Open 569 ~ Hope + 1 ~ Game Over!


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Post Post #58 (isolation #0) » Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:12 pm

Post by davesaz »

Clearly I won't be leading postcount. ;)

Must... post... vote... (wait, it's still RVS time, right?)

VOTE: SXTLHGaiden
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Post Post #59 (isolation #1) » Mon Aug 25, 2014 8:13 pm

Post by davesaz »

I will have intermittent access for about 48 hours, flying to China. Feel free to post incriminating evidence so that I may use it against you later.
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Post Post #115 (isolation #2) » Tue Aug 26, 2014 5:11 am

Post by davesaz »

While I have no objection to a d1 lynch on principle, would prefer to see a bit more data first.
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Post Post #943 (isolation #3) » Wed Aug 27, 2014 4:38 am

Post by davesaz »

holy crap, it went from 6 pages to 38 while I was in the air! I'm posting this after reading page 12.
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Post Post #1029 (isolation #4) » Wed Aug 27, 2014 6:33 am

Post by davesaz »

Wow, my eyes hurt. I'm not going to quote a bunch of stuff right now, or I'll be up another couple of hours.
Instead I'll just summarize my reads. None of this is very firm, but since I'm new to the site it's also completely free of meta.

Team 9 - might be town, but the "hope we don't get NK'd or town is screwed" bit causes a bit of worry for me. That could just be meta talk though.
Sakura and tn -- if one is scum, the other one probably is too. I don't see mafia getting into that kind of argument with town, too much risk
notsci -- didn't panic when the rvs wagon got up there. Examine the folks who left early for possibly buddy. If they read town, then notsci probably town too.

Speaking of being new to the site, I have completed somewhere between 20 and 40 games (haven't ever counted them), on forums.civfanatis.com and forums.totalwar.org, under a different name. The activity levels were more like this many posts for an entire large game, and those games were typically 48 hour days and 24 hour nights.

pedit: 16 posts while I was composing this? :eek:
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Post Post #1211 (isolation #5) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:35 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1207, tn5421 wrote:
I've never had anything except the crap 'sweet tea' they serve in the South in the US.

You should be able to ask for it unsweet, if the sweetness is the problem.
If it's about the type of tea, you can get other varieties at just about any grocery store.

Yes, I can fluff if given a good starting point. :wink:

startfromtheheart wrote:VOTE: x88b88

Next VC will be an update

That username reminds me of binary

Binary spam

Pedit - Los Angeles


So this is a vote merely to change the VC? Aren't we past that point now? (evidence gathering continues)
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Post Post #1212 (isolation #6) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 12:48 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1069, Varsoon wrote:
UNVOTE: Bins isn't going anywhere.

In post 1209, Varsoon wrote:
VOTE: Bins
Looking back, I still don't like it.


Why come off if it isn't going anywhere? Was the vote worthwhile to begin with?
Why go back on? Did you actually see something new, or what?
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Post Post #1215 (isolation #7) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:42 am

Post by davesaz »

I've been ISOing folks to try to get a handle on the 1200+ posts, and it turns out my vote on Gaiden might just be the real deal.
Gaiden is active lurking along with proposing strategies which would expose town PR's and use up abilities. Definitely not anything I'd ever do as town.
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Post Post #1217 (isolation #8) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 3:56 am

Post by davesaz »

Looking some more, startfromtheheart is a weak scum read. Active lurking, posting most/all fluffy, and no serious efforts. The only thing lacking to make a Gaiden clone would be anti-town strategies.
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Post Post #1218 (isolation #9) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 4:01 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1216, Flubbernugget wrote:I seriously can't tell if I'm troll reading or scum reading people any more.

What do you mean by troll reading?
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Post Post #1404 (isolation #10) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 1:04 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1224, SXTLHGaiden wrote:
In post 1217, davesaz wrote:Looking some more, startfromtheheart is a weak scum read. Active lurking, posting most/all fluffy, and no serious efforts. The only thing lacking to make a Gaiden clone would be anti-town strategies.

I have discussed all of 2 strategies. One with Sakura and the other was shot down cause I didn't read the "Macho" part.
I think it might be time for a Super High School Level Vote.

VOTE: dave


Nice OMGUS, is that all you have?

In post 1229, SXTLHGaiden wrote:mostly it is cause he is taking a strategy that I proposed due to a certain lack of reading and claiming it was antitown to discuss it, even though it pretty much reduces to follow the cop.
He didn't even note that I didn't see the macho part.
it seems he his trying to give credence to a vote that otherwise he wouldn't have. I am always a low hanging fruit though...

Self meta is a defense then?

In post 1230, Sakura Hana wrote:
In post 1229, SXTLHGaiden wrote:I am always a low hanging fruit though...

You're never low hanging fruit to me because i can read you like a book.

In post 1231, SXTLHGaiden wrote:This is why if sakura says i'm town, i treat myself as conftown.
if she says i'm scum, you should lynch me. And if i flip town on top of that, lynch sakura.

More meta.
In post 1300, startfromtheheart wrote:
In post 1224, SXTLHGaiden wrote:
In post 1217, davesaz wrote:Looking some more, startfromtheheart is a weak scum read. Active lurking, posting most/all fluffy, and no serious efforts. The only thing lacking to make a Gaiden clone would be anti-town strategies.

I have discussed all of 2 strategies. One with Sakura and the other was shot down cause I didn't read the "Macho" part.
I think it might be time for a Super High School Level Vote.

VOTE: dave


Following your lead.

The Collective contains Gaiden's college graduate IQ

Watch out


Aww, you have sheep. I'm impressed.

