NY 178: MASQUERADE -- GAME OVER

[Izariael]

Let's add josh to the shaky category.

I would be most happy with a beastcharizard lynch right now. He is actively not trying to contribute.
VOTE: beast

I so hope gm somehow confirms thor's claim s we can flashwagon this

Where the heck was this activity and decision even 24 hours ago and why the sudden shift to Beast?

Uh... Tier was on V/LA. Until today. So that's where it was.

[Izariael]

Ehhh... I'll get behind this. He's had enough grace period to pull something together and has procured nothing.

VOTE: beastcharizard

I don't understand your reaction given that we were in agreement earlier that the way he's lurking is scummy. Has your opinion on beast changed? I would have thought you of all people would be pleased to see this wagon take traction.

[Izariael]

Boons is a claimed BP and lynchbait. If he's town then scum prob think he's telling the truth and they won't waste bullets on him (and will thus try to get him lynched) I don't think its some cray cray thought process that he expects to live. And thats why I think IZ calling your post a gem looks like whiteknighting to me.

Huh? Boon's post had a distinct sense of "I don't need to do anything until we get to LyLo, and then that's when I'll do something" based on the conversation that was had. Axle brought forward the point that town's goal shouldn't BE to hit LyLo. We should be aiming to nail scum sooner than LyLo if possible. I liked the thought process that this was the perspective he chose to comment from rather than to sustain a hypothetical LyLo scenario.

[Izariael]

I don't understand your reaction given that we were in agreement earlier that the way he's lurking is scummy. Has your opinion on beast changed? I would have thought you of all people would be pleased to see this wagon take traction.

It's more just that, apparently, he's your second top read.

I was pushing him as a potential compromise when I was trying to see if I could get a counter going to myself (I couldn't).

That you leap from top scumread Thor to compromise lurker equates to a face, yes.

Yes. This. Do you remember our earlier conversation? We came to (what I think) was an agreement that his lurking was scummy and yet others were willing to let it slide. However, I said that I was hesitant to support a lynch on him. The reason why is exactly as you said: I felt you were trying to get him going as a counter to yourself. (Which I did not state) Scum and Town-Thor would both have reason to push for the beast lynch, though scum-Thor moreso. The other reason being that I felt his lynch would be far less informative of the overall game state than that of a more active player (which I did state)

Also, we're at a MASQUERADE, so I've just thought that was what your mask looked like. I didn't realize it was what your face was doing under the mask. Suddenly every statement you've made makes sense now.

[Izariael]

VOTE: Nero Cain

I really don't see a Thor lynch succeeding even though I think it's town's best lynch today...

And I don't like the Dave lynch.

Dave vs. Nero is really not how I thought this day would end.

[Izariael]

Iz why ? How was his push on Thor then vote on GM and the back to Thor cause test town like ?

Because I've liked enough of Dave's contributions that I'm not interested in lynching him.

As for the gm/Thor votes, I read it as a somewhat clumsy attempt to gauge Thor's alignment. We had Thor saying "oh I'll claim when it's L-1 with hammer intent" and then sitting on a gm vote that was going nowhere. Dave voted gm, asked Thor how confident he was that she was scum, then changed vote to Thor after getting his answer.

I don't think Dave ever had intention of pushing the gm wagon or of lynching gm

, though my read on the situation would certainly change if I felt that were the case.

Can you refresh the case against GM? I want to see what you point out and compare that to other material where alignment is known.

For me,

I just find the slot useless

and a better lynch than me due to useless.
That's also my case on Beast.

Really? And you expect anyone to vote that?

Tell me again, what are your contributions other than yelling very loudly?
I mean, is it really that much of a distinction that people listen? Last I heard by way of vote count, fewer were listening to you than GM.

Really? And you expect anyone to vote that?
Tell me again, what are your contributions other than yelling very loudly?
I mean, is it really that much of a distinction that people listen? Last I heard by way of vote count, fewer were listening to you than GM.

My contributions are not sitting around doing nothing and acting like it means something.

*snippage*
((To Scripten))

Why not vote GM now and make the game more exciting?

<Dave thinks some in the shower>
CLICK!


VOTE: goodmorning

Reason: Gamestate ephiphany

Thor, how certain are you that GM is the right player to wagon at this time?

Just a sniff, rock solid, somewhere in between?

Board

bored frustration.

