to scrutinize? Because I can think of a thousand things wrong with the shot if real and I'd be surprised if no one else could.

I literally explain that she is more likely to be scum if it is real later in this post.

The dayvig should probably claim responsibility for their dayvig after they use it rather than before just in case scum can interfere with it in some way.

What do you imagine scum can do to a dayvig?[/quote]
Maybe a dayblock? Maybe a daykill? Who the hell knows? Who cares?

The benefit of claiming after you use the dayvig is that it can't be tampered with. The disadvantage relative to claiming early is none unless there's something I'm not creative enough to imagine.

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Quote tags messed up for the second one there.

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Anywho...I agree with Nachomamma. If the day vig does not occur today then we must assume scum owns it. In fact, I suggest we put someone at L-1 and then force everyone to do exactly what I did

Kill: Soinso

to flush it out before the end of the day. You don't have to be swayed by "town" but you gotta shoot. Agreed? Good.

This is a good plan.

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Yeah, Burn's post is pretty bad.

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I had actually inferred that it was the second one, on the grounds that it forces scum to use the dayvig in a pro-town manner.

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It doesn't really matter if we know how the vig was really. It's not as if alignment affects who got the vig (as far as we know), and I'm sure town will claim it after the fact either way.

w/e tho.

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Why is there a Witness Protection wagon again?

I'm voting him for his vote for Xayzeck.

Which. That's his whole iso.

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Salamence, what type/manner of "connection" are you referring to?

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Salamence, what type/manner of "connection" are you referring to?

I'm asking about the "connection" you alluded to between me and Juls.

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That was because I RVS'd her.

My point is, like, is there any substance or inference in what you are saying? What is your point?

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I find Toasty's posts poor and decisions anti-town.

Waiting for the mod to post I suppose, as that's relevant to interpreting the situation right now.

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You should probably spell it out for people who aren't good at critical thinking.

That is, that it's the same as a not-dayvig claim.

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Happy with my vote on WP=TT.

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Iecerint what's your view on the Salamence wagon? You've kind of ignored it to this point.

burn are you happy with your vote on Juls?

I viewed it as a less-good WP wagon. Now I view it as a wagon I was never super crazy about that Toasty joined.

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Iecerint what's your view on the Salamence wagon? You've kind of ignored it to this point.

burn are you happy with your vote on Juls?

I viewed it as a less-good WP wagon. Now I view it as a wagon I was never super crazy about that Toasty joined.

So do you have any other reads in this game? So far I've seen ToastyToast scum and Xayzeck town. That's it.

Yep, those are the main reads that are strong enough for me to remember after not looking at the game for a few days.

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And now that I've caught up, that's about all I have to say on the topic. D:

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Why do you have such a problem with people townreading me?

How do you deduce that Xayzeck has a problem with people townreading you? He responded to this with a reasonable question and you blew him off.

Scummy post.

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In what way? You can't just call an arbitrary post scummy.

1. "Arbitrary post"?

2. Your post is a question that is purely rhetorical; it is designed to discredit Elyse and win townpoints with Xayzeck rather than to learn alignments.

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Xayzeck is town, though, so it's not troubling if he does scummy things until he's done like 10 of them.

/drunkpost

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Xayzeck is town, though, so it's not troubling if he does scummy things until he's done like 10 of them.

How is that relevant to your attack on me? I think Xayzeck is town as well.

Caught for the wrong reasons.

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@ Elyse -- I am not sure what Nacho's alignment is, but I would not entertain lynching him today simply on the basis of his activity.

I don't think it's particularly alarming that he has a scumread on me, if that's why you're asking me in particular. I've been kinda lurky in this game of late. I dunno if this is really a reliable scumtell for me, but I don't expect people to townread me particularly.

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I didn't see that before.

I don't really understand what you find objectionable about the daykill stuff. I basically said that it was probably a fake daykill, but Juls was scum if it somehow wasn't a fake daykill. It was reasonable to point that out when I did because I would be dead in the unlikely event that it was a real daykill.

WP's one post was really bad while being a reach for a content-y vote (a compound scumpost) and nothing else in the game grabbed me enough to make me change my vote. I haven't really encouraged others to vote for him because he only had 1 post and I don't see it productive to keep others who aren't on-board from using their votes in productive ways that might help me notice other things about the game.

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The why is that town Juls would never daykill me on page 1 because she is not an idiot. It's not rocket science.

What makes you think I find Elyse scummy? I actually found Elyse town prior to her fingering me, and I don't think (???) I've commented on any changed opinion in that regard. Also, I suspect the difference since that point is mostly related to her fingering me.

Toasty has done nothing to change my opinion about his slot and is not a non-player, so I see no reason to change my vote.

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The why is that town Juls would never daykill me on page 1 because she is not an idiot. It's not rocket science.

This is what would make sense and sounds much more honest than what you said at first.

No, it's the exact same thing as what I said at first. The only difference is that I additionally made an attempt to justify the corollary (i.e., "why would scumJuls do something so saliently scummy").

Toasty has done nothing to change my opinion about his slot and is not a non-player, so I see no reason to change my vote.

You don't think the game has been stagnating lately?

That is neither here nor there?

Come vote for Toasty with me if you want.

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Why the hell is everyone saying they think I'm scum while not voting for me? It's super awkward.

I went back to check my wagon status and I think I literally have 0 votes.

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See? Literally zero votes.

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I said to stop going on about it because it narrows down the daykiller identity, which is either benign or allows scum to interfere with it.

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@ TT - I think I should be obvier town by now, so I suppose so.

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See? Literally zero votes.

Do you want votes?

Because I'm pretty sure that could happen.

Nice total lack of votes you've got there.

Be a shame if something were to happen to it.

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My comp just crashed in the middle of a big post so these next few are coming piece by piece.

Why the hell is everyone saying they think I'm scum while not voting for me? It's super awkward.

If I had a top 10 list of pet peeves from mafia players, this would be on it.

~STD

Complaining about not having votes, or people using rhetoric against a player without voting for him?

What is the significance of your "pet peeve" re: actual content in this game?

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Nice total lack of votes you've got there.

Be a shame if something were to happen to it.

What is the point of this threat? All you're doing here is fear-mongering and telling us jack about why Xayzeck is scum. It's the exact same thing you did with me.

lol.

Xayzeck's post was saliently non-constructive. I was lampshading it. It should be super obvious.

It stood out to me because I had thought Xay thought I was town.

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Nice total lack of votes you've got there.

Be a shame if something were to happen to it.

What is the point of this threat? All you're doing here is fear-mongering and telling us jack about why Xayzeck is scum. It's the exact same thing you did with me.

lol.

Xayzeck's post was saliently non-constructive. I was lampshading it. It should be super obvious.

It stood out to me because I had thought Xay thought I was town.

Oh, I see it's possible you just didn't understand what I meant at all.

Go back and read Xayzeck's post (the quoting of which you have removed for some reason). I am paraphrasing it.

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VOTE: Salamence20

Why are you concerned about self-preservation?

...Did you read his post...?

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VOTE: Salamence20

Why are you concerned about self-preservation?

...Did you read his post...?

I don't buy his claim, if that is what you are asking. We agreed that the vig was to be used today and he wanted to save it for a guilty.

I was going to berate you for this, but I kind of agree with this, actually, having looked back at what Salamence posted during that time...I don't know why Salamence posted the stuff he did about the dayvig if he was the dayvig himself.

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Salamence has posted in other games since I made my comment about his claim by way or StrangerCoug. I think he is avoiding this game and hoping that the reservations with his Cop claim will be ignored if he ignores this game.

Unvote; Vote: Salamence20

I think his discussion of the dayvig early D1 is inconsistent with what a town player who was the dayvig would say in that situation. The simplest explanation is that he viewed his dayvig status as part of his "scum" status and instead simply said things that he thought sounded town. If he were actually a town cop dayvig, he would either ignore the topic altogether or steer it elsewhere -- not set-up a situation where the dayvig awkwardly doesn't happen at L-1.

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I have not evaluated the extent to which that is valid, but if it is, I figure it may implicate one of them given a scumflip, especially since Elyse had been under a bit of scrutiny already. It could also imply that Elyse had an uncommon-but-accurate read.

Pedit: It => PV/Xayzeck having more Salamence scrutiny than Elyse. I doubt Nacho would make it up tho so.

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Nice scumclaim bb.

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The major issue, as spelled out by I think 3 different players in this game, is how he talked about the daykill early game in light of his actually being the one who had the daykill.

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It indeed referred to you.

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It indeed referred to you.

That's what I thought.

You're an idiot.

If Salamence is my buddy, he's been a sinking ship all game and there's no fucking way I'm hitching my wagon to that.

~STD

Sorry about your hydra buddy, then.

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Vote: PeregrineV

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Man that Salamance lynch was such a bad deadline lynch wasn't it we should all be ashamed.