In post 1301, startfromtheheart wrote:VOTE: dave

Case on Gaiden is a case on me

Bad

Now that you mention it, my case on both of you was based on the same reason at that time.



Thanks for revealing that the vote on me was just OMGUS by proxy. Back to tn, huh? Scum trying to keep a wagon alive?
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Post Post #1408 (isolation #11) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 4:03 pm

Post by davesaz »

So we have 2 different scum reads on tn and Gaiden, and the older one that resulted in a wagon on Bins which has since eroded.
I posted recently on the reasons behind Gaiden, but the tn read is spread all over the place. Maybe it could be summarized for comparison purposes?
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Post Post #1427 (isolation #12) » Thu Aug 28, 2014 11:32 pm

Post by davesaz »

I took Titus's replace out as being due to the pain. With that as a presumed reason, I'd say it shouldn't impact the read much if at all.
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Post Post #1446 (isolation #13) » Fri Aug 29, 2014 2:33 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1442, Flubbernugget wrote:
I see pretty much see all of those points as Titus trying to get reads in a manner she best interprets them. Isn't she known for getting reads based off of the emotions she sees in posts?

Does that mean you read Titus as town, or just as not scum?

Can you remind us what your case is on Bins?
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Post Post #1467 (isolation #14) » Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:08 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1450, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 1446, davesaz wrote:
In post 1442, Flubbernugget wrote:
I see pretty much see all of those points as Titus trying to get reads in a manner she best interpres them. Isn't she known for getting reads based off of the emotions she sees in posts?

Does that mean you read Titus as town, or just as not scum?

Can you remind us what your case is on Bins?

Can you tell me your read on her? Or at least direct me to it if I missed it?


To be honest, I hadn't looked. I'm trying to test your confidence in the vote. And you didn't answer the first question, is Titus town, or not scum? There is a difference.

Since you asked, I reviewed Bins. She kept digging at the reasons behind her wagon, long after it was gone and all but 2 had moved on to other votes. That's a pretty clear tell to me, but I'm going to be difficult and ask for your read first.
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Post Post #1468 (isolation #15) » Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:13 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1461, startfromtheheart wrote:tl;dr

town - sakura, pie, titus slot

null - gaiden until he starts lurking hardcore, then he can become town, if he keeps engaging and hoping to have us underestimate him then he can become scum! mwahahaha

likeliest to be scum out of the ppl i am familiar with - varsoon

varsoon is just all around scummy in general though, so...........

In post 1462, startfromtheheart wrote:i dont relaly know what to say about tn5421, i know from modding that he/she is kinda flakey? that has nothing to do wit hehre though, i think he/she is just really busy irl maybe

but yeah, play looks just like hard headed stubborn play, thats not really indicative of alignemnt so i cant help sorry


So your best scum read is Varsoon, but you're still voting tn? And stubborn play isn't indicative of alignment? Why the vote then?
I'm thinking of coming off Gaiden onto you. Admitting you're not really trying and we're supposed to think that's OK? Because it looks like you could be scum trying to get by as lazy townie.
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Post Post #1470 (isolation #16) » Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:50 pm

Post by davesaz »

Shh, don't worry about it, I'm laying out some bait for someone else.
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Post Post #1492 (isolation #17) » Fri Aug 29, 2014 11:44 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1490, Team 9 wrote:
@dave:
what's your current read on Titus?

also, quick question:
So we have 2 different scum reads on tn and Gaiden, and the older one that resulted in a wagon on Bins which has since eroded.
I posted recently on the reasons behind Gaiden, but the tn read is spread all over the place. Maybe it could be summarized for comparison purposes?

do you usually think about scum reads as consensus-based, like you're doing in this post?


on Titus, I was pretty convinced that the replace out was pain related, and it had seemed townish. I'm less certain since and need to see what the replacement does.

On the other question, reads are not consensus-based, but lynches are. Town can develop their own reads and push them, or evaluate the reads of others to decide which is strongest, or a combination of the two. I tend to do both.
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Post Post #1498 (isolation #18) » Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:49 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1493, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 1467, davesaz wrote:
To be honest, I hadn't looked. I'm trying to test your confidence in the vote. And you didn't answer the first question, is Titus town, or not scum? There is a difference.

Null. No idea what she was going to do with the information she was trying to gather.

Since you asked, I reviewed Bins. She kept digging at the reasons behind her wagon, long after it was gone and all but 2 had moved on to other votes. That's a pretty clear tell to me, but I'm going to be difficult and ask for your read first.

Minimal active scumhunting.

Weak defenses.

Lots of filler.

That's what it boils down to.


Yeah, that describes a lot of people. Too many by far.

Circling back to the observation I made that Bins kept digging at the wagon after it was gone. This says town to me, medium strength. Typical scum would be totally relieved that the wagon disappeared. If pressured on being relieved they'd try to wave it off as never being serious to begin with. They wouldn't keep it in the spotlight. This is one of the ways that wagons help town whether they actually result in a lynch or not.
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Post Post #1633 (isolation #19) » Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:10 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 857, The Bulge wrote:
In post 855, Flubbernugget wrote:
In post 850, The Bulge wrote:<

I'm V/LA.


How V/LA are you if you managed to catch that from this gargantuan thread?

Other than that, tn, can you explain your reads on me? Your read on bulge shows you're tunneling pretty bad, but I honestly don't know whether to see it as a scum tunnel or town tunnel.

I'm at a camp. I have an organized schedule all day with free time in the afternoon for an hour and a half and in the evenings (right now) for as long as I decide to stay up.