I understood it as him aiming to see if Thor could practice what he preached. Thor has kept touting that he's pushing wagons actively, yet his vote on gm was doing literally nothing. He just sat there asking people to vote for gm to "make the game more exciting" or "to see what happens" despite saying he was only interested in lynching her because he found her useless. I think dave was aiming to see if Thor would push it harder with another vote on the wagon and with his wagon still leading in votes. But then Thor's reaction was very ho-hum, which was not what Dave saw coming from town/unclaimed PR. Then there was the consideration that if he doesn't find gm scummy, then why was he voting for her? Thor has been expressing discontent over voting for townreads, and encouraging us to push scumreads, but is okay with parking a vote on what seems like a null read for no other reason than "she's useless and therefore a better lynch than me"? I think this is what Dave took objection to?

I don't agree with his method, but I think I understood what he was aiming for.

I haven't deemed this exchange to be scum-indicative or alignment-indicative

as you have because I think there's some ambiguity on both his and Thor's sides of the exchange.

[Izariael]

though my read on the situation would certainly change if I felt that were the case.

Just clarifying?
You town read GM so strongly that people trying to lynch him read as scum?
is that what that bit means?

or was it specific to Dave?

It was specific to dave and his actions in this exchange. I deemed the gm vote as an attempt to gauge a reaction from Thor, and not as a legitimate vote for gm in the interest of lynching her. My interpretation of that vote has a big impact on how I view the situation.

I did consider the possibility that it was a legit gm vote, and drew what conclusion that would lead me to, but found that his statements indicated the alternative

[Izariael]

@Iz I mean his way in general.

He admitted he didnt quite know why he was pushing thor and unvoted.

Didnt the gm thing seem like an excuse reason to revote thor without having to explain the previous stuff ?

Was there more to this than 3798? Because I found that to be a rather holistic transition and it didn't bother me at all...

[Izariael]

No, not voting dave.

Forget who it is and what you think of him.

Would you like to vote the same person I am?

.... eh?

[Izariael]

Thor, given that Scripten was voting beast at end of day yesterday, why are you still pointing at beast? What about the night events points to beast as scum?

[Izariael]

I find it unlikely that beast vote was a bus vote, if that wasn't made clear already.

[Izariael]

I find it unlikely that beast vote was a bus vote, if that wasn't made clear already.

Though Iz that doesnt mean Beast cannot be maf. They can be opposing faction.

Ofc, but I'm waiting to see beast's promised plethora of pro-town activity that he was promising at end of day 2 first. Hence why I asked Thor if it was night events or resulta that made him think scum-beast. It's possible it wasn't based on Scripten's flip at all.

[Izariael]

Thor, given that Scripten was voting beast at end of day yesterday, why are you still pointing at beast? What about the night events points to beast as scum?

Hence why I asked Thor if it was night events or resulta that made him think scum-beast. It's possible it wasn't based on Scripten's flip at all.

I really don't think that is what you were asking. It reads like you were implying he shouldn't think Beast is scum due to the Script flip.

no, I had implied that *I* had made a connection between Scripten vote and beast alignment. I don't think they were aligned. That does not negate beast from being scum, though it does negate him from being a werewolf faction. I asked Thor what was leading him to scum!beast based on night 2 events/flips. I don't know if it was based on Scripten flip or not. Hence, I asked.

[Izariael]

Thoughts?

Yes, I think there is a limited vig in play who may or may not have shot at Boon on night one. I think the Boon shot from a Vig is unlikely though, since he as softing a protective role on Day One, and an incorrect Vig shot there would remove a town PR. Risk outweighs the rewards.

I think there were 2 kill shots on one, and three on night 2.

[Izariael]

2 kill shots on night 1**

[Izariael]

*at least it's something...*

Care to share how/why you have those reads? Treat us to some transparency, since you've had none all game. Kthxbai.

[Izariael]

Slandaar, Axle and Josh?

[Izariael]

Reinoe is just scum. Call it gut or whatever you want they just give me no town vibes what so ever.

Thor is leaning town because of how Reinoe treats them. I don't see them being partners together.

goodmorning is interaction with Reinoe. At least one of the people in Reinoe's big question post around when they first came in has to be scum. We have eliminated Thor by interaction and goodmorning fits the bill greatly.

So you've scumread reinoe from gutfeels, then felt comfortable listing Thor and goodmorning as leaning town and scum respectively because of their interactions with said scumread? There's nothing at all from either of them that you felt was alignment-indicative? They've both been far more active than reinoe, seeing as reinoe was a slot replacement. What about Day 1 stuff from gm/Thor?