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Salamence was not lynched because of lame compromisey things. He was lynched because his claim did not make sense with earlier material he had posted in the thread.

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It might just be PV and Dryfit.

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You are full of insights.

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Vote for PV then.

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He would have just shot PV.

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Peregrine had a credible wagon yesterday?

I guess I forgot?

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Gemini being killed was so dumb that I am inclined to believe that a kill was blocked and Gemini died by some other mechanism.

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If they wanted to mislynch you, why would they shoot Elyse and kill Gemini -- both of whom were on your wagon yesterday?

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If they wanted to mislynch you, why would they shoot Elyse and kill Gemini -- both of whom were on your wagon yesterday?

Elyse I would assume because aside from her gut read on me, she said or did something that scared or worried scum-Sal. Gemini no clue, probably something similar, haven't re-read him yet.

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Ah nevermind. Didn't really process the word "aside."

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Yes, darling.

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At first I was pretty confident that one of elyse/xayzeck would be scum, but soon after salamance dayvigged elyse and voted xayzeck. I'm trying to figure out his reasoning for this and I keep getting stumped.

My take on it is I think it was a desperate attempt to save himself. Elyse was arguably the town's biggest suspect after Salamence. So Salamence wanted to look protown by using his kill as a "second lynch" and killing Elyse. The reason I didn't vote Salamence immediately after he claimed cop is that killing Elyse was a protown move. It just seemed like bad scumplay. Salamence may have been relying on reactions like mine.

So I don't think the Elyse kill says anything about Xayzeck.

This sounds reasonable.

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I don't really understand all the Nacho pedastal business. Seems really unnatural to me -- more focused on evaluating the threat of players to one's ability to avoid lynches than a genuine scumhunting attempt, especially on D2.

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PV's case is actually pretty OK, even though I was going into it being ready to start rolling my eyes.

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Because of his case on you?

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Unvote; Vote: Aronis

I'll be on a plane soon, so going to go ahead and vote now.

I skimmed Aronis and I guess he unvoted Salamance for a bit, so maybe that was him thinking people bought it. I don't really have time to review the chronology.

Nacho's read history today is kinda unnatural so I could see him being scum I guess, but I just don't feel that attached to lynching him after D1. It's unnecessarily conspiracy-oriented thinking at this piont imo, even if it ends up being valid.

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I remember being relatively sure that Dry-fit was town at a certain point D2 IIRC. Can't remember why though.

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Guys I'm drunk and town fyi.

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Uh, SC was pretty obvious town.

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Vote: Xayzeck

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Why are you townreading Pere again? I almost voted him in my previous post before switching to Xay (in part due to skimming SC's yesterday again).

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OK, that makes sense to me.

Unvote; Vote: Nacho

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Nacho's accio'd posts are not terribly inspiring.

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I am inclined to no lynch. In addition to the 6 player situation, a living town player may have the hide/roleblock available, which may allow for someone to be cleared tomorrow depending upon how the deaths work.

Using the hypo-hide is probably pretty risky at this point if it works like a typical hide.

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1. Yes, that is why it is risky.
2. The chance of the roleblocker being alive is greater and more relevant.

Are the horoscopes totally random, or random without replacement?

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Still worth it, I think. I'll just shrug if I lose due to that.

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Town RB can catch someone by blocking the kill. It's WIFOM between that and scum no-killing, though.

If a kill happens, we go from mylo to lylo, meaning that we have a better chance of lynching correctly.

Frankly there is no one in the game that I consider to be obvtown, so I think it is likely that a player that at least some people suspect will be killed if we no-lynch.

To be honest, I think the very best case scenario is the following:

1. No lynch. Town has the roleblock.
2. The roleblocker is not nightkilled. The roleblock is not used (to avoid the WIFOM element).
3. Lynch scum in lylo.
4. Roleblocker roleblocks to clear or find scum.
5. Final lylo.

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Frankly there is no one in the game that I consider to be obvtown, so I think it is likely that a player that at least some people suspect will be killed if we no-lynch.

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Best course of action, then.

The intended contrast was mainly that there may be benefit to delaying the roleblock by 1 night. I realized it based upon your points about using the roleblock when 1 scum remained was ideal. Waiting one day to make the lynch-> roleblock chain maybe happen leaves us in the same position with the benefit of an easier lynch task (40% > 33%), but at the risk of the roleblocker dying during the night (which is only relevant if that person is town, anyway).

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Unless I have misunderstood the rules, the horoscopes aren't any more likely to swing things one way or the other.

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To be honest, I think the very best case scenario is the following:

1. No lynch. Town has the roleblock.
2. The roleblocker is not nightkilled. The roleblock is not used (to avoid the WIFOM element).
3. Lynch scum in lylo.
4. Roleblocker roleblocks to clear or find scum.
5. Final lylo.

Clearly that's not best case scenario?

Best case scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is blocked, we gain a lynch and very likely win the game.
Second best scenario is we lynch scum today, the kill is not blocked but the roleblocker manages to confirm a town player.

Worst case scenario is obviously we lynch town today, the kill is not blocked and we lose outright. I don't think no lynching today significantly improves our chances of getting that first lynch decision right, though. It's true there doesn't seem to be an obvious town player for scum to take out, but they still get to tailor endgame to their purposes.

I'm talking about base case scenario of choices we could make. Obviously if we "choose" to lynch scum every day that is the best case scenario.

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I thought PV was scummy because Salamence killed Elyse contrary to his scumread on PV. This is really consistent with PV being scum with Salamence, since Salamence would want to kill PV due to PV being a "scumread." The counter argument ("omg but PV pushed him so hard") just makes his choice not to kill PV more glaring.

I switched to Aronis away from him to avoid a NL and didn't pursue it at first today mainly because it seemed like no one in the game thought it, and I thought it was weird that Nacho had abandoned it, and then CTD or someone mentioned the Nacho case, so I switched to Nacho.

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I have not evaluated the extent to which that is valid, but if it is, I figure it may implicate one of them given a scumflip, especially since Elyse had been under a bit of scrutiny already. It could also imply that Elyse had an uncommon-but-accurate read.

Pedit: It => PV/Xayzeck having more Salamence scrutiny than Elyse. I doubt Nacho would make it up tho so.

That was my thought as well, and it seems like a glaring neon sign points to PV over Xayzeck but that might just be me.

Here are the relevance posts about PV being scum from D1, including Nacho quoting me and agreeing with me, hence my feeling weird by today when no one seemed interested in assisting me onto him and he also didn't.

This doesn't mean that I think PV should be lynched today; I think NL should occur today. It doesn't even mean that I think PV is most likely scum of the players alive right now. But, the history of that read should be pretty clear.

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Also, Toasty asking everyone to post reads before a NL (subsequent to arguing that the towniest player would be nightkilled if we NL) is terribad, one way or the other.

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Also, Toasty asking everyone to post reads before a NL (subsequent to arguing that the towniest player would be nightkilled if we NL) is terribad, one way or the other.

Here you go again saying shit without any actual basis behind it. Why is it bad to post reads? If someone dies then we have stuff to go off of. And its what we should be doing anyway.

If you are concerned that scum will kill the perceived-towniest player, surely everyone ranking the players from towniest to least-townie is the tryhardiest way to make that happen.

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Meanwhile, all the dead town players were scum reading Xayzeck.

FWIW re: "Iec doesn't explain his reads omg the world is complicated," this was why I voted Xayzeck at the start of the day. A little after I posted that he was obvtown (because he completely was, to the extent that ANYWAY in this game was), I decided to read him again anyway because so many players seemed clueless (so the scum could have actually been clueless), and Xayzeck was where he was pinging yesterday.

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to the extent that ANYONE*

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CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

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Scum are going to do that shit regardless. Information is

everything

in mafia, and that outweighs whatever scum may or may not do. Also I'm about 95% positive scum will kill me, and with that in mind I'd like people to listen to what I have to say now and not find reasons to ignore it. Shoving it in their face is the best way to do that, and I would expect other town to feel the same way.

You should rush NL if you're going to NL for the same reason that you should rush lynches in assassins in the palace. You are wrong, or you are making up theory (lazily) to fit what you think should happen.

Are you suggesting we all pretend to be scummy as fuck to confuse the scum team into killing themselves?
It would explain your gameplay this game but seems

quite

unlikely.

If you're going to be a patronizing fuck, please don't get the game wrong as you do so. Also, you're not even pretending not to strawman.

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

But StrangerCoug and Nacho are dangerous players with "town rally call" playing styles that get night killed not for their performance but their influence and potential late-game (yes, I know Nacho was mod-killed, but I think scum was going after him for that reason). Also there is no way scum

wasn't

pushing the nacho wagon, and let's not ignore that or think that "oh i'm considering it but my reads aren't changed by it" is a valid reaction.