In post 1522, The Bulge wrote:
In post 1512, Team 9 wrote:Bulge is sitting there avoiding the thread

Are you fucking kidding me? I literally just walked into my house. I've been travelling all day and I've been at a camp all week with a strict schedule and very little free time. I am not lurking. I'm fucking busy. That's what a V/LA is.


In post 863, The Bulge wrote:
In post 855, Flubbernugget wrote:How V/LA are you if you managed to catch that from this gargantuan thread?

I understand your question now. I get distracted easily while re-reading. Every time I check my egosearch, I get the most recent posts in this thread. So I'm kinda reading the beginning of the thread at the same time as what's happening right now.

PEDIT - tn I'm not posting because I'm reading. Which takes a long time. See above.


I don't see this as particularly defensive. If anything, annoyed at having to explain it multiple times.
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Post Post #1634 (isolation #20) » Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:22 pm

Post by davesaz »

I'm not sure I buy the PoE, at least not wholesale. If the only reason you have scum reads on people is that they're the only ones you don't have town reads on, it means the scum are improbably good. Unless the town is also unusually inactive, having all scum inactive/fluffy raises the odds that scum will be lynched early. I don't believe it's likely for all 3 scum to lay low. I think at least one of them would be active, and if they were active then they'd be making a case on someone who was town read by other players. Or the active scum is making a case on an inactive / lurker / contentless player.

Hmm, I had to edit that several times while writing it. Hoping it makes sense...
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Post Post #1635 (isolation #21) » Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:26 pm

Post by davesaz »

Make that a case on an inactive/apathetic townie. So either all scum are active, or Team 9 is at least a weak town read. (if one or more scum inactive then Team 9 would have to be bus reading -- not completely out of the question but IMO not likely this early)
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Post Post #1638 (isolation #22) » Sun Aug 31, 2014 1:50 am

Post by davesaz »

@Sakura: Punctuation (in particular periods) and line breaks are your friends. :wink:

First I should start off by saying that I'm not against the read per se, and have no desire to defend any individual. I'm just pointing out from a pure logic point of view that it is far more likely to be at least a little wrong than it is to be totally right. With that in mind...

The PoE is valid only if all the underlying town reads are valid. Worst case, 3 of the people read as town are actually mafia, and the 3 "eliminated" people are actually town. Best case it's 100% inaccurate and we only need to lynch the 3 identified people to win. I expect both edge cases to be false, and the truth lies somewhere in between. If Team 9 is town, then these 3 players are most likely to be 1 town 2 mafia, or 2 town 1 mafia. If team 9 is mafia, then all 3 of these players are probably town, or one of them might be mafia and it's a soft bus.

To sum that all up, we can't take the PoE for granted. But I think there may be 1-2 scum in those 3 players.

BTW, how would someone who is innocent defend against a PoE read anyway? I don't think I've ever seen one used this early in a game.
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Post Post #1848 (isolation #23) » Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:47 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1847, Thesp wrote:
In post 1634, davesaz wrote:I'm not sure I buy the PoE, at least not wholesale. If the only reason you have scum reads on people is that they're the only ones you don't have town reads on, it means the scum are improbably good. Unless the town is also unusually inactive, having all scum inactive/fluffy raises the odds that scum will be lynched early. I don't believe it's likely for all 3 scum to lay low. I think at least one of them would be active, and if they were active then they'd be making a case on someone who was town read by other players. Or the active scum is making a case on an inactive / lurker / contentless player.

Hmm, I had to edit that several times while writing it. Hoping it makes sense...

In post 1635, davesaz wrote:Make that a case on an inactive/apathetic townie. So either all scum are active, or Team 9 is at least a weak town read. (if one or more scum inactive then Team 9 would have to be bus reading -- not completely out of the question but IMO not likely this early)

From one of the least active players in the game, this feels very self-serving. A davesaz wagon wouldn't make me cry (even if I'm not keen on its current sole adherent).


Not sure how you see it as self serving. I may be least active in terms of total post count, but that's because I'm incapable of posting fluff. Look inside my iso and you'll see .
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Post Post #2010 (isolation #24) » Tue Sep 02, 2014 12:27 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1993, SXTLHGaiden wrote:it seems we have some new people.
hello.
i am the embodiment of fluff.


Please do us all a favor and pull your head out. Or replace out if you're not going to play.
If you're not hunting scum, then you're scum.
I don't know why the rest of y'all are willing to just let this go by.
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Post Post #2013 (isolation #25) » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:06 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1872, Thesp wrote:
In post 1848, davesaz wrote:Not sure how you see it as self serving. I may be least active in terms of total post count, but that's because I'm incapable of posting fluff. Look inside my iso and you'll see .

I'm not persuaded.

Are you still happy with your vote on SXTLHGaiden? Why or why not?

As a matter of fact, I am quite satisfied with it. Gaiden is taking great care to post enough to not be force replaced, but doing absolutely nothing pro-town. The only activity worth the name is an OMGUS on me, once it became clear my RVS vote had turned into a real read. Since it seems unlikely that anyone is going to care about this, I suppose I'll eventually drop it and move on. Though the "told you so" will be very sweet if Gaiden turns up scum later. Some might say I could make an equal case for notscience or startfromtheheart. At least they're showing some real activity. Not much, but some.

I have a serious problem with the Bulge wagon. The Bulge claimed that the V/LA time wasn't just limited access, it was next to no access. I know exactly what that is like, have been in similar situations myself. Team 9's case started off being about inactivity, and then turned nasty when Bulge made a mistake, retracted it, and then screwed up an explanation of the retraction. I don't think it's my place to repair the issue, but I'm not convinced at all by Team 9's argument. Lack of eloquence doesn't necessarily equal scumminess.