[Izariael]

Slandaar, if Boon is scum, could you walk me through your interpretation of night 1 and night 2 events? Also, how do his day 1 softclaims play into this? Is it a gambit?

[Izariael]

OK I will do that after you tell me why the N1 and N2 events affect anything in terms of Boons alignment?

I don't understand this answer to what was a relatively simple question. It might change things, it might not.

Shinobi;
Boon BP scum shot n1 by a vig. Seems plausible to me.
Boon BP scum shot n1 by opposing scum. This is just as plausible as town Boon being shot by scum.
Boon BP SK shot by scum or vig. Plausible too.
etc.

Even if he was shot n1 it doesn't mean anything in terms of his alignment.

See? That wasn't so hard...

So your thought is that Boon was not lying about bulletproof, just his alignment. Do you think he lied about being X-Shot? 2-shot BP scum seems unusual...

[Izariael]

You'll all be happy to know that I got a not-mafia result on boonskies. Because that's how cops in multi-ball get results. Not in the forM of "guilty" "not guilty".

Actually, based on the cop wiki, it's up to mod discretion:

Variations

The exact wording of the Cop's result is not standardized, with the following options being most common.

Mafia/Not Mafia

- This only checks if the target is Mafia-aligned. Werewolves, Serial Killers or other third-party members thus have implicit investigation immunity.
Town/Not Town - All non-Town players will return an incriminating result, even if they are benign in practice (e.g. Survivor or other third parties with nonstandard Win Conditions).

Guilty/Not Guilty

- Non-Town roles return incriminating or non-incriminating results depending on the moderator's decision.

I'm still unsure what to make of the two claims, but I felt it was necessary to point out that beast's claim is not invalidated by producing "guilty"/"not guilty" results as you stated.

[Izariael]

Why is my font so small...

[Izariael]

See? That wasn't so hard...

That was not an answer to your question. You asked me what I thought happened I was simply explaining to Shinobi If Boon is BP and was shot n1 then this has no relevance on his alignment.

So your thought is that Boon was not lying about bulletproof, just his alignment. Do you think he lied about being X-Shot? 2-shot BP scum seems unusual...

I think he is probably telling the truth about being BP, yes, he might have lied about being 2 shot more likely 1 shot who claimed 2 shot in case he was shot n1.

I tell you what I will answer your terrible question and there better be a point to all of this.

I think there are too many possibilities which are all plausible especially n1 but also on n2 in other words I don't really have an opinion on what happened and thinking about it is a complete waste of time.

I suspect you have a most likely scenario about what happened though which somehow has some relevance to Boon's alignment?

Perhaps it was poor phrasing of the original question, but I think I got the answer anyway. I wasn't interested in evaluating Boon's alignment, per se. I was interested in seeing what you felt were the cumulative kill-shots for nights one/two (i.e. was Boon shot night one or not/BP claim fake or real). Boon's alignment, and your opinion of his alignment, while relevant, were not the focus of my question.

[Izariael]

If Reinoe doesn't flip scum then I will self-vote and park my vote their for the rest of the game.

Given that this would be working against your own win condition (as town) this is a rather empty promise that holds no weight.

[Izariael]

Perhaps it was poor phrasing of the original question

Perhaps.

So, you have my answer and we will go along with Boon's alignment not being important. What have you gained from my answer? what were you looking for? what do you think happened during the nights?

I was looking for some insight on what you felt were the events of night 1/2. Obviously scum-Boon would need to fit in there somewhere, so I was curious to see how your speculation differed from mine and if it was having any bearing on your read of him.

Personally, I think Boon likely wasn't shot on night one. I think that we are in a multiball situation given the WW flip, where we have two scumteams that are smaller in numbers but balanced power-wise (possibly asymmetrical scumteams since werewolf flip was a goon). WW/SK is a possibility still, but I find it unlikely for very arbitrary reasons. It's still something to consider and I'm leaving the option open for now.