1. The Nacho wagon occurred because of CTD's (frankly pretty sound, because Nacho was uncharacteristically lazy this game) case on him. It is disingenuous for you to say OMG SOMEONE --- WHO COULD IT BE --- WAS DEFINITELY SCUM AND PUSHING THE NACHO WAGON HMMMMM.

2. The point of my post was to respond to Dryfit's post, where he claimed that no one ("except for scum lulz") thought StrangerCoug was obvtown; the point was to indicate that he was objectively wrong. I am obviously not making an appeal to authority that the flipped townie was town.

3. lol @ DANGEROUS PLAYERES

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Like, I understand the instinct to react to people's understanding of the logic of the nightkill as scummy, but StrangerCoug was not a complicated kill at all, and pretending otherwise is just contributing to making the game harder than it needs to be (or it is INTENTIONALLY trying to make the game harder than it needs to be, which is how I read it tbf, but you aren't all scum).

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Again, for the sake of clarification in case Toasty's narcissism gets in the way again, that is directly (mainly) at Dryfit.

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I guess I can probably go a step farther and clarify why I had such a strong townread on StrangerCoug, since I think it might provide context. It's not WHY I thought it -- that part was obvious -- but it's relevant to why I had really strong opinions going into D3.

I got the Hide N1. I didn't use it last night because I would not flip with clarification that I had been a Hider (complicating crumbing it and using it as a weak investigation), and my only town read for confirming innocence was StrangerCoug, and I thought he was so obviously going to be kill that he wasn't safe to confirm as town by hiding behind.

I probably might have put more thought into crumbing it (or just claimed it outright, in hindsight), but I was visiting AP on the West Coast during D2, so I wasn't devoting as much time to my games as I might otherwise have. I remember because I remember voting for Aronis just before going to get on the plane to return.

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Oh look I pissed one off

Sound analysis bb.

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Needless to say, we should mass claim. I'm vanilla town. Order doesn't matter to me. If it indeed turns out that this is an all vanilla set up, I'd consider it a given that we are only looking for one more scum player and there would be even less reason to no lynch, IMO.

I'm also a VT

Gemini Blind didn't have me as a strong scum read. StrangerCoug actually had me in his town block. That's the people who were killed at night. Aronis also didn't have me as a strong scum read. The only player who died wanting me dead was Nacho.

I was referring to burn when I talked about Gemini, I believe. And it doesn't change the fact that Aronis died being one of the few to suspect you. Scum often make kills/lynches that are potentially troublesome for their slots, I don't think this changes that.

Toasty, I don't think your case against me is ill-intended, but it is very misguided. Most of your arguments, as well as your unwillingness to actually engage me on any of our opposed reads indicate to me a deep paranoia that's clouding your judgement:

I don't see a problem with being paranoid in mylo. I operate defensively, and listen to my gut first and foremost, so you aren't really enlightening me on the paranoia bit. It isn't clouding my judgement--its informing it.

The possibility of scum gaining powers is only scary if we are in lylo and the only way to get out of lylo (or mylo) is to lynch today (going by the previous assumption of 2 scum left, which was the basis for my argument). Iece's no lynch road plan actually results in two days where scum could get good luck (with 33% likelyhood on the last day) while lynching today has the potential to result in none. We'd have to lynch scum either today or tomorrow anyway and there is literally no question that lynching today gives us better odds to win.

Fair enough.

I believe you have yet to explain why Dry-fit is such a strong town read for you and why you disagree with my case against him. I would greatly appreciate it if you could set your suspicions of me aside for a second and actually talk to me about our disagreements. If not for your benefit, then for my own. Thank you.

....ok this is a mafia game last I checked I was supposed to push people. Is it a new system to just set that shit aside? I mean the people not providing content in this game may be suggesting so...

1) Regardless of the accuracy or consistency of his reasons, Dry-fit was the biggest proponent of the Salamance wagon. For some reason I get town credit for it, but he doesn't?
2) He has called out multiple people for lazy voting.
3) I find the progression of his read on PV to be very natural/authentic

If you are concerned that scum will kill the perceived-towniest player, surely everyone ranking the players from towniest to least-townie is the tryhardiest way to make that happen.

Scum are going to do that shit regardless. Information is

everything

in mafia, and that outweighs whatever scum may or may not do. Also I'm about 95% positive scum will kill me, and with that in mind I'd like people to listen to what I have to say now and not find reasons to ignore it. Shoving it in their face is the best way to do that, and I would expect other town to feel the same way.

Are you suggesting we all pretend to be scummy as fuck to confuse the scum team into killing themselves?
It would explain your gameplay this game but seems

quite

unlikely.

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

But StrangerCoug and Nacho are dangerous players with "town rally call" playing styles that get night killed not for their performance but their influence and potential late-game (yes, I know Nacho was mod-killed, but I think scum was going after him for that reason). Also there is no way scum

wasn't

pushing the nacho wagon, and let's not ignore that or think that "oh i'm considering it but my reads aren't changed by it" is a valid reaction.

In other news, where the f is xayzeck?
And peregrine catch up soon, please. This isn't the time for continued passivity.

Vote: No Lynch

[Iecerint]

Ignore the quote. I was going to quote some Toasty posts and say something, but better to just NL.

[Iecerint]

I don't understand why you would claim that...the negative side of claiming Hider is smaller because the utility of Hider is pretty shot at this point, but you were pretty unlikely to be nightkilled were I to guess.

@ Dryfit -- I see that my syntax was all messed up in the sentence about Nacho, but my point was that Nacho thought it too (he doesn't say it explicitly, but it's clear from the way he interacts with SC).

The only relevance is that it's SC-town was not esoteric information.

[Iecerint]

Thinking of interactions I have had with CTD, personally I don't think it's likely that the Peregrine->Nacho switch I made early today is very consistent with CTD-Iec scumfriends. It's more likely to be exactly one scum between the two (with CTD scum suggesting Peregrine scum, since no reason to advocate for switching to Nacho otherwise really; and Iec Scum suggesting Peregrine Town).

Relevant to Dryfit enteraining CTD-Iec as the team.

[Iecerint]

I don't understand why you would claim that...the negative side of claiming Hider is smaller because the utility of Hider is pretty shot at this point, but you were pretty unlikely to be nightkilled were I to guess.

You don't understand claiming rb from a town perspective, scum perspective, or both?

Both I guess.

The only rationale I can see is that a) CTD wanted to encourage others to claim, or b) CTD wanted to make it clear that she was not trying to out the RB. But I mean she just did so. Or c) CTD inferred that she was likely to be lynched tomorrow in the event that she did not claim this now and consequently get night-killed (i.e., gambiting that the probability of stopping a kill with it successfully is low enough that suicide is preferable).

[Iecerint]

But she would have just stated as much I guess.

I guess it's a he, but I always read his posts as female for some reason.

[Iecerint]

What do you find disturbing?

[Iecerint]

Like, are you just commenting on my reading your gender as female, or do you find it disturbing that I found your unprovoked claim unusual and showed evidence that I had thought a lot about different possible explanations (which entail different alignments, anyway)?

Also, 7 hours for people who aren't happy with NL.

[Iecerint]

Well, the good news is that the roleblock claim might mean that you get your wish anyway without having to incur a NK.

[Iecerint]

vote:Iecerint

Because if ctd is town there is a chance he blocks the NK

That has been true regardless of who the roleblocker was and CTD said it ages ago. The roleblocker claiming should not suddenly make this course of action more reasonable.

[Iecerint]

Caught up.

My biggest scumread would have to be Iec at this point.

@Iec

- Can you explain why you didn't confirm someone night2? I get that you thought StrangerCoug was town so didn't hide behind him, but why not behind me or another scumread? You could have made it pretty clear so that when you died we would know.

Read the last paragraph of my claim post.

I guess I can probably go a step farther and clarify why I had such a strong townread on StrangerCoug, since I think it might provide context. It's not WHY I thought it -- that part was obvious -- but it's relevant to why I had really strong opinions going into D3.

I got the Hide N1. I didn't use it last night because I would not flip with clarification that I had been a Hider (complicating crumbing it and using it as a weak investigation), and my only town read for confirming innocence was StrangerCoug, and I thought he was so obviously going to be kill that he wasn't safe to confirm as town by hiding behind.

I probably might have put more thought into crumbing it (or just claimed it outright, in hindsight), but I was visiting AP on the West Coast during D2, so I wasn't devoting as much time to my games as I might otherwise have. I remember because I remember voting for Aronis just before going to get on the plane to return.

The bottom line is that it was a play error, but not one that I could correct after I was back from the West Coast, since it was already night and I hadn't crumbed a hide target.

[Iecerint]

If it's 4:2, why is no-lynch bad again?

It isn't bad. It is basically the standard play, especially if there is not an obvious town player. CTD made it slightly less ideal by claiming, but she's scumread enough that it may not matter, and it's just one-shot, anyway.