I agree with an earlier comment (perhaps by you) that having so much posting actually makes it easier for scum to hide. I stated already, at least one scum is certainly active, and I'd be very surprised if they're not among the most active. Having such a deluge of material to wade through will make it very hard to find the lies, and having probtown shoot themselves in the foot isn't going to make it any easier.

If I were to take body of work into account, at this point in time I'd say that Sakura makes sense for scum. This is not based on specific posts, just a general feel based on all the "Team 9 is town and so am I -- you'd better not disagree with us" type material. (note, this may have never been said -- I'm not quoting tonight because I'm in a hurry)
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Post Post #2014 (isolation #26) » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:12 am

Post by davesaz »

And now, in a separate post on why I'm in a hurry.
I fly back to the US from China tomorrow. About 24 hours with spotty to no internet, followed by another 12 glued to my wife and kids. I need to try to sleep, the alarm is set for 4am local. (8pm when posting this)
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Post Post #2016 (isolation #27) » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:50 am

Post by davesaz »

But my point is that he was not here. You're saying he was doing nothing during a time when he wasn't even here.
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Post Post #2017 (isolation #28) » Tue Sep 02, 2014 1:51 am

Post by davesaz »

Now if you want to say he's done nothing but defend since being attacked, that's a completely different argument.
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Post Post #2156 (isolation #29) » Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:29 am

Post by davesaz »

5-6 pages while I'm sleeping. This is going to be so much easier when RL day comes the same time as most of the players. ;)

All of this history based stuff goes right by the new guy.

I guess the main reason I don't like a day 1 PoE is that it must be based in large part on reading people by their tendencies and not by their actions. I don't normally PoE until there are a few flips to drive some logic.
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Post Post #2382 (isolation #30) » Tue Sep 02, 2014 6:59 pm

Post by davesaz »

Another 6 pages during my first flight. Big pov change from sakura slot. I may want to change reads but will let some more stuff develop. Posting mobile is hard.
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Post Post #2689 (isolation #31) » Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:59 am

Post by davesaz »

Another flight, another 10 pages. :eek:

Ika's posting bugs me, but I can't decide if that should be a scum read. Maybe I'll have time before my 3rd and final flight of the day to dig into which slot this is and how Ika fits in with the slot's history.

I saw some things from Flubber that I like.

The PR slip by Team 9 could be genuine, or it could be something else. But lynching them because of it is just plain wasteful if it is their real role -- better to make the mafia NK.

pedit: Another page while I typed this little "still alive and here's what I've seen" post. :eek: :eek:
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Post Post #2958 (isolation #32) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 4:59 am

Post by davesaz »

I don't like any of the cop strategies. Don't see why it's necessary to mess around like that. I can see either town or scum coming up with such a strategy, so it's not necessarily a scum read. Yes, I'm aware that this is a change of heart from my earlier posting on this topic.

Still trying to get my head around all the activity while I was in the air. One thing I can say for sure, a bunch of my reads need re-evaluation. I'll start doing that now, and we'll see how many posts come in that change the re-reads during the time it takes me to do the research. :roll:
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Post Post #2964 (isolation #33) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 5:57 am

Post by davesaz »

Starting in on the research, here is a Thesp summary. Had to start somewhere, no agenda implied by this choice. If anything it's just that this iso has a manageable number of posts. :wink:

Key to 1st char: n=null t=theory q=questions s=takes a stand r=response
Note on "taking a stand" posts -- some of these are taking a stand on the application of theory to this game, most of which are stating that the fake cop claims are bad, lynching the possible doc is bad, etc. I marked the ones which are pure theory as such. Any post which had other content was marked as the other content.

n 1380 - hi - null
n 1432 - catchup post - null
warns that posting on weekends will drop
calls out tn, Sakura Hana, Bins as uninteresting for votes
town reads of varying qualities
should we break the game?
Votes Bulge

t 1434 - cop strategy

t 1436 - cop strategy

t 1438 - cop strategy

q 1847 - cop strategy, lots of questions to players

q 1872 - more questions to players

q 1932 - more questions

r 2023 - response to my response

r 2027 - response to Bins and followup

s 2034 - takes a stand on 22

t 2037 - theory post on town vs scum replacing in, but responding to a jab

s 2041 - comment to bins on why reads have been bad

s 2534 - non-theory comments on cop strategy. comments on inactiveness. comments on fluff

s 2538 - Comment that Bulge won't be lynched. vote Gaiden

s 2539 - cop should be underground

n 2540 - unofficial votecount

s 2542 - doesn't want lynch on 22, and various others. questions Gaiden

s 2582 - against cop claims

s 2589 - bulge wagon comments

s 2599 - calls out ika for read change bulge town->scum. but hasn't seen anything town

s 2605 - calls out 22 and ika for being abrasive. doesn't want wagon on tilt. happier with Gaiden

s 2622 - Possible team9 doc lynch is insane

s 2730 - reiterates lynching possible doc is insane

s 2952 - against cop idea. responds to GreyICE's "Thesp isn't working" post. wants votes moved

r 2957 - more response to GreyICE

3 Null
4 Theory
3 Questions
3 Responses
13 Taking a stand
Iso total 26

I'm happy with the way Thesp is taking a stand against the fake cop claim scheme and against lynching Team 9 just to see if the doc claim was real. I could see town going through that initial questioning period, but could also see scum doing the same to feel out how strong the players being questioned are on their reads. There is a definite progression of type of post. Someone who doesn't distinguish between posts which are pure theory and taking a stand against a bad theory play could easily interpret this as being more than half misdirection. Overall, plausible for either scum or town. Feels a little more town to me, scum should be happy to see systems where PRs might be outed unnecessarily. But it's not an especially strong read.
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Post Post #2966 (isolation #34) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:01 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2962, Team 9 wrote:Sure.
does fake paranoia come from town or scum?