I have no idea which parties targetted whom on nights 1/2, but I do think there were only 2 kill shots made on night 1, while 3 were made on night 2. Whether TierShift was a main kill target last night or died using bodyguard ability to save someone is not known, though I think he may have died protecting Thor given the failed lynch on him and TierShift's strong townread of him in the latter half of the day.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
**Somewhat on-topic**

For claimed PRs, we have the following:

2-shot bulletproof (claimed; Boon)
1-shot jailkeeper (claimed; Thor)
Even-night cop (claimed by both beast and reinoe)

I doubt all of the above claims are town (and certainly one between beast/reinoe is lying, right?) given that we have the following:

Town JOAT (bodyguard/commuter) Tiershift
Vigilante (I'm speculating that it's limited, hence why I don't think Boon was shot on night one. I don't think there was a Vigi shot at all on night 1)

[Izariael]

In other news, Izariael's 4933 feels like he knows far much more than he should. That is what originally had me scum reading him Night 1 in our neighborhood, and this is the reason why I am lingering scum reading him. I also don't like how he obviously wants to get rid of me, yet doesn't want a push on me. That's probably only seen majorly from my perspective, as I'm the one he's referring to, and the one where he will NOT be able to get rid of me.

First of all, it's a thing called speculation. I don't claim to know 100% what happened. I'm offering what I think to be the most likely occurrence of events. You keep spinning it as though I'm saying "this is absolutely what happened" rather than "this is what I think happened". Stop. Please. It's getting annoying.

Second, I'm not pushing for your lynch. I'm really not interested in pushing you at all at this moment beyond getting your facts straight. I posted a series of roleclaims that have been made, and again, SPECULATED that not all of those claims were truthful or town-aligned.

I did not say "none of them are town/true".

**Somewhat on-topic**

For claimed PRs, we have the following:

2-shot bulletproof (claimed; Boon)
1-shot jailkeeper (claimed; Thor)
Even-night cop (claimed by both beast and reinoe)

I doubt all of the above claims are town

(and certainly one between beast/reinoe is lying, right?) given that we have the following:

Town JOAT (bodyguard/commuter) Tiershift
Vigilante (I'm speculating that it's limited, hence why I don't think Boon was shot on night one. I don't think there was a Vigi shot at all on night 1)

The bolded means that I don't think ALL FOUR of these claims are town. It does

not

mean:
-all four of these claims are NOT TOWN
-I am singling out Boon as the liar amongst the four claims. Lynch him.

[Izariael]

For claimed PRs, we have the following:

2-shot bulletproof (claimed; Boon)
1-shot jailkeeper (claimed; Thor)
Even-night cop (claimed by both beast and reinoe)

I doubt all of the above claims are town

(and certainly one between beast/reinoe is lying, right?) given that we have the following:

Town JOAT (bodyguard/commuter) Tiershift
Vigilante (I'm speculating that it's limited, hence why I don't think Boon was shot on night one. I don't think there was a Vigi shot at all on night 1)

Boon, if I had meant to say "

zero of these four claims are town

", then I would have said "

I doubt any of the above claims are town

". My statement instead indicates that I don't think four out of four claims are town (given that we have confirmed JOAT and unclaimed vigi)

Do you now understand?

[Izariael]

....... TSO ilu.

[Izariael]

Your hood is you, Iz, GM, shiro and who?

The departed Aneninen

[Izariael]

If I am lynched for some dumb reason, yall are going to flash lynch Reinoe tomorrow right?

If you flip even night cop - clearly yes.
If not - clearly no.

Why even ask this?

Perhaps the same reason that he promised to self-vote through the end of the game if reinoe didn't flip scum.... leverage.

[Izariael]

In other news, Izariael's 4933 feels like he knows far much more than he should. That is what originally had me scum reading him Night 1 in our neighborhood, and this is the reason why I am lingering scum reading him. I also don't like how he obviously wants to get rid of me, yet doesn't want a push on me. That's probably only seen majorly from my perspective, as I'm the one he's referring to, and the one where he will NOT be able to get rid of me.

First of all, it's a thing called speculation. I don't claim to know 100% what happened. I'm offering what I think to be the most likely occurrence of events. You keep spinning it as though I'm saying "this is absolutely what happened" rather than "this is what I think happened". Stop. Please. It's getting annoying.

Second, I'm not pushing for your lynch. I'm really not interested in pushing you at all at this moment beyond getting your facts straight.

I posted a series of roleclaims that have been made, and again, SPECULATED that not all of those claims were truthful or town-aligned. I did not say "none of them are town/true".

**Somewhat on-topic**


The bolded means that I don't think ALL FOUR of these claims are town. It does

not

mean:
-all four of these claims are NOT TOWN
-

I am singling out Boon as the liar amongst the four claims. Lynch him.

What part of "it does not mean" didn't you understand?