The potential downside is that we could get a "fortunate" Daykill horoscope and scum could get it, giving them the win. The chance of this is pretty low, though, and has to be leveraged against any town-positive horoscope and the improved scumlynch probability.

CTD has also speculated that it may be 4:1 due to perceived lack of town power and argued that this means we should lynch, though the math still favors NL whenever there is an even number of players, anyway, so this is mostly a theory error on her part. But the extra random kill elements in this game does mess with that some, I guess.

[Iecerint]

I did entertain hide-crumbing a few times while I was at AP's, but I figured scum would probably be hunting for Hide crumbs since they knew someone had just gotten a Hide, which could just result in a free extra NK if they figured it out and it was on town. So I kept putting it off because I never had time to think about the perfect balance, and I didn't even have a target I wanted to try hiding behind. I also wouldn't flip as a Hider, so I couldn't 100% count on people putting the pieces together if it was too vague.

[Iecerint]

5:1 I mean*

[Iecerint]

I saw that. But, unlike Sal using the dayvig, scum using the hider has no benefit. Or even claiming to have used the hider, really. However, claiming it but still having it decreases the likelihood of getting lynched (in a normal game).

Hider has basically negative town utility right now, so I figure scum will discount my having it when they make their choice for a kill. So, I don't think it really affects the likelihood that it would "save" me. If anything, it would increase the chance of being lynched because some people had pointed out that it would have been optimal to use it earlier just before that.

I thought to claim it because I was struggling with why people wouldn't have realized so clearly that StrangerCoug was town + understanding the tendency to find post facto "omg he was so obvtown" claims to be suspect when it indeed wasn't obvious, so I thought of reasons why I had a more solid opinion going into today, and realized that it was relevant to my thinking about how to use my Hide during D2. After I realized that claiming it would be unlikely to affect NK logic, I decided to go ahead and put it out there to make it easier for people to read me.

[Iecerint]

I am voting No Lynch.

[Iecerint]

Needless to say, we should mass claim. I'm vanilla town. Order doesn't matter to me. If it indeed turns out that this is an all vanilla set up, I'd consider it a given that we are only looking for one more scum player and there would be even less reason to no lynch, IMO.

I'm also a VT

Gemini Blind didn't have me as a strong scum read. StrangerCoug actually had me in his town block. That's the people who were killed at night. Aronis also didn't have me as a strong scum read. The only player who died wanting me dead was Nacho.

I was referring to burn when I talked about Gemini, I believe. And it doesn't change the fact that Aronis died being one of the few to suspect you. Scum often make kills/lynches that are potentially troublesome for their slots, I don't think this changes that.

Toasty, I don't think your case against me is ill-intended, but it is very misguided. Most of your arguments, as well as your unwillingness to actually engage me on any of our opposed reads indicate to me a deep paranoia that's clouding your judgement:

I don't see a problem with being paranoid in mylo. I operate defensively, and listen to my gut first and foremost, so you aren't really enlightening me on the paranoia bit. It isn't clouding my judgement--its informing it.

The possibility of scum gaining powers is only scary if we are in lylo and the only way to get out of lylo (or mylo) is to lynch today (going by the previous assumption of 2 scum left, which was the basis for my argument). Iece's no lynch road plan actually results in two days where scum could get good luck (with 33% likelyhood on the last day) while lynching today has the potential to result in none. We'd have to lynch scum either today or tomorrow anyway and there is literally no question that lynching today gives us better odds to win.

Fair enough.

I believe you have yet to explain why Dry-fit is such a strong town read for you and why you disagree with my case against him. I would greatly appreciate it if you could set your suspicions of me aside for a second and actually talk to me about our disagreements. If not for your benefit, then for my own. Thank you.

....ok this is a mafia game last I checked I was supposed to push people. Is it a new system to just set that shit aside? I mean the people not providing content in this game may be suggesting so...

1) Regardless of the accuracy or consistency of his reasons, Dry-fit was the biggest proponent of the Salamance wagon. For some reason I get town credit for it, but he doesn't?
2) He has called out multiple people for lazy voting.
3) I find the progression of his read on PV to be very natural/authentic

If you are concerned that scum will kill the perceived-towniest player, surely everyone ranking the players from towniest to least-townie is the tryhardiest way to make that happen.

Scum are going to do that shit regardless. Information is

everything

in mafia, and that outweighs whatever scum may or may not do. Also I'm about 95% positive scum will kill me, and with that in mind I'd like people to listen to what I have to say now and not find reasons to ignore it. Shoving it in their face is the best way to do that, and I would expect other town to feel the same way.

Are you suggesting we all pretend to be scummy as fuck to confuse the scum team into killing themselves?
It would explain your gameplay this game but seems

quite

unlikely.

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

But StrangerCoug and Nacho are dangerous players with "town rally call" playing styles that get night killed not for their performance but their influence and potential late-game (yes, I know Nacho was mod-killed, but I think scum was going after him for that reason). Also there is no way scum

wasn't

pushing the nacho wagon, and let's not ignore that or think that "oh i'm considering it but my reads aren't changed by it" is a valid reaction.

In other news, where the f is xayzeck?
And peregrine catch up soon, please. This isn't the time for continued passivity.

Vote: No Lynch

[Iecerint]

Hmm. Secret Admirer is not very good. Even if a scum who got it or was targeted gets lynched, it's a scum win unless the Hide or Block stops the kill.

I think we should only fake-vote. When we have 3/5 fake-votes and everyone confirms his fake-vote, we each get a chance to indicate if the target is loverized. If it is...

well, I guess we still have to lynch them in that case, come to think of it. So maybe it doesn't really change anything. We just have to hope the abilities can save us in such a case.

But it's possible that they could both be town with hide (if I was targeted) or the block, so it's still possible to win in that case.

[Iecerint]

The probability of my hide ending the game with a scum win outright was 60% (can't hide behind scum, can't hide behind NK target, the chance of their targeting me is basically 0%). I didn't think through the ramifications of the nympho role very carefully.

Your claim means that if Xayzeck is scum, you would have to be his buddy. You could also be scum with non-Xayzeck. If you are town, the scum have to be PereV and Toasty from my POV.

[Iecerint]

I am aware of your theory from yesterday, but I've been operating assuming two remaining scum, simply because there are almost always 3 scum in mini theme games. I only encounter 2-scum games in newbie games. But, I don't play games as often as I used to. Maybe the norms have changed. 12 players is also small for a newbie game.

[Iecerint]

I claimed Hider in the first place because you mentioned that the Hider had definitely already used his action N2 due to logical/appropriate use of the ability and the ability no longer being useful subsequently. <_< I think that was before you mentioned the 1 scum theory, though, to be fair.

Yesterday my main thinking about your 1 scum theory was that you really wanted to lynch someone and thought that bringing it up would make people lynch someone, perhaps due to a scum alignment. I thought this because you wanted to lynch someone prior to having that perspective on the game balance.

If there's only one scum the main effect from here is that there is wiggle room.

[Iecerint]

Re: "what I am saying here": 5 players, 2 scum. 1 scum is neighborized to 1 town. One of these is lynched -> 3 players, 1 scum. Nightkill. Scum win. But it's true that this is more flexible if 1 scum remains.

You probably don't disagree that that's the only interpretation from my POV, unless you're saying 1 scum remains.

[Iecerint]

Loverized* sorry. At best 1 scum is part of the loverization. If there are 2 scum, we lose unless we lynch scum who isn't loverized. That's the bottom line.

[Iecerint]

We were never bffs.

[Iecerint]

The logic is that 12 players with 3 scum is imba and town doesn't have disproportionate power to make up for the imba.

[Iecerint]

Well, FWIW, I doubt CTD is scum if there's actually one scum. Clearing Xayzeck would be a silly move for scum who could clear anyone. Not to mention that failing to emphasize 1 scum as a possibility would make the clear hazier.

Also nevermind at my earlier logic, since obviously Xayzeck could just have been other than the one who did the kill if there were 2 scum.

[Iecerint]

I guess he'd have to claim a somewhat reasonable target, though.

[Iecerint]

Also nevermind at my earlier logic, since obviously Xayzeck could just have been other than the one who did the kill if there were 2 scum.

[Iecerint]

It didn't occur to me because CTD was framing the RB claim in the context of one scum (without explicitly re-stating one scum), but I was operating under the assumption of 2 scum when I read the "he is cleared" claim, so my interpretation was based on the circumstances under which CTD would clear or fake-clear Xayzeck.

In the universe where you are assuming 2 scum, as I was doing, you totally have to be careful because you can lynch scum and still lose.

[Iecerint]

The nature of that slip should basically confirm to anyone reading very carefully that CTD and Iece cannot be scum together btw, unless we are making improbable and unnecessary fake townslip gambits.

The pairs-logic is of course irrelevant if there's only 1 scum, anyway.