Is this a general question, or do you have something specific in mind? If it's specific, what?

Generally, "fake" is more likely to be scum than town. But I don't know if paranoia fits in that category because double negation might apply. Hence it would matter to me what the context was in determining if it's real paranoia which is being interpreted as fake, or true fake paranoia.

Question back at you -- if something seems paranoid, how do you know whether it's fake or not? And does reading it as fake imply the reader is town or scum?
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Post Post #2967 (isolation #35) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:03 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2965, GreyICE wrote:
In post 2960, Thesp wrote:Is this the question you're referring to? If it is, I suppose I don't know what you're looking for in the question. I've seen scum fake paranoia (I was fooled by it once pretty hard fo' sho'), and there's certainly legitimate paranoia. If that's not the question you want answered, I don't know what you're looking for - could you restate it?

Ooh, can I do question and answer?

Did tn post before the game started in the QT, or are you flying completely blind on your partner's motivations?

If you want to go after non-contributors, where is
Davesaz
on this radar? The man has done literally nothing. Why does he get a pass? Is it because he's your scumbuddy? Because the man is fucking obvious.

If you wanted to name your scumteam, would it be "Captain Obvious and the Obviousteers" or "Oh my fucking god why did I replace in"?


Umm, you do know how to ISO I assume? Perhaps comprehension is the problem? :roll:
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Post Post #2968 (isolation #36) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:07 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2965, GreyICE wrote:
Did tn post before the game started in the QT, or are you flying completely blind on your partner's motivations?


I've noticed this a couple of times and wanted to get clarification. Are you talking about tn(4digit number) or Team 9? Because at least once it looked like you meant T9 and wrote tn. The question comes up because tn(numbers) posts are a bit more rare than Team 9.
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Post Post #2976 (isolation #37) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:29 am

Post by davesaz »

Having a PR and faking being vanilla as a possible exception. But yes I agree.
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Post Post #2980 (isolation #38) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:57 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2978, GreyICE wrote:

So you're adapting pretty well to MS I see, even though you're 2014. First scum game? It's not bad at all.


Nice try, but I'm not falling for that one. I'm town, and this is my first in from the beginning game on MS. I wasn't aware that I'd be catching a ride on the fast train to a possible record breaking D1, and it has been a real chore to keep up with the reading.

I think you're my next ISO target. It will be interesting to see what that reveals. Anyone who can't read me by what I've been posting has to be blind or scum. Reserving judgment, wouldn't want to confbias.
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Post Post #2985 (isolation #39) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:43 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2981, SXTLHGaiden wrote:dave, why does that post ping me as scummy?
WHY?


The post I was replying to was a "triple bind" post. It's designed to make the response took scummy no matter what. Check my profile for a clue as to how I know how to answer it.

Spoiler: definition of triple bind
No reply -- silence is an admission.
Reply "no" -- oh, then it's not your first scum game and you have experience?
Reply "yes" -- aha, thought so.
Reply which avoids the bind -- aha, only scum would see the triple bind to begin with.
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Post Post #2987 (isolation #40) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:48 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2984, Team 9 wrote:
In post 2975, notscience wrote:Fake anything is scummy

In post 2976, davesaz wrote:Having a PR and faking being vanilla as a possible exception. But yes I agree.

Cool.

Now go open up Varsoon's ISO, and see how he have been responding to me after my claim and exactly where did he start bringing up the paranoia of my claim.
Varsoon's paranoia about pr claiming is huge. Do you think his posts fit that huge paranoia?

Answer sheet coming once many people responds to it.

Varsoon was already on my list of people to update reads on. I've been generally unhappy about the responses of several people to your claim. Though also reserving judgment on the claim itself and planning to look at it more closely within the flow of events.
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Post Post #2992 (isolation #41) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:11 am

Post by davesaz »

OK, I ISO'd GreyICE. The snap reads right at the beginning are a little disconcerting, but I didn't see anything that was an immediate cause for concern. Plausible for either alignment but not definitive. Still need to compare to preds.
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Post Post #2993 (isolation #42) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:27 am

Post by davesaz »

My ISO read on Varsoon is scummy as hell, at the body of work level.

I have to go play repairman on the clothes dryer, which quit while I was in China. I'll take the time to quote and dissect later, after I diagnose and hopefully pick up the part.
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Post Post #3001 (isolation #43) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:22 pm

Post by davesaz »

This sequence is one example I'd like to call out.

In post 2737, Varsoon wrote:Come an get me.

In post 2738, notscience wrote:I'm pretty sure that's what the intention behind a vote is

In post 2739, Varsoon wrote:You're gonna have to back that vote up with some justification. Otherwise, when I flip civ, it'll be really hard for you to wiggle out of it.

In post 2740, notscience wrote:Town
me
Bins
Bulge
22slot
ika
Team 9
Thesp
Dave
Bert

Not town
Everyone else

pedit-

Nah

I like a challenge

In post 2742, notscience wrote:This is me acknowledging he will flip town

In post 2743, Bins wrote:
In post 2739, Varsoon wrote:when I flip civ


i think im picky but this irks me

In post 2744, Varsoon wrote:My bad, I slipped.