I fail to see the purpose of this post unless you misunderstood my post.

[Izariael]

Lynching me is against town win con

since I am the town cop but ok.

If Reinoe doesn't flip scum then

I will self-vote and park my vote their for the rest of the game.

I don't think Redirector counts as normal so that is not an option for why I got a guilty.

You can't seriously be expecting this to fly.

To call reinoe out on AtE as you did is laughable given that you are using it yourself:

@guy who said my promise was antitown:

I need to get people to understand I am not lying and to lunch the scum. I am trying everything I can think of and yet we are still not lunging reinoe.

Look at this ATE right here.

[Izariael]

Votecount 3.5

[5]

beastcharizard:

Thor665, reinoe, Shiro, AxleGreaser, Boonskiies
[5]

reinoe:

beastcharizard, Slandaar, Nero Cain, Josh_B, Flubbernugget
[1]

Thor665:

goodmorning

[1]

Not Voting:

Izariael, T S O

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

I'm kind of stuck in an awkward spot at the moment because it seems like that whichever player I vote between reinoe/beast will likely get hammered. I haven't voted yet because I've been intent on evaluating which claim is more likely fabricated...

[Izariael]

Bleh post formatting.

[Izariael]

How are you evaluating them?
I see no effort in that regard and would love to see you show your work.

Well, given that it's been a week of holiday festivites and overtime work with Black Friday and Cyber Monday, I've been busier than usual and haven't had much time for posting. I have tried to keep up with reading though.

I'm currently in favour of a beast lynch, though beast's comment of being of use tomorrow does ring as a valid claim. However, I do see rolecop on a non-town team as a distinct possibility and fits in with the sequence of events imo.

[Izariael]

I do not think he was. Like scum is a catchall for anything that is anti-town. I and several players use that. A werewolf faction is STILL a mafia faction 'cause its a scum faction. I could see Beast being non specific and calling you mafia.

...what.

a=c
b=c
a=b

is totally correct in math.
But this is not math.

WW=Scum
Mafia=Scum
Alien=Scum
Goo=Scum
WW=/=Mafia
WW=/=Alien
WW=/=Goo

and so forth.

Like, the kitchen is a room, and the bathroom is a room, but the kitchen is not the bathroom and what i am trying to say is

what the fuck

ilu gm.

[Izariael]

VOTE: beastcharizard

There's still room for

both

to be scum, but I think beast is more likely of the two to be scum.

[Izariael]

So... here's a thought I've been chewing on. What if we lynched

neither beast nor reinoe

? I'm beginning to think that scum benefits more from this lynch pool than town does. There's no way they are aligned together, which means that one or both of them is scum, so leaving them both alive today keeps more possibility of cross-kills tonight, which is really something that town needs right now. I think we've reached a critical point of the game where scum (certainly the wolves after losing a member) are going to need to target each other tonight.

VOTE: Slandaar

Here's my suggestion for an alternative.

[Izariael]

goodmorning, Town Tracker Neighbor, has been killed Night 3.

VOTE: Thor

There's no way gm was tunneling that hard unless something was up with him. No way in hell.

[Izariael]

I don't see what was so bogus about Muffin's statement. His whole thing was that Thor was artificially prolonging a debate when the simple solution would have shut down the whole accusation.

Regardless, Muffin aside, what do you think of goodmorning, who was a town tracker, repeatedly taking a tunnel stance that Thor is scum to the extent that she did? You seem quick to brush that aside in favour of your own tunnel.

[Izariael]

Thor was artificially prolonging a debate when the simple

solution

explanation would have shut down the whole accusation.

EBWOP.

[Izariael]

My god, this game is making me want to garotte myself.

Gm spoke of Thor not only in thread but also in neighborhood. I'm quite certain that if there's one result she got, it was on Thor and it was incriminatory.

She admitted to previously playing as scum with scum!Thor in our hood. I can't recall if she mimicked the thought in-thread, because holy crap there's infinite posts. Her tone read on day 1 was meta based on her previous experience with Thor, and though she admitted it was limited it set the groundwork for her suspicions.

Like... she vote-parked him yesterday for the entirety of Day 3 even after fully stating that she was in favor of a beast lynch. There was opportunity to vote/hammer two separate slots yesterday, but she chose instead to stay parked on a Thor vote.

4739/4818 are posts that show a pretty concrete stance on the matter.

[Izariael]

Prod dodge.

I'll be catching up on past few pages at lunch break