I'm getting a little more inclined to just choose to operate as if there is 1 scum, mostly on the grounds that it will be almost impossible to win if there are two scums.

[Iecerint]

I cannot decide whether Toasty is scum or simply not very good at critical thinking. He's never really made a strong impression on me in forum mafia. We used to play face to face together some, but that was like 2-3 years ago.

[Iecerint]

For example, that thought is motivated by this kind of reaction on Toasty's part:

The probability of my hide ending the game with a scum win outright was 60% (can't hide behind scum, can't hide behind NK target, the chance of their targeting me is basically 0%). I didn't think through the ramifications of the nympho role very carefully.

Your claim means that if Xayzeck is scum, you would have to be his buddy. You could also be scum with non-Xayzeck. If you are town, the scum have to be PereV and Toasty from my POV.

Just saw this lol. In what universe?

His reaction to an error that should be a pretty salient alignment tell is instead focused on the idea that an error has occurred, which is not the mindset of someone who is evaluating alignments.

[Iecerint]

I am providing the extra context only because someone else may have a better sense of you than I do.

[Iecerint]

Also, some people have criticized me earlier in this game as not being transparent enough with why I have reads on particular players (can't remember who, I think Dryfit), so I thought it couldn't hurt to specify why I find you scummy more explicitly. Though you didn't quote that part or implicitly object to it.

[Iecerint]

I did not say that I was a master of mafia; I said that your reactions to my posts suggest that you are not reading them to determine my alignment, which is most consistent with you being scum (OR, with you not being a very good player -- YMMV on what makes a good player, etc).

In other words, I do not think you are dumb -- I think you are scum. The possibility that you could simply be dumb is the Toasty-Town possibility of which I am increasingly skeptical.

I looked back over the Salamence pressure you're apparently so proud of from D1. I mostly just remembered being annoyed at you D1, but I guess the pressure was kinda legitimate. The only funky thing is your weird vote for Xayzeck after StrangerCoug had pointed out the sketchiness of his claim and then I had characterized it. But I guess you did switch to voting with me like 2-3 minutes after that, so meh.

[Iecerint]

I thought Xayzeck was the most likely scum going into today, for the same active lurking you pointed out somewhere early in your iso, but CTD's claim means it is only even possible for him to be scum if there are 2 scum and they are scum together, so I am having to think about other possibilities.

[Iecerint]

(Neither here nor there, but Dryfit was pretty null for me until the day dragged on and on and he towntold like 3-4 consecutive times, which is why you always NL immediately if you are going to do it, etc.)

[Iecerint]

Which reminds me:

Like, I understand the instinct to react to people's understanding of the logic of the nightkill as scummy, but StrangerCoug was not a complicated kill at all, and pretending otherwise is just contributing to making the game harder than it needs to be (or it is INTENTIONALLY trying to make the game harder than it needs to be, which is how I read it tbf, but you aren't all scum).

Again, for the sake of clarification in case Toasty's narcissism gets in the way again, that is directly (mainly) at Dryfit.

I guess I can probably go a step farther and clarify why I had such a strong townread on StrangerCoug, since I think it might provide context. It's not WHY I thought it -- that part was obvious -- but it's relevant to why I had really strong opinions going into D3.

I got the Hide N1. I didn't use it last night because I would not flip with clarification that I had been a Hider (complicating crumbing it and using it as a weak investigation), and my only town read for confirming innocence was StrangerCoug, and I thought he was so obviously going to be kill that he wasn't safe to confirm as town by hiding behind.

I probably might have put more thought into crumbing it (or just claimed it outright, in hindsight), but I was visiting AP on the West Coast during D2, so I wasn't devoting as much time to my games as I might otherwise have. I remember because I remember voting for Aronis just before going to get on the plane to return.

I made these posts after realizing that Dryfit was town. The context was that I was pretty sure he thought it was scummy that I had thought it was so clear that StrangerCoug was town, so, having realized that he was town due to his trying to determine my alignment (even though his conclusion was wrong, because he didn't have all the information that I had available to me), I tried to help him understand why my read on SC was as strong as it was (by giving him the rest of the information).

This sequence of things would never occur to someone who is scum unless they are doing seriously next-level shit. If Toasty thinks I am incompetent at the game, it is (again) parsimonious to assume I am simply town.

[Iecerint]

The nature of that slip should basically confirm to anyone reading very carefully that CTD and Iece cannot be scum together btw, unless we are making improbable and unnecessary fake townslip gambits.

Maybe it's just me but I don't completely follow on this

CTD made a claim that assumed 1 scum, I extrapolated from it assuming 2 scum. That's not the kind of interaction that scumfriends have unless it is very self-conscious.

IIRC we had another interaction like that D3 because I think I remember mentioning it after someone (maybe Toasty?) mentioned we might be scum together, but I can't remember what it was.

[Iecerint]

You are correct that you could be an irrational person -- i.e., not a good player. That is not outside of the universe of possibilities that I am considering. You can mentally replace "dumb" with "irrational" or "plays scummy" if it makes you feel better. There are lots of high-profile players on this site who play that way, including players who do it proudly and encourage others to do it more so that they can win more (e.g., because it's easier to maintain a neutral meta when one draws scum if they cultivate that playstyle). (I am contemptuous of that trend, and it's going to be reflected in how I talk about people who play that way.)

The main difference between town and scum is that town want to figure out alignments and scum already know them. If you are playing in a way suggesting that the content in the thread is interesting to you NOT primarily to the extent that it helps you discern alignments, you are playing the game the way scum do. I noticed that you were interacting with posts that way, so I find you scummy. Yesterday, Dryfit was interacting with posts in a town way, and it made me think he was town (even though his conclusion was to suspect me <-- so NB that this is NOT a simple "people who suspect Iec are scum" situation). I have made how this tell works extremely clear by giving multiple examples.

Not sure what you mean by checking the dead people...the only unusual kill was the first one on Gemini....

I am reading your posts very carefully. That is why they have caused me to do things like go back and check your claimed D1 pressure on Salamance (which I even accepted to have been a thing). I have a hard time believing that you can see me do things like this and then think that I am ignoring your posts, since I went out of my way to do more work on reading your posts and found something that made you somewhat more likely to be town.

I have never argued that you are scum by Process of Elimination, except in the context of 2-scum, which I have mostly discounted at this point, anyway, and even in that case it was just one of a few possible pairings.

[Iecerint]

I wish Peregrine would post.

[Iecerint]

It's really hard not to read those horoscopes as game-relevant. XD

[Iecerint]

Toasty's behavior seems like he entered today with an "easiest path to wincon" agenda and isn't deviating from it or reevaluating it in the face of new information. That is something that I do only when I am scum. I have a hard time believing that he is town.

Peregrine being scum makes relative sense with Salamence's daykill D1. I would feel silly if Nacho called this D1 and then Pere just kind of lurked along to a win.

CTD/Xayzeck I think are only scum in set-up situations where winning is basically impossible. CTD had no need to claim roleblocker as scum (counterargument: she had no need to claim it as town, either, so it may have been an attempt to obtain towncred, and then she had to claim a target). Xayzeck can only be scum if there are 2 scum (or he had a secret strongman ability).

That is my view of everyone right now.

[Iecerint]

You asked for a reason for my read on you "other than PoE," suggesting that you were aware of only a PoE case on you. The main basis of my read on you is not based on PoE, but based on what it looks like you're taking away from the thread.

To be honest, I don't really know why you have a scum read on me. Your posts about me are mostly rhetoric instead of analysis AFAICT (for example, your post that had the "you mean you can't make up any more cases" bit instead of engaging with anything I had said, or yesterday when you said you made me mad instead of engaging with anything I had said, etc). Similar to what I previously described, I find this kind of scummy.

If your answer to my criticism is basically "I am an irrational player and will not towntell because I do not play like a town player," then that might be totally valid for you, but it is not going to really help me to determine your alignment. I think it is a selfish way to play the game. It's not like playing a town game during lylo is going to ruin your D1-D3 scumgame.

I agree that Xayzeck and especially Peregrine posting more is pretty important. Peregrine is apparently back from V/LA tomorrow, though.

[Iecerint]

Additionally, whereas I don't think claiming roleblocker clears CTD, note that I DID give him the chance to use it because I thought it could be gamechanging if true.

Huh?

Quote tags fixed.

[Iecerint]

Oh, you meant where you switched to voting me. OK.

[Iecerint]

I will make a quote wall for you so as to illustrate what I mean by my criticism that your posts about me are rhetoric instead of content. Maybe I will find actual content in the process.

[Iecerint]

Tomorrow, though. I have a real-life issue tonight.

[Iecerint]

From my POV the only thing I am asking you to do is to play to your town wincon if you have it.

I think some playstyles are implicitly violating that rule and I see it as against the spirit of mafia.

I don't think I'm even asking for anything as specific as "logic."