Varsoon says "flip civ" which is the correct terminology for vanilla.
Then Bins gets upset about it, and Varsoon says it's a slip.

Enough for a case? Not by itself, research continues...
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Post Post #3002 (isolation #44) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:51 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 928, Varsoon wrote:
GUESS WHO HAS RETURNED FROM HIS SLUMBER?

Spoiler:
Image

Imagine my surprise--coming back to a thread and it had 20 new pages. Amazing.
But, on the real, here's some TRUTH:

  • ALL YOU SILLY FOLK SHOULD RELAX, WE'RE HERE TO HAVE A GOOD TIME
    TN AND SAKURA LOOKS LIKE TOWN VERSUS TOWN WALLING TO ME
    Spoiler:
    (I have experience with it, firsthand, especially with Pieguy. It isn't bringing us anywhere and is just kicking up noise for scum to hide in.)

    WHY DID EVERYONE DITCH THE BINS WAGON? BINS ONLY HAD TO CHILL OUT AND YOU ALL FLED FROM IT. SCALLYWAGS!
    READS LISTS. EVERYONE. NOW. EXPLAIN EACH READ WITH AT LEAST ONE SENTENCE.
    Spoiler:
    tn5421 - Town. Walling with Sakura, seems to have lost sight of pretty much erry'thing else. Seems genuinely frustrated.
    SXTLHGaiden - Null-scum. Seems like he's lurking it out, or at least letting louder players duke it while chilling. Was glad someone noticed him, though. I'm iffy, but it feels scum.
    startfromtheheart - Null. Not much coming from this slot. I'd lean it town, but part of me goes 'Varsoon! Stop! Collaborate! And listen!'
    Bitmap - Null-scum. Bitmap's input booooothers me. Feels like Gaiden but a bit more involved and trying not to step on anyone's toes.
    Varsoon - Town.
    Sakura Hana -Town. Is defiantly town, caught in a quagmire.
    Titus - Town. Typical Town Titus. Calm, collected, even when getting wagon'd.
    The Bulge - Null - Literally who?
    Team 9 - Town. Leap of Fate.
    davesaz - Null. Literally who?
    Flubbernugget - Null-Town. Has stuck on the Bins wagon despite being capable of sending other ones over the edge. The late jump onto Bins bothered me at first, esp. in tandem with the NS vote.
    notscience - Null-Scum. Didn't like earlier NS play at all, put it in the scum bucket. Is still arms-length and uninvolved, but doesn't seem spiteful. That hop to the TN wagon looks hella suspect to me.
    Bins - Scum. Chillin like a Villain. It always bothers me when my scum reads call me town, too. It's like an apology bargain--I'll townread you, pls off my wagon.

    I WILL LISTEN TO EMINEM WITH YOU, TITUS.
    I AM ALSO A MAN, BUT MY HEART ALSO GOES DOKI~DOKI~
    SERIOUSLY, THERE IS A CITY THAT THIS DARKNESS CAN NOT HIDE,
    THERE ARE THE EMBERS OF A FIRE THAT'S GONE OUT
    BUT I CAN STILL FEEL THE HEAT ON MY SKIN
    THIS MESS WE'RE IN, WELL YOU AND I,
    MAYBE YOU AND I,
    WE CAN STILL MAKE IT RIGHT.
    MAYBE WE CAN BRING BACK THE LIGHT!

    JOIN ME, IN THE VARSOON COALITION. WE CAN BRING DOWN THE SCUM. SEPARATE, WE ARE WEAK. TOGETHER, WE ARE A BLOC STRONGER THAN ANY SCUM REGIME.


The way we'll form this town bloc is via a WotC voting system:
Everyone has one vote for who goes into the Bloc.
You can not vote for yourself.
You can also cast a vote against exactly one player.
Votes for a player count as 2 points.
Votes against a player count as 1 point.
Maybe there should be a point cutoff to get in?
Help me out here, guys.

Here's how we'll format this:
TOWN BLOC ADD: Team 9

TOWN BLOC REJECT: Bins

CURRENT BLOC STANDINGS:
Team 9: 2point
Bins : -1point


I think this could work.


This town bloc thing bothered me the first time I saw it (on my arrival in China) and still does to an extent. Another thing that bothers me about the post is that the real content (reads and stuff) is inside the spoilers, almost like it was meant to be hidden but easy to bring up as "gee, you didn't bother reading this" if challenged later.
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Post Post #3003 (isolation #45) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 2:55 pm

Post by davesaz »

Damn, it's raining on my steak on the grill :mad:
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Post Post #3006 (isolation #46) » Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:37 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 3004, Varsoon wrote:Dave, that's pretty weak.
I use spoilers to avoid walling.
Spoilers= tags are there for literally everyone to press.
You know what a good way of hiding content is?
Not fucking posting.


Spoilers are fine. What caught me was that the stuff that really matters (the reads) was in the spoilers, and the stuff that really doesn't (the town block BS) was outside. But fair enough, you don't want to wall and I'll admit that this is a good thing, especially with some of the stuff that has shown up in this game.

To be honest, after digging deeper the general impression that I got from just ISOing doesn't hold up well. What had stuck out was the preponderance of posts on mechanics. The town block thing, and the stuff with power roles. Scum want the PRs to slip and reveal themselves, but it's also plausible that vulnerable feeling town might have that same idea. What's your current stand on the various ideas which have been floated re: power roles? Like hiding the cop's results in floods of mass fakeclaims, doctors splitting the list to try to avoid double protecting the claimed cop, etc? Should that type of approach really be tried this early? Is it right to focus there and contribute less to direct analysis?