[Iecerint]

Well, maybe isoing you will give me perspective, then.

[Iecerint]

Sagittarius' Daily Horoscope:

Communication is flowing smoothly today, Sagittarius, so take advantage of this and get the word out. It's important for you to make connections with other people now. Run with your instincts and feel free to enter into debates. Your words and tone of voice are very convincing. You could sell anything to anyone today.

HELLO PLAYERLIST

I AM TOWN

Yeah, that's part of what I was talking about previously. I was like "huh, what if dead people can influence the horoscopes."

And mine was like "please be understanding and don't be mean to people they are trying to communicate but talking is hard." XD

[Iecerint]

Don't forget that Peregrine is in the game.

Also, CTD basically had to confirm someone, unless she wanted to claim blocking Dryfit, which would've probably been met with skepticism. But it's true that she didn't have to claim yesterday, so there's that.

[Iecerint]

Virgo's Daily Horoscope:

Don't worry about probing too deeply today, Virgo. Trust people more than you normally would. You will find that things go much more smoothly if you approach them from a neutral or positive and not accusatory position. Listen to the people you care about the most. They're trying to convey important information. You might not want to hear it now, but in the long run, it's in everyone's best interests that you do.

"Plz stop being mean to Toasty" XD

[Iecerint]

OK, I think I've gathered all the posts you've said things about me. My sense on reread is basically the same as earlier -- that you got annoyed that I called out one of your early posts, subsequent to your getting annoyed that I was playing the game on page 1, and then just kind of held onto that all game:

It is not random. Xayzeck had one of the better RVS votes and WP voted him for it. Scummy. Also, weird combination of friendly and confrontational. It's unsettling to read.

This is dumb. wagonwagonwagon may as well have fun with it and make xyasyjkek or whatever the wagon.

This part is you getting mad at me for playing the game on page 1.

It doesn't really matter if we know how the vig was really. It's not as if alignment affects who got the vig (as far as we know), and I'm sure town will claim it after the fact either way.

No.

This is you being hostile for no reason in the face of relatively reasonable closure on blahblah vig chatter early game.

I find Toasty's posts poor and decisions anti-town.
Waiting for the mod to post I suppose, as that's relevant to interpreting the situation right now.

No one cares.

In other news, I've decided to ignore Iecrint unless he explains what troubles him so much about my slot.

Then let's start compromising instead of just sitting around waiting for something to happen. I have a townread on Salamence. Do you have a townread on Iecerint?

No. he's leaning scum for me because he seems to be attacking people without reason.

*****

So, all I've got so far is that you're set that I didn't like your first posts very much and that you're hostile as fuck. I wonder why I didn't like them!

*****

I would be a pretty happy camper if you voted Iec!

You can add the fact that he thinks I'm anti-town for things that can be boiled down to my play-style (as a reason there is a vote on me from him still).

ibid.

I think Xayzeck is active lurking. +scumpoints.

Here's this thing that I mentioned in the previous glance-through. I think you responded by being like "omg you are making things up." /rant

I don't think it's particularly alarming that he has a scumread on me, if that's why you're asking me in particular. I've been kinda lurky in this game of late. I dunno if this is really a reliable scumtell for me, but I don't expect people to townread me particularly.

Are you planning on doing something to change this, or...?

I was going to berate you for this, but I kind of agree with this, actually, having looked back at what Salamence posted during that time...I don't know why Salamence posted the stuff he did about the dayvig if he was the dayvig himself.

The chance of Salamence's claim being real is like 10%. I thought he was joking.

On that note, i changed my mind.

Unvote:Vote:Salamence

Here's where you switch to Salamence post-SC/Iec posts.

Iecerint

People he's voted: Juls/Aronis (town), WitnessProtection/Toasty, Salamance (scum), Peregrine (he also mentioned suspecting Dry-Fir at one point), Aronis again, Xayzcek, Nacho (town, and this was after Xayzceks "I'm voting nacho because I don't like him being around long lololol policy lynch bs, AND CTD's belief that nacho was scum because he "wan't trying hard enough. Bad sheeping at its finest)
People who have voted against Iecerint: StrangerCoug (town), Xayzcek, Nacho (town)

So in addition to being town-read by people for no reason (never good), he's also been fairly buddy-buddy with CTD. I've also felt he was suspicious since the beginning. The lack of active improvement (something that I usually see when playing with Iecerint) also worries me. he has also effectively suspected EVERYONE OTHER than CTD. so......I for one think that is very telling. There has been a lot of active lurking here and very little content. Nonetheless, my scumread on him is partly dependent on CTD, so I don't think he should be lynched first.

So this part is finally having-content, but it seems like the idea is basically that I was "buddy-buddy" with CTD. But you said earlier today that you thought we were together for never mentioning one another. So uh. Yeah.

Oh, he also called me anti-town despite having played with me before. Don't think I don't remember stuff like that...

Again, this feels closer to the real reason you had been scumreading me.

And now that I've caught up, that's about all I have to say on the topic. D:

Iecerint summarizing his role in this game.

Looking through his posts, there is also a lot of "hey, you should vote Toasty with me." "why aren't you voting PV?" with little explanations as to why. Its that sort of subtle manipulation that always stand out when performing ISO'S...

Again, it's mostly based on the read on your AFAICT. The PV thing was based on Nacho's/my interpretation of the Salamance shot D1, which I think was actually pretty clear? But it's realistically easy to miss that kind of thing.

Here you go again saying shit without any actual basis behind it. Why is it bad to post reads? If someone dies then we have stuff to go off of. And its what we should be doing anyway.

I hope that by now it is clear why I wanted to quick NL.

If you are concerned that scum will kill the perceived-towniest player, surely everyone ranking the players from towniest to least-townie is the tryhardiest way to make that happen.

Scum are going to do that shit regardless. Information is

everything

in mafia, and that outweighs whatever scum may or may not do. Also I'm about 95% positive scum will kill me, and with that in mind I'd like people to listen to what I have to say now and not find reasons to ignore it. Shoving it in their face is the best way to do that, and I would expect other town to feel the same way.

Are you suggesting we all pretend to be scummy as fuck to confuse the scum team into killing themselves?
It would explain your gameplay this game but seems

quite

unlikely.

CTD said it, too, in the context of saying that he and I were obvtown. Nacho I inferred in the context of agree with StrangerCoug that I was town. I'm sure there were others. It wasn't in any way a controversial read until D3 started and people bizarrely became know-nothings.

But StrangerCoug and Nacho are dangerous players with "town rally call" playing styles that get night killed not for their performance but their influence and potential late-game (yes, I know Nacho was mod-killed, but I think scum was going after him for that reason). Also there is no way scum

wasn't

pushing the nacho wagon, and let's not ignore that or think that "oh i'm considering it but my reads aren't changed by it" is a valid reaction.

In other news, where the f is xayzeck?
And peregrine catch up soon, please. This isn't the time for continued passivity.

Oh look I pissed one off

You should rush NL if you're going to NL for the same reason that you should rush lynches in assassins in the palace. You are wrong, or you are making up theory (lazily) to fit what you think should happen.

vote:Iecerint

Because if ctd is town there is a chance he blocks the NK

I think its stupid to consider one or two scum. We should just be voting for who we think is scum. Anything else is secondary and we cannot know given our current information.

@Iece: When I did my ISO you guys rarely talked to one another which suggests potential scumbuddies.

Also, does that mean you think CTD is scum if there are 2 but not if there is one? In which case, I think you need to stop trying to decode 1/2 scum, and no one should be making decisions based on it. Because there is no way to know other than setup speculation, which is always going to be an erroneous path.

The probability of my hide ending the game with a scum win outright was 60% (can't hide behind scum, can't hide behind NK target, the chance of their targeting me is basically 0%). I didn't think through the ramifications of the nympho role very carefully.

Your claim means that if Xayzeck is scum, you would have to be his buddy. You could also be scum with non-Xayzeck. If you are town, the scum have to be PereV and Toasty from my POV.

Just saw this lol. In what universe?

Again, this is all predicated on other people being scum, or it's mainly rhetoric suggesting that I am incorrect and/or undesirable rather than that I am scum AFAICT.

I have not intentionally misrepresented anything you said, but please correct me if you think I am missed something important.

[Iecerint]

First three #s line-up with your numbering system, later ones are just responses to your subsequent various comments.

1. I accept that you were pretty upset that I thought your early posts (and other posts) were suspicious/ungood/whatever. I think that this kind of basis for a read on a player is more likely to be inaccurate than most other kinds of reads on a player. I can understand this interpretation given your perception that your own Salamance pressure was superlative. But, I think if you exercise some objectivity, you will be able to appreciate that there were lots of sources of pressure on Salamance, and your own voice is not especially influential (which is something you even pointed out explicitly today IIRC). So I think the motivation for discrediting you (rather than, say, idk, someone less obnoxious and with more clout) would be kind of limited.

2. I do not have any impression or recollection of you from previous games. Like, I vaguely remember you being in one of the Gay mafias (I think?), but I think we nightkilled you early or something, and that was different anyway because I was scum in that and didn't have to assess your alignment. But, this lack of a sense of what's standard for you is what led me to ask others what was up (i.e., is this is playstyle/irrationality/whatever you want to call it, etc).

3. I think my activity has ticked up for two main reasons: I am no longer visiting AP in California, and I am no longer in any other games. These will both change in the next week or so, though. ^^ In other words, I do think that there have been fluctuations in my activity level, but I think it's most easily explained by factors like that. And yeah, I just did the Aronis hammer because it was kind of near deadline, I didn't want to no-lynch, and I didn't want to lynch Nacho. I wanted to lynch/wagon PeregrineV during D2, actually, but Nacho and others seemed to abandon that idea for reasons I never quite got, but I didn't have time to rhetoric for it very aggressively while I was there. I actually didn't even recognize that my Aronis vote was a hammer IIRC; I just saw the deadline in the previous Mod post and voted because I'd be on planes the rest of the day and didn't want inactivity to cause NL.

~~~~

4. I will admit that I kinda feel attached to CTD. I like the way he plays and enjoy playing with him. He reminds me of Ooba. I am kinda wary of him at the same time because I think he is capable of sneaky things. I can only remember one game with him where it ended up being him, me, and someone else in lylo. I voted correctly (yay!), but I honestly can't remember whether CTD or the other player was the scum, or even who I voted for. That's the only CTD game I can remember. I guess this is at least some context on my previous experience playing with CTD, if nothing else.

5. I don't really understand what you don't understand about your "WTF" posts, which I think you intend to speak for themselves (???). For example, Juls had a good plan on how to handle the vig and I endorsed it. What else is there to explain? We don't all have to write a dissertation. In another post you quoted, you asked me at one point whether I still thought that I was hard to read on the basis of my previous play that day, and I said that I thought I was more obvtown by that point, so I said that.

Some of your "omg Iec makes nothing posts" posts are selectively-quoted to appear vapid. I only noticed this because I checked one because I couldn't remember the context. Please do not do this shit. This serves no purpose other than a rhetorical one and it is not a way to actually explain legitimate reads that you have. It is only a way to convince people of a perspective that you are no longer thinking about critically. For example:

The why is that town Juls would never daykill me on page 1 because she is not an idiot. It's not rocket science.

What makes you think I find Elyse scummy?

I actually found Elyse town prior to her fingering me

, and I don't think (???) I've commented on any changed opinion in that regard. Also, I suspect the difference since that point is mostly related to her fingering me.

Toasty has done nothing to change my opinion about his slot and is not a non-player, so I see no reason to change my vote.

In context, it is clear that I am talking to Nacho about my read on Elyse and explaining why I do not understand an implicit assumption in his question to me.

6. You are correct that I was not crazy about the Salamance wagon at first. He became obvscum after his claim contradicted his previous posts, which SC implicitly caught and I independently caught and elucidated after SC was so confident and I wanted to see what was up (because "reviewing posts," which you put into scare quotes for some reason as if it's hard to imagine someone doing that in this game, is something you do when you want to figure the game out). Calling this a "sudden shift in logic" is disingenuous because the reason for my read change was extremely clear. But I think you maybe don't understand part of why SC's claim was so bad? IIRC he had said something like "the dayvig should do X" when it was obvious given the information he "had" that that would be a terrible idea. That's the bottom line. If there are only 2 scum, buddy on the wagon isn't really any more likely than not. The wagon was probably governed mainly by who was online after SC and I pointed out the claim and why it was bad.

If we want to talk about sketchiness re: the Salamance wagon, the most obvious subject is your weird Xayzeck vote. <_<

7. Scum had nothing to do with Nacho dying. I do think the apathy tell CTD mentioned seemed valid. Nacho didn't really show up D2 despite having some opinions about the wagons.

8. Gemini Blind was a dumb kill because one of the hydra heads had made an awful "Salamance's claim is not so bad let's not lynch the claimed cop guys let him investigate" post that just reeked of "this is us going for a one-day reprieve gambit thing and overselling it." Maybe scum thought it was too dumb to be scum. Who the hell knows. I would never have killed them (inb4 N1 kill WIFOM on a player totally disconnected from me for D523423 self-meta benefits or whatever bullshit).

9. I don't know what you were even talking about with "on the mess and so torn" garbage, but I guess you at least disowned that or something, so whatever.

10. Xayzeck is confirmed by CTD unless the gamestate is nigh-impossible to win, Nacho is dead, I think CTD is probably town at this point in any winnable circumstance for the game, so yeah, I'm down to basically you and PeregrineV. I have said this multiple times and your insinuation that my focus on you is hard to understand or random in some way is clearly bullshit.

11. I obviously have the Hider ability...it was the horoscope from N1. There would be no reason to claim it otherwise. As already explained, I claimed it because I realized that Dryfit was town and wanted to make it as obvious as possible why I had such a strong town read on StrangerCoug going into yesterday (cuz I was operating under a 2 scum assumption and assumed that the ability no longer had any reasonable function after Nacho's modkill, so giving the information about my mindset to help Dryfit was the best use to be hoped for).

~~~

Anyway, I think this has been kinda useless as far as you and I are concerned, as when you repeatedly ignore clear context like that and just vaguely say stuff like "THE HIDER CLAIM: SELF-EXPLANATORY!!!!!!!!!" it is really hard for me to take seriously that you have any intention to figure out my alignment. But, maybe someone else will find this helpful.

[Iecerint]

No harm claiming VT at this point I guess.

I may have slipped this when I said that I would flip as a townie rather than as a hider. I asked the mod about this N2 when I was deciding whether I should hide behind someone, since I hadn't had the time committment to the game while at AP's to come up with a good crumbing strategy and all that, and his clarification that I would just flip as townie is (part of) why I didn't use it. I may've just said "won't flip as a hider," though; I haven't checked back at my posts to confirm.

[Iecerint]

I did entertain hide-crumbing a few times while I was at AP's, but I figured scum would probably be hunting for Hide crumbs since they knew someone had just gotten a Hide, which could just result in a free extra NK if they figured it out and it was on town. So I kept putting it off because I never had time to think about the perfect balance, and I didn't even have a target I wanted to try hiding behind. I also wouldn't flip as a Hider, so I couldn't 100% count on people putting the pieces together if it was too vague.

No, I just said no hider flip.

[Iecerint]

I am still trying to evaluate Toasty v Pere. The only reason it ends up coming up as something like a "case" is that Pere hasn't really posted and it's hard not to see ill-intent whenever Toasty seems like he wants to engage with me. <_<

[Iecerint]

Hide was the N1 Horoscope. Everyone in the game knew that someone had a Hide, unless the person who got it had happened to die. That's part of why I had a hard time figuring out how to crumb a hide target D2, though I might have come up with something if I hadn't been distracted during D2.

I knew that you were making a joke about fingering, but your quote context made it seem like you meant it as like "the cheery on top in my catalogue of Iec making filler posts," with the only "joke" aspect being that the nature of my filler was amusing or whatever.

I share your frustration with Peregrine/Xay.

[Iecerint]

All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?

Day 2's Fortunate Horoscope (6)

One-Shot Hide

Day 2's Unfortunate Horoscope (7)

Bad Fortune

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the second day phase.

[Iecerint]

It doesn't mean that I'm town -- anyone can get the Hide -- but I definitely have the hide, unless you think I was gambiting that the hide player was already dead.

The part to evaluate is whether the way I have used the Hide indicates that I am scum. CTD has argued that I have used it suboptimally (because it would have been best to use it N2), but does not think the suboptimalness is scummy. I think the pattern of thinking about my ability that I have indicated in this thread, best illustrated in the circumstances under which it occurred to me to claim it, should make it relatively clear that I am town.

[Iecerint]

I just checked. It looks like the first horoscope was to Gemini on page 17 in VC 12. Elyse was still alive at the time. This means that the horoscopes can't be coming from dead players.

[Iecerint]

Unless a subset of the horoscopes are real or something.

[Iecerint]

OK, caught up.

Pretty much where I'm at.

Toasty- Yes, I think Toasty is town. Since he replaced in he has been interacting with everyone, and pushing, poking and prodding to get reads and create discussion. I admit I'm partial to this style myself, but I can see his play as transparent and actively trying to solve the game.

CTD- I mostly tend to lean CTD town, but not for the same reason as Toasty. For the most part, I've not been feeling his reads until we came to Nacho. My biggest concern for CTD is that I feel like he has a town read on me, but that we have really interacted. This could be because we just finished a game as masons together and maybe he knows me well enough without asking all the questions, but that type of interaction is how I pick up a lot of my reads.