Surely you can't be accusing me of hiding. So whom is that really directed to? I still have two firm candidates in that direction but there are a bunch of people saying that it's these particular candidates' persona to be quiet. I have no meta to go by and don't necessarily buy the concept that actively inactive people are anything but scummy.

I also have seen at least two candidates for the "scum leading town" role. I'd like to see some original thoughts on that angle, from anyone.
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Post Post #3013 (isolation #47) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:02 am

Post by davesaz »

I figured out who it was that was posting "tn" all the time where it seemed to be directed at Team 9. It was ika. I originally thought Sakura was scum from some statements which read like "Team 9 is town and I support Team 9 so I'm town too, and you have to go along with the PoE because we're town". I could go quote those, and probably will, but I wanted to write this down while I'm thinking about it.

After all the replacement activity, ika was all over Team 9 and didn't really let up during all the cop claim discussion. I can quote that too. Plus a bunch of "shut down discussion" posting which I kinda ignored at the time as replace-in ranting but in hindsight looks very anti-town -- discussion and lynching someone is town's only weapon.

VOTE: ika
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Post Post #3014 (isolation #48) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:06 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2196, ika wrote:VOTE: team 9

kill this with fire.

22 is also prob scum, titus/thesp is town, buldge is town

thats what i have offhand

In post 2211, ika wrote:
In post 2208, Varsoon wrote:I thought we just got a hammer on bulge.


Why is 22 scum with team 9?


no, NS unvoted and revoted

if 22 is scum then team 9 is scum by affiliation

team 9 is scum in general

im willing to lynch either

In post 2222, ika wrote:
In post 2219, startfromtheheart wrote:Hi Ika

First time playing a forum game with u yay

Also this bulge wagon is not my favorite and I wish it would die down


join me on 22/team 9 then

i hope that we can have fun

p-edit: prob b/c they are scum ive already stated my case


No case was stated at all. None! The very first post was Team 9 is scum, with
no discussion
.
I ignored it at the time, thinking it was just brash style. (Part of the reason I ignored it was also that I have thought, at various times throughout this marathon day, that Team 9 may indeed be scum, but that's something that can be taken care of later)
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Post Post #3015 (isolation #49) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:11 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2236, ika wrote:hey team9 question, do you mind a cop checking you?

In post 2242, ika wrote:
In post 2238, Team 9 wrote:
In post 2236, ika wrote:hey team9 question, do you mind a cop checking you?

Yes. I am currently discussing with pieguy about how to somehow fit a miller claim in this setup.


thank you for confirming your scum status

VOTE: team 9

22 will be next. cop can check to confirm it and i would peg it with TN. i will have to look later

p-edit: they are scum vote them. its obvious bins is town if they flip scum

p-edit 2: you too buldge vote them (unless you already are)


I'm pretty sure that Team 9's reply was intended as a joke. It's an open setup and Team 9 had to be aware at this point that ika had jumped in first post with a baseless vote. Meanwhile ika starts trying to direct traffic, still based on a nothing case.
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Post Post #3016 (isolation #50) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:06 am

Post by davesaz »

One more serving, then I have to work.

In post 2299, ika wrote:@start join me on team 9 we can get 22 tommorw.

@bins, join us as well

p-edit: just let ns deal with it, he will prob come around later

p-edit 2: fine then vote park but its not getting lynched anytime soon

In post 2312, ika wrote:
In post 2306, Bins wrote:Ika, it's important because notty is voting because of it.

And Gaiden, do you like the too scummy to be scum persona or something?


notty isnt goign to budge apparently, think of it as unstpoable force meets immovable object

In post 2307, SXTLHGaiden wrote:I'm more of a "Troll everyone until death becomes a shockingly likely outcome"


hey do me a favor and vote team 9 they are scumbutts and need to be lynched

i already solved the game for us

p-edit: im now randomly going to shout his name to just summon him for lolz and time how long it takes

p-edit 2: POE

In post 2417, ika wrote:
In post 2416, 22 wrote:I read your posts. I didn't see it.

You claim a case, please link it. Your ISO is only 50 posts long. If it's there, shouldn't be too hard to post it again.
You explained how Titus doesn't replace out. Ergo, her replacing out is not alignment-indicative. Unless you'd like to posit that any game Titus is still in necessitates Titus scum.
I'm saying she's scum from the whole "stop the violence" position. Which has already been plainly stated. So you're complete misrepping at this point.

You're the one who brings up IRL as a reason to townread. I'm only offering the logical counterargument.


Present the 22 Scumcase.


your not making me budge from my stance, i will just ignore you until further notice. read the entire game

In post 2561, ika wrote:just an announcement when we do cop claims d2 it is to be your first post

In post 2591, ika wrote:here ill save time thesp:

i have full intent o hammer. if this entire fuckign day is going to be over bludge i rather just lynch him and remove it so we dont have day 2 going "oh buldges i here, oh buldge is here" shit

In post 2609, ika wrote:given the fact im subconsouly aware of the tinyest hints of anyones role makes me all the more annnoyed

In post 2648, ika wrote:let just lynch 22 and ignore team 9 untill further notice

VOTE: 22

bins joint me, bludge join me on this wagon

In post 2656, ika wrote:know what fuck you guys lets to this then

VOTE: tn

buldge read the damn game. they claimed doc. they have a deathwish on their head alredy if they live we turbo-lynch

In post 2663, ika wrote:
In post 2660, Team 9 wrote:
In post 2647, Bins wrote:Impossible fucking battles.