Xay- Mostly only susceptible because while I don't have a strong town read on him, it's because I feel Toasty & CTD are more town. But, Sal putting him as a scumread along with me early game has kept him in the townside of everything.

Iec- Sorry, bud, but I do think you're scum. I like your caution and keeping up with the horoscope powers, but it really bugs me that you didn't use your ability to confirm (or damn) someone prior to circumstances making it impossible for you to do so. And I'll admit it doesn't help that you're scumreading me without me really understanding why you have that read.

Discuss.

This reads pretty much like point-for-point bullshit.

1. I can imagine reasons that someone might think that Toasty is town. However, "Toasty is trying to solve the puzzle" is the

opposite

of his playstyle this game. His playstyle this game is using rhetoric to support a position that he identifies ahead of time.

This reads like you're just glancing at his long walls, perceiving "Toasty is tryharding," and then assuming that he is puzzle-solving without actually reading his posts critically.

2. The CTD content is meta-based; can't really comment on that. I don't really recall CTD having a townread on Peregrine, but I can imagine Peregrine being more sensitive to this possibility than me. She really

shouldn't

given her own stated take on the setup (1 scum, Xay cleared), but w/e. I suppose she thought it was Xay last night, so maybe just not re-broached due to your relative absence.

3. CTD claimed to have roleblocked Xay last night, so Xay is extremely likely to be town. It is only possible that Xay is scum if a) he is scum with CTD or b) there are 2 scum and the other scum killed last night.

This interaction is probably the most important thing to considering in evaluating Xay given how little he has done today, so the fact that you totally ignored/missed it, similar to your point about Toasty, makes me think you have not read the game very carefully for one reason or another.

4A. Again, you are missing/ignoring that I have explained the full context for using my Hider action. You can very easily cross-reference my activity in this game during D2 (the only night when it was reasonable to use my Hide) with my activity on the site in general and confirm that I am not bullshitting.

And why the hell is non-optional use of an ability a scumtell, anyway? As scum I could "confirm" anyone in the game by lying about a hide target and then kill them immediately and avoid scrutiny due to this. Or I could just forego claiming Hider altogether, especially since someone (CTD I think) had just been like "well the Hider obviously used his/her ability yesterday hehe" immediately beforehand (i.e., so it was clear it would invite scrutiny).

4B. Main reasons to think you are relatively likely scum go way back to Salamance's kill D1 (the Elyse target over his stated suspects suggests his stated suspects may have included scumfriends, since he could just shoot his preferred target and take less scrutiny). Apart from that, the roleblock logic from CTD makes it more likely that at least one of you and Toasty are scum, hence my focus on the two of you.

I have said both of those things a gazillion times, so not sure why you do not understand that it is a thing.

[Iecerint]

Not sure if just lazy, though.

[Iecerint]

All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?

Day 1's Fortunate Horoscope (4)

One-Shot Daykill

Day 1's Unfortunate Horoscope (9)

Bad Fortune

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the first day phase.

All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?

Day 2's Fortunate Horoscope (6)

One-Shot Hide

Day 2's Unfortunate Horoscope (7)

Bad Fortune

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the second day phase.

All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?

Day 3's Fortunate Horoscope (2)

One-Shot Roleblocker

Day 3's Unfortunate Horoscope (2)

Post Restriction

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the the third day phase.

All that has been and all that will be is here for you to know. Dare you glimpse the future? Dare you even ask...?

Day 4's Fortunate Horoscope (3)

Bulletproof Vest

Day 4's Unfortunate Horoscope (3)

Secret Admirer

These two horoscopes have been sent out in preparation for the fourth day phase.

[Iecerint]

Salamance got the daykill.

I have the hide, unused.

CTD claimed the roleblock, targeted Xayzeck when a kill still occurred.
Nacho is inferred to have had the PR and been modkilled due to breaking it.

Vest/Loverize have not been claimed.

Of note, I couldn't use the Hide during N1. I learned that I got it N1, but couldn't use it til N2.

[Iecerint]

I don't know Toasty meta. It is possible that there's a real contrast here from his scum games.

"Relative absence" because you have not participated in the game today until now.

I literally point out the possibility about the roleblocker you articulate in the text you quoted. You're wrong that it doesn't affect the probability of Xay being scum even in that case (as he can only be half as many of the scum slots), but yeah, this makes him other-than-cleared. As for the other, I am basically operating as if Xay is cleared because I think it is almost impossible to win if there are two scum right now given the loverize.

You do not flip with your Hide, so a Hider death would not be trackable. You normally get around this by crumbing your Hide target the day prior, but I couldn't think of a way to do this when the scum knew someone had just gotten a Hide, assuming they were paying attention. I might have figured something out if I'd paid more attention D2 to be fair, though. Side-note: Toasty's confusion about this, if not feigned, is probably a towntell, especially since Salamance got the horoscope daykill D1.

I specifically said in my Hide claim that I was claiming it because it was no longer a useful ability for town and by that point a negative utility town role (in the 2 scum universe). This is because using it last night had a 60% chance of killing me (hide behind 2 scum + 1 kill target, negligible risk of being the kill target), which would have ended the game outright. So, you apparently didn't read my reasoning very carefully. I only claimed Hider to help Dryfit read me.

[Iecerint]

Xay, please post.

We may need an extension or replacement if CTD is unable to play for health reasons.

[Iecerint]

I suspect that exactly one of Toasty and PV is scum. I am trying to determine which.

It turned into Toasty v Iece because PV wasn't posting and Toasty is scumreading me.

[Iecerint]

Re: you, if you are scum that means 2 scum (since CTD cleared you if she is town, and if CTD is lone scum that still clears you), and 2 scum means an instant loss basically.

Like the scumteam could claim right now and we would still probably lose if there are two scum.

So I want to live in a fantasy land.

[Iecerint]

I was only engaging with Toasty because he was here.

My intent was really to try to figure out where he was coming from. There seems like a mix of stuff I can see coming from town and stuff that just looks twisted to get people to scumread me, so kinda mixed results I guess.

PV looks like he's not paying much attention while not being honest about it, while appealing to Toasty's perspective. Seems relatively sketchy at this point.

If either the lynch or NK interacts with the loverize mechanic, we lose instantly. (Come to think of it, I guess this applies even if there's only one scum, with the saving grace that we can also win before the loverize mechanic becomes a problem.)

[Iecerint]

@mod: requesting extension to compensate for the V/LA of Peregrine and CTD's hospital situation

[Iecerint]

Vote: Peregrine

If permitted.

[Iecerint]

If either the lynch or NK interacts with the loverize mechanic, we lose instantly. (Come to think of it, I guess this applies even if there's only one scum, with the saving grace that we can also win before the loverize mechanic becomes a problem.)

Except, of course, if the scum drew the ability, in which case our chances of winning would improve significantly.

Odd miscalculation on your part. There are two ways you could know whether the secret admirer is scum and maybe I shouldn't have pointed that out, but I don't have the time or wherewithal currently to figure it out.

If we lynch unloverized scum, we are OK. But if we lynch anyone loverized, including scum who got SA, we lose.

[Iecerint]

Hold. I am interacting with the Mod.

[Iecerint]

I mean. Feel free to talk amongst yourselves but.

[Iecerint]

Tomorrow afternoonish I'll be on planes, but I hope RC checks his inbox before then.

[Iecerint]

Still in Outbox.

[Iecerint]

I was only focusing on Toasty because Peregrine was lurking.

Gg.

[Iecerint]

Thanks for the game! I think part of the reason why this game was so low energy has to do with there only being 1 scum for most of it. It's frustrating trying to look for connections when there aren't any and most people looked decently town. But yeah, I don't think anyone's going to be accused of being a try-hard off the back of this game.

I really liked the set-up and the theme, though I think it would have been better as an open. And while RC's modding was occasionally a bit sluggish, I really like the running commentary he did in the dead PT and wish more mods would show that kind of interest in their own games.

Kudos to Toasty for making the right decision in the end, as I was dreading any kind of endgame featuring Iece or Toasty town. Last time I was in that situation with both of them, they eventually correctly lynched me because I strongly defended my buddies (Iece apparently doesn't remember as he referenced the game but didn't recall any details, but it certainly remains in my memory ). I was honestly surprised that my defense of Salamance wasn't really brought up until the last day at all, and even then only in passing.

I suppose there's humor in the fact that not only did three townies cause the D4 no-lynch, but that they were all thinking (to some extent) that they were in lylo. I really was pretty furious at the time, but I'm glad I decided to stick with it and not replace out.

Hope to see you all soon in another game.

I remembered the game and winning, but just not who I lynched to make that happen. I forgot that it was Toasty there too, though. o.O

[Iecerint]

Nacho was like "this implicates PereV" before Sala had even flipped, but then no one (even Nacho!) would vote him with me for the next several days.