It's not impossible battle. It's an im passe.
Like, check my ISO. There should be 3 pages. Check page 3. Read that page. Do you see me pushing the Bulge in that whole page? No.
I've been asking how the gaps in the bulge's thought process can possibly come from town. I even singled out when the Bulge wanted a short list of why I think he' s scum.
Instead of answering my question, people have been just yelling at me for "OMG BULGE IS TOWN BECAUSE HOW FRUSTRATED HE LOOKS SDFKLJASDLKFJDSKLFJDLSKF"


HOW ABOUT THIS: IS HIS MINDSET TOWN? ignore thought process. ignore logic, think mindset.

i have been lynched before b/c i was illogical but others defended me b/c i have a town mindset

lets have 3rd wheel wagon on tn instead.

In post 2683, ika wrote:can we lynch tn? and sort you guys out tommorow?

In post 2715, ika wrote:
In post 2714, Team 9 wrote:
In post 2711, Bins wrote:Fucking hell, can't we just get you cop investigated or something? I don't want to lynch the MAYBE doctor.

In post 2712, SXTLHGaiden wrote:
In post 2711, Bins wrote:Fucking hell, can't we just get you cop investigated or something? I don't want to lynch the MAYBE doctor.

I'd rather get mislynched than stay as a Cassandra in this game any more minutes thank you very much.


you can always replace out?

In post 2750, ika wrote:
In post 2749, tn5421 wrote:
In post 2746, ika wrote:
WHILE I HAVE EVERYONES ATTENTOIN:

Do a read list of the players


It doesnt have to be some fucking novel, but just stae them why. I dont want to hear any bickering on a persons reads either.


I will start:

22/tn/flubber are my suspects for their general posting and the case i haev presented.

i could see a wird chance of bins being scum as well


Where is the 'case' that you have presented then?


i am ignoring you untill further notice.

also if either bulge or t9 come out here and bicker again i will pull out the ultimate anti-town thing: outing the cop


More directing traffic, and here's the place where Team 9 starts getting referred to by tn. I can see the point of thinking the claim could be bogus, but you take care of that type of problem later.

Lest you think I'm confbiasing, feel free to iso and see for yourself. There isn't a whole lot of other stuff to exclude to this point -- well, a little flipping between 22 and Team 9 as the biggest scum, and perhaps a side trip, but then back again.

My conference call is starting and I'm the moderator. And I don't know how many posts in a row is too many, so I'll stop here.
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Post Post #3019 (isolation #51) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:31 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3017, ika wrote:GL with that case dave

At least I post evidence. The meta doesn't exist for me, and it seems that's all about half the people in this cluster fuck use.
What are you basing your reads on? :roll:
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Post Post #3022 (isolation #52) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:44 am

Post by davesaz »

Rolehunt? Using what as a basis? You have to be able to point to it so that other people can see it.
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Post Post #3023 (isolation #53) » Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:46 am

Post by davesaz »

Also, it "being what you do" doesn't excuse it being scummy looking. You even admit it's anti-town.
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Post Post #3150 (isolation #54) » Mon Sep 08, 2014 8:14 am

Post by davesaz »

My internet went down and you beat me to it. Was going to quote those same posts.

VOTE: The Bulge

Let's not get carried away on a quick lynch though, healthy discussion might help with finding the 3rd scum.
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Post Post #3242 (isolation #55) » Tue Sep 09, 2014 3:59 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3163, GreyICE wrote:
In post 3160, Varsoon wrote:Wait, why the dave wagon?

I see IKA and Bulge as fair scummier. ika's absolute town-defense on Titus coupled with death-tunneling the claimed doc until theSP wagon seemed inevitable. Couple that with the weird mention of SP maybe being a cop earlier makes me think it wouldn't be too weird for a scum team to have an idea for fake-claiming cop, but for ika to bus there.

To be absolutely fair, I was wrong about Team 9 not being a doctor, so I don't really trust my judgment as much as I should.
Kinda fucks me over, too.
Oh well.

WHAT WAS YOUR INVESTIGATE

As for Dave, he claimed fucking scum. Read his last post.

In post 3164, startfromtheheart wrote:
In post 3150, davesaz wrote:My internet went down and you beat me to it. Was going to quote those same posts.

VOTE: The Bulge

Let's not get carried away on a quick lynch though, healthy discussion might help with finding the 3rd scum.


Yep, grey is right.

"Finding the 3rd scum"

Only one scum is dead.


One dead
One Bulge
one unknown

Granted, that's assuming Bulge is scum, but reading what I write is not rocket science.
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Post Post #3243 (isolation #56) » Tue Sep 09, 2014 4:04 am

Post by davesaz »

UNVOTE:
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Post Post #3271 (isolation #57) » Wed Sep 10, 2014 8:56 am

Post by davesaz »

Why are you people sheeping this idiot? When I flip town, hopefully you'll know what to do.
You can't just follow someone who makes a "case" on lols like that.

VOTE: GreyICE

I'm also still very suspicious of Gaiden. It could be the scum on my wagon is 2nd instead of 1st. Start was giving me the creeps for a while, but has at least appeared to try the last couple of RL days. Varsoon gets a pass for a day or two on the claim, I guess.
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Post Post #3577 (isolation #58) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 11:21 am

Post by davesaz »

So, first completed game and wrong on just about everything...

That's a year of posts for the whole mafia form where I played before. :eek:
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Post Post #3581 (isolation #59) » Sun Sep 14, 2014 5:42 pm

Post by davesaz »

I got the largest mini edit. Someone beat me to the largest day 1 edit.
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